A look at the numbers
Tuesday, Jul 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A new national survey conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute in partnership with The Brookings Institution found that 52 percent of Americans favor gay marriage, while 41 percent oppose it. Another 7 percent said they were undecided.
* But the survey can also help us figure out why there is such push-back among African-American churches and Republicans to gay marriage here in Illinois.
For instance…
Among black Americans, nearly half (49%) are theological conservatives, 30% are theological moderates and 14 percent are theological liberals.
That compared to 40-25-18 for whites, so, overall, African-Americans are quite a bit more conservative theologically than whites.
That doesn’t explain everything, of course. New York has a higher percentage of African-Americans than Illinois, but it still approved gay marriage.
* And…
Republicans (57%) are nearly twice as likely as independents (31%) or Democrats (31%) to be theological conservatives. Tea Party members have a similar theological profile to Republicans overall, as nearly 6-in-10 (59%) are theological conservatives.
That Tea Party bent is what frightens incumbent Republicans the most, because that’s where their primary campaign opposition has been coming from during the past few cycles.
* And this is why the opposition appears to be literally dying off…
Religious conservatives make up smaller proportions of each successive generation, from 47% of the Silent Generation, 34% of the Baby Boomers, 23% of Generation X and 17% of Millenials.
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* A commenter mentioned something the other day which caught my eye. The commenter claimed that the Civic Committee’s Ty Fahner admitted in a March speech to the Union League Club that he had actively helped talked down the state’s bond rating in order to put more pressure on the General Assembly to pass pension reform.
So, I looked up the video and watched it this morning while hanging out at my uncle’s house…
The commenter wasn’t quite right, but he was close.
* If you go to about the 47-minute mark, you’ll hear an unidentified questioner say this to Fahner…
“Maybe sometimes you gotta be irresponsible to be responsible. If a political solution really doesn’t produce a favorable outcome, maybe you really need a market solution. And a market solution, I don’t mean bankruptcy, I mean actually talking down the state rating even further so the state’s bonds essentially become below investment grade. And it drives up the borrowing cost to the state and all of us to a significant level enough that you really feel the public pressure…”
* Fahner’s response…
“The Civic Committee, not me, but some of the people that make up the Civic Committee… did meet with and call - in one case in person - and a couple of calls to Moody’s and Fitch and Standard & Poors, and say ‘How in the hell can you guys do this? You are an enabler to let the state continue. You keep threatening more and more and more.’
“And I think now we’ve backed off. We don’t want to be the straw that broke the camel’s back… It hasn’t been irresponsible, but we have told them that we thought they were being irresponsible. But we stopped that a couple of months ago.”
Thoughts?
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IFI plans Statehouse veto session rally
Tuesday, Jul 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From an Illinois Family Institute action alert…
Join IFI and Illinois families from around the state to take a stand to protect marriage, religious freedom, parental rights and the innocence of our children! Plan to bring your family and friends AND organize your church to support this second Defend Marriage Lobby Day.
It is critically important that we have a strong showing because homosexual activists continue to press for counterfeit “marriage” (SB 10), which will affect all of society, especially children and religious freedom. The groups pushing to pass this bill are planning to be at the Capitol on October 22nd, the day before our event. According to a 6-12-13 Windy City Times article, they have dubbed it “10.000 Families March for Marriage Equality.”
MARK YOUR CALENDARS NOW!
Wednesday, October 23rd
9:00 AM – 3:00 PM
Illinois State Capitol
401 South 2nd Street, Springfield, IL 62701
Schedule:
9:00 AM - 10:30 AM Prayer Watch at the Lincoln Statue
(east side of Capitol)
11:00 AM - 12:00 PM Marriage Rally in Rotunda
1:00 PM - 3:00 PM Prayer Watch in the Rotunda
9:00 AM - 3:00 PM Visit your state representatives […]
Over the past seven months, we have been busy contacting churches in key districts. Thousands of religious leaders from across the state have responded, voicing their opposition to marriage redefinition to local state lawmakers. They have urged their members to stand for God-ordained marriage. And as a result, YOU stepped forward. Perhaps for the first time. Thank you! But we need you to do it again, for as long as this issue is on the minds of those who are in power to pass laws.
Keep in mind, there is strong opposition to same-sex marriage here in Illinois. You are that opposition! The establishment media would have us believe that it is only a matter of time — that marriage redefinition is inevitable. It is only inevitable if we fail to speak up and demonstrate our objection to this radical policy!
Discuss.
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You’ll need a ticket to see the Cup
Tuesday, Jul 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Stanley Cup is coming to Springfield, but only for private ceremonies so far…
Rocky Wirtz - chairman of the 2013 National Hockey League champion Chicago Blackhawks - announced Monday the trophy will appear at private events on July 29.
It will go to a legislative reception at the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum, then for a photo with the Illinois Air National Guard’s 183rd Fighter Wing.
The public may snap photos with the trophy when it arrives at Abraham Lincoln Capital Airport at 7 a.m. and leaves the library and museum at 9 a.m.
Officials say it’s possible the cup will be back in Springfield next month.
If there’s a special session during the State Fair, it’s possible that we might see it again.
* Meanwhile…
A bet is a bet, and Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick is certainly a man of his word.
Following a friendly Stanley Cup wager with Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, the two politicians are coming together Tuesday to volunteer at the Greater Chicago Food Depository. The afternoon at the food bank is all part of a bet made prior to Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, in which the Chicago Blackhawks topped the Boston Bruins in six games.
The wager dictated that the losing team’s governor would agree to spend the day volunteering at a food bank in the winning team’s city. Patrick actually grew up in Chicago and last month had a portion of a city street named in his honor. It was just one high-profile bet made on a series that will forever be ranked among the most exciting Cup Finals in recent history.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Jul 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* There is probably little harm right now, and probably far more upside, to promoting one’s possible candidacy for governor, considering the apparent dissatisfaction voters have with the two Democratic candidates. So, this self-floatation should be expected…
ABC7’s political reporter Charles Thomas has learned another candidate might enter the democratic race for Illinois Governor. State senator Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) says he is giving it serious consideration.
Raoul was poised to run for attorney general if incumbent Lisa Madigan had run for governor. Now that Madigan has decided to stay put, Raoul has “pivoted” as he put it, and is now sizing up a gubernatorial campaign.
“You know, you don’t rule out anything. So I haven’t ruled out anything. But my focus right now is this pension reform problem,” said Sen. Raoul. […]
The Governor’s strong support among African-Americans could be threatened by Raoul, a 48-year-old Hyde Park attorney who took Barack Obama’s Senate seat in 2004. He authored the bill that abolished the state’s death penalty and this year, helped negotiate the new concealed carry law.
He says he will not make a decision on the Governor’s race until after his conference committee finishes work on pension reform.
“Once we take care of this problem, politics will take care of itself,” said Sen. Raoul.
* The Question: Should Sen. Kwame Raoul run for governor? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please. And please note that I asked “should” and not “will.”
polls
Just so you know, it’s probably gonna be a light blogging day. So, have at it.
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Separated at birth?
Monday, Jul 22, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Via a Facebook friend, here’s Bill Daley and Edgar Bergen’s Charlie McCarthy Jeff Dunham’s Walter…
Discuss.
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Question of the day
Monday, Jul 22, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The AP looks at the graduated tax hike proposals…
Influential Democrats sponsoring legislation in Springfield say the graduated tax — a system used by the federal government and 34 of 41 other states that charge an income tax — is the fairest form of taxation. They say a majority of Illinoisans would get a tax cut from the current rate, but the financially struggling state would take in more money because the wealthiest earners would pay more.
“We hear it said that Illinois is a wealthy state, and it is, but there’s also this great disparity,” said Rep. Naomi Jakobsson, a Democrat from Champaign who’s sponsoring the measure in the Illinois House. “We should have done this a long time ago.”
But Republicans say it’s a tax increase in disguise and accuse Democrats of going back on their word that the 2011 income tax hike would be temporary. They note Democrats’ promises that the 2011 increase — from 3 percent to 5 percent for individuals — would help Illinois out of its financial crisis, yet two and a half years later, the budget has grown and the state still has a multibillion-dollar backlog of bills.
I didn’t realize that Rep. Jakobsson was so influential. Also, the budget has grown mainly because the state is finally making its full pension payments. And the bill backlog has been shrunk, but not mentioned is that there was a provision in the tax hike bill earmarking some of the new revenues to make payments on a bond to pay off the backlog. That bill didn’t pass because it required a three-fifths majority in both houses.
Also, keep in mind that a constitutional amendment for a graduated income tax will require a three-fifths vote in both chambers. It can probably clear the Senate, but the House is a far different story as long as the Republicans remain opposed.
* Jim Nowlan…
The Center for Tax and Budget Accountability in Chicago has a mission of putting a few more bucks in the pockets of the working poor. It is a good-hearted group, and I helped found it. The Center has proposed a state income tax that would be graduated from 5 percent to 11 percent, the highest rate for those with incomes over $1 million.
The Center claims that under their proposal 94 percent of Illinois workers would actually pay less in taxes, because of liberal individual exemptions from the tax, while the rich would share more of the burden
We do need to figure out how to rebuild a middle class that has eroded into working poor status in recent decades. The Center points out that between 1979 and 2010, inflation-adjusted wages for the bottom 60 percent of workers actually dropped while for the top ten percent wages went up 23 percent.
The big trouble is the CTBA proposed rates aren’t in either of the two proposed constitutional amendments. The rates would be set by statute, and they could be anything.
And the Constitution’s cap on corporate income tax rates (currently an 8-5 ratio between corporate and personal rates) would be eliminated.
* Minnesota’s recent enactment of higher progressive rates has been met with pretty strong public approval…
An income tax increase on the wealthiest Minnesotans, the centerpiece of Gov. Mark Dayton’s budget, is supported by 58 percent of those polled, compared with 36 percent opposed. […]
(T)he Legislature created a new tax rate of 9.85 percent for adjusted gross income above $250,000 for couples and above $150,000 for individuals. Income below those levels will continue to be taxed at existing rates. Dayton has said the increase applies to about 2 percent of all taxpayers.
* The Question: Should the General Assembly approve a public constitutional referendum for a graduated income tax? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please. Also, “explain” doesn’t mean that you repeat somebody else’s talking points.
web polls
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Obamacare rollout begins here
Monday, Jul 22, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
Governor Pat Quinn today signed legislation that enacts a critical part of President Obama’s Affordable Care Act (ACA) by making Medicaid coverage available to all low-income adults in Illinois. Today’s action delivers on a major priority announced by Governor Quinn in his 2013 State of the State address and is part of his agenda to improve the health of the people of Illinois and increase access to quality health care. […]
Sponsored by State Senator Heather Steans (D-Chicago) and State Representative Sara Feigenholtz (D-Chicago), Senate Bill 26 will make Medicaid coverage available to adults with annual income below 138 percent of the federal poverty line, which is $15,860 for individuals and $21,408 for couples. The measure is expected to enroll 342,000 people by 2017. Currently, Medicaid is only available to children, their parents or guardians, adults with disabilities or seniors. Enrollment for the newly eligible population will begin Oct. 1 with coverage starting on Jan. 1.
Under the ACA, for the first three years, coverage of newly eligible adults will be 100 percent federally funded. The reimbursement rate will phase down to 90 percent by 2020. State officials estimate this will bring more than $12 billion in new federal funding to support the state’s health care system from 2014 to 2020. […]
Under Governor Quinn’s leadership, Illinois is also increasing access to health coverage through the Illinois Health Insurance Marketplace, another major feature of the ACA. The Marketplace, which also launches enrollment Oct. 1 with coverage starting Jan. 1, will be accessed through a user-friendly website where individuals, families and small businesses will be able to compare health care policies and premiums and purchase comprehensive health coverage. Those with income between 138 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level will receive subsidies on a sliding scale if they obtain coverage through the marketplace.
Discuss.
…Adding… From state Sen. Heather Steans…
Illinois’ share of the costs will total approximately $100 million per year in 2017-2019 and about $200 million in 2020 and each year thereafter.
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* I asked the comptroller’s office last week to explain the state’s pile of unpaid bills. This is most of what I received via e-mail on July 18th…
(W)e have a General Funds backlog here of $5 billion and we estimate there is another $1.8 billion in the HIRF. So the overall backlog has actually had an uptick to around $6.8 billion.
When the Comptroller gives backlog estimates, she is talking about the unpaid bills being held by the state - not using a technical term “past-due.”
We started the day with unpaid vouchers totaling $3.829 billion in the General Revenue Fund.
In addition to the $3.829 billion backlog in the General Revenue Fund, there is another $1.1170 billion in the School Funds for a total General Funds Backlog of $4.999 billion.
Our oldest regular voucher is 25 June 2013, those vouchers are 16 working days in arrears.
Our oldest medical voucher is 17 June 2013, those vouchers are 21 working days in arrears.
I was also told last week that “Nothing in GRF is older than 30 days.”
* But here’s an example of how the official backlog doesn’t mean that there are no extremely past-due obligations…
Though state aid to the public school system has dwindled in recent years, that alone does not paint the whole picture of districts’ financial woes. Some school districts are waiting on grant money that is in some cases is six months late.
Grants and other “categorical” funds for school functions such as transportation and special education are a part of the $6.8 billion backlog of unpaid bills in Illinois. Without the funds, districts are being forced to tap into other funds and put an even larger strain on their tax levies.
* Meanwhile, this is from a recent Washington Post editorial…
A new survey by scholars at Boston College finds that state and local pension plans have $3.8 trillion in unfunded liabilities, even assuming strong rates of return.
That sentence was eventually corrected…
A new survey by scholars at Boston College finds that state and local pension plans have $3.8 trillion in liabilities, $1 trillion of which is unfunded.
* The mistake was initially caught by Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, which puts the problem into perspective…
)(T)o put this in terms that may be understandable to Post readers, the unfunded liabilities are 0.22 percent of projected GDP over the next 30 years. And, as I noted in my earlier post, most state and local governments are already funding at levels that are consistent with making up this shortfall so there will no required tax increases or spending cuts to meet these future obligations.
* Paul Krugman added his two cents…
But how big is that $1 trillion anyway? It still sounds like a big number, doesn’t it? Dean tries to compare it with projected GDP, which is one way to scale it. Here’s another.
You see, the Boston College study doesn’t just estimate assets and liabilities; it also estimates the Annual Required Contribution, defined as
normal cost – the present value of the benefits accrued in a given year – plus a payment to amortize the unfunded liability
And it compares the ARC with actual contributions.
According to the survey, the ARC is currently about 15 percent of payroll; in reality, state and local governments are making only about 80 percent of the required contributions, so there’s a shortfall of 3 percent of payroll. Total state and local payroll, in turn, is about $70 billion per month, or $850 billion per year. So, nationwide, governments are underfunding their pensions by around 3 percent of $850 billion, or around $25 billion a year.
A $25 billion shortfall in a $16 trillion economy. We’re doomed!
OK, there are some questions about the accounting, mainly coming down to whether pension funds are assuming too high a rate of return on their investments. But even if the shortfall is several times as big as the initial estimate, which seems unlikely, this is just not a major national issue.
* It’s still obviously a local issue, however. But the constant comparisons between Detroit and Chicago/Illinois need to stop…
Elizabeth Foos, municipal credit analyst at Morningstar Inc., said Chicago is seeing a job rebound in areas such as a banking, financial services, transportation and health care.
By some gauges, Detroit barely functions. Foos said 40 percent of the city’s streetlights don’t work and more than half of property owners didn’t pay taxes owed in 2011.
Debt levels: Chicago’s property and sales tax revenues are improving with the economy and the city’s debt load is manageable. Foos has published reports on both cities indicating that if their debts are compared to the taxable value of their property, Detroit’s burden is more than twice that of Chicago.
Population: Detroit has lost 60 percent of its population since its 1950s peak. For the first decade of the 21st century, Detroit was down 25 percent. For the same time periods, Chicago lost 25 percent and 7 percent of its population.
* In other news, this is from a press release…
Illinois Department of Human Services (IDHS) Secretary Michelle R.B. Saddler today announced that the state was awarded a $4.1 million bonus for its effective administration of the Supplemental Food and Nutrition Program (SNAP). Illinois was recognized for its accuracy rate of 98.3 percent, which ranked sixth in the nation in fiscal year 2012.
That’s a pretty darned high accuracy rate, but not good enough for some folks…
Since Illinois has seen an explosion in the number of people receiving food stamps, even a slight error costs taxpayers millions.
In this instance, a mistake rate of less than 2 percent means $50 million is misspent.
That’s the hard truth behind the press release lauding Illinois for having a 98.3 percent accuracy rate for its Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program. […]
“The more people you add and the bigger the program gets, the more cumbersome it gets. The more difficult it gets to manage. And you have money being given away that shouldn’t be given away,” said Ted Dabrowski, vice President of policy for the Illinois Policy Institute.
Dabrowski’s point doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. The state has a pretty darned high accuracy rate as the program increases in size.
* Related…
* Illinois Comptroller Talks to Not-For-Profits About Budget: “We have taken all of our not for profits and we’ve moved them up. So when it comes to money in the till we’re going to pay you first,’ said the Comptroller.
* Sole buyer in state vendor program says business is good: Although VAP has been in the program since its inception, Reape said it has only really ramped up in the past six months. He said the company has purchased about $130 million worth of receivables from more than 100 vendors.
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* Another senseless death…
The brother-in-law of State Senator Napoleon Harris was murdered on Chicago’s South Side Thursday night.
Police say someone fired several shots at Andre Bunton as he sat in his car in the South Loop.
At least one hit him in the chest, killing him.
Friends say Bunton was driving a brand-new Mustang, and someone may have tried to carjack him.
* Sun-Times…
Sean Rogers, 36, Bunton’s friend for about 15 years, and Jonathan Harris said Bunton had been in Chicago visiting friends. He’d had dinner near where he was shot, both men said. Just before he was shot, Bunton was on the phone and the person he was speaking with heard a commotion and then the sound of gunfire, Jonathan Harris and Rogers said.
Jonathan Harris said Bunton had a brand new Mustang convertible and had the top down to enjoy the summer night.
“We think maybe somebody just tried to carjack him,” Jonathan Harris, 31, said. “He wasn’t the type of guy to be getting into it with people.”
Friends and family said they were shocked by what they called “senseless violence” and the death of a man soon to be a new father.
“Now you can’t even feel comfortable and safe anywhere,” Jonathan Harris said
It’s just heartbreaking.
* Luckily, nobody was seriously hurt during a Michigan Ave robbery….
Two visitors to Chicago received a rude welcome to the city Friday when one was robbed by a group of city teens and the other was punched while trying to help, officials said.
The two visitors – a 15-year-old Florida girl and a 51-year-old Michigan woman – were both walking on the Mag Mile Friday evening when the older woman was robbed of her iPhone by a group of eight juveniles, officials said. […]
They were about 15 feet behind when they noticed three boys “creeping toward” the women, and one of the boys appeared to gesture to someone else, said the 15-year-old Florida girl.
“All of a sudden seven more teens came and got close to the women,'’ she said.
Then she noticed one of the boys ripping an iPhone from a pocket of one of the three women, so forcefully that the victim said: “Give it back,'’ but they denied they had it, said the girl.
“The rest of them swarmed around her to disorient her,'’ and began to become more physical and push the women against a small metal fence around some shrubs, the girl said.
With a rush of adrenaline, the Florida girl said she decided to step in, against her mother’s wishes.”
* Meanwhile, Sen. Kirk backed off his mass arrest proposal…
Illinois U.S. Sen. Kirk made headlines at the end of May when he proposed arresting 18,000 members of the gangster disciples.
Representative Bobby Rush responded by telling the Chicago Sun-Times Kirk’s idea was “headline grabbing” and an “upper-middle-class, elitist white boy solution to a problem he knows nothing about.”
In the wake of the heated exchange of words, Kirk and Rush met and Kirk has pulled away from his anti-gang proposal.
“Bobby Rush has been somewhat correct in his criticism of me that a mass arrest all at once is not actually that practical,” Kirk said Thursday in an interview with WBEZ.
* Related…
* 4 dead, 9 wounded in city shootings
* The data behind Chicago’s gun crimes: While automatic and assault rifles have been the focus of federal legislative efforts, Chicago largely has a handgun problem. And that handgun problem goes well beyond the homicide numbers. Last year’s homicides totaled 516, with 441 of those resulting in a death by gunshot. There were still 11,886 gun related crimes in Chicago that didn’t end in a homicide.
* Some Municipalities Race To Pass Gun Bans As Deadline Looms
* By deadline, few Illinois towns pass assault weapons bans
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Who’s stunting now?
Monday, Jul 22, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* For a guy who constantly accuses Gov. Pat Quinn of staging political stunts, this sure looks like a stunt to me. AP…
Former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley is calling on Gov. Pat Quinn to hold around-the-clock talks to resolve the state’s $97 billion pension shortfall.
Daley will hold a news conference in Chicago on Monday to urge the governor to get more aggressive in trying to solve the worst-in-the-nation crisis. […]
Daley campaign spokesman Pete Giangreco told The Associated Press on Monday that “a confluence of issues” in the last week has increased the urgency for Illinois lawmakers to solve the state’s pension problem.
Giangreco says that includes the lowering of Chicago’s bond rate, Detroit’s bankruptcy and a higher Illinois unemployment rate.
Tossing in Detroit sure makes this look like a stunt to me.
* From last week…
After a bill-signing Thursday, Governor Pat Quinn would not comment on pensions. But his democratic primary opponent Bill Daley wants the governor to convene a 24-7, as-long-as-it-takes legislative leaders meeting.
“I mean, he’s got a big house in Springfield, the mansion. They could all just stay in there and just pound this thing out,” gubernatorial candidate William Daley said.
Apparently, Daley has not faith in the pension reform conference committee. I actually think they’re making some real progress. This issue needed to be taken away from the leaders’ direct control after the disastrous session-ending stalemate. Not that the leaders aren’t controlling things behind the scenes, mind you. I just think that the committee allows for a compromise that the tops couldn’t have agreed to during the spring session, due to the numerous personal and political conflicts between the leaders.
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Collins backs out of Metra probe
Monday, Jul 22, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* NBC 5…
The former federal prosecutor set to be appointed Monday to investigate allegations of wrongdoing at Metra has backed out, officials announced.
Metra’s board members said Friday it would bring in former Assistant U.S. Attorney Patrick Collins to investigate a scandal that centers around ousted Metra CEO Alex Clifford, but transit officials said Collins declined the job late Sunday.
“I am personally disappointed that Patrick Collins cannot undertake this endeavor,” Chairman Brad O’Halloran said in a statement. “I felt he would have done an excellent job. I remain committed to interviewing other lawyers with outstanding reputations and investigative skills, and to once again ask the board for its approval.”
* Tribune…
Late Sunday, Perkins Coie, Collins’ law firm, told Metra it had a “potential conflict” and that Collins, a partner, could not take on the case, according to a statement by Metra.
Metra’s board of directors was to have met this morning to discuss and potentially approve Collins’ hiring to conduct an investigation into the allegations raised by former Metra CEO Alex Clifford in an April 3 memo and at a July 17 Regional Transportation Authority meeting.
The statement did not specify what the conflict was.
In an e-mail to Metra from Collins quoted in the statement, Collins said that an “initial conflict check” last week came back clear, but that subsequently, Perkins Coie was “made aware of additional conflict issues.”
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Quinn isn’t the only one with serious baggage
Monday, Jul 22, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the New York Times’ national political correspondent on the day that Lisa Madigan announced she wouldn’t be running for governor…
On the surface, it sure looks that way. Gov. Quinn’s poll numbers are not good at all. But it’s not like he’s gonna just roll over and die for Daley. I wanted to see how vulnerable Daley could be to a full-on assault. So, we ran a poll.
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Gov. Pat Quinn is leading his sole Democratic primary rival, and challenger Bill Daley will have some serious problems with his blue chip résumé, according to a new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll.
The poll of 1,394 likely Democratic primary voters found Quinn leading Daley by five points, 38-33. That’s exactly where the two stood in a January poll. A June poll had Daley leading Quinn by a point, 38-37, but since then Quinn has made some popular moves, including vetoing legislative salaries out of the budget and using his veto powers to rewrite the concealed carry bill.
The most recent poll was taken July 17th, a day after Attorney General Lisa Madigan shook up the race by announcing her decision not to run for governor. It had a margin of error of +/- 2.62 percent. Cellphones made up 28 percent of those called.
28 percent of likely primary voters were undecided, suggesting that there is plenty of room for movement by either man and possibly an opening for someone else to enter the race.
According to the poll, Quinn leads among women by seven points, 38-31 and among men by two points, 40-38. Quinn has a huge 47-27 lead among African-Americans and a 45-36 lead among Latinos. Daley leads 37-35 with white Democrats. Daley leads by only a point in the suburban collar counties and by six points Downstate. Quinn has a 15-point lead in Chicago and a 9-point lead in Cook County.
But a question crafted to mimic a campaign attack shows a potentially killer Daley weakness. Daley was the Midwest chairman of JPMorgan Chase, a “too big to fail” bank when it received $25 billion in federal bailout money, according to the CNN Money website. The company also agreed to settle with the federal government on federal mortgage fraud and wrongful foreclosure charges.
Because I wanted to see how Democratic voters would react to a likely campaign attack, the question posed to them was neither fair nor balanced. Campaigns do this sort of thing all the time to see where their weaknesses are, so it’s not a radical concept by any means.
Daley has several very big negatives, according to people in both parties who have polled or focus grouped the race. His family’s Chicago legacy is one of Daley’s biggest liabilities and, I’m told, the easiest to understand. His bank’s investment in the hugely controversial Chicago parking meter deal is another big hit. Daley’s lead role in the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement doesn’t play well with labor union members. But after consulting several political pros, some of whom have been, are or may eventually be involved in attacking Daley, I decided to go with a question about JPMorgan Chase.
It is, as I said, not a fair question, but with Gov. Quinn undoubtedly planning a brutal populist assault on Daley, it’s probably close to something you’ll eventually see in an ad, although I didn’t include the fact that Daley’s bank bought a fleet of new jets a few weeks after receiving its federal bailout, nor could I use faces and voices of Illinoisans who were wrongly foreclosed upon.
“Would you be more likely, or less likely to vote for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate who ran a major bank that received federal bailout money, foreclosed on large numbers of Illinois homeowners and engaged in predatory subprime mortgage lending?” voters were asked.
Unsurprisingly, that question moved the needle in a big way. According to the poll, a whopping 73 percent of Democrats were less likely to vote for the candidate. Results like that indicate the issue has major traction. Just 16 percent said it didn’t make any difference and another 11 percent said it made them more likely (possibly a negative reaction to the harsh nature of a question about a fellow party member).
The question proved “devastatingly effective,” said pollster Gregg Durham. The responses “will certainly give Mr. Quinn a political harpoon that could cause significant damage.”
Yes, Gov. Quinn has serious problems. That’s why the incumbent is only receiving the potential votes of 38 percent of his own party members. The June poll found that a mere 33 percent of Democrats approved of his job performance, for crying out loud.
Incumbents with lousy poll numbers like Quinn have no other choice but to attack, attack, attack. And Daley will definitely provide a target rich environment for the governor.
Subscribers have full crosstabs.
* Of course, Quinn won’t be the only one on the attack…
“On the day after, the unemployment numbers say we’re the second-worst in the country,” Daley said of Quinn’s construction tour. “He can cut all the ribbons and dig all the shovels and govern by press conferences or stunts … but that doesn’t make for a game plan or results.”
Daley said Quinn’s method of operating is familiar. “That’s what you’ve seen in the former governor (Blagojevich), and this governor — press conferences and governing by event and stunts and stuff like that. That’s not how you govern as a governor or as a leader, and that’s why nothing gets done.” […]
“He was (Blagojevich’s) lieutenant governor for six years. He ran for re-election with him. If (Blagojevich) was so evil and bad from a policy perspective and a government perspective and bad on the political perspective … why did he run for re-election with the guy?” Daley asked, adding that Quinn has been part of 12 years of failed leadership atop Illinois government.
In October 2006, months after it was revealed that federal investigators were investigating “endemic hiring fraud” in Blagojevich’s administration, Quinn defended Blagojevich and said the then-governor has “always been a person who’s honest and one of integrity.” […]
Daley said, “(Quinn) didn’t think enough of himself or the people of Illinois to say that this (relationship) isn’t working with this governor, ‘I quit’?”
Discuss.
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Reader comments closed for the weekend
Friday, Jul 19, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* True heroism…
“The woman was ablaze. I don’t know if she jumped off the tractor or fell off, but she was a human torch,” Norman Davis, of Pembroke Township, said about a rural Hoopeston woman whose farm tractor was smashed by a semitruck on Illinois Route 1 about 7:30 a.m. June 11.
Davis, a guard at the Danville Correctional Center, and fellow guard Austin Rhodes, of Hoopeston, received rare commendations Wednesday from Illinois Department of Corrections Director S.A. Godinez for their life-saving response to the fiery crash.
Rhodes was following the semi, with Davis right behind him, all doing about 60 mph, when the semi hit the tractor as it was being turned left, two miles south of Hoopeston. The tractor was smashed into a concrete bridge railing and burst into flames, setting the driver on fire.
“Rhodes and I were out of our vehicles at the same time and running towards the woman,” Davis said. “We got there and naturally started patting her to put the fire out.” Their bare hands were all they had for the purpose.
While they sat briefly, trying to keep her awake, Davis spotted the semi driver under his cab, then pulled him to the side of the road and away from the fire.
And there’s more, so go read the whole thing.
Wow.
* From my former intern Barton Lorimor…
If I am allowed any kind of special request: my good friend and former Paul Simon Public Policy Institute boss Matt Baughman got a big promotion at SIU today. Going from being David’s lieutenant to Assistant to the Chancellor, which is essentially the campus COS. Very very good man and loyal reader. Any chance he could get a shout out on Comments Closed?
Consider it done. Congrats, Matt.
* Everybody, try to chill this weekend…
My time of year
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* House Speaker Michael Madigan has sent a letter to Legislative Inspector General Tom Homer and the bipartisan Legislative Ethics Commission asking it to investigate the Metra allegations. Madigan denied that he violated any “applicable law or ethical rule.”
Click the image for a larger view…
Inspector General Homer announced yesterday that he was already looking into the matter.
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* According to NBC5, Rep. Monique Davis will hold a press conference at 2 o’clock to discuss her comments this week on a Detroit radio station. Davis, as you already know, claimed she’d heard people say that Chicago cops may be behind some of the murders of her city’s African-American kids. When pressed, she said she didn’t know if the cops were or were not killing kids.
You can watch the 2 o’clock presser by clicking here. I will probably be out of the office by then, so help us live blog the event in comments.
* Rep. Davis has easily survived several serious Democratic primary challenges over the years. She’s infamous for her outrageous remarks and she usually loves the attention. We’ll have to see what happens today.
*** UPDATE *** Rep. Davis told reporters she does not believe that the police are behind the murders. She also said many of her friends are policemen.
Rep. Davis, however, adamantly refused to apologize.
...Adding… Her claims that she didn’t say the cops were behind the killings is a lie…
When WBBM asked Davis if she thinks it’s possible that police are killing children, she said, “I don’t know. I don’t know that they are, and I don’t know that they aren’t, since no one’s been arrested. We don’t know who’s doing it.”
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You just can’t make this stuff up
Friday, Jul 19, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It’s so hot, Tio Hardiman thinks he can be governor...
Former CeaseFire Illinois director Tio Hardiman has set his sights on a much higher title.
The 50-year-old community organizer said he is “seriously considering” running for the Democratic nomination in 2014 for governor.
“Some people may think I am crazy, but I think I would make a great governor. Everywhere I go from Chicago to Springfield people have been coming up to me asking me to run for governor, and I may just do that,” Hardiman said. […]
“Before a decision like this can be made, I need to have polls done to see what my chances are for winning. I think Governor Quinn is OK, but it is time for a change,” Hardiman said.
* Progress Illinois has the background…
Hardiman’s announcement comes about a month after he was arrested for allegedly punching and kicking his wife. His wife dropped the misdemeanor domestic battery charge earlier this month.
Well, he does need a new job.
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Rauner’s burn rate
Friday, Jul 19, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz…
Citizens for Rauner Inc., the candidate spent considerably more in the past three months than he took in, dropping a cool $1.5 million on top of the $91,000 he’d spent in March. […]
The bottom line: Mr. Rauner has just $642,001 left of the $2,138,690 he’s raised — not counting $39,000 in debts.
He’s spent $840K on advertising, including $20K on digital ads, almost $160K on payroll, another $170K on consulting, about $26K on legal services, another $7K on health insurance, around $10K on direct mail, a substantial $60K on office rent, over $126K on marketing, and $36K on surveys. He also paid a $315 fine to the State Board of Elections.
Startup costs can be high for a first-time candidate, but that’s still a very big nut to make every month.
The problem for Rauner is that he has to keep advertising or he’s gonna fall off the public’s radar screen.
* Back to Hinz…
…”burn rate” is a concern for every campaign, even those whose candidates can, if needed, just write a check.
American and Illinois politics is filled with examples of wealthy men in search of an office who didn’t end up satisfying anyone except consultants and other hangers-on in search of a big payday.
Ron Gidwitz and his high-dollar Rolodex have apparently arrived just in time.
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Madigan foe to probe Metra allegations
Friday, Jul 19, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Patrick Collins has a well-known dislike for House Speaker Michael Madigan which surfaced repeatedly during his days chairing the governor’s’s reform commission. So, this should get interesting…
Former federal prosecutor Patrick Collins will perform an independent investigation and make recommendations concerning issues raised by former Metra CEO Alex Clifford in his April 3, 2013, memo and at the July 17 RTA hearing, Metra announced today.
Collins will also investigate Metra’s hiring and contract policies, the agency said in a news release.
Collins will report to the full Metra board in public session within 90 days. As part of his work, Collins will follow up on Metra’s initial review and investigate new allegations made by Clifford, Metra said.
* If anything, nobody in their right mind can now say that Metra Chairman Brad O’Halloran is soft-pedaling the scandal with this move. Collins is relentless…
“Patrick Collins has an unquestioned reputation for integrity, honesty and fighting corruption,” O’Halloran said in a statement. “I look forward to an unflinching report which makes recommendations that help the agency restore confidence with riders, taxpayers and the communities we serve.”
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Fine lines and massive layoffs
Friday, Jul 19, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’m just gonna outright steal an Eric Zorn post in its entirety…
From the Tribune story about the latest test scores from the Chicago Public Schools reflecting the percentage of pupils performing at or above grade level:
Charter schools did not show an increase in the number of students meeting or exceeding standards, while neighborhood schools improved by 2.2 points.
From the Sun-Times story:
Charters citywide have been performing at about the same level as regular CPS neighborhood schools over the past several years and just slightly worse this year at 50.4 percent overall compared to CPS’ 52.6 percent, according to the district.
And we’re all in for charter schools because….?
Good question.
* More…
CPS students — magnet, charter and turnaround schools alike — sat for the tests in early March, weeks before CPS announced it would ask the board to permanently close a record 54 schools, 48 of which were approved.
CPS officials said the composite scores of the closing schools lagged 12 percentage points behind the schools set to receive children, validating the district’s claim they’re sending students to better schools.
Of the 48 closing, 23 improved, 23 declined, and one remained the same. The 48th is a high school program whose students don’t take the ISAT.
* And…
Mayor Rahm Emanuel, speaking at an unrelated event Tuesday, was quick to link ISAT performance to his longer school day initiative, saying the greatest growth under CPS’ recalculation of past data was at the schools that first adopted the longer day two years ago.
* Meanwhile…
Chicago Public Schools officials announced late Thursday that 2,113 teachers and other employees would be laid off Friday, largely due to a giant pension obligation increase that’s straining the system.
“In fiscal year ‘14 we’re facing a historic deficit of $1 billion that is driven primarily by a $400 million increase in our annual teacher pension payments,” said CPS spokesman Becky Carroll. “Absent pension reform in Springfield, we have very few options available to us to close that gap, and that has resulted in bringing this crisis to the doorsteps of our schools.” […]
[Alicia Winckler, who is in charge of human resources for CPS] attributed the layoffs of 815 support staff, 398 tenured teachers and 510 non-tenured teachers to budgetary decisions made by principals. School closings account for the layoffs of 68 support staff employees and 194 food staff employees, she said. And changes in school enrollments account for the layoffs of 43 tenured teachers and 85 non-tenured teachers, Winckler said.
* And…
The latest layoffs… are in addition to 855 employees — including 420 teachers — who were laid off last month as a result of the district’s decision to close 49 elementary schools and a high school program. […]
The district again blamed the lack of pension reform for many of its fiscal woes, noting that pension payments are growing this fiscal year by an additional $400 million. The layoffs were the result of “budgetary decisions made by principals or changes in enrollment,” the district said in a statement.
“Absent pension reform in Springfield, we had very few options available to us to close that gap,” Carroll said. “This year, given the magnitude and the size of this deficit, and the fact that there was no pension reform reached in Springfield, this has made it to the doorsteps of our schools.”
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Gutierrez, Davis backing Quinn over Daley
Friday, Jul 19, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Lynn Sweet…
Gov. Pat Quinn, facing a Democratic primary challenge from former White House chief of staff Bill Daley, on Thursday picked up the backing of Rep. Luis Gutierrez and Rep. Danny Davis, endorsers with followings among Hispanic and African American voters.
The rest of the Illinois Democratic delegation here I contacted on Thursday—including Sen. Dick Durbin—are not taking sides at this early stage in the 2014 primary, heating up with the news last week that Attorney General Lisa Madigan would not be jumping into the contest.
“I was staying out of it when there were three,” Rep. Mike Quigley told me. “I never do it (endorse) before petitions are filed.”
Gutierrez, who is part of the bi-partisan House “Group of Seven” negotiating an immigration legislative package here said Quinn’s help on immigration issues was a factor in his decision.
“I don’t believe that I am taking sides when I support the incumbent governor of the State of Illinois,” Gutierrez told me. “The incumbent governor of Illinois has a very rich history of support for issues that are very dear and important to me. Amongst those issues are immigration, but also education and economic development. […]
Davis, in backing Quinn told me, “I represent the governor, he lives in my congressional district. So one could not expect me to do anything but support one of my constitutients.”
Rep. Bobby Rush told me at some point he will make an endorsement—later on, after he hears more about plans to curb urban violence and create jobs.
As Sweet reports, the rest of the delegation appears to be remaining neutral.
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Today’s quote
Friday, Jul 19, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Rep. Monique Davis (D-Chicago) told a Detroit radio station this week that she’s been hearing some Chicago police officers may be involved with some of the killings on her city’s South Side. I kid you not…
“I’m going to tell you what some suspicions have been, and people have whispered to me: they’re not sure that black people are shooting all of these children,” Davis said. “There’s some suspicion – and I don’t want to spread this, but I’m just going to tell you what I’ve been hearing – they suspect maybe the police are killing some of these kids.”
When WBBM asked Davis if she thinks it’s possible that police are killing children, she said, “I don’t know. I don’t know that they are, and I don’t know that they aren’t, since no one’s been arrested. We don’t know who’s doing it.”
Chicago Police Department spokesman Adam Collins responded to Representative Davis’ comments:
“The men and women of Chicago Police Department work tirelessly every day to keep our city safe. These comments are so outrageous and baseless, that they do not merit any comment.”
Raw audio…
Discuss.
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Four more years!
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* John Kass has been writing pretty much the same thing forever as he did in his June 16th column…
Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan has already made it plain what he wants. The political boss of the state wants his daughter Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan installed as governor of Madiganistan.
What father wouldn’t like to make his daughter the governor? It’s way cooler than giving her a pony, but maybe a bit messier.
* After AG Madigan decided to run for reelection, Kass simply doubled down…
Now Lisa Madigan wants to avoid the street fighting during this election cycle, be anointed AG for another term, and let others do the heavy lifting to solve the state’s terrible fiscal mess. And when it’s all over, she’ll waltz in on glass slippers and pick up a scepter.
He’s consistent, at least.
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* From a Sun-Times editorial…
Houses of worship don’t just accommodate religious gatherings. They also are places where deeply troubled people come to get help. If for no other reason than that, they should be off limits to guns.
Unfortunately, a state law rushed through in the closing days of the spring legislative session that allows the concealed carrying of guns also makes it legal to bring those firearms into places of worship. That’s an alarming prospect that needs to be rectified as quickly as possible.
State Sen. Dan Kotowski (D-Park Ridge) has introduced a legislative amendment that would bar concealed firearms from any building or parking area under the control of a church, synagogue, temple, mosque or other place of worship.
At a press conference on Monday, Philip L. Blackwell, senior pastor of the First United Methodist Church at the Chicago Temple, pointed out that religious workers deal daily with people who are desperate, upset, despairing or on the very of edge a breakdown when they come in for help. Allowing loaded concealed weapons into that environment puts the lives of the staff at risk. Why shouldn’t those workers get the same protection as, say, casino employees, who are safeguarded under the new law? […]
Rev. Liz Munoz, an associate priest at St. James Cathedral, said concealed weapons undermine the very idea of a place of worship, especially in a neighborhood plagued by gunfire such as Little Village, where she lives.
“In these communities, we need a place where people know they can come in and be cared for and loved, and not worried about who is carrying a concealed weapon,” Munoz said.
Those are all decent points. However, there’s a very serious problem with that side of the argument.
* One of the cases used by the 7th Circuit to toss out Illinois’ public carry ban was Shepard v. Madigan.
The case specifically involved an elderly woman who was volunteering at a church when she was assaulted…
…when Mrs. Shepard was working at her church on September 28,2009, she was unarmed. While peaceably performing her duties as treasurer of the church, her life was changed forever when she became the victim of a heinous and unconscionable criminal assault and battery.
Despite her being licensed in two states to do so, Mrs. Shepard was not carrying a handgun on her person, and therefore was unable to defend herself, when she was viciously attacked and brutalized at the hands of a six foot-three-inch 245 pound man with a violent past and a criminal record.
Mrs. Shepard would have been carrying a handgun at the time of this heinous attack had the aforementioned Illinois statutes not prevented her from doing so.
The disturbing post-attack photo…
So, banning carry in a church likely would’ve set off another round of court battles. And since Shepard’s case was used in the 7th Circuit’s decision, a church carry ban would’ve probably been a real problem for the new law.
…Adding… Churches are, of course, allowed to ban carrying on their property, unless they don’t own the property, which was also an objection raised in the editorial.
* Meanwhile, AG Madigan has filed a new motion…
Under the law passed last week, Illinois State Police have about six months to set up a concealed-carry program before accepting applications. Police then have 90 days to process the forms.
Gun-rights advocate Mary Shepard and the Illinois State Rifle Association say that’s unconstitutionally too long and want an East St. Louis U.S. District Judge to allow immediate concealed carry.
But Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s office argued in a filing Thursday that Shepard needs to file a new complaint spelling out why the law’s time allowances are unreasonable.
*** UPDATE *** Shepard has responded to the Madigan filing. Click here to read it.
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Will LMadigan’s withdrawal lead to a GOP win?
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From an unsigned analysis on the WTVO/WQRF Eyewitness News website…
1. The Democrats just lost their strongest candidate: This is the most obvious reason. Say what you will about Pat Quinn and Bill Daley, recent polls showed Madigan to be the clear favorite for Democrats. Yes, her father remaining as Speaker of the House would have been an issue for her opponents and many voters. Even with that, however, Madigan was still the frontrunner before she decided not to run at all.
2. Madigan’s exit leaves the Republicans with the stronger group of candidates: When State Senator Bill Brady lost last time, it was by a razor-thin margin, and Gov. Quinn has done little to elevate his numbers since. Brady faces an even tougher fight this time around to just get his party’s nomination, facing off not only against Dillard, who he defeated by a couple of hundred votes in the 2010 primary, but also popular State Treasurer Dan Rutherford. Even businessman Bruce Rauner adds more gravitas to this race because he is going to spend significant money to win it. Whoever of the four emerges will be a legitimate battle-tested contender.
3. Madigan’s exit also makes the Republican race more high profile: Brady-Dillard-Rutherford-Rauner will generate more buzz, not only because there are more candidates spending more money to get the attention of voters, but also because it’s a race which will be fought statewide. Quinn-Daley doesn’t quite have the same appeal, and will be centered mainly around Chicago voters up to the primary. There is a long gap between the March primary and November election, but don’t underestimate the political momentum from winning a hard fought primary in a high visibility race. That’s partly how Barack Obama became President in 2008.
4. Pension reform is a Democratic Party problem: It is the #1 issue in Illinois, and only Democrats can solve it. Even if the Democratic legislature passes a bill and the Governor signs it, questions revolving around what’s in it and what took them so long will dog Quinn and put Daley in the uncomfortable position of having to constantly criticize those in his own party. Madigan’s exit puts less pressure on her father to keep pushing for real reform. Any way you slice it, it’s an issue that helps Republicans.
5. Democrats are perceived as having shown poor stewardship: This campaign will be run against a backdrop of a Democratic Governor and a veto-proof Democratic legislative majority in both houses. Hey Illinois voters, how’s that working for you? The commonly held belief by residents that this state is poorly run gives independent voters tremendous incentive to seek change through a divided government by electing a Republican Governor.
“Madigan’s exit puts less pressure on her father to keep pushing for real reform.” Um, wasn’t he tubing pension reform to help Lisa? I’m confused.
Anyway, not everything was off base. I agree with at least some of it, depending, of course, how the GOP primary plays out. Either way, though, counting on Pat Quinn to lose is a dangerous and foolish game.
Discuss.
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Question of the day
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Mark Brown went through a whole slew of potential gubernatorial candidates this week…
It’s definitely late to be launching a campaign, but it’s not too late for the right candidate — someone who would start with good name recognition, have the resources to make up for it or best of all, have a built-in constituency that would give them a plausible path to victory.
Former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman, who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2010, is one possibility.
Hoffman just announced last week that he would not be a candidate for attorney general, attributing his decision to wanting to spend more time with his young children.
It would be difficult to backtrack on that reasoning so soon, but Madigan’s decision to seek re-election has changed the political landscape enough that all contenders are going to be reconsidering their options.
I left a phone message Tuesday asking Hoffman if he was interested in running. He deflected with a tongue-in-cheek email asking if I wanted to be his campaign manager. I responded by warning that I was going to put his name in the mix unless he shut me down. Never heard back after that.
I’m not sure that a losing Democratic primary has provided him with lots of built-in name ID, but whatever. On and on he went, listing one person after another who won’t be running for governor any time soon. Also, note that this question is not about whether you want it to happen, it’s about whether it actually could happen.
* The Question: Do you think it’s too late for a credible Democratic gubernatorial candidate to run? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please, including who you think it would be if you answer “No.”
survey service
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Chicago bond rating lowered three notches
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Uh-oh…
Moody’s Investors Service has slashed Chicago’s general obligation and sales tax ratings by three notches to A3 from Aa3 due to the city’s large and growing pension liabilities and related budget troubles.
The move affects $8.2 billion of Chicago’s general obligation and sales tax debt, Moody’s said in a statement. It will make it more expensive for the city to borrow money, and Moody’s said it may further downgrade the ratings if conditions don’t improve.
“The current administration has made efforts to reduce costs and achieve operational efficiencies, but the magnitude of the city’s pension obligations has precluded any meaningful financial improvements,” Moody’s said.
The credit rating agency added that its negative outlook is based on the “dramatic spike in annual pension payments scheduled to take effect in the 2015 budget year.”
Moody’s said it expects the payments “will place material strain on the city’s operating budget.”
* Meanwhile, Marc Joffe makes more assertions about the state’s bond ratings…
Noting that Illinois has not defaulted on a bond since the 1840s, Pallasch and Sinsheimer said Illinois bonds are safe investments. Marc Joffe, a San Francisco consultant, agrees.
“I think people have vastly inflated estimates of how risky Illinois bonds are,” says Joffe, who once worked for Moody’s Investors Service, which shares Standard & Poor’s pessimistic views on Illinois’ bonds. “There’s not a lot of distance between Illinois and junk (bond status).”
If he were doing the math – and he has – Joffe said that he would rate Illinois at between AA and AAA, which is the highest possible grade. In a paper published last month, Joffe compared Illinois with Indiana, which has a high credit rating from Wall Street, and found that while bonds issued in the Land of Lincoln are riskier than bonds issued by the Hoosier State, the risk in both cases is negligible.
He likens the difference to the odds of dying in a plane crash versus the odds of dying in an automobile accident. Traveling in a a car is riskier, he says, but the odds are so remote that virtually no one takes them into account when deciding how to get from Point A to Point B.
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Berrios firings costing taxpayers
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* That half million dollars could pay for a whole lot of services…
County taxpayers are on the hook for the $529,000 to be paid to 11 employees who were fired for unlawful political reasons by Cook County Assessor Joe Berrios after he took office in 2010.
County commissioners approved the payout during Wednesday’s regularly scheduled board meeting. None singled out Berrios for criticism at the meeting, but some said county officeholders need a better understanding of the rules that curb political hiring.
* Background…
Berrios, who doubles as county Democratic chairman, took over as assessor in December 2010. The unabashedly old-school politician fired a slew of employees and brought in his own team, which included his son, his sister and a trusted lawyer from his previous job at the Board of Review.
Asked Tuesday about the case, Berrios said he thought the workers he dismissed held policy positions for which it is permissible to hire, promote and fire for political reasons. “I thought they were all at-will employees,” he said.
A federal court monitor assigned to monitor the assessor’s office as a part of the long-running Shakman case, which bars taking politics into account for most city and county hiring, saw it differently.
The court official, Clifford Meacham, recommended that 11 people be paid between $1,000 to $95,000 as part of an agreement Berrios entered into centering on new hiring, firing and promotion rules and regulations to be overseen by the court.
* Whatever the case, Berrios is now getting tax bills out on time, the first time that’s happened in over three decades, so I’m not sure that this action suggested by the Tribune would be a wise move…
Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, county board members: Take the money out of Berrios’ budget. Force him to cut $529,000 in spending. Start with the line item for his $125,000 salary. He might actually have to lay off some workers. Even some named Berrios.
* And here we go again…
The dispute over the county’s anti-nepotism laws surfaced again this week when county Inspector General Patrick Blanchard revealed in a report that county Recorder of Deeds Karen Yarbrough has hired her niece.
Although not named, the Tribune determined she is Chloe Pedersen, who as legal and labor counsel to Yarbrough makes $114,622 a year. That’s more than Yarbrough’s salary, which is $105,000.
Blanchard recommended the niece be fired, but Yarbrough said the inspector general had no authority over her — the same argument Berrios has made. Yarbrough said she hired her niecebecause she had “the best qualifications. . . . I think most people recognize it’s important to have someone you know and trust as your legal counsel.”
Wouldn’t a simple solution be the county board stepping in and declaring who has authority over whom?
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* From a press release…
Illinois added 9,000 private sector jobs in June and the unemployment rate inched upward to 9.2 percent, according to preliminary data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES). Illinois added 57,700 private sector jobs compared to June 2012. The data is seasonally adjusted.
“Continued private sector job growth suggests business leaders expect that consumers will feel better about spending money and they must prepare for that increase in demand,” IDES Director Jay Rowell said. “The unemployment rate is not surprising given the volatility of that measurement and that the same summertime movement occurred in 2012 and 2011.”
Illinois has added +237,900 private sector jobs since January 2010 when job growth returned following nearly two years of consecutive monthly declines. Leading growth sectors are Professional and Business Services (+101,600); Education and Health Services (+60,400); and Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+39,300). Government has lost the most jobs since January 2010, down -36,300. […]
The rate’s three-month moving average, which smoothes volatility, fell -0.1 to 9.2 percent in June. In June 2013, the number of unemployed increased slightly for the first time since March, up +1,600 (+0.3 percent) to 600,700. Total unemployed has fallen -151,500 ( 20.1 percent) since early 2010 when the state unemployment rate peaked at 11.3 percent for the months of January and February.
* Biggest job losses were in government. Click the pic for a larger image…
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Cross to stay put
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This is old news for subscribers…
Illinois House Republican Leader Tom Cross of Oswego won’t run for attorney general, saying Democrat Lisa Madigan’s re-election plans have changed the “dynamic” of the race.
Cross’ decision to stick to his job as the top GOP member of the state House likely puts to rest a race to succeed him that at one point included at least four suburban lawmakers. Madigan had been considering a run for Illinois governor.
“I remain committed to the Illinois House Republican Caucus to provide leadership and information regarding the tough issues we face in this state while continuing to raise money and recruit candidates for the upcoming election,” Cross said in a statement late Wednesday.
“When the attorney general was considering a career change, many people approached me to consider running for that position,” Cross said. “Obviously, that dynamic has changed. I will remain committed to serving as the leader of the House Republican caucus.”
The rules don’t allow for a coup, so he’s in until at least the end of his term.
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** Ironically enough, Rep. Jim Durkin appeared with Cross at a Pat Quinn bill-signing event today. He said he’s still running for Leader.
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Another pathetic fundraising report
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I thought state Rep. Darlene Senger was serious about running for Congress. Her financial report doesn’t inspire much confidence…
Only about $18,000 separated the second-quarter fundraising efforts of Republicans Darlene Senger of Naperville and Chris Balkema of Channahon in their bid to take on Democratic U.S. Rep. Bill Foster.
Senger, a state lawmaker, raised about $82,500 in the last three months, and Balkema, a Grundy County board member, raised about $64,600. Ian Bayne, a private investigator from Aurora, didn’t file a report, according to federal election records.
Foster raised about $275,000 in the quarter. You gotta wonder how much the NRCC really has this race in its sights. From April 15…
Some hard-core recruiting efforts have been underway to entice state Rep. Darlene Senger to make a run against recently sworn-in Bill Foster (D-Ill) of the 11th congressional district.
National Republican Campaign Committee Chair Greg Walden and Senger had dinner in Chicago on Friday, according to a knowledgeable Republican source.
That followed a week of meeting with some top Republicans in Washington last week.
And yet she’s only raised $82.5K since then? What the heck?
* Meanwhile…
A centrist Republican group is joining with former senator Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) in an effort to raise and spend $8 million to defend centrist GOP incumbents in 2014 congressional primaries.
Main Street Advocacy and its allied super PAC, Defending Main Street, will take a step forward after playing a minimal role in recent elections. The move comes in direct response to the growing influence of conservative outside groups like the Club for Growth, which the head of Main Street denounced Tuesday as a “cancer” on the GOP. […]
The head of the Main Street organization, former congressman Steven LaTourette (R-Ohio), said it has already raised $2.5 million toward its goal and that he and Snowe will barnstorm the country together to raise the rest. The group will make expenditures from both its nonprofit issue advocacy arm and its super PAC, allowing donors to contribute to either (nonprofit donors do not need to be disclosed). […]
LaTourette said his group will seek to play in a limited number of races where it can have a bigger influence. He mentioned potential Club for Growth targets including Senate candidate Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) — who has been involved with the group — and Reps. Aaron Schock (R-Ill.) and Susan Brooks (R-Ind.), along with Reps. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) and David Joyce (R-Ohio). Joyce holds the seat LaTourette retired from last year.
* The Club for Growth’s “Primary My Congressman” website lists Schock and Congressman Adam Kinzinger as targets, but not Davis. The Davis folks don’t think they’re on the ultimate target list.
* In other news, state Rep. Mike Bost has already filed paperwork with the FEC for a run, but he says a formal Congressional announcement against Bill Enyart is still a couple weeks off…
But why would a legislator who would be considered a heavy favorite to recapture his House seat in 2014, think about running in a congressional district that has put many a Republican in early retirement?
“For the children,” he simply put.
“In serving in the Illinois House these last several years, I have come to see how much influence the federal government has — and can have — on our lives. I now have nine grandchildren and I want to make sure that my children, my grandchildren and the children and grandchildren of everyone in my district has a bright future.”
Bost said his decision will be made no later than July 29.
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So, where’s the crime?
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Alex Clifford, the former Metra CEO who was sent packing with a huge golden parachute, claimed in an internal April memo that he was being forced out because he had…
“not acceded to requests for unlawful politically-motivated employment actions”
* Pretty much everybody in the Chicago media pounced on this as evidence that House Speaker Michael Madigan, who’d asked for a raise for one of his ward heelers, had done something illegal and could be the next Illinois politician to be sent to prison. The resulting media frenzy was intense. But then Clifford testified to the RTA yesterday. Chicago Tribune…
Clifford said he does not believe Madigan broke any laws by making the request.
* Greg Hinz…
Nothing illegal occurred, Mr. Clifford said. But that’s only because he rejected requests for jobs and other personnel treats from politicians, ultimately at the cost of his own job.
“It was not illegal unless I actually did what they wanted me to do,” Mr. Clifford said. Instead, “I just let it roll off,” confident that members of the Metra board — at least most of them — were with him.
The guy’s supervisor had also recommended a raise, so I’m not sure why giving him a raise would be illegal. Maybe I’m wrong here, so please enlighten me in comments if I am.
* But there is now a legislative probe…
As a sign scrutiny is increasing, Thomas Homer, the General Assembly’s legislative inspector general, said Wednesday he was investigating allegations made by Clifford that he was ousted for refusing to go along with political pressure by Speaker Michael Madigan and other lawmakers over jobs and contracts at the agency in 2012.
“I have nothing to hide,” said a defiant Clifford who sat just a few feet from Metra administrators. “I refused to accede to the requests of some very powerful politicians in Illinois.”
Metra Chairman Brad O’Halloran fired back with a laundry list of complaints about Clifford: hiring senior executives without informing the board and offering excessive benefits, delaying the installation of security cameras, declining ridership, hiring expensive consultants and failing to address safety concerns. […]
When he asked about his contract renewal early in 2013, Clifford said O’Halloran responded, “I need to have a meeting with Mr. Madigan to see what damage you caused to our funding (prospects).”
But O’Halloran countered: “I never made that statement. I have no relationship with Speaker Madigan.”
* Related…
* Mark Brown: No heroes or whistleblowers in Metra mess — but plenty of hooey
* Editorial: Metra & its hush money
* Editorial: Metra board should resign
* Ex-Metra CEO: Mike Madigan’s requests show ‘a moral and ethical flaw’
40 Comments
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Salt on the wound
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We discussed this a bit yesterday…
Dillard’s campaign filings show he still owes $250,000 from his 2010 effort, mostly to Ron Gidwitz. Gidwitz, himself a 2006 candidate for the GOP nomination for governor, was Dillard’s campaign chairman in 2010 and is former CEO of Helene Curtis.
Dillard said he does not have to pay back Gidwitz.
* Well, Bernie followed up….
A debt from state Sen. Kirk Dillard’s 2010 GOP primary campaign for governor that he said last week he did not have to pay back is still “an outstanding obligation,” according to Ron Gidwitz, who is owed close to $200,000.
“Fundamentally, we haven’t spoken about it,” Gidwitz said Wednesday after his new role in the 2014 campaign — as finance chairman for Republican Bruce Rauner — was announced. “The issue is unresolved.”
Dillard’s campaign records show that his debt to Gidwitz tops $185,000, and another $12,000 is owed to Riverbend Industries, which Gidwitz said he owns.
Gidwitz, the former CEO of Helene Curtis who also is chairman of the Boys and Girls Clubs of America and has had government roles including chairman of the State Board of Education, said the money had nothing to do with his decision to back Winnetka venture capitalist and new candidate Rauner.
“I’m all about winning,” Gidwitz said. “The man has the fire in his belly. He has focused on what I think are the fundamental issues of the campaign, which are the budget, pension system, taxes and jobs. … He understands the issues. He’s dealt with many of them in his career.”
Gidwitz is the go-to behind the scenes money guy for Illinois Republicans. His defection, as I said yesterday, is a huge blow to Dillard’s campaign.
* Meanwhile, I told you a while back that James Liautaud contributed $1,000 to Bruce Rauner’s campaign late last month. Well, Treasurer Rutherford called to point out that was the father of the Jimmy John’s founder, and not Rutherford’s friend.
75 Comments
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Circle Interchange work to begin
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Well, at least one huge Illinois bottleneck will finally be alleviated. From a press release…
The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) project will reconstruct the interchange at the heart of Chicago that links the I-90/94 (Dan Ryan Expressway) to the south, I-290 (Eisenhower Expressway) to the west, Congress Parkway to the east and I-90/94 (Kennedy Expressway) to the north. According to estimates by transportation planners, the improvements will reduce traffic delays by at least 50 percent, save drivers five million hours annually and the improved traffic flow will lead to a savings of 1.6 million gallons of fuel per year. […]
The Circle Interchange was constructed between 1958 and 1962, and has outlived its original design life. The Federal Highway Administration and the American Transportation Research Institute identified the Circle Interchange as the number one bottleneck among highways crucial to the nation’s freight transportation system. Of the more than 400,000 vehicles that use the interchange each day, about 33,000 are trucks. The interchange experiences an average of 940 crashes per year.
The traffic volume is almost mind-boggling.
* NBC Chicago…
Thousands will be affected during construction. The end result, Quinn said, will be a minimum of four lanes in each direction on I-90/94 at the I-290/Congress Parkway, two lanes on the “north-to-west” and “east-to north” ramps to improve safety and mobility, and local access lanes for both northbound and southbound I-90/94.
Ramps also will be reconfigured for a safer, more efficient traffic flow.
IDOT this summer considered changing plans for the interchange’s renovations after neighbors complained proposed ramps would be too close to their windows.
* Sun-Times…
In stage one, which will begin in two weeks, crews will begin work on the Morgan Street bridge. Over the next six to eight months, crews will begin work on Halsted, Harrison, Peoria and Taylor streets, and on the contested north to west flyover ramp over Halsted, which will connect drivers to the Eisenhower.
In 2016, crews will begin work affecting the majority of expressway drivers: reconstructing the main lanes of traffic on both the Dan Ryan and Kennedy Expressways, as well as work on Van Buren, Jackson, Adams and Monroe.
Three lanes will remain open on the Dan Ryan and Kennedy, while two lanes will be open in each direction on the Congress Parkway and Eisenhower.
Much of the work will be completed at night to minimize traffic delays, officials say.
Discuss.
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