* 3:08 pm - From Mayor Rahm Emanuel…
This afternoon I received a letter from Alderman Sandi Jackson tendering her resignation from City Council, effective January 15th.
As Sandi takes this time to focus on her family, we give her our deepest thanks and support for her service to our City and the residents of her ward. Her leadership has been greatly appreciated in the Chicago City Council.
The process to identify a replacement for Alderman Jackson to serve and represent the residents of Chicago’s 7th ward will be announced early next week.
Ald. Jackson’s resignation letter can be read by clicking here.
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* The ads attacking Congressman Aaron Schock over his vote for the “fiscal cliff” resolution are more widespread than first reported…
The ads have been running on Fox News stations on cable systems across the 18th Congressional District, said Steve Shearer, Schock’s chief of staff. Similar radio ads have also been running in the district from the same sponsoring group — Jobs & Progress Fund.
An official of WICS-TV in Springfield said the group has purchased $34,300 worth of time combined on that Springfield broadcast station and its sister station in Champaign, WICD. Those ads started running Wednesday and are scheduled to continue through Jan. 26, said Jennifer Valenti, local sales manager at WICS. […]
In a radio ad being played in Springfield, a man and woman are talking about Schock. The man says that Schock “sided with the liberals and raised taxes.”
“Unbelievable,” the woman says.
* Schock’s office has sent a letter to stations demanding that they stop running the ads…
The passage of H.R. 8 on January 1st cut taxes significantly. Indeed, the universally respected and non-partisan Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office each scored H.R. 8 as nearly a four trillion dollar revenue decrease over the next decade. […]
Your station is hereby on notice that the Advertisement makes false statements intended to deliberately deceive Illinois voters and defame Congressman Schock’s reputation. Based on the foregoing, we respectfully demand that your station immediately cease the airing of this false and misleading Advertisement.
*** UPDATE *** From Congressman Schock’s office…
STARadio Quincy, parent company of QuincyJournal.com, has received a cease and desist letter from lawyers for Aaron Schock regarding the ad. STARadio Vice President and General Manager Mike Moyers says the company will comply and not accept a scheduled ad buy for next week.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* The more calls I make, the more I’m starting to think he might be serious this time around…
Sneed has learned former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley has commissioned the prestigious polling firm of Anzalone Liszt, which does polling for President Barack Obama and Illinois Senate President John Cullerton, to determine his viability in a race for governor of Illinois.
“We are hoping he’ll run, but the polls will tell all,” said a top Dem source.
Sneed is told the results of the poll will be released soon, although a call to the Montgomery, Ala., firm would not officially confirm or deny Sneed’s tip.
We’ll see.
* Meanwhile…
Last fall’s general election in Illinois saw $1.6 million in independent expenditures in targeted races for 15 House and 16 Senate seats, more than $900,000 of which was used negatively to oppose candidates, according to a January report by the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform.
The top five committees reporting the most independent expenditures, according to the report, were: JOBS PAC ($412,932), Personal PAC ($334,392), National Association of Realtors ($232,500), Liberty Principles PAC ($215,168), and GOPAC Illinois Legislative Fund ($186,524).
All told, those five committees spent the bulk of all independent expenditures while achieving success in only 12 of the 31 races they targeted. Out of all independent expenditures, the SuperPACs only had success in 19 of 77 races.
While independent expenditures only made up about 5.5% of the $29.4 million that candidates reported raising in the fall’s targeted legislative races, David Morrison, deputy director of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform, predicted a larger SuperPAC role in 2014 statewide elections.
“We have some experience with these but not at the state and local level,” Morrison said at an Illinois Campaign Finance Reform Task Force hearing Thursday. “We expect to see significant SuperPAC involvement in the governor’s race.”
There will definitely be bigtime SuperPAC involvement in 2014. Bet on it.
* Here’s the list of the top spenders in legislative races, according to ICPR’s interim report…
The JOBS PAC $412,932
Personal PAC Independent Committee $334,392
National Association of REALTORS® Fund $232,500
Liberty Principles PAC $215,168
GOPAC Illinois Legislative Fund $186,524
For the Good of Illinois PAC $78,430
Republican State Leadership Committee- IE Com $74,799
Citizens for a Better Quincy $60,000
Illinois Immigrant Action PAC $22,378
Adam for IL Committee (Adam Andrzejewski) $20,000
* One of the biggest winners was Personal PAC…
Illinois Immigrant Action PAC was another big winner…
Liberty Principles PAC was a big loser…
From the report…
Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Proft filed the Statement of Organization for Liberty Principles with the State Board of Elections and also filed a statement of organization with the Federal Elections Commission. […]
Most of the receipts reported by the federal Liberty Principles PAC came from two donors: Richard Uihlein at $125,000 (of Uline Industries, his giving includes $50,000 received on March 20 and disclosed on April 12, $50,000 received on August 24 and disclosed on October 15, and $25,000 received on October 29 and disclosed on December 6) and real estate developer John Buck at $100,000 (received on June 29 and disclosed on July 12). All told, the federal PAC received $65,500 prior to Election Day that was not reported to the public until one month afterwards.
* And the Justice Department is suing the State Board of Elections over the 2nd Congressional District special primary…
The U.S. Department of Justice is suing the Illinois State Board of Elections, saying it hasn’t allowed enough time for military personnel serving overseas to know who they can vote for in the special election to replace U.S. Rep Jesse Jackson.
By law, overseas U.S. voters were supposed to receive by Saturday absentee ballots that include the names of all qualified candidates’ for the Second Congressional District primary, the federal lawsuit filed late Thursday says.
But snafus mean they aren’t likely to receive the full printed ballots for at least another two weeks, it’s alleged.
Though federal law requires that overseas voters receive their ballots 45 days before the Feb. 26 primary, state law gives candidates until Monday to challenge their rivals’ nominating papers. Those challenges could take the state another two weeks to deal with, leaving overseas voters less than half the time they’re supposed to have to vote, the lawsuit says.
In an attempt to get around the federal law, Gov. Pat Quinn signed a state amendment in December that required overseas voters be sent blank “write in” ballots by Saturday — but the Justice Department says that won’t fly.
It wants a federal judge to intervene to ensure that overseas voters’ rights are protected and that their votes are counted — though the lawsuit doesn’t specify how that should happen or whether the primary should be delayed.
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* From Fitch…
Fitch Ratings has placed the ‘A’ rating on the general obligation (GO) bonds of the State of Illinois on Rating Watch Negative. The rating action affects approximately $26.2 billion in outstanding GO bonds of the state. Ratings linked to the state GO rating, listed at the end of this release, have also been placed on Rating Watch Negative.
The Rating Watch Negative reflects the ongoing inability of the state to address its large and growing unfunded pension liability, most recently through the failure to pass pension reform in the ‘lame duck’ portion of the 97th general assembly legislature that ended on Jan. 8. Fitch believes that the burden of large unfunded pension liabilities and growing annual pension expenses is unsustainable. The Rating Watch Negative will be resolved after an assessment of the extent to which the state takes action within the next six months that limits the impact of pension payments on the budget while bolstering pension funded levels. Failure to achieve meaningful results would lead to a downgrade of the rating.
Illinois’s long-term liabilities, particularly pension liabilities, are very high for a U.S. state. As of June 30, 2012, the unfunded actuarial accrued liability was reported at $94.6 billion, resulting in a 40.4% reported funded ratio. This large unfunded pension liability is despite the issuance of pension obligation bonds and passage of bipartisan comprehensive pension reform affecting new employees in March 2010.
Annual pension funding requirements have been increasing significantly and growing pension payments are crowding out other expenditure growth and absorbing revenue growth. Pension payments from the general fund increased $965 million to $5.1 billion in 2013, an increase of 23%, reflecting in part the use of more conservative investment return assumptions. Fitch notes that even these large payments, which consume a well-above-average percentage of the state’s general fund budget, are based on statutory formula and are below the actuarially required contribution (ARC).
Several reform proposals have been presented by the governor and various legislators that would adjust benefits for existing employees, increase employee contributions, limit cost of living increases, and increase the retirement age. Other proposed structural changes to the pension program include shifting some responsibility for employer contributions to school districts and state universities and establishing a 30-year funding schedule based on the ARC that aims to reach 100% funding by 2042. Under current statute, annual contributions are designed to reach 90% funding by 2045. Fitch believes that enactment of reform is critical to the long-term stability of the state’s fiscal position, although legal protection of pension benefits is particularly strong in Illinois and Fitch expects any changes to be litigated.
The ‘A’ rating on Illinois’s GO bonds reflects the state’s broad based and diverse economy offset by the challenges presented by a budget that is balanced through significant temporary tax increases, high long-term liabilities including pensions, and a large accounts payable backlog that reflects the payment deferrals the state used to manage its operating deficit through the downturn.
The state’s GO bonds benefit from an irrevocable and continuing appropriation for all GO debt service, and continuing authority and direction to the state treasurer and comptroller to make all necessary transfers from any and all revenues and funds of the state. The state funds debt service in advance by setting aside 1/12 of principal and 1/6 of interest every month for payments due in the ensuing 12 months. [Emphasis added.]
That’s not nearly as bad as it could’ve been, but there are other ratings agencies.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the governor’s office…
“The Fitch report speaks for itself. This should be required reading for every member of the new General Assembly. We have an emergency and it’s not going away.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** Sun-Times…
The move may not have a direct impact on the state’s finances and posts “very minimal risk” to existing state bond holders, but it ultimately could foreshadow higher borrowing costs the next time Illinois goes to market for long-term loans, a company spokeswoman said.
“The immediate result, to be honest, is probably nothing. It doesn’t affect what they’re doing on a day-to-day basis,” Fitch analyst Karen Krup told the Chicago Sun-Times. “But for direct impact on the state, when they try to go to market the next time, there could be implications on borrowing costs.”
*** UPDATE 3 *** From Leader Tom Cross…
“Fitch’s downgrade of our bond rating is embarrassing and may cost the state more money—money that we clearly do not have. How many more times do we have to be downgraded to prompt action in the General Assembly? I have worked and will continue to work with other members in the House and Senate to pass meaningful pension reform.”
*** UPDATE 4 *** Treasurer Rutherford…
“Fitch Ratings announced that the agency has placed Illinois’ general obligation bonds rating on negative watch. Fitch decided to do this because of the state’s inability ‘to address its large and growing unfunded pension liability.’ The next step could potentially be the downgrade of the state’s credit rating from Fitch. Failure to enact pension reforms will eventually bring Illinois to its financial breaking point, and it will be worse than any fiscal calamity we have seen thus far in this state. Our state’s credit rating cannot afford to take another hit.”
“Furthermore, it has now been two years since Governor Pat Quinn’s 66% income tax hike was passed, and though it was billed as a measure that would help solve the state’s financial problems, money matters in Illinois have only gotten worse. On January 11, 2011, the state’s backlog of bills was reportedly $8.5 billion. Today the state owes vendors nearly $9 billion dollars.”
“In the past decade, the state’s bonded debt has nearly tripled. Illinois’ debt is colossal and growing– our debt obligations now exceed $200 billion. It is estimated that the failure to address the state’s pension liability is costing the state at least $17 million per day. It is beyond irresponsible to let this continue. The state needs to reign in the pension escalation and not use long-term borrowing as a ‘solution’ to this problem.”
Also, the governor was asked about Fitch’s move today. Raw audio…
*** UPDATE 5 *** Rep. Elaine Nekritz and Sen. Daniel Biss…
“This announcement just confirms what we have feared and warned about: our state finances are in real trouble. We must act quickly and decisively to address the pension problem and send a strong message that Illinois is serious about getting its fiscal house in order for the long term.”
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* I did a bit of checking and the vote appears to be close right now, but it may not be a done deal yet…
Illinois Review has learned that the Illinois Republican Party’s State Central Committee may very well have the votes needed to force Chairman Pat Brady’s resignation. We’re told that the SCC is working out a plan for IL GOP Vice Chairman Carol Donovan to step in as the interim chairman, and will oversee a deliberate, thoughtful process to pick the next permanent party chair.
Insiders are frustrated that Chairman Brady’s calls to GOP state senators in support of gay marriage have distracted from discussions about the state’s fiscal and pension crisis.
Three-fifths of the State Central Committee’s weighted votes are needed to oust a sitting chairman. Several 2012 Platform Committee members, one GOP lawmaker and the Grundy County GOP have called for Brady’s resignation.
It only takes 25 percent of the central committee’s weighted vote to call a special meeting, so this could play out pretty quickly.
The biggest problem for Chairman Brady is that there are a lot of other issues out there. Last year’s election was not a success, to say the least. He’s made some enemies on the central committee, to say the least.
But if he is ousted, the media will undoubtedly play up the gay marriage angle, and the GOP will go right down the public opinion path that Brady was trying to avoid when he pushed for gay marriage.
*** UPDATE *** Sen. Kirk steps up for Chairman Brady…
He has at least one huge ally: U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk. Says Mr. Kirk’s office in a statement, “Senator Kirk has full confidence in Pat Brady’s leadership as chairman of the Illinois Republican Party and looks forward to working with him to elect Republicans in 2014.”
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Question of the day
Friday, Jan 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It’s Friday. It’s been a long, rough, useless week. I’m tired. I know many of you are as well.
White Sox pitchers and catchers report February 12th, just 32 days from now.
* The Question: Your thoughts on the 2013 baseball season?
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* Last year, $122 million was wagered through what are known as advanced deposit wagering (ADW) websites in Illinois. The sites, like this one, require people to open up an account and then they can place bets on horse races by phone or via the Web. That $122 million represented about a fifth of last year’s total in-state “handle” and the $1.72 million in tax receipts funded 28 percent of the Illinois Racing Board’s budget.
The state legalized ADWs in 2009 and the law was scheduled to sunset last July 1st. The General Assembly extended the sunset to this past January 1st, but then didn’t extend it again. So, ADW is now again illegal in Illinois.
From the Illinois Racing Board’s website…
In the absence of legislation extending the authorization to conduct advance deposit wagering (ADW) beyond the current expiration date of December 31, 2012, effective January 1, 2013, advance deposit wagering (via internet/telephone) is prohibited in Illinois. Hopefully this is a short-term situation since it is expected that the Illinois General Assembly will address this issue in the 2013 Spring legislative session. Upon resolution of this issue, the Illinois Racing Board will provide further notice and you should expect to be notified by your ADW provider.
* Scott Jagow at the Paulick Report has more…
“It’s been made clear to those providers that it’s the position of the board that ADW wagers on Illinois racing are now illegal,” said Marc Laino, the board’s executive director.
“There was legislation introduced in the veto session in January. It went to committee but didn’t receive enough votes.” […]
The initial legalization of ADW wagering in Illinois took place in 2009. The law was extended for six months in 2012 but expired Jan. 1.
“I’m being told the issue will be taken up by the legislature in mid-February,” Laino said, although he didn’t know whether the ADW authorization might be in stand-alone legislation or rolled into a larger gambling bill.
If this gets rolled into a big gaming bill, then the ongoing legislative impasse could mean even more delays. And that means even more revenue will be lost and more companies at risk of going under.
* And speaking of gaming, the Sun-Times asked Gov. Pat Quinn Wednesday about the Senate releasing its parliamentary hold on a gaming bill that the governor has repeatedly vilified…
But on Wednesday, the strident tone the governor once had toward the measure was nowhere to be found as he avoided repeated questions about his intentions with the bill.
“Today’s the day for the Senate and House. The members are sworn in. It’s a day of ceremony and family and democracy,” Quinn said after presiding over the swearing-in ceremony in the Senate at the state Capitol.
“I think it’s important to kind of give the House and Senate their day. There will be plenty of time for us to work on bills,” he said.
Quinn was asked if he still held the same hawkish views against the package.
“I’ve already opined on that in the past, but today is really a day for the new members and re-elected members to come together in bipartisan opportunity to celebrate the fact we have a democracy and we’re always going to keep one,” the governor said.
Pressed on why then he wouldn’t just say he’d veto it, the governor continued to weave.
“There’s plenty of time for that. But today, I think it’s to honor the election of new members and re-elected members of the House and Senate. I’m going to do that. I think that’s a good way for all of us to celebrate the fact the election is over, and now is the time for bipartisan work on important issues like pension reform,” Quinn said.
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Emanuel to unveil gun control plan
Friday, Jan 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Mayor Rahm Emanuel today indicated he will put forward his own city gun control ordinance in the next few days after state lawmakers did not reach agreement on the divisive issue.
Emanuel refused to give details about what specifically his proposal will address. But he said he isn’t willing to wait until state lawmakers take up gun control. Last month, a federal appeals court tossed out the state’s longstanding ban on carrying concealed guns in public. The court gave the state six months to set up new rules.
During his remarks today, Emanuel hit on several of the firearms regulations he has said he would like to see in place at the state level since the Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings in Connecticut.
“Waiting is not a strong suit of mine,” Emanuel said when asked today about the General Assembly’s failure to pass a proposed state ban on assault weapons. “First of all, I believe there’s, I know there’s a majority in the state, an overwhelming majority in the city for a ban on assault weapons, clips, and comprehensive background checks on all sales, wherever they take place, wherever the location may be. And there’s also a majority in the legislature.” […]
Emanuel also has spoken in recent weeks about the need for laws requiring people to report if their guns are lost or stolen.
* More from the Sun-Times…
The mayor’s new gun ordinance is likely to focus on the wish list that Police Supt. Garry McCarthy unveiled at an anti-gun rally last week that included parents whose children were innocent victims of gun violence.
McCarthy argued then that his officers would continue “drinking from a fire hose” until Illinois: bans assault weapons and high-capacity magazines; requires gun owners to report lost, stolen or transferred firearms; mandates criminal background checks before every single gun sale and imposes mandatory minimum penalties “sufficient to deter people” from carrying illegal firearms.
“We need those five things. Not just assault weapons. Not just high-capacity magazines. We need all of it,” McCarthy said on that day.
Noting that Chicago Police recover nine guns for every one recovered in Los Angeles, he said, “That’s insanity, folks.”
While the mayor was talking tough on guns, the City Council’s Public Safety Committee was relaxing city regulations on shooting ranges in Chicago that are the subject of yet another pending court challenge.
Ald. Pat O’Connor (40th), the mayor’s City Council floor leader, acknowledged that whatever Emanuel does locally is certain to end up court. That’s why the mayor’s legal brain trust has been scouring recent court rulings across the country on the subject.
“It’s the art of going to the end without going over the edge. … It’s nuanced pretty well. There are significant enough changes,” O’Connor said, careful not to spill the beans.
“We believe, based upon what we’ve done and researched, that the ordinance will stand [legal] muster. Obviously, if the state and federal government were to step into this in a big way, they could save a lot of time and energy that municipalities spend trying to do what states and the federal government have been unwilling to do.”
Emanuel will likely unveil his plan Monday morning during a Center for American Progress Action Fund event with Representative Mike Thompson (D-CA) and Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on gun control. You’ll be able to watch that live by clicking here.
Keep your tempers under control in comments, please.
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Quinn defends himself
Friday, Jan 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Gov. Pat Quinn talked briefly to the Associated Press this week about pension reform…
He has been widely praised for good intentions and efforts, but now it could be more months without movement and no promise of a solution on his signature issue as Republicans — and even a few fellow Democrats — begin angling to challenge him in the 2014 governor’s race.
Quinn just shrugged it off Wednesday as a new General Assembly was sworn in, effectively restarting the process.
“You have to have deadlines in life,” he said. “Sometimes you make those deadlines, and sometimes you have to keep working, keep running. That’s what long distance is all about. You never stop working on something until you get to the finish line.”
* Quinn also sat down with ABC7’s Charles Thomas…
“When they pounded the gavel down and said we’re finished for this session of the legislature, you know that was the end for the time being,” Quinn said.
As we met this afternoon in the Quinn’s Chicago office, he was disappointed but not discouraged. […]
“We came close, but we’re not there yet. So you keep on pushing. That’s what governors do,” he said. […]
Former U.S. Commerce Secretary and White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley has publicly questioned Illinois’ leadership and says he’s considering a primary run to replace Quinn.
“There are politicians who stand on the sidelines and point fingers. They make excuses and alibis, I’m not one of them,” Quinn said. “I never walk away from a tough battle. I stay in there and fight to the end to get the job done.”
* The governor expressed optimism and counseled patience to the Illinois Radio Network…
Gov. Pat Quinn is ready to resume tackling the old problems in the new General Assembly, with pension restructuring again chief among them. Quinn says his experience as a cross-country runner in high school taught him something about persistence and patience.
“(Senate) President (John) Cullerton indicated Senate Bill 1 will be a pension reform measure. I talked to his staff, and they indicated it would cover the four major systems,” Quinn said. “They also indicated it would not include what is called the ‘school shift,’ so if we can get a bipartisan majority out of the Senate on that bill, I’m optimistic; then, we’ll get it over to the House, where we have, obviously, a lot of work still to do.”
Quinn said he is disappointed the 97th General Assembly adjourned Tuesday without passing a pension bill. In fact, the House did not even call it for a vote. He’s aware the House and Senate do not always agree on legislation, and he said he is not too put out by Cullerton’s comments that Quinn is a good guy but not a very good governor, especially when it comes to passing legislation. “I’m not a member of the legislature,” Quinn said. “I can advocate for ideas and bills.”
Thoughts?
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* Ralph Martire of the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability explains why he believes the current pension reform plans on the table are unconstitutional, but he also inadvertently helps point out why judges shouldn’t ever be included in the plan…
Back in the early 1980s the Illinois General Assembly was worried about the unfunded liability owed to the Judicial Retirement System. So to save some money and reduce that unfunded liability, it passed a law changing how a judge’s salary would be measured for purposes of calculating pension benefits.
This miffed a few justices, who sued claiming the change was a violation of Article XIII, Section 5 of the Illinois Constitution. That article provides: “Membership in any pension or retirement system of the state … shall be an enforceable contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired.”
One of the named plaintiffs in this case, James Felt, showed that upon his retirement, the new computation would cause him to lose $3,187.44 in annual benefits. The state countered that its police power allowed it to impair contracts where the impairment was insubstantial and the state’s interest was compelling — in this case ensuring the fiscal viability of its underfunded judicial pension system.
While recognizing the state’s legitimate interest in ensuring the fiscal viability of its pension systems, the Illinois Supreme Court nonetheless struck down the legislation as an unconstitutional diminishment of a pension benefit.
In the process, the Felt Court rejected every single argument the state made. Indeed, the court maintained that doing otherwise would ignore the plain language of the Illinois Constitution, overrule prior Illinois Supreme Court decisions and run counter to the clear intent of the drafters of the Illinois Constitution.
As to this last point, the Supreme Court cited an explanation of Article XIII, Section 5 given by its author in the Record of Proceedings from the 1970 Constitutional Convention. That explanation plainly stated the intention of the provision was to prohibit the state from “changing the terms of” or “lessening” the pension benefits payable to workers “after they have embarked upon employment.”
I’m sure it also didn’t hurt that judicial salaries are protected by the Illinois Constitution…
Judges shall receive salaries provided by law which shall not be diminished to take effect during their terms of office. All salaries and such expenses as may be provided by law shall be paid by the State
But that diminishment clause also gives ample precedent for the pension language’s even broader language…
Membership in any pension or retirement system of the State, any unit of local government or school district, or any agency or instrumentality thereof, shall be an enforceable contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired.
Discuss.
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Egg noodles and ketchup
Friday, Jan 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My Sun-Times column…
At the end of the movie “Goodfellas,” mobster-turned-informant Henry Hill laments that he’s out of the business.
“Today everything is different. There’s no action. Have to wait around like everyone else. Can’t even get decent food. Right after I got here, I ordered some spaghetti with marinara sauce and I got egg noodles and ketchup. I’m an average nobody. Get to live the rest of my life like a schnook.”
I’ve often said that if you want to understand politics, then you have to watch that movie. The insights it offers about Outfit members applies loosely to politicians, who operate under a surprisingly similar set of rules based on the old Roman legions.
And right now, Gov. Pat Quinn is living the high life, kinda like Henry Hill once did. No, Quinn isn’t paying off cops and judges, or highjacking trucks. But governors have a lot of power and do live well.
Quinn has a staff who attend to most of his needs, a mansion available at his disposal, a car with a driver and security, a fleet of airplanes and invitations to swank parties and major events like the Kentucky Derby. Rich and powerful people demur when he walks into a room. He’s recognized just about everywhere he goes.
And if loses his next election, that all ends. He’ll be just another schnook in a world full of schnooks.
Passing a pension reform bill won’t get Quinn re-elected. In fact, it will likely hurt him badly with state workers, teachers and other public employees.
But the failure to pass a pension reform bill and deal more completely with the state’s wrenching budget problems does enormous harm to Quinn in the public’s mind every time he swings and misses.
And, man, does he ever swing and miss a lot. If he was a baseball player, he’d have been sent back down to the minors a long time ago.
Yes, this is a very difficult problem that, as Quinn rightly notes, has been building for 70 years. No governor has been able to solve it, although Jim Edgar did give it a go.
But an important part of politics is projecting an image of strength and leadership, and Quinn has done neither, which has hurt him badly.
Quinn told reporters last year that he was “put on Earth” to solve the pension crisis. He demanded a solution by the end of the spring session. The deadline came and went. Then he called a special session to deal with pensions in August, but the General Assembly ignored him and did nothing. Then came the November veto session, which passed without any activity.
Gov. Quinn set a “final, final” deadline this past Tuesday, the last full day of the 97th General Assembly. It turned out to be a total disaster. Nothing happened, no votes were taken and an 11th-hour effort by Quinn to hand the problem over to an unelected commission with legislative and executive powers failed miserably.
“Desperate and weak,” was how Sun-Times columnist Mark Brown described Quinn’s commission move. I couldn’t agree more.
Pat Quinn has had four years to learn how to be a real governor. He just hasn’t done it. Quinn is a well-intentioned, decent man, but he hasn’t shown that he’s up to this job.
The next election isn’t until 2014. So unless he somehow manages to change, we’re stuck on a rudderless boat for two more years.
Maybe then, when Quinn is back to eating egg noodles and ketchup, things will start to get better around here. One can only hope.
Discuss.
…Adding… Yepsen is thinking along the same lines and summed it up well…
“Every time he tries and loses a fight it just makes him weaker for the next one,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University in Carbondale.
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Top of the heap
Thursday, Jan 10, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As you already know, 17 Democrats and five Republicans filed to run for the 2nd Congressional District. In such a huge field, any extra votes Robin Kelly could get from getting the top of the ballot spot would be helpful…
Former state Rep. Robin Kelly of Matteson will get the first spot on the ballot in special Democratic primary for the seat once held by former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.
The Illinois State Board of Elections conducted lotteries for the first and last spots on the Feb. 26 primary ballot.
Kelly won out among five candidates who submitted their petitions at the 8 a.m. opening of candidate filing at the elections board last week. In a separate lottery, management consultant Joyce Washington won the bottom spot on the Democratic ballot among five contenders who submitted candidacy petitions in the final hour before the filing deadline concluded at 5 p.m. on Monday.
* In other news, this is a very small buy, but still quite interesting…
U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock’s vote for last week’s fiscal cliff deal already is drawing heat.
A group called the Jobs and Progress Fund plans to spend more than $16,000 on television attack ads in Mr. Schock’s downstate district starting today, Crain’s has learned.
“Washington has a strange effect on politicians. Just four years in Congress, and Aaron Schock has voted for massive tax increases and mountains of debt,” according to a transcript of the ad. “It’s . . . well . . . shocking.”
According to the Ohio Secretary of State’s website, a group called Ohio First for a Better Government registered as a nonprofit corporation in Dayton on March 8, 2011, and changed its name to Jobs and Progress Fund Inc. last month.
Ohio First is registered with the IRS but its annual tax return is not yet available, according to Guidestar.org, a website that tracks nonprofit data.
The group was incorporated by David R. Langdon, a prominent attorney in Cincinnati for several conservative nonprofit groups. He did not respond to a request for comment.
* Meanwhile, in LalaLand…
Tea Party favorite Joe Walsh says conservatives are losing the “war” for U.S. voters and encouraged his backers at a South Loop rally to engage in civil disobedience to defy the Affordable Care Act or new gun regulations.
At his most aggressive, he told dozens of supporters to “defy and or break the law and engage in civil disobedience” if faced with federal health care law restrictions or new gun laws.
He paraphrased Thomas Jefferson in saying, “We may have to shed blood every couple hundred years to preserve our freedoms.”
The one-term McHenry County congressman, who lost his re-election bid to Democrat Tammy Duckworth in November, openly contemplated breaking away from the Republican Party during a Wednesday rally at Blackie’s, 755 S. Clark St.
And in the end of the rally he began organizing a statewide movement he said would “scare Republicans and Democrats.”
A pic from the event…
Caption?
* And one has to wonder whether the father lobster would allow this…
As President Barack Obama tries to avoid fallout from his Cabinet and national security nominations, one potentially controversial post remains vacant.
Amid tension with America’s Roman Catholic leaders about a health care mandate that requires religious employers to provide insurance coverage of contraceptives for employees, Obama must find an ambassador to the Holy See who would please the pope as well as his own political supporters.
“Filling the slot tends to be a special headache for Democratic presidents,” Vatican expert and papal biographer John Allen wrote in a column this week for the National Catholic Reporter.
Allen said Vatican diplomats have their sights set on a number of Catholic scholars and politicians, including an Illinoisan: U.S. Rep. Dan Lipinski, a socially conservative Democrat who opposes abortion rights and the health care mandate.
In an interview, Lipinski told the Tribune he has not been offered the job but would welcome consideration.
* Other stuff…
* Poll: The Tea Party May be Over; Voters Sour on Movement: The new poll reveals only eight percent (8%) now say they are members of the Tea Party, down from a high of 24% in April 2010 just after passage of the national health care law.
* Freshman Rep. Duckworth hopes to be ‘calm voice’ on gun issues
* Bustos gets seat on House Agriculture Committee
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* More massive fail from the Illinois General Assembly…
The Illinois government agency that looks into complaints against doctors announced it will lay off investigators starting Tuesday and warned of yearlong delays in physician licensing because the Legislature didn’t act to bail out the medical watchdog unit.
In a letter being sent to doctors Thursday, officials from Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation pin the blame on the Illinois State Medical Society for lobbying against legislation to transfer $9.6 million to keep the program going. The Associated Press obtained a copy of the letter on Wednesday.
The letter details “calamitous consequences,” including “delays between 12 and 18 months to process a medical license and severe constraints to the Department’s ability to prosecute physicians who pose a risk to the health and safety of Illinois citizens.”
The letter is signed by department Director Jay Stewart and Acting Secretary Manuel Flores. “As a direct result of (the medical society’s) actions, the layoffs will occur,” the letter says.
Medical society president Dr. William Werner said the legislation that stalled in the just-finished lame duck session required borrowing against future money collected by the fund that supports the medical watchdog unit. He said it’s time to restore money that was raided from the fund by previous legislatures.
OK, so the docs worked against it. No other solution could be found?
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Investors yawn at Illinois’ failure
Thursday, Jan 10, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The failed lame duck session has so far been greeted with a yawn by investors. From Bloomberg…
Illinois debt is close to the strongest in two years even after state lawmakers failed for the second time since August to fix the nation’s worst-funded pension system.
The $97 billion of unfunded retirement obligations that Democratic Governor Pat Quinn has likened to a python strangling Illinois are rising by $17 million a day. Moody’s Investors Service rates Illinois A2, five steps below the top rank and the lowest among U.S. states. Last month, it threatened another downgrade without pension changes.
Yet investors such as Eric Friedland at Schroder Investment Management North America said they expect the state will repay its general-obligation securities even though it faces a backlog of $8 billion in bills from vendors. The extra yield buyers demand on debt from Illinois and its localities shrank to as little as 1.32 percentage points over AAA munis last month, the least since February 2011.
“I anticipate credit quality will diminish, but at the end of the day, Illinois G.O. bonds aren’t going to ever default,” said Friedland, head of muni-credit research in New York at Schroder, which oversees about $2 billion of the bonds. Rating companies will probably cut the state’s credit another level, he said.
* This is why there has been no run-up in Illinois interest rates as of yet…
Illinois by law must appropriate funds for debt service, according to a 2011 Fidelity Investments report that ranked it among the seven states with the strongest legal provisions.
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Question of the day
Thursday, Jan 10, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* All four legislative leaders were reelected yesterday. No surprise there. Yesterday, I asked you to give Gov. Pat Quinn some advice, so…
* The Question: What advice would you give each of the four legislative leaders?
Try to avoid snark. Thanks.
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Oops
Thursday, Jan 10, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* In case you saw the earlier post, it has been retracted as an e-mail glitch. So, nevermind.
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Looking back and looking ahead
Thursday, Jan 10, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Decatur Herald & Review editorial board made a good point in today’s issue…
It was amazing the past few days to watch General Assembly members scramble for reasons to not support a pension solution. They were almost like Goldilocks; some proposals were too hard; some were too soft. None, however, was just right because legislators are afraid to vote on an issue that might anger the state’s public employees.
State Rep. Dan Brady, R-Bloomington, said he couldn’t support any proposal because judges weren’t included. We agree judges should be included, but taxpayers would be better off with a partial solution to this problem than no solution.
Rep. Bill Mitchell, R-Forsyth, didn’t like that the problem was being handled in the lame-duck session. We agree, but at $17 million a day, isn’t there a need for some urgency?
* The Tribune made a similar point earlier this week…
Timid lawmakers reached hither and yon to find reasons for not supporting reform legislation: This proposal is too strong, that proposal is too weak, and so on — whatever it took to avoid decisive action.
Among the most maladroit: state Rep. Tom Morrison, a conservative Republican from Palatine, who ran for office on a platform of … pension reform.
We endorsed Morrison wholeheartedly — and then he voted Monday in committee against the only serious, cost-cutting pension reform measure that had any momentum. He evidently thought it didn’t go far enough. In other words, pension reform champion Morrison had found his reason to oppose pension reform!
* But Gov. Quinn was still optimistic, as always…
Gov. Pat Quinn says he believes a new crop of lawmakers will help the Legislature fix Illinois’ $96 billion pension crisis.
Members of the new General Assembly took the oath of office Wednesday. Among them were dozens of lawmakers who were elected to the House or Senate for the first time.
Quinn says many of those legislators ran for office on a platform of pension reform. He says that should help “get the job done.”
* Unlike in the past, however, there is some reason for Quinn’s optimism, as the Tribune editorial board points out today…
As for the ambitious crop of new lawmakers, you’ve got to play catch-up, and fast. We’re counting on incoming Democrats such as Sam Yingling and Scott Drury and Republicans such as Jeanne Ives to make some noise. Remember what you said during the campaign?
“It’s going to take the courage of the freshmen class to make changes. I’m not going to need political cover. I’m going down there to get something done,” Ives told us during an endorsement interview last fall. “I’m willing to vote on anything that advances the situation in a positive way. I will do any baby steps to get there.”
Wanted: Baby steps. Big steps. Galloping strides. Fix the pensions now.
With that last line, the Tribune also appears to be coming around. Legislators may need to rethink this entire process. Maybe “baby steps” are in order for now, just to get something done.
* But not everyone is optimistic…
Sen. Bill Brady, R-Bloomington, a 20-year legislative veteran and the GOP candidate for governor three years ago, also expressed pessimism.
Based on the failure of pension negotiations earlier this week, he said, “I don’t see any progress on the governor’s ability to do anything. I do think that the rank-and-file members who are dependent on those pension systems, they know that this system can’t be sustained without reforms. They’re willing to discuss reforms.”
But he faulted Gov. Pat Quinn for the failed bargaining.
“When you are sticking a needle in the eye of the state’s biggest union on a contract negotiation, and trying to negotiate this, you see the kind of results this governor gets,” he said.
* Related…
* Pension debate to continue in new General Assembly: That plan also will revive a provision that had been removed this week, in hopes of attracting more votes for the package: shifting pension costs for downstate teachers to local school districts.
* Hinz: What now for Illinois pension reform?
* Lame Duck Session Ends Without Vote On Pensions, Lawmakers Plot Next Moves
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Eliminating the Digital Divide
Thursday, Jan 10, 2013 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
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Squeezy the Python flees!
Thursday, Jan 10, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Good riddance to the snake…
Qantas had its own dramatic ‘’snakes on a plane'’ episode when a three-metre python joined passengers on an early morning flight to Papua New Guinea.
But unlike Samuel L. Jackson’s 2006 fictional Hollywood blockbuster in which a nest of vipers causes death and destruction on a jet, this reptile was concerned only with self-preservation.
QF191 was about 20 minutes into its 6.15am flight from Cairns to Port Moresby on Thursday when a woman pointed outside the plane and told cabin crew: ‘’There’s a snake on the wing … There’s its head and if you look closely you can see a fraction of its body.'’
While some passengers scoffed in disbelief, she was correct.
* Photos…
Discuss.
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More session stuff
Wednesday, Jan 9, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Proponents of allowing undocumented immigrants to obtain limited drivers licenses thought Monday night that they were short of passage by a vote or two. Others thought it wasn’t even that close. So, why did the bill get 66 House votes yesterday? Well, some support came from unlikely quarters. And some folks were turned off by the debate. A sample…
Other opponents, including several South Side Democrats, pointed out the unfairness in depriving someone in the U.S. legally of driving privileges for not paying child support but allowing those here illegally a pathway to a drivers license.
“I believe that all of these provisions in the state of Illinois denying an Illinois citizen from a drivers license should darn well be considered, whose background we know, before we give a drivers license to those we don’t know,” said Rep. Monique Davis (D-Chicago), who voted against the bill.
Three South Siders voted against the bill. Rep. Bill Cunningham stuck with the cops, who opposed it. Reps. Monique Davis and Mary Flowers voted “No” as well. Both ended up losing bids for leadership.
* Another sample…
Debate in the House lasted nearly 90 minutes, with critics arguing the new immigrant drivers licenses put the state on record as condoning illegal entry into the country, set up a system that can be exploited by fraud and ignore the fact immigration policy is a federal responsibility, not a state one.
“There will be fraud, abuse. All I have to say is people have called me a hater, a racist,” said Rep. Randy Ramey (R-Carol Stream), who voted against the plan. “All I’m doing is standing by what the Constitution of the United States of America says. If the fed government wants to change the rules, I’d stand by that.”
But, if it’s supposedly “in the Constitution,” then how can the feds “change the rules”?
As I noted yesterday on the live blog, Ramey also made a fruitless attempt to stall the bill by asking for some pretty ridiculous impact notes. That likely didn’t go over well, either.
* Meanwhile, from the Sun-Times…
A dormant gambling expansion bill that would bring a casino to Chicago moved to Gov. Pat Quinn’s desk Tuesday after the state Senate’s top Democrat quietly lifted a parliamentary paperweight that he’d placed on the plan nearly two years ago.
The likelihood that the governor would affix his signature to the package seemed remote since Quinn once belittled the effort as “top heavy” and “excessive,” and the top state gambling regulator whom the governor appointed called it a “pile of garbage.”
Before the close of the lame-duck legislative session Tuesday, Senate President John Cullerton (D-Chicago) removed a parliamentary hold he’d put on the bill immediately after it passed the Senate in May 2011.
By releasing the hold, Cullerton now puts Quinn in a position where he could, should he choose to, use the legislation as a bargaining chip in his stalled pursuit of cuts to state pension benefits. The Senate president has been an active supporter of gambling expansion, and Mayor Rahm Emanuel has pushed hard for a city casino.
The state Constitution gives Quinn 60 calendar days to act on the gambling bill - two months into the spring legislative session when presumably finding a way to solve the state’s $95 billion pension crisis will remain on the frontburner after lawmakers whiffed at efforts to pass a pension bill this week.
* Steve Rhodes is skeptical…
I don’t see how the governor has any leverage, though; with Democratic supermajorities in the new legislature, he’s not really at the table anymore. Why would legislative leaders and/or Rahm - who really, really, really, really wants a casino - give up anything to Quinn to get pension reform in exchange for getting a gambling bill signed when they can now pass a veto-proof gambling bill on their own?
Quinn is now about as relevant as Squeezy.
I suppose it could be used as a chip, but it would be pretty darned irresponsible to do that and I don’t see Cullerton making that sort of move. I hope I’m right.
* More…
* Feds say expanding Medicaid in Illinois could bring in billions, but lawmakers are wary
* Editorial: Don’t trim at-risk kids out of state budgets
* Retiring Sen. Cultra unhappy with direction Illinois is going
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Truer words were never spoken
Wednesday, Jan 9, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Oswego Willy displayed his Golden Horseshoe Award chops in comments today…
Quinn becomes more and more the “deer in headlights” because the levers of the Executive are too complicated to wield, and not because Madigan and Cullerton want to be so difficult, but because Quinn puts the Two true Leaders in position to HAVE to take on more of a role than the 1/3 that the Constitution describes.
This is the absolute heart of the problem. We have a basically well-intentioned governor who simply cannot govern.
There are plenty of other aspects, of course. Madigan has yet to truly get behind a pension fix, for example. But Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar and George Ryan all found ways to work with Madigan to get big things done and move this state forward. Pat Quinn has shown over and over and over again that he just can’t. And, as a citizen, I’m really getting tired of it.
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Hold lifted from “management bill”
Wednesday, Jan 9, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Senate President Pro Tempore Don Harmon withdrew his motion to reconsider last night, meaning that the so-called “management bill” is heading to the governor’s desk. Harmon released a statement yesterday about his decision and what preceded it, calling the years-long process “one of the most difficult and frustrating negotiations of my career.” An excerpt…
The bill itself is not the draconian “Scott-Walker-esque” horror show that some opponents describe. If the bill were signed into law, it would not affect “thousands” of union employees, though it may affect hundreds of state employees who probably never should have been unionized in the first place. Still, no one will lose a job—they will just be removed from the collective bargaining unit.
Immediately after the Senate approved the bill, I filed a motion to reconsider the vote. This was a procedural means to keep the bill in the Senate’s control while we tried one last time to negotiate a fair rebalancing of the State’s workforce, giving the Governor the tools he needs to govern, and protecting the right of rank-and-file workers to organize and bargain collectively.
While we were not able to negotiate a comprehensive solution before my motion expired, I did secure several key promises from the Governor. Most importantly, the Governor committed to the following four points:
1. He will negotiate with the unions a fair and equitable process for implementing the bill, which will permit, whenever possible, employees to transfer into union positions rather than be removed from the union;
2. He will not sign the bill before the deadline so that negotiations of the implementation process and clarifying legislation can unfold;
3. He will not use the full measure of authority granted to him, and will designate fewer employees than allowed by law for exclusion from collective bargaining; and
4. He will not reduce the salary of any employee whose position is excluded from collective bargaining.
* And there could be a trailer bill…
Harmon said additional legislation may be needed if negotiations succeed.
Discuss.
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Desperate and weak
Wednesday, Jan 9, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Quote of the day…
The anti-climatic end to the 97th General Assembly had even the powerful leader of the House, Speaker Michael J. Madigan (D-Chicago), at a loss for words as he contemplated starting the whole process of pension reform from scratch this spring.
“You know, it’s kinda hard to have thoughts, isn’t it?” Madigan said as he left the Capitol.
* Runner-up…
Cullerton, meanwhile, defended the governor’s work on pensions, though in a backhanded fashion.
“I think the guy’s done a good job. Now, it’s not his strength passing legislation in the General Assembly. You know that. So, he’s never really been in the General Assembly,” Cullerton said. “But the four leaders have been here. We know how to pass bills.”
One ally of Quinn’s allies said he “put everything out there on the field today” with his press secretary refusing to take the bait on any suggestion the governor played a role in the inaction.
Sheesh.
* The Sun-Times editorial page is more hopeful about the future than most…
After their stunning failure, legislative leaders said all the right things about getting back to work. The two main pension bills will be refiled immediately, one by Rep. Elaine Nekritz and Sen. Daniel Biss and another by Sen. President John Cullerton. This time around, notably, Cullerton’s bill will cover four pension systems rather than just two.
Cullerton believes only his approach is allowed under the state Constitution, which protects benefits from being diminished, and we believe his argument has merit.
He proposes passing both bills and letting the Illinois Supreme Court decide which is constitutional. Nekritz said she is open to the idea, so long as it’s cleared by constitutional lawyers. That’s a big if, but at this point it’s hard to see another path forward. More input from the state’s unions also would be helpful.
The only good news is that the hard work is mostly done. The broad contours of a painful but desperately needed pension overhaul are at hand.
All that’s missing is courage.
I think what Cullerton said was that he’d let the Nekritz/Cross plan have a shot at the courts first before his plan could be enacted.
But the hard work is definitely not “mostly done.” The Senate passed its bill, but the House’s bill is way short of clearing that chamber right now. And neither bill has majority support in the other chamber at the moment. What’s required here is leadership, and there’s precious little of that in these parts.
* Speaking of leadership, or the lack thereof, I couldn’t agree more with Mark Brown’s assessment of Gov. Pat Quinn’s last minute gambit to create a commission that could force pension changes into law…
I imagine Quinn’s idea sounds good to some people, taking the power away from the Legislature, and maybe it will sound better to me after a few more months or years of inaction. But springing it at the last minute just looked desperate and weak.
* The Tribune was its usual harsh self…
So the dead-duck session has ended, and the next General Assembly will be sworn into service at noon Wednesday. There is, at this writing, absolutely no reason to think the next Legislature will be more committed than the last to solving this problem.
That’s not really true. As I’ve pointed out before, many of the newly elected legislators are bringing a fresh approach to pension reform, which was an issue in every one of their races. Also, a significant credit ratings downgrade could panic people into taking action. And then there’s the impact this is having on the budget.
* And I’m not so sure this is right…
Rep. David Leitch, a Peoria Republican and former banker, said it was a “gross mistake” to end the session without calling the Nekritz plan for a House vote and added that it might be more difficult to advance the measure in the new General Assembly.
Leitch said the lame-duck session would have been the “ideal time” to move the bill because lawmakers who had one foot out the door could have been persuaded to take difficult votes because they won’t have to face voters again.
“Typically, that’s when you do tough things,” Leitch said. “This is a tough thing. Unfortunately, we didn’t do it.”
Lame duck Democrats are free to vote like Democrats. That’s what happened with the income tax hike, civil unions and death penalty repeal two years ago. This time around, we’re talking about getting lame duck Democrats to vote more like Republicans. Not easy at all, particularly when some retirees are counting on their pensions, and others don’t want to vote for something that could hurt them in any future careers as lobbyists. This was always a super tall order, to say the least.
* Related…
* VIDEO: Senate leaders’ reaction to pension vote
* Illinois lawmakers adjourn without pensions fix
* Illinois Tries, and Fails, to Fix Its Pensions
* Lawmakers leave with no pension solution
* Pension debate to continue in new General Assembly
* No pension reform for the 97th General Assembly
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* Let’s all hope that the new General Assembly can accomplish what the old General Assembly could not. Blackberry users click here, everybody else can just watch right here…
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