* From David Jacobson at Moody’s Investors Service…
On p. 5 of its new Weekly Credit Outlook for Public Finance released today, Moody’s notes the State of Illinois (rated Baa2/negative outlook) has experienced a third consecutive annual population drop in 2016, a credit negative underscoring tepid growth trends that will complicate efforts to enact a balanced budget and keep up with mounting pension funding pressures. From 2013-16 as the national population increased 2.2%, Illinois shrank by 0.6% as thousands of residents departed for other states. Illinois was one of only four states to see population declines each year for the period 2014 through 2016, according to Census Bureau data released on December 20.
Net migration has had a negative impact on populations in 31 states since the last census, while helping population growth primarily in states that serve as retirement havens or that have strong economies. But the case of Illinois appears more severe; its annual outflow of residents steadily worsened during the past three years. Based on the Census Bureau’s state-to-state migration estimates for 2015 (the most recent available), many of the top destination states for those leaving Illinois were adjacent or nearby states, such as Indiana (Aaa/stable) or Michigan (Aa1/stable), which both featured faster job growth. Other top destinations for those leaving Illinois included Arizona (Aa2/stable), California (Aa3/stable) and Florida (Aa1/stable).
Population loss can be a cause, as well as an effect, of economic deterioration. A self-reinforcing cycle of population loss and economic stagnation could greatly complicate Illinois’ efforts to stabilize its finances. Even assuming the state reaches a consensus on addressing its current operating deficit and benefits from steady economic growth, Illinois’ pension funding requirements as a share of budget likely will rise to 30% (from about 23% currently) in coming years.
Moody’s declaration of “credit positive” or “credit negative” does not connote a rating or outlook change. It is indicative of the impact of a distinct event or development as one of many credit factors affecting the issuer.
Pension payments rising to 30 percent of the budget is just downright chilling.
A plan could be coming together to end the 18-month-long state budget impasse, but one lawmaker is still concerned the logjam may continue.
State Rep. Mark Batinick, R-Plainfield, said he hears a deal is being worked amongst legislative leaders in the State Senate as a means of circumventing the bad blood between House Speaker Michael Madigan and the governor.
“It does kind of make sense that maybe there would be some shoots out of the Senate because the relationship there is a little more cordial, to say the least,” Batinick said.
While the exact details of the deal are not yet known, in the past Gov. Rauner has expressed openness to considering an increase in the state income tax, if it were paired with significant economic reforms, such as property tax freezes, workers’ compensation reform or term limits.
State Rep. Monique Davis of Chicago has resigned from office, ending a nearly 30-year career in which she developed a reputation as an outspoken lawmaker unafraid of controversy.
Davis submitted a letter of resignation in late December, but it was not received by the Illinois House clerk until Tuesday. In her letter, Davis thanked Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan for “your respect, ethical leadership, responsibility, concern, information, knowledge and most importantly care, concern and assistance for my district.”
“Your leadership as speaker of the House of Representatives of Illinois contributed to my successful legacy,” Davis wrote.
During her time in office, Davis co-sponsored legislation with then-state Sen. Barack Obama to require police to videotape interrogations of murder suspects, fought for funding for her alma mater Chicago State University and served on the panel that recommended the impeachment of ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich.
Her retirement letter is here. She was a force to be reckoned with, for sure.
* I’m told that Justin Slaughter is getting the slot today. Slaughter worked in Pat Quinn’s policy shop and was Deputy Director of Programs for the Illinois Department of Juvenile Justice. He was also district director for Cook County Commissioner Stanley Moore. And he worked for Sen. Kwame Raoul.
Slaughter, 36, is currently the legislative coordinator to the Secretary to the Board of Commissioners in the office of Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle.
Slaughter filed to run against Rep. Davis in the Democratic primary, but withdrew from the race.
Mr. Slaughter has a Bachelor’s in Political Science from the University of Chicago and a Masters of Public Policy and Administration from Northwestern University. Mr. Slaughter is also a proud member of Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity Inc., where he is an executive board member for his local chapter’s foundation. A native Chicagoan, Justin Slaughter grew up on the Southside of Chicago in the Washington Heights community where he currently still resides.
* Revolving Door: John Keller’s been named Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle’s new chief of staff, the fourth for Preckwinkle in the last 16 months. Keller previously ran Chicago Democratic state Rep. Christian Mitchell’s campaign and also worked for Democratic former Gov. Pat Quinn. He most recently served as Preckwinkle’s director of external affairs. In a statement, Preckwinkle said Keller has “a demonstrated ability to work well across the county’s vast landscape of responsibilities” noting his recent work on the 2017 budget, which she called “balanced and fiscally responsible.” Keller replaces Brian Hamer, who was appointed in March and resigned Friday.
Two men and two women have been charged with a hate crime, after allegedly kidnapping an 18-year-old mentally challenged man, torturing him for up to two days, and posting videos of the torture online.
Jordan Hill, 18; Tesfaye Cooper, 18; Brittany Covington, 18; and Tanisha Covington, 24, have been charged with aggravated kidnapping, aggravated unlawful restraint, aggravated battery, and hate crime, according to the Cook County State’s Attorney’s office. Hill also was charged with robbery and possession of a stolen motor vehicle. Hill, Cooper, and Brittany Covington also were charged with residential burglary.
Police have said the 18-year-old victimized in the videos is a northwest suburban resident with special needs who had been reported missing. The four suspects are black. The victim is white.
In the first 30-minute video, which apparently was posted live on Facebook on Tuesday, the victim is backed into a corner, his mouth duct-taped shut. The victim’s clothes were cut, he was peppered with cigarette ashes, and then his hair cut with a knife until his scalp bled.
Several people can be seen laughing and eating during the attack, in addition to making disparaging remarks about President-elect Donald Trump and using racially charged language. At one point, while the victim is backed into a corner, someone is heard shouting “F*** Donald Trump. F*** white people.”
A second video, which surfaced on Twitter, showed the suspects grabbing the teen’s head, shoving it into a toilet, and forcing him to drink.
All four face charges of aggravated kidnapping, hate crime, aggravated unlawful restraint and aggravated battery with a deadly weapon, according to the state’s attorney’s office. Hill also faces charges of robbery, residential burglary and possession of a stolen motor vehicle. Cooper and Brittany Covington are also charged with residential burglary. […]
Community activist Andrew Holmes said of the incident: “In so many ways this was a hate crime because of what they said to him — saying he’s with Trump. When you make a person say, ‘I love black people,’ that’s a hate crime all the way.”
Holmes said he hopes the video doesn’t provoke a racial backlash in Chicago.
“Let the chips fall where they may, and let the judicial system work,” he said.
In November, the day after the election, an online video showed a man being attacked in the North Lawndale neighborhood on the West Side, while bystanders taunted him, saying he had voted for Donald Trump.
Eventually, four people were charged in connection with that attack.
Chicago police said the victim encountered one of the suspects on Monday - apparently someone he’d met before - and he was driven into the city. They did not say which suspect that was.
“He is an acquaintance of one of these subjects. They stole a van and brought him to Chicago,” Area North CPD Commander Kevin Duffin said Wednesday.
“It’s sickening. It makes you wonder what would make individuals treat somebody like that,” [Police Superintendent Eddie Johnson] said. “I’ve been a cop for 28 years and I’ve seen things that you shouldn’t see. It still amazes me how you still see things that you just shouldn’t.
“I’m not going to say it shocked me but it was sickening,” he said.
JAMEY DUNN, the interim editor of Illinois Issues, is leaving her media job to become deputy director of communications for Comptroller SUSANA MENDOZA.
“She’s distinguished herself in her ability to analyze budget data and describe the impact on Illinois residents of state budget decisions,” said ABDON PALLASCH of Chicago, Mendoza’s director of communications who said he approached Dunn about the position. […]
Dunn said she wrote about state special funds some years ago, helping generate what has become a focus on budgetary issues.
Jamey is a darned good reporter.
The others who left are Ivan Moreno and Seth Perlman (AP), Kelsey Gibbs (WCIA), Ed Cross (WAND), Amanda Vinicky (WUIS) and Mike Riopell (Daily Herald).
Republican Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner says he won’t be in Washington later this month for GOP President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Rauner says he’s “focused on Illinois” and is trying “to minimize the distractions” and his time out of state. Rauner is amid a state budget impasse with Democratic lawmakers. Trump is to take the oath of office Jan. 20, just five days before Rauner is scheduled to give the State of the State speech in Springfield.
Rauner did not back Trump for president in the primaries and can claim limited personal and political connections to the new president. He did lend his name to a big Chicago fundraiser that Vice President-elect Mike Pence starred in just before New Year’s, but was on a family vacation and did not attend.
One Rauner insider says you shouldn’t read too much into the inaugural no-show. “There’s no bad blood,” that source says.
But another just chuckled when I asked whether Rauner’s focus isn’t just on passing his budget but in getting himself re-elected in 2018, a task that likely would not be furthered in Democratic-dominated Illinois by the perception that Rauner and Trump are thisclose.
Keep an eye on Trump’s tweets to see if he has any thoughts.
Governor Bruce Rauner spoke on-camera to ABC7 for about 10 minutes in his office on Wednesday. No topic was off limits. He discussed the state’s budget crisis, his relationship with House Speaker Michael Madigan, and what grade he would give himself as governor so far.
RAUNER: The simple fact is both sides need to want an agreement. If you don’t want an agreement, it won’t happen. That’s part of negotiations.
BACA: You are saying you want an agreement.
RAUNER: Boy, very much so.
BACA: But you’re saying the Democrats do not.
RAUNER: They don’t want any change, of any type.
Madigan’s people constantly complain (including on this blog) that reporters don’t provide the other side to Rauner’s statements, but then they don’t cooperate with reporters when Rauner is doing yet another one of his TV appearance rounds.
#FacePalm2.
By the way, Rauner gave himself a “very high grade” on “the things that we control,”and gave himself an “incomplete” on “things that the legislature controls.”
He’s the state’s chief executive, but rarely talks publicly of the scandalous violence in Illinois’ biggest city: hit by 4,300 shootings and nearly 800 killings last year.
FOX 32: Do you agree it’s a crisis, the shootings and killings in Chicago?
“It’s a massive tragedy. It’s just heartbreaking what’s happening in many of our neighborhoods,” Rauner said.
Rauner says his pro-business, turnaround agenda would help reduce Chicago violence
FOX 32: Should you be dropping everything else and focusing on stopping the killing?
“Um, so the question is, “what’s the answer?” Everybody’s got different ideas,” Rauner said. “There’s a lack of economic opportunity. Young people don’t see a future for themselves in so many of these neighborhoods. We have massively high unemployment. Massive unemployment in many neighborhoods in Chicago and around the state. And we have the worst-funded schools in low-income neighborhoods of any state in America. And I’m working to change those two facts, because that will have the long-term impact to keep our neighborhoods safe.”
People need to live in the short-term, too, governor. Long-term is certainly necessary, but what are you doing for them right now during this very real crisis? That was the question.
Ortiz and Garcia were victims of the 38th shooting on Chicago-area expressways in 2016, a record-high number for a city stung by a murder rate not seen in two decades. […]
Political gridlock in Springfield is also a factor, said Joe Moon, president of the Illinois Troopers Lodge 41 Fraternal Order of Police, the union representing state troopers.
Feuding between Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and Democrats who control the legislature has kept the state without a full operating budget since July 2015. That meant no cadet hires in 2015 and 2016, and 2017 remains in limbo as well, state police said.
Since 2000, the number of sworn officers has declined steadily to just over 1,600 from around 2,100, Moon said.
State police said the budget impasse had no impact on the force’s work. Governor Rauner’s spokeswoman, Catherine Kelly, declined to comment beyond what state police said.
“While the world was changing around him, Boss Madigan stayed the same - choosing to tighten his grip on power over fixing a broken status quo. Forty-six years of damage is enough. It’s time for House Democrats to embrace reform and toss Boss Madigan into the dustbin of history.” - Illinois Republican Party Spokesman Aaron DeGroot
Following the release of the Boss Madigan Quiz, the Illinois Republican Party continued its countdown towards January 11th, the election for Speaker of the Illinois House. With six days left until Decision Day, the Illinois Republican Party is releasing a digital ad highlighting major world events that have occurred during Mike Madigan’s unprecedented forty-six years in Springfield.
While the world was witnessing history-making events such as the resignation of an American president, the collapse of Communism, and the advent of new technologies, Mike Madigan, the longest serving House Speaker in United States history, amassed political power to the benefit of his corrupt Chicago Machine.
Next week, House Democrats face an historic choice - side with taxpayers and embrace bipartisan, broadly popular reforms or side with Illinois’ most unpopular career politician, Chicago Political Boss Mike Madigan, and his status quo.
The future of Illinois is at stake. Voters are watching and they will not forget.
* Some progressive House Democrats are hopeful about the direction of their party and their leader…
“The speaker is ready to lead the party in favor of a more bold and clear agenda,” state Rep. Will Guzzardi, a Chicago Democrat, told POLITICO Illinois.
Guzzardi said that he and colleagues in both the House and Senate have been meeting to discuss a policy platform, a messaging strategy, and social media presence — areas in which he says Democrats have failed over the last two years. “The most important work that we must do and that I am working on is to define the message and define the agenda,” Guzzardi said.
Guzzardi said he was among several Democrats who spoke to Madigan last year to “rethink our approach” about how the party was combating the proposed policies of the Republican governor. The group told Madigan that Democrats were failing to express a specific message and offer concrete solutions to the state’s budget woes.
“I was surprised by how receptive the speaker was,” Guzzardi said, adding that Madigan and the rest of the leadership team “have really expressed an openness to start putting forth a more ambitious agenda … I think early in the session you’re going to hear from Democrats on what we think needs to be done. At the very least, we’ll put some bills on the governor’s desk.”
* The House Democrats are getting absolutely pummeled by Rauner. Yeah, the governor’s numbers ain’t good, but theirs are worse. So even a slapdash response would be better than what they’re doing now.
As for social media, I find myself being not quite as optimistic as Guzzardi. Here’s a memo distributed to Madigan’s members during the veto session. Click the pic for a better image…
Sigh.
A caucus website is more than a decade overdue. A leader who once prided himself on using the latest technology became an absolute Luddite when the World Wide Web became a thing, and then doubled down on his retro views when social media emerged.
The problem with this idea is that Speaker Madigan is one of, if not the most unpopular politicians in the state. Tying all of his members’ social media accounts and press releases directly to himself through a web page might not be the greatest idea he ever came up with.
But, hey, that’s classic Madigan. It’s all centralized at the top.
* A far better idea would be to individually help his members expand their social media reach into their own districts.
On top of that, maybe the state party could hire some folks to help focus the hounds on Twitter and Facebook.
For the past two years, I’ve been monitoring two Twitter searches constantly throughout the day. One searches for all mentions of the word “Rauner” and one searches for “GovRauner,” which is his official Twitter handle. I do this as just one more way to monitor breaking news.
However, something else has been happening lately. Ever since Donald Trump won the presidential election, I’ve noticed a dramatic increase in the number of negative references to the governor on Twitter and that far more people are tweeting some pretty harsh stuff at the guy. Some of it is coming from known people and entities, but a whole lot of it is being generated by what appear to be everyday citizens. Something is definitely going on.
Madigan, Rauner’s primary political adversary, is up for reelection as house speaker next week. The governor claimed Wednesday that he’s staying out of the election altogether.
“I’m not getting involved in any of the General Assembly’s decisions on their leadership,” Rauner told NBC 5.
However, the Illinois Republican Party has gotten involved in the race, launching a “Boss Madigan” blog targeting Illinois Democrats with ties to the longtime speaker. Rauner dumped millions into the Illinois Republican Party’s coiffeurs in the lead-up to the 2016 general election, but claimed Wednesday that he doesn’t “run” the party.
“I support it,” he said. “We need a two-party system. We were a one-party state for a long time.”
I just find it impossible to believe that a guy like that would spend money like that and not involve himself in the least.
When asked about re-running for election next year, he said that’s a conversation for another day, but he’s persistent.
He just dumped $50 million of his own money into his campaign account and yet he doesn’t want to talk about it. Lovely.
* Meanwhile, I told subscribers about this yesterday…
As for the race for speaker, House Minority Leader Jim Durkin confirmed Wednesday that he planned to throw in his hat for the position, which he did two years ago. Typically, the top vote-getter in the chamber is elected speaker and the runner-up is minority leader. After the November election, the GOP caucus voted to re-elect Durkin as minority leader and by caucus rules, members will be bound by those votes next week. If a Democrat were to challenge Madigan, he or she would have needed Republicans to cross over.
State Rep. Kelly Cassidy, a Chicago Democrat, said Republican talk of ousting Madigan is nothing more than a distraction from the real issues facing the state.
“There’s a lot of folks talking stuff up as if there’s a bunch of candidates,” she said. “They’re generating emails everywhere, it is creating noise and distraction.”
* As I’ve been warning, fighting a brutish political war and not getting the state’s economic and fiscal houses together is gonna put us into a much, much deeper hole if we slip into a recession. We’re not there yet, but the signs are troubling. From the General Assembly’s Commission on Governmental Forecasting and Accountability’s latest monthly briefing…
Year To Date
With half of the fiscal year completed, base receipts are off $865 million, or 6.1%. Readers of the last several briefings likely have noticed growing oncern with each successive month’s disappointing revenue performance. Embedded within the overall falloff of 6.1%–of which a large part is due to a drop of $290 million or 22.4% in federal sources—is the combined drop of 4.5% from the “Big Three” [gross personal, gross corporate, and sales]. While that percentage falloff may slightly overstate the decline due to timing aspects still related to the income tax rate phase down, perhaps most unsettling is that the last time the Big Three experienced a combined decline during the first half of a fiscal year [absent tax rate changes] was during the recessionary years impacting FY 2009 and FY 2010, when performance was - 0.9% and -10.4%, respectively. That is not to say we are in recession, as most economic measures would indicate otherwise, but rather gives context to what only can be described as troubling revenue performance thus far in FY 2017.
Gross corporate income taxes are off $386 million, or $340 million net of refunds. Gross personal income tax is down $189 million or $260 million if refunds and diversions to the education and human service funds are included. As mentioned, sales taxes are weak and have managed to grow only $45 million. Overall transfers are down $62 million to date. Only the one-time nature of this month’s SERS repayment has allowed other sources to post a $111 million increase.
With continued dramatic falloffs month after month in federal sources, receipts are behind last year’s dismal pace by $290 million. In all likelihood, federal sources will fall several hundred million below the Commission’s forecast, and probably over a billion below the GOMB forecast released in Oct/Nov. [See last month’s briefing for a more detailed discussion of the CGFA/GOMB revenue estimate comparisons].
To summarize, to date the State has experienced across the board revenue weakness. The most closely economically-tied major sources are experiencing levels of weakness not seen since the last recession. This poor receipt performance has limited the ability to direct more resources to reimbursable spending and as a result, federal source receipts have also suffered.
That being said, economic conditions as measured by most conventional indices would reflect weakness, but not at recessionary levels. In addition, non-wage income from strong stock market performance in 2016 could translate into more positive performance in final payments. Additionally, as the Commission has indicated in earlier briefings, the DoR’s ledger conversion has altered historical receipt patterns, likely contributing to some of the year to date declines experienced thus far. As we near the end of the first year’s impact of that accounting conversion, the potential exists for a return to less volatile monthly swings, which up until now, has trended toward the negative.
* John McCarron has long been one of the few adult opinions of reason at the Chicago Tribune. Here’s his latest…
Compromise is possible in Springfield.
Don’t believe it when Democrats say Gov. Bruce Rauner’s reform agenda has no place in negotiations over a state budget. Technically that’s true, but informal quid pro quo deals long have been part of our state’s legislative history.
Likewise, don’t believe Republican claims that Illinois is about to go under because of mismanagement by longtime House Speaker Michael Madigan. Truth is, both parties have been screwing up the state’s finances for decades.
It’s past time to end the blame game and craft a set of compromises that lets both sides save some face, that lets Illinois avoid digging a fiscal hole so deep we may never emerge.
Go read the whole thing. I don’t necessarily endorse all of his ideas, but I do endorse his sentiment. It’s time to end this war once and for all.
Randy Stufflebeam says the dysfunction in state government presents an opportunity for a third-party run. The former career Marine has declared his candidacy for governor under the Constitution Party.
That’s because Stufflebeam says he’s watched both Democrats and Republicans engaging in what he calls “the betrayal of our constitutions.”
Specifically he points to a provision in the Illinois Constitution commonly thought to require the governor and legislature to pass balanced budgets.
“It is not a suggestion,” Stufflebeam says. “It’s not a wish list or anything. It is a mandate.” […]
“The election of Donald Trump, being the ‘outsider,’ really espouses the fact that people want something that is not the mainstream,” he says. Stufflebeam, of Belleville, spent 22 years in the United States Marine Corps.
OK, but Trump got 39 percent of the vote here. Stufflebeam received about 19,000 votes as a write-in candidate back in 2006.
Madigan is the longest-serving House Speaker in Illinois history and in the nation currently. Madigan became an Illinois legislator in 1971 and has been Speaker of the House in Illinois for all but two years since 1983. During the time Madigan has been Speaker, Illinois has had six different governors, more than 200 state senators and more than 500 state representatives.
The power Madigan wields as Speaker has caused many to refer to him as the “King of Illinois”.
But Illinois voters statewide don’t get to pick who holds that position. If they did, they certainly wouldn’t choose Madigan. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters in Illinois disapprove of the speaker.
So how has he stayed in power for so long? Illinoisans should ask their representatives.
Just as voters elect state representatives, state representatives elect the speaker of the House every two years. To become the speaker, Madigan just needs a majority vote.
“I don’t become the speaker because someone issues an edict,” Madigan said in a 2004 interview. “I become the speaker because there are at least 60 members of the House, generally Democrats, who vote for me to be the speaker.”
The Democratic Party has held a majority in the Illinois House for all but two years since 1983. They can select anyone to be the House speaker. But they choose Madigan every time.
In fact, there is not a single sitting House Democrat who has ever voted for someone other than Madigan for the speakership. (Note: In 1995, a House Republican majority made Lee Daniels the House speaker by acclamation, which means Democrats in attendance technically voted for Daniels.)
Nearly two-thirds of registered voters in Illinois disapprove of Madigan — it’s time for representatives to respect taxpayers by not re-electing Madigan as Speaker of the Illinois House. That’s why Illinois Policy is holding a protest to demand that Illinois lawmakers vote for a new Speaker of the Illinois House.
Date
Wednesday January 11, 2017
Time
12:00 Noon
Place
University of Illinois - Springfield
Sangamon Auditorium, UIS
One University Plaza
Springfield, IL 62703
Agenda
TBD
Love that “agenda.” I suppose they’ll just howl at the wind.
Following the release of Boss Madigan’s New Year’s resolutions, the Illinois Republican Party continued its countdown towards Jan 11th, the election for Speaker of the Illinois House. With seven days left until Decision Day, the Illinois Republican Party is launching the Boss Madigan Quiz to test just how much Illinoisans really know about Mike Madigan’s decades of failure.
Boss Madigan has presided over so much of Illinois’ downfall that some of these answers are downright shocking, but absolutely true.
The Illinois Republican Party said in a statement that the race will be a choice between change for the state and protecting the status quo: “2018 will present a clear choice between those like Governor Rauner who want to reform state government so it works for taxpayers, and those who will protect the status quo that only benefits political insiders and special interests,” spokesman Steven Yaffe said.
A veteran Democratic strategist said a strong Rauner challenger must have no ties to Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan — whom Rauner’s Republicans spent millions to tarnish in legislative races — along with the capability of raising lots of campaign cash.
Others say candidates also need some national recognition.
“I would say that you really need to have the ability to build a coalition, a statewide coalition of individuals who really care about the state and the direction that it’s going in. And I think that coupled with a real message I think that resonates with the electorate. And obviously, the ability to raise the necessary resources, both within the state and also whatever support or outreach they have nationally,” said Hanah Jubeh, a consultant to Kennedy. “I think those three elements are going to be kind of the secret sauce to beating Rauner.”
Besides the money factor, strategists say there is a concerted effort to find someone with the greatest chance of beating Rauner — even putting individual political aspirations aside. There is much talk of the importance of uniting behind the best candidate, strategists told the Chicago Sun-Times.
I agree on this much with Ameya Pawar, the 47th Ward alderman who on Tuesday offered himself as the longest of long shots looking to replace Bruce Rauner in the governor’s office:
The Democratic nominee for governor in 2018 doesn’t necessarily need to be someone of exceptional wealth who can match Rauner’s money.
What Democrats need more is someone with good ideas who can offer — and effectively communicate — a vision for Illinois’ future that can compete with Rauner’s.
To be sure, having a lot of money could be very helpful in communicating that message, as it has proven to be for Rauner, who has effectively taken control of the public discussion with his “Mike Madigan is the root of all evil” campaign.
But at some point, and it might not come in 2018 with Madigan still on the scene, there’s going to be a voter backlash against the efforts of the state’s wealthiest people to reshape government in their own images.
“Effectively communicate” is the operative phrase. If you can’t do that, you’re toast. Rauner has a simple, basic message that effectively taps into populist anger and he brazenly ties literally every issue under the sun to that message. The Democrats, in turn, have done almost nothing to knock him off his game. They need a candidate for governor who can do that and lots more.
* Related…
* Aide: Bustos ’seriously considering’ run at Rauner: “Cheri (Bustos) thinks Bruce Rauner has been an absolute disaster for working families in her district and across our state, so she’s committed to making sure Democrats have a candidate who can defeat him in 2018,” Stacy Raker, senior adviser to Bustos, said in a statement Monday.
* Reeder: It’s all about the power: Rauner views his election as a voter indictment of the longtime political boss, who he blames for Illinois’ fiscal ills. And he’s right for blaming Madigan. But Rauner has done a poor job of messaging about why he is engaged in this struggle. I’ve covered every governor since James R. Thompson and this administration has done the worst job by far of sharing its vision for the state. Because of this, voters view this conflict as a personality clash between two egos rather than a conflict between divergent political philosophies. Madigan is hell-bent on making sure Rauner has no successes to run on when he seeks re-election. And the people of Illinois are suffering for it.
The Illinois Health and Hospital Association (IHA) has announced that Tim Nuding will join IHA as senior vice president of member relations on January 17. Nuding will direct all of the Association’s diverse membership activities and programs, as well as IHA’s educational curriculum and communications and marketing efforts.
“Tim Nuding has extensive management experience and proven leadership, communication and analytical skills that will strengthen IHA’s ability to address the many needs of our members,” said IHA President & CEO A.J. Wilhelmi. “In addition, he has considerable expertise about critical state government policies and programs, including the state budget, which will be invaluable.”
For the past two years, Nuding served as Director of the Governor’s Office of Management & Budget, being responsible for managing Illinois’ $60 billion state budget and advising the Governor and top Executive branch staff on budgetary matters and policy issues with fiscal implications. Previously, he held several key positions in the Illinois General Assembly, including Chief of Staff to Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno (2009-2014) and Director of the Senate Republican Committee and Appropriations staffs (2001-2009).
“I am excited to join an organization that is strongly committed to advancing the health and well-being of all Illinoisans,” said Nuding. “I look forward to working with A.J. Wilhelmi, the IHA Board and the Association’s more than 200 hospital members across the state who play a critical role in our state’s healthcare delivery system as well as our economy.”
Dealing with any federal changes to Obamacare and Medicaid on the state level will be a huge priority for the IHA here. Nuding will most definitely be an asset.
* Related…
* ADDED: Illinois hospital group warns of post-ACA deficit
Chicago’s rampant violence is contagious and should be treated like a disease, according to a study published Tuesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.
Researchers focused on a network of about 138,000 people in Chicago — including about 9,800 gunshot victims — between 2006 and 2014. The network was comprised of people who’ve been arrested with someone else.
Shooting victims were almost twice as likely as non-victims to have associated with another gunshot victim in the network, the study found. The average time that elapsed between two associates getting shot was just 125 days, according to the study by Andrew Papachristos of Yale University and Ben Green and Thibaut Horel of Harvard University.
Their study said gun violence in Chicago and other cities like Newark, N.J., and Boston “follows an epidemic-like process of social contagion that is transmitted through networks by social interactions.”
The researchers said violence-prevention programs in Chicago and across the country should take a “public-health approach” to dealing with people in dangerous networks.
Being in a violent social network poses an even greater risk than demographic factors like race, age, sex and living in a high-crime neighborhood, the study found.
There has been a well document increase in shootings and killings in Chicago in 2016 – with August 2016 designated the deadliest month in Chicago in almost 20 years and the projection for the end of year total predicting the deadliest year in at least 10 years. Cure Violence recently conducted an analysis of one potential factor – the level of implementation of the Cure Violence (CeaseFire) program in Chicago – looking at the time and place of the increase and how it coincides with cuts to the CeaseFire program.
As the analysis shows, increase in shootings and killings in Chicago began in early 2015 and coincide in time with the cut in state funding of CeaseFire in March 2015 that resulted in the closure of most of the sites and a laying off of most of the workers. Before the cut, CeaseFire programs were operating in 14 communities in Chicago with 71 workers and averaging 81 mediations per month. After the cut, there was only one full site and 3 partial sites with 10 workers.
The districts where the CeaseFire programs were cut are the districts where violence increased the most, accounting for 94% of the total citywide increase in shootings. In particular, the 11th district—where CeaseFire operated its longest running program with 10 experienced staff before the cut—were two times greater than the district with the next highest total. This staff was ediating an average of 10 high risk conflicts per month before the cut. The 4th district was the only district that had reductions in shootings and killings (57 fewer shootings and 6 fewer homicide than the mean baseline). The 4th district is also the location of the only CeaseFire program that had full staffing after the cut in funding. These workers are mediating an average of 17 conflicts per month, which independent evaluations have surgested is a key element to reducing shootings and killings. There are several other control methods as well that are required to have a full program.
And this isn’t the first time this has happened. In 2004, there was a tripling of Cure Violence coinciding with a 25% decrease in shootings and killings, and in 2008 and 2012 cuts to the program coincided with large increases in violence in 2007-8 and 2011-2. Additionally, when funding was restored in 2008 and 2012, violence dropped to previous lower levels. In total, at six distinct points the level of violence changed when Cure Violence implementation changed. This analysis, along with data on effect sizes from independent evaluations, demonstrates that there is an inverse orrelation between the level of implementation of the Cure Violence model and the level of shootings and killings in Chicago. Further, it suggests that expanding the Cure Violence model to all areas with high rates of lethal violence in Chicago could dramatically reduce homicides to less than 350 per year and possibly less 200.
If you want to see how Gov. Bruce Rauner’s mind works, you should skim through the vast trove of e-mails from Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s private account that a Better Government Association lawsuit finally forced into public view.
For instance, back in September 2011, Rauner was the chairman of the Chicago Convention & Tourism Bureau. Legendary Springfield insider Jim Reilly was the Bureau’s CEO at the time.
A state law designed to weaken labor union strength at the massive convention center had been tossed out by a federal judge, and Rauner was apparently arguing for “really kicking ass” with a “full court press” to ram new anti-union legislation through the General Assembly during the upcoming fall veto session. Reilly, however, was trying to negotiate an agreement with the unions. The reforms were first implemented when major convention center customers threatened to abandon Chicago over high costs.
Chairman Rauner told CEO Reilly on Sept. 30, 2011 that calls from hotels and restaurants had “accelerated.” The future governor explained the entities were worried that a “negotiated partial restoration” of the stricken legislation wouldn’t be enough. And, Rauner claimed, “they believe decisive, unilateral action that demonstrates unions don’t have their old clout is the only way.”
Reilly did his very best to charm Rauner into submission. He started out by bluntly informing Rauner there was “no support in key quarters” for a legislative solution. Reilly and the mayor weren’t passing up an opportunity, he explained, because “There is no opportunity to pass up. It is an illusion!”
“I know that you can say that maybe if we make a full court press we could force the issue,” the experienced Springfield hand explained to the businessman Rauner, “but that is sort of like me saying that if we put enough money in some venture capital opportunity that looks good to me but you know just won’t work, we might make a fortune.”
Reilly also defended his and Emanuel’s preference for talks. “We are not negotiating because it is easier or because the Mayor or me or anyone else involved lacks guts or doesn’t understand what is at stake,” he wrote. “We are negotiating because it is the best, perhaps the only, way to save the trade show industry in Chicago which, in my judgment, will come as close to collapsing or closer than it was in the spring of 2010 if we get through veto session with no resolution and have to wait until the appeal plays itself out sometime late this year or, more likely, sometime next spring.”
Reilly then gave the compromise-averse Rauner a status update on the union talks. “In our negotiations, we are already home on the ability of exhibitors to do their own work in a booth of any size and which will be forever enshrined in state law free from legal challenge. No compromise here. This is huge!”
He also warned against another Rauner legislative idea, which he said couldn’t be passed and even if it did, the law “would almost certainly be challenged setting off another year or so of uncertainty which the negotiations route seeks to avoid.”
Reilly assured Rauner that if the negotiations succeeded he had no doubts that the convention center would be back to where it was before that federal judge tossed all those reforms out the window.
“You talk of ‘really kicking ass’ but, Bruce, we were really kicking ass back then and we can be doing again soon but I sincerely believe that negotiation is our only possible route,” Reilly explained.
“I don’t blame you for wanting a perfect world for the Chicago trade show industry. I would like that too but absolute perfection doesn’t happen very often,” Reilly wrote. “If it did, the world wouldn’t need people like you and me to drag it along.” A real charmer, that Reilly.
So, to sum up, a total hard line stance against negotiating with unions, a rigid demand for a “full court press” to pass a politically impossible and likely unconstitutional legislative action that “really kicks ass,” and a refusal to accept any compromise solution short of what he believed was “absolute perfection.”
Sound familiar?
Less than a month later, Reilly wrapped up his union negotiations. Crain’s Chicago Business reported that the agreements “largely preserve work-rule changes enacted at the convention center last summer.”
So, perhaps we could get out of this two-year impasse nightmare if the governor would just put Reilly on contract?
Nah. It’ll never happen. The governor no longer has to listen to gray beards who could talk some reasonable sense into him.
* Rep. Mike Smiddy (D-Hillsdale) got his clock cleaned in November, winning just 37 percent of the vote. He received the full “Because… Madigan!” treatment by the Republicans, despite being one of the more independent-minded House Democrats. There was also a big swing in his district away from the top of the ticket. President Obama won the district four years ago by 15 points. Donald Trump won it last November by 6 points.
Even so, Smiddy’s 26-point loss means he drastically underperformed the top of the ticket. Bruce Rauner won his district two years ago by 14 points and Smiddy still managed to hold on, winning by a point.
So, Madigan and Trump were factors, but the guy did himself no favors on the campaign trail. Still, he’s not wrong about this…
“The past two years have been a complete failure on the part of government in Illinois and I think the next two years are going to be a lot more of the same,” said outgoing Illinois Rep. Mike Smiddy (D-Hillsdale) during an interview with News 8’s Jim Mertens.
“As long as you have the Speaker controlling what gets out of the rules (committee) for legislation, I don’t see [redistricting reform] coming anywhere close to hitting the floor.”
And as for term limits, forget about it.
“It’s not about getting rid of your local legislator,” Smiddy believes.
“It’s all geared toward getting rid of Madigan and in some respects I don’t think that’s a bad idea. I think he’s kinda outlived his usefulness in Springfield.”
“It’s encouraging to see Democrats finally standing up to Mike Madigan’s dirty political tactics. Rep. Smiddy is absolutely right – Madigan uses his control to block reforms, and because of that it’s time for him to go.” – Illinois Republican Party Spokesman Steven Yaffe
Let’s take a look at headlines from just one day in December:
• The state’s bill backlog tops $11.3 billion as the political impasse preventing a budget deal dragged on.
• Chicago’s homicide rate is so freakishly high that it’s significantly driving up the national rate.
• The state’s most effective corporate tax incentive will expire at the end of the month, and both parties are blaming each other.
• The Illinois Republican Party, which has not taken any time off since the 2014 election, launched yet another ad against yet another potential Democratic candidate for governor.
• And, of course, the biggest news of the day came when the U.S. Census Bureau reported that Illinois lost more population than any other state.
In response to that last cataclysmic revelation, we got a tweet from Gov. Bruce Rauner about the need for “reforms” and a press release from his office calling on the Democrats to back his pro-business/anti-union reforms so that a budget deal could get done.
But, hey, at least that was something. The Democrats were universally silent.
If you look at the numbers, you’ll see that the easy explanations won’t cut it. Did a net 114,144 people leave Illinois for other states between July 1, 2015, and July 1, 2016, because of the weather? Some surely did, but Minnesota, which has far colder winters than we do, lost only 1,762 people to other states.
And it’s not just taxes, either. Minnesota raised its income tax on the wealthiest not long ago, and its lowest state tax rate is 5.35 percent, far above our 3.75 percent, which was lowered from 5 percent two years ago. Minnesota’s property taxes are lower, but Wisconsin ranked higher on property taxes as a percentage of home value as Illinois, and yet Illinois’ net domestic out-migration rate was over four times as high. Wisconsin’s income tax rate is also higher than ours.
Is it our unemployment rate? Well, Pennsylvania, which also has a bitterly divided government and lousy weather, had a higher unemployment rate than we did in October, yet our net domestic out-migration rate was more than twice as high. The equivalent of an entire Illinois House district just fled to other states. In a year.
Our higher education system, which drives prosperity in “normal” states, has been underfunded, overpriced and underperforming for years, and the situation has gotten much worse since Bruce Rauner became governor.
We’re in a position where Idaho—yes, Idaho—creates more manufacturing jobs than we do.
When you think about all of those headlines, the only surprise may be that more people aren’t leaving.
Yes, we’ve been losing folks to out-migration for decades, pretty much since the advent of air conditioning in the South. But after factoring in international migration, births, deaths, etc., our total net loss was 37,508 people. Those net losses started in 2014, when we lost about 12,000 people. That number more than doubled in 2015, to over 28,000. And then it rose again this year. No other state is experiencing this.
And all we get is either partisan politicking or silence.
At the end of 2014, unemployment was falling here and Illinois was paying all of its appropriated bills in less than 30 days. There were, of course, still serious problems. A Republican promising big change couldn’t have been elected governor that year if everything was fine.
The bill payment cycle is now about six months. Schools aren’t getting all their promised state money, which puts pressure on our already sky-high property taxes. Some universities just won’t survive if this impasse continues. And the poor and defenseless? Well, they’re out of luck.
Our state’s leaders did essentially the same thing before the last recession. Billions in unpaid bills piled up while House Speaker Michael Madigan waged a two-year war with the thoroughly corrupt Gov. Rod Blagojevich. By the time it was all over, international events had overtaken us and it took six long and painful years to dig out from under the mess.
Yes, Bruce Rauner is a hardheaded enemy of organized labor. He doesn’t appear to care about most public universities. His heart is seemingly unmoved by the plight of the defenseless.
But whatever else you can say about him, Bruce Rauner is no Rod Blagojevich. This fight is over policy and politics, not corruption.
Illinois is now in an all-too-real danger of becoming a failed state, and I don’t use that phrase lightly. Throw a couple of victories at the guy and let’s move the heck on to our other problems before it’s too late.
* Madigan’s spokesman Steve Brown responded in comments…
Little surprising Rich does not tell readers the Dems have tossed the Governor several wins, but they are never enough. Hard to understand
Those “wins” include a microscopic change to the workers’ comp law and a rejected (by Rauner) change to DCEO’s composition. Madigan won’t even agree yet to advance Senate President Cullerton’s pension reform idea.
* Campaign and lobbying powerhouses Victor Reyes and Mike Noonan were interviewed on The Daily Line’s “Aldercast” podcast the other day. The whole thing is most definitely worth a listen, partly because those two guys rarely consent to interviews, but also because there’s a reason why they’re respected insiders. They’re highly accomplished and very smart.
We [himself and Reyes] focus on “how do we win?” Everything else doesn’t really matter… winning is critical. So when you look at the gubernatorial race, the Republicans have one major advantage right now, and that’s that Gov. Rauner has unlimited resources and he has proven that he is willing to use them.
The Democrats have all the rest of the structural advantages. Hillary Clinton just carried the state by 16 points. We have a super majority in the Senate and a near super majority in the House.
To me, the formula is fairly straight-forward. First thing you do is you eliminate the advantage that the Republicans have. And the way to do that is by getting a candidate who can match or surpass the financial resources that Rauner brings to the table.
The Speaker and President Cullerton did a masterful job of raising the resources to be able to negate the Republican financial advantage at the legislative level in 2016. They’re going to need to do that same job to match those same legislative expenditures [in 2018]. There’s a finite amount of money, right? Can the unions and the trial lawyers and the other main, traditional givers find the $40 million that’s needed on the legislative side and then find another $90 million for governor? Unlikely. […]
It is unfortunate, but it’s the reality that until we do something about the way the campaigns are financed, yeah, that’s the era that we are entering into. […]
When you look from a Democratic perspective at what’s at risk in the 2018 election. The [2018 election] is going to determine who controls the legislative [district] map until 2030. The fight that we have here in Illinois is the most critical one I’ve seen in my 25 years of working. And I think that, while we may not be crazy about the fact that we have to limit our choices to self-funders, that’s I think the reality we need to come to if we want to be serious about defeating Gov. Rauner.
Make no mistake, [Rauner] and his team are incredibly formidable. The notion that they won because of Gov. Quinn is folly to me. They won, and they made advances in 2016, because they’re good at what they do. And they are fearless and they are willing to push the envelope in ways that we haven’t seen before. And so if we don’t take that challenge seriously, I think that we are going to face a bad outcome.
For a sitting, massively rich Republican governor who just added $50 million in personal cash to his re-election campaign, a sitting Chicago alderman with a measly $50,000 probably doesn’t seem much of a threat.
And perhaps pro-business, union-critic Governor Bruce Rauner has nothing to worry about from 47th Ward Alderman Ameya Pawar, a liberal (progressive, if you prefer) who has decided to take him on.
Pawar, 36, in an exclusive interview with NBC Chicago’s Ward Room, made it official as of Tuesday.
“I am running because we’ve gotten to a point in this country where wealth worship is the only qualifier for public office, trumping public policy. Chopping benefits or declaring strategic bankruptcy or selling companies off in pieces for profit is somehow seen as the secret ingredient for an Illinois utopia,” said Pawar.
The case he plans to make? In his words, “Government should be aspirational. People like to tell us how terrible government is but it was the federal government after the Great Depression that created the middle class. And sent a man to the moon.”
Pawar, an Indian-American, who holds three graduate degrees in urban planning, disaster management and social policy, is accustomed to being discounted.
Ameya Pawar – A Tax-Hiking Politician Just Like Mike Madigan
“I don’t believe we’re overtaxed in Illinois…I think we’re under taxed.”
“Chicago Alderman Ameya Pawar is the very definition of an out-of-touch, tax-hiking politician just like Mike Madigan. While job-crushing tax increases without reform has caused an exodus from Illinois, Pawar doubled down on the Madigan Chicago agenda, supporting higher income taxes, higher property taxes, and even a tax on our drinking water.” - Illinois Republican Party Spokesman Steven Yaffe
This morning, Chicago Alderman Ameya Pawar announced a longshot bid for Governor. His signature issue? Raising your taxes, taking a page out of the Mike Madigan playbook.
In August, an out-of-touch Pawar stated, “I don’t believe we’re overtaxed in Illinois…I think we’re under taxed.”
Pawar doesn’t just talk about raising our taxes. He’s done it repeatedly.
Pawar said that Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s budget containing a $598 million property tax increase was, “the right thing to do”.
Pawar even defended a 28 percent tax on water and argued for a tax on Chicago businesses, which would drive even more jobs out of the state.
But the Chicago alderman argued that’s not the case, noting that he and his wife are members of the middle class and “pay more than our fair share” of taxes.
“When I say undertaxed I mean the wealthy are undertaxed,” he told NBC 5. “We have a very aggressive tax structure, we’re really talking about reform. Let’s talk about equitable public education funding by making sure the wealthy pay their fair share.”
What’s that old adage about “When you’re explaining…”?
Still, the Illinois GOP claimed Pawar said Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s budget, including a $598 million property tax increase was, “the right thing to do.”
“I understand their response, because $50 million buys a lot of negativity and you know that’s OK,” Pawar said. “The upper middle class all the way down to the working middle class to the poor are all in the same boat, we pay more than our fair share [of taxes].”
The harsh reality is it’s gonna be tough to be a Chicago alderman and run statewide.
* Related…
* Pawar Officially Announces Run For Governor, Calls Rauner ‘Original Trump’: “On my end, having $50,000 in the bank is nothing to be ashamed of. It doesn’t mean I’m not supported in other ways,” he said. “I’m going to run the ‘Every Man’ campaign.” … “Government doesn’t just report to a small group of shareholders,” said Pawar. “It reports to all people.”
