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Outlier? 56-26-3 - Updated x2

Sunday, Sep 17, 2006

About one in twenty polls are “wrong.” It’s the nature of the business. That’s why you can’t just consider one poll when looking at a race (it’s also why I set up the statewide polling page, so you could look at all recent polling).

Also, the smaller the sample size, the more likely it is that the poll is wrong. The latest Sun-Times/NBC5 poll of the governor’s race surveyed just 400 people. That’s embarrassingly small. It’s the usual sample size for a quickie state legislative poll (300 is the absolute bare minimum in those races), not a statewide survey.

But I wonder whether the new Sun-Times poll - which shows a gigantic 30-point lead by Gov. Blagojevich - will be put into perspective by the mainstream media, where things are looked at with a more simplistic bent (although Paul Green, to his credit, reportedly said on City Desk this morning that he didn’t believe the results). The resulting headlines are not gonna be good for Topinka and will only strengthen the “inevitability factor” for Gov. Blagojevich.

The CS-T will publish these numbers online soon, but they were released this morning on City Desk and sent to me by an alert reader.

Blagojevich 56%
Topinka 26%
Whitney 3%
Undecided 15%

Who would do a better job eliminating corruption
Blagojevich 44%
Topinka 27%
Whitney 3%

Poll taken September 10-12

Because nothing major has happened in the governor’s favor in the few days since either the Tribune poll or the Rasmussen poll were taken, which both had Blagojevich below 50, this looks a lot like an outlier. Also, compare this result to the last five polls and you can obviously see a difference. Plus, if the governor’s campaign had poll results even close to this, I imagine they’d release them.

Comments will be opened on Monday.

[Hat tip: wndycty}

*** UPDATE *** The Sun-Times story is now up. They make some defenses of the poll in the piece, including the fact that they’ve been using that dinky sample size in polls for eight years. Being close to right about Glenn Poshard in 1998, however, is still no excuse for cheaping out. As I recall, almost nobody believed that poll, either - for the same reason.

Also, the pollster apparently overweighted Democrats in the original sample and went back and weighted the results to achieve a 47-30 Dem-GOP partisan split. The result after the weighting was 51-30, Blagojevich over Topinka.

And here is yesterday’s NBC5 report, which a reader uploaded to YouTube. Those of you who read the NBC5 report online are forgiven for thinking that the sample was city only. It wasn’t.

Comments are now open.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Carol Marin’s column yesterday warns readers not to get too excited about Topinka’s current predicament.

Take 1980 when, according to the polls, Cook County State’s Attorney Bernard Carey was going to clobber challenger Richard M. Daley by 20 points.

Daley won.

Just two years later, Daley was contemplating a run for mayor. His brother, Bill, was told by a Democratic pollster that Daley “had a 25 percent lead over Mayor Jane M. Byrne in a 1982 trial heat” and couldn’t lose. He lost anyway.

And then, of course, there was Gov. Jim Thompson who, in 1982, was going to make mincemeat of former Sen. Adlai Stevenson. Thompson’s 20-point lead in the polls, Neal reminded us, “turned out to be a photo finish.” Thompson squeaked by with only 5,074 votes.

Right now, it’s tempting to say with certainty that Blagojevich won’t just waltz, but rock and roll into a second term. Then again, in the immortal words of his idol, Elvis Presley, “Wise men say only fools rush in.”

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Tight - Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 10:56 am:

    Right on, Rich. 400 is a JOKE. You’d think these two media giants wouldn’t settle for a poll on the cheap. A wee bit irresponsible.

  2. - B Hicks - Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 11:18 am:

    Not a good weekend for the SS Topinka. The distress call has gone out and the Captain is panicking.

    Prepare to abandon ship!

  3. - annon. - Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 11:24 am:

    None of these polls add up to anything ….really ! Who did they poll ??, what was asked ??, is it “likely” voters ?, real voters ?? ……seems to be skewering the real thing & that is the message. Bladgo has real troubles & folks don’t know it or ignore it & JBT can’t get her act together with a clear message to counter attack !!

  4. - HoosierDaddy - Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 11:29 am:


    If by “wrong” you mean outside their own margin for error, you are exactly right. Most polls are done with a margin for error of +/- 3 to 5 percent with a level of confidence of 95 percent. That means that even if the poll was properly conducted there is only a 95 percent chance that the “true” numbers lie anywhere inside the margin of error. There is, therefore, a 1 in 20 chance of completely blowing it.

    I haven’t seen the crosstabs on this one yet, but it looks like either an extreme outlier or a horrendous problem with the sampling.

    I’d say it’s more likely that the real numbers are somewhere between 35 and 40 for Judy and 45 and 50 for Rod; i.e. Rod’s up somewhere between 5 and 15 percent– and I really don’t think you can get any more accurate than that.

    –J (M.P.A., J.D.)

  5. - Roomie - Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 2:35 pm:

    Rod wins police endorsement
    Rod wins teachers endorsement
    Rod up double digits in all polls

    Topinka loses AFSCME endorsement
    Topinka loses IEA endorsement
    Topinka down double digits in all polls

    Bad, bad, bad week for ol JBT…

    Go ahead and try to spin this Blago bashers. Face it, this one is all but over.

  6. - Gregor - Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 5:20 pm:

    I would not be shocked to find out this particular poll was faked and paid for by a Blago operative, to do just such a psy-op on the voters and contributors.

  7. - Truth - Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 8:22 pm:

    400 sample for statewide? That’s irresponsible journalism. Rod’s not even up 56-26 among his family.

  8. - Squideshi - Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 8:50 pm:

    The results of this poll are very likely inaccurate, not only because the sample size is far too small, but also because the sample includes only 400 “city voters” and most of Rich Whitney’s supporters are in Southern Illinois, outside the city. Please also consider that the Chicago Tribune poll conducted at the same time, put Rich Whitney at 6 percent!

  9. - Mike - Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 10:59 pm:

    As much as I wish the poll were accurate, it looks like the poll was NOT an outlier, but WAS a sample of 400 City of Chicago voters. Which explains the result.

  10. - Mike - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 5:22 am:

    Honest, last night’s on-line versions of this story both for the CST and Channel 5, said the Governort sample was of City voters (400) only.

  11. - Roomie - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 6:36 am:

    This was a statwide poll. You only have to read the article to realize that… They quote a person from Newton, IL which is waaay down in the southeast part of the state.

    Whatever you believe the true results are, the Governor is now over 50% and JBT is dropping. You can deny that.

    This wont make is any easier for Topinka to raise money. She is in trouble.

  12. - anon - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:09 am:

    Sure I can deny Blago is above 50 it’s a poll the only poll that counts is the one on Nov. 7th.

  13. - Bill - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:12 am:

    It is not over until the last person votes. Rod is gaining momentum and we need to keep working, talk to as many voters as possible, tout Rod’s stellar record in health care (endorsed by Illinois Nurses Association), eduaction(endorsed by the Illinois Federation of teahcers), and public safety (endorsed by Fraternal Order of police). We can’t get overconfident. We have to get our people out to vote on 11/7.

  14. - EmbarrassedNillinois - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:47 am:

    Wrong or not, the Trib article indicates that Blago won’t have a long second term. Rob meet George, George meet Rod.

  15. - Bill - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:58 am:

    The Trib uses front page anti-Rod headlines two Sundays in a row, the FOP and IFT endorsements completely ignored but big misleading headlines in the metro section ” ‘Teachers’ sit our gov race.” Anyone care to guess which candidate they like? It is a good thing they have no credibility left with readers. I wonder if Judy is going to declare their in kind contributions.

  16. - Bill Baar - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:58 am:

    I think it’s going to boil done to will enough Republicans agree with Kass here,

    Voters don’t believe she’d be any different than Blagojevich. This is a serious problem for the calcified Republican hierarchy. But whether it is a problem for grass-roots Republicans is another matter.

    I don’t think it is a problem for any Republican except the elite.

    Because if Topinka is elected, I see a tax increase, and more casinos, and after one term she’ll be rejected.

    Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) might even retire, once he has installed his daughter, Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan, as Democratic governor of Illinois, to thrive on the Topinka tax revenues, and rule the state liberally for the rest of our natural lives.

    And the Republican Party–not the grass roots but the bosses like Big Bob and Big Jim–will have maintained their hold.

    Or, perhaps Blagojevich can survive–temporarily–and win re-election, becoming the first Democratic pinata to save the Republican Party from itself.

  17. - Bill Baar - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:59 am:

    down…not done… so much for spell checker..but you get the drift

  18. - Juice - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:59 am:

    Bill is right. Its time to focus all of our energy on getting Rod’s voters to the polls. This race is definately winnable now and we have to spring through the finish line. Get the ground game going. I was at the Russian picnic at Old Orchard yesterday, and at the Taste of Romania near Addison and the Kennedy. Rod is a rock star in these ethnic communities. Every ethnic group relates to rod’s upbringing — they will vote for him because he is one of them.

    I saw Joe Birkett at the Romanian festival. It was really quite sad. He walked around, nobody knowing who he was, and his lackluster remarks were followed by light, polite applause.

    Rod wins big in the African American Community. He wins big with Latinos. He wins big with Labor. He wins big with the white ethnic voters in Chicago. Factor in the increasing number of dems in the cook suburbs and the collars (particularly DuPage), and this election is over. Rod won Cook by 450,000 votes four years ago. Jim Ryan won DuPage by about 90,000. His margin of victory will increase in Cook, and the margin of vitrory for Judy in DuPage and the collars will be diminished. Even if (as the Rod haters love to point out) Rod does poorly south of I-80, there are simply not enough votes downstate for her to make up the ground necessary to make this a race.

    Time to execute the field plan. Find the plusses and get them to the polls. We will get Governor Blagojevich re-elected.

  19. - Skarfeld - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:04 am:

    Good point, Bill. We’ll allow the former Thompson, Edgar and Ryan staffers to keep wishing their way back into office; in the meantime, lets continue to knock on doors, call and persuade voters and do the day to day things that actually win campaigns.

    Talk about dogs chasing their tails! Here, Fido, here, Fido! Arrf Arrf Arrf (thanks to Frank Zappa).

  20. - anonymous - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:23 am:

    I want to jump on the bandwagon telling all dems to get out to vote! Blago extends his lead everyday, but don’t get complacent. The govs field operation is top notch and will bring it home. Ive seen Blago people out walking precincts (well, at least downstate) the past four weekends and even joined them twice. From people I talk to this is going on all over the state. No doubt his operation is running on all cylinders.

    We have to get this man re-elected. Say what you want about him, but his record speaks for itself. Judy would be an embarrassment to Illinois. I love the person in the Suntimes article today who had this to say about Judy: “Topinka, I think she’s just not very bright. … She’s not articulate. She uses a lot of pat phrases; she doesn’t answer the questions. I’ve been in forums where she was answering questions, and I have not been impressed.” Yup, that pretty much sums up a lot of what I hear from people in my area.

  21. - Juice - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:35 am:

    by the way, what happened to the AFSCME ensorsement? They hate the gov, yet didnt endorse judy? She was really hoping for their endorsement and money (IEA as well) to stay up on TV. A VERY BAD weenekd for JBT.

  22. - Wumpus - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:38 am:

    Well, the poll indicated that an overwhelming number of 18-39 year olds favor Rod’s plans. How fitting since we are the ones that will be paying for it…dearly. Those of us who stay in IL.

  23. - Bill Baar - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:52 am:

    Rod wins big in the African American Community. He wins big with Latinos. He wins big with Labor. He wins big with the white ethnic voters in Chicago.

    Rod wins big, but do these voters? That’s kind of the story of Illinois.

  24. - Scoop - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:02 am:

    You know…at some point we need to start looking at the voters in Illinois as part of this problem when dealing with corruption. The press writes about the problems with Illinois politics, but the voters turn a blind eye and support Daley, Blago, GRyan, etc.

    Shouldn’t some of the blame for the nature of politics in this state fall upon those who do the voting?

  25. - NW - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:04 am:

    Let’s see if even one other poll confirms anything close to these numbers. Until it does, I think you have to dismiss this one as aberrant or simply flawed in methodology.

  26. - stats please - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:16 am:

    Not to nitpick, but Hoosier Daddy (MPA & JD notwithstanding) and Rich are both incorrect: “Also, the smaller the sample size, the more likely it is that the poll is wrong.” … “if by wrong you mean outside the margin of error”. Polls with N=300 and N=3000 are equally likely to have reality be outside the margin of error — 5 times out of 100, or 1 in 20 time. The difference is captured by the SIZE of the margin of error. But no matter the size, in standard parlance any poll is 5% likely to be “wrong”.

  27. - Bill - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:33 am:

    It is the voters who who elect their leaders and the fact that they are rarely influenced by slanted articles in the press is to their credit. They are the ones who choose the candidate they feel will best represent their interests. Despite the press’ attempt to influence voters, they seem to have a knack of cutting through the bs and picking the best candidate. Your attitude and the attitude of others (Zorn,Steinberg,Marin,et al) that they know so much more and are so much smarter than the average voter is one of the reasons mainstream media is declining and people are turning to other sources for information.

  28. - Skarfeld - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:33 am:

    Look, Scoop, people vote the way they do for many reasons: how they were raised, practical experiences, employment opportunities, philosophical reasons.

    That is as it should be. It sounds like what you want to do is educate them until they come around to your way of thinking which, by the way, did work for Pol Pot in the beginning. Let people vote based on the info they recieve and the many other developmental factors that shaped their lives.

    You might not like the outcome, but at least it’s not voting by gunpoint. It sounds like you don’t like the fact that JBT isn’t, hasn’t been, and won’t be the best candidate the GOP could have run. You’re stuck with her; she has no money, no base, no real field organization to speak of (all of which is her and her campaign’s ultimate responsibility) So stop blaming the “stupid” electorate, as you imply.

  29. - Conservative Republican - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:41 am:

    You can’t beat somebody with nobody. Despite the poll bashing sparked by bad news for Judy, I think the comments of average voters culled by the Sun Times pretty much say it all.

    Downstate nurse Simmonds (a Democrat):

    “I can’t believe she didn’t have an idea of what was going on as treasurer [under Geo. Ryan]”

    Downstate trucker Shelly:

    “He’s [Blago] been here a few times and talking to people about things….[Judy’s]never been here, and we never read nothing about her in our local papers…”

    Chicago teacher Pritikin:

    “I don’t like either one of them….Topinka, I think she’s just not very bright. … She’s not articulate. She uses a lot of pat phrases; she doesn’t answer the questions. I’ve been in forums where she was answering questions, and I have not been impressed.” [Pritikin “hates” both candidates and doesn’t know how she’ll vote.]

    The last comment contrasts greatly with sychopant Steve Schnorf’s protest about how “likeable” Judy is.

    These random voter comments illustrate Judy’s profound weaknesses in solidifying broad-based support against the marginally-popular Rod. With only seven weeks left in the campaign and with Topinka short of money and unable to break through the media clutter with a clear, appealing campaign message, it is difficult to see how Judy will alter these perceptions built over many years. Worse yet, the Governor will have the clear advantage of the Democrats’ ground game in the final weeks. As a pro-Blago poster said earlier here, they will be identifying their “pluses” and mobilizing their vote-production machine. Topinka has nothing comparable ready for election day.

    It probably won’t be 30 points, but all indications are showing a Blago reelection despite his unpopularity. Will the Topinka camp have the nimbleness and the resources to affect the trend? Their post-Labor Day performances have not been encouraging.

  30. - RealClear - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 10:31 am:

    What a disaster for the Illinois GOP. Topinka’s pulling every Republican candidate down at all levels.

    Jim Edgar especially has egg all over his face for getting behind an embarrassment like Topinka. If she hadn’t lied about her plan to expand gambling in the primary, she never would have won in the first place, and voters might have a serious choice now.

    Jim Edgar, what were you thinking?

  31. - Scoop - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 10:53 am:

    You all missed my point completely, and clearly I didn’t say who I was supporting Skarfield, so let’s not making things up, sound good? But you’re making my point for a “stupid electorate.”

    What I said was people need to stop complaning about corruption in this state if they’re going to hold their nose and vote for someone who is under investigation. But you and Bill can go ahead and vote for Rod…I’ll be anxious to see you defend him when he’s indicted (Oh wait, sorry Bill, I forgot it’s just the press out to get him).

    I for one, will be voting Green.

  32. - VanillaMan - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 11:12 am:

    I know Paul Green and Paul Green is right. This poll is wrong. Stop the spinning.

  33. - Todd - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 11:26 am:

    Wow, you know Paul Green? That is awesome! (sarcasm)

  34. - Six Degrees of Separation - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 12:59 pm:

    Bill 9:33-

    If the public were turning to CapitolFax instead of the MSM for their information, the Gov. might not only lose the election, he might be publicly hanged or stoned:-)

  35. - Silas - the assassin opus dei monk - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 1:07 pm:

    Its interesting to see the different responses. When other polls were conducted that showed JBT close, it meant doomsday for Rod. Now that the gap has widened, according to this poll, all the anti-rod people are up in arms.

    There should be a follow up survey with a larger sample size to see whether the results vary from the original study.

    The republicans are definitely on a sinking ship and their choice of JBT as their candidate will be their undoing.

  36. - HoosierDaddy - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 2:39 pm:

    Stats– Check the posts. I didn’t say anything about sample size relating to level of confidence. Level of confidence and margin of error are two separate things…. I had that class, too! ;-)

    But a smaller sample size does generally mean that the margin for error is larger.

  37. - Shelbyville - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 2:42 pm:

    Note to Topinka campaign: Make some bumper stickers of that $1500 check.

  38. - Little Egypt - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 2:56 pm:

    Roomie, let me correct a couple of things. NO endorsement from ASFSCME for either your boy Elvis or Topinka. NO endorsement from IEA for either your boy Elvis or Topinka. Both your boy Elvis AND Topinka lose - not just JBT. Newton is hardly considered southern Illinois. It is north of I-64, pretty much the demarcation line for any professed resident of southern Illinois.

    Bill, IFT endorsements were ignored because it was the union reps that made it. The teachers they represent are pretty pi$$ed about the endorsement. Rod’s gaining momentum alright. So are the Feds.

    Bill, Roomie, B.Hicks, Juice, and the rest of Elvis’ campaign staff - I’m not sure where you live but it certainly is a happy place.

  39. - Centrist - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 3:58 pm:

    I don’t know what all the Blagojevich fuss is about. The choice for Gov is really between JBT and Pat Quinn. One of those two finishes out the next term. It certainly won’t be Rod.

  40. - B Hicks - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 4:04 pm:

    Are we a little frustrated, Little E.?

    Relax, it’s almost over.

    Got to go, it’s phone night.

  41. - The Realist - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 4:20 pm:

    The poll looks like a far outlier. Nevertheless, time is running out for Judy. I’m a centrist Dem. who supports her, but Blago’s gonna win.

  42. - Bill - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 4:34 pm:

    Little E,
    On phone night, I sometimes get a teacher. They all are grateful for the increase in state funding and for raising the EAV level more than any gov in history. They also really like universal pre-school and the strenghening of the HS graduation requirements. They especially like the reform of ISBE. Now they can get their ceritficates renewed efficiently without 20 phone calls and letters and waiting 6 months. They don’t say much about their “union reps” but they are proud of their Union and its endorsement. They must have missed Steinberg’s column.
    Gotta go! Its canvas night and its a beautiful night for politics.

  43. - Little Egypt - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 5:22 pm:

    Bill & B Hicks, if it’s not business as usual, then why are you manning phones on such a beautiful night? I’m not frustrated at all because I know that Centrist is positively correct. Our next governor will be JBT or Quinn. I will enjoy either of them.

  44. - huh? - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 5:23 pm:

    What I don’t understand is how anybody who reads the newspapers and listens to the news still doesn’t see what APPEARS to be rampant corruption in the current administration. There has been story after story outlining campaign donations for fat contracts and jobs, jobs given to unqualified people, etc. The current governor ran on a platform of reform - not going business as usual.

    The programs that have been trotted out such as Allkids are hollow programs that were crammed through the legislature without real debate.

    How many bills have been rushed through with lots of hype and have been overturned by the courts?

    There has been incident after incident where people have been told one thing and the governor does the complete opposite - stem cell money is one that I can think of. The legislature asked if there was stem cell money in the current budget and were told no money for stem cell research. Did the governor lie to the legislature when he found money for stem cell research in the budget?

    I don’t care how many programs have been passed that help so many people.

    My biggest concern is can I believe what I am told by the governor. I don’t believe that I can.

  45. - Roomie - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 5:48 pm:

    Lil e
    Big difference… Blago wasnt expecting nor NEEDING the IEA or AFSCME endorsement. AFSCME may not like the fact that the governor reduced the state work force by 15,000 employees, but I think the general public does. Who cares about AFSCME. They know Topinka is going to lose and dont want to be stuck TOTALLY on the wrong side of the fence.

    In regard to IEA, the governor got the Illinois Federation of Teachers which is huge compared to Topinka not being endorsed by either organization.

    No endorsement also means no money for Topinka. Something she desperately needs as opposed to Blago.

  46. - Arthur Andersen - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:21 pm:

    Perhaps the IEA bailed on Blago because they know a little bit more than the IFT about what criminal schemes Blago & Co. allowed Stu Levine & Co. to try and pull off at their pension fund.

    Just keep chugging the Kool-Aid, Bill.

  47. - (618) Democrat - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:25 pm:

    The new buzz word for Republicans and Rod bashers is (outlier). You are going to hear that word alot in blogs like this for the next 51 days. Blagojevich 56% Marlboro woman 44% on November 7.
    I bet this is a four pack day for Topinka after she reads this poll.

  48. - Little Egypt - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:30 pm:

    Roomie, there’s a BIG difference in a union endorsement and how that translates into union votes. IEA (which declined to endorse either candidate) is the second largest political contributor, Illinois State Medical Society being the top dog. Union endorsement these days carries very little weight compared to decades ago. Go ahead and vote for Quinn if you want. I really don’t mind him being Governor. If the indictments don’t come before the election, they will dog GoverNOT Hairdo, and it won’t be very long before he is operating under the giant cloud of multiple indictments. At least give yourself credibility for being intelligent enough to count the broken promises, campaign contributions for jobs and contracts, stomping on veteran preference, the fact that at least one of Elvis’ guys wore a wire, a revised ethics form listing a $1,500 “birthday present”, etc. etc. etc. If you want to be for your boy Elvis, that’s fine with me. But don’t pi$$ down my back and try to tell me it’s raining. Don’t tell me your guy is honest and above board when he’s nothing but a lousy politician and an outstanding liar.

  49. - Ronnie Dobbs - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:39 pm:

    If Rod is a lousy politician what does that make the R’s trying to take him down?

    This board is getting really sad, there are only so many times you can say “Elvis”, “GoverNot Hairdo”…etc. etc. and still be taken seriously.

    As for why people like Bill and B Hicks are working the phones tonight, most people do this type of thing for the Governor because they agree with his focus on helping working families. Even better, nobody wants to see where Topinka will lead us. Personally I prefer to knock on doors rather then phone, then you can get the literature out and let people know how the Governor is helping the average citizen…It’s also nice to get away from the disgrunted state employees and out of work R’s that frequent here and talk to actual people. You can join me tomorrow night if you like!

  50. - Arthur Andersen - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:52 pm:

    Alternatively, Hicks is angling for a better State job and Bill, God only knows.

    One would be ill-advised to walk a precinct for Blago in my little corner of the world unless they had a taste for getting doors slammed in their face. We average citizens don’t like liars.

    “Outlier” will not be the word of the day anytime soon, 618. It will be “RICO.” Look it up sometime.

    The only 56 Rod will get is 56 counts or 56 years.

  51. - Ronnie Dobbs - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:15 pm:

    most people are not as rude as you would like to thank…people can disagree with you in a more mature way then name calling and door slamming and I can respect that. People have let me know they are supporting Topinka but they aren’t like the “outliers” on here. Fortunately for me there have been more Yay’s then nay’s in my neck of the woods (which is not exactly the liberal wonderland I would like it to be). Cheers!

  52. - Ronnie Dobbs - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:16 pm:

    sorry I meant “think” in the first sentence there…I must have been busy combing my hair. Cheers!

  53. - Arthur Andersen - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:36 pm:

    “Dobbs.” even your handle is an unfunny joke. Scram.

  54. - Little Egypt - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 10:32 pm:

    Ronnie, you have little credibility when you say most people do this type of thing (working the phones) for the Governor because they agree with his focus on helping working families. They are doing it to save their jobs, they think the favor will be returned in the form of a promotion, or they have something else they want from the politician. This is exactly what the Repubs have done when they have been “asked” to work the phones. I’ve been around too long to know that is the way campaigns and election time works. I also know that the “walk sheet” you have been given with phone numbers in most cases is of dem precinct/ward voters. The powers that be who run phone polls like it when you pollers tell them you’ve had a good night with lots of positive responses. I know this for a fact because I’ve worked phones before. I would hope that Elvis is making sure that no state phones are being used, but I simply cannot give him credit for being that smart. I will stop calling him Elvis when he stops inpersonating Elvis. I will stop calling him GoverNOT Hairdo when he begins caring more about the people of this state than his own personal interests. I think by now we can all agree that he can kiss the White House goodby.

  55. - B Hicks - Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 10:54 pm:

    Hey Art, I couldn’t get a better state job.

    You Suck!

  56. - (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 4:48 am:

    The Republicans are getting a little testy. After they read the latest polls in todays Sun Times they will be even more so today. Have a good day. I will.

  57. - Bill - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 4:50 am:


  58. - NoMilkForMe - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 7:15 am:

    JBT has neither the bandwidth nor the CPU to be governor. Voters recognize this. The national Republican party recognizes this.

  59. - Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 7:40 am:

    Hicks, quite articulate you are. How much did pay for that job?

  60. - stats please - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 9:11 am:

    Hoosier, Rich conflated the MOE with the level of confidence (”one in twenty are wrong”), and you said he was “exactly right”. From your response to me, it looks like you were trying to correct him in a more polite way than I did. Small sample size polls are no more likely to be outside the MOE than large polls. But the sample size is accounted for in the MOE. Do I think the S-T poll is an outlier? Probably, because the larger MOE doesn’t even begin to account for the difference between the other medium sample-size polls. But I prattle on, and almost no one here in the comments cares anyway, they know better than the polls!

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

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