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Rauner poll: Voters oppose CPS “bailout”

Tuesday, Jun 28, 2016

* Keep in mind that many of these questions are obviously slanted, but polls like these are done to test messaging. And, according to their poll, that messaging is working. From the governor’s campaign operation…

Victory Phones, which accurately tracked the 2014 Illinois governor’s race, conducted a statewide opinion survey about the status of school funding and the current budget impasse. The poll surveyed 777 likely Illinois voters between June 25-27 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.52 percent. The sample was D+15 and included 25% cell phones.

Key Findings

1. Speaker Mike Madigan, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and the Chicago Teachers Union are all unpopular.

Q. What is your opinion of Mike Madigan?

    Favorable 13.2%
    Unfavorable 71.1%
    No opinion 15.6%

Q. What is your opinion of Rahm Emanuel?

    Favorable 17.7%
    Unfavorable 61.6%
    No opinion 20.8%

Q. What is your opinion of the Chicago Teachers Union?

    Favorable 21.5%
    Unfavorable 50.3%
    No opinion 28.2%

2. Democrats’ intransigence and decision to leave Springfield without passing a budget is helping Gov. Rauner’s image recover.

Q. What is your opinion of Bruce Rauner?

    Favorable 43.1%
    Unfavorable 41.4%
    No opinion 15.6%

3. Voters oppose bailing out Chicago Public Schools even if it means turning down additional money for their own schools.

Q. Do you support or oppose a taxpayer-funded bailout of Chicago Public Schools if it includes increasing state funding for all schools across Illinois including your own local school districts?

    Support 32.3%
    Oppose 53.7%
    Unsure 14.0%

4. Voters don’t want their legislators to vote for any legislation that would bailout Chicago Public Schools.

Q. Would you be more or less likely to vote for your state legislator if you found out they voted for a bill that increases local school funding but also provides the largest taxpayer-funded bailout in the history of Chicago Public Schools?

    More Likely 23.3%
    Less Likely 53.9%
    Unsure 22.8%

5. Voters prefer Gov. Rauner’s education funding proposal over the one proposed by House Speaker Mike Madigan

Q. One proposal, put forward by Speaker Mike Madigan and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, would provide record funding for schools throughout Illinois, but would also give Chicago a bailout worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The other proposal, put forward by Governor Bruce Rauner, would increase education funding by $240 million but would not include a Chicago bailout. Of these two proposals, which do you prefer?

    Speaker Mike Madigan and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s bill that increases school funding for all and includes a Chicago bailout 38.8%

    Governor Rauner’s bill that increases school funding but does not give Chicago a taxpayer bailout 61.2%

6. Illinois voters believe Chicago Public Schools are poorly run and don’t pay enough of their own costs.

Q. Do you agree or disagree that Chicago Public Schools is run by corrupt politicians?

    Agree 59.6%
    Disagree 23.1%
    Unsure 17.3%

Q. Do you agree or disagree that Chicago Public Schools gets unfair treatment by the state and deserves more funding than most other school districts?

    Agree 35.2%
    Disagree 50.45%
    Unsure 14.4%

Q. Do you agree or disagree that Chicago Public Schools is a financial wreck that gives sweetheart deals to special interests and political insiders, forcing taxpayers to pay more to foot the bill?

    Agree 64.7%
    Disagree 18.1%
    Unsure 17.2%

7. A robust messaging campaign will further solidify support for Gov. Rauner’s education plan and opposition to the Democrats’ plan.

Q. Chicago Public Schools has had years of runaway spending, reckless mismanagement and giveaways to special interests and political insiders. Knowing this do you support or oppose a taxpayer-funded bailout of Chicago Public Schools?

    Support 20.2%
    Oppose 67.8%
    Unsure 12.1%

Q. The proposal to bailout Chicago Public Schools is supported by Chicago politicians Rahm Emanuel and Mike Madigan but opposed by reformers like Bruce Rauner. Knowing this, do you support or oppose a taxpayer-funded bailout of Chicago Public Schools?

    Support 25.3%
    Oppose 64.8%
    Unsure 10%

* Top takeaway: That question about support/oppose more money for their own schools as part of a CPS bailout is truly not good for Democrats, who’ve proposed doing just that. The folks out there in VoterLand don’t need to buy in to the governor’s “CPS is bad” rhetoric because they’ve always felt that way.

Also, check out those MJM numbers. Even with a D+15 sample. Ouch!

- Posted by Rich Miller   71 Comments      

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Tuesday, Jun 28, 2016

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United Way survey finds 1 million people lost services

Thursday, Jun 23, 2016

[Bumped up for visibility since this story has mostly been ignored by the media except for a brief story this morning by the AP.]

* Press release…

A new survey conducted by United Way of Illinois (UWI), the statewide association of 52 local United Ways and the largest non-governmental funder of health and human services in the state, shows Illinois’ year-long budget impasse continues to starve the nonprofit sector and cause harm to vulnerable citizens across the state.

In the fourth United Way of Illinois survey, more than half of safety net and mental health providers responded that they have been unable to meet the needs of clients for the past year. Survey respondents also indicated that the disruption in services will have long-term effects on the people they serve as extended waiting lists, the elimination of programs and triaging of clients mean more people are moving into crisis situations. The mentally ill who are not getting psychiatric services go to emergency rooms or jails and some of the young people who aren’t in out-of-school time and job training programs become involved in the criminal justice system.

As of June 2016:

    • 54% of survey respondents anticipate they will have to cease serving clients in six months if the impasse continues
    • Almost two-thirds of survey respondents reported making program and/or operational cuts, up from 48% in January 2016
    • Of those agencies, 91% have cut the number of clients they serve, leaving nearly 1 million clients in Illinois without critical support, most significantly in the areas of mental health, substance abuse services and childhood education
    • More than 50% of safety net and mental health providers indicated they could not meet the needs of their clients for the past year due to the impasse

“We honestly wished we would have different news” said Kristi Long, United Way of Illinois Board Chair. “The survey results show accelerating damage since January—more program cuts, more clients left unserved, more debt. The mentally ill, disabled seniors and young children in need of educational opportunities—these people can’t wait for the next election.”

Organizations have been unable to come close to filling the gap left by the state through additional fundraising efforts and have been forced to take extreme measures in order to continue serving clients. Agencies reported cutting back or eliminating vital programs, draining cash reserves and credit lines, laying off staff and considering the possibility of shutting their doors entirely. In order to continue to serve clients:

    • 45% of respondents have been forced to lay off staff, up from 24% in January 2016
    • 59% of respondents have utilized their cash reserves
    • 33% of respondents have utilized lines of credit
    • Respondents have taken on a combined $38 million in debt
    • 36% of agencies anticipate they will have to close their doors in six months if the impasse continues

This is the fourth survey conducted by United Way of Illinois on the state budget stalemate. The survey was conducted June 1-June 8, 2016, and responses were received from 429 human services agencies that receive state funding. Responses were received from every county in Illinois. Survey respondents represented a range of service categories including youth development, early childhood education, mental health, emergency housing, senior services and employment training and varied in budget size from less than $500,000 to more than $15 million.

More numbers are here.

- Posted by Rich Miller   66 Comments      

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