CFL takes a pass on mayor’s race
Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Fran Spielman…
The Chicago Federation of Labor decided Monday to remain neutral in the historic April 2 mayoral runoff in a move likely to be seen as a boon to Lori Lightfoot and a major blow to Toni Preckwinkle. […]
On Monday, the CFL met with and questioned both candidates and discovered little difference between their positions on labor issues. […]
Sources said IBEW Local 134 and Operating Engineers Local 399 are leaning toward endorsing Preckwinkle.
Laborers Unions that provided heavy support to Susana Mendoza in Round One are leaning toward Lightfoot. So is Local 9 of the Electricians Union.
Operating Engineers Local 150 — another union with a Sun-Times Media ownership stake — will either endorse Lightfoot or remain neutral, sources said. That union has ties to a dark-money PAC that spent $1.2 million to blanket the television airwaves with ads blasting Bill Daley as “Bruce Rauner’s mayor” and as a “Wall Street banker who got rich off working people.”
You’d think some of these unions would be open to backing Preckwinkle because she’ll still be county board chairman if she loses the mayor’s race. But her campaign was pretty heavy-handed with Mendoza, and that angered some of the comptroller’s institutional supporters. SEIU may have over-played its hand with other unions (and the CFL) as well.
There’s usually plenty of time to heal wounds inflicted during the primaries for countywide and statewide offices (unless you’re Bruce Rauner, but he’s the outlier with a lot of things). Chicago’s runoff day is just four weeks from tomorrow. It’s simply way too soon to forgive and forget and Lightfoot apparently isn’t a threatening presence to most unions.
* I think Preckwinkle’s biggest problem is that people who voted for everyone else in the first round did so at least partly because they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the purported “front-runner” - and that would be 84 percent of those who voted. Few really know who Lori Lightfoot is, which as a commenter pointed out earlier today is most definitely a big help at this point in the campaign. It’s hers to lose right now because she’s 1) not Toni Preckwinkle; and 2) a blank slate.
Preckwinkle has to firmly and quickly take Lightfoot down, gin up the aldermen with the warning that Lightfoot will take away their outside income and their ward prerogatives, hand out as much patronage as she can lay her hands on, get the church ladies on her side and otherwise rehabilitate her own image (although the latest poll found that, despite it all, she still has a 53-37 fav/unfav rating). All in four short weeks.
Whew.
Not to mention that yet another self-inflicted wound could prove politically fatal. She’d also better hope that nothing happens with the federal case against Ald. Ed Burke in the next few weeks.
* On the other hand, Lightfoot didn’t even have a campaign manager until now…
Lightfoot’s team has hired Manuel Perez, the campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, as campaign manager. […]
Perez also ran Garcia’s 2015 campaign against Mayor Rahm Emanuel and more recently ran Tanya Patino’s campaign for the 14th Ward seat won by disgraced Ald. Ed Burke.
Preckwinkle didn’t endorse Chuy when he ran for mayor, so this might be a little payback without having to get directly involved.
I’m curious whether other candidates who ran real campaigns held anything back from their Preckwinkle oppo books that they could now share with Lightfoot. Stay tuned.
* This should give you an idea of the direction Preckwinkle is going…
Meanwhile, Preckwinkle has hired three veteran African-American campaigners to her team. They reflect “the diversity and values” of the campaign, according to a release. Jessey Neves becomes campaign manager. She’s a longtime aide to Preckwinkle, who first served as director of communications and policy for her 2010 campaign for Cook County Board president. The Preckwinkle campaign has also hired Jason Lee as deputy campaign manager. Lee has served as political director of United Working Families and before that with the Chicago Teachers Union and AFSCME’s International Union. And Ty Cratic has been named director of operation. He currently is chairman of the Cook County Young Democrats and sits on the executive board of the Cook County Democratic Party.
Cratic’s LinkedIn page says he’s been Preckwinkle’s Director Of Operations since November.
* Meanwhile…
Lightfoot reported nearly $360,000 in campaign contributions between Wednesday and Saturday, with $100,000 alone coming from Chicago philanthropist Leslie Bluhm, $50,000 from Phillip Peters, of Chicago, and $10,000 from Northwest Side Ald. Scott Waguespack, 32nd, according to state election data. During that same stretch, Preckwinkle reported $6,500. Heading into the Feb. 28 election, Preckwinkle had reported raising about $4.6 million — second only to Bill Daley who raised $8.3 million. Of the 14 candidates, Lightfoot was in the middle of the pack. She reported raising $1.5 million.
The latest spending report from Comcast shows Preckwinkle just bought $42K in ads compared to Lightfoot’s $1,287.
* Related…
* In race for mayor, Lori Lightfoot and Toni Preckwinkle court the 2/3 of Chicago that didn’t vote for them
* Laura Washington: Two black women running for mayor? For some black men, that’s a nightmare
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Question of the day
Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Republican Sen. Chapin Rose’s SB2124…
Adds pneumatic guns, spring guns, paint ball guns, and B-B guns that have specified features and that are brought to school, any school-sponsored activity or event, or any activity or event that bears a reasonable relationship to school to the list of objects for which a student shall be expelled for a period of not less than one year. Provides that expulsion for these types of guns may be modified by the superintendent and the superintendent’s determination may be modified by the school board on a case-by-case basis.
Check the bill text for the “specified features”…
Any pneumatic gun, spring gun, paint ball gun, or B-B gun that expels a single globular projectile not exceeding 0.18 of an inch in diameter, has a maximum muzzle velocity of less than 700 feet per second, or expels breakable paint balls containing washable marking colors.
* The Question: Your thoughts on this bill?
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Illinois Policy ramps up spending
Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Hmm…
And that doesn’t include what they’re spending on my website, or on other platforms like YouTube, Google, etc.
Click here to see the ads they’ve been running on Facebook. Unsurprisingly, the main focus is the progressive income tax.
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* Press release…
Building on a strong team of diverse experts in their fields, Governor JB Pritzker announced the following personnel appointments:
Paula Basta will serve as Director of the Illinois Department of Aging (IDOA). Basta has dedicated her career to improving the lives of senior citizens and promoting women’s and LGBT rights. She currently serves at the director of senior services and health initiatives at the Chicago Housing Authority and teaches at the Loyola University School of Social Work. Basta came to the CHA after over 18 years at the Chicago Department of Family and Support Services, where she served as regional director of the Northeast (Levy) Senior Center from 2004 to 2018 and as the director of information and assistance from 2000 to 2004. Prior, Basta spent over four years as the executive director of H.O.M.E., Housing Opportunities & Maintenance for the Elderly, and nine as a social worker and the director of religious education at St. Clement Roman Catholic Church. She received her Master of Divinity from the McCormick Theological Seminary and her Bachelor of Science in social work from the University of Dayton. Basta was inducted to the Chicago LGBT Hall of Fame in 2009.
Ron Guerrier will serve as Chief Information Officer of the Illinois Department of Innovation and Technology (DoIT). Guerrier has more than 20 years of experience managing IT in the private sector and has served as chief information officer for multi-billion dollar companies since 2012. He last served as the CIO of Express Scripts, the nation’s largest pharmacy benefit manager, and also served the same role at Farmers Insurance Group from 2015 to 2018. Prior, Guerrier spent 17 years at Toyota North America, rising from an IT manager to division director to chief technology officer to vice president and chief information officer. He received his Master of Science in management from North Park University, his Bachelor of Science in finance from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and executive education certificates in information technology from the University of Chicago, University of California Berkeley, Boston University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Robert Muriel will serve as Director of the Illinois Department of Insurance (IDOI). Muriel is a civil and commercial lawyer with more than 20 years of experience representing small businesses and professionals in trials, appeals and arbitrations in state and federal courts. His core practice is civil and commercial litigation, including insurance coverage and bad faith claims, financial fraud claims, legal malpractice cases and consumer class action cases, including actions brought under the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act. Muriel was formerly President of the Hispanic Lawyers Association of Illinois and President of the Alumni Board of Governors for Loyola University Chicago School of Law. He also has served on numerous civic boards, including serving on the Board of Directors for the AIDS Legal Council of Chicago, Almost Home Kids and the Executive Committee for the Alliance of Bar Associations for Judicial Screening. He received his Juris Doctor from the Loyola University School of Law and bachelor’s degrees in accounting and finance from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
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Tax odds and ends
Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Finke…
One issue the Republicans mostly sidestepped at the news conference was polling data that shows there is support among both Democrats and Republicans for a graduated tax.
Twice the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute polled people on the graduated income tax. To a certain extent, the results were pretty much what you’d expect. Self-described liberals and Democrats thought the idea was great. The margin was a little closer among people who called themselves moderates or independents, although support among those folks was still pretty overwhelming.
The really interesting result was among people who said they consider themselves to be conservatives or Republicans. Among conservatives, 49 percent were in favor of a graduated tax and 47 percent against. Among Republicans, the margin was 51 percent in favor and 44 percent against.
Now any individual poll can come up with oddball results, but the Paul Simon people found very similar results in polls conducted in consecutive years. Bottom line is that Republican voters may not be as opposed to the idea of a graduated tax as Republican lawmakers.
That’s true about rank-and-file Republican support for a graduated income tax in Illinois.
But the issue has been on the back burner forever, so it hasn’t yet been truly polarized by the two parties. If the measure does get on the ballot and big money is spent against it and Republicans come out publicly opposing it and it’s obviously backed by Democrats, that partisan split could very well change. It happens a lot.
* Sweeny…
Pritzker noted that other states around Illinois have graduated income taxes, mentioning Wisconsin and Iowa. In both of those states, however, low- and middle-income people pay a higher percentage of their income in state income taxes than Illinoisans do.
In Wisconsin, a married couple filing jointly and making $14,980 a year pays 5.84 percent in state income taxes; if they make $29,960 or more they pay 6.27 percent; the rate is 7.65 percent for couples making $336,200 and up.
In Iowa, a married couple making $14,382 a year pays 6.12 percent; if they make $31,960 they pay 6.8 percent; at $47,940 the rate kicks up to 7.92 percent, and if that couple earns $71,910 or more they pay 8.98 percent to the Hawkeye State.
For the kabillionth time, you have to look at effective tax rates, meaning the rate after deductions, exemptions, etc. A married Wisconsin couple who made $14,980 a year and filed jointly with two deductions would pay zero state income taxes. They’d face an effective tax rate of just 1.56 percent and pay $468 if they made $29,960.
The same is true of Iowa. Click here to play with that state’s effective rates.
The first thing Pritzker’s new Think Big group had better do is educate political writers about how to calculate effective state tax rates.
* And, finally…
A five-cent tax on single-use plastic bags could add up for the average family, based on current use rates.
Environmental groups have estimated 100 billion plastic bags are brought home by U.S. consumers a year — nearly one bag per person a day — or nearly 1,500 a year for a family of four.
The statewide five-cent bag tax proposed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker in his first budget address would bring in about $20 million a year, and it’s far from a done deal. But should it come to pass, it could add up to an additional $75 in annual taxes for a household bringing home 1,500 plastic bags a year.
Or, plastic bag use could fall, as it has in Chicago…
Before the tax went into effect Feb. 1, shoppers took home an average of 2.3 disposable bags every time they shopped at a big grocery store. After the tax went into effect, shoppers took home one fewer bag, according to the study.
And in the UK…
England was the last country in the U.K. to introduce a charge for single-use plastic bags. Wales was the first to do so, in 2011, followed by Northern Ireland in 2013 and Scotland in 2014. All saw plastic bag use decrease by 70-80% year-on-year.
And Israel…
On Jan. 1, 2017, Israel began requiring its supermarket chains to charge 3 cents for plastic bags. Since then, plastic bag use has dropped 80 percent, according to the country’s Environmental Protection Ministry.
While that means Illinois families may not actually wind up paying $75 a year in bag taxes, it also means the state may not raise $20 million from the tax, but that’s a rounding error on a rounding error. It’s essentially using a minuscule budget line to change behavior.
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Happy Pulaski Day!
Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Herald & Review…
Brigadier Gen. Casimir Pulaski was a Polish military officer who fought beside American colonists against the British during the Revolutionary War.
Born in Warsaw, Poland, on March 6, 1745, he was a cavalry officer and rebelled against the Polish King Stanislaw II, which forced him to exile in France. He met Benjamin Franklin, who recruited him to the colonies and the fight for independence. He offered his services as a private solider to Gen. George Washington. […]
Pulaski never made it to the land that would become Illinois prior to his 1779 death, but many Polish people did. Chicago was once home to the largest population of Poles outside of Warsaw, and Pulaski was a proud hero.
Mount Pulaski in Logan County, founded in 1836, is named in his honor.
* WBEZ…
As early as the 1930s, Polish Americans in Chicago lobbied for public recognition of Casimir Pulaski. Their first major victory was a declaration, in 1933, that the former “Crawford Road” in Chicago would now be “Pulaski Road.” […]
In the 1970s, the Polish American Congress in Chicago took up the cause of a statewide Casimir Pulaski holiday. In 1977, they succeeded in getting a law passed designating the first Monday in March “Casimir Pulaski Day.” This was only a commemorative day, meaning Illinois schools, public offices and banks stayed open. […]
The lobbying efforts simmered for years, and gathered momentum again in 1985 when State Senator Leroy Lemke introduced a bill in the Illinois Senate to make Casimir Pulaski Day a full public holiday. It would give public schools and some government offices a day off, at the governor’s discretion. […]
Dominic Pacyga says the timing suggests the bill got traction due to the recent passage, in 1983, of a national holiday honoring Martin Luther King, Jr., the slain civil rights activist. Lawmakers knew Martin Luther King Day would go into effect the next year, in 1986. Pacyga says the “white ethnic” community, including Poles, Jews, Italians, Greeks, Irish, wanted something similar. “There was a feeling the white ethnic community should also have a day, and in Illinois, it made sense to make it Pulaski Day, because the Polish community is so large in Chicago.”
Also, Jim Thompson was up for reelection in 1986, and this was seen back then as an effort to capture the white etnik “Reagan Democrats” vote. The Democrats may have passed the bill, but, as we say around here, governors own.
The holiday was made optional for schools in the 1990s and even CPS stays open now.
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Don’t bogart that supply, my friends
Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Medical marijuana growers, once banned from making political contributions, are now spending money to influence the expected legalization of recreational cannabis in Illinois in an effort to keep that market to themselves — at least temporarily.
Leading members of the industry have formed a political action committee, hired a former state senator as a lobbyist and begun contributing to political office holders.
The aim is to limit cultivation licenses being issued to competitors if recreational pot is legalized. Critics say that would create a market that benefits a small number of growers at the expense of retail marijuana stores and the public. And it runs counter to two new studies that find that demand will race past the current capacity.
* Press release…
Lawmakers sponsoring legislation to legalize adult-use cannabis in Illinois released a study today showing that demand is likely to far exceed what the state’s existing licensed growers can supply.
The study, commissioned by State Senator Heather Steans (D-Chicago) and State Rep. Kelly Cassidy, found that demand could rise as high as 550,000 pounds of cannabis per year, highlighting the need for Illinois to expand its existing medical cannabis market to both meet demand and to diversify, allowing for the participation of more minority business owners.
“For generations, government policy of mass incarceration increased racial disparities by locking up thousands of individuals for marijuana use or possession,” said State Senator Toi Hutchinson (D-Chicago Heights), the legislation’s chief co-sponsor in the Senate. “Now, as we are discussing legalization, it is of the utmost importance that we learn from these mistakes and acknowledge the lingering effects these policies continue to have in neighborhoods across this state. No conversation about legalization can happen absent that conversation.”
The study, performed by the consulting firm Freedman & Koski, examined the current adult-use market in Illinois and concluded that the existing industry could only supply between 35-54 percent of its demand.
“We’re not just trying to add diversity because it looks good. It’s not just diversity for diversity’s sake. It’s for equity’s sake; equity includes economics, it includes criminal justice,” said State Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth, who is the chief co-sponsor of the legislation in the House. “We’re talking about specific communities that need to be made whole. When this is all normal and nice and people are making money, we will not have succeeded if black people and other people of color are shut out.”
A clearer picture of demand also provides a better estimate of revenue; based on the study’s results, Illinois could expect approximately between $440,000 and $670,000 annually, not including the excise tax imposed on cannabis cultivators.
“While we should not expect cannabis sales to be a one-stop solution to Illinois’ financial woes, it is encouraging to see evidence that we are on the brink of establishing a thriving, robust industry to meet the demands of many Illinoisans who have until now been turning to the criminal market,” said Steans, the legislation’s Senate sponsor. “Prohibition does not work, and legalizing adult-use cannabis will bring those sales into the light and meet an obvious demand among the people of our state.”
The study cautions that initial regulatory costs will keep legal prices above illicit market prices, leading some consumers to continue making illegal purchases. Within the first few years, however, initial regulatory costs will decrease; economies of scale will push prices down; and the regulated market will capture or displace the criminal market, according to the report.
The study is here.
* Tribune…
The legislators’ report is the second one to conclude that Illinois will have a marijuana shortage if the drug becomes legal for general use. Illinois NORML says the state has the most expensive marijuana in the country and is already seeing shortages of some products for medical customers.
The study suggested licensing more cultivators and allowing existing dispensaries to begin growing marijuana, since they have already been vetted and authorized by the state to handle the drug. […]
Lobbyist Tim McAnarney of Healthy and Productive Illinois, which opposes recreational marijuana, said the report’s projections suggest a burgeoning black market when the drug is legalized. Homegrown pot, which would be allowed under some legislation, could become a ruinous mainstay, he said.
“I would anticipate that once the product is legalized, once it’s being grown in people’s homes, increased use is going to be devastating to the youth of Illinois,” he said. “The more available it is, the more it’s going to be used.”
Dude. C’mon.
NORML’s study, still in its draft form, is here. Headline explained here.
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Another day, another fact check
Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Gov. Pritzker’s budget address…
Our second option is to raise revenue with our current regressive flat income tax system and impose more flat taxes which fall disproportionately on the working poor and the middle class. This option could require imposing sales taxes on services, implementing a retirement tax, or raising the income tax overall by around 20%. Or all of the above. For a family earning $100,000, that means paying almost a thousand dollars more in income taxes, and their property taxes will continue their upward march as they always have.
* The BGA rated these claims “Mostly False”…
But experts told us that extending the [sales] tax to cover an array of services, such as landscaping, hair styling and laundry, could not only bring in more revenue but help make the sales tax less regressive and benefit those with less disposable income by providing a cushion to lower rates overall.
“As income rises, the share of your expenditures that are spent on services generally rises,” said David Merriman, an economist who heads the Fiscal Futures Project at the University of Illinois. […]
Pritzker would be correct about harming the poor and middle class if Illinois simply did away with the retirement income break in its entirety. But that’s not how it’s done by most states.
In general, states that tax retirement income nonetheless shield some of it from taxation. That’s the case in Indiana and Michigan, which, like Illinois, have flat-rate income taxes. Both neighboring states exempt Social Security income, and Michigan also allows thousands of dollars in deductions on pension and annuity benefits. […]
In his budget speech, Pritzker held out his graduated tax push as the only way to inject more fairness into a tax system currently charging everyone at the same rate. But during last year’s primary campaign, Pritzker himself floated a revenue-raising plan to make the single-rate system more progressive that would require legislative approval but no constitutional change.
Lots of woulda, coulda, shoulda in there.
* This is what the governor’s office sent to the BGA…
• Governor Pritzker is advocating to change the tax system because the system of flat taxes in place today as currently structured is regressive. That hurts working people more than it hurts the wealthy. Illinois taxes are flat, so raising taxes within the current system would mean that the burden falls disproportionately on working people. Our goal is to finally put a comprehensive graduated income tax system in place.
• By its nature, today’s existing flat taxes are regressive because all taxpayers are paying the same rate, regardless of how much they earn.
• The middle class and those striving to get there in Illinois pay more of the percentage of their income in taxes than upper class Illinoisans. In fact, according to ITEP, Illinois ranks as the 8th least equitable system in the country: https://itep.org/whopays/
• Without a fair tax, low-income families pay a higher percentage of their income toward taxes. Overall, taking into account all taxes Illinois families pay, the lowest 20% of income-earners, or those making less than $21,800 a year, pay 14.4% of their income toward taxes. The top 1%, or those earning more than $537,800, pay only 7.4% of their income toward taxes.
• This becomes clear when you look at families’ entire tax burden.
• Property taxes: In Illinois, the lowest 20% of income-earners, or those making less than $21,800 a year, pay 6% of their income toward property taxes. The top 1%, or those earning more than $537,400 a year, pay only 2.1% of their income in property taxes.
o Additionally, Illinois has some of the highest property taxes in the nation and studies have found that homeowners in low income areas are often paying the highest rates:https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/watchdog/taxdivide/
• Sales and excise taxes: In Illinois, the lowest 20% of income earners, or those making less than $21,800 a year, pay 4.8% of their income toward sales and excuse taxes. The top 1%, or those earning more than $537,400, pay only .8% of their income in sales and excise taxes.
• Between a flat income tax and property taxes, the tax burden already disproportionately falls on low and middle incomeIllinoisans.
• By its nature, a sales tax on services is also regressive because all taxpayers are paying the same rate, regardless of how much they earn. Raising taxes on services instead of a fair income tax would disproportionately impact the middle class and lower income families. Like the governor said, he does not support taxes that disproportionately impact low and middle income residents.
o States that have expanded their sales tax base, like Wisconsin that you mentioned, already have a fair tax system so their tax burden is already more equitable than Illinois.
▪ Wisconsin ranks 34th least equitable on the ITEP study cited above, compared to Illinois at 8th least equitable. (A higher number means a state is more equitable.)
• In order to tax retirement income in a progressive way, Illinois would need to amend the constitution to allow for a fair income tax. The governor is not pursuing taxing retirement income, but he is pursuing a fair income tax.
• During the campaign, the governor did not propose raising the flat tax with exemptions. He pointed to a plan already introduced by Sen. Don Harmon that attempts to create a progressive structure in a temporary way.
o However, amending the constitution to allow for a fair income tax is a much more comprehensive and permanent approach that would not be subject to a court challenge, which could not only delay implementation but means that it may never be enacted. This is why the governor is focused on this effort and is working with the General Assembly for a vote this session.
o What the governor proposed in his budget was a realistic long term solution to transform state finances and it could take effect in 18 months.
• Additionally, a fair income tax helps combat rising income inequality. For the past several decades, virtually all income growth has been made at the top income levels. A flat tax fails to capture that growth because the same rate applies to high and low income earners. While some states have taxcodes designed to tap into the wealth held by the top 1 percent, Illinois’ unfair flat tax rate continues to rely on taxes from those who have the least wealth in the state. A Fair Income Tax with lower rates for lower incomes and higher rates for higher incomes is needed to bring about tax fairness in Illinois and long-term, structural reform that produces stable and sustainable revenues and finally gets our fiscal house in order.
• A fair income tax also eases local property tax burdens and allows Illinois to invest more state dollars in public education. Increasing the state contribution to local governments and school districts eases the burden of local property taxes. According to the most recent data available from the National Center for Education Statistics, Illinois contributed just 24.9 percent of the total cost of public education in the 2014-2015 school year. Nationally, the average state contribution to elementary and secondary education is 46.6 percent.
o Neighboring states with a fair income tax system contribute a greater share of the overall cost of public education than Illinois:
• Iowa contributes 53.5 percent of the total cost to funding public education,
• Kentucky contributes 54.9 percent of the total cost to funding public education,
• Missouri contributes 32.5 percent of the total cost to funding public education, and
• Wisconsin contributes 45.9 percent of the total cost to funding public education.
• Finally, Governor Pritzker will work with the legislature to advance a fair tax amendment this session. As the discussion on the amendment moves forward, the rate structure will be negotiated with the General Assembly before a vote takes place so the public has a full and transparent understanding of the way forward.
The inevitable court challenges of high exemptions for retirees and graduated exemptions for everyone else are the administration’s best points. Tax hikes like those could be tied up in court for years and years.
Your thoughts?
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* Everyone saw headlines like these last week…
* Tuesday, February 26, 5:25 pm: Chicago On Pace For Record Low Turnout In Mayoral Election: Barring a late surge in voting, that puts Chicago on pace for a turnout of about 30 percent to 32 percent, the worst municipal election turnout since 2007, when the city set a record low of 33 percent turnout.
* Tuesday, February 26, 11:44pm: Chicago appears to set voting record for low turnout
* Wednesday, February 27, 11:05 am: Low voter turnout attributed to disillusionment with leaders, drop in interest from midterms: That anemic total ranks among the lowest turnout levels recorded in a city election since it was 33 percent in 2007, when Richard M. Daley won his sixth and final term.
* Wednesday, February 27, 6:22 pm: Too Many Candidates, Poor Youth Turnout Blamed for Low Vote Totals in Chicago
* Scott Kennedy, however, was urging caution…
* And he was right…
* And those mail-in ballots are having an impact…
As more mail-in ballots from Tuesday’s election are counted, Ald. Roderick Sawyer (6th) has seen his already tenuous lead shrink even more.
Records from the Chicago Board of Elections show that, as of Friday, Sawyer — son of former Mayor Eugene Sawyer and head of the council’s Black Caucus — was holding onto 50.02 percent of the vote in the 6th Ward aldermanic race.
The combined tally of his two opponents — Richard Wooten and Deborah Foster-Bonner — was just four votes fewer than Sawyer’s 5,020 votes. Foster-Bonner was in second place, with more than 31 percent of the vote.
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Poll: Lightfoot leads Preckwinkle 58-30
Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release…
Stand for Children IL PAC today released the results of the poll it commissioned for the Chicago mayoral run-off. The poll, conducted February 27-28, included 400 likely Chicago voters.
When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 58% of respondents chose Lori Lightfoot and 30% chose Toni Preckwinkle. 12% were undecided.
“Stand for Children has been going door to door to learn what Chicago voters believe the next mayor needs to do so that our schools best serve the children of this city, especially those who are traditionally overlooked and under-tapped because of their skin color, ZIP code, first language, or disability,” said Mimi Rodman, Stand IL PAC chairperson. “Both candidates have made education a priority of their campaigns. The question is which of them can truly deliver and put words into action.”
And if you didn’t know before, now you know why Preckwinkle is already up with negative TV ads. She has to drag Lightfoot down to her own level before she can build herself up.
* Be very careful with these crosstabs because the sample size is on the small side…
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently completed a survey of likely April 2019 voters in the City of Chicago, sponsored by Stand for Children. The survey shows Lori Lightfoot begins the race for Mayor with a commanding lead over Toni Preckwinkle. Both candidates are highly recognized and viewed favorably, but more than half of voters say they will back Lightfoot in April.
Some of the specific findings of the survey include the following:
• Both candidates are viewed favorably by a majority of voters. Sixty-four percent view Lightfoot favorably and 53 percent have a favorable opinion of Preckwinkle. However, Preckwinkle also has a greater number of detractors. While only ten percent of voters view Lightfoot unfavorably, more than one-third have an unfavorable opinion of Preckwinkle (37%).
• Voters favor Lightfoot over Preckwinkle by nearly a two-to-one margin. As shown in Figure 1, 58 percent of voters say they will support Lightfoot in the upcoming April election, while thirty percent back Toni Preckwinkle and 12 percent remain undecided.
Lightfoot leads among essentially every major subgroup of the Chicago electorate, including:
o 60% of women and 56% of men;
o 54% of voters under age 50, 68% of those aged 50-64, and 55% of those age 65 and over;
o 60% of college-educated voters and 55% of those without a four-year degree;
o 62% of liberals, 55% of moderates, and 54% of conservatives; and
o 62% of white voters, 59% of Latinos, and a 49% plurality of African-Americans. Lightfoot’s 49% to 40% lead among African-Americans is one of her narrowest of any demographic group.
Lightfoot also wins majority support from the backers of every major candidate that was defeated in the primary election – including a 54% to 38% margin of support among those who backed Bill Daley.
Survey Methodology: From February 27-28, 2019, FM3 completed 400 telephone interviews (on landlines and cellphones) with randomly-selected Chicago voters likely to participate in the April 2019 election. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. Due to rounding, not all results will sum to 100%.
* By the way, I was out with some folks having dinner Saturday night and one of them, a Chicago resident, received a live polling call. The pollster tested negative messages on both candidates.
I took some quick notes. The pollster tested Preckwinkle’s tax increases, an allegation that she’d made the county’s healthcare system worse, took money from Ed Burke, was a Joe Berrios ally and is a party boss who took TIF developer money.
Lightfoot, the recipients were told, made money representing big corporations, was censured over a deportation and is a faux reformer. Lightfoot pretends to be an outsider, but took appointments from Daley and Emanuel.
I don’t know who was behind that particular poll, but I assume everybody and their sister is in the field these days.
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You’re on your own, boys and girls
Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
A lobbyist who works for a business-related organization asked me a question the other day that I’ve been hearing a lot lately: “Who’s going to be the stopper now?”
What he meant was, who in the legislative process can be counted on these days to help derail bills which are deemed hostile to business interests?
The reason for the question was pretty obvious. Before this year, the last time House Speaker Michael Madigan allowed a minimum wage increase through his chamber that he knew would be signed into law was 13 years ago. And that bill only increased the minimum wage by a mere 25 cents an hour each year for four years. This year’s legislation that he supported will raise the minimum wage by $2.75 an hour in just 12 months starting next Jan. 1 and then eventually go all the way up to $15 an hour.
Gov. J.B. Pritzker set the tone for the spring session by jamming that bill through both chambers and now business types are reeling and searching for a way to at least slow down the rest of this progressive train.
It may eventually happen on its own. Pritzker has a super-ambitious legislative agenda and legislators could simply grow weary. Anyone who’s been around this game a while has seen this play out time and time again.
But that most certainly isn’t the case now. Pritzker has the momentum and he knows it and appears intent on trying to use it to his full advantage.
The simple truth is, business groups lost the 2018 election. Badly. And elections have consequences.
Some folks had argued as far back as last summer that business leaders should step up and take a role in shaping the debate over a potential minimum wage increase.
The wage regionalization argument didn’t just come out of nowhere. It has its roots in a New York bill signed into law back in 2016 which put Upstate and the suburbs on a slower path to $15 an hour than New York City. And Illinois already has mandated regionalized pay scales within its prevailing wage laws. A case could be made that a system which works pretty well for workers in the trades should be good for all workers.
So, the argument went, force candidate Pritzker to address the regionalization concept whenever he traveled to Downstate campaign events. Inject the concept into the broader public debate early in the process, long before any final legislative plans were set in stone.
But that idea was ultimately rejected, either because the groups were dead-set against any minimum wage hike and were fully supporting Gov. Bruce Rauner’s re-election, or out of fear or inertia.
And then Pritzker won by 16 points and interpreted his victory as an overwhelming mandate for progressive change, rather than as others saw it: Yet another repudiation election inextricably connected to yet another national “wave.”
The most dejected Illinoisan on election night in 2016 wasn’t a Hillary Clinton supporter, it was Gov. Rauner. Up until then, he had privately bragged that the Democrats had better get used to having him around because Clinton was going to win and that surely meant a backlash in 2018 and he’d be re-elected.
Oops.
And here we are. Speaker Madigan has not shown any willingness to at least overtly resume his role as the guy who would help out business interests in a pinch. Senate President John Cullerton is a liberal who believes in these things. And once a progressive bill gets to the governor’s desk, he’s gonna sign that thing as sure as you’re born.
If they’re going to have any success at beating back some of these bills, the business lobbyists will have to fully engage in the committee process rather than count on a single person to have their backs.
The simple fact is that some Democratic committee chairs could be more amenable to arguments than their committee membership.
And the governor’s inexplicable lack of legislative staff could work to the opponents’ advantage. Pritzker doesn’t yet have enough people on staff to read all these bills, let alone work them.
Most of the big stuff that gets a lot of attention and is prominently pushed by Pritzker is probably going to fly. Maybe not everything, but most. The rest of the progressive agenda will come down to endless fights in the trenches.
The left has enthusiasm, a governor and a favorable national political climate at its back. The other side has process experience and the natural fear of unknown consequences.
* Related…
* Rent control gains momentum after Chicago voters again give it thumbs up
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* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
We all know House Speaker Michael Madigan is vastly unpopular in Illinois. His record-long tenure, the sorry state of Illinois’ finances and the fact that Republicans spent tens of millions of dollars to make sure voters connected him to all our troubles certainly contributed.
But according to a poll taken in December, pharmaceutical companies are even more unpopular than Madigan.
The poll of 635 likely voters taken by Blue Sun Campaigns found 57 percent of Illinoisans say they have an unfavorable opinion of Madigan, while 65 percent have an unfavorable opinion of pharmaceutical companies. The pharmaceutical companies are even more unpopular in Illinois than President Donald Trump, whose unfavorable rating here was 62 percent in December.
Imagine that.
This should be no surprise since we’ve all read stories about skyrocketing prescription drug prices. There have been high-profile exposés like the ones about Martin “Pharma Bro” Shkreli, who jacked up the price of a vital drug for some HIV/AIDS patients by 5,000 percent.
And who could miss the many stories about diabetics who have cut back or stopped taking insulin altogether because prices have more than doubled since 2012?
The poll found almost a third of Illinoisans (32 percent) said they or a family member had “struggled to afford prescription drugs” in the past year. And another 27 percent said they or a family member hadn’t filled a prescription in the past year because the price was too high.
So, it’s probably no surprise that
Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.
* Related…
* Drug industry takes heat in legislative hearing over spiraling prices
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