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Wednesday, Aug 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Aug 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller How do you think the media has treated Gov. Rod Blagojevich so far? Has it been too hostile, not hostile enough or just about right? Please use examples.
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Charlie makes the case
Wednesday, Aug 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller I haven’t talked to a single person in the last week outside of the Topinka campaign who believes Judy Baar Topinka can win the governor’s race. Gov. Blagojevich’s boffo fundraising report has only reinforced that notion this week. Charlie Johnston begs to differ. Johnston, a smart Republican political operator and a friend, writes at Illinoize that he is “a bit astonished”that the “Topinka can’t win” attitude has taken hold among pundits and bloggers. Charlie begins by recounting the governor’s extremely early and very expensive TV ad campaign and goes from there. What was really striking about that period was that Blagojevich could not coax his own numbers above 50%. What was also striking about it was that with several million dollars of effort, he only managed to push Topinka into the mid 30s, instead of annihilating her. For six weeks of sustained effort and millions of dollars spent, Blagojevich barely got the equivalent of a field goal - and that’s not a sign of strength. He also makes a point that most of us who follow this stuff closely always try to keep in mind. You don’t need all the money in the world; just enough to clear the threshold that gets your message across. In a gubernatorial general election in this race, the first five million you raise is critical. If, after that, you raise another 50 million, it is not even half as meaningful as that first five - because that’s what gets you past the threshold. There is one thing missing in all of this, though, and that’s the national Republican collapse. Charlie Cook wrote yesterday that the upcoming November election appears to be shaping up as “a very large tidal wave” for the Democrats. Whether the governor’s problems create a reverse impact here is the ultimate question. If you knew that Barack Obama’s campaign had the goods on millionaire frontrunner Blair Hull and had already planned how best to use that devastating information would you have changed your mind about his chances three months before the US Senate primary? You didn’t know, of course, because it had to remain secret to be effective. I really don’t know who will win this race, and I never have. I don’t know what sort of secret bombs each candidate plans to throw, and neither do the rest of us. Topinka’s problems with her right flank could be overcome with the corruption issue, but then again maybe not. There are a billion factors involved. Anyway, your turn to discuss.
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More on the governor’s “mystery debt”
Wednesday, Aug 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The AP ran a pretty standard story on the subject. Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s re-election campaign wouldn’t say Tuesday whether its huge legal bills during the first half of the year stem from criminal investigations of the administration’s hiring practices. The Tribune reminded us that before the governor’s campaign clammed up, it did discuss the fees back in February. In February, when the campaign reported spending about $40,000 in legal fees, campaign aides acknowledged that the money in part covered legal work for the federal and state probes. Here’s a great quote: “The money was spent to make sure we were doing everything right,” Nix said. “I’m not going into any more detail than that.” The Daily Herald leads with the Ryan stuff. Four years ago, Rod Blagojevich won the governor’s race with a strategy that largely relied on connecting his Republican rival to scandal-plagued Gov. George Ryan. But turns it back on Topinka. The situation illustrates the political problems Topinka and almost any other Republican has in trying to play the “Ryan card†for political gain. Ryan, the former speaker of the Illinois House, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and one-term governor, was immensely popular within many political circles and helped numerous candidates before being tainted by scandal late in his tenure. And OneMan calculates that to spend $722,000 since December at $500 an hour works out to… …on average about 206 partner hours a month or 6.8 hours a day for each day of a 31 day month.
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Is it happening again?
Wednesday, Aug 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Between them, the two men running for Southern Illinois’ open appellate court seat have raised more campaign cash so far this year than the candidates for the state Supreme Court in 2004 did in the same period. A replay would require the big national groups stepping in. It would also require people like Democratic Party of Illinois Chairman Michael Madigan to make it a top priority. I don’t see things spiralilng that far out of control, but I should probably start paying much closer attention to this race. Your thoughts? On a somewhat related note, the Madison County Record had an interesting little story yesterday entitled: Metro East plaintiff’s attorneys withholding financial support from governor.
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Oy, part 162,410
Wednesday, Aug 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The Sun-Times broke this story and today the editorial page follows up. When a fired suburban deputy police chief can turn up as the No. 2 official in the State Toll Highway Authority inspector general’s office and no one seems to know how it happened, it’s time to ask a basic question: If not clout, then what? Also, the governor has repeatedly claimed that his inspectors general are referring all cases of alleged criminal behavior to law enforcement, but that doesn’t seem to have happened here.
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Morning shorts
Wednesday, Aug 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller · Krol hits Roskam campaign staff problems · “The Republican challenger in the race for state comptroller has a plan she says will speed up payments to hospitals and pharmacies for their care of low-income patients. Carole Pankau said today she would set up a separate account to receive federal reimbursement of state Medicaid expenditures.” · “[Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr.] said, ‘Listen, while everybody’s talking about mayor and everything else, we’re picking off state rep seats. We want to pick off aldermanic seats,’†Coconate said. “He said, ‘Now, in November, it’s a possibility. If Daley doesn’t run, I might run…I am not going to be the guinea pig to run against Daley.’†· Utility yields to state, vows mercury cuts · Daley fears `big-box’ tax loss - Change in revenue burden could affect property taxes, he hints · Editorial: Digging out of a hellhole · Letter: It is unfortunate that the presence of public officials at Boys State has declined. · Marin: A word to Meeks: Words do matter · Marion to join Frontier League in 2007 · Organization governor spurned contributed to his campaign · Champaign American blogger calls it quits · Is Hastert still man of the House? · Democrat challenge has Greens seeing red · The Kankakee Daily-Journal now has space for reader comments on its website. The state won’t block the paper. The state only blocks blogs. How unfair is that?
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Maybe Thompson will become a Republican again
Tuesday, Aug 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller [Bumped to the top and updated The fundraising totals are covered in another post. This “mystery debt” to Winston & Strawn needs its own space. …the Democratic incumbent has headaches of his own, specifically a whopping $687,839 in legal fees that his spokeswoman declined to detail beyond saying that the “vast majority” goes toward “making sure we do everything right.” […] Excuse me, but that’s complete bull. Winston & Strawn charges a lot of money, but you don’t run up $722,000 in bills since December of 2005 just for “double-checking and triple-checking” fund-raising. Turns out, the campaign had a different story for the Tribune. A campaign spokeswoman said the debt represented charges the campaign is questioning, but she declined to say if any of the law firm’s work was related to state and federal investigations into hiring, contracting and fundraising in the administration. […] Like I said in today’s Capitol Fax, a dispute over a few thousand dollars is one thing, but I cannot believe that there’s a disagreement over half million dollars in charges. UPDATE: The plot thickens. The governor’s campaign originally reported a $687,839.59 debt to Winston & Strawn, then revised the report 14 minutes later to a $536,022 debt. UPDATE 2: Topinka press release: …State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka and running mate Joe Birkett, the DuPage County State’s Attorney said Blagojevich owes the people of Illinois a straight answer about the nature of the legal bills and scope of the state and federal investigations his administration is engulfed in. […] I think it’s reasonable to know how much the state has spent to defend the governor and his top staff. This story deserves much more play than it’s getting. The governor’s campaign spent a fortune on legal bills and he won’t say what it was for. It’s time for a little truth. UPDATE 3: AP finally has a story up. Spokeswoman Sheila Nix says the legal work includes compliance with election law, defending the campaign against nuisance lawsuits and reviewing state hiring procedures. All reasonable explanations, except that last part. They can’t have it both ways. You can’t explain what some of the expenses are for, but refuse to say what the rest is for. Also, the reason for the discrepancy in Update 1 could be a simple math error on the part of the campaign. That’s the way it was described and it seems rational.
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Mo’ Money; McKeon; Wine; Target News Feed (use all CAPS in password) (Updated)
Tuesday, Aug 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Aug 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Both Chicago newspapers editorialized today in favor of a mayoral veto of the “big box” ordinance. Sun-Times: In his 17 years on the job, Mayor Daley has never vetoed anything. For most of his tenure, of course, compliant aldermen simply did what he told them to do. But Daley’s power is waning, and the City Council has begun to show an independent streak. Unfortunately, aldermen have used their new-found independence unwisely, passing a living wage law for big-box retailers last week over the mayor’s objections. It received what appears to be a veto-proof majority, but we still think he should veto it. The law is bad public policy and almost certainly violates equal protection grounds because of its discriminatory nature. It applies only to retailers with stores that are larger than 90,000 square feet and that do more than $1 billion in annual sales. Such stores generate $51 million in sales taxes for the city each year. […] Your turn.
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Money
Tuesday, Aug 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller First, the AP gives us the raw numbers. The governor brought in about $6.5 million in the first six months of 2006 and spent nearly $10 million, much of that on television advertisements promoting his re-election bid after easily winning the March Democratic primary, a campaign spokeswoman said Monday. The Sun-Times adds this: Since at least 1986, the gubernatorial candidate with the money edge at the mid-point of the election year won in November. And this: Like Topinka, all the other GOP candidates for statewide office were trailing their Democratic counterparts. But the Trib has this: Since June 30, Topinka has been the beneficiary of high-profile fundraisers headlined by President Bush and two prospective Republican presidential contenders, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Those fundraisers and others are expected to generate an additional $2 million for Topinka.
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The Stroger beat
Tuesday, Aug 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Todd Stroger takes a small hit today. Ald. Todd Stroger, the Democratic nominee for Cook County Board president, and the 8th Ward organization he represents have given almost $8,000 to a group that believes blacks should not be taxed and should not be involved in interracial relationships, and which supports the creation of a separate state for blacks. Blagojevich was barely criticized for putting the popular Munir Muhammad on that commission, and Mayor Daley and plenty of others have given to that group, so we’ll see if Stroger gets equal treatment. Meanwhile, the Tribune reports… In the contest for the Cook County Board presidency, reports showed Todd Stroger had $36,000 in cash at the end of June, only weeks before he was chosen to replace his ailing father, John Stroger, as the Democratic candidate. A spokesman for Todd Stroger said the campaign would not try to access hundreds of thousands of dollars in political funds controlled by his father.
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Morning shorts
Tuesday, Aug 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Instead of our regular “Morning shorts” feature, here’s the news feed for the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s excellent blog roundup of yesterday’s campaign filings. · UPDATE: OK, here’s one short I couldn’ pass up: A close confidante of Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. reveals Jackson will only run for mayor if Mayor Richard Daley does not seek re-election. […]
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