SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Human Rights Campaign releases polls on Dold, Lipinski

Thursday, Aug 20, 2015

* From the Human Rights Campaign…

To: Interested Parties
From: John Hagner, Clarity Campaign Labs
Date: August 14, 2015
Subject: IL-10 Voters Show Strong Support for Federal LGBT Non-Discrimination Protections

A new poll conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs on behalf of the Human Rights Campaign shows strong support for a new federal LGBT non-discrimination bill (The Equality Act) in the district of Congressman Bob Dold. The same survey shows Dold starts with a narrow lead over former Congressman Brad Schneider and is well under 50%.

Support for the new Equality Act was widespread. Voters in IL-10 support it by a 21 point margin, with 49% saying Congress should pass it and 28% saying they should not. Democrats support it by wide margins – 70% to 10%, but equally important is the strong support from Independents: 59% to 21%. There is substantial Republican support as well, with 22% of Republicans saying Congress should pass the bill.

We described the law neutrally, reading voters this summary: “The Equality Act is a bill that would extend existing non-discrimination laws to protect gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people in housing, services and public spaces, credit, and employment.”

Voters who are undecided on this new non-discrimination bill appear highly persuadable. 71 percent of those undecided on the Equality Act are either Democratic or Independent voters. Importantly, Congressman Dold’s willingness to oppose the Equality Act could have significant implications for his re-election.

If he opposes the Equality Act, 18% of his current supporters say they would be less likely to vote for him next November, and 29% of people who are currently undecided say they’d be less likely to support him. Only 18% of undecided voters say they’d be more likely to support him.

We find that in the race for Congress in 2016, the incumbent Republican Dold starts out with a narrow lead, within the poll’s margin of error. Including leaners, 44% of voters are supporting Dold, with 40% supporting former Congressman Brad Schneider.
The voters of the district have divided opinions on Dold, with 43% having a favorable view and 33% an unfavorable one.

Methodology: A poll of registered voters in Illinois’s Tenth Congressional District. We surveyed 530 voters with an IVR survey and we matched the sample to the voter file and weighted it to reflect the electorate in this district. The margin of error is +/- 5.16% at a 95% confidence interval.

So, in other words, supporting the bill might erode some of Dold’s conservative GOP support. Then again, where else are they gonna go unless a strong third party candidate emerges?

* Some charts…

* Meanwhile, there’s been a bit of chatter recently from gay rights groups about ginning up a Democratic primary against Congressman Lipinski. So…

To: Interested Parties
From: John Hagner, Clarity Campaign Labs
Date: August 14, 2015
Subject: IL-3 Voters Show Strong Support for Federal LGBT Non-Discrimination Protections

A new poll conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs on behalf of the Human Rights Campaign shows strong support for a new federal LGBT non-discrimination bill (The Equality Act) in the district of Congressman Dan Lipinski. The same survey shows Lipinski leading in his re-election campaign, but that more than a third of his supporters would be less likely to support him if he didn’t support the Act.

Support for the new Equality Act was widespread. Voters in IL-3 support it by a 28-point margin, with 56% saying Congress should pass it and 28% saying they should not. Democrats support it by wide margins – 74% to 10%, but equally important is the strong support from Independents: 49% to 31%. There is substantial Republican support as well, with 27% of Republicans say Congress should pass the bill.

We described the law neutrally, reading voters this summary: “The Equality Act is a bill that would extend existing non-discrimination laws to protect gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people in housing, services and public spaces, credit, and employment.”

Voters who are undecided on this new non-discrimination bill appear highly persuadable. 70 percent of those undecided on the Equality Act are either Democratic or Independent voters. Importantly, Congressman Lipinski’s willingness to oppose the Equality Act could have implications for his re-election. If he opposes the Equality Act, 34% of his current supporters say they would be less likely to vote for him next November.

We find that in the race for Congress in 2016, the incumbent Democrat Lipinski starts out ahead of an unnamed Republican challenger. 51% of voters are supporting Lipinski, with 20% supporting a Republican.

70% of the district’s voters have an opinion on Dan Lipinski, and they’re relatively favorable, with 43% having a favorable view and 27% an unfavorable one. His unfavorable ratings are similar among both Republicans and Democrats – 26% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of their Congressman.

Methodology: A poll of registered voters in Illinois’s Third Congressional District. We surveyed 538 voters with an IVR survey and we matched the sample to the voter file and weighted it to reflect the electorate in this district. The margin of error is +/- 5.01% at a 95% confidence interval.

* Charts…


* Questions as asked…

If the November 2016 election were held today and the candidates for Congress were a Republican candidate, or Dan Lipinski, the Democrat, press 1 if you would vote for the Republican, press 2 if you would vote for Lipinski, or press 9 if you’re unsure.               

I would like to read you a little bit about some laws being debated in Congress and get your response. The Equality Act is a bill that would extend existing non-discrimination laws to protect gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people in housing, services and public spaces, credit, and employment. Press 1 if you think Congress should pass this law, press 2 if you think Congress should not pass this law, and press 9 if you’re unsure.

If your members of Congress didn’t support this law, would that make you more or less like to vote to re-elect him? Press 1 if you’d be more likely to vote for your member of Congress if they opposed the Equality Act, Press 2 if you’d be more likely to vote against them, and press 9 if it wouldn’t effect your vote.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller   8 Comments      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend
* Mazel tov!
* Everybody wants to get into the act
* Another Day. Another Auction. Another $275 Million For Exelon
* First time for everything
* Question of the day
* 'Tis the season
* The question nobody's asking
* Today's number: $10.65 billion
* The cat herder
* The new normal: Lack of pressure, lack of talks
* Illinois Credit Unions – Actively engaged in the communities they serve
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Sony Xperia Z5 Compact hands-on: Sony’s secret weapon?
        * App Release Notes Are Getting Stupid
        * Customizing the Moto X Pure Edition with Moto Maker
        * LG Nexus 5X will be more expensive than the original
        * Google Street View now a stand-alone app for Android devices
        * Alcatel intros new ONETOUCH POP phones, GO Play, and GO Watch
        * MacRumors Giveaway: Win a Nomad Pod or Nomad Stand for Apple Watch

        * Zangari adjusting to switch from mound to first
        * Zangari adjusting to switch from mound to first
        * Frankie Montas aces debut without best stuff
        * White Sox to open series vs. first-place Royals
        * White Sox rally to thwart Twins in finale
        * Jones wins Round 2 vs. Sano after escaping jam
        * Shark clamps down following slam to earn win

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2015
        August 2015
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * State of Illinois continues to hire despite lack of budget
        * Chicago's Northerly Island, formerly an airport, now a park
        * Judge tosses lawsuit against sperm bank over biracial child
        * EXCHANGE: State police officer of year living dream
        * Woman sentenced to prison for 2012 beating death of baby
        * DuSable Museum of African American History names new CEO
        * CTA reminds parents of 1st-day-of-school free rides program
        * Illinois officials to crack down on Labor Day drunk driving
        * Trooper: Colleague broke law in roadside strip search
        * Chicago mayor says he'll propose $500 million tax hike

        * State of Illinois continues to hire despite lack of budget
        * Springfield officer named Air National Guard commander
        * Schaumburg teen's dental visit changes state law
        * State Rep. Lang seeks deal with Rauner on medical marijuana extension
        * Illinois House comes up 3 votes shy of overriding union arbitration bill
        * Bill to stop Illinois State Museum closure advances in House
        * Override effort on union arbitration bill fails in House
        * Legionnaires' disease cases rise at Quincy veterans home
        * Union arbitration override fails in House
        * Illinois House Democrats seek to override Gov. Rauner on union arbitration

        * State of Illinois continues to hire despite lack of budget
        * Lurie Children's acquires first private pediatric doctors group
        * With cop killers at large, Chain O' Lakes sees a much more somber Labor Day
        * Flash crash trader's indictment shines light on strategy of spoofing
        * Jobless rate drops as water muddy for Fed decision


          * More videos, DNA analyzed in Fox Lake manhunt
          * 2 men charged in Uptown double slaying
          * Willowbrook attack victim: 'God has a purpose for me'
          * Cops release image of man wanted in Morgan Park slaying
          * O'Hare noise complaints top 2 million for year
          * Man charged after Lincolnwood mall fight sentenced to 120 days in jail
          * DUI charges upgraded against Lisle's village clerk
          * Man and 17-year-old boy wounded in West Side shooting
          * Family members of woman who died sue Park Ridge hospital
          * Second City to move or cancel shows through Sept. 20 after fire


          * State of Illinois continues to hire despite lack of budget
          * Springfield officer named Air National Guard commander
          * Schaumburg teen's dental visit changes state law
          * State Rep. Lang seeks deal with Rauner on medical marijuana extension
          * Our Opinion: Panhandling deserves a community response
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Ex-Schock aide says he saw red flags
          * Norbert Brauer: Trans Pacific Partnership a secretive, one-sided deal
          * George Will: The blood-stained Indian Child Welfare Act
          * Eugene Robinson: Digging a hole to build a wall
          * Illinois House comes up 3 votes shy of overriding union arbitration bill


          * Champaign man facing up to 120 years in prison for sex crimes
          * Updated: Concrete work will further delay Black Dog opening
          * Rollover accident near Rantoul seriously injures woman
          * Lack of sidewalks has Creve Coeur parents worried about schoolkids' safety
          * Tom's Mailbag, Sept. 4, 2015
          * Champaign man arrested on warrant, faces new gun, drug charges
          * Kacich: Mahomet mansion update
          * Lane closures start Tuesday on Adams St. in Peoria
          * 09-04-15 Penny for Your Thoughts
          * 09-04-15 The Expressions from Centennial High School @Char_gers


          * Browns' Manziel on schedule in recovery from elbow issue
          * Venus Williams moves closer to possible matchup with Serena
          * 49ers cut DL Darnell Dockett, 5 others
          * Argentina official says doors open to Syrian refugees
          * Monroe County declares emergency needed for needle exchange

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Durbin, Kirk: SBA Makes Federal Relief Ava......

          * How Will the Only Republican to Oppose De-......
          * Durbin, Kirk: SBA Makes Federal Relief Ava......

          * Cathay Bank Takes Over Former New Saigon Space
          * Ald. Osterman Talks Argyle Crime & Solutions
          * Black Homosexual Murders Two Whites and Leftists Still Blame Guns
          * Napolitano: The right committeemen will prove the GOP right for Illinoisans
          * Friday photo: The first sprouts in a freshly plowed field will be weeds
          * Friday photo: Georgetown Park, in memoriam
          * IAR countdown to Oct. 3
          * Morning Minute: Thinking about buying a home? Tips to improve your credit score
          * Buy your IAR Inaugural Gala tickets now
          * Inman service officially kicks off Thursday


          * Illinois awarded CDC funding to combat prescription drug overdose
          * Honoring Illinois' Fallen - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff from Sunrise, Saturday, September 5, 2015 until Sunset, Monday, September 7, 2015.
          * Governor Announces Appointment
          * Lieutenant Governor Evelyn Sanguinetti Joins Acting Assistant Director Anna Hui in Celebration of Labor Day
          * Statement on SB 1229




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller