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Poll: Clinton up by 13

Monday, Sep 19, 2016

* Press release

In its new survey of Illinois, the Loras College Poll finds Democrat Hillary Clinton with a lead over Republican Donald Trump. The live-caller statewide survey of a random sample of 600 likely voters was conducted Sept. 13-16. […]

    Hillary Clinton 43 percent
    Donald Trump 30 percent
    Gary Johnson 8 percent
    Jill Stein 3 percent

    Unsure 14 percent

* More

Clinton and Trump both continue to struggle with the public’s perception of them. Even in the state she used to call home, 50 percent of likely Illinois voters view Clinton unfavorably, while 67 percent view Donald Trump negatively. […]

    Candidate Net Favorability
    Hillary Clinton -8
    Donald Trump

About even numbers of Trump supporters indicate they intend to vote for the real estate mogul more out of opposition to Clinton (46 percent) than in support of Trump (44 percent). For Clinton, a majority (54 percent) indicated that their choice of Clinton was due more to support of her than opposition to Trump.

Nothing unifies quite like an opponent can, and that’s particularly true of Trump supporters right now.

* Back to the poll

In terms of race, Trump’s support among Hispanic and African-American voters is very small, with only 10 percent of Hispanic voters surveyed intending to vote for the real estate mogul. Only 4 percent of African-Americans surveyed indicated they intend to vote for Trump. […]

Geography is also an important element in understanding Illinois politics, with the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and City of Chicago holding substantial importance politically and economically. Downstate Illinois comprises the third geographic unit of analysis. Geographic differences in voter preference are revealed in this Loras Poll, as Clinton’s margin is strongest in the City of Chicago (64 percent Clinton to 12 percent Trump), while within the Chicago MSA the race is more competitive (42 percent for Clinton and 31 percent for Trump). There is one geographic region in which Trump holds the advantage over Clinton. In downstate Illinois Trump leads over Clinton 40 percent to 31 percent.

President Obama’s job approval rating is 55 percent, compared to 40 percent who disapprove.

* Other stuff

53 percent of likely voters expect that Hillary Clinton will be elected in November, while 26 percent expect the winner to be Donald Trump.

35 percent of likely voters believe the country is on the right track, with 51 percent indicating the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Looking at the impact of partisanship on perception of the direction of the country, Democrats are more positive than Republicans—52 percent of Democrats believe the country is on the right track compared to just 11 percent of Republicans. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 33 percent of Democrats.

Only 24 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of both Clinton and Trump.

That last line is interesting. You’d think by reading analysis online that everybody hates both candidates.

Methodology is here. Crosstabs are here.

Their US Senate poll results will be released tomorrow.

- Posted by Rich Miller   15 Comments      


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