Feds respond to Blagojevich filing
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AP…
Prosecutors have responded to a new argument that former Gov. Rod Blagojevich submitted this week to a federal court considering his appeal. […]
Blagojevich’s lawyers say an April ruling by the high court found that soliciting contributions is corruption only when a politician makes explicit promises to take official action for a donation.
But prosecutors say that’s a misreading of the ruling in McCutcheon v. the Federal Election Commission. They say the high court didn’t conclude an exchange had to be explicitly stated to constitute corruption.
* The full response…
Pursuant to Fed. R. App. 28(j) and Seventh Circuit Rule 28(e), the government hereby responds to defendant-appellant Rod Blagojevich’s July 16, 2014 letter citing McCutcheon v. Federal Election Com’n, — U.S. —, 134 S.Ct. 1434 (2014) in support of his challenge to the jury instructions related to the quid pro quo element of criminal extortion in the context of campaign contributions. See Br. 51, quoting Tr. 5544.
As argued in the government’s brief at 55-57, the challenged instructions stated the applicable law consistently with this Court’s 2012 pattern instructions, and with the instruction approved in United States v. Giles, 246 F.3d 966, 971-73 (7th Cir. 1992). Where campaign contributions were involved, the instructions (like the instructions related to bribery and fraud) correctly conditioned a finding of guilt on proof that defendant attempted to exchange a specific requested exercise of his official power (including the Senate appointment, signing of the Racetrack bill, and implementation of the Medicaid reimbursement increase) for money or property in the form of such contributions.
In McCutcheon, the Supreme Court reaffirmed that campaign financing Constitutionally may be regulated to combat quid pro quo corruption or its appearance, but determined that the regulations challenged in that case— provisions of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA) related to aggregate contribution limits—were not appropriately crafted to meet that permissible objective, or to avoid unnecessary abridgement of associational freedoms protected by the First Amendment. 134 S.Ct. at 1441-42, 1456, 1462. Nothing in the decision suggests that an exchange of contributions for specific official acts is quid pro quo corruption only if the arrangement is stated “explicitly” or expressly. Accordingly, the decision provides no support for Blagojevich’s argument on appeal.
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* Remember the America’s PAC radio ad we talked about the other day?…
Americas PAC has just released a new radio ad running across Illinois highlighting the wage gap between men and women working on Dick Durbin’s Senate staff […]
Analysis of Senate Staff payroll by the Washington Free Beacon found that in 2012 Durbin “paid men $13,063 more, a difference of 23 percent.” [Link http://freebeacon.com/politics/senate-dems-betray-lilly/]
“The average female on his staff was paid about 77 cents for every dollar earned by his male staffers,” Donelson said.
* Well, US Sen. Dick Durbin’s has contacted at least one radio station about it…
Quincy’s WTAD-AM, which is owned by STARadio along with Quincy Journal, has been running the ad. STARadio was contacted by someone representing Sen. Durbin.
“WTAD received an email and phone call from a firm representing Senator Durbin earlier in the week,” said STARadio VP/GM Mike Moyers. “A letter attached to the email implied that the commercial being aired by Americas PAC contained false information and that WTAD would be liable should we continue to air it. Sources provided by Americas PAC were checked and proved to be in line, so the commercial in question is still on the air.”
* America’s PAC response…
“If anything, we’ll increase the buy,” Donelson said. “And even if the stations knuckle under to the threats of Senator Durbin and his lawyers, Americas PAC will continue to run ads highlighting Senator Durbin’s and the President’s wage gap problems and hypocrisy. We’re scripting an even harder hitting ad already.”
* Here’s the ad, in case you’ve forgotten…
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* I have a feeling this is gonna become so commonplace that by late October it might not even be newsworthy. Rick Pearson…
Republican Bruce Rauner plowed $1.5 million more into his campaign for governor against Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, newly filed reports with the State Board of Elections showed today.
The latest donation brings to nearly $8.1 million the amount of personal funds Rauner has given to his first-time bid for public office.
*** UPDATE *** From the Quinnsters…
Bruce Rauner Donates Another $1.5 Million to Himself
Rauner Continues Hiding Complete Income Tax Forms from Previous Three Years That Would Disclose Sources of Income to Public
CHICAGO – One day after proposing a tax plan that would decimate public education and create a whole new tax on services across Illinois, Bruce Rauner today contributed another $1.5 million to himself, bringing the grand total of Rauner’s mostly self-funded campaign to $8.1 billion.
However, despite calls from the media and Governor Pat Quinn to release his complete income tax return documents like other candidates have done, Rauner is continuing to hide the information that would shed light on his sources of income from the public. Governor Quinn, nominee for Lt. Governor Paul Vallas and even presidential candidate Mitt Romney released their complete income tax records.
Below is a statement from Quinn for Illinois Communications Director Brooke Anderson:
“Until Bruce Rauner releases his complete income tax returns, the public is left in the dark about how he made the millions of dollars he is now using to bankroll false television ads against Governor Quinn.
“The people of Illinois deserve to know the facts about their candidates’ finances.
“What exactly is Rauner hiding?”
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Arghh!!! The earworm!!! It burns!!!
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* “Thanks” to our commenter “soccermom,” I now have a near terminal case of George Michael-induced earworm.
I was gonna save this for later, but it must be done now in case some of the rest of y’all are suffering from the same condition.
* The late, great Johnny Winter. Turn it up so loud your co-workers complain…
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Personal PAC wants more answers
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
Today, Personal PAC called on the Republican and Democratic candidates for Governor to publicly state their positions on the June 30, 2014 Hobby Lobby U.S. Supreme Court decision. In addition, Personal PAC wants to know if these candidates support legislative measures to address the horrible situation in Illinois that now allows for-profit employers to invoke a privately held religious objection in refusing to cover prescription birth control as part of their employees health insurance compensation package.
“In light of yesterday’s defeat in the U.S. Senate of the “Not Your Boss’ Business” Act to correct the disastrous Hobby Lobby decision, it is more critical than ever that candidates for the two highest offices in Illinois tell voters where they stand on addressing this issue at the state level,” said Terry Cosgrove, President and CEO of Personal PAC.
Personal PAC has sent each Democratic and Republican candidate for Governor and Lt. Governor the following four questions with a deadline of 5 p.m., Thursday, July 24th, 2014 for a response from each candidate. Cosgrove continued, “With upward of 96% of Illinois women using birth control at some point in their lives, 25% of whom for medical reasons such as controlling fibroid tumors, voters have a right to know who is standing with women in keeping their health care choices private and out of reach of their bosses.”
It is time to save birth control in Illinois and the referendum question on the November 4th ballot dealing with this issue will guide elected officials in adopting laws to put the decisions about birth control back in the hands of women. “It is hard to believe we even have to discuss women being allowed to have access to birth control in 2014” concluded Cosgrove.
* The four questions, with a couple of non-content edits to make it easier for us to read here…
1. Do you OPPOSE the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in the Hobby Lobby case?
2. Will you SIGN legislation containing these three provisions in order to reverse the impact of Hobby Lobby in Illinois and protect access to birth control in our state?
As a result of the serious threat to women’s health from the Hobby Lobby decision, legislation will be introduced in the Illinois General Assembly seeking to (1) require disclosure to current employees and job applicants to ensure that women know whether a particular employer refuses to provide full preventive health care coverage, including birth control; (2) ensure that employers cannot retaliate against employees who make reproductive health care decisions that conflict with the employer’s beliefs; and (3) ensure that low-income women without adequate health insurance coverage have access to affordable birth control through safety net providers.
3. Will you vote “YES” on this ballot question?
The following referendum will appear on the November 2014 general election ballot: “Shall any health insurance plan in Illinois that provides prescription drug coverage be required to include prescription birth control as part of that coverage?” The purpose of this referendum is to demonstrate strong public support for full access to birth control and for the three provisions described above.
4. Will you publicly state your SUPPORT for the birth control ballot measure?
Obviously, Gov. Quinn will be answering to Personal PAC’s liking. I’ll let you know if Rauner comes up with a response.
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Rate Rauner’s new social media ads
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* “This is slightly embarrassing” wrote a friend of mine this morning…
I had an ear worm of this song, and decided I might be able to cure it by listening to the whole thing.
So I went to YouTube — and got a Rauner ad?
Weird….
The song was “I’m Never Gonna Dance Again” by George Michael. Don’t click here. Seriously, I mean it. Don’t. I accidentally let the thing play after the ad and now I’ve got the same horrific ear worm.
Uuuuuggghhhhh!!!
* Rauner’s campaign explains via e-mail…
Bruce Rauner’s campaign launched a new digital campaign highlighting some of Pat Quinn’s biggest broken promises as governor.
The effort features targeted online advertising and encourages folks to add to the conversation on social media by using the hashtag #PatQuinnMoments.
“With massive tax hikes and a terrible economy, Illinoisans can’t celebrate Pat Quinn’s time as governor,” Rauner spokesman Mike Schrimpf said. “Pat Quinn is simply a champion tax raiser and made Illinois the Midwest’s leader in lost jobs.”
* “Pat Quinn’s Great Moments: Taxes”…
Script…
Great moments in Pat Quinn history
He promised not to permanently raise taxes
Now Quinn is trying to keep his 67% tax hike forever
Pat Quinn champion tax raiser
* “Pat Quinn’s Greatest Moments: Jobs”…
Script…
Great moments in Pat Quinn history
He promised to make jobs his number one priority
Under Quinn Illinois led the Midwest in job losses and unemployment
Pat Quinn #1 in unemployment
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Spread it out, lower the rates
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bruce Rauner’s “plan” to lower income taxes and kinda sorta replace a few dollars of them with a new sales tax on services is part of a pattern among Republican governors. Here’s a New York Times story from January of 2013…
Republican governors are moving aggressively to cut personal and corporate income taxes, including proposals that would increase reliance on state sales taxes, setting up ambitious experiments in tax reform that could shape what is possible on a national level. […]
In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal is pushing to repeal the state’s personal and corporate income taxes and make up the lost revenue through higher sales taxes. Gov. Dave Heineman of Nebraska iscalling for much the same thing in his state. Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas wants to keep in place what was supposed to be a temporary increase in the state sales tax to help pay for his plan to lower and eventually end his state’s income tax.
Along the way these governors are taking small first steps into a debate over what kind of tax system most encourages growth in a 21st-century economy. In particular they are focusing attention on the idea, long championed by conservatives but accepted up to a point by economists of all stripes, that the economy would be better served by focusing taxation on consumption rather than on income.
Taxing consumption has the potential to lift economic growth by encouraging more savings and investment. But the shift could also increase inequality by reducing taxes predominantly for the wealthy, who spend a smaller share of their income than middle- and lower-income people.
“The question of whether we should tax income or whether we should tax spending is really a proxy for a different debate,” said Joseph Henchman, vice president for state projects at the Tax Foundation, a conservative-leaning research organization. “Everyone agrees we’ll get more growth with consumption taxes. It’s just that some people prioritize fairness.”
If you “encourage more savings and investment” through taxation, then how does that inject any demand into the economy? Demand drives growth. By their own logic, they’d drive consumption down, which would decrease demand, which would decrease growth.
* More…
For Mr. Jindal and other Republican governors who are considering a presidential run in 2016, there are obvious political benefits to having a robust income tax-cutting record to present to conservative primary voters.
But Democrats say the approach would lead to cutbacks in education, health care and other vital services while shifting relatively more of the tax burden to those who can least afford it.
“These aren’t pro-growth policies — they’re shell games that reward the wealthiest Americans at the expense of everyone else,” said Danny Kanner, a spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association.
Cutting a billionaire’s income taxes while raising sales/service taxes on the broader economy would indeed help that billionaire.
* Even so, I generally favor broader taxation at lower rates. Rauner’s service tax idea is just a first step. It could be broadened much further to take advantage of that sector’s historic annual growth. But that ought to be accompanied by a lower sales tax rate. It doesn’t have to be revenue neutral, but people should be given a break overall.
* And the same goes for income taxes. According to the Civic Federation…
The individual income tax base is expected to grow at a rate of only 1.9% compared to the retirement income growth rate of 6.5%. […]
The Illinois Comptroller estimates that this exemption of federally taxable retirement income reduced the State’s individual income tax revenues by $2.0 billion in FY2012.
So, what does Illinois do? It taxes slow-growth individual income at 5 percent and doesn’t tax high-growth retirement income at all. That doesn’t make sense.
Spread it out, lower the rate.
Easier said than done, of course. Retirees by definition have a lot of extra time on their hands for things like screaming at their legislators.
* But, if anyone has any real guts, they might wanna challenge the constitutionality of this retirement income exemption. From the Constitution…
A tax on or measured by income shall be at a non-graduated rate. At any one time there may be no more than one such tax imposed by the State for State purposes on individuals and one such tax so imposed on corporations.
We’re only supposed to have one personal, non-graduated income tax rate for individuals in Illinois, but we actually have two, and one of them is decidedly graduated (at the rate of zero).
/rant
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Keeping the story alive
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* So far, at least, the Republicans on the Legislative Audit Commission have found nothing like a “smoking gun” to claim any illegal political actions by top-level Quinn administration officials on the governor’s anti-violence initiative. They have a couple thousand government e-mails, but nothing that shows anything spectacular.
So, they shifted gears a bit yesterday…
After Thursday’s vote, Barickman shifted focus to a cache of 2,300 NRI-related emails Quinn’s office turned over to the audit commission last Friday in response to a June 25 request.
Specifically, Barickman and Mautino asked for emails, letters and any memoranda related to the rollout and implementation of NRI between March 2010 through September 2012. The request targeted former Quinn chief of staff Jack Lavin, former Central Management Services director Malcolm Weems, former Quinn deputy chief of staff Toni Irving, former Quinn senior advisor Billy Ocasio, former Commerce and Economic Opportunity Director Warren Ribley, former DCEO chief operating officer Andrew Ross, and Reshma Desai, the former director of grant programs for the now-defunct Illinois Violence Prevention Authority.
Barickman voiced concern “about the potential that the governor’s office didn’t fully comply with our request for emails,” noting Quinn’s office asserted “a blanket privilege claim” to withhold some documents, though the senator said he was uncertain about which documents may have been protected by the governor’s office.
Barickman also questioned whether the governor’s office may have “significantly limited their scope” in searching for emails “in a way that doesn’t comply with our original request.”
Notice that he said the “potential” that the governor’s office didn’t fully comply. The administration’s response…
“Those not provided on the disc were privileged attorney-client communications between state employees and state attorneys either seeking or providing legal advice,” Quinn spokeswoman Katie Hickey said.
The Republicans did mention Wednesday that it appeared former Quinn chief of staff Jack Lavin had forwarded some state e-mails regarding the initiative to a private e-mail account. But, again, it’s just wispy smoke.
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Time’s running out fast
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The deadline for the Illinois State Board of Elections to certify the November ballot is August 22nd - 36 days from now. That’s 21 work days, counting today and the 22nd.
So, that’s why yesterday’s Illinois Supreme Court decision to not take direct appeal of Bruce Rauner’s term limits ballot initiative is so important.
Cook County Circuit Court Judge Mary Mikva issued her initial ruling kicking Rauner’s initiative off the ballot on June 27th - three weeks ago today. The Supremes took their sweet time to consider direct appeal.
Rauner’s group inexplicably didn’t file any appellate motions before today, so it now has less than 21 working days to get this thing motioned, heard and decided at the appellate level and then motioned, heard and decided by the Supremes. They’re gonna need to get that ballot certification date postponed if they have any hope here.
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Raoul utterly perplexed at story
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sneed…
In the wake of Cook County Board Chairman Toni Preckwinkle’s hasty exit as a possible mayoral contender, Sneed is told there is a move to fill the void with two male contenders in the black community: State Sen. Kwame Raoul and former Illinois Senate President Emil Jones Jr.
Some folks might actually be pushing this, but it’s ludicrous on its face. For instance, buried way down…
On Wednesday, the Sun-Times reported that Raoul had taken himself out of the running.
I called Kwame today and he said he’d been asked by a Sun-Times reporter if he was interested and he categorically declared he was not. And he was not amused with today’s story. He didn’t put himself out there and he’s not interested in running, so he couldn’t have “taken himself out of the running.”
So, forget that story.
* And Emil? Really?…
Sneed also hears a movement to draft former Illinois political powerhouse Emil Jones Jr., into the high-stakes race against Mayor Rahm Emanuel is in the works.
“Our intent is to tamp down support for CTU President Karen Lewis for mayor because there is no way she can bring the black community together on the schools issue to develop a black consensus,” said a major supporter of Jones supporter who asked not to be identified — but is well-known in the political structure of the African-American community.
“We need someone who can win,” the source said. “Emil was prominently mentioned in the mayoral election. He just needs to be cajoled and convinced.”
The man is 78 years old. He’s an old school politico. His time is long past.
If they do run him it will solely be to split the black vote against Lewis. And that’s what this is all about. Reelecting Rahm.
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Today’s number: 13,000
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Uh-oh…
Thousands of Chicago drivers have been tagged with $100 red light fines they did not deserve, targeted by robotic cameras during a series of sudden spikes in tickets that city officials say they cannot explain, a Tribune investigation has found.
The Tribune’s analysis of more than 4 million tickets issued since 2007 and a deeper probe of individual cases revealed clear evidence that the deviations in Chicago’s network of 380 cameras were caused by faulty equipment, human tinkering or both.
More…
A 10-month Tribune investigation documented more than 13,000 questionable tickets at 12 intersections that experienced the most striking spikes; similar patterns emerged at dozens of other intersections responsible for tens of thousands more tickets. Among the key findings:
Cameras that for years generated just a few tickets daily suddenly caught dozens of drivers a day. One camera near the United Center rocketed from generating one ticket per day to 56 per day for a two-week period last summer before mysteriously dropping back to normal.
Tickets for so-called rolling right turns on red shot up during some of the most dramatic spikes, suggesting an unannounced change in enforcement. One North Side camera generated only a dozen tickets for rolling rights out of 100 total tickets in the entire second half of 2011. Then, over a 12-day spike, it spewed 563 tickets — 560 of them for rolling rights.
Many of the spikes were marked by periods immediately before or after when no tickets were issued — downtimes suggesting human intervention that should have been documented. City officials said they cannot explain the absence of such records.
Go read the whole thing. Chicagoans tend to hate those red-light cams. If what the Tribune alleges is true, you can add one more horrible problem that Rahm Emanuel’s reelection campaign will have to deal with.
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Spinning and counter-spinning
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Most entertaining spin of the day on Bruce Rauner’s new tax proposal…
Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign quickly blasted the plan as one that would send the state into a deeper hole than the estimated $6 billion deficit that will face the next governor. The camp also criticized the multi-millionaire candidate for proposing a sales tax expansion, saying it would hurt working families and small business.
“Only someone with nine homes would propose taxing trailer parks,” said Quinn spokeswoman Brooke Anderson.
Heh.
Rauner’s plan does, indeed, mention “trailer parks.” However, they screwed up the language…
Trailer parks - overnight
Those aren’t “trailer parks,” they’re RV campgrounds. So, Brooke’s attack is half valid, and the Rauner campaign brought it on themselves.
* Another bit of spin, this time by Rauner…
Rauner also said that new TV ads that attack him for wanting to tax Social Security and other retirement income are false. The ads were launched Wednesday by Illinois Freedom PAC, an outside group funded by a coalition of unions that opposed Rauner in the Republican primary.
“Gov. Quinn is creating another false spin. I have never, ever said I want to tax Social Security, that’s baloney,” Rauner said. “And as you can see from our plan here, we have no plan to tax retirement income. They are trying to create a false argument.”
* What the TV ad actually says…
Now Rauner says he’s open to taxing our Social Security and retirement income…making it harder for Illinois families to get by.
* From a March 14, 2014 Sun-Times story entitled “Rauner, Rutherford won’t rule out taxing retirement income”…
Earlier this month, the Civic Federation recommended that Gov. Pat Quinn and state lawmakers consider taxing retirement income to help lift the state out of its multibillion-dollar budgetary shortfall, an idea that drew immediate opposition from AARP of Illinois.
Rauner did not categorically rule out taxing retirement income when asked Thursday night.
“I don’t have position on that yet. What I would recommend we do is look at our entire tax code in Illinois, look at every tax and every tax base and every rate and then compare ourselves to other well-run states that we compete with both in the Midwest and around the country,” Rauner said.
“Look at what we tax, what we don’t tax and at what rates. The critical thing is we have got to ease the overall tax burden, the overall spending burden and make our tax code as pro-growth as possible because the real answer to our financial problems is growth,” Rauner said.
Probably close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades. Plus, it’s the Illinois Freedom PAC, not Quinn making the charge.
* And, finally, FactCheck.org got a bit ahead of the facts…
Republican Bruce Rauner falsely claims in a TV ad that Illinois leads the Midwest in “job losses” under Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn. In fact, Illinois has experienced job growth — albeit small — since Quinn took office.
They continue…
Rauner’s latest TV ad, titled “Remember This,” shows Quinn promising to create 400,000 jobs and then cuts to a narrator who says: “Under Quinn Illinois leads the Midwest in job losses.” Those same words are superimposed over an image of an empty warehouse that emphasizes the “job losses.” But the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which the ad cites as the source of this claim, shows Illinois had 5,803,600 total non-farm jobs in January 2009, when Quinn took office, and had 5,804,000 in May 2014, which is the most recent month with available employment data. That represents a net gain of 400 total jobs under Quinn as governor.
Certainly, 400 jobs in a state as large as Illinois (population 12.9 million) is not a lot. In fact, we calculate that the state had the lowest job growth during that period of the 12 states considered to be part of the Midwest by the BLS. Still, Illinois saw total job gains, not losses, and the state’s unemployment rate is down from 8 percent to 7.5 percent under Quinn.
How did the Rauner campaign arrive at “job losses”? By cherry-picking BLS data.
According to a document provided by the Rauner campaign to support the ad, the “job losses” claim refers to a drop in private sector jobs only in 2014 — a five-month period — not Quinn’s entire time in office. The campaign document says that Illinois has lost more than 26,000 private sector jobs so far in this calendar year. That’s accurate. Illinois had 4,996,800 private sector jobs in December 2013 and that number has shrunk to 4,970,500 in May 2014, a loss of 26,300 jobs. The Rauner campaign also is correct in saying that this is the largest job loss of any state in the Midwest during this period.
Meh. If Illinois does indeed lead the Midwest in job losses this year, then that’s a valid hit by Rauner. Period.
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This just in…
Thursday, Jul 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* 5:43 pm - The Illinois Supreme Court has denied a motion to take up a direct appeal of Cook County Circuit Court Judge Mary Mikva’s ruling that kicked Bruce Rauner’s term limits constitutional amendment off the ballot. The order is brief and to the point…
Motion by intervenor-appellant for direct appeal to this Court pursuant to Supreme Court Rule 302(b). Motion Denied
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Today’s numbers: 193 and 7.1
Thursday, Jul 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Harold Meyerson…
Median compensation in manufacturing is a third again higher than it is in the United States — yet, counter to the wage-cutting conventional wisdom in American boardrooms and economics classrooms, Germany is No. 1 in trade and the United States is No. 193.
* From IDES…
The Illinois unemployment rate fell in June for the fourth consecutive month to reach 7.1 percent while employers created 6,000 jobs, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security. The data is seasonally adjusted.
The combined April-June reduction of 1.3 points in the unemployment rate is the largest three-month drop since this data series began in 1976. The last time the rate was lower was October 2008 when it was 7.0 percent.
“Today’s numbers remind us that as our economy improves, more still needs to be done.” IDES Director Jay Rowell said. “We need to continue to create job-training opportunities for the unemployed and underemployed so they can share in our growing economy.”
The significant drop in the unemployment rate so far this year reflects Illinois’ historical role of following the nation into and out of economic cycles. This pattern generally is expected to continue until global demand lifts Illinois’ manufacturing sector, which in turn would help housing and the construction industry.
The unemployment rate also is in line with other economic indicators. First time jobless claims have been trending lower for the past four years and in June were 6 percent lower than one year ago. First time claims in June also were at the lowest monthly level since 2007. Numbers from the independent Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine Survey show Illinois employers in June advertised for more than 212,800 jobs (203,500 seasonally adjusted) and 86 percent sought full-time work.
Employers added +250,900 private sector jobs since job creation returned to Illinois. Leading sectors are Professional and Business Services (+107,900, +13.8 percent); Education and Health Services (+59,100, +7.2 percent); Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+44,700, +4.0 percent); and Leisure and Hospitality (+34,600, +6.8 percent). Government continues to lead job loss (-22,100, -2.6 percent.)
In June, the number of unemployed individuals fell -30,600 (-6.2 percent) to 461,700. Total unemployed has fallen -291,800 (-38.7 percent) since the rate peaked at 11.4 percent.
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Question of the day
Thursday, Jul 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Aside from the fact that Bruce Rauner’s new plan to tax services won’t come anywhere close to replacing the income tax hike revenues and won’t allow him to justify freezing property taxes, do you generally support or oppose a tax on services? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey solutions
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Rauner plan react
Thursday, Jul 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Democratic Governors Association…
Today, Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner again attempted to claim the mantle of job creator. The truth is Rauner has made his fortune by perfecting the art of massive layoffs and shipping jobs overseas.
Incredibly, in today’s pamphlet, he directly cites India and the Philippines as places where he wants to make Illinois more competitive. This is rich, since these are places where he himself has established companies to snatch American jobs, drives down wages and maximize profits.
Billionaire Bruce says he’s going to “travel the world” to work on jobs. Maybe while he’s over in China, the Philippines and India, he can say hello to some of his workers.
* From the IMA…
The Illinois Manufacturers’ Association (IMA) announced its endorsement of Bruce Rauner for governor at a press conference today with the candidate at Quality Float Works, Inc., a family-owned and operated manufacturing company. The IMA undertook a rigorous endorsement process that included candidate questionnaires, a survey of member companies, and individual interviews with both candidates. The IMA became the first statewide business organization to endorse in the race for governor and has donated $250,000 to Rauner’s gubernatorial campaign.
In their endorsement, the IMA pointed to the continued economic struggles the state is facing along with the hostile business climate towards job creators. Illinois manufacturers employ 570,000 workers directly and contribute the single largest share of the gross state product. Yet, the state’s poor economic conditions have resulted in nearly 130,000 manufacturing jobs disappearing - more than 47,000 of these jobs have been lost in the last few years.
“Illinois is closing one day at a time with a quiet exodus of businesses leaving the state. We cannot afford a hostile business climate coupled with a tax and spend policy that crushes investment across our state. While you cannot blame the current administration for all the problems facing Illinois, it’s time that Illinois has a governor who is fully committed to creating a pro-growth economic strategy. We are proud to support Bruce Rauner who is the right kind of leader to turn our economic ship around and put people back to work,” said Greg Baise, president and CEO of the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association.
The IMA also applauded Rauner’s ambitious plan to grow jobs in Illinois. This includes a reduction in income tax rates, freezing property taxes and modernizing the sales tax structure so that we have a broad-based tax system. “In particular, Bruce’s call for a permanent extension of the Research & Development tax credit is critical because innovation is the lifeblood of manufacturing,” Baise added. “His commitment to reduce the high cost of workers’ compensation and bring long awaited tort reform - two issues that plague Illinois employers, particularly those in the manufacturing - are long overdue.”
Finally, Baise referenced the current limbo with hydraulic fracturing as a perfect example of the challenges facing business and state government. “More than a year ago, business leaders, labor unions and environmental organizations stood together and announced a comprehensive deal for hydraulic fracturing. This innovative technology will create tens of thousands of jobs and millions of dollars in new tax revenue. It has the strongest environmental safeguards in the nation and will reduce our reliance on foreign sources of energy. Today, a full 13 months after the measure was signed into law, the State has refused to issue the final rules. They have all kinds of excuses, but at the end of the day, they have failed to get the job done.”
I’ll add more as I receive them.
* Durkin and Radogno…
This afternoon, the leaders of the Republican caucuses in the Illinois House and Senate released the following statements in support of Bruce Rauner’s Jobs and Growth Agenda:
Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno (R-Lemont):
“The contrast in this election has never been more clear. Bruce Rauner wants to lower your income taxes while Pat Quinn wants to raise them 67%. Bruce Rauner wants to freeze your property taxes while Pat Quinn lets them rise. There’s only one candidate who has a vision to create jobs and turn Illinois into a growth economy, and that’s Bruce Rauner.”
House Republican Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs):
“Middle-class families across Illinois are struggling under the Quinn-Madigan policies of higher income taxes, higher property taxes, and burdensome regulations. Bruce Rauner’s plan offers the citizens of Illinois a new direction of lower taxes, high-paying jobs and real opportunities for growth.”
* Quinn campaign…
Below is the statement of Quinn for Illinois Communications Director Brooke Anderson following the unveiling today of the Rauner Tax by Republican nominee for governor Bruce Rauner. Rauner’s proposal emerged today after 500 days of hiding his budget from voters, over a period where he repeatedly reneged on promises for details and solutions:
“After 500 days of keeping voters in the dark about his plans to deal with the state’s structural challenges, we now have clarity on exactly where billionaire Republican Bruce Rauner wants to take Illinois: into a ditch.
“Not only did Rauner today propose a regressive tax that pushes the burden onto the middle class to preserve tax breaks for the very rich, the Rauner Tax doesn’t even remotely add up.
“Under Rauner’s policies, Illinois would face a nearly $10 billion budget hole next fiscal year, which would cause radical cuts to education, public safety and health care services. Even according to his own pamphlet, the Rauner Tax adds up to just $577 million.
“Only someone who uses elite accounting methods to avoid taxes himself would propose a tax hike on services that hurts small businesses, hits working families the hardest and doesn’t solve the problem at the same time. Only someone with nine homes would propose taxing trailer parks.
“Bruce Rauner believes that if Rauner succeeds, Illinois succeeds. But history shows that is a failed ideology and just like his proposal to cut the minimum wage, the Rauner Tax is designed to help himself.”
* Rauner react to Quinn react…
In 2009, Quinn Supported A Tax Hike Plan Passed By Senate Democrats That Would Have Applied The State Sales Tax To “Dozens Of Services.” “Democrats warned of severe cuts in education and health-care funding without a tax increase, but couldn’t muster the votes in the House for a two-year, 50 percent increase in the personal income tax. The House likewise balked at the prospect of considering a Senate-backed plan to raise the income tax 67 percent and apply the state sales tax to dozens of services. Republicans, the minority in both chambers, opposed all tax-increase plans and blamed Democrats for a new round of dysfunction made infamous during the tenure of ousted Gov. Rod Blagojevich.
With lawmakers facing the need to revisit the budget talks in coming months, post-session voting requirements will give the GOP a seat at the bargaining table. Rookie Gov. Pat Quinn, who supported both failed tax plans, said he would call legislative leaders together Monday to work on putting together a better budget than one that is ‘hopelessly out of balance.’” (Rick Pearson and Ray Long, “Tax Hike Defeated; Budget Gap Remains,” Chicago Tribune, 6/1/09)
· Quinn Testified In Favor Of The Senate Tax Hike Plan Before An Illinois House Committee. “The Senate Democrats’ 2009 income tax increase bill also included a provision extending the state’s sales tax to services, such as haircuts, that are not taxed now. Quinn testified for the bill before a House committee.” (Chris Wetterich, “Quinn, Brady Far Apart On Taxes,” The State Journal-Register, 10/3/10)
The Tax Plan Quinn Supported Taxed The Following Services (not an exhaustive list):
(5) Dry cleaning and laundry, except coin-operated (81232).
(18) Taxi and Limousine services (4853)
(12) Coin operated video games and pinball machines (71312)
(20) Motion picture theaters, except drive-in theaters (512131)
(30) Laundry and dry cleaning services, coin-operated (81231).
(37) Circuses and fairs — admission and games (7113).
(38) Cable and other program distribution (5175).
(39) Rental of video tapes for home viewing (53223).
* From the union-backed Illinois Freedom PAC…
Today, Billionaire GOP candidate Bruce Rauner held a press conference to propose 30 new regressive taxes. It comes on the heels of a bevy of news that Rauner and Rauner financed companies avoided taxes and overbilled taxpayers.
· Rauner used loopholes now under scrutiny by the IRS to slash his tax obligation. He avoided contributing a single penny to Social Security and Medicare for two straight years, in 2010 and 2011, but says he’s open to taxing retirement income including Social Security.
· Rauner was a director of HealthRev, which failed to pay $81,000 in Illinois taxes. The company also made thousands in contributions to Cook County officials after it received a multi-million dollar government contract.
· American Habilitations Services - a Rauner financed firm linked to deaths, assaults, and legal action - was cited by the state of Florida for overbilling taxpayers.
· The firm Rauner ran for 31 years, GTCR, failed to pay nearly $13,000 in unemployment taxes in 2005.
· Rauner’s current company, R8, failed to pay the state’s business license fee.
“It’s crystal clear: Billionaire Bruce Rauner wants middle class families to pay more, while he pays less,” said Neal Waltmire, Communications Director for Illinois Freedom PAC. “He already pays a lower tax rate than millions of Illinois’ middle class families, but apparently exploiting the status quo is not good enough for him.”
* From Brooke…
They are wrong about the Governor’s position. He opposes a tax on services as he stated unequivocally and spelled out, in his Budget Address this year.
“I won’t institute any new, unfair taxes on everyday services that working people rely on. It hurts working families the most to tax basic services like going to the Laundromat…like taking your child to daycare…like visiting the barber shop…or taking your dog to the vet.
We should not create a new and unfair tax burden on everyday families and the small businesses that serve them.”
http://www2.illinois.gov/gov/Documents/Budget/FY15%20Budget%20Address.pdf
* The Rauner folks point out that laundromats, daycare, barbershops and vet care - all mentioned by Quinn in his speech - are not covered by Rauner’s proposal.
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* The full plan is here. My initial take is it looks both fairly specific and pretty darned gutsy, which are both rarities from Bruce Rauner.
However - and this is a huge “however” - Rauner’s own data shows that a wide service tax would only raise $577 million a year. That’s barely a drop in the bucket. You can’t noticeably cut the income tax and expect to freeze property taxes on a mere half bil in new revenues…
* From a recent Paul Simon Institute poll…
8. Do you favor or oppose a proposal to make permanent the recently passed temporary state income tax increase?
Strongly favor 11.8%
Favor 16.8%
Oppose 19.0%
Strongly oppose 44.3%
Other/Don’t know 8.0%
9. Do you favor or oppose expanding the sales tax to cover services like dry cleaning or haircuts, which are not currently taxed?
Strongly favor 16.3%
Favor 21.0%
Oppose 16.0%
Strongly oppose 43.5%
Other/Don’t know 3.2%
So, the opposition to a service tax is pretty nearly as strong as opposition to extending the income tax hike.
…Adding… Rauner’s plan exempts those particular services. And they must’ve tested this other stuff. We’ll see.
* Also, he wants to tax radio and TV advertising. Yikes. That takes some stones, man.
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Are the grownups asserting themselves?
Thursday, Jul 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* After initially casting petulant aspersions on the US Department of Justice’s request to delay testimony by subpoenaed witnesses before the Legislative Audit Commission, today’s editorial says the Commission should abide by the request…
Lawmakers have little choice now but to abide by the U.S. attorney’s request that they don’t conduct interviews. If they pursue this, their subjects are just going to refuse. Federal prosecutors have not, though, tried to curb the lawmakers’ investigation of documents related to the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative.
* Now, let’s look back at this excerpt of a June 4th Trib editorial…
Quinn wants Rauner to issue an austere budget plan so Quinn’s plan isn’t the only politically perilous one on voters’ radar.
Rauner plainly sees no reason to oblige for now. He’s surely relishing last week’s projection by the political numbers geeks at FiveThirtyEight.com: Early polling suggests that Quinn has a 25 percent chance of winning — and a 75 percent chance of losing — on Nov. 4. Of all the states with elections for governor this year, only Pennsylvania now has a higher likelihood than Illinois of switching parties.
Rauner will have to get more specific about his spending priorities. Voters aren’t paying much attention in June to an election to be held in November. But come fall, if Rauner doesn’t get into the dirty details, he’s going to invite comparisons to 1968 and Richard Nixon’s so-called secret plan to get the nation out of the Vietnam War.
* From an editorial this week…
At arguably the worst moment in Illinois’ two centuries of statehood, Quinn has signed a fictional state budget for the current fiscal year; Rauner offers no prospective budget at all, only talking points. Both of them are failing the people of Illinois.
Ask yourself: What, other than stern platitudes, has Quinn told you he would do differently to revive Illinois, its government and its nationally high unemployment rate? Instead, Quinn’s campaign is focused on shrill attacks on his opponent rather than a case for giving Quinn yet another chance to … do what else?
And ask yourself: What has Rauner told you he will do to broadly reconfigure state government, its financial obligations and the retirement systems that strangle its spending on other priorities? Rauner’s campaign so far has been a thin gruel of “Elect me — I’ll think of something” and “The failed incumbent is too weak to manhandle the other Democrats who run this state.”
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Rate the new Quinn video
Thursday, Jul 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Keep in mind, this isn’t a TV ad, it’s a YouTube video…
* The accompanying press release…
Quinn for Illinois launched a new Web video today highlighting Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner’s leadership style and record of mismanagement after a recent report brought to light that residents with developmental disabilities at long-term care facilities he owned were subjected to abuse, neglect and “deplorable” conditions.
Rather than take responsibility for the tragic results at the Rauner homes and explain what went wrong and what he did about it, he instead placed blame for drownings, deadly attacks and rapes on the backs of his “management team.” In video footage, Rauner says what happened at his American Habilitation Services was not just bad for the residents it was also: “a bad investment for us.”
Rauner has refused to detail what and when he knew of the “deplorable” conditions, or what he has done to remedy them.
The video includes reaction from state Rep. Greg Harris (D-Chicago) - a leading advocate for protecting the most vulnerable - who summed up Rauner’s M.O. earlier this week:
“With Rauner, in his case, both with nursing homes and his organization that dealt with people with disabilities, the profits seemed to come first, the people seemed to come second.”
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Money reports
Thursday, Jul 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Pearson…
Democratic comptroller nominee Sheila Simon, currently the state’s lieutenant governor, reported more than $510,000 left as she takes on incumbent Republican Judy Baar Topinka.
Simon reported raising more than $181,000 in the three-month reporting period. Topinka’s report had not been filed late Tuesday, but she entered the quarter with more than $1.1 million.
Topinka eventually reported raising $148K with $1.26 million on hand.
* Riopell…
In the 11th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Bill Foster, a Naperville Democrat, raised $350,000 in the second three months of the year and reported having $1.4 million in the bank at the end of June.
Challenger Darlene Senger, a Naperville Republican state legislator, raised about $193,000 and had about $150,000 on hand in the same time period. […]
The biggest political money in the suburbs is in the 10th District, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Brad Schneider of Deerfield reported last week having $1.9 million on hand and Republican challenger Bob Dold of Kenilworth said he had $1.65 million.
* Timmons…
U.S. Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-East Moline, raised more than $481,000 in the second quarter as she continued to build a strong fundraising lead over Republican Bobby Schilling ahead of the Nov. 4 election.
Mr. Schilling raised about $236,000 in the second quarter and had $500,000 in cash at the end of June compared to the $1.4 million available to Rep. Bustos, according to campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission,
Rep. Bustos has now raised more than $1.9 million in the 2014 election cycle while Mr. Schilling has raised $654,000. The Colona Republican is running to reclaim the 17th Congressional District seat he lost in 2012 to Rep. Bustos.
* Finke…
Sen. Andy Manar, D-Bunker Hill, had more than 60 times the cash on hand at the end of June as his opponent, Republican Linda Little of Decatur, based on just-filed campaign disclosure reports. […]
Manar, a former chief of staff to Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago, was by far the most prolific fundraiser among Springfield-area candidates. Manar reported raising nearly $205,000 during the three-month period while spending more than $31,000. Combined with money already in his campaign account, Manar had more than $578,000 available at the end of June.
Little, meanwhile, raised a little more than $9,000 during the period and spent about $4,100. Along with money already raised, Little had just less than $9,000 in her fund on June 30. Little’s biggest contributor was Lake Forest businessman Richard Uihlein, who is a frequent contributor to Republican candidates. Little also reported receiving campaign staff assistance from the Republican State Senate Campaign Committee.
Manar collected at least $93,000 in the last quarter from organized labor. The Illinois Education Association and the Laborers’ union each contributed $16,000, while the Service Employees International Union Healthcare Illinois and the Associated Firefighters each contributed $10,000.
Manar is supposed to be a Tier One target, but you would never know it by the money that Little’s raising and spending.
…Adding… More Timmons…
[Rep. Mike Smiddy] raised more than $104,000 in the second quarter of this year, according to the latest filing at the Illinois State Board of Elections. He had $105,000 in cash at the end of June compared to the $18,000 available to his Republican opponent, Jim Wozniak.
Mr. Wozniak, an assistant state’s attorney with Rock Island County, raised a little more than $20,000 in between April 1 and June 30. […]
[Sen. Mike Jacobs] has established a $110,000 fundraising lead over Republican opponent Neil Anderson, a Moline firefighter.
Sen. Jacobs raised $51,000 between April 1 and June 30, including $10,000 from the Associated Firefighters of Illinois Political Action Committee. He also received $5,000 from Southern Wine and Spirits of America Inc., of Florida, and $2,500 from MidAmerican Energy Co.
Mr. Anderson had $63,000 in cash at the end of the quarter compared to Sen. Jacobs’ balance of $173,000.
* And from the Mike Bost campaign…
The Bost for Congress campaign today released the following statement from campaign spokesman Ron Deedrick in reaction to the news that Mike Bost raised more money than incumbent Congressman Bill Enyart. The information is according to the latest reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
“Thanks to support from voters across the 12th District, Mike Bost succeeded in out-raising Congressman Bill Enyart by almost $30,000 over the second quarter. Bill Enyart is trailing in the polls and trailing in fundraising, it’s clear that Mike Bost has the momentum in this critical race,” Deedrick said. “Bost has constantly out raised Congressman Enyart for the last 4 months since the primary election. In May the campaign released an internal poll showing Bost leading by 6 points.”
Enyart raised $250,588, spent $128,117 and had $677,498 on hand. Bost raised $283,407, spent $136,360 and had $347,665 on hand.
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Text of Rod Blagojevich’s appeal
Thursday, Jul 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Emphasis added…
In McCutcheon v. Federal Election Com’n, 134 S. Ct. 1434 (2014), the Court struck down a law restricting aggregate limits on political (campaign) contributions. First, the Court noted that political contributions are protected speech under the First Amendment. McCutcheon, 134 S. Ct. at 1444, 1448. To restrict protected speech, the government must have a compelling interest. Id., at 1444. The government does have a compelling interest in “preventing quid pro quo corruption or its appearance …..” Id., at 1445.
The McCutcheon Court further explained that the government’s interest “in preventing the appearance of corruption is equally confined to the appearance of quid pro quo corruption, the Government may not seek to limit the appearance of mere influence or access.” Id., at 1451 (citation omitted). “The line between quid pro quo corruption and general influence may seem vague at times, but the distinction must be respected in order to safeguard basic First Amendment rights. In addition, [i]n drawing that line, the First Amendment requires us to err on the side of protecting political speech rather than suppressing it.” Id., 1451 (citations and internal quotation marks omitted).
Blagojevich’s conviction is based in large part on his attempts to solicit campaign contributions. In this appeal, he argues that the lower court’s instructions to the jury on this issue “omitted the quid pro quo requirement that the government prove that Blagojevich’s requests for campaign contributions were made in return for an ‘explicit promise or undertaking’ to perform or not perform an official act.” Def. Brief, p.50. Instead, Blagojevich’s jury was told to convict on the lower standard that he attempted to obtain a campaign contribution “knowing or believing that it would be given to him in return for the taking, withholding, or other influencing of specific official action.” Def. Brief, at p. 51.
The McCutcheon decision thus supports Blagojevich’s position that, where a criminal prosecution is based upon attempts to solicit campaign contributions, the government must prove a quid pro quo or explicit promise.
* Let’s go to the AP for some context…
Blagojevich’s attorneys filed their appeal one year ago, and the sides held oral arguments before a three-judge panel in Chicago in December. Going more than six months without a decision on an appeal is unusual, though it is impossible to say if the lengthy consideration bodes well for Blagojevich or for prosecutors.
Prosecutors are likely to file a response to Wednesday’s defense filing, though they aren’t required to. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Chicago, Randall Samborn, declined any comment.
The panel’s hard-hitting questions for a Blagojevich prosecutor during oral arguments raised defense hopes that some convictions could be thrown out. The questions’ focus: Exactly where is the line between legal and illegal political wheeling and dealing? And did Blagojevich cross it?
At one point, Judge Frank Easterbrook noted how exceptional the prosecution of Blagojevich was. He even compared Blagojevich’s bid to land a Cabinet seat to how President Dwight Eisenhower named Earl Warren to the U.S. Supreme Court after Warren offered Eisenhower key political support during the 1952 campaign.
* From that earlier hearing…
With some passion behind his remarks, [former chief judge of the U.S. 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, the conservative Frank Easterbrook] asked if there was “any criminal conviction in U.S. history” other than Blagojevich’s in which a politician was convicted for trying to trade one job for another.
“I’m aware of none,” responded the government’s Debra Bonamici.
Her answer seemed to hang in the air for a bit as courtroom observers took that in.
Easterbrook described how in the run-up to the 1952 presidential election, then-California Gov. Earl Warren offered to use his post to “deliver California” for Eisenhower in return for a seat on the Supreme Court. It was a deal that Eisenhower eventually honored.
“If I understand your position, Earl Warren should have gone to prison, Dwight Eisenhower should have gone to prison,” Easterbrook implored. “Can that possibly be right?”
Her eventual answer was nuanced, including explaining the allegations included Blagojevich’s attempt to have a 501c (4) set up for him to head if he appointed Valerie Jarrett to the U.S. Senate.
* At the time, Wordslinger was befuddled by this turn of events…
“If I understand your position, Earl Warren should have gone to prison, Dwight Eisenhower should have gone to prison,” Easterbrook implored. “Can that possibly be right?”–
That’s nonsense. Show me, in any written history, that Warren made such an “offer” and that Eisenhower agreed to “honor” it.
As it was, 77 of the 90-member California delegation voted for Warren at the convention, so Warren hardly “delivered” the state to Ike.
How the U.S. attorney could let that fiction slide just shows how unprepared the office was.
The facts:
In 1952, Gov. Warren ran as a favorite son, and thought he had the 90-vote California delegation sewn up. In truth, Sen. Nixon spent the train ride from Sacramento to Chicago picking off a handful of Warren delegates for Ike.
Because of this, in part, Ike’s biggest backers, Gov. Dewey and Gen. Clay, recommended him for VP. Nixon was also considered an attractive VP candidate for his youth, war service and for being from the booming West. In addition, he served as a bridge between the right-wing isolationists (for the Hiss case) and the moderate East Coast internationalists (for his support of NATO).
After Ike was elected president, he nominated Warren for solicitor general, with the idea of appointing him to the next open Supreme Court seat, which he did.
But that was to keep Warren from being a primary rival in 1956 and to placate the liberal wing of the GOP, just as Lincoln did with Salmon Chase and the Radical Republicans in 1864.
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* Today’s live video link is here. I’ll be posting news story excerpts in the feed below so you can discuss this goofy mess…
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