This just in… Tribune/WGN poll numbers
Tuesday, Feb 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Blagojevich 62
Eisendrath 18
Other 2
Undecided 18
Topinka 38
Oberweis 17
Gidwitz 11
Brady 8
Other 2
Undecided 25
Chicago Tribune/WGN TV survey of 1200 voters, 600 Democrats and 600 Republicans. Poll taken 2/2 through 2/6.
More in tomorrow’s Capitol Fax, including how this stacks up with other internal polls.
UPDATE: Comments closed on this one. Head to today’s QOTD.
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Competitive Electric Market Key to Healthy Economy
Tuesday, Feb 7, 2006 - Posted by Capitol Fax Blog Advertising Department
(The following is a paid advertisement.)
The Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) took bold and necessary leadership by voting unanimously to approve a competitive bidding system as the means by which electric utilities should purchase power. Thanks to the ICC, our state is on the right path.
As the debate surrounding Illinois’ electric industry has grown increasingly heated, the United Neighborhood Organization (UNO) has endorsed a clear message — we need a competitive market for electricity where complicated policy decisions are made by the experts at the ICC. The ICC’s approval of the competitive bidding process confirmed the legitimacy of our message.
Reliable electricity, the cornerstone of a strong economy, is crucial to UNO. As one of Chicago’s largest community-based Latino organizations, UNO has successfully assisted low-income minorities in areas of education, citizenship and homeownership. To continue our mission of empowering Illinois Latinos and ensuring job opportunities for the newly immigrated, UNO greatly depends on a reliable infrastructure for electrical power.
Just as the Latino community cannot afford to put job growth and a healthy economy at risk, Illinois cannot afford to threaten its electric industry. The ICC has ruled in favor of a competitive marketplace for electricity; let’s not turn back on their well-informed decision.
Juan Rangel is CEO of UNO, the United Neighborhood Organization. He also serves as an Advisory Committee member of Consumers Organized for Reliable Electricity, a coalition of business, labor, community and energy groups.
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Rasmussen will be polling the governor’s race every month. Here are some of the latest numbers (guess I should subscribe to get more details).
State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka (R) leads Governor Rod Blagojevich in an early look at the 2006 campaign for Governor of Illinois.
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Topinka with 48% of the vote while the incumbent Governor attracts 37%.
Blagojevich does better against two other potential challengers. Blagojevich is tied with Ron Gidwitz at 40%. The Governor holds a very slight lead over Jim Oberweis, 43% to 39%.
None of the candidates are viewed favorably by 50% or more of Illinois voters. Blagojevich and Topinka have far higher name recognition than the other candidates.
Topinka is viewed favorably by 46% of voters and unfavorably by 30%. For Blagojevich, it’s 40% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Gidwitz and Oberweis, a plurality don’t know enough about them to have an opinion.
Illinois voters are evenly divided as to whether the nation’s top priority in Iraq should be getting U.S. soldiers home as soon as possible or insuring a free and stable Iraq.
Notice that Bill Brady isn’t mentioned. This is the second time in recent weeks that a pollster has neglected to include Brady (the Post-Dispatch’s pollster was the first).
Thanks to a commenter for the tip.
Discuss.
UPDATE: I just called Rasmussen and they said Brady will be included in the next survey. Unfortunately for Brady, that won’t be until just before the March primary.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Feb 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
As I told you in today’s Capitol Fax, Ron Gidwitz made a blunt comment about Jim Oberweis during a Daily Herald editorial board meeting.
Republican governor candidate Ron Gidwitz said Monday that foe Jim Oberweis is unelectable because Democrats will paint him as a “racist bigot.†[…]
Gidwitz’s running mate, state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger of Elgin, was discussing why Gidwitz was a better choice as the GOP governor nominee than Oberweis of Sugar Grove, state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka of Riverside or Bloomington state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington.
“With all due respect, I think Jim Oberweis is a very interesting guy and he’s a nice guy,†Rauschenberger said. “But I think the Democrats will turn him, fairly or unfairly, into, you know, potentially, uh, a, what’s the word I’m looking for?â€
“Racist bigot,†Gidwitz interjected.
“Well,†replied Rauschenberger. “I think it would be very tough for him to win a general election.â€
When asked later if he personally thinks Oberweis is a racist bigot, Gidwitz said: “Absolutely not. I think he may be at times insensitive.â€
Question: Did Gidwitz go too far, or is his prediction prescient? Explain.
By the way, as a little aside and not related to the question:
Gidwitz also said he’s not upset that running mate Rauschenberger has backed away from an earlier pledge not to accept the Republican lieutenant governor nomination if Gidwitz lost the governor’s race.
I’m sure.
[Emphasis added]
UPDATE: Hear the quote yourself. mp3 or wav.
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The pension trap
Tuesday, Feb 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
The Tribune’s editorial board makes an excellent point in today’s edition.
Last June, the state’s five pension systems had $58 billion in assets but $97 billion in accrued liabilities. That 60 percent funding ratio is one of the worst in the nation for state systems.
The liabilities will keep growing quickly. Even after all the borrowing and raiding, the state has to come up with $1.37 billion for pension funds in the next year, according to a bipartisan legislative panel that monitors state finances. That’s $437 million more than this year. And that difference is about half of all the new revenue the state expects to rake in next year.
That doesn’t leave a lot for new spending on schools, universities, health care, child welfare, law enforcement, prisons and everything else.
It gets much worse. In 2008, the state has to put $1.98 billion into the pensions. In 2010 that soars to $3.4 billion. And it keeps going up from there.
So no one–not the governor, not his opponents, not the 177 members of the House and Senate–should be allowed to talk about flashy new ideas that cost money. They don’t have the money. It’s going to be soaked up by the pensions.
I hope the Trib’s reporters (and everyone else) keep this in mind during the upcoming campaign. No ethereal billion-dollar “corruption tax” will take care of that problem. Small cuts in the bureaucracy won’t do it either. Tax cuts will make the problem worse.
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Cook County president’s race
Tuesday, Feb 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Cook County Board President John Stroger began airing TV ads this week. Word is the cable buy alone was $100,000. He’s also on network TV. I saw it yesterday while I was in Chicago and it looks a little weak.
Rahm Emanuel splits with party, endorses old friend Claypool. Mayor Daley and Emanuel are very close, so you wonder if the machine is hedging its bets.
While Stroger did get Daley’s endorsement, Daley said he wouldn’t bad-mouth Claypool, who twice was his chief of staff.
The president of Friends of the Parks tells Zorn “parks improved dramatically under Forrest’s leadership,” contradicting President Stroger’s contention that Claypool “destroyed” the park district and was the “worst person who ever ran the parks.”
Claypool promises to downsize government, but can’t say how he’ll do it.
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The AP flushes out some of Bill Brady’s more potentially controversial opinions.
Brady calls himself a “mainstream conservative.” He says that means he is conservative on social issues but is more concerned about getting things done than fighting ideological battles.
He opposes abortion even in cases of rape and incest, but Brady said as governor he would “move incrementally” and look for common ground on issues of parental consent and late-term abortion.
Brady opposes gay marriage because it doesn’t promote “a procreative society.” He also opposes civil unions. “It’s marriage in another name,” Brady said.
He also disagrees with Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s efforts to expand government health care for the working poor - not just because he thinks Illinois can’t afford it but because it promotes reliance on the government.
“It’s a socialistic principle, and I’m a free-market capitalist,” Brady said.
No mention of school prayer or teaching the bible in public schools however.
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Morning shorts
Tuesday, Feb 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
I-Pass chief dumped. No solid explanation offered.
Old Champaign County arrest warrant apparently still on the books for GOP gadfly Andy Martin.
LaHood was apparently against reform before he was for it.
Jack O’Malley contradicts a prosecution witness, testifies that Ryan “never suggested to him that his office shouldn’t investigate state employees accused of corruption.”
The Illinois Campaign for Political reform has posted its questionnaire and a list of signatories of its Code of Campaign Fair Practices.
Topinka hit on contribution.
Duckworth hits the mailboxes this week, Scott already has some pieces in the hopper, but Cegelis doesn’t have money for direct mail.
Remember that old House chair that was for sale on eBay? Nobody bid enough.
Guv wants to reduce nursing shortage.
Laski resigns. Good riddance.
More use of taxpayers’ money for campaigny expenses:
Our daughter is almost 8 months old. She is a healthy and happy little girl. She’s regularly visited the pediatrician and gotten all of her shots as needed.
The other day we received a congratulatory card from Gov. Blagojevich on the birth of our daughter. In the card it also reminded us to have her shots by two months of age. Now this card is 8 months behind in her development. It is pointless because we’ve taken care of all her shots to this point. Not only is it not sincere, it is a waste of tax payers money by wasting resources and time and it is irrelevant to anyone who can afford it and regularly takes their kids to the doctor.
Gov. Rod Blagojevich and Rep. Ron Stephens square off on “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” tonight at 10.
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6th District update
Tuesday, Feb 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
The Democratic candidates discuss the issues.
Neither Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth, technology consultant Christine Cegelis nor college professor Lindy Scott thinks the landmark Roe v. Wade case legalizing abortion nationally should be overturned.
But Scott, who teaches at Wheaton College, calls himself “pro-life†anyway and points to his membership in a group called Democrats for Life. […]
Requiring parental notification when a minor wants an abortion also divides the Democrats. Cegelis opposes such a law while Scott supports it.
Duckworth’s position, though, has been elusive. She told the Daily Herald last December she opposed parental notification. Asked Friday, she initially said the idea appealed to her if a judicial bypass for cases of incest and abuse were included. When pressed, Duckworth said, “I really don’t know.†[…]
None of the candidates support legalizing gay marriage. Cegelis took a bit of a libertarian approach, calling it an issue for individual states to decide.
“I think if it were on the ballot (in Illinois), I’d probably vote for it,†said Cegelis, of Rolling Meadows. “But I don’t think we’re ready for it. It’s not something I’d push for.â€
Read the whole thing.
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