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Rate Exelon’s new TV and radio ads

Monday, Apr 20, 2015

* TV

Script…

We live in a state of extremes, from brutal summer days to wicked winters. Luckily, Illinois’ nuclear energy plants keep the lights on and the power flowing, day in and day out, with no carbon emissions. Now, some of these plants may have to shut down because of outdated energy policies. Costing up to 8,000 lost Illinois jobs. $1.8 billion in lost economic activity every year. $500 million a year in higher energy costs statewide. And a lot less clean air. If we lose these plants, things could get really uncomfortable. around here. Members of the Illinois General Assembly: Vote YES on House Bill 3293 and Senate Bill 1585 to keep our nuclear plants open.

* The radio ad features Omar Duque, Illinois Hispanic Chamber of Commerce CEO

* But before you rate it, you might wanna check out this recent poll taken by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates and Public Opinion Strategies for the NRDC


You’ll recall that the Exelon bill would freeze out alternative energy providers from tapping into the $300 million the company wants for its nuke plants.

* From the pollsters

Seven in ten strongly favor increased energy efficiency as a way to meet Illinois’s future needs, and majorities back increased use of a number of renewable sources, including solar and wind.

In contrast, fewer than one in five strongly back increasing the use of coal and nuclear power.

- Posted by Rich Miller   10 Comments      


Rauner opens new campaign front in pursuit of grand bargain

Monday, Apr 20, 2015

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Gov. Bruce Rauner devised a new way to reward his friends and punish his enemies on April 16th when he created a campaign committee called “Illinois Turnaround.”

Illinois Turnaround is an independent expenditure committee, meaning contributions to it and by it are not capped by law. The committee’s officially stated purpose is to “support state legislative candidates who support Gov. Rauner’s bold and needed reforms, and to oppose those who stand in the way.”

According to Rauner insiders, the new committee will be given $4-5 million within days of its founding. That’s in addition to the $20 million the governor has in his own personal campaign account, which won’t be touched for this particular effort.

Spending on advertising is expected to begin soon after the money comes in.

The governor’s campaign also released a polling memo which purports to show that the public backs his agenda. While his job approval rating is just 38 percent, his disapproval rating is five points below at 33 percent and his favorable rating is 42 percent, versus 34 who view him unfavorably.

By contrast, the General Assembly’s job approval rating is a mere 20 percent, with 57 percent disapproving. House Speaker Michael Madigan’s favorables are just 24 percent, with 51 percent viewing him unfavorably.

The poll also found that 57 percent agree with: “Bruce Rauner is trying to shake things up in Springfield, but the career politicians are standing in his way,” and 56 percent agree that the governor is “working to find bipartisan solutions that will help fix Illinois’s budget mess and improve the struggling state economy.”

“Every time they attack us,” a Rauner insider said about the Democrats, “they are reinforcing that they are insiders and the governor is the outsider - he’s the one trying to change things.”

The issue questions are interesting because they provide a roadmap of how the money will be spent and what the governor intends to do at the Statehouse in the coming weeks.

For instance, “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a State Representative who voted to raise the Illinois income tax rate without any property tax freeze and without any significant economic or budget reforms to help our economy grow?” 56 percent said they’d be “less likely” to vote for that legislator, while just 15 percent said “more likely.” The governor is obviously preparing to “go to the mattresses.”

Another question asked whether voters supported higher taxes, without which “major budget cuts… will hurt education, health care, and other state services,” or if they backed lower spending, “even if that means major spending cuts will be required.”

53 percent said they wanted lower spending while 39 percent said they backed higher taxes. The Rauner folks have extrapolated from this question that voters back the governor’s spending cuts. We’ll see.

And they claim that the state Senate hearings around the state which are focusing on the governor’s recent and proposed cuts are doing the Democrats no good. “The bottom line is if the legislature chooses to ignore his reforms and we are forced to go the austere budget - politically - the governor will be fine and the legislature will be in even worse shape,” a Rauner insider e-mailed me.

The “austere budget” is being talked up by Rauner insiders as a way of forcing Democrats to cave on things like local “right to work” zones. They firmly believe that if they refuse to back any additional revenues for next fiscal year, Democrats will eventually have to recognize reality and give the governor what he wants.

The issue questions are clearly loaded. For instance, check out part of the “right to work” question: “Under current Illinois law, workers are often required to join a labor union and pay union dues as a condition of their employment. In other words, the worker cannot take a job unless he or she joins the union.”

Not mentioned is that Rauner wants to allow employees who receive all the benefits of union membership to not have to pay for those valuable union services. It’s like passing a law that lets newspaper advertisers off the hook for paying for their ads.

But when you essentially have unlimited resources and the other side doesn’t, as is the case with Rauner versus the Democrats, you can frame an advocacy campaign pretty much any way you want.

We’ve entered an entirely new world, campers.

* And the AP takes a look at Rauner’s longed-for mega-deal, which would be based on the threat of an “austere budget”

Seizing on Illinois’ budget crisis as a political opportunity, Republican businessman-turned-governor Bruce Rauner is trying to broker a master deal to advance his pro-business priorities through the Legislature in exchange for new revenue to save programs near and dear to the Democrats.

Democratic leaders who control the General Assembly say they’re willing to negotiate, and talks with Republicans could begin in the next week. But they caution that some of Rauner’s proposals are non-starters. […]

“Crisis creates opportunity for change, and we have a crisis. … We’ve got to take advantage of that,” Rauner told attendees at an Illinois Chamber of Commerce event. “A lot people are saying ‘Bruce, just balance the budget and worry about other stuff later. We’ll talk to you later about reform.’ No, no, no. … If we do only that, they’ll never talk about reform. It’ll never happen.” […]

But [Rikeesha Phelon, a spokeswoman for Democratic Senate President John Cullerton] said the Senate will not consider Rauner’s proposal to create right to work zones, which unions strongly oppose and she says wouldn’t make Illinois more competitive. She said Senate Democrats also have differences of opinion with Rauner on what changes are needed to programs like workers’ compensation.

- Posted by Rich Miller   44 Comments      


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* Rauner approval rating: 40-36
* AP and Chicago Tribune - Study: Exelon subsidy would cost $1.6B over 5 years
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* Illinois Credit Unions – A Smarter Choice
* Advertisers behaving badly
* Your daily "right to work" roundup
* *** UPDATED x1 *** It's just a bill...
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