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PPP Poll: US Sen. Dem primary ‘wide open’

Monday, May 5, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Keep in mind that the Democratic Lt. Governors Association is supporting LG Stratton…

A new poll today released by the Democratic Lt. Governors Association (DLGA) shows a wide open field for the Democratic Senate primary, with Juliana Stratton leading among the candidates once voters hear more about each candidate and their bio.

In a 4-way matchup between candidates, 42% of voters are undecided. After voters learn more about each candidate, Juliana Stratton jumps 13 points and into the lead. A majority (61%) say they are more likely to vote for Stratton after hearing about her, which helps increase her lead in the informed vote.

In a head to head against Raja Krishnamoorthi, Stratton leads 41% to 24%.

“As the race heats up, it’s clear that Juliana Stratton is poised to win what is sure to be a competitive primary once voters hear her vision and see the strength she brings as Illinois’ next US Senator,” said DLGA Executive Director Kevin Holst. “As Lt. Governor, she’s been a steadfast advocate for working families and a principled, thoughtful leader whose lived experience fuels both her passion and her impact. Democratic Lt. Governors are the Democratic Party’s bench, and no one embodies that more than Lt. Governor Stratton, who is exceptionally well-positioned to continue her service to Illinois as their next US Senator.”

The poll memo can be viewed HERE. The survey results can be viewed HERE.

Public Policy Polling surveyed: 674 likely Democratic primary voters from April 29-30, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3.8%. 57% of the interviews for the survey were conducted by text and 43% by landline.

* Remember, PPP surveyed likely Democratic primary voters

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?

    Approve 7%
    Disapprove 89%
    Not sure 4%

Q2: Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic primary elections or Republican primary elections, or do you not usually vote in primaries?

    Democratic primaries 100%
    Republican primaries 0%
    Don’t usually vote in primary elections 0%

Q3: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of JB Pritzker?

    Favorable 84%
    Unfavorable 8%
    Not sure 8%

Q4: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Duckworth?

    Favorable 80%
    Unfavorable 12%
    Not sure 8%

Q5: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Juliana Stratton?

    Favorable 34%
    Unfavorable 8%
    Not sure 58%

Q6: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Raja Krishnamoorthi?

    Favorable 42%
    Unfavorable 8%
    Not sure 50%

Q7: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lauren Underwood?

    Favorable 48%
    Unfavorable 7%
    Not sure 45%

Q8: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Robin Kelly?

    Favorable 25%
    Unfavorable 7%
    Not sure 69%

Q9: If the Democratic candidates for US Senate next time were Juliana Stratton, Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lauren Underwood, and Robin Kelly, who would you vote for?

    Juliana Stratton 13%
    Raja Krishnamoorthi 20%
    Lauren Underwood 16%
    Robin Kelly 8%
    Not sure 42%

Q 10: Here’s some more information about the potential candidates for US Senate. Juliana Stratton is the first Black woman Lieutenant Governor of Illinois. She is from the South Side of Chicago and is endorsed by Governor JB Pritzker and Senator Tammy Duckworth. Does hearing this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Juliana Stratton, or does it not make a difference?

    More likely 61%
    Less likely 6%
    It doesn’t make a difference 30%
    Not sure 3%

Q 11: Raja Krishnamoorthi is a Congressman from Schaumburg. He grew up in Peoria, the son of immigrants from India. Does hearing this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Raja Krishnamoorthi, or does it not make a difference?

    More likely 24%
    Less likely 5%
    It doesn’t make a difference 66%
    Not sure 5%

Q12: Lauren Underwood is a Congresswoman from Naperville. She is a registered nurse and the first Black woman and millennial to represent that area in Washington. Does hearing this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Lauren Underwood, or does it not make a difference?

    More likely 46%
    Less likely 5%
    It doesn’t make a difference 45%
    Not sure 4%

Q13: Robin Kelly is a Congresswoman from Lynwood. She was the first Black woman to be Chief of Staff to a statewide elected official and served Cook County in the Illinois State House. Does hearing this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Robin Kelly, or does it not make a difference?

    More likely 32%
    Less likely 5%
    It doesn’t make a difference 55%
    Not sure 7%

Q14: Having heard some more information, let me ask you again: if the Democratic candidates for US Senate next time were Juliana Stratton, Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lauren Underwood, and Robin Kelly, who would you vote for?

    Juliana Stratton 26%
    Raja Krishnamoorthi 17%
    Lauren Underwood 17%
    Robin Kelly 9%
    Not sure 31%

Q15: If the Democratic candidates for US Senate were just Juliana Stratton and Raja Krishnamoorthi, who would you vote for?

    Juliana Stratton 41%
    Raja Krishnamoorthi 24%
    Not sure 35%

The positive pushes were kinda weak for the Stratton rivals, but whatevs. Mentioning Pritzker and Duckworth obviously helped her. And she’ll likely have the financial resources to compete with the well-funded Krishnamoorthi.

No crosstabs were dstributed by PPP, but there were five demographic questions at the end of the poll.

This is the first legit public poll released in this race. A group supporting Underwood announced a poll some weeks ago, but it has never disclosed the name of the pollster nor provided the actual questions and answers, so I’ve disregarded it.

Many thanks to Isabel for formatting the results to make it easier to view here.

  7 Comments      


UPDATE: This post about 314 Action Fund’s US Senate poll is retracted until I receive a response

Tuesday, Apr 8, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE - April 24 *** I tried for days to ascertain the name of the polling firm which conducted this alleged survey. 314 Action Fund has ignored repeated emails and tweets. I called and was told a spokesperson would return my call and that hasn’t yet happened.

This is a very simple, basic question: Who conducted your poll? Unless and until I receive an answer, I’m retracting this post. Sorry. I should’ve asked the question at the very beginning.

* Sen. Dick Durbin said in late March that he plans to make a reelection announcement “soon.” NBC’s Mary Ann Ahern

The primary is a long way away, but Sen. Durbin remains stubbornly in place. Somebody may probably need to nudge him aside, but possible successors are all obviously wary of confronting him. Still, the person who strikes first could reap the rewards of early small-dollar contributions. Underwood appears to be trying to have it both ways for now.

* Press release…

A new poll commissioned by 314 Action Fund shows that Representative Lauren Underwood (IL-14), a nurse and public health expert, leads the Illinois Senate ballot in every test, should Senator Dick Durbin retire. In a potential four-way race, a three-way race, and after introducing each candidate’s biography, Representative Underwood stood above the rest to Illinois voters.

“Senator Dick Durbin has been an unrivaled champion for Illinois who has worked tirelessly to deliver for the state and has earned the right to decide what is best for himself, his family, and the future of the state,” said Erik Polyak, Managing Director of 314 Action. “Should he decide not to run for reelection, it’s clear Illinois is ready for a new generation of leadership and we are excited by the possibilities.”

Other key findings include:

    • In the initial 4-way ballot, Representative Underwood and Representative Krishnamoorthi are statistically tied with 33% and 30%, respectively, followed by 16% for Lieutenant Governor Stratton and 10% for Representative Kelly. The remaining 10% are undecided.

      o If Representative Kelly was not to run, Representative Underwood picks up the most of her voters, with 45% of her voters moving to Underwood.

    • In the 3-way ballot, Representative Underwood leads by 7 points – 39% to 32% for Krishnamoorthi, and 19% for Stratton.

    • After providing voters with more information about each of the candidates, pulling from bio information each candidate has used, Representative Underwood extends her lead in the 4-way ballot, with 42% of the vote, followed by Representative. Krishnamoorthi at 25%, Stratton at 19%, 9% supporting Kelly, and 4% are undecided.

    • Representative Underwood has the highest name ID of the field - 77% of primary voters identify her by name, 57% know her well enough to offer an opinion of her, and those opinions are almost entirely positive – 53% favorable, 4% unfavorable, 20% neutral.

This poll surveyed 773 likely 2026 Democratic primary voters in Illinois from March 24-27, 2026. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ±3.53% for the full sample.

* Keep in mind that Underwood is a nurse, so this all has the look of being coordinated, whether it is or not…

314 Action Fund is the only national organization working to elect Democrats with backgrounds in science and medicine across all levels of government—from the Senate down to local school boards. The organization is powered by a grassroots community of over six million people supporting scientists, doctors, and STEM professionals who will use science and facts to address our most pressing issues like climate change and health care.

A far more interesting result would’ve been head-to-heads against Durbin.

  33 Comments      


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