* WTTW’s Paris Schutz asked US Sen. Dick Durbin tonight about the not so great night the Democratic Party had here Tuesday…
PS: You have the graduated tax amendment that failed, a lot of opponents sought to tie that to Mike Madigan. State Supreme Court Justice Thomas Kilbride, a Democrat, lost retention. Opponents tied him to Speaker Madigan. It looks like the Democrats are going to lose a few seats in the Statehouse. You kind of punted on this question before, but is Speaker Mike Madigan still the right person who should be leading your party, the Democratic Party in Illinois?
DD: Well, I can tell you all across our state, the advertising told the story. We paid a heavy price for the speaker’s chairmanship of the Democratic Party. Candidates who had little or no connection with him whatsoever were being tarred as Madigan allies who are behind corruption and so forth and so on. It was really disconcerting to see the price that we paid on that. I hope he takes that to heart and understands that his presence as chairman of our party is not helping.
PS: Does that mean you might get behind someone else who might run for chairman?
DD: Let’s wait and see what happens in the near-term here. The House is about to reconvene in Springfield, the Illinois House. And I’m sure this conversation is going to move to a new level now that the election’s behind us.
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* Sangamon County Judge Raylene Grischow ruled in favor of the governor today and dismissed six lawsuits filed by various plaintiffs, including attorney Tom DeVore. The judge also ruled against Rep. Darren Bailey’s attempt to amend his lawsuit. Click here for the document.
The plaintiffs had asked the judge to rule that no public health emergency exists in their respective counties to warrant Gov. Pritzker’s use of executive orders. They also asked the judge to enjoin the government from exercising his emergency powers in their counties (Edgar, Sangamon, Bond, Richland, Clinton and Adams).
* The objection is based on the plaintiffs’ interpretation of this section of the Illinois Emergency Management Act…
“Public health emergency” means an occurrence or imminent threat of an illness or health condition that: […]
(b) poses a high probability of any of the following harms:
(i) a large number of deaths in the affected population;
(ii) a large number of serious or long-term disabilities in the affected population; or
(iii) widespread exposure to an infectious or toxic agent that poses a significant risk of substantial future harm to a large number of people in the affected population.
The facts the plaintiffs alleged (the total number of people who’d been tested for, contracted and died from COVID-19) did not “set forth a good and sufficient cause of action,” the state complained.
Judge Grischow agreed that the plaintiffs’ complaints were indeed “devoid of facts” to support their conclusions. “The Court,” she wrote, “cautions counsel to fully set forth facts to support the conclusions.” In other words, don’t disguise a political speech as a legal brief.
But Judge Grischow did write that a legitimate cause of action may actually exist, so she allowed the plaintiffs to file again based on the actual law “in an effort to have the issues properly framed” for the court.
* Separately, Rep. Bailey had filed a motion to amend his own lawsuit to make it match the one which hit a brick wall today. Grischow informed Bailey he could file a new amended motion as long as it complied with the directions she gave to the other plaintiffs.
The plaintiffs have 21 days to get their act together and then the governor will have 21 days to respond.
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* From House Republican Leader Jim Durkin’s spokesperson Eleni Demertzis…
Rich,
Wanted to let you know that Leader Durkin announced he will be seeking the position of House Republican Leader for the 102nd General Assembly and has secured a majority of votes of the caucus today. Leader Durkin and the House Republican Caucus look forward to continuing the fight against corruption in the General Assembly, and working to fix the state’s fiscal woes for the voters who so desperately demand change. The people of Illinois sent a clear message for change by voting out four House Democrats allegiant to Madigan and the defeat of yet another tax hike proposal.
-Eleni
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* Gov. Pritzker today…
There will be cuts and they will be painful. And the worst thing is the same billionaires who lied to you about the fair tax are more than happy to hurt our public schools, shake the foundations of our cities and diminish our state, maybe because they think it won’t hurt them.
If they cared about giving your child the best public education available, if they wanted you to be able to afford childcare too, if they wanted your elderly parents to be cared for properly, just like their parents are, they wouldn’t have fought so hard to avoid paying just a little bit more.
People often say that I’m too positive and too optimistic. My optimism comes from the people of this great state. From all the things that they’ve endured together over this year, my optimism has not been shaken. We will get through this. We will get through all of this together.
Please excuse all transcription errors.
* Pritzker talked earlier about what those cuts would look like…
Option one immediately make billions of dollars in cuts. Let me offer some context to that. Already the state of Illinois invests on average less money per capita than the majority of states. That’s not to suggest that we can’t find significant cost reductions. We’ve been doing that. But if you think cutting government alone is the solution remember this, if you [garbled] federally protected programs court ordered obligations and our bond and pension debt, we would have to reduce discretionary spending in our state by approximately 15%. That’s 15% fewer state troopers. That’s 15% fewer students going to college. 15% fewer working parents receiving Child Care Assistance and 15% less money for your local public schools, which likely means that your property taxes will increase.
You could call this the Republican approach option.
* He also blamed the GOP…
Republicans swore their allegiance to the wealthiest interests in the state and they threw middle class families under the bus.
It’s no surprise these are the same people who pushed for Bruce Rauner’s agenda and will resurrect his failed crusade any way they can.
* And he warned he has a long memory…
I have not given up the battle to balance our budget and to put the state on firm fiscal footing. I will work every day to repair the fiscal instability that has been ailing Illinois,for more than three decades. I will work with the legislature to implement structural solutions to our decades-long budget [deficit].
But I will never forget that some of the wealthiest and most powerful interests in Illinois did everything in their power to put the burden of this on workers and their families, instead of shouldering some of the burden themselves.
* He was also asked whether Speaker Madigan’s reputation hurt the Fair Tax at the polls…
I think there’s enormous distrust in government all the way around.
*** UPDATE *** Pritzker was asked whether a flat tax hike was off the table. It isn’t. He said he was looking at all options…
I’m first and foremost focused on where we can trim our budget, where we can make cuts that won’t be painful for working families. I want to start with those. And we’re going to do everything we can.
But there is a point at which there’s no doubt that without revenue some of those cuts will start to hit things that do affect working families and I don’t know that anybody wants that to happen. Do we really want to cut education funding in the state? I don’t think so. Do we really want to cut funding, somebody asked a question about mental health services, or about the developmentally disabled and services that are offered to them? Do we really want to cut those? I don’t think so. And so, having said that, everything’s on the table because the fiscal challenge of the state is an extraordinarily high priority for me.
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Tax Foundation…
Illinois voters rejected a high graduated rate income tax while Arizonans embraced a large income tax rate increase for high earners, among the many attention-grabbing results from Tuesday’s elections—most of which, admittedly, weren’t about taxes. Coloradans, meanwhile, ratified an income tax cut in a year that many expected voters to instead be weighing in on a substantial income tax increase—and that was before the pandemic. […]
Arizona’s Proposition 208 creates an 8 percent top rate on income above $250,000, up from 4.5 percent currently. This bracket will not be adjusted for inflation. This move reverses decades of reform which lowered the state’s top rate from a high of 7 percent and will undermine Arizona’s status as a destination for those fleeing California’s taxes, and for snowbirds looking for a state with mild winters and mild taxes.
Because the new bracket will not be indexed to inflation, this will also result in what is called “bracket creep,” where income tax burdens increase even without an increase in real income. A person whose salary increases track with inflation could have the same amount of purchasing power year over year, while the change in the nominal dollar amount of earnings could push more of their income into the higher bracket. Because of this, the new Arizona bracket will capture progressively lower incomes as the value of the dollar decreases. […]
Colorado was the only state to give the option to lower income taxes, and voters took the state up on that opportunity. Colorado’s Proposition 116 will permanently lower the state income tax rate from 4.63 percent to 4.55 percent, retroactive to January 1, 2020. In fiscal year 2019, actual tax collections exceeded the revenue cap by $428 million, which triggered a Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR) refund in the form of a reduced income tax rate of 4.5 percent for tax year 2019. […]
Voters’ views on income taxes do not cleanly map to partisan preferences. In Colorado, the Democratic governor gestured at support for a rate cut brought to the ballot by conservative groups, and in Illinois, voters who overwhelmingly chose Democratic candidates also rejected a tax increase championed by their Democratic governor.
It’s always dangerous to draw firm conclusions, but if you had to summarize the past decade worth of results on income tax-related ballot measures, it might look like this: voters are wary of tax increases, even when they largely fall on other taxpayers (at least initially), but their willingness to consider the proposed increases is much greater if they’re given a clear picture of what the additional revenue is for and can evaluate whether they think the trade-off is worthwhile. Observers may agree or disagree with voters’ evaluations of those trade-offs, but it says something good about the system that voters clearly care about both costs and benefits.
* The Question: Why do you think the “Fair Tax” so badly failed here?
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* From last night…
Illinois Republican Party Chairman Tim Schneider released the following statement in response to the news that Pritzker’ signature tax hike, Justice Kilbride of the 3rd Judicial District, and Judy Cates of the 5th Judicial District all went down in defeat:
“Tonight, Illinois voters rejected Springfield politician’s tax hike gambit, Madigan’s Favorite Judge Tom Kilbride, and Madigan donor Judy Cates. The Illinois Republican Party and our allies are putting everyone on notice, regardless of office: if you align yourself with and take money from one of the most corrupt machine politicians in the country, we are coming for you. From the legislative branch to the judicial branch, we must eliminate all Madigan loyalists and the scourge of corruption that they actively enable.
With Pritzker Democrats no longer able to use taxpayers to bail them out of our state’s financial disaster and a Supreme Court no longer stacked with a majority of Madigan pawns, Illinois now has a chance to enact much needed reforms. We hope the Governor, Speaker, and Democratic leaders finally join us in the effort to put taxpayers first.”
* And while the main group against the progressive income tax never once mentioned Madigan in their TV ads, they did send mailers like this one…
Thoughts?
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* Interesting…
This comes despite the apparent House Democratic losses of Reps. Diane Pappas and Mary Edly-Allen to men. Rep. Monica Bristow was defeated by another woman and Rep. Nathan Reitz was defeated by a man. Democratic women appear to have defeated two Republican men, Reps. Grant Wehrli and Allen Skillicorn.
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7,538 new cases, 55 additional deaths, 3,761 hospitalized, 776 in the ICU, 327 on ventilators, 8.5 percent average case positivity rate, 10.1 percent average test positivity rate
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 7,538 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 55 additional deaths.
- Carroll County: 1 female 90s
- Cook County: 1 female 30s, 1 female 60s, 4 males 60s, 1 female 70s, 7 males 70s, 4 females 80s, 4 males 80s, 1 male 90s, 1 female 100+
- DuPage County: 1 male 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s, 1 male 90s
- Greene County: 1 female 70s
- Jo Daviess County: 1 female 90s
- Kankakee County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s
- Knox County: 1 male 90s
- Lake County: 1 male 60s
- Logan County: 1 male 80s
- Macon County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s
- Moultrie County: 1 female 80s
- Peoria County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 90s
- Pike County: 1 female 100+
- Randolph County: 1 female 60s
- Shelby County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s, 1 male 90s
- Stephenson County: 1 male 80s
- Whiteside County: 1 female 60s, 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s, 1 male 90s
- Will County: 1 female 60s
- Williamson County: 1 female 70s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 437,556 cases, including 9,933 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 71,857 specimens for a total 8,030,713. As of last night, 3,761 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 776 patients were in the ICU and 327 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 28 – November 3 is 8.5%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 28, 2020 – November 3, 2020 is 10.1%.
Case positivity and test positivity rate are both relevant and offer insight into the bigger COVID-19 picture. Case positivity helps us understand whether changes in the number of confirmed cases is due to more testing or due to more infections. Whereas, test positivity accounts for repeated testing and helps us understand how the virus is spreading in the population over time.
*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered. For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.
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Your feel-good story of the day
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Winnebago County Board candidate Angela Fellars on October 30…
Last night, after viewing the video of my candidate interview for WIFR the woman who was my (beloved) doctor through my pregnancies called me.
She said, in an alarmed tone - “Hi. How are the kids? How’s the campaign? But most importantly, Have you been having headaches? Blurred vision? Losing words? Feeling anxious or sad?”
I laughed. “Of course I have. I’m running for office during COVID/Remote Learning/Business Shut-downs, my family and friends are getting threats, there are hit mail pieces, there are protests everywhere, the hospital is closing, the library is closing, I’m needed everywhere at once… and… and…
And then she said - “How long has the left side of your face been doing that? I think you are showing symptoms of a stroke. I need you to go to the ER.”
She was right to be concerned. I was admitted into the hospital last evening. I’m receiving excellent care.
I have health insurance. Early detection is everything. The kids are with their dad and Jenni and they’re loved and safe. I’m going to be better than ok.
But it’s a wake up call for sure. I want to write a big, long essay on the importance of self-care for everyone, especially parents and community activists, and another on how we have got to stop being so Goddamned ok with the Goddamned cruelty in this city, and another on how it’s BS that a hospital publicly cutting services and staff is privately so full and understaffed that I was admitted to a private waiting room loveseat instead of a hospital bed - because there were no beds.
Instead of essays, I’m calling all of you to action. Please use these last 4 days to convince everyone you know to vote. Drive them there. Volunteer for a candidate. Make calls. Deliver literature. Then call your friends and make sure they’re ok. Tell everyone they’re important. Above all, be kind to yourself and others.
The election is in 4 days. Healthcare, libraries, schools, restaurants and other small businesses, real public safety, kindness and civility are on the ballot. Please, please vote.
Because if I come out of this with MORE work to do because people let cruelty and abuse take MORE power, y’all are getting the mom finger. 💚💙
* October 31…
Update:
I’m home from the hospital. When I was released Mercy (New campus) still didn’t have any available beds. (I don’t even know how to process that reality.) So much love and light to all of the people in there and to the nurses, doctors and staff too. (I’ll write about that after the elections)
I’m still “in line” waiting for a call letting me know an MRI is available. I might need a ride for that depending on when it happens.
Dan & Jenni still have the kids. I miss them. I’m doing ok.
I need help. It’s hard for me to ask for that because I know how busy and overwhelmed everyone is. But I don’t feel well enough to drive and I’m still having some difficulties with some basic things and with pain.
The most urgent/timely thing after health/kids is that me being sick meant that some crucial campaign items went undone. They are things that can still be done other ways, but I can’t do it alone.
This is GOTV (Get Out the Vote) weekend - If you’ve ever wanted to help out but were not sure how this is your moment! You do not have to live in the district to help. All costs will be covered.
And then she went on to list the things she needed people to do. (Also, the hospital didn’t have any beds partly because the pandemic is so intensely bad in that area, she told me today).
* Late last night…
We did it! We did it! 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻
Thank you so much to everyone who #ShowedUpAF for this campaign - I’m so thankful for everyone who cheered, volunteered, donated, and especially for those of you who voted.
I’m humbled and honored to be your Representative Elect of the 19th District.
I’ll write a more formal statement tomorrow - I just didn’t want to go to sleep without saying thank you.
Fellars told me she’s still not formally diagnosed, but that her neurologist suspects “I’ve had a series of mini-strokes since May.”
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Fitch states the obvious
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Eric Kim, Head of State Government Ratings, Fitch Ratings…
“Without the estimated $1.3B a new graduated income tax would have brought in this year, Illinois will need to consider other options to balance its budget.”
“Alternatives for Illinois include additional borrowing from previously authorized general obligation debt or the Federal Reserve’s MLF program, spending cuts or revenue options such as an increase in the flat income tax rate or changes to the sales tax.”
“Illinois’ upcoming post-election legislative session could be particularly consequential this fiscal year.”
Forget the Springfield COVID issue, they may want to delay the veto session just for this reason alone.
*** UPDATE *** Moody’s…
Moody’s has issued a short note today (attached) regarding voters in the State of Illinois (rated Baa3/negative outlook) who rejected a constitutional amendment that would have allowed progressive or “graduated” income tax rates. The amendment’s failure makes greater reliance on deficit financing more probable for Illinois and is therefore credit negative, but the state’s likely pursuit of other recurring fiscal strategies mitigates this impact.
The enacted general fund budget for fiscal 2021, which began July 1, addressed a deficit of about $6.1 billion in part through the $1.27 billion of new revenue projected from higher taxes on the state’s highest earners or, if the amendment was rejected, a comparable amount of borrowing under an enacted deficit bond statute. Rejection of the amendment may also increase the likelihood the state will resort to other credit-negative strategies, such as deferring near-term pension contributions, although to date the state has not articulated a contingency plan involving cuts to retirement benefit contributions.
Illinois will likely turn to revenue strategies requiring only approval by a simple majority in the Illinois General Assembly, offsetting the negative credit effect of the ballot outcome. Alternatives include increasing the 4.95% flat tax that applies to individual income or broadening the state sales tax to more services. Raising the flat income tax by 70 basis points, to 5.65%, would generate about $3 billion of additional revenue, the same as had been projected for the first full year under graduated income tax rates that the state had devised in connection with the proposed constitutional amendment. Raising the flat rate or imposing other revenue strategies during November legislative sessions could preclude the need for the $1.27 billion of deficit bonds.
The amendment’s failure also increases the probability of spending cuts, which could generate lasting fiscal benefits. Gov. Pritzker has already asked agency directors to identify spending cuts of 5% in the current fiscal year and 10% for the coming year, with exemptions for any government functions “directly responsible for life, safety and health” in connection with the state’s coronavirus response.
Moody’s declaration of “credit positive” or “credit negative” does not connote a rating or outlook change. It is indicative of the impact of a distinct event or development as one of many credit factors affecting the issuer.
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Ives concedes
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jeanne Ives…
My campaign took up the cause of freedom, prosperity and peace. We gave voters a clear choice between my opponent who will raise taxes and grow government, and my belief that more taxes will solve nothing. The contrast was clear. And there is some solace in the defeat of the Progressive Income Tax, which I fought against as a state legislator. I have always believed that the people in this district deserve more determination over their lives than government has over their lives. This is the cause that brought me to this campaign, and sustained me for 18 months - through a global pandemic, shutdowns, riots and civil unrest.
The pain of our defeat is far, far less than the pain of the restaurant owners I’ve met who have been forced to watch a lifetime of work and investment be destroyed by a handful of bureaucrats. Or the parents I talked to whose children are suffering after being shut out of the schools and the activities they love. Or the friends who have packed up their families - and moved away from Illinois and all its dysfunction, because it just didn’t make sense anymore.
The serious issue before us today is the cause for which the Republican Party has stood in it’s finest hours: that is the cause of freedom, law and order and equality of opportunity. These noble ideals are vanishing under uninterrupted and unchallenged Democrat rule in Illinois.
Most importantly, the issue that lies before all of us is the overwhelming might that we have handed government - whether intentionally or ignorantly. We have created a situation in which a handful of people can - literally - decide which businesses win and which lose; they can decide to educate your children - or not; they even can dictate which among us are essential and which are not.
In this election, we ran against - not only Sean Casten - but members of both parties’ establishments, the media and other institutions that have protected entrenched interests for decades.
My team fought hard, but in the end the power of the opposition was too great. It is somewhat unclear to me what lies ahead for Illinoisans.
The foundation of the Republican Party has been freedom, smart government and equality under the law. My campaign believed in those principles and fought hard for them. We did not run from this struggle. Our party should welcome the contrast between our defense of liberty, diversity of thought, and peaceful discourse with the Democrats’ reckless spending, division and increasingly violent pursuit of a radical agenda.
For me, this campaign is over.
To those who supported us in this endeavor, thank you for staying the course and for sharing our hope for an “Illinois Reveille.” Over 18 months, our team grew to 847 volunteers in the field, 25,043 individual donors across the United States (90.6% small dollar donors), and countless prayer warriors. I am deeply grateful for your enthusiasm and generosity. I hope it will be said of our campaign that we kept the faith to the end.
Her next move?
Meanwhile, in CD14, Sen. Jim Oberweis is ahead by about 2,000 votes.
…Adding… Speaking of the Oberweis race…
Congresswoman Lauren Underwood’s reelection campaign released the following statement, attributable to Lauren Underwood for Congress spokeswoman Andra Belknap:
“Votes are still being counted in this race and this race remains too close to call. We’re excited to see record-breaking voter turnout across this community, and commend our county clerks offices for their work during this unprecedented election.”
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Stay classy, Allen
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As we’ve already discussed, he barely campaigned at all…
As subscribers know, it looks like the House Republicans picked up a net of two seats yesterday. If he had actually worked, maybe he woulda won.
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* Press release…
State Rep. Emanuel Chris Welch released the following statement Wednesday regarding the Special Investigating Committee:
“The Committee is currently awaiting documents requested from ComEd, which the company has indicated they are working to provide within the coming weeks. Both Democrats and Republicans believe these documents will provide critical context to our work. While we face a surge in COVID cases across the state and new mitigation guidelines, holding a hearing without these requested documents would not only be unproductive but also an unnecessary risk for members, staff and our communities at large. Additionally, Fidel Marquez has declined to participate in this Committee’s work, further limiting what business the Committee can conduct without documents. Therefore, the Committee will postpone its hearing originally scheduled for this Thursday. Once members have received and reviewed ComEd’s documents, we will promptly reconvene with the appropriate safety measures in place.”
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* Press release…
Vote Yes For Fairness Chairman Quentin Fulks released the following statement:
“We are undoubtedly disappointed with this result but are proud of the millions of Illinoisans who cast their ballots in support of tax fairness in this election.
“Illinois is in a massive budget crisis due to years of a tax system that has protected millionaires and billionaires at the expense of our working families, a crisis that was only made worse by the Coronavirus pandemic. Republican legislators and their billionaire allies who brought us the dysfunction and pain of the Rauner years continue to stand in the way of common sense solutions, choosing instead to play partisan games and deceive the working families of our state. Now lawmakers must address a multi-billion dollar budget gap without the ability to ask the wealthy to pay their fair share. Fair Tax opponents must answer for whatever comes next.”
* Sun-Times…
Incomplete election results showed 55% of Illinoisans voting against the amendment, and 45% voting in favor with 97.6% of precincts reporting. State election officials said Tuesday there could be as many as 400,000 outstanding mail-in ballots.
The amendment needed a “yes” vote from a majority of all people voting in Tuesday’s election or 60% of people who specifically voted on the amendment.
Thoughts?
…Adding… Hannah Meisel from early this morning…
Pritzker this week warned that he and the Democratic supermajorities that control the legislature would be forced to consider raising taxes across the board to deal with Illinois’ significant structural budget deficit, or brace for significant budget cuts.
“The cuts, though, just to be clear: 15% cuts in public safety dollars, education dollars, in the dollars necessary for human services exactly at a moment when people need these things most,” Pritzker said hours before polls closed Tuesday.
Both major budget cuts or an income tax hike, however, are extremely difficult and politically risky. Deep cuts to some areas like social services would be impossible due to long-standing consent decrees and court orders, and much of the state’s $41 billion budget is taken up by legally obligated payments like school and Medicaid funding, pension contributions and debt service — aka the interest on loans Illinois has taken out over the years.
The libertarian-leaning Illinois Policy Institute on Wednesday, which had a hand in organizing thousands of Illinoisans online to mobilize against the graduated tax since early last year, used its election night statement declaring victory to also point in the direction of a constitutional amendment to address Illinois’ ballooning unpaid pension obligations.
After the Illinois Supreme Court in 2015 threw out a bipartisan 2013 attempt to change Illinois’ public employee pension systems to save the state billions over time, conservatives have turned their attention toward moving public support for getting rid of the pension protection clause in Illinois’ 1970 constitution — the same constitution graduated income tax proponents said was standing in the way of fiscal stability for Illinois.
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Leader Brady will not seek reelection
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady…
It has been an honor and privilege to serve as the leader of the Illinois Senate Republican Caucus.
I am proud of the work I have done throughout my career in the Illinois legislature and during my tenure as Leader. We were successful in securing additional funding for our public schools, helped create Invest in Kids (a tax-credit private school scholarship program for low- and middle-income students), stood up against income tax hikes that hurt working families, and worked tirelessly to improve our states crumbling infrastructure.
While I am proud of my record and the work our caucus has done, I believe it is the right time for a new Senate Republican Leader when the new 102nd General Assembly is sworn in next January.
When I was elected leader, I said that I would not pursue any other elected office during my leadership of the caucus. While my decision to not seek re-election as Senate Republican Leader may close this chapter, it by no means is the final word on my desire to serve our state and tackle those challenges.
Therefore, I am calling for a caucus to be held the first Tuesday when veto session convenes, as is our tradition, which is scheduled for November 17. At this meeting the caucus will begin the process of choosing a leader to present when the next General Assembly convenes.
…Adding… Subscribers know more, but this is currently true until one of them starts talking…
…Adding… Press release…
Senate President Don Harmon issued the following statement regarding Republican Leader Bill Brady’s announcement that he would not seek another term in the leadership post.
“Bill quietly and effectively advocated for the Republican senators and the communities they represent. He understood that conflict for nothing more than the sake of conflict is counterproductive.
While we approach challenges from different political perspectives, I have appreciated Bill’s focus on getting things done and his understanding and willingness to work with others to find success.
I wish Bill all the best.”
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* Tribune…
Most Illinois voters said they think the coronavirus pandemic is not at all under control in this country, according to a survey of voters conducted by The Associated Press. In addition, the majority of Illinois respondents said they disapproved of how President Donald Trump has handled the pandemic.
The pandemic has killed 9,878 Illinoisans and more than 230,000 people across the country. The AP VoteCast survey found Illinoisans were slightly more likely than the national average to believe the pandemic was not under control.
* AP…
AP VoteCast found that 31% of Illinois voters said the U.S. is on the right track and 69% of voters said it is headed in the wrong direction. […]
Overall, 14% of [Illinois] voters said the virus in the U.S. is completely or mostly under control, and 26% said it’s somewhat under control. Sixty percent of voters think the coronavirus is not at all under control in this country. […]
The coronavirus pandemic was top of mind for many voters in Illinois. Forty-six percent said it is the most important issue facing the country today.
Voters also considered the economy a major issue, with 24% saying it ranked at the top.
Also, 64 percent disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the virus, with 57 percent strongly disapproving.
*** UPDATE *** More from the Tribune on the AP poll…
The survey found 60% of Illinois voters approve of Pritzker’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 36% for Trump.
The poll also found that 63 percent believed the federal government should limit the virus’ spread even if it damages the economy. Just 37 percent said the federal government should limit damage to the economy, even if it increases the spread of the virus.
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*** LIVE *** Declared winners
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Keep in mind that most election authorities will report mail-in and early vote ballots first, then move on to precinct results. But some authorities, like suburban Cook, have a backlog of mailed ballots that may not be counted until very late tonight or even in the coming days. Also, I’m told there were a ton of provisional votes today, partly because people requested mail-in ballots and then didn’t fill them out and then voted on election day without bringing those ballots with them. Oops. That could take a while to deal with.
Anyway, here we go…
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* How’s it looking out there?…
* DuPage…
11-3-2020 3:30 PM
68% Voter Turnout
95,102 Voters Today
449,040 Voters Total (RECORD)
190,688 Early Voters*
163,251 Verified Mail Voters
654,394 Registered Voters
* Live coverage links…
* Sun-Times
* Tribune
* NBC 5
* CBS 2
* SJ-R
* The Southern Illinoisan
* BND
* QC Times
Heading out to vote. Talk to you later.
…Adding… Wait. I thought they closed early last night to prevent this from happening?…
Due to polling place changes/late openings, the Clerk’s office has received a court order to permit 17 suburban Cook County precincts to extend voting by one hour - to 8:00pm.
For other up-to-date election information, suburban voters should visit cookcountyclerk.com
Tinley Park Village Hall, 16250 Oak Park Avenue, Tinley Park (Bremen Precinct 59)
City Of Markham 16313 Kedzie Parkway, Markham (Bremen Precinct 21)
Lincoln Elementary School, 811 Chicago Avenue, Maywood (Proviso, Precinct 1)
Lincoln Elementary School, 811 Chicago Avenue, Maywood (Proviso, Precinct 2)
Ernest Kolb School, 9620 Normandy Ave, Oak Lawn (Worth, Precinct 21)
Alsip Heritage 1 Apartments, 11949 S. Ridgeway, Alsip (Worth, Precinct 97)
School District 157 Board Room, 1255 Superior Ave, Calumet City (Thornton, Precinct 38)
Roosevelt School, 111 W. 146th Street, Dolton (Thornton, Precinct 4)
Lincoln School 14100 Honore, Dixmoor (Thornton Precinct 30)
Jesse White Learning Academy 16910 Western Ave. Hazelcrest (Thornton Precinct 59)
Maya Angelou Elementary School 1548 Page Ave. Harvey (Thornton Precinct 102)
Holmes Elementary School 1600 Carse Ave. Harvey (Thornton Precinct 109)
School District 157 Board Room, 1255 Superior Ave, Calumet City (Thornton, Precinct 38)
Roosevelt School, 111 W. 146th Street, Dolton (Thornton, Precinct 4)
Central Township Medical Center, 4949 South Long Avenue, Chicago (Stickney, Precinct 10)
All Saints Lutheran Church, 13350 Lagrange Rd. Orland Park (Palos, Precinct 11)
Navajo Heights School 12401 S. Oak Park Ave., Palos Heights (Worth Precinct 7)
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder said today that he will defy the governor’s order and allow his city’s restaurants and bars to stay open with 25 percent indoor capacity. State mitigations forbid indoor dining and drinking because the IDPH region has surpassed an 8 percent positivity rate.
This same 25 percent strategy failed miserably in the Metro East when it was tried earlier this year, by the way. The mayor and county board chairman said they’ll be trying this policy out for a couple of weeks and then will reassess. It the county’s positivity rate is above 12 percent at that time, then the city and Sangamon County will drop its “phased approach.” Sangamon County’s average positivity rate is currently 9.8 percent.
The mayor brought law enforcement and politicians with him to the announcement today, but nobody with a medical degree attended. He said he would demand more mask-wearing and will mandate that house parties immediately end. Langfelder also claimed that Pritzker’s mitigations won’t work and wouldn’t pass the city council.
* WMAY…
Under the new plan, establishments will be limited to 25 percent capacity and must close no later than 11pm. In addition, customers who want indoor service will be required to fill out a questionnaire about their exposure to the virus. Establishments will have to keep those questionnaires and turn them over to the county on request.
* Gov. Pritzker was asked about the mayor’s announcement today…
The fact is that local officials who are not doing the right thing are the ones who are going to be responsible for the rates of infection going through the roof and our hospitals getting overrun and people dying if they don’t enforce the rules.
That is why those rules exist. And we didn’t make them up. Doctors all over the world have put forward studies and it’s very easy for you to find those, I’ve provided them to every official who has asked for them and frankly to every media outlet. We know that the places that are remaining open, they’re having large gatherings and defying these rules are, in fact, spreading locations. These are places that are amplifying the virus across the state and so you know when you’ve got double-digit positivity rates in your area, as is the case in Springfield, then the local officials need to take the laws that are on the books and the regulations that we’ve put forward and the orders that we’ve asked people to follow and enforce them locally.
Yikes.
The General Assembly’s veto session is scheduled to begin in Springfield two weeks from today. State law allows the governor to convene the GA outside Springfield “in case of pestilence or public danger.”
* The Question: Considering today’s decision by local officials, should the General Assembly cancel, postpone or move the veto session away from Springfield, or should it proceed as scheduled? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please…
online surveys
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About tonight
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Scott Kennedy of Illinois Election Data and I spoke the other day about what we are going to do about election night. Scott has been supplying live results to us for years, but he said because of all the early and mail vote, he didn’t think it would be useful. I agreed.
I’ll have links to live election results so you can follow all the action and I’ll have a post that declares winners whenever possible.
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Election day oddities and ends
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sigh…
This afternoon at a polling place in Wheaton, Sean Casten doubled down on his total disdain for anyone who disagrees with him.
In a conversation with voters, Casten states, “If I win by less than ten, that says that 45% of the district is racist homophobes.” Listen to the audio here.
Ives campaign spokeswoman, Kathleen Murphy: “Sean Casten doesn’t care to understand your disagreements with him. He just thinks you are a low-life if you don’t think like he does.
“This isn’t how we come back together. It isn’t who the Sixth District is. But it is who Sean Casten is. And we are confident that voters are rejecting his toxic, divisive candidacy as we speak.”
* Imagine being so committed to opposing face coverings that you pay for election-day robocalls…
[Hat tip: This guy]
* BND…
In Bond County, voters are considering a referendum about whether downstate Illinois should kick Chicago out of Illinois to form its own, 51st state.
The referendum, which is non-binding, is appearing on the ballot due to the grassroots efforts of local citizens who collected about 600 signatures on a petition.
* I’ve been getting press releases from this PR firm for months, but this is the first time I thought about posting one of them…
Hi - Cities across America are boarding up and bracing for civil unrest and/or celebrations tonight. People are expected to spill out into the streets regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election. A popular celebration tactic of years past (most notably for the Philadelphia Eagles when they won the Super Bowl in 2018) is for people to climb street poles.
To deter people from doing so and ensure their safety, ImLive, an adult company, is offering to deploy 220 gallons of lube to New York City and Los Angeles. The lube can be used to grease up dry street poles, thus making it nearly impossible for people to scale them.
Check out a SFW image here - https://www.dropbox.com/sh/esqgc8onar2v6le/AABgyE0cOngOiobFGxyIMfiha?dl=0
I’ve also included a quote from ImLive’s VP of Business Adrian Stoneman –
“We wanted to extend a helping hand and ensure people’s safety while they took to the streets tonight and want to make sure no one is climbing street poles and inevitably getting hurt. To thwart any attempts at scaling these erect structures, we would love to deploy our vats of lube to New York City and Los Angeles so that they can lube their dry poles. We have (4) 55 gallon drums of lube read to go. We hope these cities take us up on our generous offer,” said Adrian Stoneman, Vice President of Business, ImLive.
To be clear, we are offering (4) 55 gallon barrels = 220 gallons of lube in total.
As usual, fly-over country is excluded from the largesse.
* Sigh…
* Musical interlude…
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* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 6,516 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 68 additional deaths.
Adams County: 1 female 90s
Clay County: 1 female 90s
Clinton County: 1 female 90s
Coles County: 1 female 90s, 1 male 90s
Cook County: 2 males 50s, 1 male 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s, 1 male 80s, 1 male 90s
DuPage County: 1 male 60s, 1 male 90s
Effingham County: 1 male 70s
Franklin County: 1 male 80s
Grundy County: 1 male 70s
Kane County: 2 females 70s, 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s
Knox County: 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 female 80s
LaSalle County: 1 female 100+
Lee County: 1 male 60s, 1 male 80s
Macon County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s, 2 females 90s
Madison County: 3 males 70s, 1 male 90s
Marshall County: 1 female 80s
Mason County: 1 female 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 80s
Mercer County: 1 male 80s
Peoria County: 3 females 80s, 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s, 1 male 90s
Shelby County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 80s
St. Clair County: 1 male 60s, 2 males 80s, 1 male 90s
Stephenson County: 1 male 80s
Tazewell County: 1 female 90s
Warren County: 1 female 60s
Whiteside County: 1 female 90s
Will County: 1 female 50s, 1 female 100+
Williamson County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s
Winnebago County: 1 male 70s, 3 females 80s, 3 males 80s, 1 female 100+
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 430,018 cases, including 9,878 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 82,435 specimens for a total 7,958,856. As of last night, 3,594 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 755 patients were in the ICU and 326 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 27 – November 2 is 8.2%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 27, 2020 – November 2, 2020 is 9.9%.
Case positivity and test positivity rate are both relevant and offer insight into the bigger COVID-19 picture. Case positivity helps us understand whether changes in the number of confirmed cases is due to more testing or due to more infections. Whereas, test positivity accounts for repeated testing and helps us understand how the virus is spreading in the population over time.
*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered. For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.
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* Your observations so far today? Any hijinks?
* Statewide…
The Illinois State Board of Elections has updated its early voting totals, according to Illinois Election Data.
About 2.3 million votes by mail were requested and about 1.8 million have been returned, leaving 521,045 that are outstanding for a return rate of 78 percent.
Nearly 3.8 million voted early all together in Illinois.
* Chicago…
Chicago Board of Elections spokesman Jim Allen said 29,500 ballots were cast in the first hour of voting Tuesday. As of just before 11 a.m., 916,423 ballots had been cast either in-person or by mail.
Though some polling locations did report delayed openings, Allen said none will require precincts to remain open late.
While several issues remain under investigation from the board, Allen did provide some details on a few reported incidents in the. city.
Several voters reported that sharpies were bleeding through ballots, but Allen said one bleed-through on the front will not hit a target on the back. He acknowledged the need for some scanners to be replaced and the occasional equipment issue to be fixed.
…Adding… I’m hearing now from an attorney involved in this that the Sharpie pens are actually spoiling some ballots. Heckuva job, Chicago Board of Elections.
*** UPDATE 1 *** Some are half-jokingly calling this “Sharpiegate.” It’s not a problem everywhere, but it is causing issues in some areas when the markings bleed through to the back. Making matters worse is that, as always, every judge is handling things differently, and that’s creating confusion.
*** UPDATE 2 *** This is easier said than done…
[ *** End Of Updates *** ]
* Suburban Cook…
According to officials, 87,000 voters have cast a ballot today in suburban Cook County. Already, 430,000 mail-in ballots have returned in suburban Cook County.
* DuPage County as of noon…
11-3-2020 NOON
65% Voter Turnout
70,509 Voters Today
424,398 Voters Total
190,688 Early Voters*
163,201 Verified Mail Voters
652,895 Registered Voters
Early Voting Location Voters
2008 – 96,369
2012 – 78,561
2016 – 108,902
2018 – 89,665
2020 – 190,688* (9-24-2020 – 11-2-2020)
*In previous elections, early voting location voter statistics did not include “in-person absentee”.
Vote by Mail Applicants
2016 – 32,126
2018 – 42,338
2020 – 212,816
Historic General Election Voter Turnout
2016 Turnout – 70.6% Ballots Cast – 434,050 Registered Voters – 614,752
2012 Turnout – 71.4% Ballots Cast – 400,601 Registered Voters – 560,718
2008 Turnout – 76.3% Ballots Cast – 420,397 Registered Voters – 551,280
2004 Turnout – 76.1% Ballots Cast – 404,117 Registered Voters – 530,732
2000 Turnout – 76.5% Ballots Cast – 369,300 Registered Voters – 482,789
Some good stuff in those links, so check ‘em out.
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Could it be… Satan?
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Illinois Review…
Congressman Sean Casten appeared to think flashing “666″ (the Biblical number referring to the Anti-Christ) Tuesday along with some folks in a parking lot outside a polling place.
Maybe self-proclaimed atheists like Casten think that’s funny?
Um, I dunno, maybe it’s because Casten represents the 6th Congressional District?…
[Headline explained here.]
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* Rather than simply repeating the local mayor’s incendiary words, the SJ-R is finally starting to talk to medical professionals…
Springfield and Sangamon County officials told bar and restaurant owners to operate as they had been through the weekend. Officials are set to announce Tuesday how they plan to implement Pritzker’s mitigation order.
But local health officials are sounding the alarm. Dr. Raj Govindaiah, chief medical officer for Memorial Health System, said that the virus is “spreading so rapidly right now” that mitigations will help, but it would likely be at least two to three weeks before rates start trending down under the best circumstances.
“The surge is in our community right now,” Govindaiah said. “And instead of asking me what I’m doing, I’m going to ask the community, what is it doing? Because I can only do so much. I cannot create enough hospital beds for everyone in central Illinois if they all get sick at the same time.”
Govindaiah said Memorial currently has the highest number of COVID-19 patients it has had at any point during the pandemic, approaching 100 patients. Last month, it was 60. The month before, 30. […]
Govindaiah said mitigation measures imposed by Pritzker would be effective if people followed them, noting that the highest risk exposures occur when people are eating and drinking in close proximity for prolonged periods of time.
* The message might be getting through…
Sangamon County Sheriff Jack Campbell said he’s been in constant communication with Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder, Springfield Police, and the Sangamon County Department of Public Health for guidance on enforcement so they can all be on the same page.
Campbell said he wants to do what safe for community, but also remain fair to business owners.
“We have the ability to warn people if they’re not socially distancing or they don’t have their mask on,” Campbell said. “We have the ability to cite them if there is a clear violation. So, we will continue to use that type of discretion when it comes to enforcement.”
Langfelder’s office released a statement, stating a joint press briefing will take place on Tuesday afternoon at the Sangamon County Department of Public Health.
Springfield is a massive regional medical center. The mayor has often said he wants to attract more health care-related businesses. That’s a great idea. But COVID denialism ain’t the way to do it.
* Winnebago County’s public health officials are spitting into the wind right now. The county’s positivity rate is 14.9 percent, but too many area leaders seem wholly unconcerned…
One of the most intense election cycles in recent memory will come to a head Tuesday night, and few things would feel better than to celebrate political success — or mourn a defeat — with family and friends.
Don’t do it.
That’s the advice from Winnebago County Health Department Administrator Sandra Martell and Mayor Tom McNamara. […]
Once such event was planned for Monday night at Fozzy’s Bar & Grill, which announced on its Facebook page that it would host state Rep. John Cabello’s election eve rally, along with Sheriff Gary Caruana, Loves Park Mayor Greg Jury and state Sen. Dave Syverson. Fozzy’s offered free food to the first 100 people in the door. […]
Contacted Monday, Cabello expressed little concern about the transmission of COVID-19.
Fozzy’s Bar & Grill was issued its “4th Order of Closure” on October 28th. And yet it’s still open and defiant because the local authorities won’t cooperate with public health officials. Also, that wasn’t just free food, it was a free buffet. A buffet. In a pandemic. Nothing to see here. Move along.
* East Peoria’s mayor gets some blowback…
The Tazewell County Health Department and East Peoria officials are at odds over Gov. JB Pritzker’s order for tighter COVID-19 restrictions in Region 2, which includes the Tri-County Area.
Shortly after the governor issued the order on Sunday, East Peoria Mayor John Kahl said in a Facebook post that the city will not be enforcing those orders. On Monday, the Tazewell County Health Department posted a scathing reply, via its own Facebook page.
“While we appreciate an elected official can do as he/she sees fit for their community, no official, including Mayor Kahl, has had a recent conversation with TCHD or been given permission to speak for the health department on this developing issue. … Denying that COVID-19 is real, disregarding the mitigations and ignoring strong public health guidance for safety only makes COVID worsen in our community and does nothing to get us back to normal or slow infection in our community,” the post read.
* Peoria’s mayor urged caution…
On Monday, Peoria Mayor Jim Ardis said he had fielded a slew of emails suggesting he also thumb his nose at Pritzker.
“Some of those emails said I should tell the governor to go and pound salt,” Ardis said. “And those were the nice ones.”
But Ardis said he not only did not have the legal standing to shrug off the order, but he also did not want to prod any Peoria businesses into putting themselves at risk.
“No mayor in the state has the authority to override the governor’s executive order unless the court decides otherwise,” he said. “We shouldn’t give businesses a false sense of security that the state won’t come in and enforce the governor’s (executive order) and potentially revoke their liquor and gaming licenses.”
* Park Ridge is cracking down…
Park Ridge restaurants that defy the governor’s indoor dining ban and continue to serve customers inside are being fined daily, a city official said.
Between Thursday and Sunday, the city issued three restaurants a total of $1,750 in fines for continued non-compliance with the governor’s order, said Jim Brown, director of community preservation and development.
The restaurants were fined $250 for the first violation and $500 for subsequent violations, Brown said.
Daily fines of $500 “will continue as long as they remain open,” the director said, adding that the city is also exploring other options, such reporting the establishments to the county and state health departments or recommending a suspension of their liquor licenses.
“No one is happy about enforcing this,” Mayor Marty Maloney said during a virtual meeting of the Park Ridge City Council Monday. “We’re all in this situation, playing the hand we’re dealt.”
* Meanwhile…
Also raising concerns is Lincoln Mayor Tracy Welch, who in a Facebook post said he’s “adamant that our bars and restaurants cannot withstand another lengthy shutdown and I will do everything in my power to see that they survive.”
He said there have been discussions with the police chief and the city “will not take any action against a business that chooses to remain open unless there is a judicial order.”
“I will not revoke or suspend the liquor license for any establishment that chooses to remain open and serve alcohol,” he said.
If people just worked the program, there would be no need for a lengthy cessation of indoor service. The resisters are making it worse for everyone else.
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Mid-morning election day precinct reports
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Seeing anything interesting? Hearing about any problems? Let us know. Bored and looking for something to do? Go take a ride and look around and report back. Also, how’s the weather by you? Absolutely gorgeous here in Springfield.
…Adding… From the DuPage County Clerk as of 9:30 this morning…
DuPage County General Election
11-3-2020 9:30 AM
61% Voter Turnout
43,791 Voters Today
397,649 Voters Total
190,689 Early Voters*
163,169 Verified Mail Voters
651,879 Registered Voters
Early Voting Location Voters
2008 – 96,369
2012 – 78,561
2016 – 108,902
2018 – 89,665
2020 – 190,689* (9-24-2020 – 11-2-2020)
*In previous elections, early voting location voter statistics did not include “in-person absentee”.
Vote by Mail Applicants
2016 – 32,126
2018 – 42,338
2020 – 212,816
Historic General Election Voter Turnout
2016 Turnout – 70.6% Ballots Cast – 434,050 Registered Voters – 614,752
2012 Turnout – 71.4% Ballots Cast – 400,601 Registered Voters – 560,718
2008 Turnout – 76.3% Ballots Cast – 420,397 Registered Voters – 551,280
2004 Turnout – 76.1% Ballots Cast – 404,117 Registered Voters – 530,732
2000 Turnout – 76.5% Ballots Cast – 369,300 Registered Voters – 482,789
…Adding… Here are links to live coverage updates from Illinois media outlets. If you know of others, mention them in comments and I’ll add links as we go along…
* Sun-Times
* Tribune
* NBC 5
* CBS 2
* SJ-R
* The Southern Illinoisan
* BND
* QC Times
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Do better
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* If a Republican county clerk in, say, Georgia, did this, we’d likely see it in the national news…
Poll workers at some Cook County sites sent voters who were still in line about 7 p.m. home, an election official said.
Cook County Clerk Karen Yarbrough’s election offices turned away voters who were still in line at 7 p.m. on Monday, the clerk’s spokeswoman Sally Daly said. […]
“The Cook County Election Judge Manual itself states that anyone in line when early voting ends for the day has the right to cast their ballot and must be allowed to vote,” Ami Gandhi, the senior counsel for the Chicago Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights, said in a statement. ” But tonight, voters came out the cold and waited for hours to cast their ballots, only to be turned away without explanation. That needless barrier undoubtedly disenfranchised Cook County voters.”
* Long lines in the southern states are deemed to be vote suppression. Here? Just part of life…
Polls open at 6 a.m. Tuesday and close at 7 p.m. Long lines? Don’t fret: If you’re in line at 7 p.m., you are entitled to vote.
My point is not that the southern states don’t have very real voter suppression issues, of course. They most certainly do. My point is that election officials (and many in the media) up here cheerily point to long lines while marveling about all the wonderful enthusiasm and the hardiness of our people, when most of those long lines, delays and abrupt closures could and should be prevented. For example…
If Fulton County can do it, so can we.
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An election day unlike any other
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* NBC 5…
With the election nearing, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker warned voters of “misinformation” that could be posted to social media, urging state residents to consult reputable sources for information in the days ahead.
The governor warned residents from getting their information on social media networks like Facebook and Twitter in the coming days, and to instead consult local election authorities and reputable news outlets for the latest updates on election results. […]
As those votes are counted, Pritzker urged voters to be patient and to be skeptical of claims made on social media, suggesting that voters could potentially stay off of those platforms in the coming days.
“Look at a variety of news outlets if you’d like, but be wary of claims you see on social media,” he said. “So check before you repost anything, or better yet, you may want to take the next few days off from social media. Facebook and Twitter will still be there in the morning.”
* Also…
Observers say foreign enemies may seek to agitate an already divided electorate. Because many people have voted by mail, presidential election results aren’t expected to be completely totalled Tuesday night.
Pritzker said hostile agents posing as Americans could produce false information they hope will be shared over social-media platforms.
“They would like nothing more than to promote conspiracy theories and sow discontent,” the governor said Monday, as he gave his daily coronavirus briefing.
* In other news…
Meanwhile, Gov. J.B. Pritzker said that National Guard troops staging at McCormick Place on Monday would be on standby if needed.
”Out of an abundance of caution, we’ve made sure that our National Guard is simply in a state of readiness,” Pritzker said.
“We want to make sure that the cities, counties that call upon us for help from the state of Illinois that we have those resources available to them … we simply have them at a state of readiness in case they are asked to help.”
The city’s Office of Emergency Management and Communications on Monday said in a tweet: “The City has not made any calls to deploy the National Guard in Chicago. Similar to past emergency preparedness plans, the State has stationed personnel at McCormick Place to be ready to respond if needed, however, there are currently no plans for them to be deployed.”
And the National Guard on Monday also tweeted: “Obviously, people can see Illinois National Guard trucks and troops moving. This is to be ready to respond if needed, but we have not been given any missions. We, along with most other Illinoisans and Americans, hope we are not needed.”
* And…
As Election Day nears, Illinois State Police has been taking steps to ensure public safety during and after the election.
Director Brendan Kelly said along with the state Department of Homeland Security and the Illinois National Guard, ISP has been planning for months plans to safeguard the election and keep Illinois communities safe during the aftermath.
“The Illinois State Police will support state, local and federal partners as needed with threats to public officials, bomb threats, suspicious packages and other serious criminal investigations that could be related to elections,” Kelly said.
Kelly said state police have been taking part in readiness exercises with state and local partners. Terrorism intelligence is monitoring possible issues.
“Since its inception, the Statewide Terrorism and Intelligence Center, or STIC, has supported elected officials with information sharing and analysis of security events,” Kelly said. “In collaboration with our federal partners, STIC serves as a hub for sharing election-related matters.”
Kelly said state police will have high-visibility patrols during the election period to help local law enforcement with any issues at polling places. He said the state agency will provide extra personnel if needed.
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* Gov. Pritzker was asked yet again yesterday whether he was considering another stay at home order…
We’re not currently looking at a stay at home order. I mean, obviously, that’s something that lurks in the background. You know, if we believe that these tiered mitigations ultimately are ineffective. If people choose not to wear masks and if the spread of the virus continues unabated, and that kind of community spread, we would obviously have to consider more significant mitigations.
Earlier, Pritzker spoke about the different levels of IDPH mitigation. Click here to see the three state tiers.
* Later, Amy Jacobson of WIND said that “a pretty reliable source told us that the plan is to move the whole state back to Phase 3 after the election.” She asked if that was true…
That’s not a plan. No. Obviously, that’s an option, I guess. But whatever you heard is not accurate. I have not had any discussions about that.
I’m so old I remember when the prevailing conspiracy theory was this would all somehow disappear after the election.
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* Yvette Shields at the Bond Buyer outlines the stakes if the “Fair Tax” fails at the ballot or if it passes…
Some market participants have warned that the state’s general obligation bond ratings — all at the lowest notch above speculative grade, with negative outlooks — will fall to junk if the amendment fails.
“It is hard to handicap the probability of Illinois getting downgraded before the end of the year since a lot will depend upon the approval of Illinois’s progressive tax ballot measure” as well as the outcome of the presidential race and the contest for control of the U.S. Senate contests, Vikram Rai, head of Citi’s municipal strategy group, wrote in a Municipal Weekly report in October.
“We expect the progressive tax ballot measure to be approved by voters, but if it doesn’t, we believe a downgrade is almost guaranteed,” Citi said. “If the progressive tax ballot measure passes but Republicans retain control of the White House and Senate, the outlook for downgrade is nebulous, essentially a toss-up.”
If the progressive ballot measure passes and Democrats take over the White House and the Senate, Illinois may be able to avoid a downgrade based on the expectation of more generous fiscal aid flowing from the federal government.
Citi estimates a 50 basis point widening in Illinois spreads after the first rating agency junks the state, with subsequent agency actions not having an impact.
Thoughts?
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Early morning election day precinct reports
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* What are you seeing out there? You can also tell us what you’ve been seeing the past few days at early voting sites. Don’t forget to give us an idea where you are, when you were there, etc. Thanks.
* Related…
* Tip lines allow voters to report intimidation, extremism at the polls: “We’ve seen online organizing activities of extremists turn into real life violence,” said David Goldenberg, executive director of the Anti-Defamation League’s Midwest region. “And that’s why all of us need to take this seriously.”
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* Illinois State Board of Elections…
With record-setting vote-by-mail volume in the 2020 general election, the Illinois State Board of Elections advises media and voters to be aware that unofficial vote totals reported on election night may change significantly in the two weeks to follow.
As of Nov. 2, Illinois’ 108 local election authorities reported up to 587,000 mail ballots that had not yet been returned by voters. While some of these ballots will arrive in time to be processed and included in election night reporting, many are likely to arrive after Election Day and be added to unofficial totals. Illinois allows ballots that are postmarked no later than Election Day to arrive and be counted for two weeks afterward, so totals could change through Nov. 17.
The Illinois State Board of Elections will regularly update the statewide totals for mail ballots on its website, but does not report any election results until it certifies the vote on Dec. 4. Unofficial results before certification may be obtained from local election authorities.
The following background information may be useful to news media covering election results in the two weeks to come:
• As of Nov.2, Illinois election authorities had sent 2.35 million ballots to voters and 1.76 million of those ballots had been returned by voters. (The complete report, including totals from individual election authorities, is attached following this release.)
• With 1.83 million in-person early votes cast as of Nov. 2, Illinois had cast nearly 3.6 million votes before Election Day.
• In 2016, voters cast 370,740 votes by mail and 1,520,694 in-person early votes, for a total of 1,891,434 votes cast before election day.
• Illinois has more than 8.3 million registered voters for the 2020 general election, which is an all- time record. Unofficial pre-election reports indicate that 43 percent of registered voters have already voted.
• The constitutional amendment on this year’s ballot can pass if it receives 60 percent approval from voters who vote on the question or a simple majority of affirmative votes among all ballots cast in the election. Because of this formula, the fate of the amendment may not be known on election night even when accounting for mail ballots not yet returned.
• As mail ballots arrive in the days after Nov. 3, it is likely that close races may see leads change as results are reported. Reporters should check with local election authorities for updated vote counts and make readers, viewers and listeners aware of why these numbers are changing.
• The certification schedule after Election Day is as follows:
o Nov.17:Local election authorities must complete counting of mail and provisional ballots
o Nov. 24: Local election authorities must transmit results to the State Board of Elections
o Dec. 4: State Board of Elections certifies the vote and publishes official results
• From 1976-2016, turnout in presidential elections in Illinois has averaged 73 percent. If statewide turnout for this election matches 2016’s 70.56 percent, 5.87 million votes will be cast.
• Voters needing assistance locating polling places or with other voting-related questions or concerns on Election Day can call the State Board of Elections at (217) 782-4141 or (312) 814- 6440. The Board of Elections website, elections.il.gov, will feature a special landing page for voter assistance beginning at midnight on Nov. 3.
The attachment is here.
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Everyone has their own priorities
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From today’s press conference…
Q: Governor, can I just ask one more question? It’s about the American flag, it’s about the American flag because there’s a man who’s a World War II vet, he’s also a Korean War vet, he wants to know why the flag is still at half-staff. I know you ordered all the municipalities to put it to half-staff in March. It’s been eight months now. When can we see it at full-staff? [crosstalk about something to do with election day]
A: We’ve lost more than three 9/11’s in nine months. More than three 9/11’s. More than 9,700 people have passed away. We are losing dozens of people every single day. So, yes, I think during this pandemic, I think until we get through this pandemic, I think it’s the right thing to do to recognize the terrible loss that so many people, who can’t even go to a funeral sometimes for a relative or a friend, this is one way that we can honor all of them.
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COVID-19 roundup
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Click here for a PowerPoint presentation that the governor intends to talk about today.
* Hal Dardick at the Tribune…
As Illinois finally nears its goal of employing 3,800 people to track down and warn the contacts of people infected with COVID-19, experts say that number may no longer be sufficient to help control the virus.
That’s because contact tracing — which aims to reduce disease spread by identifying and isolating people who could be infectious — works best when infection rates are relatively low. The state is seeing record numbers of daily confirmed cases.
“Contact tracing is not a silver bullet, and it can be overwhelmed very quickly with an expanding epidemic, because cases will appear and transmission will occur much more quickly than a health department can hire contact tracers,” said Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “So, there is kind of a threshold at which contact tracing becomes much less effective.
“And so, what we need to do in those cases is use other interventions like enforcing mask use and physical distancing and shutting down indoor areas.”
Watson is part of a team at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and National Public Radio that has tracked the status of contact tracing in the United States. They concluded in a recent report that once a state is logging more than 10 new COVID-19 cases daily for every 100,000 residents, contact tracers become overwhelmed.
Illinois has quadruple that number of new cases per 100K residents.
* Beware antigen test results…
As rapid tests are becoming more widely available, delivering results in minutes in doctor’s offices, nursing homes, schools and even the White House, officials warn of a significant undercount, blurring the spread.
Officials say that antigen tests, which are faster than polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests but less able to detect low levels of the virus, are an important tool for limiting the spread. But they caution that with inconsistent public reporting, the case undercount may worsen.
“We want to be sure that we’re not now saying, ‘there’s no disease,’ when there is lots of disease. All that’s happened is that the science with which we identify it has evolved,” said Janet Hamilton, the executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, the group that helps the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention define cases of the coronavirus.
* Tribune live blog headlines…
Chicago’s jazz clubs struggle to stay afloat
National Guard arriving Monday at some Indiana nursing homes hard hit by COVID-19 cases
COVID-19 restrictions take effect in east-central Illinois
Chicago health officials urge people to get flu shots
As the pandemic wears on, more working moms are forced to quit their jobs, and the impact of the ‘shecession’ could be long-lasting
* Sun-Times live blog headlines…
Surging COVID-19 numbers spark Election Day concerns for polling places
COVID-19 recruiting tips for high school basketball players
Hospitals strain to find new nurses as COVID-19 rates rise
10 more chief judge’s employees test positive for the coronavirus, including 7 at juvenile detention building
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A look ahead
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I think Dan Vock is mostly right about what would happen if House Speaker Michael Madigan picks up a significant number of seats tomorrow…
It could make it easier for Democrats to legislate in the upcoming session. The COVID-19 pandemic has strained Illinois’s already precarious financial situation, and keeping the budget in the black next year could require unpopular program cuts or even tax hikes. In the past, Madigan has often sought Republican votes for political cover when passing politically contentious measures. But Republicans blame Madigan and Democrats for Illinois’s troubles already, and more Democrats in the House would give GOP lawmakers less leverage in those negotiations.
Politically, adding more Democrats in the suburbs could shore up the party’s strength at a time when Democrats have been losing seats outside of the Chicago metro area.
More Democrats in the House would give Madigan a freer hand when it comes time next year to redraw the legislative district lines for the next decade. There is widespread concern among Democrats that this year’s Census will undercount the number of residents who are Black, Hispanic, immigrants, low-income or otherwise hard to reach. If so, it would sap Democrats’ strength in legislative bodies like the Illinois House. But if Madigan’s Democrats have more territory to work with, they can cede some seats while still holding a commanding majority.
Adding Democrats to the Illinois House would also give Madigan an easier path to round up the 60 votes he needs to continue as speaker of the House. Madigan has been speaker, except for a two-year stint in the 1990s, since 1983, and it seems unlikely that he would lose that post soon. But eight House Democrats have already called for him to resign his leadership post, and another seven have said he should step down if the allegations in the ComEd corruption investigation are true. If all of them defected, Madigan presumably would only have 59 votes for speaker. Adding more Democrats to the chamber would give him more possible votes to pick up.
And this is most certainly correct…
Finally, Springfield insiders speculate that weakening the Republican caucus could also be a form of political payback by the speaker, after Republican Leader Jim Durkin initiated a process to try to remove Madigan from the House chamber over the allegations in the ComEd investigation. The power company admitted in federal court that it arranged for jobs, contracts and payoffs to people in Madigan’s circle in order to gain favor with the speaker. But federal prosecutors have not charged Madigan with a crime.
But a question that isn’t often asked is: What happens if Madigan’s gains are on the “Meh” side?
Discuss.
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This reminds me of a story…
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* One day when I was a kid, my mom dropped her (then) four sons off at Sunday school and dispatched herself to a local diner to quietly sip a cup of coffee before church.
All of a sudden, in walks her four boys who proceeded to noisily join her at her table, unceremoniously ending her rare and precious moment to herself. Unbeknownst to all of us, the time had rolled back an hour the night before and Sunday school hadn’t yet begun. So, rather than find something else to do, we decided to go hang out with our beloved mother. Thankfully, my mom has a great sense of humor and we all laughed about the mistake. No blood, no foul.
* I bring this up because I yet again forgot to change the timestamp on the blog over the weekend. I can’t really adjust it now because doing so will mess up comments, so I’ll get to it tonight.
Sorry, but it kinda runs in the family.
Also, I love you, Mom. I remember that day more than any Sunday school class I ever attended. Thanks for being you.
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* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 6,222 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 20 additional deaths.
Champaign County: 1 male 60s
Cook County: 1 female 50s, 1 female 60s, 1 male 60s, 2 females 70s, 2 males 70s, 2 males 80s, 1 female 0ver 100
DuPage County: 1 male 80s
Iroquois County: 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 male 80s
Mason County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 90s
Monroe County: 1 female 90s, 1 female over 100
Piatt County: 1 female 60s
Will County: 1 male 90s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 423,502 cases, including 9,810 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 68,118 specimens for a total 7,876,421. As of last night, 3,371 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 722 patients were in the ICU and 298 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 26 – November 1 is 8.1%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 26, 2020 – November 1, 2020 is 9.7%.
Case positivity and test positivity rate are both relevant and offer insight into the bigger COVID-19 picture. Case positivity helps us understand whether changes in the number of confirmed cases is due to more testing or due to more infections. Whereas, test positivity accounts for repeated testing and helps us understand how the virus is spreading in the population over time.
*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered. For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.
* Sunday…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 6,980 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 35 additional deaths.
Alexander County: 1 female 70s
Bureau County: 1 female 90s
Cook County: 4 females 70s, 4 males 70s, 1 female 80s, 2 males 80s, 1 female 90s, 2 males 90s, 1 male over 100
DuPage County: 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
Henry County: 1 male 60s, 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 female 70s, 1 female 90s
Macon County: 1 male 50s, 1 female 80s
Madison County: 1 male 70s
Montgomery County: 1 female 90s
Peoria County: 1 male 80s
Pike County: 1 male 90s
Sangamon County: 1 female 90s
Will County: 1 male 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s
Woodford County: 2 females 80s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 417,280 cases, including 9,792 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 78,458 specimens for a total 7,808,303. As of last night, 3,294 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 692 patients were in the ICU and 284 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 25 – October 31 is 8.0%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 25, 2020 – October 31, 2020 is 9.4%.
* Saturday…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 7,899 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 46 additional deaths.
Adams County: 1 male 70s
Boone County: 1 male 60s
Bureau County: 1 male 80s
Carroll County: 1 male 80s
Cook County: 1 female 40s, 1 female 50s, 2 females 60s, 3 males 60s, 1 female 70s, 5 males 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s, 1 female 100+
DuPage County: 1 female 80s
Kane County: 1 male 50s, 1 male 70s, 2 females 80s, 1 female 90s
Lake County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 90s
LaSalle County: 1 female 60s
Macon County: 1 male 90s
Madison County: 1 female 80s
Marion County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s
Mason County: 1 male 80s, 1 female 100+
McLean County: 1 female 80s
Monroe County: 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s
Sangamon County: 1 female 80s
Vermilion County: 1 female 60s
Wayne County: 1 female 90s
Whiteside County: 1 female 70s
Will County: 1 female 60s, 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s
Winnebago County: 1 male 70s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 410,300 cases, including 9,757 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 92,636 specimens for a total 7,729,845. As of last night, 3,228 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 680 patients were in the ICU and 290 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 24 – October 30 is 7.5%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 24, 2020 – October 30, 2020 is 9.0%.
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* Tribune…
An hourlong virtual rally in support of a proposed state constitutional amendment to change Illinois’ income tax system to a graduated-rate tax was sidetracked Friday night by Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle delivering a lengthy pitch for State’s Attorney Kim Foxx’s reelection and for voters to reject two judges up for retention.
She only spoke about Foxx for like two minutes.
* Hannah Meisel…
In the dueling campaigns for and against Gov. JB Pritzker’s signature plan to implement a graduated income tax structure in Illinois are the echoes of past attempts at tax reform.
The players have changed and the policy proposals are different, but what remains constant are both Illinois’ underlying structural revenue imbalance and the element of mistrust of Springfield politicians.
The Nov. 3 vote to amend Illinois’ constitution and allow for a graduated income tax — instead of the flat income tax structure the state has had since 1969 — is not just the culmination of Pritzker’s three-year-long campaign for the change he vowed as a gubernatorial candidate, but also the reverberation of decades of fiscal policy and messaging.
Trips back to the 1990s, the 1970s and the 1930s may be instructive.
It’s a really good piece (of course), so go take a look. You might learn something.
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Illinois recovery barely perceptible
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Institute of Government and Public Affairs…
The U of I Flash Index in October continued its slow, steady recovery from the low point of the post-COVID-19 period. The October index went up to 95.6 from its 95.1 level in September, but the economy is still well below its strength prior to the pandemic.
The impact of the recent resurgence of the virus is not captured in the October data. “The October Flash Index obviously comes at the cusp of potential changes related to the election and the virus. We could see continued, gradual improvement, or another drop in the index, depending on the availability of a vaccine or the possibility of further mandated business closures,” said University of Illinois economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the monthly index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “The short-term impact of the election will likely be less dramatic than many people believe since the economy has a momentum that is difficult to change.”
The Illinois unemployment rate continued its decline from 11.0 percent to 10.2 percent over the last month, but it is still 2.3 percentage points above the national level, but 6.2 percentage points below its April highpoint. After adjusting for inflation, sales and corporate tax receipts were up from the same month last year while individual income tax receipts were down slightly, continuing the pattern of last month. See the full Flash Index Archive.
The Flash Index is normally a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through October 31, 2020. Ad hoc adjustments have been made to deal with the timing of the tax receipts resulting from state and Federal changes in payment dates beginning in March.
Accompanying graph…
The Illinois Flash Index was stuck in the mid 90s for about two years after the 9/11 attacks. That stretch pretty much killed all the budget progress made during the previous decade and we haven’t recovered since.
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* From Saturday’s Decatur Herald & Review…
HSHS St. Mary’s Hospital and Decatur Memorial Hospital have suspended visitors for inpatient care effective Saturday due to the high number of COVID-19 cases throughout Central Illinois.
“COVID-19 is spreading throughout our community. Many people may have COVID-19, and could be contagious before they are showing symptoms,” said Dr. Raj Govindaiah, chief medical officer of Memorial Health System. “Our mission is to improve the health of the people and communities we serve, and this policy will allow us to do that.”
Exceptions will be allowed with approval in areas such as the emergency department, obstetrics, pediatrics, certain outpatient procedures and surgeries, as well as for those who may be in end-of-life care or to support a patient with an intellectual disability.
* Today’s Decatur Herald & Review…
Everyone’s East End Grill restaurant parked within the confines of Decatur Airport is now taxiing to an enviable position: it can cheerfully ignore Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s orders to shutdown indoor dining service starting Monday.
That’s because the new, stricter shut down rules for this region aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19 don’t apply to eateries that are deemed part of essential businesses, like airports. […]
He got no arguments from his Sunday morning, post-church dining crowd. Cyndi Haynes and her husband Butch were both enjoying fried breakfasts they said tasted as good as the food’s looks and aroma suggested, and were also deeply satisfied with the attitude of their host.
The construct of that restaurant story is weird. The business has an exemption because of its location, so it doesn’t have to “ignore” anything except, of course, the growing problem at the town’s hospitals.
Anyway, maybe also send that reporter over to a hospital commissary to see what the docs have to say?
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* SJ-R…
Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder has called for an emergency city council meeting Wednesday evening to discuss COVID-19 and the state mitigation measures that went into effect Sunday, which include the suspension of indoor dining and bar service. […]
But Langfelder — worried about the impact the shutdown could have on local restaurants — has been openly critical of the added restrictions. He has advocated in recent weeks for a “stair-step” approach that would allow indoor dining to remain open during mitigations. […]
Twenty-two restaurant owners from the county filed a lawsuit Friday in Sangamon County Circuit Court against Gov. JB Pritzker seeking relief from the order.
Others followed the governor’s order and closed for indoor service. And a new Facebook group called “Support Responsible Dining in Springfield IL” was created on Sunday to encourage people to support the businesses following Pritzker’s order. The page already has more than 300 likes as of Monday morning.
I went over this with subscribers earlier today, so I’ll just let that stand. Suffice to say that a Sangamon County judge already dealt with this issue back in May. The full list of restaurants filing the suit is here.
From the attorney general’s office…
The plaintiffs have not served the defendants or sent us a copy of what they have filed.
* Meanwhile…
The City of Springfield received a $799,000 federal CARES Act grant at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of that, $200,000 was set aside for small business grants, but to date, none of those have been distributed.
Extra community development block grants were also planned for low-interest small business loans, but Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder said a public hearing must be held before those are acted upon. […]
Another CARES Act grant in the amount of $700,000 is also coming to Springfield, but how that money will be spent is set to be determined at a public meeting at 3:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 4, in the Municipal Building. The meeting will also be available to view over Zoom.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Sangamon County Department of Public Health…
There is currently a long line for COVID-19 testing in our SCDPH parking lot. Please use Singer Ave. to Shackelford Dr. (behind JC Penny) when getting in line. Any one who is in the testing line by 5:00pm will be tested today.
COVID-19 testing will also be offered tomorrow from 9:00am-5:00pm in our parking lot, 2833 South Grand Avenue East Springfield, IL 62703.
Seems bad.
*** UPDATE 2 *** I asked SIU School of Medicine for a statement about Mayor Langfelder’s comments…
This is a difficult time for public health, municipal and business leaders. We know that all groups have the health and well-being of all at the top of their priorities. We now face very difficult situations for which there are no easy choices, as we simultaneously endeavor to save lives and promote our livelihood. These issues are complex and multifactorial.
The SIU School of Medicine rejects the simplicity of a false dichotomy that pits public health against economic well-being. We can and should protect both by following the best medical and economic evidence and the public health guidelines designed to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. We urge compliance with mitigation strategies while we all engage in active, multilateral dialog between the leaders of business, government entities, academic institutions, and community organizations. Together we can strive for the best actions for our citizens and communities.”
Jerry Kruse, MD, MSPH
Dean and Provost of SIU School of Medicine
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Question of the day
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* What are your election day plans and how are they different from previous years?
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Today’s must-read
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Katlyn Smith at the Daily Herald talked to several suburban medical professionals and put together a really strong story about what’s going on. It’s not nearly as long as our usual “must-reads,” but it’s no less important…
As Illinois sets another single-day record for COVID-19 infections, hospitals are preparing to feel the strain of a fall and winter surge after weeks of steadily rising patient numbers.
Some medical centers are tightening visitor restrictions. Hospital administrators are hoping they won’t have to postpone elective surgeries again. But national trends are leaving suburban hospital officials anxious.
“I am extremely worried about staff,” said Dr. Sanjeeb Khatua, chief physician executive and COVID-19 incident commander at Edward-Elmhurst Health.
Again, go read the whole thing.
* Related…
* Southern Illinois Healthcare loses one of its own front-line employees to COVID-19 as hospitalizations increase: Within days, her health rapidly declined. Her lungs collapsed and were bleeding, her liver enlarged, her kidneys shut down and she went into respiratory arrest, according to her best friend, Dottie Nikolich, of Christopher. “She suffered greatly with this,” Nikolich said.
* Dr. Anthony Fauci warns US faces ‘a whole lot of hurt’ this winter due to surging COVID-19 cases
* October Coronavirus Cases Climb In Oak Lawn - COVID-19 cases are beginning to surge in parts of suburban Cook County as the state initiates further precautions to help stop the spread.
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* To sum this up, if the Fair Tax fails and President Trump is reelected and/or the Republicans maintain control of the US Senate, and a flat tax hike can’t be achieved by early January, then the state is heading to the Fed’s window…
Illinois, the only U.S. state to borrow from the Federal Reserve, will likely have to tap the central bank again to help close its $4.1 billion deficit if federal aid doesn’t come through and voters reject a ballot measure to raise taxes on the rich, according to Governor J.B. Pritzker.
The cash-strapped state sold $1.2 billion in short-term debt in June to the Fed to help close its fiscal 2020 budget gap. While Pritzker is optimistic that stimulus will arrive at some point and voters next month will approve his signature agenda item to end Illinois’s flat income tax, he’s prepared to use the Fed’s Municipal Liquidity Facility, a lifeline for state and local governments, for a second time.
“If there is no support from the federal government or there’s no fair tax, and so given that situation, we would certainly, for some of that, we would need to go to the MLF borrowing facility, but we would also implement cuts,” Pritzker, a billionaire Democrat, said in an interview. He’s asked state agencies to submit proposals for 5 percent spending cuts this year and another 10 percent for fiscal 2022.
Illinois isn’t alone in its woes. States are facing about a $200 billion revenue shortfall from fiscal 2020 through 2022, according to Moody’s Analytics, but Illinois has little cushion. The state has more than $8 billion of unpaid bills, about $137 billion of unfunded pension liabilities, and its rainy day fund has $858,873. Its borrowing penalty is the highest among states tracked by Bloomberg, with its credit rating only one step above junk.
Thoughts?
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* Lynn Sweet…
With Illinois not in play in the presidential contest, Gov. J.B. Pritzker has emerged as one of the biggest donors to the Democratic Party of Wisconsin — in a crucial battleground state that could help tip the White House to Donald Trump or Joe Biden. […]
On the federal side, $2,256,300 to the Senate Majority PAC and various giving to help elect House Democrats: $256,300 total to Nancy Pelosi Victory Fund; $1 million to the House Majority PAC and $259,100 total to the Cheri Bustos Victory Fund. Bustos is the chair of the Democratic House political operation.
Pritzker also gave $1.5 million to Priorities USA Action, a main pro-Biden super PAC, and $721,300 to the Biden Victory Fund, which was dispersed to a variety of swing state Democratic parties.
On the state party front, Pritzker gave $250,000 to the Michigan Democratic State Central Committee and $2,525,000 to the Democratic Party of Wisconsin Federal Account.
Quentin Fulks, Pritzker’s top political adviser said, “Wisconsin is the closest battleground state in the Midwest” and Pritzker “wanted to ensure that Trump did not win there.”
Emphasis added.
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* The Hill…
The top super PAC backing House Democrats is dropping more than $1 million into a last-minute media blitz defending the chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in a sign that her campaign for a new term is not guaranteed.
The House Majority PAC has reported spending almost $1 million on airtime and another $30,000 on digital advertising on behalf of Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), who heads the DCCC, according to filings made with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Democratic sources in Washington and Illinois said two Republican polls released earlier this month that showed Bustos only narrowly ahead of her Republican rival, attorney Esther Joy King, were catalysts for the late spending blitz. […]
“She’s calling everyone in [Democratic] politics in Illinois to make sure nothing goes sideways. Call time, Zoom fundraisers, the works,” said one Illinois Democratic strategist. “She’s spooked.”
“Washington Republicans have spent nearly $1.5 million in attack ads against Cheri because she represents a district Donald Trump won and is leading the strategy to keep the Speaker’s gavel out of Kevin McCarthy’s hands,” Denise Mousouris, Bustos’s campaign manager, said in an email.
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What’s Ken Griffin’s endgame?
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
Chicago billionaire Ken Griffin has spent $53.75 million to convince Illinoisans to reject a proposed graduated income tax this year.
Illinois currently has a flat income tax. Everyone pays the same rate, rich or poor. Gov. J.B. Pritzker campaigned heavily on increasing taxes on upper-income voters and followed through by convincing the General Assembly to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot. The billionaire Democrat has since spent $56.5 million of his own money to promote the change.
Pritzker is regularly asked about his proposal, but aside from a couple of public statements, Griffin has been quiet. So, I’ve been asking for an interview for weeks, but to no avail.
Griffin’s apparently willing to let the ads he’s paying for speak for themselves. […]
I really wanted to ask him about his endgame, though.
Griffin backed Gov. Bruce Rauner to the hilt. Rauner’s plan was to create a massive crisis in order to force serious structural change. So, is Griffin now trying to create a new crisis by shutting off a revenue stream? Is this a way to starve the budget in order to force the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to address some sort of new pension reforms?
Go read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
For generations now, Chicago has had its own separate set of state laws for just about every topic under the sun. The city’s mayor is allowed to appoint the school board, Chicago has its own “working cash fund” law, the state’s mayoral veto law does not apply to the city and Chicago has a unique exemption allowing it to deduct money from worker paychecks.
From big to archaic, the list is almost endless.
So, when you’ve grown accustomed to doing it your own way for a century or so, you may start thinking you’re a special case in literally everything. And that seems to be what happened last week.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot told reporters she hoped to change Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s mind about imposing the same public health mitigations on the city as the state has imposed on several other regions, including suburban Cook County, and said the two ought to be “in lockstep” on any “new restrictions.”
The mitigations mainly involve shutting down indoor dining and booze-drinking at taverns.
The moment to address this, of course, was months ago when Pritzker laid out the new plan and the boundaries of the new public health districts. Chicago was given its own district back in mid-July (ironically, at the behest of the suburbs), but not its own rules. The city, in fact, imposed even tighter restrictions on restaurants, taverns, parks, beaches, etc. than the rest of the state, which is allowed under Pritzker plan.
But the city and the mayor have known all along that local governments cannot impose looser regulations than the state’s.
And, really, how would DuPage County respond if Chicago was given a special pass on indoor restaurant dining? Not well, I assure you. And Winnebago County denizens would be rightly upset if Chicagoans could drink inside their local taverns and they could not.
Complying with the mayor’s demands would undermine the governor everywhere else in the state. And he’s got enough of that problem as it is.
Look, we know that state mitigation works if regions stick to the program.
Why? Simple.
The Metro East area as well as the region encompassing Will and Kankakee counties both eventually worked their way out of the stricter protocols. Those successes alone should be enough to prove that the spread is slowed when indoor dining and drinking are curtailed. But coverage follows conflict, so news consumers aren’t getting that message. Instead, it’s all about disagreements between political leaders and the furious anger of the hospitality industry.
But both of those previously successful regions are now right back in mitigation. Restaurants and taverns that survived the first mitigation round are now having to go through this nightmare all over again. Businesses in first-time mitigation and those in regions about to be subjected to the limits look at their colleagues and are justly terrified for their futures.
While there’s no doubt that indoor dining, indoor tavern drinking, etc. do, indeed, spread the virus, people should be forgiven for thinking it’s unfair to put the onus completely on those specific businesses — particularly at a time when the federal government is showing absolutely zero interest in helping the businesses cope and the main complainers about Illinois’ rules (other than Lightfoot) are unwilling to vigorously demand federal action.
In order to make this more “fair” and spread out the pain instead of focusing the responsibility, everyday people would be required to do their own part.
Chicago’s contact tracing program shows that “small social gatherings” are major contributors to the spread. “(W)here we’re seeing the greatest challenges is in people’s homes, in social settings that are not public,” Lightfoot said.
But if you think people are upset about the restaurant and tavern situation, try ordering them to avoid all contact with their friends and families.
Yikes.
So, the choices are between ginning up either a horrible backlash with horrible economic consequences or a horrific and widespread public backlash that could conceivably jeopardize everything. Or let it all burn, and Pritzker is not going to do that.
So, “horrible” seems the only do-able choice.
And, make no mistake, without help from D.C., it will truly get horrible for a lot of very good people.
* Related…
* Two McHenry County judges deny separate lawsuits seeking restraining order against Pritzker’s indoor dining ban
* All 11 IDPH regions under IDPH mitigation rules as of November 4
* Springfield has distributed no small business relief grants to date
* Enforcing mitigations from Pritzker. How much power does Mayor Langfelder truly hold?
* Springfield bar, restaurant owners uncertain about future as mitigations begin Sunday
* East Peoria Will Not Enforce New COVID Restrictions, Mayor Says
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Open thread
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My sentiments exactly…
Keep it local, keep it polite and have some fun. Thanks.
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