* I won’t be watching because I don’t live in Chicago, but if you’re in the area tune in to WTTW’s US Senate debate at 7 o’clock tonight and help us out in comments by live-blogging, please. Thanks. We’ve done this before and it’s been great.
* Also, the Pollster Who Shall Not Be Named released another poll today on the US Senate race. Once again, he didn’t include all the names. And “Some other candidate” received 5 percent of the vote. Go hear and read it yourself if you want.
* From the toplines, President Obama’s approval rating here is now 51 percent. Disapproval is at 48 percent. That’s about where Raz has always had him here. The Democrats have just a six-point advantage on the congressional generic ballot, which isn’t nearly enough…
* Thinking about this year’s elections - suppose that your vote determined which political party wins control of the U.S. Senate this year. Would you vote for the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
43% The Republican party
49% The Democratic party
8% Not sure
And then there’s this…
* Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party Movement?
22% Yes
63% No
15% Not sure
And…
* A proposal has been made to repeal the health care bill and stop it from going into effect. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a proposal to repeal the health care bill?
* Back in the day,a candidate could say something inappropriate to a small publication and nobody would notice right away. That Interwebtube thingy has forever changed all that, however. Take, for instance, Gov. Pat Quinn’s comments to a publication called “Grab Magazine”…
“Senator Brady doesn’t believe in equality for women and would rather LGBT people not exist,” said Quinn.
Really? Isn’t that just a slightly less blunt way of saying what Sen. Rickey Hendon said the other day? We’re awfully close to an invocation of Godwin’s Law in this campaign, if we’re not there already.
…Adding… Oops. I forgot to post these stories today. Sorry…
* The candidate who may have been “hurt” the most by the Daley/Rahm/etc. mayoral drama is Forrest Claypool. He was most certainly counting on a ton of earned media before the election, but editors have been too busy focusing on 2011 to care much about next Tuesday.
Today is a good case in point. Claypool held a press conference this morning at 10:30 to unveil some new information. Unfortunately for him, Sheriff Dart’s “I’m not running for mayor” presser was held exactly the same time. So, Claypool gets buried once again.
In a revealing look inside county government that is both more and less than it appears to be, assessor hopeful Forrest Claypool released a detailed study that he said shows a connection between campaign cash and government decisions. […]
The findings: Of $6.2 billion in assessment cuts awarded by the board this year to all property owners — residential, commercial and industrial — 92%, or $5.7 billion, went to those who used a lawyer who has donated to Mr. Berrios, Mr. Claypool said.
That translates to just under $1 billion in taxes that were shifted to other property owners, Mr. Claypool said.
Mr. Claypool has promised not to accept campaign donations from property tax lawyers. Doing so is like “the judge taking cash from the litigant in front of him, and then making a decision.”
Claypool also said he would recuse himself as assessor from ruling on assessments if he accepted campaign contributions. He’s taken money from some bigtime land owners.
* Berrios responded via press release…
“It’s almost laughable because he obviously doesn’t know how the office operates,” said Joe Berrios, Democratic candidate for assessor. “The assessor sets the assessments. He is required by law to do so. To hire a third-party or assign the duty to someone else would require legislative approval and ultimately cost taxpayers.” […]
Claypool not only accepts money from the likes of the Pritzkers and Sam Zell, but from Houlihan, which is pure evidence of his hypocrisy and double-standard, Berrios said. “Houlihan takes contributions from anyone – including property attorneys and real estate developers — and he then turns that money over to Claypool. Allowing Houlihan to be one of the largest funders demonstrates that Claypool isn’t being straight with voters,” Berrios said.
* The Question: After all the extreme negativity this year, can positive ads like this one break through all the last-week clutter and work? Explain.
* By the way, I let Barton pick the winner of yesterday’s “Cyclone contest,” and he chose Secret Square for this one…
The Capitol Fax Political Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Illinois in a High Risk for an outbreak of severe campaign rhetoric, damaging news leaks, destructive character attacks, and attack ads gusting to 75 words per minute until 7 p.m. next Tuesday.
SS should e-mail me with his/her particulars. Congratulations and thanks to all!
An Illinois county election official is telling the ABC 7 I-Team that thousands — potentially hundreds of thousands — of voters who are expecting a ballot sent to them by mail may be disenfranchised.
That may be an exaggeration, but it’s at least thousands. This is a massive screwup. But the Lake County Clerk has to follow the law, so her sorrows are her own problem…
The Lake County clerk received a shipment of 500 ballot requests from the IDCC Tuesday. By law, her office has two days to process the ballot requests. The problem is, Thursday is the deadline for election officials to get the ballots out.
IDCC told the clerk that another 1,500 ballot requests are headed to her office, which, she says, may not give her enough time to process all the ballots, potentially disenfranchising voters.
There’s an even worse problem, though. Subscribers already know what that is. Basically, if you sign the application and stick it in the mail, it is sent to the coordinated campaign. They then process the applications and send them to the clerks. But lots of people got their absentee applications yesterday. The deadline for sending them in is Thursday. If those recipients signed the apps and send them in today, the earliest the coordinated campaign will get them is Thursday, which, again, is the deadline day. Considering the US Postal Service’s record, the Democrats will probably get a ton of applications after the deadline. This was just a horribly designed plan.
And then there’s this…
Carter and others who contacted the I-Team are furious that their vote may also be thrown out because the IDCC put the registered voters’ wrong birthdate on the form.
The coordinated campaign says that only one percent of the applications have the wrong birth date. It’s probably way more than that. But, again, Goudie is exaggerating here. Birth dates aren’t required information in some areas, including the city of Chicago. And it’s not their “vote” which may be thrown out. It’s the ballot application.
Either way, though, this stupidity is causing huge problems and mass confusion.
A Chicago elections board spokesman told me yesterday that voters who get these late applications should just download a form from the board itself and mail it in by Thursday. The Chicago media and every other state media outlet needs to get on this one fast. People need to know that their party might’ve just accidentally shafted them.
And this is another really bad thing…
Forty-five of the ballots the Lake County clerk received Tuesday from the [Democratic coordinated campaign] should have gone to Will County.
That’s almost ten percent of the ballot requests she received yesterday.
Idiots.
…Adding… A Daily Kos diarist wondered aloud yesterday if these flawed ballot applications might be some sort of Rovian trick…
I just noticed something strange, and I don’t know if it is a genuine mistake or some sort of evil trick. […]
I’d hate to think it is an evil plot by Karl Rove to dupe a lot of people into unwittingly committing “voter fraud.”
Nope. Karl Rove isn’t trying to suppress Democratic voters. The Dems are doing it to their own kind. And they’ll probably end up suppressing more votes than Mark Kirk and the Illinois Republican Party ever could, despite Alexi Giannoulias’ many claims.
If either Pat Quinn or Giannoulias lose by a few thousand votes, they may have their own party’s coordinated campaign to blame.
*** UPDATE 1 *** Illinois Review diarist “Ghost of John Brown” received an absentee ballot app mailer today from a Republican group…
Today Mrs. Ghost and I both received mailers from the Alliance for America’s Future, which is a group operated by Dick Cheney’s daughter, Mary. The mailer encourages you to go to a personalized website so you can get an absentee ballot. Click [here] for a full view. The trouble is that at least in my County, an absentee ballot has to be mailed out five days ahead of time, which is Thursday. How likely is it that if you fill out the on-line form that your election board will be able to mail out the ballot in time? Not likely. However, you might THINK that you are getting one, and fail to vote.
Sheesh. Both sides are suppressing their own voters. What a mess.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Blogger’s blogger OneMan received three absentee apps from that same Republican group yesterday.
* I told subscribers about this weeks ago. At least it seems like weeks ago…
State lawmakers are quietly exploring how to push through a major gambling expansion during next month’s fall session, the political safety zone that will open and shut over a few weeks following Tuesday’s election.
The details are evolving, but one version would put a land-based casino in Chicago and new riverboats in Lake County, the south suburbs and downstate Danville. Horse tracks would get video gambling to create “racinos,” and existing riverboats would be allowed to expand. Supporters are dangling the prospect of more than $400 million upfront and hundreds of millions more as the casinos come online for a state that can’t pay its bills.
Slipping through big-ticket items during lame-duck sessions is nothing new in Illinois. In the past, lawmakers have raised their pay, legalized off-track betting and cut a deal to rebuild Soldier Field into its current saucerlike shape. Legislators who aren’t returning have little to lose in casting controversial votes, creating a deal-making atmosphere inside the Capitol.
“I don’t think that’s a good idea” Gov. Quinn told the paper. Brady’s response…
“There are a lot of dangerous things that you always fear in a lame-duck session when one party loses power,” Brady said. “They should wait until the newly elected people of the state of Illinois can weigh in on it.”
Unless it has no immediate effective date, any gaming bill would have to get three-fifths majorities in both chambers during the veto session. They could, however, pass a bill with an immediate effective date in January before the new General Assembly is sworn in. If Brady wins the governor’s race, they could conceivably pass more than one bill that way. The Republicans blazed that trail in 1997, after the Democrats took back the House.
* In other campaign news, the State Journal-Register has decided to endorse Bill Brady for governor because the Democrats have failed to govern together…
If we have learned anything from the past eight years, it is this: Illinois Democrats don’t work well together.
When Rod Blagojevich was sworn in as governor in 2003, it marked the first time since the Dan Walker administration ended in 1977 that Democrats held the governor’s office and controlled both the Illinois House and Senate. Except for a two-year span during the Jim Edgar administration when Republicans controlled both houses, the parties shared power in some form for 26 years under Republican governors. Democrats and Republicans didn’t join hands and sing “Kumbaya” during this time, but things generally got done under shared power.
That’s why today we endorse Republican state Sen. Bill Brady for governor. In fact, it’s the only reason we endorse Brady.
They don’t care for Brady at all, and that’s an understatement…
We’re far from confident that Brady will fare better as governor.
But…
We can only hope that maybe, as a Republican governor, Brady will manage to stir enough across-the-aisle cooperation to break the stalemate that finds Illinois in a deep hole and sinking fast.
This actually does make some logical sense. Republican governors can generally convince at least some Republican legislators to go along with them while the governors try to make deals with Democratic chamber leaders. How the Democrats react to Brady, however, is unknown at the moment.
Republican State Senator Bill Brady says he has no knowledge of disparaging remarks made by commentator Glenn Beck about first lady Michelle Obama while at a “Right Nation” event last month. That’s despite the fact that Brady spoke at the event.
Brady, the GOP nominee for governor, says he will not apologize for his party, despite Governor Quinn suggesting he was at the Beck appearance and clapping as Beck made an off color remark about Michelle Obama’s healthy eating plan.
“The governor’s got to realize that just because he says something, it doesn’t make it true. I was not at the Glenn Beck event… I don’t know what Glenn Beck said,” Brady said.
The ellipsis conceals that Brady actually said: “I was not at the Glenn Beck event with Glenn Beck.”
A prominent religious leader wants both Governor Pat Quinn and State Senator Rickey Hendon to apologize for comments Hendon made backing Quinn’s re-election campaign.
Bishop Larry Trotter of Sweet Holy Spirit Church claimed mudslinging that takes politics into the gutter is inappropriate. He referred to Hendon’s charge that State Senator Bill Brady, the republican nominee for governor, is sexist and racist.
“You and I may be on 2 different teams, but we don’t have to be ugly about it. It may push toward more voter apathy than if they just dealt with the issues, and left one another alone,” said Bishop Trotter.
“It’s like every time [Hendon] gets up, he’s in a rage. And I really want to talk to him, because there are a lot of people who like him. But they want to see a different — I mean he’s delivered as a senator. They want to see a different Rickey when he’s projected on a microphone. He said something terrible about Carol Moseley Braun the other week,” Trotter said.
Quinn was on a Fox Chicago program this morning and the Hendon thing came up. Watch…
* Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart is announcing at a 10:30 press conference this morning that he won’t run for mayor. A top inside source confirmed the rumors earlier today which have been swirling since last night. The source choked up at times with emotion.
Dart has a large and very young family, and the time away from them would be just too much to bear, I’m told.
To be mayor means to “be less of a father,” Dart said at a news conference Wednesday.
“This time, it’s not something that would work for my family,” said Dart, who has five children.
He said fund-raising would not have been an issue for him in a race that would have pitted him against a champion fund-raiser, former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, the former congressman from the Northwest Side.
“I have found it impossible for it to be compatible between running for mayor and being a father and husband,” Dart said at the news conference.
“I’m disappointing people, but at the end of the day I have to look myself in the mirror,” he said of those who wanted him to run for mayor.
Dart said no back channel overtures were made by other candidates to encourage him to get out of the race. “I haven’t spoken to any other candidates at all,” he said, with the exception of Gutierrez calling him after the congressman announced he wasn’t running.
Dart said he did not call any of the other candidates and said he has “no intention” of doing so.
* Mayoral roundup…
* Potential Mayoral Picks Narrowed To Meeks, Braun
* Emanuel sitting down with city education leaders as he plots schools policy
* Sneed: Emanuel creates first Spanish version of mayoral website
* Chico media firm has Democratic ties from Chicago to Washington
* The spots aren’t posted online as I write this, but the DCCC is spending big bucks during the coming week on TV ads in two Illinois campaigns. From the Hotline…
IL-10 Open (Kirk) $590,722
IL-14 Bill Foster (D) $526,917
IL-17 Phil Hare (D) $92,158
Phil Hare’s district is cheaper to advertise in, and I’m not sure what the DCCC has already booked, so I’m withholding judgment at the moment about what that particular figure means. Noticeably absent is Debbie Halvorson, who the polls show is trailing badly, and Melissa Bean, whose Republican opponent has no money.
* The DSSC has a new TV ad connecting Mark Kirk to George W. Bush. Rate it…
* JUSTPAC has a new TV ad whacking Supreme Court Chief Justice Kilbride. Rate it…
* The Tribune editorialized on the JUSTPAC ads today…
You’ve probably heard one of those snarling radio or television ads aimed at bouncing Illinois Supreme Court Justice Thomas Kilbride from the bench.
Three actors portray criminals, describing their vicious crimes’ vivid detail. “On appeal, Justice Thomas Kilbride sided with us over law enforcement or our victims,” one says. “Unfortunately for felons like us, other justices overruled Kilbride and our convictions stood.”
No, Kilbride didn’t hand out Get Out Of Jail Free passes to rabid criminals. He brands that ad and others as “gross distortions” of his record in criminal cases.
But crime isn’t the prime issue in this race. Politics is. The Illinois Supreme Court has four Democrats and three Republicans. A switch of one seat would shift the balance of power.
* John McCain had his plumber, Pat Quinn has his welder and now Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky has an electrician…
* Schakowsky’s opponent Joel Pollak claims that this is no ordinary electrician. From a press release…
The facts about Sindelar reveal that Schakowsky’s not fighting for workers–she’s fighting for her political cronies, including Sindelar.
Sindelar is a Democrat insider with close ties to the party machine:
Sindelar is the Treasurer of “Citizens for Elaine Nekritz,” the official campaign committee for State Representative Elaine Nekritz (D-57) (http://tinyurl.com/2bsf9v5)
Sindelar filed a successful ballot challenge against Nekritz’s Republican opponent in 2006, Wayne Berzon, who was struck off the ballot (http://tinyurl.com/2dxejlx)
Sindelar ran for Assessor in Maine Township in 2005 as a Democrat against Republican Tom Rueckert, and lost (http://tinyurl.com/25nakav)
Sindelar was paid $1000 in January 2010 by Blagojevich appointee Bill Brandt, Chair of the Illinois Finance Authority, as Brandt began his campaign for 10th District Democratic State Central Committeeman (http://tinyurl.com/276trl9)
Sindelar and his wife have donated thousands of dollars to individual Democrats and party organizations over the past several years (search http://tinyurl.com/22mdeoo)
Sindelar has been paid for consulting work by the Maine Township Regular Democratic Organization (search http://tinyurl.com/2dcdrfj)
* First of all, Rep. Nekritz is not a “Machine” Democrat. She was the only Democrat who voted against Speaker Madigan’s rules two years ago, for crying out loud. I did my own searches and found $2600 in campaign contributions made by Sindelar and his wife since September of 2001. I guess that allows Pollack to claim “thousands” in contributions, but that’s an average of just $289 a year. Sindelar was paid $400 by Maine Township five years ago. Yeah, he’s some player.
Just for the heck of it, I checked campaign contributions made by my handyman. Tony and his wonderful wife have contributed $2,247 to Republicans since 2000 - not much different than Schakowsky’s alleged “Machine Democrat” electrician. Tony is also listed as the handyman for the local county party. Do those contributions and expenditures make my handyman a Republican hack? Heck no. He’s a fine, upstanding American who likes to be involved in the American Way. Does his activism make Tony less of a handyman? Absolutely not. He’s the best handyman ever, in my opinion. I absolutely love the guy and recommend him all the time to Democrats, Republicans and to folks who I have no idea what party they belong to.
There’s nothing at all wrong with people being an electrician or a handyman and at the same time being politically active. This would be America, after all.
* Let’s look at some Internet promo videos. First up, Otis McDonald, of the landmark McDonald v Chicago gun control case has endorsed Bill Brady for governor. The video is long and slow-paced and doesn’t get to the point until 3:50 into it…
Good man. Bad video.
* I think this is an Internet video, but am not sure. “Seals” for Dold…
…Adding… Politico says that the seal is actually a sea lion. Oops
“I’m what they call a 99er,” the 43-year-old Oak Lawn resident said.
I had heard of 49ers, in reference to the football team in San Francisco and to the California Gold Rush. But I didn’t have a clue what a 99er is.
“It means I’ve gone past Tier 4 in unemployment benefits, which goes to 99 weeks,” Hannah explained. “So they call those of us who are no longer eligible for unemployment ‘99ers.’ ”
And so the Great Recession has created its own language.
No one knows the exact number of 99ers, although the government estimates that they represent about 10 percent of all the people who are jobless. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, that’s 1.4 million Americans, but the number in all likelihood is much greater.
Two Chicago police officers are suing Supt. Jody Weis, alleging the city’s top cop defamed them when he stripped them of their badges after a high-profile internal investigation was launched into a group of officers who allegedly beat a handcuffed suspect.
A global-positioning device in the officers’ squad car showed the Gresham District Tactical Unit officers, Lynn Meuris and Jason Vanna, weren’t present during the alleged Oct. 11 beating and they were returned to street duty .
Outgoing Mayor Richard M. Daley took a couple of stabs at one-stop-shopping for permits and the like, but the fact is, Chicago remains an extraordinarily difficult place for someone with a good idea but little time and capital to get on his or her feet.
Historical accounts indicate that in DuPage, only the late Elmhurst City Manager Robert Palmer, who held his post from July 1953 until December 1983, served longer. And next spring, Rose will surpass Palmer to become the county’s longest-serving city manager.
After receiving millions of dollars in state assistance over the past decade, Keystone Steel & Wire Co., stunned area legislators by hiring out-of-state labor for a current plant upgrade. […]
What the company requested and received was a lower employment threshold to qualify for a utility tax exemption. The exemption is normally granted only to companies with employment of at least 1,000 people.
When layoffs at the Bartonville plant caused employment to dip to 165 salaried workers and 668 hourly workers, the utility tax would normally have kicked in.
A bill signed by Gov. Pat Quinn last January extended the company’s utility tax exemption, a move that saves Keystone an estimated $120,000 to $140,000 a month.
* I posted a Bill Brady ad earlier today that brought up Rod Blagojevich right off the bat. Another ad, called “Partner,” is far more negative with the Blagojevich stuff. Rate it…
…Adding… The ad falsely claims that Gov. Quinn stuck taxpayers “with a $250 million pay raise for government workers.” The alleged “deal” with AFSCME was about layoffs. AFSCME’s contract, which included the pay raises, was negotiated by Rod Blagojevich.
To refresh your memory, here’s that other ad, which goes positive at the end…
* And for some nighttime viewing, the SJ-R has posted raw video from their gubernatorial endorsement sessions…
Former President Bill Clinton’s ‘get out the vote’ rally for Democrats at a downtown Chicago hotel was the most unenthusiastic WLS veteran political reporter Bill Cameron has ever witnessed.
Clinton was an hour late for the Tuesday afternoon rally at the Palmer House and droned on for another hour, sending dozens of the few hundred Democrats in attendance for the exits.
The “few hundred” turnout number appears to be way off. I talked to a reporter who was there who said at least a thousand people showed up. The official number given by the Quinn campaign was 1,300, and the Sun-Times used that figure.
After taking the stage almost an hour behind scheudule, Bill Clinton fired up the crowd of more than 1,000 inside the historic Palmer House Hilton saying, “We are all here. Now the question is, what are we going to do?”
“Fired up” does not sound to me like “most unenthusiastic rally ever.” According to my reporter friend, Clinton did indeed “drone on” for a long time. WBEZ said the speech sounded “more like a college professor’s lecture than a rallying cry for Democrats.” A sample…
“You can win every race represented on this stage,” Clinton told 1,300 cheering Democrats at the Palmer House Hilton.
“You could also lose every single one of them. It depends on how bad you want this and whether you know what to say to the people who are not here.”
I’m told the crowd reaction was strong. Also, my friend said, only a few people actually walked out. That’s normal for an event which started an hour late because of the big storm.
The Brady campaign e-mailed WLS’ story probably hoping to gin something up. But I think WLS’ coverage may be a better angle. They pushed that totally goofy “Greek draft dodger” story every hour on the hour during their news programs yesterday.
It would be a real shame if the attitude of the station’s right-leaning infotainment jocks has now overtaken WLS’ news desk. That used to be a great station.
When the former president began his speech, the Palmer House ballroom was half filled with enthusiastic Democratic Party workers. By the time Clinton finished, the candidates he promoted had been standing behind him for nearly an hour and the room was at best a third filled.
* Some suburban [and, according to commenters, Downstate] residents received a curious looking direct mailer the other day. I apologize for the quality. It was scanned and e-mailed to me by a friend. Here’s the front…
Venture inside and you’ll see this…
Libertarian Mike Labno has the money for mail? And he’s using it to blast Mark Kirk?…
But it isn’t from Labno. Check out the return address…
And there’s a pro-Giannoulias message as well, which kinda defeats the whole purpose…
* The idea here, obviously, is to peel off a few conservative votes from Kirk and send them to Labno. But I just don’t see this working since it’s paid for by the Democrats and features a big pic of Giannoulias. Not many “true” conservatives will fall for that.
…Adding… A commenter rightly notes that the vast majority of people will only see the cover of this mailer. That’s why I wasn’t as harsh as I could’ve been about the piece. You get a few seconds between the time they see it and the time they pitch it in the garbage can. Also, from a trusted politico…
I seriously doubt they are sending only a single piece. That’s not how mail guys work. They send waves. So, you’re probably seeing the first of 2 or 3 which says Labano is pro life and pro gun and Kirk isn’t
* Roundup…
* Clinton exhorts Democrats to turn back Republican tide: “They have relentlessly, in a uniform and unified way” played on people’s anger, Clinton said. But he said that anger should be focused on Republicans. “We only get hired as Democrats, really, when things are messed up,” he said. He urged Democrats to ensure that President Barack Obama, who returns to Chicago this weekend for his own rally, gets the continued support of a Democratic Congress.
* A new Fox News poll left out one the candidates’ names (Libertarian Lex Green), which is just ridiculous. But “Some other candidate” took 1 percent, which is about in line with other recent polling.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters taken October 23rd has Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 44-39. Independent Scott Lee Cohen has 6 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney has 4 percent.
According to the poll, Quinn leads among women voters just a single point. He has just 64 percent of the “non-white” vote, while Brady has 12, Whitney has 6 and Cohen has 5. Quinn has just 74 percent support among Democrats, but Brady has 87 percent backing among Republicans. Independents break heavily 45-27 to Brady. All those numbers are pretty much right in line with other recent polling.
Among those who have already voted, 58 percent said they cast their ballot for Quinn, while 37 percent were with Brady. That could help put some of these early voting stories into context.
43 percent said the policies of the Obama administration have hurt Illinois’ economy, while just 31 percent said it helped and 23 percent said it made no difference. Just 44 percent said Obama’s policies will help the country in the long run, while 47 percent said they’ll hurt. 45 percent strongly or somewhat support the tea party, while 43 percent oppose it. 11 percent were neutral. 49 percent of women opposed it, while 37 percent supported it.
When is a tea party-sponsored event for Republican governor nominee Bill Brady not a tea party-sponsored event? When Brady is the one promoting it, apparently.
Brady’s campaign today sent out an e-mail promoting the “final stop on Brady’s suburban ‘Clean Break Express’ tour” on Wednesday in southwest suburban Homer Glen. Appearing with Brady will be Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Bob McDonnell of Virginia.
But in promoting the event, dubbed “Crunch Time 2010,” Brady’s campaign made no mention of the fact that the Will County Tea Party Alliance is hosting the event. The tea party group and a variety of conservative groups are promoting attendance by saying, “Tea Partiers, Independents, Republicans, Conservatives, and Libertarians will gather together in Homer Glen to prepare for the final drive to victory.”
A top White House official blamed “extraneous factors” for Democrats’ troubles this fall in President Obama’s home state.
White House senior adviser David Axelrod blamed the political fallout from former Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s (D) time in office for some of the difficulties now facing Alexi Giannoulias (D) in his race for the president’s old Senate seat and Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) bid for reelection.
“There were some extraneous factors in Illinois this year,” Axelrod said on MSNBC, “including a lot of contretemps about how the president was replaced.”
* The Fox News pollster only included two names in its US Senate poll, so I’m not reporting the results here. Go see it for yourself.
As of Monday 52,900 city residents had cast ballots, according to the Board of Elections. That’s less than one-third of the early vote in the extraordinary Barack Obama year of 2008, but more than twice the 2006 total of 24,800. The early polls remain open until Thursday evening.
Some folks who watch these numbers say they indicate that overall city turnout now is headed well above 50% — absolutely critical if the Ds are to give GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady and U.S. Senate hopeful Mark Kirk a competitive race.
Early turnout in the city now is approaching the 55,000 total in suburban Cook County, the latter number from County Clerk David Orr. But while the city already has more than doubled its final 2006 number, the county still is a bit shy of that mark; 33,000 voted early then. […]
Meanwhile, the Lake County Clerk’s Office reports 24,885 early voters as of Tuesday morning, somewhat above the 18,437 who voted early in 2006, and under a third of the final 2008 figure of 83,000.
Totals are softer in DuPage County. According to the clerk’s office 21,400 have voted as of Tuesday morning. That about matches the final 2006 number of 21,232 and is under a quarter of the final 2008 number of 96,000.
In addition to early voting, remember that people can vote absentee without an excuse this year.
A Republican operative with access to number crunching came up with a wider view of what’s occurring — and a different spin.
According to that source, while 55,000 Chicagoans so far have voted early and roughly 36,000 in sububan Cook, 82,000 have done so in the fiive suburban collar counties and 67,000 Downstate.
The turnout this year may double that of 2006, a release from [Cook County Clerk David Orr’s] office said. “We anticipate at least doubling the 33,000 early voting ballots cast in the 2006 gubernatorial election,” Orr said. “Twenty of our 43 locations have served 1,000 voters or more and the busiest days may still be ahead.”
The Orland Park Village Hall, (3,981), Wheeling Township Hall (3,681), Northbrook Village Hall (3,034) and Centennial Park in Wilmette (2,458) are the busiest sites after two weeks, the release said.
Many election experts expected up to 10 percent of voters to vote early. But with only a few days left before early voting closes, many of the state’s larger counties have fallen short of that number.
In Sangamon County, Stacey Kern, director of the election office, said she has seen less than 3 percent of registered voters show up for early voting. […]
Georgia Volm, County Clerk of Adams County, said she has seen less than 5 percent of registered voters show up to vote early.
Farther north in Rock Island County, Dianna Ruhl, Acting County Clerk, said she has seen a little less than 7 percent turnout for early voting.
Pamela McCullough, County Clerk for Boone County, said this fall has had heavy turnout for both early voting and absentee voting in the county. She said her office has seen 391 early voters since Oct. 18 out of 33,679 registered voters.< /blockquote>
A federal judge will hear testimony Tuesday on a Republican bid to widen the scope of an agreement giving six Illinois counties more time to count military and overseas ballots.
Under terms of a pact inked Friday between the state and the U.S. Department of Justice, three counties -Boone, Jersey and St. Clair -have until Nov. 18 to count ballots that are returned from overseas voters. Schuyler, Massac and Hancock counties have until Nov. 19.
All other counties and election authorities - even those that were late in sending out some of the military ballots - will have to count returned ballots by Nov. 16. In all, nearly a third of Illinois election authorities missed a Sept. 18 deadline to send out the military ballots.
* Unions labor to rally rank and file for elections - Democrats are counting on an intense get-out-the-vote effort to help their chances in key states.
There were 278 home sales in the Springfield area during September, a 24.3 percent decrease from the 367 homes sold in Sept. 2009, according to the Capital Area Association of Realtors.
The drop-off year-to-date isn’t as precipitous, with 2,664 homes sold through Sept. in 2010 and 2,773 home sales over the same period last year. That’s a 3.9 percent decrease.
The Chicago Tribune’s Sunday circulation dropped 4.4% to 768,073 papers, while weekday circulation slipped 5.2% to 441,508.
Rival Sun-Times’ Sunday circulation declined 5.5% to 237,367 papers. Weekday circulation fell 9% to 250,747.
The 47-year-old Beal was placed on paid leave from his $160,000-per-year job on Oct. 18 after an independent audit found a discrepancy that showed a “significant amount” of money unaccounted for in the agency’s financial records, according to SWANCC officials.
While officials won’t confirm how much money is unaccounted for, sources have said it could be as much as $400,000.
The new Chicago to Quad-Cities to Iowa City route would provide two daily round-trips. The project is expected to create 588 jobs per year for the four years of design and construction. The completed line is expected to increase business activity by $25 million per year, according to a release from Sen. Durbin’s office.
* Selection process opens for FutureGen carbon project
Communities have until next Monday to declare their intentions and until Nov. 15 to submit formal bids. An informational meeting for potential bidders, followed by a public open house, has been scheduled for Thursday in Springfield.
This new approach has been used for up to 15 years in dozens of cities, including Boston, Cincinnati and Indianapolis. For now, Chicago is using its Violence Reduction Strategy only in the Harrison District on the West Side.
The concepts are the same in each city, said David Kennedy, the criminologist who designed the idea.
Gangs are responsible for most shootings and homicides, violence that is promoted and expected within the gang, Kennedy said. Yet much of the violence is not committed to protect the gang’s business — it’s often personal disputes and vendettas, he said. And if the entire gang has to endure an investigation every time there is a shooting, behavior changes, he said.
* Judge rules Chicago principal should be reinstated
Other neighborhoods where rat sightings were prominent include the South Loop, Lakeview/Wrigleyville, Lincoln Park and West Loop. At the bottom of the list of 21 Chicago neighborhoods in the survey were North Center and Lincoln Square.
WQAD-TV Thursday night reported on its website that state officers are investigating allegations against Mr. Terronez, including one that he purchased alcohol for minors. The information was attributed to a “source close to the investigation.”
Additionally, Mr. Terronez was edited out of a television commercial supporting Illinois Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride, who is up for retention this year. According to a spokesman for Justice Kilbride,the decision was made because of the reports of a state police investigation of the prosecutor.
* My intern Barton Lorimor asked me late last night if I’d heard about the cyclone heading for Chicago. I hadn’t, but I looked it up on the Interwebtubes and discovered the media was reporting that ALL CHICAGOANS ARE GOING TO DIE!!! OK, let’s hope nobody gets hurt. Seriously. I don’t want anything bad to happen to anyone.
Anyway, here is a very small portion of our subsequent online instant messaging. Much of it, as you might imagine, was unprintable…
BARTON: I’m sure Mark Kirk has some combat experience that could save us all
RICH: Pat Quinn will give the storm a capital project to settle it down
BARTON: Only if Vaught goes with
RICH: Brady will cut the storm’s strength by ten percent
RICH: But he’ll actually have to cut it by 40 percent, so he’ll raise taxes instead
BARTON: Bobby Schilling says it doesn’t believe in the Constitution
RICH: Steve Brown, of course, will say that the storm is “under review”
BARTON: Ramey says this wouldn’t have happened if we had just dealt with the state’s immigration policy
RICH: Rich Whitney will protest that the storm didn’t invite him
BARTON: Bill Black can’t understand why we’re talking about this and not the budget
RICH: And then resign. AGAIN
BARTON: Will Burns just introduced the cyclone hair braiding permit bill
RICH: My interns will videotape it and die
BARTON: Meh, send Dan
Your turn.
And keep it clean, campers. I don’t have time to police your every word today. Plus, I was up late joking with Barton last night. I’m tired.
Plummer found himself immediately on the defensive as he struggled to answer why he refused to release his income tax returns when quizzed by moderator Phil Ponce on WTTW-TV’s “Chicago Tonight.”
“It’s not a leadership issue,” said Plummer, who is the running mate of Bill Brady, the Republican candidate for governor. “It’s just, I think, a privacy issue.”
Plummer tried to dismiss the question, saying he won’t let Simon or her running mate, Gov. Pat Quinn, distract voters with “these silly issues.”
“That’s not an issue that’s ever come up with the voters,” Plummer said.
The two differed starkly over a host of issues, including rights to carry hidden weapons. Plummer said it should be allowed as long as a gun owner meets key requirements. Simon said flatly that it shouldn’t be permitted.
Creation was another point of dissension. Plummer said he believed in a Biblical version of creation, although he said local districts should decide whether it was appropriate to teach that in schools.
But he paused and declined to answer directly about whether he thought the earth was created in six days and is a mere 10,000 years old
“My faith is my faith,” he said. “But that that’s not an issue voters are talking about.”
* And Green Party nominee Rich Whitney protested outside WTTW with some high school kids…
* There just isn’t any good news for Gov. Pat Quinn in the Tribune’s new poll. For instance…
Among independent voters, Brady’s backing improved 10 percentage points in the new survey while Quinn’s support remained about the same.
Brady’s now leading 47-28 among independents. If this poll is correct then they’re breaking hard his way.
* More bad news for Quinn…
Indeed, Brady now has the support of 85 percent of voters who call themselves Republican, up from 79 percent four weeks ago. Quinn’s support among self-identified Democrats has increased from 71 percent to 75 percent during the same time period. […]
Slightly more than half of black voters viewed Quinn favorably, just two-thirds supported him and more than a quarter are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. Among women statewide, Quinn has a narrow 43 percent to 38 percent advantage over Brady. Among white suburban women, the two men are statistically even at about 40 percent support.
Tied among white suburban women. Nice job, governor. Better roll out that puppy ad.
* And this is just bizarre when you think about how much money has been spent attempting to define Brady…
The poll indicates a sizable chunk of voters — nearly one in three — still have no opinion of Brady despite a year of campaigning for the state’s highest office. That Brady now has a slight lead in the poll indicates a willingness among many voters to seek change during a time of economic uncertainty and go with an unfamiliar candidate rather than a better-known commodity like Quinn.
Scott Lee Cohen was at 5 percent, Rich Whitney was at 4 and Lex Green was at 2. Another 6 percent are undecided.
* The poll also found that Bill Brady has increased his support in the collar counties by 11 points, while Gov. Quinn fell by 8. The tally there now is 50-38. But the last Tribune poll had the two tied in the collars, which nobody really believed. The new number seems much closer to reality and indicates that the paper’s previous poll (which had Quinn leading Brady 39-38) could’ve been an outlier.
The only possibly good news for Quinn is that since the poll was taken Monday through Friday, much of these results are a week or almost a week old. It’s possible that he’s moved up since then. Then again, he could’ve also moved down.
* Meanwhile, most of the down-ballot statewide races are blowouts, which is no surprise. The only close contest is for treasurer…
Republican state Sen. Dan Rutherford held a 42 percent to 38 percent edge over Democrat Robin Kelly, a former south suburban lawmaker and current chief of staff to Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The poll’s error margin is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Rutherford, who lost a run for secretary of state four years ago, held a 3-to-1 cash advantage. He launched broadcast TV ads in the Chicago area in mid-October.
Kelly did best among Chicago voters, with 61 percent to Rutherford’s 11 percent. Rutherford led Kelly in the collar counties, 53 percent to 31 percent, and downstate, 51 percent to 29 percent. Both candidates had 41 percent support in suburban Cook County.
Independent voters broke toward Rutherford, who had 46 percent to Kelly’s 25 percent.
Judy Baar Topinka is creaming David Miller 57-26. Lisa Madigan is crushing her opponent 69-21. And Jesse White is absolutely trouncing his Republican opponent 72-18.
*** UPDATE *** After answering several questions about DC minister Willie Wilson’s past earlier this afternoon, the Kirk campaign now says that the Willie Wilson at the event is from the Chicago area. Here’s his bio. Strange, that.
Wilson is apparently a deacon at Christ Temple Baptist Church in Markham. Deacons aren’t usually called “Reverend.”
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* I’m really not sure why I’m supposed to care that a Washington, DC minister just endorsed Mark Kirk…
Willie Wilson, a nationally prominent black pastor, announced his backing of Rep. Mark Kirk in the Illinois Senate race Monday, bucking his long tradition of supporting Democrats and splitting his endorsements at the top of the state ballot.
Wilson’s blessing is meant to signal to black voters that the Republican candidate is an acceptable option in one of the nastiest and closest Senate contests in the country.
“It’s about the man, not the party,” said Wilson, a pastor at Union Temple Baptist Church in Washington.
The Giannoulias campaign dismisses the endorsement, claiming Wilson is “not the leader of the Westside.”
Well, he’s not. Rev. Wilson’s church is in Washington, DC.
* From the Kirk campaign press release about Wilson’s endorsement…
Today’s endorsement follows another by the City News – an African American owned weekly newspaper serving Kankakee, Will and Southern Cook Counties.
That endorsement was made way back on April 22nd. And the paper has a long history of endorsing Republicans. The paper backed Adam Kinzinger against Debbie Halvorson, and Isaac Hayes over Jesse Jackson, Jr. The paper also endorsed Scott Lee Cohen back in July.
Basically, what’s happening is that Kirk is attempting to counter the continuing argument by Giannoulias that Kirk’s “election integrity” program is targeted at black voters.
* And I really can’t believe that WLS Radio picked up on this story. Oh, wait. Nevermind. It’s WLS Radio…
Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias may have been better served to reserve attacks on opponent Mark Kirk’s military service record should a report by a Greek law office prove true.
According to a report by The Weekly Standard, Giannoulias, who holds dual citizenship in Greece, may have dodged the Greek draft while he lived in the country from 1998 to 1999.
Legal analysis prepared by an Athens-based law firm and obtained by The Weekly Standard found that Giannoulias lied to reporters when his campaign told the State Journal-Register he wouldn’t be required to serve in the Greek armed forces because he was not a permanent resident.
So, he may have been required to serve in the Greek army and he didn’t. I’m not sure I care.
The Giannoulias campaign has composed a model that includes every voter in Illinois with a grade from zero to 100, a score of 100 meaning they are most likely to vote for Giannoulias.
So far, of the 150,000 Illinois voters who voted early as of Thursday morning, 54 percent of them scored 50 or above on that predictor, Rendina said.
Among those more intensely for Giannoulias or Kirk, the most-likely Giannoulias voters — those scoring 70-100, accounted for 47 percent of the early votes.
Those judged to be most likely to be Kirk supporters — scoring 0-30 — accounted for only 38 percent of early votes.
There is a lot of guessing involoved there, Rendina admits. Not everyone will vote as predicted. The projections are based on past tallies of whether they have generally requested Democratic or Republican ballots.
* Edward McClelland makes an interesting case about newspaper endorsements. After asking Alexi Giannoulias what spending he would have opposed in the past two years, a Tribune editorial board member cut him off short…
McCormick: “You don’t get to have these long discussions in Congress. You vote yes or no.”
The resulting Tribune endorsement of Mark Kirk claimed that Giannoulias couldn’t answer the question, and Kirk has since used that statement in his advertising. From McClelland…
Has McCormick never watched a Senate hearing? Congress spends most of its time having long discussions. It spends a few minutes voting on the bills that result from those discussions. Presumably, as a senator with expertise in banking, Giannoulias would have had input into TARP, allowing him to shape it into a bill more to his liking. Congress isn’t simply presented bills and asked for a thumbs up or thumbs down. It’s not the Chicago City Council. It writes bills, debates them, and offers amendments.
Giannoulias gave a legitimate answer, but he was in a hostile forum. The Tribune Editorial Board only endorsed its first Democrat in 2008 — a wise business decision, considering most of its subscribers voted for Obama. Everyone expected the Tribune to endorse Kirk. We didn’t expect the paper to write his campaign ads, too
* Meanwhile, after failing to come up with any real reason to vote for Bill Brady in their original endorsement, the Tribune has since published an editorial about education reform that was red meat for the base.
In the 10th Congressional District, the latest Democratic ad ties Republican Robert Dold to a group that opposes abortion rights. The ad ends with the tagline, “Too extreme for Illinois.”
After being somewhat cagey on the issue during the GOP primary, Dold has said he supports abortion rights, but doesn’t want tax dollars spent on it and wants minors to get the consent of a parent or judge before getting one. Dold was recommended by the Illinois Federation for Right to Life in the Republican primary, but the group pointed out that Dold doesn’t oppose abortion
New York Times / Chicago News Cooperative columnist James Warren also just wrote a piece about Dold…
A candidate can’t be expected to embrace everybody who supports him. But those backers can still leave a voter wondering where a candidate really stands.
Robert Dold, a Republican who’s running for Mr. Kirk’s north suburban congressional seat, publicly asserts he’s pro-abortion rights, but he keeps being endorsed by anti-abortion groups, the most recent being the Illinois Family Institute.
The key abortion question on its candidate questionnaire relates to proposed federal legislation to require that providers speak vividly to mothers. The proposed script for doctors includes the line, “There is substantial evidence that the process of being killed in an abortion will cause the unborn child pain, even though you receive a pain-reducing drug or drugs.”
Mr. Kirk said that he’s against the proposal. Mr. Dold, the self-proclaimed Kirk Redux moderate, said that he’s for it.
Dold, by the way, refused to eventually filled out Planned Parenthood’s questionnaire. The group, along with every other pro-choice organization, are none too happy with Dold.
And that brings us to the Tribune editorial entitled “Come on, Mr. Seals“…
You can get immune to candidates taking liberties with the truth as they rip each other during campaigns, but sometimes they mislead voters so badly you have to call them on it. Such is the case with Democrat Dan Seals.
Seals is running for the U.S. House in the north suburban 10th District. He and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are running ads that say Republican Robert Dold is “too extreme” on abortion. But they don’t cite Dold’s own words or views on abortion. That wouldn’t work, because Dold plainly says he supports abortion rights. They cite, instead, the views of the Illinois Federation for Right to Life.
“Bob Dold is hiding who he is. Dold’s supported by radical groups that would criminalize abortion in every case,” says an ominous voice in a Seals TV ad.
The editorial gets into the tricky business of what candidates say they are vs. what they really are. We often rely on established groups for guidance on this topic. For instance, if a candidate says he’s pro gun rights, but has no support from any gun organizations at all, is he or she really “pro-gun”? Well, yes, he or she could actually be pro-gun. Endorsements often go to incumbents when it’s a close call. But if a gun group specifically blasted a candidate as being “anti-gun” I’d take some notice.
Dold ran against what appeared to be a pro-life candidate in the GOP primary, but Illinois Federation for Right to Life still “recommended” Dold. That’s always been puzzling to me. From Tom Roeser…
Pro-lifer Arie Friedman lost to Bob Dold for 10th district Congress: at least Dold is somewhat pro-life—but I’m assuaged that pro-abort State Rep. Beth Coulson, worse than even NY-23’s Dede Scozzafava (the same lefty Beth who didn’t even endorse George W. Bush for reelection in 2004) has conceded to Dold.
The problem here is that Dold has indeed been “cagey” about what he actually supports. And until he has a voting record, we don’t know for sure who he really is and what he actually believes, even though his sisters insist that he’s pro-choice. Still, he’s worked overtime to publicly disassociate himself from some of the conservative groups that are supporting him, and that makes me more than a little suspicious about what’s really going on here. So it doesn’t look totally out of bounds for Seals to whack Dold on abortion since the pro-choice groups are so universally down on the guy. This isn’t nearly as clear-cut an issue as the Tribune tries to make it, except that Dold is their guy and they’re defending him. I get that, too. I just don’t follow their logic.
On the other hand, the Tribune claimed that state Rep. Mark Walker “has an anti-business voting record” even though Walker was endorsed by the Illinois State Chamber of Commerce. So go figure.
*** UPDATE *** If this newly posted AP story is any gauge, Sen. Hendon’s comments have “worked” to get the message out about Brady’s voting record…
Republican Bill Brady’s views on abortion, gay rights and other social issues are getting new attention, but the candidate for governor says his focus is on jobs and money.
State Sen. Rickey Hendon harshly attacked Brady’s record over the weekend, calling his fellow senator “idiotic.” And an abortion-rights group is running an ad pointing out Brady’s position.
Brady opposes abortion even in cases of rape and incest. He also opposes including gay people in the state law against job and housing discrimination.
Brady has criticized legislation requiring equal pay for equal work, and he opposes gun control.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* As I told subscribers this morning, Sen. Rickey Hendon’s comments over the weekend put Gov. Pat Quinn in a real trick bag. And even though Hendon kinda/sorta apologized for them on WLS Radio this morning, I’m not sure this is over yet.
“I’ve never served with such an idiotic, racist, sexist, homophobic person in my life,” Hendon said before introducing Gov. Quinn. “If you think that the minimum wage needs to be three dollars an hour, vote for Bill Brady. If you think that women have no rights whatsoever, except to have his children, vote for Bill Brady. If you think gay and lesbian people need to be locked up and shot in the head, vote for Bill Brady.”
Republican candidate for governor Bill Brady says Governor Quinn should apologize to the people of Illinois for what Hendon said about Brady.
But Quinn said he is not apologizing for comments he himself did not make. Brady suggested he and Hendon should say they’re sorry.
“It’s not about me — it’s about the people of Illinois,” Brady, a state senator and businessman from Bloomington, says. “They are disgusted with campaigns that go to that level. I think (Quinn) needs to apologize, and he should renounce Hendon from his campaign.”
With little more than a week before the Nov. 2 election, Quinn has wanted to put the focus on his vast differences with Brady’s record on social issues to an electorate that largely is concerned about the economy and jobs. Hendon provided the political cover to do so.
Quinn’s support among African-American voters is weak for a Democrat, a new Tribune/WGN poll shows. Among women statewide, Quinn is barely ahead. And among white suburban women, who tend to be moderate on issues such as abortion, Quinn and Brady are running even.
So, Hendon helped focus a “weak” black base, but likely turned off that all-important suburban white woman demographic.
* As mentioned above, Hendon kinda/sorta apologized today. From WLS Radio…
Now Hendon tells Cisco Cotto on WLS, “On your show right now I will apologize to the people of the state of Illinois if they were offended by what I said, but I will not apologize to Bill Brady for telling the truth about his voting record,” Hendon said.
When we ask conservative Republicans running for office this year where they stand on important social issues like gun control and abortion, we typically get a canned response that goes like this:
“Golly, when I knock on doors and talk to the voters, they just don’t care about that stuff. All they want to talk about is jobs.”
There is truth to that. The bad economy is foremost on the mind of most voters.
But that response is also a transparent dodge, a way to divert attention from what can be extreme, even dangerous, views.
In Illinois, nobody has played dodgeball harder than state Sen. Bill Brady, the GOP nominee for governor. And nobody has had better reason. Brady’s deeply conservative views on many social issues, if widely known, would appall the more moderate Republican and independent voters he needs to win.
* Roundup…
* Mark Brown: Brady cash flood make mockery of disclosure laws: These are among the many individuals and corporations fueling the Republican Governors Association, which reported dumping another $1.4 million into Illinois late last week, channeling the money through a shell campaign fund, RGA Illinois 2010 PAC, that was created for the purpose of helping Brady. The group’s latest donation pushes its total involvement in the Brady campaign past the $6.8 million mark, which I believe to be unprecedented in an Illinois state election.
* When Brady fought the neighbors: Dave Anderson, who retired as Normal city manager in 1998, said he’s never walked out of a meeting with the Bradys. “And I can’t say that about every subdivider in town,” he said. That willingness to negotiate goes hand-in-hand with what observers say is a concern to protect the family’s reputation. Among the family’s many charitable efforts was building a home in Philo last year for ABC’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,” just months before Brady won the Republican gubernatorial primary.
* Independent gubernatorial candidate Scott Lee Cohen has finally filed his pre-election report (almost a week late). It shows he loaned his campaign another $2.1 million. By my figuring, Cohen has loaned or given his campaign over $5.8 million since the summer of 2009.
* The Question: How well do you think Cohen will do next Tuesday? And explain, please.
* Two things to keep in mind about the Tribune’s new US Senate poll. From the article…
The poll of 700 registered voters, conducted last Monday through Friday…
I’m going on the hope that they asked those registered voters if they were likely to vote. If not, this is worthless. Also, a five-day window? Some of these numbers are now a week old. That’s ancient in campaign terms.
Kirk’s support among independents increased from 38 percent to 50 percent, the poll showed, while Giannoulias’ backing among unaligned voters was relatively stagnant at about 28 percent. During that time period, the number of undecided independent voters dropped from 22 percent to 8 percent — with Kirk picking up virtually all of those deciding on a candidate. […]
The poll showed potential avenues where Giannoulias can grow support — if he can get Democrats motivated. Concerns of a post-2008 letdown have prompted Obama to make two visits back home to Chicago to help Giannoulias and other Democrats, with a third trip planned for Saturday.
Only two-thirds of voters in predominantly Democratic Chicago back Giannoulias’ candidacy, a gain of less than 5 percentage points from late September, while 15 percent of city voters said they were undecided. At the same time, in increasingly Democratic suburban Cook County, Giannoulias carries a slim 49 percent to 43 percent advantage over Kirk.
Kirk holds a strong 15 percentage-point advantage among men, and Giannoulias has an 8 percentage-point edge among women across the state. But the two men each have the support of 43 percent of a key voting demographic: white suburban women who tend to be social moderates.
* Meanwhile, the DSCC just leaked its latest topline…
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote — Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat, Mark Kirk, a Republican, Michael Labno, a Libertarian, or LeAlan Jones, of the Green Party?
Total Giannoulias 38%
Total Kirk 36%
Total Labno 4%
Total Jones 7%
Undecided 16%
Another five-day polling window, but at least it’s more recent (Wednesday through yesterday). 600 likely voters. MoE +/-4.0 percent.
* Related…
* Charlie Cook: Dems’ House Losses Likely Enormous, but Senate Hard to Read
* This appears to be a new TV ad for JUSTPAC, which is running the “Vote No” campaign against Illinois Supreme Court Chief Justice Tom Kilbride. Rate it…
* We’ve all praised Simon Edelman for almost a year for his Pat Quinn campaign videos. Many of you have said that Simon ought to be doing Quinn’s campaign ads as well. The Quinn campaign is now running some regional Downstate ads, and guess who did them? You guessed it. Southern Illinois…
My girlfriend just received a call from a woman who said she was a rape victim. The call said that Brady was against all forms of pro choice even in the case if rape and incest. Any truth to this?
That robocall was probably from Personal PAC and, yes, it’s true.
* The Illinois Chamber has posted a few Internet promo videos for its endorsed candidates. Here is the one for Bill Brady…
The promo for Mark Kirk is here, and the Bobby Schilling promo is here.
The ad is running on black radio, but a wider buy is planned, the campaign says. Script…
It’s election time, and everyone wants our vote. But not every Democrat deserves it.
Take Joe Berrios, candidate for Assessor.
Twenty years ago, Berrios worked against Mayor Harold Washington. Berrios supported Ed Vrdolyak and his cronies — the folks who waged council wars against Harold, and nearly tore our city apart.
Today, Berrios is still with Vrdolyak — helping him fulfill his community service sentence for mail fraud.
And Berrios is a paid lobbyist for liquor and gambling interests – passing a law that legalizes video gaming – the “crack cocaine” of gambling.
Don’t let Berrios and the Democratic Machine take us for granted.
There’s a better choice for Assessor – independent candidate Forrest Claypool.
Claypool was picked by Barack Obama to lead his Senate transition team. Claypool’s been endorsed by Alderman Ed Smith and Congressman Jesse Jackson Junior.
He’ll stand up for us – not the machine.
On November Second, vote Forrest Claypool for Assessor.
I joked to a Democrat last week that I seriously doubted state Rep. Kevin McCarthy (D-Orland Park) ever would vote for a legislative pay raise again after getting whacked so hard by the Republicans for his pay hike votes this fall. McCarthy has been brutalized for those votes, and he’s had to work harder on this campaign that he has in more than a decade.
“I don’t think Kevin will vote for anything,” came the reply.
He could very well be right, and not just about McCarthy. There are a whole lot of extremely frightened Democratic legislative incumbents out there right now, including those who don’t have serious opponents. And even if individuals survive November 2, they surely will watch in horror as many of their colleagues go down in flames.
One would hope that this brutal campaign season would be a wake-up call for all state legislators and that election day will be a Jeffersonian “refresh” of the “tree of liberty,” albeit with symbolic blood.
But legislators are human beings, and humans often learn the absolute wrong lessons. And the lesson this year could easily be: No matter how you vote, you’re still gonna get zapped harder than you could have ever imagined, so don’t take any chances at all.
For instance, if you vote against every legislative pay raise but then vote for appropriations bills that pay for those raises, you’re slammed for raising your own and (for good measure) Rod Blagojevich’s pay. McCarthy actually voted to raise his pay, but several others who are being pummeled on this issue did not.
Now there are always these sorts of worries right before an election when the negativity is at its peak.
“We talked about this two years ago,” one Republican pal said last week.
“Yeah,” I responded, “and look what’s happened since. A whole lot of bad.”
I’ve talked to some who firmly believe that the Republican game-playing in House Speaker Michael Madigan’s own Chicago district could mean big trouble after the election as Madigan seeks revenge for the humiliation, whether he holds on to his majority or not. The Republicans have publicly taunted Madigan in the media for allegedly recruiting his own candidate, and Madigan is spending more money on his own campaign now than he has in memory.
The fears about a Madigan retaliation could very well be justified. Just look at how House Republican Leader Tom Cross responded after Madigan started funding his own unknown and no-chance Democratic opponent late in the 2008 campaign. Except for the capital construction bill (which everybody desperately wanted) we’ve had more House gridlock since that election than ever before, and that’s really saying something. Republican state Rep. Bill Black didn’t get tossed out of GOP leadership last summer because he was one of three Republicans to vote for the Democrats’ pension bond bill. He got the boot because he consorted with a mortal enemy.
The situation is better in the Senate, but it ain’t all roses. The Senate president’s decision, since abandoned, to go after Republican incumbent John Millner widely was seen as a harbinger of doom. Millner was one of the only Republicans who was regularly willing to work with the other side of the aisle. The Democrats will almost surely wind up with a far smaller majority after November 2. They’ll need to work with the Republicans to get anything done no matter who wins the governor’s race. But why would any Republicans trust them after what they did to Millner?
Then there’s the legislative district remap. If Gov. Pat Quinn loses to Bill Brady and/or Madigan loses his majority, nobody will know who will control the remap process until late next summer or early fall unless they can cut a deal - which hasn’t happened in a very long time. With the map in doubt, there’s even less incentive to work together.
All of this couldn’t come at a worse possible time, of course. The state’s budget deficit is practically insurmountable. Unemployment remains stubbornly and scarily high. People are angry and frightened because nobody can point to any light at the end of this tunnel.
Somehow, some way, the people who lead this state are going to have to find it in them to pull everyone together and address these issues after this bloody fall campaign. But right now all of them are doing everything possible to undermine any sort of resolution.
Still, David Ramos, Executive Director of Cook County’s Homeland Security and Emergency Management Office was accompanied by a North Side security firm whose owners — identified as former FBI agents — specialize in countersurveillance, according to a visitor’s log for the county building.
About 9:30 p.m., Cook County Sheriff’s deputies, in charge of security at the building, spotted several people “removing items” from Stroger’s 5th floor offices, said Steve Patterson, a spokesman for Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart.
Michaels was replaced by a four-member office called the Executive Council, which will be charged with stabilizing the company while it struggles to exit bankruptcy court after almost two years of fractious, stop-and-start negotiations with creditors.
The Chronicle of Philanthropy survey includes the nation’s 400 biggest charities, based on finances. It includes 15 from Illinois.
The decline in Illinois mirrored the 11 percent decrease nationwide.
Some organizations managed to buck the trend. Most notable was the Evanston-based Rotary Foundation of Rotary International, No. 75 on the list. Its private donations ballooned by 43.4 percent, to $223.8 million, thanks to Microsoft founder Bill Gates.
Sneed hears Ferguson has devised a plan he thinks will save the city approximately $275 million, which includes budget options guaranteed to sound alarms all over the city!
The report, which contains 24 options “to decrease city spending or increase city revenue,” calls for reducing the size of the Chicago Fire Department by 595 firefighters, cutting off free water and sewer service for nonprofit organizations like the profoundly respected Misericordia, and moving sworn police officers to nonadministrative jobs.
* Aldermen Look into Merging Office of Compliance with Inspector General’s Office
* Record surge at local and national graduate schools
Health sciences saw the biggest growth — nearly 15 percent — nationally in applications from 2008 to 2009, according to a report Bell wrote for the Council of Graduate Schools. Interest in nursing primarily fueled the increase, he said.
Overall, the group’s study found that new graduate-student enrollment grew 5.5 percent between 2008 and 2009, compared with 4.5 percent the prior year. Between 1999 and 2009, the average annual first-time graduate enrollment growth was nearly 5 percent for U.S. students and 3.3 percent for international students.
Defense attorneys had requested the delay. Their team has been cut by several attorneys so the remaining handful have to catch up on what other lawyers did during the first trial. And Sheldon Sorosky told judge Zagel that as a defense attorney, he hasn’t been able to focus one hundred percent on the governor’s case because he’s got lots of clients who were put on the back burner while Blagojevich was on trial.
According to CHA’s FY 2010 annual report to HUD, when Cabrini’s transformation is complete, it will boast 5,141 privately developed, mixed-income units — 1,200 as public housing, 932 for working-class families, and 3,009 for sale or rental at market rates.
Much of the credit for the surplus is attributed to the village’s privatization program, keeping full-time staff levels to 58, below that of nearby municipalities.
The report also stresses cost containment. Garbage collection rates are 12.9 percent lower than 1996 rates when adjusted for inflation. Water and sewer rates are 15.2 percent lower than 1992 rates when adjusted for inflation.
Aurea Picasso will be transported this morning to the Criminal Courts Building in Chicago for a bond hearing on allegations she stole $193,000 from various township funds.
The Aurora woman is charged with theft from a government entity, Cook County state’s attorney’s office spokeswoman Sally Daly said. A conviction carries a prison sentence of between six and 30 years.
