Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Tuesday, Sep 12, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up for discussion purposes.]

The new Tribune poll is out. Blagojevich leads Topinka 45-33, with the Green Party’s Rich Whitney scoring 6 percentage points. 600 likely voters were survyed between Thursday and Sunday. Topinka’s first TV ads of the season went up last Wednesday.

Topinka leads slightly among independents, 36-34, Blagojevich leads among women 45-34. 40 percent of all voters view Topinka unfavorably, compared to 29 percent who view her favorably. Voters were split evenly among the two top contenders and “neither of them” when asked who would do a better job of cleaning up corruption.

A total of 56 percent of the voters surveyed also said they thought Blagojevich had not kept his 2002 campaign promise to end government corruption, while only one in five thought he had lived up to his vow. Democrats were almost equally split on the question while nearly 70 percent of independent voters thought the incumbent had failed to keep his word. […]

Blagojevich also was viewed as the more effective leader to Topinka, 43 percent to 25 percent.

The gap between Blagojevich and Topinka narrowed when voters were asked who would do a better job of handling state finances–39 percent for the Democrat and 36 percent for the Republican. Asked who was more honest and trustworthy, 33 percent said Blagojevich and 27 percent sided with Topinka.

Majorities of voters also rejected both of the major candidates’ proposals to pump more money into schools. Fifty-four percent opposed Topinka’s plan for a land-based Chicago casino and expanded gambling at current casinos to raise revenue, while 62 percent disapproved of Blagojevich’s plan to sell or lease the state lottery to private investors.

With Whitney at 6, the winner only needs 47 percent plus one vote to win.

I’m still putting this together, but you can view other recent statewide polling here.

The Rasmussen poll is still behind the firewall, but here’s an interesting story from the pollster that shows just how difficult it will be for Topinka.

The number of Americans calling themselves Republican has fallen to its lowest level in more than two-and-a-half years. Just 31.9% of American adults now say theyâ€™re affiliated with the GOP. Thatâ€™s down from 37.2% in October 2004 and 34.5% at the beginning of 2006. […]

The number of Democrats has grown slightly, from 36.1% at the beginning of the year to 37.3% now.

Those who claim to be unaffiliated have increased to 30.8% this month. Thatâ€™s the highest total recorded since Rasmussen Reports began releasing this data in January 2004.

Add it all together and the Democrats have their biggest net advantageâ€”more than five percentage pointsâ€”since January 2004. In the first month of 2006, the Democratsâ€™ advantage was just 1.6 percentage points. Last month, 32.8% of adults said they were Republicans and 36.8% identified themselves as Democrats.

The results are from tracking surveys of 15,000 voters per month. The margin of error is said to be “smaller than a percentage point.”

Also, here’s are some crucial excerpts from my syndicated newspaper column, which is about the Post-Dispatch poll:

And considering that the poll found that 20 percent of blacks say they were undecided, there’s a very good chance that Blagojevich is probably at 50 precent right now anyway since almost all of those undecided black voters will end up on Blagojevich’s side (blacks are about 15 percent of the state’s population, so 20 percent undecided would be 3 percent of the total population, and 47 plus three equals 50). This tracks with a July SurveyUSA poll, which found that 25 percent of black voters were either undecided or wanting another unnamed candidate. […]

Almost a third, 29 percent, said they weren’t aware of the yearlong federal investigations into the governor’s office. That will likely change, as Topinka’s TV advertising begins in earnest.

Just 9 percent believed “corruption” was the most important issue in the race â€” one point ahead of “lowering gas prices” and two points ahead of “immigration.” Topinka’s ad campaign will have to change a lot of minds if she hopes to win.

44 Comments

- wndycty - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 6:36 am:
Rod leads in yet another poll. I hope that sooner or later he will hit the 50% mark. While headlines, investigations and Judy’s attacks have hurt Rod as it relates to the cleaning up government issue it seems that this issue has not worked to Judy’s benefit with many of those polled doubting she would do a better job. It seems the more she raises the issue she does hurt Rod but she also reinforces overall distrust of elected officials. Bad strategy Judy, if you are going to use an issue to attack your opponent with, you should make sure it does not harm you as well.

- GetAGrip - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 6:50 am:
What a shame, in November once again the State will have elected what may be the most corrupt administration in the history of the State. I am tired of reading a story of corruption almost daily, but this administration just keeps making up new stories each day to cover up the corruption. If you throw enough *** at the wall it will usually stick and a whole buch has been thrown at this Administration.

IDOT Contracts
Lottery Contracts
Hiring scandals
Ethics violations
Clout list
Vetrans Pref.

and the list goes on…

- anon A - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 7:01 am:
“A total of 56 percent of the voters surveyed also said they thought Blagojevich had not kept his 2002 campaign promise to end government corruption”

I’m sorry - do they read the paper, look at the news. I’m a dem who supported him 4 years ago, but with all of the federal investigations, I think its time to give someone else a try. He is a big disappointment.

- Bill Baar - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 7:13 am:
I’m not certain low Republican identification hurts JBT….

I’m not certain 20% of the African American vote that’s up in the air all goes to B.

- RickG - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 7:20 am:
I pointed this out last nght in the last poll story…

These numbers are bad for JBT, no question. But while the poll WAS conducted right after JBT’s first TV ads came out, as you’ve asserted twice, Rich…it’s also true that the poll was conducted right after the Ryan sentencing (as the AP story I read pointed out).

Point is, I’ll bet dollars to donuts that the Ryan sentencing has more of an impact than Judy’s ads, and believe the two should be mentioned together or not at all.

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 7:24 am:
wndycty -

Blagojevich will not break 50%. He hasn’t been above 47% in a single poll, and he’s got a 52% of voters disapprove of the job he’s doing. Considering he’s been campaigning non-stop for four years and has spent alot of money to get where he is, don’t expect those numbers to move.

As Rich points out, Rod has benefitted greatly from George W. Bush and the GOP handling of Iraq. SurveyUSA says that 45% of Illinoisians identify thmselves as Democrats, only 23% Republican.

Bush’s approval split is 33%/66%, with 62% of Independents and 71% of self-declared moderates disapproving of Bush.

Not surprisingly, Whitney appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the two candidates negative ads. There is a danger for Blagojevich that if he continues to appear to maintain a big lead, many of the 38% of Democrats who disapprove of the job he’s doing will cast a protest vote for Whitney. Nader got only 2% of the vote in 2000, so Whitney is fairing pretty well at this point.

What is clear from this poll is that whomever wins, Blagojevich or Topinka, neither will have a mandate from the voters, especially on the most pressing issue facing the state: education funding reform. This creates an opening for the General Assembly to step up to the plate and define the solution, and I expect a bipartisan group of lawmakers will do just that.

- bored now - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 7:43 am:
nothing like pitching for your master, but this scenario requires blagojevich to see things the same way as you/madigan do. i won how likely that is. it’s equally possible, it seems to me, that if the ilga “steps up to the plate,” we could expect another four years of paralysis…

- Chicken a la Rod - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 7:50 am:
Wow - Whitney at 6% in a Trib poll? No self-respecting debate sponsor can use the “you aren’t polling” excuse to keep him from participating now.

- heet101 - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:05 am:
Turn out the lights…the Republican party is over. 33 percent?? Thanks a bunch Dubya.

- Roomie - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:08 am:
Let the GOP spin game begin… I can almost predict the comments we are going to see from people today.

If you look at the Governors record he has done a great job - especially in the areas that poll well with people (education and health care). He running on his record and that record will lead to victory.

Go Dems Go!!!

- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:25 am:
Dirty money is winning again! Congratulations Illinois, three elections in a row!

- leigh - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:26 am:
Serious question. If Rod is indicted after the election, can he serve as gov. until found guilty?

- Cassandra - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:38 am:
Perhaps the publicity around the Ryan sentencing hasn’t helped. The spectacle of two high level, emblematic Illinois Republicans, Thompson and Ryan, old and compromised, in court on Ryan’s sentencing, doesn’t inspire confidence. And the many who apparently ignored Blagojevich’s corruption problems probably could not avoid noticing Ryan’s.

I don’t think it’s a done deal but it’s not clear that JBT’s campaign team has the ability to mount a truly effective all-out end of campaign push. Hopefully, they will try. But there is certainly a lesson here in picking your (Republican) candidate. Both Peraica and JBT are in races which they could win but likely will not, because neither projects a truly new direction and each carries huge negative baggage including a quirky personality. Quirky personalities rarely play well in politics.

Whatever. Whoever wins the governor’s seat may well wish they hadn’t with all the financial and other problems coming down the pike. And the federal investigations will continue on Blago win or not, not to mention increased efforts by guvernatorial wannabees Dan and Lisa to sideline him before the next election. Should be fun to watch. And Blago likely won’t raise our taxes.

- Bill - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:39 am:
leigh-It is actually a moot question since the governor is an honest man and has done nothing wrong,but the answer is yes and if it makes you feel better to fantasize about indictments, go ahead.

- Walking Wounded - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:47 am:
Bill,
O.k….I’ll look at your point of view and, for a moment, believe the Governor’s an honest man. With all that’s been reported going on under his watch, it just looks like he’s surrounded himself with people who are less than honest. Kind of reminds me of George Ryan’s administration. Anyhow, polls or no polls, time will tell what happens and how far up the food chain the Feds will go.

- the Other Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:48 am:
The big news, as some others have pointed out, is that Rich Whitney is at 6%. It will be hard to keep Whitney out of the debates, giving him legitimacy and free publicity. If the number holds up in November, the Greens will be officially recognized as a major party.

That’s noteworthy.

- Gus Frerotte's Clipboard - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:50 am:
A lot of good points here. Bill Baar may well be right that not all of the black vote will break to Blagojevich, although given his existing lead, a lot of it would have to break to Topinka for her to make up ground, and that seems unlikely. YDD is probably also right that a weakened elected governor, if it works out that way, would be ripe to get steamrollered by the ILGA on what he calls “education funding reform,” but what would really look more like “state revenue reform.” (He and I have debated this elsewhere, but I understand him to be talking about the entire revenue system, not simply education funding.)

Cassandra may make the best point, though. Whoever gets elected is going to be under constant federal scrutiny, whoever the U.S. Attorney is (and it may change mid-term). Patrick Fitzgerald has set a new bar, and given the history in Illinois, it’ll be pretty hard for anybody to back down from it. Any governor in Illinois is going to have to expect to have all of their hiring and contracting practices under a microscope from Day 1 — which is how it should be, but it’s a tough way to run a railroad around here.

You almost feel for the candidates. The winner steps into a political cauldron with a lot of real pressures, an angry media, a jaded electorate, and a powerful Speaker of the House who could be looking to wrap things up neatly in a box before closing the book on a memorable career and turning things over to his daughter. The loser … well, who the heck knows what happens to the loser.

- Reddbyrd - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:52 am:
Clearly Judy Bore must edit the ad to get Brickhead the Executioner walking the dog. Or maybe the Dog Walking the Brick
I am sure no right minded voter would worry about having Brick in the copilot seat.

- bored now - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:53 am:
if whitney wants to debate, then he should debate topinka. if these polls are correct, they both need the exposure…

- DOWNSTATE - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 9:04 am:
These roosters on here need to quit crowing it ain’t daylight yet so the real voters haven’t had a chance to get a good look.With 7 weeks away anything could happen and has in past elections.

- RAI - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 9:27 am:
HEET101
If you were paying attention in the Primary this was what the majority of the GOP voters said “JBT could not win the General election” because most of the GOP would stay home or skip the Gov race,62% voted against her.
The Green party if it stays at 6% will be able to file less petitions and will be a permanent party in Illinois. That is the news in this Trib poll. The Green party will be on the ballot every election taking Dem votes. If the GOP is in such bad shape why is the new party a left leaning party?
JBT is not a Republican, look at the candidates stands, they agree more than disagree. JBT has spent her time reaching out for Dem defectors rather than trying to solidify the GOP base.

Pingback IlliniPundit.com » Blog Archive » Tribune Governor’s Poll: 45-33-6 - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 9:32 am:
[…] Capitol Fax has analysis and discussion here. […]

- NoneOfTheAbove - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 9:36 am:
As more voters learn that Topinka threatened last week to attack the Governor with her rolling pin she calls an assault weapon, her support should go to zero.

Someone that unstable can’t be Governor. Won’t matter how many pooches she takes in.

- leigh - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 9:48 am:
Gus presents a very good point. No matter who is elected it is going to be a very difficult job with lots of scrutiny. A lot of what happens with this is election hinges on a few key things in my mind. How far the birthday check goes and what Stu Levine says or does in court the week before the election. If the gov. is honest and misunderstood, I am sure these and the other stories that seem to be unfolding will all be discredited by then and he will win.

- Martha Mitchell - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 9:50 am:
Blagojevich is a master of launching ships but couldn’t captain one to save his soul (pardon the pun). His apparachiks come up with program after program, big media launches and then no logical plan to fund it. Then they assume that the physicians, teachers, pharmacists, etc., will fall into lock-step. He sucks state agencies dry by robbing their budgets to print hundreds of thousands of pieces of media for his program which are nothing but campaign literature (or else his name and picture wouldn’t be all over everything), not to mention sucking the money out of every fund he can find that is locked behind bars, to feed the General Revenue Fund. He is in a mess of his own making and I hope someone other than he is paying his household bills or that non-union remodeled house in Chicago may be on the market soon.

Bill, Wyndycty, Roomie, et al. - unless you are in the front lines of trying to do a good job for the state of Illinois, you have no idea of what is going on in the halls of state offices and at the Thompson Building’s back rooms. Believe me, it’s not a pretty sight and when future governors have to drastically raise your taxes to pay for all the largesse being handed out by Mr. Blagojevich, you will probably be the first one on this blog, crying bitter tears.

- anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 9:54 am:
Rich Whitney is a joke. 6% is pathetic. I wouldnâ€™t include him in anything. A televised debate is an opportunity for the public to get a candidates viewpoint. Why clutter is up with a wanna-be with no support? I donâ€™t care if he is at 6% or 10%. HE CANT WIN.

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 10:03 am:
bored now - my point is that Blagojevich is so unpopular, it no longer matters what he thinks, assuming he wins re-election.

I doubt Madigan has any particular interest in taking the lead on the education funding reform issue, but plenty of rank-and-file lawmakers do, on both sides of the aisle.

Given Meeks’ political collapse and his inability to move the ball down field, someone else is bound to weigh in. Of course, the ball won’t cross the goal line without Madigan’s implicit okay, but if a measure passes the House with bipartisan support, Jones will be hard-pressed to deny a floor vote.

That will put tremendous political pressure on our next governor.

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 10:04 am:
anonymous 9:54 - by that logic, Topinka shouldn’t be included in the debates.

- Squideshi - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 10:05 am:
The Whitney for Governor campaign just issued this press release. The title is “Rich Whitney’s Support Triples in Governor’s Race While Other Candidates Lose Points.”

According to the press release, on September 11, 2006, Whitney is already at double what Jessie Ventura got in the Minnesota primary on September 15, 1998.

- Sound Reasoning - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 10:41 am:
What a pitiful electorate this state has if the poll numbers are an actual reflection of the citizenâ€™s beliefs.

56% of the people believe that the current governor has not kept his most major campaign promise for which he was elected and that was to end corruption in state government but a lot of them are planning to vote for him again. Maybe Blagojevich is right and he can play the people for a fool and still get their votes.

Only 9% think corruption is an important issue. Wake up people, if the person youâ€™re about to elect is a corrupt liar then how can you believe that person on any other issue that you do deem important? Whatever happened to the days when personal integrity was at the top of a voters list? I guess if youâ€™re not smart enough to consider a personâ€™s integrity to be an important factor then youâ€™re probably likely to go ahead and re-elect someone that you know to be corrupt and not care as long as youâ€™re given a hollow promise of better things to come.

Finally where have these 29% of the people been living for the past 3 years that they arenâ€™t even aware of all the federal investigations into almost every facet of the Blagojevich administration? Maybe there should be an aptitude test before one is allowed in a voting booth. No wonder weâ€™re saddled with a governor like our current one.

- Bill - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 11:03 am:
Martha,
you mean it is NOT business as usual?

- DOWNSTATE - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 11:17 am:
We hound the illegal immigrants but maybe they need to vote and the rest of Illinois atay home.Heck they would probably do a better job of picking a governor

- bored now - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 11:18 am:
ydd, i agree with your assessment of the governor; thanks for the clarification…

- Just A Thought - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 11:37 am:
Maybe Blagojevich getting re-elected would be the best thing that ever happened to the Republican Party in Illinois.

If re-elected then over the next four years Blagojevich’s actions these past 4 years will come back to haunt him. All his social welfare state giveaways will need to be actually funded in order to survive meaning an increase in taxes. If he doesnâ€™t attempt to realistically fund the programs then heâ€™ll be revealed as the fraud that so many know him as. He will be forced to deal with his pension funding debacle. He will ultimately be forced to reduce state services or to increase taxes. That is if he isn’t indicted first and serving time in prison. Either way he will so damage the Democratic Party that it will likely be decades before another Democrat is elected to the governorship again.

Remember Dan Walker.

- Judy, Judy, Judy - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 12:52 pm:
Wow - this sure has fired a lot of you up. My belief if a candidate is on the ballot, it shouldln’t matter if you think than can win or not, they should be included in every debate. Those hosting the debates so be required to invite each candidate on the ballot, no if, and’s or but’s about it.

- bored now - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 12:58 pm:
judy, judy: if only pigs could fly, then i’m sure the world was fair…

- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 2:42 pm:
It’s only one poll people. Get over it!

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 3:15 pm:
bored now - it’s a little different when the entity holding the debate is a taxpayer-funded institution or non-profit entity. Anyway, it appears likely that Rich Whitney will be included in the debate in Southern Illinois. From a Whitney press release:

‘The next debate is scheduled for September 26th and is being co-sponsored by the Southern Illinoisan, Southern Illinois University’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, and WSIU Public Television. Jim Bennett, Editor of the Southern Illinoisan, previously indicated that Rich Whitney would be invited after achieving at least 5% in this poll; and Mike Lawrence, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, has also said, “I don’t think the threshold should be any higher than 5 percent.” ‘

- bored now - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 3:31 pm:
5 percent is the threshold i’d advocate as well. that puts it in blagojevich’s lap; i can’t wait to see what he does!

- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 4:40 pm:
I prefer the Green party to our current choices also I only wish that the party could grow into a contender sooner than later.

- tough guy - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 6:26 pm:
If Judy’s poll number’s continue to drop, will she still be included at the 5% threshold? A couple more rolling pin comments and she’ll be there!

- Buck Flagojevich - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 6:39 pm:
Sound Reasoning -

I agree with you 100%. I was only slightly dismayed when I saw the poll results. It just reinforces that a majority of the people don’t care about who their elected officials are and what their behavior is like. BUT, if something upsets them such as higher gas prices, taxes on booze, cigs, cable TV or utilities they go nuts and scream and whine about the bums in office.

Me, I want Blago to get another term. His house of cards will fall on him and it will be fun to see a sitting governor indicted.

- bored now - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 8:27 pm:
GOVERNOR QUINN!!!!

- EmbarrassedNillinois - Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 9:09 pm:
That this Governor would garner a larger share than almost any opponent should be embarrassing for any half-way literate Illinoisian. I don’t know what it speaks worse for. Illinois Democrats for still backing him or Illinois Republicans for only pulling 33%.

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