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Numbers

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Here’s the exit poll results for Illinois.

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Forby will likely hold on

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Democratic state Sen. Gary Forby will likely prevail in his southern Illinois race against Ron Summers, according to sources in both parties.

Meanwhile, Sen. Pamela Althoff is clobbering Democrat Patrick Ouimet in the northwest suburbs. And Rep. Bill Grunloh has been whipped but good by Republican David Reis. Rep. Careen Gordon (D-Coal City) will likely hold on to her seat. Rep. Lisa Dugan (D-Bradley) is doing very well.

At the moment it looks like the House Democrats will lose two (Ricca Slone and Bill Grunloh) and gain one (Frank Aguilar), for a net of minus one. The Senate Democrats lose one (Pat Welch) and pick up none, for a net of minus one.

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Welch loses

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

It appears that Sen. Pat Welch, a 22-year veteran of the Illinois Senate, has lost to Republican Gary Dahl.

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Bean wins

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

AP declares Melissa Bean the winner.

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Lots of precincts to be counted

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Thanks to a comments poster, I finally found the web page that shows how many Kane County precincts have been counted in each race. Still a lot to go in the Ruth Munson race. 23 counted and 52 not. This may not end up as close as it appears now.

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Slone going down

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Unless the Democrats have something huge up their sleeves, Rep. Ricca Slone looks like a big loser tonight. She’s been trailing Republican Aaron Schock all evening.

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Another upset?

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

GOP Rep. Ruth Munson is now trailing Mike Noland by 21 votes.

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Welch behind in LaSalle

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

With almost 58 percent of the votes counted in LaSalle County, state Sen. Patrick Welch (D-Peru) is trailing Republican Gary Dahl by almost a thousand votes. LaSalle is Welch’s home county.

UPDATE: Dahl is also leading in Kankakee County.

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Munson race very close

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Another potential shocker. The House Democrats put no money behind Mike Noland in the 43rd House District, but GOP Rep. Ruth Munson is now clinging to the narrowest of leads. Stay tuned.

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Will County update

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

It’s still early, but Will County State’s Attorney Jeff Tomczak and Will County Chief Executive Joe Mikan are underperforming by several points.

With 56 percent of the vote counted, George W. Bush is essentially tied 49-49 with John Kerry. But with that same 56 percent counted, the Republican Tomczak is trailing his Dem opponent 54-46, and Mikan is losing to state Sen. Larry Walsh 54-46.

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A few results

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

GOP Rep. Bob Churchill has most likely won. Rep. Beth Coulson has apparently prevailed over her Democratic opponent. Rep. Mike McAuliffe has beaten Rep. Ralph Capparelli.

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Bean to DC?

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

It looks like Democrat Melissa Bean has upset Congressman Phil Crane. The AP has the race tied, but Republicans I’ve spoken with say Bean will win.

Wow.

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The ghost wins?

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

With 98.6 percent of the precincts reporting, Democrat Michelle Chavez has apparently pulled off a stunning upset over Rep. Frank Aguilar (R-Cicero), 53.2 to 46.8.

There’s gotta be a very weird story behind this one. Rep. Aguilar put Chavez into the race. She didn’t do anything. She won by 1,100 votes!

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Then again

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

With 90.1 percent of the votes counted, the so-called “ghost” candidate Michelle Chavez has a 53.5 to 47.4 lead over Rep. Frank Aguilar (R-Cicero).

Chavez has 8,744 votes to Aguilar’s 7.919

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This may mean nothing, but…

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Michelle Chavez, who is supposed to be a “ghost” candidate against Rep. Frank Aguilar (R-Cicero), is currently leading Aguilar, 51.5 to 48.5 with 14,000 votes counted so far.

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8pm Update

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Phil Crane is showing weakness in Cook and Lake and the Repubs are nervous.

Rep. Michael McAuliffe (R-Chicago) is way ahead of Rep. Ralph Capparelli (D-Chicago) at this point.

The Doug Hayse/Careen Gordon House race will be a close one, say the Republicans. Expect legal challenges if the GOP loses by a hair.

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10 counties?

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

The Obama folks think they could lose 10 counties in Illinois. Most of those are in southeastern Illinois, which is hugely Christian conservative - pro-life, pro-gun, anti-Chicago.

Some of those counties are in Rep. Bill Grunloh’s district, so you can see why the Democrat had such a difficult time holding onto his seat this fall.

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I’m on soon, I think

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Listen to the Illinois Radio Network here.

Scratch that. Technical problems.

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Coulson update

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Dems and Repubs both agree that GOP Rep. Beth Coulson had great turnout in her base of Northfield Township and Glenview.

Democrats say they had good turnout in Evanston and are doing well in getting their Wilmette “plus” voters to the polls. Both sides claiming the edge.

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6 pm exit polls

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Kos’ site is getting slammed by hundreds of thousands of visitors per hour, so I’m just gonna steal the 6 pm round of exit polling:

(Just got an email claiming that the Missouri numbers may be wrong. I’m hearing from other sources that the state is tied.)

  Kerry Bush

PA 53   46

FL 51   49

NC 48   52

OH 51   49

MO 46   54

AK 47   53

MI 51   47

NM 50   49

LA 43   56

CO 48   51

AZ 45   55

MN 54   44

WI 52   47

IA 49   49

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Promising links - UPDATED 4X

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Newsradio 780 has a page up for election returns. Nothing yet, of course, but keep that link handy.

780 also has links to local election sites in Chicagoland.

UPDATE 1: The Chicagoist has links to free stuff for Chicago voters.

UPDATE 2: Presidential results by state.

UPDATE 3: Southern Illinoisan political stories

UPDATE 4: Realtime Florida results and Ohio results.

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Afternoon update 1

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Just got back from a loooonnnggg lunch at a popular steak joint, which is why there have been no postings for the past few hours.

I’m about to head out again, but I do plan to post throughout the evening. If you’re outside Chicago, you can hear me every half hour on the Illinois Radio Network. We’ll start at 7:15 pm and end at 11:45 pm. Check that link for a station near you.

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Lots of complaints have poured in from Champaign County, where University of Illinois students are complaining about not being able to use their student IDs to vote. More later.
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This just in fromSouthern Illinoisan political reporter Jim Muir:
I just got through visiting about a one-third of Franklin County’s 35 precincts and the numbers are way up every where. Most are reporting 70-75 percent turnout and some say they might go as high as 80 percent.

From what I’m told both sides are getting the vote out. Who that favors is unclear right now.

I also talked to people at Benton 5 precinct – the largest in Benton — late this afternoon and they told me that they have 1,600 registered voters and that 800 is usually looked at as a really good turnout. They are now projecting that they will vote 1,100. They said they have had people in to vote that have not been there in years.

Still, who the big turnout favors nobody seems to know right now.

Benton is Tier One targeted Sen. Gary Forby’s home town.

My brother Devin reports “extremely long lines” at SIU’s Carbondale campus at 1:30 this afternoon.

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From the ICPR’s blog:
Senator Pamela Althoff (R-32) reported $110K from RSSCC, and another $50K from Tom Les of Crystal Lake, whose only other reported contribution was $500 to Perry Moy earlier in October. Senator Gary Forby (D-59) got $61K from ISDF.

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You can check election results for state House races tonight at Tom Cross’ website

More later.

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4pm Exit Polls

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Via Kos which was via Slate.

          NV  CO  NC  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  WI

Kerry     48  46  49  54  50  50  51  50  51

Bush      50  53  51  45  49  49  47  48  46

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More turnout anecdotes

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Shortly before noon, almost half the registered voters in my East Loop precinct had already cast their ballots. Half. By noon.

There was just a short line when I got there, but the nice ladies who work the polling place year in and year out said they got slammed this morning. Waits between 45 minutes and an hour.

Down in southern Illinois, my brother Devin reports 45 minute waits in Harrisburg.

An Althoff volunteer and a friend of mine says McHenry County was at a 40-50 percent level by noon, and it wasn’t just the afternoon turnout coming out early. “People who haven’t voted in years are coming out to vote,” he said.

A Democratic Cook County Board member emailed a minute ago claiming that the county looks like 70 percent turnout minimum. “No soft spots. Most voters look like Dems.”

In Chicago’s 47th Ward, turnout was 50 percent by 10 o’clock this morning.

And a Republican just called to say that no way is turnout high in black Peoria precincts.

  2 Comments      


Even more turnout anecdotes

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Another politico heard from:

You are probably looking at a 1984(REAGAN) or 92 (Clinton) type turnout downstate–maybe the largest turnout in the last 20 years, which means upper 70’s maybe 80’s. I think both parties are getting their folks out, but the (expletive delted) swing voters are showing up too. Also, who the hell are these new voters–they are showing up too.

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Turnout update #2

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

I sent out an email to various friends and associates asking what they had heard about today’s Illinois turnout. Most of them are out working precincts, so I don’t expect a reply any time soon. But here’s what I’ve received so far.

In Peoria, “some precincts were above 50% of expected turnout by 8:30 am,” claims one Dem operative. Also, long lines in black precincts there, which is good for Rep. Ricca Slone. Heavy turnout in Kankakee.

A top GOP claims heavy voting in Sen. Pam Althoff’s McHenry/Lake district, but “scattered” in the Metro East. Not sure exactly what that means. A friend who is working for Althoff says McHenry County turnout is heavy.

DuPage: “…ancedotal evidence of a larger than normal early morning rush generally throughout, though there is some concern that that could be Democrats coming out.”

Long lines in Effingham County.

Heavy turnout in Kane County. “Strongest early morning turnout I’ve ever seen,” said one area Republican.  “Lines in numerous places b/f 8am!”

According to one Republican in southern Illinois, turnout is heavy throughout the region and Democratic GOTV is very visible. However, this person believes turnout is, “up across the board,” meaning increases among Republicans and Democrats.  Usually, Democrats believe that an increased turnout helps them.

Turnout appears heavy in Chicago as well. I’ve had several e-mails so far attesting to at least one-hour waits at polling places (I knew I should have voted absentee). Here’s part of one e-mail:

the line was wrapped around the outside of the building - very heavy. I waited for more than an hour to be able to vote. During the primary, I was in and out in 15 min.

A particularly attuned Dem operative had this to say:

Heavy everywhere….city, suburbs, downstate. I think records will be set.

I’m going to vote now. I’ve lived in this apartment for more than three years and never had to wait in any kind of line at my precinct polling place. I’m kinda curious about today’s situation.

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Turnout update

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

The Southern Illinoisan reports heavy turnout in state Sen. Gary Forby’s hometown.

By 8:30 a.m. today, Benton 1 precinct had 157 voters. That number is far higher than the precinct has had during a full day of voting during some past elections. One of the city’s largest precincts, Benton 1 has 1,016 registered voters.

The link is screwed up so I can’t see the rest of the story.

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Tuesday morning wrap-up

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

There was a little buzz about Alan Keyes’ new TV ad yesterday. The spot attacks Barack Obama on tort reform and taxes.

Democratic media consultants, however, say Springfield is the only town where the ad is being broadcast, and it ran twice on two stations last night.

Meanwhile, the two US Senate candidates voted this morning.

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Conservative political consultant and web publisher Dan Proft has some election-day predictions. Not sure I agree with every single one, but it’s definitely worth a read, even if the Keyes operative never mentions his candidate’s name (I assume that would be a conflict of interest).
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Rep. Ricca Slone (D-Peoria Heights) was whacked today with a negative headline and a not-so-flattering article in the Peoria Journal Star. She probably deserved it.
A flier circulated by state Rep. Ricca Slone’s campaign mischaracterizes the Journal Star’s editorial endorsement for opponent Aaron Schock, newspaper editors said Monday.

The Journal Star’s editorial board endorsed Schock, a Republican, in Saturday’s editions. But after the endorsement, Slone, D-Peoria, put out a flier that read “Journal Star explains why Slone is the best choice.”

The flier pulled several sentences written by the editorial board that were positive about Slone and critical toward Schock. The quotes were taken out of context, and the flier is “inaccurate and a misrepresentation of the newspaper’s editorial stance,” said Editorial Board Editor Barbara Mantz Drake.

The worst part for Slone is that her campaign was trying to make the case yesterday that Aaron Schock misrepresented an endorsement from a Democratic precinct committeeman who was no longer a committeeman and who is one of Schock’s tenants.

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Aaron Schock was the subject of a not so fabulous PJ-S story himself today.
The District 150 School Board will set up a three-member, outside panel to investigate whether board president Aaron Schock violated policy in accepting public political endorsements from district employees.

Schock is the Republican candidate in a highly publicized race against Democratic incumbent Ricca Slone for the 92nd House seat in the Illinois General Assembly.

Board Vice President Alicia Butler announced the panel during the School Board meeting Monday, the day before the election. She said three people will be nominated, and the board will be asked to approve them at the Nov. 15 meeting.

The investigative process is triggered automatically after a public complaint is filed, board policy states. Activist Ernestine Jackson filed the complaint last week.

Schock allowed Harrison School principal Aurthur Perkins and Peoria Federation of Teachers union president Terry Knapp to make campaign ads supporting him.

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Nastiness in Springfield. Quick, somebody notify the Tribune editorial board.
Without authorization from its own candidate, the Sangamon County Republican Party mailed a flier attacking a Sangamon County Board Democrat for brushes with the law, including a drunken driving conviction eight years ago.

County GOP Chairman Irv Smith said he wanted to send out the flier, which is aimed at Billy Earl, the incumbent Democratic board member in District 14. When party officials asked Earl’s Republican opponent, Joel Tjelmeland, about the idea some time ago, Tjelmeland refused to OK the attack mailer.

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The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s blog did a campaign fund wrap-up of the Supreme Court race yesterday that I somehow missed.
Circuit Court Judge Lloyd Karmeier (R-5th):
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has given $2.3 million for Karmeier’s campaign, mostly through the Illinois Republican Party ($2 million) and the Illinois Civil Justice League ($200K).  The American Tort Reform Association has given $420K for Karmeier’s campaign, mostly through the Illinois Civil Justice League ($385K) and the Manufacturers ($36K).   The Illinois Coalition for Jobs, Growth and Prosperity PAC has also sent funds Karmeier’s way, giving $150K through JUSTPAC and $8K directly.  For the general election, Karmeier has reported raising $4.2 million

Appellate Court Justice Gordon Maag (D-5th)
Trial lawyers have given at least $2.5 million to Justice Maag’s campaign, mostly through the Democratic Party (at least $2 million) and the Justice for All PAC (at least $500K).  For the general election, Maag has reported raising $3.5 million.

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The Daily Southtown has a story about schools closing on election day.
Dozens of schools across the Southland are closed today in what appears to be a new trend — keeping kids away on Election Day. [Snip]

School leaders say they need to schedule the staff development days anyway — and programming them for Election Day makes sense: There are fewer parking and traffic hassles for voters and less chance for strangers to come into contact with kids. In addition, it’s easier for teachers to get to the polls. [Snip]

Nearly half of suburban Cook County’s 1,400 polling places are located in schools, according to Scott Burnham, spokesman for the Cook County Clerk’s office.

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If you’re interested in generic campaign wrap-up stories, here are links to pieces in the State Journal-Register, the Chicago Tribune, and the Waukegan News Sun.

The Southern Illiniosan has several local political stories today, including some updated only on the web. Several of the links appear to be broken at the moment, but they should be fixed soon. You can find them here, here, here, here, and here. That last one is about a local fortune teller who predicts a Kerry victory.

  3 Comments      


Prez numbers

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

Pollster Rod McCulloch also did a statewide presidential poll over the weekend. Here are some of the results:

The Democratic stronghold of Chicago fronts Senator Kerry to a huge lead (76-21.8%). Suburban Cook County, formerly a reliable Republican region, also would vote for Kerry, by a margin of 58.5-38.4%, according to the poll. President Bush does hold a lead in three of the other four regions of the state, including the still solidly Republican Collar Counties (55-41), Northwest Illinois (50-44), and Central Illinois (51-44). The poll shows Senator Kerry holding a slight lead in Southern Illinois (48.5-47.0%).

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Pick a county

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

A hot topic of debate among insiders these days is which, if any, counties Alan Keyes wins today. Any guesses?

Pollster Rod McCulloch thinks Barack Obama could win them all.

“Barack Obama will set records tomorrow,” pollster Rod McCulloch said. “He is poised to join Alan Dixon and Jesse White as the only candidate to win every one of Illinois’ 102 Counties.”

Senator Obama leads sharply in every geographic region of the state, according to the poll. Senator Obama’s strongest region of the state is the City of Chicago, where he holds a whopping 87%-10.5% lead. Sen. Obama also leads by more than a three-to-one margin in Suburban Cook County (75.5%-20.1%). Even in the normally Republican Collar Counties, Sen. Obama has almost a two-to-one margin over Ambassador Keyes.

I sent an email to McCulloch asking for the downstate numbers. I’ll update this later.

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New poll shows big Bean trouble

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

I was out with some Democrats last night who were positively beaming about Melissa Bean’s chances today against Congressman Phil Crane. Their polling data is old, however. The Republicans have been saying all week that their more recent polling has Bean dropping like a stone. Bean’s negatives are higher than her positives, they claim, Republicans are “coming home” finally, and the hits against Bean for not living in the district and for opposing the Bush tax cuts are working.

If Rod McCulloch’s new poll is correct, then we have some proof that Bean is indeed in big trouble. If this poll is accurate and Crane has 52.8 percent just before the election, then he’s pretty much unbeatable. The only thing that could save Bean would be a tremendous, even historic, turnout.

…Congressman Crane leads Ms. Bean 52.8%-44.5% district-wide, the poll said.

“It appears that Republican voters are starting to come home to Phil Crane,” McCulloch said. In the new poll, voters who identified themselves as Republicans chose the incumbent by a margin of 80.5% to 18.9%. An earlier Illinois Poll, conducted in August showed Congressman Crane’s Republican support at 71.0%. McCulloch also noted that the Wauconda Congressman is being helped by a surge for Republican President George W. Bush in the district. President Bush leads Democratic Senator John Kerry in the district 57-37%. The August poll showed a much tighter Presidential race in the district (49-41).

In this election, the poll shows that Congressman Crane could do better in McHenry than in the other parts of the district. According to the poll, he leads in McHenry 55.7%-41.4%. The portion of the poll done in Lake County, which had long been a Crane stronghold, showed him leading 54.6%-44.0%. Democrat Bean did the best in the Cook County portion of the district, tying the Congressman 47.4-47.4%. Melissa Bean lives in Cook County, just outside of the 8th District.

While there is a slight gender gap in the district, the poll shows that Congressman Crane leads among both male (54.8%-41.5%) and female (50.9%-47.2%) voters. He also leads among every age group except the youngest (18-30 years old). Among that age group, Melissa Bean holds a substantial lead (58.9%-35.7%). Congressman Crane, however, holds a strong lead among senior citizens (57.1%-42.9%), and those 46-60 years of age (56.5%-41.1%).

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