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Question of the day

Monday, Feb 27, 2006

We’re three weeks and a day away from election day. Handicap the big races. Governor, lt. governor, treasurer, Congress (6th Dem and 8th GOP).

UPDATE: New Rasmussen poll shows Topinka every Republican dropping.

The governor has nonetheless gained ground since our last poll, when he did not reach even 40% support in a match-up with the strongest Republican candidate, State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.

Blagojevich now leads Topinka 42% to 36%. He leads businessman Jim Oberweis 49% to 37%, leads businessman Ron Gidwitz 47% to 33%, and leads State Senator Bill Brady 47% to 29%.

Though the governor is faring better, too many voters are leery of him for political comfort. Only 37% view him favorably, while an outsized 53% view him unfavorably. As for the job Blagojevich is doing, only 38% approve; 59% disapprove. […]

Topinka, currently seen as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, is viewed favorably by only 37%. Forty-one percent (41%) view her unfavorably–an 11-point jump since our last survey. That may be the result of sniping from the other Republicans.

About the same percentage, 36%, view Oberweis favorably, with 37% viewing him unfavorably and 28% not sure. Gidwitz and Brady are thus far known by even fewer voters.

Thanks to a commenter for the link.

UPDATE: It appears that Oberweis and Gidwitz also dropped. This is from last month’s poll [this month’s results in brackets]:

Blagojevich is tied with Ron Gidwitz at 40% [47-33]. The Governor holds a very slight lead over Jim Oberweis, 43% to 39%. [49-37]

They didn’t poll Brady last month.

Sorry, couldn’t help myself.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

88 Comments
  1. - Anonymous - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 5:48 am:

    Gov-Topinka (40%)
    Blagojevich (65%)
    Lt. Gov.-Birkett
    Treasurer-Giannoulias
    6th-Duckworth
    8th-Salvi

    By the way–A new Rasmussen poll has Blagojevich up 6% on Topinka, more on the others


  2. - Anon - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 6:11 am:

    Has anyone else noticed that there seems to be a lot fewer polls for this race than there were for past gubernatorial or senatorial primaries?


  3. - The Conservative - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 6:57 am:

    For Governor:Brady by the thinest of margins
    Blago easy
    Lt Governor: Rauschenberger by a thin margin


  4. - southernilrepub - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 8:53 am:

    I’m supporting Brady, but JBT wins with 36% of the vote. Lt. Gov race too close to call but 2-3% in either way. Blago wins his race with 55% of the vote. Some southern and central dems will stay home because EE is not a credible alternative. In the fifth judicial circuit Stewart wins.


  5. - St. Nickname - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 8:54 am:

    Rod with 70% all eisendrath votes from downstate
    Topinka by 2%
    Rauschenberger
    Mangieri 55%
    Duckworth
    Salvi


  6. - B Hicks - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:16 am:

    Rod 70+% Edwin’s not even a factor in this thing. We’re 3 weeks out, he blew what little chance he had.

    GOP candidate; I don’t know. It depends on what the undecided decide. Judy will probably take it, but it’s not set in brick, yet.

    Rauschenberger by a few.

    Mangieri


  7. - anon - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:35 am:

    Thanks anon 5:48 for reporting the latest polls.


  8. - anon - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:56 am:

    Polls

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/
    State%20Polls/February%202006/
    Illinois%20Governor%20February.htm


  9. - downstater - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:59 am:

    Rod (70%)
    Judy (50%)
    Joe (60%)
    Paul (65%)


  10. - Reagan Democrat - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 10:11 am:

    St Nick
    Senator Brady better hope you are wrong, if he causes JBT to squeek by he will never get elected again.
    Oby36%
    Raushy 40%
    Mcsweeney 35%
    Not duckworth
    Greek guy from city


  11. - Establishment Republican - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 10:35 am:

    Predicted winners-

    Governor:

    Dem- Blagojevich
    GOP- Topinka

    Lt Governor- Birkett

    Treasurer- Giannaoulis

    IL 6- Duckworth
    IL 8- McSweeney

    And Stroger narrowly over Claypool for Cook County Board President but that might turn out to be the story of the night. An upset would not be shocking.

    And as far as local Chicago tv is concerned on Primary Night, I predict Mike Flannery narrowly tops both Dick Kay and Andy Shaw in self-righteousness and arrogance.


  12. - Establishment Republican - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 10:38 am:

    Furthermore, I am also going out on a limb to predict that in IL 3, Lipinksi is nominated by the Democrats and Spanky the Clown defeats the neo-Nazi for the GOP nomination.


  13. - Establishment Republican - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 10:39 am:

    Furthermore, I am also going out on a limb to predict that in IL 3, Lipinksi is nominated by the Democrats and Spanky the Clown defeats the neo-Nazi for the GOP nomination.

    After his primary victory, Spanky’s website will feature “photos” showing him being congratulated by Abraham Lincoln, Ronald Reagan, Mancow Muller, Coach Ditka, Oprah, Michael Jordan, and Betty Loren Maltese at his victory party.


  14. - Reagan Democrat - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:12 am:

    “New Rasmussen poll shows Topinka dropping.”
    Oby has more support from Repubs than Judy + 1. His +&-’s are now equal. He caught her! Stick a fork in her she’s done. Her plan to announce late and hold on has failed. Oberweis will win the primary!


  15. - Stavros Popodopolis - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:14 am:

    Rich, who won the caption contest last week?


  16. - ISU REP - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:16 am:

    Oberweis winning the primary LOL…ah that’s rich…thanks for a good monday morning laugh…But let’s be serious now, what people say and who they actually vote for often turn out to be far different, anyone who takes too much stock in poll numbers will be sorely disappointed come election day


  17. - Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:16 am:

    Stavros, the winner is named at that post.


  18. - Walking Wounded - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:17 am:

    I sure hope you’re kidding, Reagan Democrat. If Obie wins the primary, there’ll be four more years of Blago-boy. Or, maybe that’s what you want.
    Nice picture, BTW.


  19. - Rick - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:19 am:

    Reagan Democrat 11:12, thanks for the laugh!


  20. - ISU REP - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:28 am:

    Well since some people are taking so much stock in the numbers, i’d like to point out that the two moderates (Gidwitz and JBT) are the only ones polling with the margin of error against Blago. Milk man and Brady aren’t even on the radar screen. I will utterly enjoy will Brady loses his home county…a man can dream can’t he?


  21. - SenorAnon. - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:35 am:

    Come on, man. The photo pushes critical journalist across the line into hack-blogger turf. You can do better than that. The line between humorous and gratuitous can be a thin one…

    Oh, and Establishment Republican, I disagree. Shaw walks off with that one every time.


  22. - Reddbyrd - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:36 am:

    GRod
    Mangieri
    Duckworth
    Stroger
    RonnieG
    Whinenberger


  23. - Louis G. Atsaves - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:39 am:

    Are any polls showing voter interest in the election? Why does it seem that the average voter is less than interested in all these races?

    Interested primary voters: (turnout)

    GOP 47%
    DEMOCRAT 40%

    8th Congressional GOP Primary

    McSweeney 35%
    Churchill 30%
    Salvi 22%

    GOP Governor:

    Topinka 33%
    Oberweiss 32%
    Gidwitz 17%
    Brady 15%
    Other Guy 3%

    DEM Governor:

    Blagojevich 65%
    Eisendrath 32%

    DEM Treasurer:

    Giannoulas 54%
    Other Unknown 46%

    (Sorry, as I’m Greek I have to go with the fellow Greek!)

    Margin of error: + or - 100%!

    Louis G. Atsaves


  24. - Anonymous - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:49 am:

    Best.Photo.Ever.

    Perhaps the definitive proof that he inhaled explains his style of governing.


  25. - scoot - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:54 am:

    How good are these poll numbers? How can it go from 47-36 JBT to 42-36? Blago in a matter of weeks. It’s not like there was some big scandal for her numbers to drop that much. Obviously different voters were contacted this time around. Gidwit’s ads won’t do that much damage.


  26. - ZC - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:57 am:

    I agree that Blago can beat Oberweis, but his failure in this poll to break 50 percent versus the Milkman has got to be a worrisome sign for Democrats. This is a mixed bag of results for Blagorgeous.


  27. - Reagan Democrat - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 12:02 pm:

    Walking w
    The only way Blago stays is if JBT wins the primary. Just today in this blog there are 3 stories that show corruption
    1.Guv defends himself, administration
    2.More Tollway troubles
    3.Governor misleading voters about jobs program.
    Wanna go back a month? This guy is a crook!


  28. - DOWNSTATE - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 12:25 pm:

    After the chicken in every pot and a Buick in every garage we would of expected him to jump up in the polls.The jump should of been more so this is telling us that the voting public has a real problem with this guy.


  29. - Reagan Democrat - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 12:31 pm:

    Rich

    Oberweis is in the margin of error (MOE) from last time 39%-37% and his fav/unfav’s are better then JBT’s. In fact he has more support (but within the MOE) then JBT 37%-36%. This is a good poll for Oberweis. Why poll against the GOV when we have a primary going on?


  30. - Anonie - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 12:57 pm:

    “Why poll against the GOV when we have a primary going on?”
    - Because we want to know who has a chance at beating Blago in the general, duh!


  31. - gopartisan - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 1:14 pm:

    Reagan Democrat:

    The Oberweis may have some things to smile about after reading this poll, but they shouldn’t get carried away. The things that is most “good” about it for him is that it is clearly (and, dare I say, unfortunately) bad for Brady. But only a fool (just an expression, not a personal or specific assessment of your acumen) would ignore the fact Blago’s lead over Topinka is only ½ of what it is over Oberweis. I don’t see how you can say that the only chance he has to win is if we nominate Judy.

    In this election (and most elections in this state’s foreseeable future), subtraction will be just as important as addition for Republicans. We must not only find a candidate on whom we as a party can all agree, but we must find one that will convince enough Democrats that it is neither worth voting for their nominee nor against ours – we need them to just stay home, at the very least.

    Clearly, this poll indicates that the GOP, within the MoE, will unite just as much behind Judy as they will behind Oberweis. But she apparently does a better job of fulfilling the second requirement listed in the previous paragraph.

    Bottom line: based on this poll, Topinka is still the GOP’s best shot at booting Blago.


  32. - gopartisan - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 1:37 pm:

    In addition, it is also worth noting that all of the “sniping” is only hurting Topinka and doesn’t seem to be benefiting anyone else, since Gidwitz and Oberweis are losing ground against the Guv as well.


  33. - Reagan Democrat - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 1:40 pm:

    Gopartisan
    When Judy ran the GOP there was an election (I will not cast blame on who brought that person here) there were 1.3 million votes cast. It can be said that total was the base conservative vote for this party in Illinois.

    How many of those voters will vote for JBT? Being optomistic I will say 1/2 of those voters will vote for JBT. Where do the votes come from to make up for those lost votes? Rod has signed the gay rights bill, so not from there. He has forced pharmasists to fill perscriptions for morning after pills, he has given 10 million for fetal tissue research. So not from Pro Choicers. He has raised the states min wage and has given everything the unions have asked for. So not from the Unions. I can show you where Oberweis can find them but I don’t see where JBT can find them


  34. - ISU REP - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 2:21 pm:

    Because many of those pro-choicers just happen to be women…I would like to see what the favorable rating of JBT vs. Blago is among women voters. Oberweis can have his illegal workers vote too, it simply wont be enough…you show me where all these 100,000+ extra conservative votes are going to come from. It’s a lot easier to convince those who voter for Rod base on his social record that his fiscal record isn’t that good, if they are offered a candidate with similiar social positions that might spend more wisely. On the other hand trying to convince moderates to vote for a hard righter simply won’t happen. We see that Blago has a majority unfavorable rating, the right moderate could knock him out.


  35. - B Hicks - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 2:30 pm:

    Three weeks ago all the R’s were celebrating the poll numbers. One regular poster, I won’t mention the handle, reveled with the proclamation, “numbers don’t lie”. Now, of course, who can trust those silly polls!

    Amazing!

    Plus, when JBT is up in the polls, she’s got, hands down.

    When Rod’s up in the polls, well, it’s not over, he can still be taken out.


  36. - gopartisan - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 2:43 pm:

    RD –

    I don’t understand. Where is Oberweis going to make up the 12% he needs just to tie Blago? The 1.3 million votes Keyes got represent 27% of the vote. What portion of that do you think is not already among the 37% Oberweis takes in this poll? If it’s anything less than ½, Rod still wins. It may be possible, but it’s a bet I’m not sure if it’s a bet I’m willing to take.


  37. - B Hicks - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 2:55 pm:

    For the last 3 months, Judy has been running on the, “vote for me, I’m the only Republican that stands a chance of unseating Rod.” She often referred to poll numbers.

    Looks like Jimmy just unseated the anointed one.


  38. - Papa Legba - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 2:59 pm:

    I haven’t seen many people sniping at JBT, it seems more like her lack of any sustained campaign is hurting her chances/numbers. The sniping that is going on is weak.

    If in fact as ISU REP states “many of those pro-choicers just happen to be women” I wouldn’t expect much to be proven with a Blago vs. JBT poll. It is quite obvious from many comments that Blago best support comes from otherwise occupied suburban housewives. They think he is wonderful for all of the initiatives he has passed for children, family etc. You know, all those press release iniatives he has turned into fully funded programs that are helping everyone in this state.


  39. - DOWNSTATE - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 3:17 pm:

    And just when you think it could not get any worse {better} the Black Caucus is on his butt to take his no tax pledge off the table.How many percentage points will that cost him if he does not.


  40. - Cassandra - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 3:29 pm:

    The Black Caucus always wants to raise taxes. Nothing new there. I think the message they are sending is in this instance is, if you
    want our support, send a whole lot of goodies (including school monies, state patronage, state contracts and so on) to areas where there are significant numbers of blacks, like Chicago.

    But who else are they going to vote for?

    It’s a don’t take us for granted statement, not a literal demand for raised taxes.


  41. - Anon - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 3:48 pm:

    Rich,

    Since there have been so few public polls on the Republican primary, how about giving us some info. on what the campaign internals are saying?


  42. - Conservative Proletariat - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 4:06 pm:

    Sorry,

    I think Topinka will lose (at least I hope) Because if she wins I will seriously consider voting for Rod in protest. If the republican party is going to run a canidate that smacks my social conservative views in the face, then I am sorry shy vote republican. I am a republican because I am conservative and if the party rejects my views, then I reject the party. I will def. not vote for her and may vote dem. just to remind the republicans of one simple fact…

    “You MAY lose because of Social Conservatives, but YOU WILL NOT win without us.”

    I am talking to a lot of conservatives who have the same view I do.


  43. - ISU REP - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 4:16 pm:

    And that’s why the Republicans are unable to win, because stubborn conservatives would rather nominate a candidate who can’t win than actually be accepting of something outside their comfort zone. Face it a socially conservative running for statewide office as a republican does becoming mayor of Chicago. It isn’t going to happen the delusions need to stop.


  44. - DOWNSTATE - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 5:06 pm:

    ISU REP I might add that they also fail to join in and try to make a positive change.It’s their way or nothing exactly the kind of people running the state now.


  45. - scoot - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 5:06 pm:

    Conservative Proletariat- seriously… grow up and realize that statewide isn’t conservative, because of Chicago…this isn’t Tennessee and thats why the RNC amongst other “groups” have or will go with the JBT/Birkett ticket. They realize this by just looking to the past GOP Guvs.


  46. - Reagan Democrat - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 5:22 pm:

    Gopartican
    Oberweis will win with southern Illinois Democrats and Reagan Dem’s from the trades. We all know that Blago won with the help of the southern Democrats, they are mostly conservative. It won’t be difficult for them to crossover, African American voters are very mad about the courting of the illegals from the Dem’s I’m not saying they will vote GOP but if it is made an issue they might stay home.


  47. - State worker - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 5:45 pm:

    If they ever have an election for the Governor of ice cream I’d vote for Oberwise. Other than that no way. GO JUDY!


  48. - SCS President - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 6:13 pm:

    If Judy wins the primary, I will highly consider staying home as a protest. When I judge people as a republican or democrat, i use this equation:

    More conservative views than liberal views = Republican.

    More liberal views than conservative views = Democrat.

    If our party wants to run a liberal, than I will not support my party nor vote for who it nominates. The republican party better wake up because if this happens, they will lose seats and races like crazy.

    There are numerous conservative organizations out there that are planning to run “stay at home” campaigns if JBT wins. I am not going to vote against the republican nominee or campaign against them. However, I will not vote for them or campaign for them and will tell others to do the same!

    JBT wins primary = Republican Party loses General!


  49. - Voting Union member - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 6:28 pm:

    That comment sounds like a 3 year old throwing a fit. So you stay at home and don’t vote you’ll show her. One thing your right about is the Republicans will lose alot of seats. But Judy will not be one of them. I must say I’ve been a voting Democrat for 40 years and this will be the first time I’ve seen a Republican for Governor I would feel good about voting for. Call her a liberal if you want to. I call her the only Republican I’ve ever known that is inclusive of ALL people in Illinois.


  50. - Conservative Proletariat - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 7:12 pm:

    First of all…

    I am not throwing a fit like a 3 year old.

    I will vote Republican as long as they are at least somewhat conservative. If they are liberal on some issues I suck it up and vote Republican because they are at least a little better then the Democrats.

    But in this case Topinka is a Democrat with a Republican name. Also people said the same thing about Reagan in California and he won. “Conservatives can’t win…blah blah” wrong! Conservatives can win if we run the right person who can detail our views in a way that appeals to the state.

    Judy is pro-choice, anti-traditional marriage, refuses to take a no-tax pledge, has promised to continue the policy of forcing people to give out the morning after pill against their religiion, and has ties to the George Ryan days.

    What in the world makes people think she is Republican?

    I can vote for every republican in the primary (even Gidwitch who I have serious problems with on Abortion, at least he says he will respect peoples religious rights), but Topinka is a republican in name only.

    If I have to choose between a Democrat and a fake Republican I will keep my principles rather then selling out to a (R) after the name thank you very much.


  51. - 47th Ward - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 7:15 pm:

    Since Rich isn’t offering any prizes, I’ll skip sharing my picks in the other races, saving that insight for pools that offer something, you know, for the effort.

    But the GOP governor’s is worth speculating on in public, so here is my thinking:

    The 2004 GOP Senate Primary produced a just over 700,000 total votes. That’s the ballpark estimate for this race, and that gets split as follows:

    In 2004, McKenna pulled almost 100,000, I’d give those to Topinka. Plus I’d give her 40% of JACK!’s winning total of 230,000, so give Topinka another 100,000. The remaining 60% of JACK!’s vote (130,000) gets split among Oberweis (50,000), Gidwitz (40,000) and Brady (40,000).

    I’ll give Oberweis as many votes this time as he got in 2004 (155,000), and add in the 50,000 JACK! votes he should pick up.

    Rauschenberger’s 2004 totals (130,000) get split between Gidwitz (40,000), Brady (40,000), give Oberweis some (10,000), and that leaves about 40,000 votes to be had.

    My wager is that these go the candidate endorsed by the Tribune. I’m going to climb out on a limb and guess that will be Topinka, who will therefore edge Oberwies 34% to 31%. Gidwitz and Brady each pull between 17% and 20%.

    Bet on it. Except be sure there is something to win if you happen to get lucky.


  52. - Anonymous - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 7:51 pm:

    Anti traditional marriage you say? Well I am one of those gay folks you speak of and I am proud that our State Treasurer takes time out every year to be in the Gay parade in Chicago. You see not all Republicans have such hate as you must have. Even if she does not get votes from people like you I know of approx. 1 million gay folks in Illinois that will welcome her.


  53. - anon - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 8:56 pm:

    Rich, you were right last week when you said that the primary season has been kind to Rod. Not only did all of his Republican opponents drop in support, but this poll shows Rod has risen significantly through the month in comparison.

    Blago’s opinion poll numbers mean little until you have a Republican candidate to compare him to. Against the clowns running for the Republican nod, Rod beats them all hands down in the General election.


  54. - ZC - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:13 pm:

    All I will say is, reading this commentary as a veteran of the Glenn Poshard campaign, it’s fun to see the other side twisted into a political mess for a change. George Ryan was able to move to the political center during the 98 race because his historical credentials with the Republican base were perceived as solid. Judy won’t have that luxury. No matter where she moves in the general, someone will accuse her of betrayal.

    And I have no doubt that a lot of gay and lesbian voters will seriously consider voting for Judy, but faced with two pro-gay candidates I suspect a lot of them disenchanted with Rod will hold their nose and stick with the party that has traditionally supported their cause more.

    Here’s a question for discussion: if she wins the nomination, will / should Judy march in the North Side gay and lesbian pride parade this year?


  55. - world peace - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:21 pm:

    With an asleep at the wheel governor leading the polls, we should all move to Arkansas (well how about Missouri?).


  56. - scoot - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:21 pm:

    Cons. Prolalalala. Some of you just don’t get it and if you stay home after the primary then your not helping republicans at all. You won’t be helping conservative joe birkett either. A Blago win in 06 means the dems will control the mansion for as long as they want.


  57. - steve schnorf - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:37 pm:

    Gov Blagojevich-high 60s%
    EE-30% max

    JBT 40% or a little below
    Oberweis-high 20s
    Gidwitz-20% o less
    Bill Brady- high teens to 20%


  58. - Swami - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:43 pm:

    Blo-puffer-vich has too many investigations going on. Judy will be the next Governor.


  59. - Anon - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 9:52 pm:

    This has been an interesting election when it comes to polls. We see few polls. When we have a poll they poll Blagojevich against the republican candidate’s instead of the republican’s heads up. When they finally poll the GOP heads up they leave out Brady. It seems to me they want to protect Judy’s front runner status. Her front runner status seems to be slipping even with the strange polls but she has a real problem with 37% favorable and 41% unfavorable Blagojevich going to turn her into toast fast if she wins. If Gidwitz’s little attacks cut her lead by 11% just think what a full frontal attack by Blagojevich will do.

    I am tired of the Oberweis people whining about Brady being the spoiler. If Oberweis is such a great candidate and has the money go out and win the 25% undecided vote in the last poll and win the election.


  60. - Billyclinton - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 10:04 pm:

    Blagojevich 59.5
    Eisendrath 40.5

    Topinka narrowly edges Oberweiss

    Mangieri 53
    Giannulious 47

    Mike Jacobs 60.5
    Paul Rumler 39.5


  61. - SCS President - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:33 pm:

    It’s not about being a whining conservative, if JBT wins over Oberweis by a slight edge, Brady will be seen as the spoiler.

    On the otherhand, if JBT wins over Brady by a slight edge, Oberweis will be seen as the spoiler.

    Personally, I think Brady has more to lose by being the spoiler, don’t you? If Oberweis is seen as the spoiler, he goes home after the election and back to business as usual. If Brady is seen as the spoiler, he faces hell from his now-former conservative allies.

    If it comes out to JBT beating Oberweis by a slight edge, I would definitely not want to be Bill Brady– the guy that lost conservatives another election.

    Another theory to look at, do you think JBT was planning a run for Governor back in 2004 when she, as party chair, brought in Allen Keyes? If Jim Oberweis (the #2 man of the day), were bumped up to take Jack’s spot, and lost, that would have likely put him in front-runner status for this gubernatorial race. Maybe it is just my conspirical mind working, or maybe it’s the truth!


  62. - Reagan Democrat - Monday, Feb 27, 06 @ 11:39 pm:

    Anon
    Brady would not matter if he didn’t attack Oberweis. He was goig to drop out if Edgar got in as a amatter of fact he claims the title of a “Young Jim Edgar” on his web site. Nobody said it was going to be easy but every point will count. Brady staying in is fair but stop claiming the mantle of conservative savior. Since if Oberweis loses it will be by the margin Bradys gets or less. He will have to live with his decision but in coming elections it will not be forgotten since it is the same people that are called on to help conservative candidates.


  63. - logo - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 12:19 am:

    It seems that there are alot of peopel that think this is a race between Oby and JBT. Gidwitz is coming on strong and will do enough damage to JBT to retire her, but not enough to win. Oby and Brady split most conservative votes but Oby has no real base. Not a true consistant conservative. I think Brady wins the by of the most thin of margins. 28% JBT 27% Oby 23% and Ron 22%Very low turn out helps the conservatives. Fact is he is the best and purest to go up against Blogo


  64. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 12:22 am:

    Will you anonymous prevaricators stop trying to say JBT brought in Keyes! It’s like you subscribe to the communist “big lie” theory: repeat it often enough and people will start to believe it.
    Keyes was brought in by a well-known small group of conservative State Central Committee members and their advisors. Virtually no one (except them) thought it was a good idea, and told them so. I believe their primary goal was to stoke conservative turnout to try to pick up some legislative seats, especially against Grunloh and Forby. You might argue that it worked on Grunloh, since Keyes actually carried some counties in his district, though if you look at the 02 vote, he might well have lost in 04 anyway.
    But, no one who knows anything about what happened would ever say that JBT brought in Keyes.


  65. - SCS President - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 1:27 am:

    My apologies, I thought she was the Party Chair of the party that decided to bring in Allen Keyes. I must be mistaken!


  66. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 4:18 am:

    Photo just goes to show you, it really is only the hair that looks good and that’s becoming debatable.
    Too much of a bush for me.


  67. - Anon - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 7:33 am:

    I think you miss the point. You have to run to win not worry about the other guy any part of another persons vote including Judy’s, Gidwitz’s or Martin’s affects your vote. After all Judy is getting conservative pro-life votes. You can complain that Brady is taking your vote but so is everyone else. That’s why they call them elections. You may state that since their both conservatives their taking each others vote but who’s says it’s not Brady that is suppose to win and Oberweis is in the way. There should be no blame run your race good luck


  68. - The Conservative - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 7:48 am:

    I have to agree with Logo. I think Brady wins with the slim margin. Obie has the radical right, his personality is shall we say a little rough. Brady on the other hand has depth and is steadly grownig as people become aware of him and that he is real. You over look the obvious, Brady has come up while Obie has dropped. I see Brady in a slim upset that will then bring him to the for front to take on Blago. Should Obie win there is no way he can beat Blago. Only Brady is the new face that the voters can get excited about.
    I also have to agree with the person that said should JBT win many conservatives will take a walk. We are tired of the old boys or girls thinking they can insult our beliefs and expect us to show up. Having a Lt. Gov’s slot isn’t enough to turn our heads. Better wake up we are mad. All the trying to blame us isn’t going to fly this time. Either we are at the table as partners or try and win without us. You had better take a look in the mirror, every time a conservative runs (iam talking to the JBT types) you cannot support him or her. But let a liberal like JBT run and we must unite for the good of the party. That song has been played to many times.


  69. - roy slade - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 8:22 am:

    Roddog- 59-63%
    EEE- 34-37%

    JBT- 39-43%
    Milkman- 25%
    Gidwitz- 18-23%
    Brady- 18-23%

    Greek candidate- 46%
    Mangeri- 40%


  70. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 8:39 am:

    CP; so, you couldn’t vote for Thompson, Edgar, Percy…? Doesn’t seem to put you right in the heart of the party.


  71. - The Conservative - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 9:09 am:

    To Steve, I not only voted for them I was a coordinator for each. I have been a loyal soldier, that is why I have the right to make my statement. I have been there as one of the hardest workers. See that guilt junk dosen’t work anymore, we are awake, we have played your game, now you have to deal with us.


  72. - Reagan Democrat - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 10:22 am:

    conservative
    If you have been a coordinator you know that you have to do SOMETHING to move your numbers! Why waste a vote on Brady when he can but will not spend his own money? He has promised and promised that he would have from 3 to 5 million dollars to spend. He lied. He is and will stay in the single digets until he does something to change that. It is simple if you can win by not spending money everyone would do it! A man with no name recognition going statewide for the first time, who is an elected offical knows what it takes to win. I bet if you check and see he spent more money on his congressional run then he did on the Governors run. The only question then is why is he running? Is he close to the combine? Why call your self a young Jim Edgar?


  73. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 10:36 am:

    RD

    Brady doesn’t call himself “a young Jim Edger.” If you really cared about the truth (or would read the entire story you referenced), you’d acknowledge that a fellow legislator who happened to endorse Brady - something Mr. Oberweis knows nothing about since he hasn’t received a single endorsement from a Republican legislator - called Brady “a young Jim Edger” and the Southern Illinoisan ran the quote as their headline.

    But an Oberweis supporter would never let the facts get in the way of more rhetoric.

    Oberweis clearly ran as a moderate just four years ago. Now he’s the self-annointed savior of the conservatives? If there’s a spoiler in this race, it’s the Milkman.

    Give it up. How many more races does he have to lose before he realizes he cannot galvanize enough real support even in his own party to win an election?


  74. - The Conservative - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 1:38 pm:

    Reagan Dem: I know both parties, Brady and Obie. The choice is easy. Brady is the real deal. Obie needs to drop out, he cannot win in the fall. Many good conservatives do not trust Obie. He has ran as a Pro Choice candidate before, he has alinged himself with the extreme eliment of the party and is short tempered. He dosen’t have what it takes to appeal to the Christian Right, he is not one of us. Brady is, therefore the choice is real easy and a pleasure to work for.


  75. - The Conservative - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 1:41 pm:

    Ps to Reagan Dem, Brady is in double didgits and rising.


  76. - SCS President - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 4:01 pm:

    “He is not one of us”… Maybe you should take a look at who Obie has been endorsed by opposed to Brady. Brady has been endorsed by one organization which he is always exclaiming and this happened in September.

    Maybe you are not “one of us”


  77. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 5:35 pm:

    Conservative is right to call Bill Brady the real deal. He a man of integrity and honor. In fact, I heard that this past weekend he witnessed a car accident and ran to help, ripped off his shirt and wrapped it around the head a young boy who was injured in the accident. This is a man of honor who would show the same caring and integrity in the role of governor.


  78. - Bradys the Guy - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 5:40 pm:

    SCS: As a very young conservative, you can be forgiven your lack of knowledge of the conservative in this state. Oberweis has “flipped” on a variety of issues to endear himself with Jack Roeser this time around. And Oberweis has leavened his support with money…or the promise of money. Brady has a genuine legislative track record as a conservative…just ask Ralph Rivera of Right to Life or Paul Caprio of Family PAC or John McNeal of West Suburb. Republicans. By the way Life Federation and Citizens for Life have both given Brady a 100% rating as a candidate for governor. The gun owner groups are also vouching for Brady’s commitments. So much for your claim that only “one” conservative “group” supports Brady…. that “group” by the way was the Conservative Summit, which was a caucus of conservative leaders of nearly every group (except Roeser’s, who boycotted it). It takes more to vote conservative for the record than to spout off “conservatism” on the campaign trail. Oberweis has no track record of belonging to or leading any conservative organization.

    Also, look at Eagle Forum and Schlafly’s local track record… they both sold George Ryan as the “genuine conservative” in 1998 and look what happened. There is no guarantee that Oberweis is going to make conservatives happy should he obtain the Governor’s Mansion; it costs him nothing to promise the moon now.


  79. - Anon - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 7:41 pm:

    Reagan Democrat, I don’t know were you getting your information but you should find a new place. Brady has spent over $150.000 dollars of his own money so far. The total spent according to his D2 is over a million and only Tim Johnson who I helped spent over a million so you’re wrong on that too. We won’t know how much he spends but money isn’t a problem. Brady is moving big time down here. Unless you have been kicked to the curb the only sign you will see is Brady’s. 45% of the vote is downstate and we will turn out because we are tired of being treated like the ugly puppy.


  80. - anon - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 8:11 pm:

    give it up reagan dem …. you are just blowing hot air as usual. why let facts ruin a good story ???? someone disconnect his computer …. please!!!!!!!!!


  81. - anon - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 8:51 pm:

    You know I’m not going to “prognosticate” nor offer an opinion on this race & its outcome only to say , give these folks a chance ! They are all working hard in their respective campaigns, all hoping to win. No “ghost” campaigns or side deals of something noone really has control over. No one is “spoiling” anyone as each got in it to win … or so we hope. So quit blaming & giving the impression that some our “superior” to others by their own accounts …”so please step aside” . Give me a break. They formed committees, run statewide putting out their message that will either be accepted or rejected by the primary voters of this state. The effort is there & I’m sure all would have other things to do rather than this if the idea wasn”t to win. The stuff some people put down as “logic” defies all explaination in some cases & the funny thing is they actually believe it !? Scary isn’t it. The out & out lies & distortion they resort to to get a point accross because they can apparently with their message or any other way. The “whisper campaigns” & absolute lies especially by one campaign {hint: a 2 time non-winner} It’s like “To make me look good I must first make the other guy/ gal look real bad !” ;and they wonder why people don’t vote or care. The Dem’s just sit and laugh because they know we lose sight of the prize & that’s defeating Bladgo in Nov. & turning this state around. I say work hard for your candidates, stay on message & give the voters a real choice. Despite the polls it’s the one in March that counts. Ill. GOP voters that vote in primaries are better informed in my opinion & they’ll choose the guy or gal of their choice not someone of trickery … there is far too much at stake! Whomever wins I hope they unite behind {doubtful}. This GOP is in trouble & too bad we are. The current state chairman needs to go right along with some county chairman as well. I hope who wins moves to re-build the GOP or its more of the same.


  82. - SCS President - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 8:54 pm:

    Hey 7:41, I was just downstate and Oberweis signed outnumbered Brady’s at least 5 to 1. I believe I even saw more Gidwitz and Rauschy signs than Brady.


  83. - anon - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 9:04 pm:

    To the SCS Prez. “wrongo” !! Brady to date has been endorsed or supported by 31 individuals &/ or organizations !! Yes, 31 & more coming including legislators, GOP organizations & conservatives, right to life groups & 2nd ammendment folks too !!


  84. - anon - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 9:19 pm:

    oby signs , not many big ones, & if you count yard type signs ,the ones in every vacant lots and country ditch banks and highways, ya’ about a million of those everywhere, not a lot of them in front of homes and businesses and places that matter. sign location list is basically an Ill. map with fields & highway intersections marked. Hey !”GOT SIGNS??”


  85. - Anon - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 10:00 pm:

    Add the Political Victory Fund of the Illinois State Rifle Association which is HUGE! As an endorsement for Brady.

    Yes Anon 9:19 your right Obie’s signs are every where except were they belong and Brady’s are were they belong and there are far more then Obie’s, down here where I live not just visit.


  86. - FrustratedRepublican - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 10:44 pm:

    Anyone who crawls out from under their rock knows there are hardly any Gidwitz signs anywhere, Brady has signs on private property all over the state, and Oberweis has a millions signs on state right of way and virtually nowhere else.

    The conservative legislators, organizations and now the state rifle association are endorsing him, and suburban Republicans finding out who he is are starting to jump on board, too. Hope he keeps it up.


  87. - FrustratedRepublican - Tuesday, Feb 28, 06 @ 10:56 pm:

    That should have read:

    The conservative legislators, organizations and now the state rifle association are endorsing BRADY, and suburban Republicans finding out who he is are starting to jump on board, too. Hope he keeps it up.


  88. Pingback BlogWonks » Blagojevich is getting desperate - Monday, May 1, 06 @ 6:32 am:

    […] Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich is really grasping at straws if the best he can do is put out out ads attacking his challenger’s attendence record for meetings the pensions board she used to serve on. Blagojevich’s poll numbers continue to be lousy, and he’s in a real fight to try and stay in the Governor’s job. Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s campaign unveiled another TV commercial Sunday, this time attacking state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka’s record of attendance on a board that manages state pension investments. […]


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