* It’s still pretty darned early for this. Also, pay attention to the generic ballot numbers at the end…
U.S. Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro, is leading Democratic challenger C.J. Baricevic 51 to 35 percent, with 14 percent undecided, in a poll of 12th U.S. House District voters released Monday by Harper Polling, a GOP-leaning polling firm. […]
Harper’s poll showed that 24 percent of those surveyed strongly approved of Bost’s job performance, while another 30 percent somewhat approved. Sixteen percent somewhat disapproved, 11 percent strongly disapproved and 18 percent were not sure, according to a survey conducted Sept. 12-13 of 400 likely 12th District voters. […]
Bost is also viewed favorably by majorities of Republican voters (71 percent) and independents (53 percent), according to the survey from Harper Polling, which is based in Harrisburg, Pa.
In addition, 71 percent of voters surveyed said they believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, while another 21 percent said it was moving in the right course. Likely voters were almost evenly split between a generic Republican candidate (43 percent) and a Democratic candidate (41 percent), with 9 percent of voters responding they are not sure, according to the poll.
That district is a lot different in presidential years. Democrat Bill Enyart defeated Jason Plummer by 9 points in 2012.
This is not to say that Bost is in trouble, by any means. Underestimate that guy at your own peril - Enyart and the DCCC did and look where that got them last year.
I’m just saying that the generic ballot doesn’t match up that well with actual district performance.