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Poll: Undecideds ahead of Emanuel

Monday, Nov 17, 2014

* A three-way race could send hizzoner to a runoff, according to a new poll conducted by Lake Research Partners for the Chicago Teachers Union

In a three-way contest among Emanuel, Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, and 2nd Ward Alderman Bob Fioretti, if the election were held today, Emanuel takes 33 percent of the vote; Garcia snags 18 percent, and Fioretti, 13 percent [with 36 percent undecided …]

When the race is narrowed to a head-to-head contest between Emanuel and Chuy, the race closes to only 5 points; 36 percent to Emanuel, 31 percent for Garcia, and 30 percent undecided. […]

By a more than a two-to-one margin, undecided voters view Rahm more unfavorably (62 percent) than favorably (26 percent). […]

Chicagoans are dissatisfied with the direction of the city with just 35 percent say things are headed in the right direction, while 50 percent say things are heading in the wrong direction, according to the poll.

That’s a lot of undecideds. Emanuel ain’t toast yet, but, man, if he’s really at 33 and 36 percent are undecided after almost four years on the job and most of those undecideds view him unfavorably, he’s starting to look just a wee bit crispy around the edges.

- Posted by Rich Miller   38 Comments      


Big support for Zalewski’s proposals, but not overwhelming when ideas are combined

Monday, Nov 17, 2014

* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute polled Rep. Mike Zalewski’s controversial anti-crime bill

Some have proposed that the mandatory minimum sentence for those convicted of a felony involving a firearm should be increased from two years to three years. Would you favor or oppose this proposal?

    Strongly favor 36.8%
    Favor 30.0%
    Oppose 16.0%
    Strongly oppose 6.5%
    Other/Don’t know 10.7%

Some have proposed a law requiring that convicted felons who have been found guilty of illegally carrying firearms would have to serve at least 85 percent of their sentence. Some
people a) support the law because they say it would make our laws more of a deterrent against violent gun crimes, and would take some of the most dangerous people off the streets and some people b) oppose the law because they say it would cost too much to house more people in already overcrowded prisons, and they worry that some law-abiding people might be imprisoned by this stricter law.

Which comes closer to your opinion, that

    Convicted felons should serve at least 85 percent of their gun crime sentences 64.5%
    We should not impose mandatory minimum sentences on felons convicted of gun crimes 25.2%
    Other/Don’t know 10.2%

* From the Institute

“Regardless of political affiliation or region of the state, these poll results show widespread public support for increasing to three years the mandatory minimum sentence for gun-involved felonies and Truth-in-Sentencing,” said Delio Calzolari, a lawyer and associate director of the Institute.

When broken out by region and political party, the poll found:

    • Minimum Sentencing / Region. Support for increased minimum sentencing is over 60 percent throughout the state. In Chicago, 66.0 percent favor and 24.0 percent oppose with 10.0 percent undecided. Downstate shows the weakest support with 63.4 percent in favor, 22.1 percent opposed and 14.5 percent undecided. The strongest support comes from the Chicago Suburbs with 69.2 percent in favor, 22.1 percent opposed and 8.7 percent undecided.

    • Minimum Sentencing / Political Party. Statewide, Republicans and Democrats show similar support in favor of bumping the minimum sentence from two to three years. 69.9 percent of Republicans favored the proposal as did 68.0 percent of Democrats. Republican opposition was 21.2 percent with 8.9 percent undecided. Democrat opposition was 23.2 percent with 8.8 percent undecided. Of those identifying themselves as Independent, 62.0 percent favored the proposal, 24.1 percent opposed and 13.9 percent were undecided.

    • Truth-in-Sentencing/ Region. The greatest support for requiring felons to serve 85 percent of their prison sentence versus no mandatory minimum was Downstate, where 67.0 percent supported the 85 percent sentences and 21.5 percent chose no mandatory sentences. There were 11.6 percent undecided. The weakest support for Truth-in-Sentencing was in Chicago where 61.5 percent of respondents chose requiring felons to serve at least 85 percent of their sentences, 26.0 percent chose no mandatory minimum sentencing, and 12.5 percent were undecided. In the Chicago suburbs, 64.2 percent of respondents chose the 85 percent minimum sentence, 27.2 percent chose the option for no minimum sentencing, and 8.5 percent were undecided.

    • Truth-in-Sentencing/ Political Party. Republicans favored this Truth in Sentencing proposal more than Democrats. Almost seven in ten Republicans (69.1 percent) chose the Truth in Sentencing proposal option as opposed to 65.3 percent of Democrats and 61.5 percent of Independents. Alternatively, 23.0 percent of Republicans, 24.7 percent of Democrats and 28.3 percent of Independents chose the option that minimum sentences should not be imposed on felons. Undecided Republicans, Democrats and Independents were 7.8 percent, 10.0 percent and 10.2 percent respectively.

    Combined Results/ Analysis Support softens when the policies are combined. Combined results show 51.5 percent of Illinoisans favor both the increased minimum sentencing and believe that convicted felons should serve at least 85% of prison sentences. Only 11.5 percent oppose both the sentencing increase and hold opinions closer to no minimum sentencing.

Emphasis added.

- Posted by Rich Miller   15 Comments      


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