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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Monday’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Saturday, Nov 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Barton and I are going to take a long weekend. Many thanks to Bill Brady for conceding today and letting us all get a much-needed break. I think I could sleep for three days.

Before I go, I want to thank this blog’s readers and commenters for an enjoyable, crazy fun election season. But I want to particularly thank my subscribers for their continued support. Times are tough, and some of you can’t afford to renew, but most of you are hanging in there, as you’ve done for many a year. I can’t thank you enough, and I hope to continue improving every day.

* Anyway, enough of this “I love you, man!” stuff. I need a nap. These guys are playing their first Chicago gig at the Double Door on Tuesday. Check them out


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*** UPDATED x1 *** Quinn victory press conference live-blog and video

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* ABC7 will broadcast it live.

I’ll post the embedded video at 3:30, when the festivities are set to begin.

* 3:27 pm - The feed is now hot, so here’s the embed.

If you have any problems with ABC7’s feed, you can click here to watch WGN.

* 3:33 pm - WGN just reported that the presser is running 10-20 minutes late.

* While we’re waiting for the governor, House Republican Leader Tom Cross just issued a statement…

“Residents across the state and the nation have sent a very strong message this week by electing more Republicans to serve in six new seats in the Illinois House.

The next couple of months we will congratulate and talk to the new members in our caucus, as well as the members across the aisle. We will also work with the newly elected constitutional officers and ask for the input and ideas for comprehensive solutions.

It is imperative that we continue listen to Illinois residents’ concerns and ideas and work together on solutions as we look forward to getting our state back on track.

If we make that our mission, we will be able to enact solutions that will create more jobs and a more efficient, effective government that is accountable to the people we serve.”

* 3:58 pm - Almost a half hour late. Four more years, campers. Oy.

*** 3:59 pm *** And we’re starting…

“We may have strong differences on policy issues, but we’re all Americans and Illinoisans.”

Said being elected was a “tremendous privilege.”

“We were often underestimated, but not by me.” Said he believes in grassroots politics.

Education, he said, is the “key to opportunity for everyone.”

“My job is to put Illinois to work.” Mentioned education again and said he wants to maintain integrity in government. Said those were his three top goals.

He used Manny’s as a microcosm of Illinois. Diverse clientele where everybody seems to get along.

“I could tell last week that there was a surge everywhere I went.” “The people call the shots, not the experts, not the pollsters and not the insiders.”

“It’s never easy to concede. I’ve not won every election and when you don’t win it’s really hard.”

Quinn said he will put together a veto session agenda for the “budget situation” and the “jobs situation.”

Asks that legislators in both parties in both chambers “not be timid” on reform.

Said he thinks AllKids will be in place “as long as I’m around.”

“You know, when you’re down 13 points, nobody’s throwing rosebuds at you.” Best line of the day.

Said he sees a tax increase as “revenue investments in people.” … “Investing in education pays great dividends.”

Said the Hispanic vote was “very, very important… and really made a big difference.”

“We have a lot of work to do in Illinois and I’m ready to do it.”

* End.

…Adding… Bill Brady’s concession letter to supporters is here.

*** UPDATE *** Video


  45 Comments      


A little mid-afternoon diversion - Pat Quinn busts a move

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Simon Edelman was producing videos for Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign in complete obscurity until the readers of this blog started taking notice in the early summer of 2009. His recent “Glee” video now has over 150,000 views. Our young man has grown up right before our eyes. Simon sent me this e-mail the other day and I got so busy that I forgot to post it…

Dear Rich, subscribers and Capitol Fax junkies,

For the last 18 months I’ve had the privilege of documenting Pat Quinn’s governorship.

Every day, I’ve had one basic goal: to faithfully and positively portray Governor Quinn. I’ve also labored to reveal the many contrasts between Pat Quinn and his opponents. The Governor has made my job interesting and easy, because he’s always on the go and he works really hard.

It’s been an honor and an education to serve the Governor in my capacity and to shadow him along the way as he accomplished historic things for Illinois. I have seen a lot of big egos and ugly politics since I started this job, but Pat Quinn is cut from a different cloth — an honest, independent, public servant. We need that.

As this campaign season draws to a close, I want to thank you, sincerely for your critiques and your compliments.

Sincerely,
Simon B. Edelman

* Simon’s note inspired me to make another Quinn mashup video. This one’s for Simon, Gov. Quinn and all the people who worked so hard to elect the governor. I figure they’ve earned it. Some of you may disagree with the sentiment expressed, but, hey, it’s over, man. It’s finally over. So get up and dance with Pat


Gimme the bridge now

  20 Comments      


Brady’s concession speech live blog - Raw video

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* You can click here to listen or watch the live video.

* 1:29 pm - The video feed is now hot.

* 1:30 pm - Two minute warning. Jason Plummer will speak first, followed by Sen. Bill Brady.

* 1:32 pm - If you’re having trouble with the ABC7 feed, CBS2 also has a live feed.

* 1:33 pm - Plummer vowed to work with the lt. governor and the governor any way he could. He choked up a bit when thanking his staff.

* 1:34 pm - Brady is now speaking. “This election, this campaign for us was all about a path to bringing jobs” to the people of Illinois.

“We thank the voters of Illinois, the millions of voters who were willing to listen to us.”

“I just a few minutes ago got off the phone with Gov. Quinn, and I congratulated him on his victory, as he deserved.”

Brady said he also offered to work with Gov. Quinn.

Sen. Brady praised his wife Nancy, “who could not do a better job.”

“Jason and I have truly been blessed” with their hard-working staff.

“But it’s the people of Illinois that we truly are grateful to.”

Brady said that after a “bitter election,” it was time to work together to make the state as great as it can be.

* 1:40 pm - End of remarks.

* 1:41 pm - He’s going to take questions from the media. Said the governor had invited him to Manny’s Deli to talk. Said the big GOP congresional wins show that the people want their leaders to work together in a bipartisan manner. Asked about his campaign strategy, he said he’d leave it to the pundits to decide whether it was the right one or not.

He wouldn’t rule any further run out right now. “Life’s too short to rule anything out.” Mrs. Brady said something at the same time, but I didn’t catch it. Did anyone else hear what she said?

* 1:44 pm - End of questions.

Classy, reserved, firm, yet not defiant. A decent job by a decent man.

* 2:12 pm - Sun-Times

Trailing Gov. Quinn by more than 19,000 votes, Republican Bill Brady conceded the gubernatorial race Friday afternoon, saying: “Gov. Quinn won this race. He worked hard for it.”

Speaking to reporters and supporters at a Bloomington hotel, Brady said he had just spoken with Quinn.

“I congratulated him on his victory,” Brady said,

Brady’s announcements ends a gubernatorial campaign that had led Quinn in most pre-election polls.

* 2:18 pm - Gov. Quinn is holding a 3:30 presser. I’ll look around for live audio/video. Help me if you can. I still have to finish my syndicated newspaper column. If you missed Brady’s speech, here is the raw video


* At the end, Brady is asked whether he might run again. “Third time’s a charm?” a reporter asked. Brady said that life’s too short to rule anything out. Mrs. Brady, however, shook her head, smiled and said what sounded like “We’re not going to entertain that right now.” I don’t blame her. That was a grueling campaign. Bill’s basically been running for governor for the past six years.

  61 Comments      


A look ahead

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Pat Quinn loves him some Michael Sneed, and he gave her an exclusive interview for today’s paper

Amongst Quinn’s running mates on the state Dem ticket were those who treated him as “toxic and did not want to have their pictures taken with me,” he said.

“It was hard to take watching them shy away, but in the end we had the connection to ordinary people and that’s what counted. It has all been inspiring.”

From yesterday’s Sneed

Click. Click. Nix pix. Sneed hears failed U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias felt Gov. Quinn was so toxic weeks before the election, he steered away from posing in pix with him until just before the election.

It wasn’t just Giannoulias, however. Quinn has been upset for months that legislative Democrats with anything close to a tough race refused to go anywhere near him. Considering how badly Quinn was beaten Downstate, that’s quite understandable. And while he won the Cook County suburbs, he was never anywhere near 50 percent, so he was seen as a needless drag. Legislative leaders prefer to position their candidates in isolation during years like this. But Quinn thought that meant they despised him. It wasn’t personal, it was just business.

* For instance, Brady had some coattails in Decatur

Though the Decatur area will feel the effects of a number of statewide elections, the ousting of state Rep. Bob Flider might mean the most significant change for the city and the Illinois House district that includes most of it. […]

Flider’s defeat means Decatur will no longer have any Democratic representation in the General Assembly

Flider wanted nothing to do with Quinn during the campaign. I can’t hardly blame him.

* And check this out

Gov. Pat Quinn and Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias did not win a single precinct within Adams County in Tuesday’s election, and U.S. Rep. Phil Hare was only able to claim one precinct.

Reports from the Adams County county clerk’s office also show that two Republican statewide candidates, Mark Kirk and Bill Brady, won all 80 precincts and collected more than 70 percent of the vote in Adams County. Kirk defeated Giannoulias in the U.S. Senate race, while Brady trails Quinn by nearly 20,000 votes despite winning 98 of the state’s 102 counties.

As expected, Bobby Schilling, the Republican candidate in the 17th U.S. House District in Illinois, received 72 percent of the vote overall and won 62 of 63 precincts the district covers in Adams County. U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Peoria, represents the other precincts.

Hare, a two-term incumbent, received less than a quarter of the vote in Adams County and won one precinct in the city of Quincy. & not; In 2006, the last time Hare faced an opponent (Andrea Zinga), he won 39 percent of the vote in Adams County and 19 precincts, all in the city of Quincy.

* Gov. Quinn won on a platform of moderate cuts, “strategic” borrowing and raising taxes. But a key component of that plan stalled again yesterday in the Senate

Illinois senators will try again in two weeks to figure out how to make $3.75 billion in payments to state pension systems this year.

After hurriedly returning to Springfield two days after the election to address the issue, the Senate adjourned Thursday without voting on a plan to make the payment by borrowing up to $4 billion. The bill, previously approved by the House, didn’t even get a vote in committee.

* And lawmakers don’t appear to love any of the options

Illinois also has a backlog of nearly $6 billion in unpaid bills to schools and vendors that do business with the state. Jacobs said the state has to clear its name of that debt.

“I think at the end of the day you’ve got to pay your bills,” Jacobs. “So that gives you a couple of options: You either borrow it, you raise a tax to get it or you cut something to get it.”

Thursday’s inaction on the pension bond plan appears to kick borrowing off the list.

State Sen. Bill Haine, D-Alton, said cuts most likely are on the horizon.

“Primarily we’re going to have to cut as much waste as we can, and we’re going to have to cut programs that are not waste but that are good programs but that we can’t afford anymore,” Haine said. “We just can’t afford some of the good things that we do.”

Public opinion polls have shown voters support cuts, but when given specific programs to cut, they balk. Same goes for an income tax increase.

“The polls indicate the people at this time do not believe a tax increase is justified,” said Haine. “So we have to have a dialogue and have them tell us what their priorities are and how we get to a state of solvency. We are in a state where we are critically in danger of being insolvent.”

* And the general feeling under the Statehouse dome yesterday was similar to this longtime subscriber’s, who wrote…

After being pounded for being incompetent and a flip-flopper, Quinn decides to spend his lunch hour [yesterday] in Chicago glad-handing voters at Manny’s Deli, rather in Springfield glad-handing senators at the session he asked Cullerton to call. I know they didn’t have the votes, but it might have been nice to send the message that he was engaged on the solutions he proposed.

The really frustrating thing is that Quinn is probably going to take this election as some kind of mandate and vindication of his governance, management style and all-around brilliance, rather than realizing that he got very lucky, and that a lot of people pitched in and helped even though they were upset with his leadership. I count myself among them.

It’s going to be a long four years.

Yes, it is. Without a doubt.

  20 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I seem to be using him a lot today, but Zorn has posted a Pat Quinn quote

I” have a mandate, I think, to serve Illinois for the next four years…I think there are those who understand that the election returns gave us a lot of support”

Well, he did run on a tax increase platform during a tea party (TEA=Taxed Enough Already) year and won. That’s certainly something. Yet, he hardly scored a resounding win.

* The Question: Does Gov. Quinn have a mandate? If not, explain. If so, to do what?

  89 Comments      


Brady will bow out at 1:30

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’ll see what I can do about finding some audio and video. WJBC Radio in Bloomington was a good source the other day. Check back at 1:30.

* Pantagraph

Republican state Sen. Bill Brady is expected to concede the race for governor to Democrat Pat Quinn later Friday, The Pantagraph has learned.

* Tribune

The candidate has scheduled a 1:30 p.m. news conference at a Bloomington hotel.

* AP

Two Republicans with knowledge of state Sen. Bill Brady’s campaign plans say he will concede the extremely close race for Illinois governor to Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn.

The two spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity so as not to pre-empt Brady’s planned announcement later Friday in his hometown of Bloomington.

…Adding… ABC7 will carry it live. Thanks to a commenter for finding that one.

  41 Comments      


BRADY TO HOLD PRESSER AT 1:30

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

Posted by Barton Lorimor

More gubernatorial drama…

State Sen. Bill Brady has set a 1:30 p.m. news conference in Bloomington to make an announcement regarding his campaign for governor of Illinois. […]

There is no word on what the announcement will entail, but so far Brady has refused to concede the race. An AP analysis completed Thursday showed Quinn with a 19,400-vote lead with 100 percent of precincts reporting.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Newspaper wants to abolish one person, one vote in Illinois

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Southern Illinoisan’s editorial board has lost its collective mind

Here is the frustrating reality facing our state. Chicago has enough votes to forever rule Illinois statewide government. That seems a near certainty because of the city’s one-party Democratic rule.

Critics of the Electoral College will howl at this suggestion, but the final voting mechanism that awards the U.S. presidency would better the entire state of Illinois for statewide offices - including governor and attorney general - than the popular vote. It would require passage of a constitutional amendment and meet fierce resistance by Chicago, but the advantages would be felt across Illinois. It would mean more statewide power for Marion, Carbondale and other communities across the state.

If created for Illinois statewide offices, an electoral college could award differing numbers of votes to each county, based on population. Larger counties would have more electoral votes through this per-capita system, but not the crushing majority wielded by Chicago with the popular vote. It would require an absolute majority of electoral votes to win a statewide office.

Our national founders created the Electoral College to prevent big population states from playing too great a role in a nationwide vote. It occasionally results in the oddity of a popular vote winner, such as Al Gore in 2000, failing to capture the Electoral College vote and the presidency. But the leveling of the playing field for urban, suburban and rural voters is an important continuation of our nation’s federalist roots. It is worth the occasional anomaly, especially since the popular and Electoral College winners are usually the same candidate.

Let’s think about a similar system for Illinois. It would give our state a chance to remain known as the “Land of Lincoln” and not as “the suburb of Chicago.”

Yeah. OK. Let’s abandon “One person, one vote.” Right. That brilliant idea wouldn’t just meet “fierce resistance” from Chicago. Judges would laugh it out of court. Seriously, pot didn’t just secretly become legal in Illinois, did it? Because those editorial board members are obviously smoking some very wacky weed.

* Empty acres don’t vote. Counties don’t vote. Townships don’t vote. Regions don’t vote. Citizens vote.

Back in the “good old days,” southern Illinois politicians were able to stop redistricting for decades. The Chicago area’s population was exploding, but the people there had little influence in their state legislature. Apparently, the newspaper of record for that region would like to go back to those halcyon times.

* Here’s a news flash for the undemocratic southerners: Mark Kirk is not from Chicago, but he won statewide. Judy Baar Topinka does not live in Chicago and neither does Dan Rutherford. Sheila Simon actually lives in Carbondale, where that bizarro newspaper is published.

Bill Brady didn’t lose because he wasn’t from Chicago. Bill Brady lost because he failed to run a better campaign than Pat Quinn. Period. Brady was the frontrunner all year. He blew it. Plain and simple. Get over it, man. Back in 1994, Downstater Jim Edgar actually won Cook County. George Ryan was from Kankakee, where I was born. Last time I checked, Kankakee is not a Chicago ward. Obviously, it can be done. Brady just didn’t pull it off.

* And it wasn’t just Chicago votes that elected Pat Quinn. Almost half a million Downstaters voted for him. Should they be disenfranchised too?

Why should the 2,104 voters in Hardin County have more say in their state government than the 1,373,020 human being voters who happen to live in Cook County? What makes those Hardin voters so all-fired special and superior?

The Southern Illinoisan is based in Jackson County. 15,617 people voted for governor in Jackson. But 23,594 people voted in Chicago’s 19th Ward. Yet, for some reason Jackson County votes should count for more than Beverly/Morgan Park’s?

* Look, you backed a candidate who didn’t win. But that doesn’t mean it’s time for radical, unconstitutional “solutions.” That’s some very dangerous thinking.

Several years ago, I asked the good folks who run the Legislative Research Unit if they had any data on which counties were the biggest state tax eaters and which were the biggest state revenue generators. I was told that the LRU has long refused to do that study because it is just too controversial. The last time they did it, they discovered that Downstate was a net revenue eater, the suburbs were a net revenue contributor and Chicago was revenue neutral. The results caused such an uproar that they won’t even touch the subject now.

The fact that Downstaters eat more than their share of state money doesn’t give them the right to have more than one vote per person.

* Newspaper editorial boards are supposed to be the guardians of public discourse. They’re supposed to take the time to think things through, calm the darker influences on our souls and advocate for rational, reasonable solutions. None of that was present in the SI’s ridiculous editorial. I really thought the Tribune was horrid, but there’s just no comparison here.

  147 Comments      


A note to commenters

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Usually, I have to use the front page to warn commenters before an election to calm down. I didn’t have to do that this year. I intervened in the comments section on occasion, but it never got to the point where I felt the need to issue an above the fold banishment warning.

Yesterday afternoon, however, while I was working at the Statehouse and unable to keep an eye on the blog, things got way outta hand in comments.

* I completely understand how Bill Brady’s supporters feel right now. You thought you had it. You didn’t. And now the other side doesn’t want to even give you time to make sure all the votes are counted. That’s just horribly depressing. I can see why you’re upset, even angry.

And I think I understand how the Quinn supporters are feeling. You had Rodney Freaking Dangerfield himself as your candidate, but by gosh he won. And now the guy he beat won’t admit defeat and exit the stage like a proper gentleman.

Combine those two and you’ve got quite the combustible mix.

* But here’s the thing. I won’t tolerate any more of this. I issued a lifetime banishment last night and I’ll do more today if need be, so start treating each other with respect and take off your tinfoil hats or you’re going to find yourself forever banned from commenting here. And you can bet your house that I’m just itching to zap my first moron today. Don’t tempt me.

Try to understand what the other side is going through. It’s not really all that difficult. Both parties won something unexpected Tuesday, both parties also lost.

* Please use the comment section on this post to say something nice about the other side today. You’ll be surprised at how much better you’ll feel. Politics is a rough business, and, yes, we do play rough here. But we don’t need to get dirty and be mean to each other.

So, electronically shake hands and let’s move along. We’re better than yesterday.

  63 Comments      


Who was the best pollster? Nobody

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* How did the pollsters do on the Illinois governor’s race? I don’t think it’s ever been this bad. Nobody’s average even came close. From RCP via Zorn. Click the pic for a larger image…

* October polling. Again, click the pic for a better view…

PPP should’ve stopped in mid October when it was ahead.

* Rasmussen was also way off nationwide. From FiveThirtyEight, also via Zorn…

I did a quick check on the accuracy of polls from the firm Rasmussen Reports, which came under heavy criticism this year — including from FiveThirtyEight — because its polls showed a strong lean toward Republican candidates.

Indeed, Rasmussen polls quite consistently turned out to overstate the standing of Republicans tonight. Of the roughly 100 polls released by Rasmussen or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research in the final 21 days of the campaign, roughly 70 to 75 percent overestimated the performance of Republican candidates, and on average they were biased against Democrats by 3 to 4 points.

Every pollster is entitled to a bad cycle now and again — and Rasmussen has had some good cycles in the past. But their polling took a major downturn this year.

* But FiveThirtyEight’s famed computer model didn’t exactly work like a charm, either

Thoughts?

  29 Comments      


Chicago will count 11,777 absentees Friday

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up from Thursday evening for visibility.]

* From the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners…

* We have another 11,777 absentee voters’ ballots that have arrived by mail Monday or later. These will be processed at 10 a.m. on Fri., Nov. 5 in the Lower Level at 69 W. Washington St., along with any valid absentee ballots that may arrive in the mail early Friday with a postmark of Nov. 1 or earlier.

* We have a remaining universe of approximately 6,000 absentee ballots not yet returned that may or may not arrive over the course of the next 12 days. (On Wednesday, I understated this number because of the errant reference to the pages of returned ballots, instead of the number of voters’ sets of ballots — Constitutional Amendment and Candidates.)

* There also remain approximately 11,000 provisional ballot envelopes that need to be reviewed over the course of the next week, now that the deadline has passed for voters to supply supplemental documents to support their voter registration claims.

Quinn’s lead stands at 19,413, but apparently, that’ll be rising once Chicago finishes counting. Other counties are still processing as well, but that’s a huge number of city absentees.

* From ABC7

All that is left are the absentee, military and provisional ballots that the Associated Press estimated number around 50,000. If there are that many votes uncounted, Brady would have to win 70-percent to have a chance to win.

And, keep in mind that most of those provisionals probably won’t even be counted. Cook County Clerk David Orr said yesterday that the county usually approves only about a quarter of the provisional ballots. This is why there’s just no chance for Brady.

…Adding… About 37,000 of those 50,000 total uncounted absentees and provisionals are in Chicago and Cook County alone.

…Adding More… Quinn won Chicago with 75 percent of the vote. Figuring that the city’s 11,777 absentees will break out about the same (it’ll probably be higher for Quinn, considering pre-election polling, but let’s just figure it that way), that’s 8,832 absentee votes for Quinn. If a quarter of the city’s provisionals are counted, that’s 2,062 more votes for Quinn, for a total of 10,894 votes. Using the same math for suburban Cook, which Quinn won with 53 percent, Quinn would pick up 6,042 votes. City and Cook combined total 14,874 Quinn votes. Using that same figuring, Brady’s total for both Chicago and Cook would be 6,742. Add the difference of those two numbers to Quinn’s current margin over Brady and you get a Quinn lead of 27,545, with just 13,000 votes left to count, assuming they are all countable, and they’re not.

This thing is over. The AP is right.

  36 Comments      


Cullerton holds pension borrowing until veto session

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

Posted by Barton Lorimor

While we’re tracking the AP’s decision to call the gubernatorial election for Gov. Quinn, Senate President John Cullerton has decided not to call the pension borrowing bill until the veto session…

Senate President John Cullerton told a committee Thursday he would continue talking to the GOP and try to resurrect the multibillion plan when the fall veto session begins in 10 days.

More from Lee…

The lingering roadblock was reminiscent of what happened last spring, when the plan won narrow support in the House, but stalled in the Senate when Democrats insisted some Republicans vote in favor of the borrowing plan.

“It doesn’t look like we have support. But we’re not there yet,” Cullerton said. “I’m just asking for Republicans to come around. They are not there yet.”

Republicans, who picked up two seats in the chamber after Tuesday’s balloting but remain in the minority, say no matter the outcome of the election they want Democrats to commit to additional savings in upcoming budgets as a way to start digging the state out of its huge budget hole.

“It’s unfortunate we’re here,” Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno said.

…Adding…
Statehouse News has posted video of Cullerton in Committee…


  11 Comments      


*** UPDATED 4x *** THIS JUST IN….AP ANALYSIS FINDS BRADY CANNOT WIN; BRADY WON’T CONCEDE

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

Posted by Barton Lorimor

From the AP…

Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn eked out a narrow win over his Republican challenger as one of the few Democrats to survive a GOP wave that swept out others in Illinois and around the country.

An AP analysis of uncounted votes from absentee and other ballots showed state Sen. Bill Brady won’t be able to overcome the just more than 19,400-vote lead Quinn held Thursday with 100 percent of precincts reporting.

*** UPDATE 1x (4:23 p.m.) ***
McDermott has Brady quotes…

Brady still hadn’t conceded as of Thursday afternoon. But his earlier insistence that he would still win was notably absent as he talked to reporters.

“We were confident we had run a great campaign . . . We’re just going through something we didn’t anticipate,'’ Brady told reporters in Springfield, where he and other state senators met in session for the first time since Tuesday’s elections.

Brady continued to maintain that he would wait for all the absentee and other votes to be counted before deciding whether to concede. But when pressed about the difficulty of overcoming Quinn’s current lead, Brady acknowledged: “We’d rather be 19,000 up than 19,000 down.'’

It looks like Quinn has a half-percentage point lead on Brady, according to the AP’s figures.

*** UPDATE 2x (4:55 p.m.) ***
Illinois Statehouse News has video…


More from the AP…

“I think the people of Illinois know I won the election,” Quinn said at a Chicago deli where he thanked people for voting on Election Day.

Exit polls showed Quinn received overwhelming support in the city of Chicago and had solid support among those from households with less than $100,000 income, labor union households and those with a family member who had lost a job in the last two years.

Brady had said Wednesday he wouldn’t concede and wanted all the votes to be counted, including absentee ballots from military members serving outside Illinois. State officials have 30 days to certify all results.

“Votes need to be counted, there are good votes, and we’re going to deal with all the data that’s there and we’ll then deal with the decision-making process as we gather data,” Brady said earlier Thursday at the state capitol because the state Senate was in session.

…Adding…
The Washington Post has more numbers…

The Associated Press called the race for Quinn this afternoon. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Quinn received 1,721,812 votes to Brady’s 1,702,399, a margin of victory of half a percentage point.

*** UPDATED 3x (5:02 p.m.) ***
Schuh just told the AP Brady does not plan to concede despite the AP calling the election.

*** UPDATED 4x (5:18 p.m.) ***
The final numbers, according to the AP are:
Pat Quinn: 1,721,812 (46.6%)
Bill Brady: 1,702,399 (46.1%)
Scott Lee Cohen: 134,219 (3.6%)
Rich Whitney: 99,625 (2.7%)

Also, the absentee vote count in Jackson County turned it over to Brady this morning by 23 votes. That means Quinn’s county victories included Cook, St. Clair and Alexander.

  89 Comments      


Clueless

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If Melissa Bean’s election results don’t show the rank stupidity of her campaign and the DCCC, then I don’t know what does.

Even if she somehow manages to overcome her 553-vote deficit - and that’s doubtful - this never should’ve been close.

Joe Walsh had tons of people in the field, marching in parades, knocking on doors. Bean didn’t. Bean made some bad votes for her district (health insurance, stimulus, etc.). She had always run as a conservative to moderate Democrat, but then she changed. Unfortunately for Bean, her district didn’t.

* Bean also didn’t realize until it way was too late that she was in trouble, and she quickly tried to flood the airwaves with negative ads. By then, everybody else was already on the air with their ads. She was drowned out.

And what did the DCCC do? Nothing. They could’ve weighed in late, but they didn’t. They probably thought she had it in the bag and was just being a typical whiner incumbent who always thinks she’s in trouble.

Bean won her first two races with 52 and 51 percent, respectively. She behaved like a moderate in Congress. Then she clobbered her GOP opponent two years ago, so maybe she and the DCCC figured she was unbeatable and Bean could do whatever she wanted. But 2008 was a Democratic landslide, especially here in Illinois. This time, Illinoisans were clearly furious with the Democratic Congress, and they made those feeilings known. Just ask Phil Hare, Debbie Halvorson, Bill Foster, Dan Seals and Alexi Giannoulias.

Bean apparently believed her own hype and thought she could sit on what she thought was her lead. Wave rules didn’t apply to her. And her campaign was clearly convinced that Joe Walsh’s numerous personal problems disqualified him in voters’ minds. Wrongo.

* And then there was this

The presence of Green Party candidate Bill Scheurer of Lindenhurst also likely hurt Bean’s re-election bid.

Scheurer’s name was already familiar, since he ran for Congress in 2008 and for state representative as a Democrat in 2004. And Mezey said most of the 6,400 voters who backed Scheurer on Tuesday are probably progressive liberals who would have otherwise voted Democratic.

Third party candidates aren’t viable in Illinois, but as Bill Brady found out the hard way, they can still do you in. Bean’s campaign and the DCCC’s non-involvement was a screwup from beginning to end. And the third party angle was just one of the bigger reasons behind it.

* If anything, I now have a bit more respect for the We Ask America polling firm. While they didn’t get the final point spread right, they did have Walsh leading Bean in their last survey, and they showed the Green Party candidate getting over 5 percent. He ended up with 3, but that’s well within the margin of error.

They were also the only public pollster to predict that Bob Dold would beat Dan Seals. They got the spread way wrong, but the end result was the same. They also had Hultgren over Foster.

* Related…

* 4 Ill. House seats flip to GOP

* Dem machine wins what it most wants while losing U.S. House seats

* Behind by 553 votes, Bean won’t concede to Walsh

* Tea party favorite claims victory in U.S. House race — but nothing settled yet

* Walsh claims victory with all precincts counted

* Lyons: Tsunami unexpectedly splashed 8th District

* Dold credits catchy ad and other strategies in House win

* How Walsh surprised Bean

* Dold wants to extend tax cuts, boost economy

* Replacing Health Care Bill a Priority: Bob Dold

* In victory, Dold takes a centrist tack

* Hultgren says national issues propelled win

* Faith guides Congressman-elect Randy Hultgren

* Congressman-elect tours 14th District

* Hultgren win part of national wave

* Victory ‘humbling’ for Kinzinger

* Politics has long been a passion for U.S. Rep.-elect Kinzinger

* Kinzinger’s win no surprise to those around him

* Afghan, Iraq vet unseats Dem incumbent

* Need to Bring Government to People: Kinzinger

* Schilling out thanking voters after upset win over Hare in 17th Congressional District

* Schilling says voters are real winners

  53 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The setup…

WLS News has learned that senior Illinois Republicans are now urging Bill Brady to concede the governor’s race to Pat Quinn.

Our John Dempsey has more.

A source tells WLS that party leaders want Brady to concede because they do not see any way he can overcome what is now a 19,000 vote deficit to Governor Pat Quinn.

The source also says the national Republican Governor’s Association is driving Brady’s decision not to concede after the group spent nearly $8 million on Brady’s attempt to defeat Quinn.

* The AP’s latest count has Quinn ahead of Brady by 19,514 votes. That’s down 47 votes from last night.

* The Question: Should Brady concede today, or should he wait until the absentee votes are counted tomorrow, or should he wait a month until the ballot is certified? Explain.

  122 Comments      


The ground game and Democratic and union turnout

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Democrats’ coordinated campaign…

Across Illinois, over 23,200 people knocked on doors and made phone calls over the final four days, many of them filling multiple volunteer shifts, as part of the IL Democratic Coordinated Campaign. There were 8,000 people on the street on election day alone

We knocked on over 975,000 doors and made over 380,000 phone calls over the last four days.

Over 50 percent of these voter contact efforts were concentrated in Cook County. These efforts resulted in higher than expected voter turnout within Chicago (over 50%). African American turnout was up from 2006 in many south side neighborhoods and southern Cook County townships.

ROBO CALLS IN FINAL FOUR DAYS:

80k VPOTUS
240k POTUS- “Vote tomorrow”
240k POTUS- “Vote today”

There are a lot of Democrats in this state, and when they vote (and they almost always do) they make a big difference. From the exit polling…

That’s a two-point drop in Democratic representation from 2006, and that led to some problems everywhere. But it could’ve been much worse. The ground game certainly helped keep this from being a total, complete Democratic disaster.

Illinois election day voters also had a far higher opinion of the Democratic Party than they did the Republican Party…

A 58 percent unfavorable for the GOP? Not great branding. And considering the beating the Democratic Party has taken in the media here, a 51 percent favorable is downright astounding. The result is also another indication that the Democratic Party did a better job of getting its people to the polls. And while David Miller probably didn’t have a chance against Topinka, the numbers suggest that he and Robin Kelly could’ve benefited from some coordinated campaign and/or state party help

David Miller believes state Democratic Party leaders and unions failed him Tuesday. Miller is a dentist, a state representative since 2001 and a resident of Lynwood.

On Tuesday, he was badly defeated in his campaign for state comptroller by Republican Judy Baar Topinka (52.9 percent to 40.6 percent of the vote).

“I think African-American political leaders are going to have to take a look at these races and ask what happened,” Miller said, referring to his defeat and that of Matteson resident Robin Kelly, who’s also black and was beaten by a Republican in the state treasurer’s race.

It would’ve also helped if Miller and Kelly had put together better campaigns on their own, of course. Nothing attracts campaign assistance like success.

* And don’t forget the unions

Quinn also latched onto organized labor. The Illinois Education Association alone scared the pants off suburban educators, convincing them Brady would decimate public education and pensions. The e-mails that circulated among teachers in the final weeks of the campaign pushed swing voters and women to vote against Brady.

Service Employees International Union, Teamsters, American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and dozens of other groups dumped gobs of money and resources into Quinn’s campaign.

“The unions pulled out all the stops because (Quinn) has been very kind to them,” said Andy Shaw, a veteran political reporter and now executive director of the Better Government Association. “It proves (that) in a ‘blue’ state unions still matter.”

Quinn didn’t win a super-gigantic percentage of the union household vote, but it was enough…

Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, union households are dropping. 32 percent told exit pollsters they lived in a union household four years ago. Still, if it wasn’t for that money the unions spent and the effort they put into the campaign, it would’ve been a much worse day for the Democrats.

* Election day voters seemed more liberal than recent polls have suggested. For instance, every poll taken before the election had pluralities or even majorities of likely Illinois voters favoring repeal of the federal health care legislation. Not on election day…

* Related…

* SJ-R: State needs timely election resolution

* Cook County tallies votes that could decide governor’s race

* Officials Doubt Brady Can Top Quinn’s Lead

* Quinn mum but reportedly optimistic

* Obama calls Quinn to offer congrats

* Simon: Outcome “Looking Good” for Democrats

* Simon, like everyone, waits out a nail-biter

* Schoenburg: Simon ‘brand,’ creationism might have aided Quinn

* If Brady needs a shoulder to cry on, he should call Kirk Dillard

* Brady’s mom knows the pain of politics, many times over

  40 Comments      


Suburbs, ideology and third partiers cost Brady dearly

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I am hearing this myself a lot these days from Republicans

Sneed is told GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bill Brady got machine-gunned by suburban women voters deluged by direct mailings last week highlighting his “socially-right-wing-not-exactly-pro-female agenda,” according to a GOP source.

Personal PAC did a whole lot of mail, as did other groups. Gov. Pat Quinn doesn’t believe in direct mail, so they had to pick up the slack.

* So, is this true? Well, Brady vastly outperformed Judy Baar Topinka’s 2006 numbers in the collars, but he underperformed Mark Kirk’s percentages…

Kirk also did much better than Brady in suburban Cook County…

Brady Cook suburbs: 276,432 (40%-53%)
Kirk Cook suburbs: 303,758 (44%-52%)

Kirk received almost 14,000 more votes than Brady in Chicago as well.

* The fact that Kirk outperformed Brady in the suburbs and in the city is no huge surprise, since Kirk is a suburban moderate. But Brady’s campaign made the fatal error of thinking they could make up the difference Downstate. Check out these Downstate totals…

Brady Downstate: 832,006
Kirk Downstate: 827,140

Brady simply did not concentrate enough time and effort on the suburbs. He was also never able to assuage suburban women that he wasn’t a wingnut, as Peter Fitzgerald was able to do in 1998. Brady wouldn’t send a moderate message and it cost him dearly

Just more than one-third of those casting ballots characterized themselves in exit polls as conservatives. Yet a greater proportion - more than two in five - said they were moderates, while one in five said they were liberals.

While almost three in five Kirk voters described themselves as conservatives, about two in five labeled themselves as moderates.

Even among supporters of the Tea Party movement, who overwhelmingly backed Kirk over Giannoulias, more than one-third described themselves as moderate or liberal.

Also, more than four in 10 voters identified with the Democratic Party, compared with just three in 10 who picked the GOP. And despite electing Kirk, Illinois voters did not show a preference for Republican control of the Senate.

* And for all you conservative folks who thought that Kirk wouldn’t play well Downstate, well, now you know how wrong you are.

Brady only received 7 more votes than Kirk in his home county of McLean. And his margin over Quinn was 259 votes less than Kirk’s margin over Giannoulias. Why? Third party and independent candidates.

Scott Lee Cohen spent big bucks and got 4 percent of the vote statewide. The other two third partiers received another 4 percent, for a total of 8 percent for the gubernatorial also-rans. In the US Senate race, the third party candidates received just 5 percent of the vote. That 3 percent was crucial. And it was more prominent in Chicago and the Cook suburbs, where third party and independent gubernatorial candidates received 8 percent while third party US Senate candiates received just 4 percent.

The Brady campaign could never figure out how to deal with Cohen, and his 4 percent really hurt them in that close race. What happened was that some people who couldn’t stand to vote for Quinn took a look at Brady and decided they couldn’t be with him, either, so they went with Cohen. I’m not really sure what they could’ve done, but they didn’t do anything and that was yet another major mistake.

* Now, there were other factors in this. Chicago’s turnout, for example. The superior Democratic ground game. Bigtime union involvement for Quinn. Etc. But Brady’s over-reliance on Downstate to carry the day and his refusal to spend more time and energy portraying himself as a moderate in the suburbs are both his fault. He couldn’t control the Democrats’ game. He could control his own.

…Adding… These exit poll results pretty much say it all…

Look at the difference in the female vote between the two candidates and the difference in how both genders voted for third party candidates. Brady was hurt both ways.

* Related…

* Officials Report Close To 52% Voter Turnout

* Wins For GOP Doesn’t Mean State Turning Red

* Illinois divided at polls

* Local party leaders mull GOP’s ‘phenomenal’ victories

* Southtown: Two years later, voters call for yet more change again

* Illinois Is GOP’s Only ‘Trophy’ Senate Win

* Kirk, Giannoulias Meet for “Beer Summit”

* Alexi and Mark have a beer at the Goat

* Kirk And Giannoulias Grab A Brew

* Kirk could be new senator by end of November

* Court order could expedite Kirk’s swearing in

* Kirk ready for first vote against Obama

* Kirk Victory Could Shift Senate’s Balance of Power in Lame Duck

* Sun-Times: Will the real Mark Kirk stand up for Illinois?

* Kirk supporters say it feels like decades since GOP has been able to celebrate

* If Kirk is Sworn In Early, Who Represents the 10th District?

  63 Comments      


Morning Shorts

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Creditors sue over Tribune deal, allege fraud in Zell’s buyout: A committee representing Tribune’s unsecured creditors filed two complaints targeting Tribune Chairman Sam Zell, the real estate mogul who engineered the buyout; other Tribune board members; former CEO Dennis FitzSimons and other former executives, accusing them of shirking their duties so they could line their own pockets. “This L.B.O. transaction is among the worst in American corporate history,” the complaint said, according to Reuters… The buyout was “tainted from start to finish,” one of the complaints contends.

* Tony Rezko, ex-Blagojevich fundraiser, has status hearing

* Fast harvest, but conditions dry statewide

* DuPage prosecutor Joe Birkett named appellate judge

* DuPage’s Birkett appointed to appellate court

* Birkett appointed to Appellate Court

* 4 Cook judges deemed unqualified by bar are retained by voters

* Schools boss Huberman exiting early

The front-runner to replace Huberman, sources said, is Terry Mazany, CEO of the Chicago Community Trust, which has poured a huge amount of money and energy into the Chicago Public Schools under Mazany’s leadership.

Huberman may stay on as paid consultant through January to assist in the transition to a new leadership team that could be changed yet again after a new mayor is seated May 16.

* Chicago schools chief to leave post this month

* Chicago Public Schools chief Huberman leaving end of Nov.

* Huberman to leave Chicago Public Schools

* Sun-Times: Huberman picks bad time to resign, but …

* Civic Federation warns of hazards in Daley budget

Instead of taking the easy way out by putting off tough choices until after the Feb. 22 election, Msall urged the City Council to: make $85.4 million in additional spending cuts recommended by Inspector General Joe Ferguson; create a formal “withdrawal policy” to protect proceeds from the sale of city assets and build up an unreserved cash balance expected to drop to an alarming $2.7 million.

Msall further demanded that aldermen diffuse the ticking time bomb created by $12.4 billion in unfunded pension liabilities that amount to $4,348 for every Chicago resident.

* Police Supt. Weis revises minimum age restriction plan

* Aldermen propose banning alcohol-caffeine drinks

* Ban of caffeinated alcoholic drinks is on the table

* Burke: Charge charities $10 per day to solicit donations on public way

* Stroger still deciding if he will fight Oglesby’s unemployment claim

* Stroger refuses to answer question onfinalists for watchdog post

* Cabrera new City Colleges board chairman

* Blue Island mayor on vote: ‘We got killed’

* Elgin officials get first look at 2011 budget

* Buffalo Grove village president apologizes for mocking recalled trustee

* Village president sorry for mocking opponent in a wig

* Judge OKs case against Harvey mayor, detective

* City, Naperville council struggle with wards decision

* Geneva attorney is nominee for Kane state’s attorney

* Perez claims Kane County Sheriff seat

* Jockeying begins for Lake County Board chairmanship

* Trail projects get $5M in funds

* Antioch to see grant for new pool

* Carpentersville OK’s Firearms School

* Naperville eyes $10 mil tax rebate for hotel project

* Nine communities express interest in FutureGen CO2 disposal site

* R.I. Republicans: ‘This party is not dead in Rock Island County’

* 2 laid-off East Moline officers get their jobs back

* Sangamon Co. voters reject sales tax hike for schools

* Decatur Township votes to raise its tax levy 4.95 percent to collect additional $75,000

* Education sales tax squeaks to win

* 183rd firefighters to be laid off next year

* SIU Announces Closure Days

* Fioretti: Cancer like getting ‘hit by train’

* Meeks to tour Southwest Side schools

  7 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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The precincts are all in and Quinn leads by 19,561 votes

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* With 11,209 of 11,209 precincts reporting, Gov. Pat Quinn leads Bill Brady by 19,561 votes.

They still have to count absentees and provisionals. There may yet be some adjustments in precinct counts. But that’s a big margin to overcome.

* Mark Brown

That’s why I was somewhat chagrined to hear Brady continue to declare Wednesday in Bloomington, “I believe we will win,” in explanation of his decision not to concede.

By all means, don’t concede while votes are uncounted, but that’s no reason to create a false expectation of winning that could end up feeding into the cynicism that election results are somehow rigged.

If he’s going to continue along this course, maybe the next time he could offer a more measured statement suggesting that he “could” still win while acknowledging the formidable odds. It would help him avoid coming across as a sore loser.

  90 Comments      


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