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Right now, anyway, the trend is not her friend

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I love trend charts. Topinka probably won’t love this one, though.

The top graphic depicts poll results (dots) and the polling trends (lines) since mid-April. Blagojevich is in blue, Topinka is in red. The graph and the results below it are from Pollster.com. a great new site that has now added an Illinois page.

This is overly simplistic, of course. The race will obviously tighten up when Topinka finally starts running negative TV ads (although her campaign is currently “dark” downstate and hasn’t bought any ads for this weekend in Chicago), and the guv is still far enough below 50 to be troublesome to an incumbent. No matter what any poll says today, the election is not tomorrow.

But, as the title of this post says, the trend ain’t her friend.

[I closed comments on this pretty quickly because it was posted so late in the day. But like all the posts, you can comment all weekend and they will magically appear on Monday morning.]

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Shameless plug

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I’ll be a panelist at the 9:00 event. Mark your calendars. Click on the image for more info.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY, Part 2 - One big surprise in new endorsement (Use all caps in password) *** Updated x1 - Complete IL poll results ***

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Friday horror show *** Updated x1 ***

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The ICC voted to accept the results of the reverse auction, but won’t issue the results until late on a Friday afternoon. What does that tell you?

After enjoying a decade-long electricity rate freeze, residential customers of Commonwealth Edison should brace for a significant increase, an estimated 25 percent, in their monthly bills, according to the results of an energy auction to be disclosed on Friday.

The winning bid to supply power to Illinois is in line with current wholesale prices, according to a source with knowledge of the auction, and that will translate into substantially higher bills.

“This is outrageous,” said David Kolata, executive director of the Citizens Utility Board, who said the increase could exceed 25 percent. “It is a very large rate increase at a time when ComEd’s parent Exelon has record profits and is cutting rates in Pennsylvania.”

The Illinois Commerce Commission voted unanimously Thursday to accept the results of the auction to supply residential customers, while rejecting the results of an auction to supply larger commercial customers, apparently because of an insufficient number of bids.

There was word yesterday that the hike could be a lot more than 25 percent. Either way, I’m wondering if there will be some political fallout here.

Like it said in the article, ComEd’s rates have been frozen for a decade. But the company seems to have made a nice profit regardless. I don’t know exactly who is right and who is wrong, but I’ve learned over the years to rarely, if ever, trust the Illinois Commerce Commission to make the right choices.

And by delaying its announcement until a Friday afternoon, the ICC has once again shown itself to be a bunch of political hacks unworthy of trust.

[Hat tip: CUB blog]

*** UPDATE *** CBS2 has more.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Gordon; Granberg; Champaign; Flider; RTA; FTN; Target feed (Use all caps in password)

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day *** Updated x1 ***

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The ArchPundit posted some sharp comments about the Topinka campaign this week.

The main point he was making is that Topinka lacks any sort of compelling theme or narrative to her campaign.

In Illinois, Rod is the master of the narrative. It’s perfect for him because he has no attention span so summing it up in two sentences works great. […]

What is Judy’s theme? Rod’s corrupt.

To Illinois voters a candidate calling another candidate corrupt is about as effective as pointing out they are a politician. Duh. […]

What makes Judy attractive to political watchers is she admits she doesn’t know everything and she speaks honestly and off the cuff. And it is exactly that which has doomed her candidacy.

Today’s question: Do you agree with this? Try not to get all hackery in comments. Address the question, please.

*** UPDATE *** The ArchPundit expands and clarifies his remarks in comments.

Let me say quickly as I’m headed out of town for the weekend–I generally like Judy as a person and I think she’s funny and genuine, but that’s a criticism in that it works on political junkies like those who read this site, but it’s horribly undisciplined for a campaign like this. Mixing the two like McCain or someone can work. Judy is all over the place in her messaging.

Rod, for all of his faults, is very good at staying on messaging. I can sum up his theme in two sentences. I can’t do that with Judy.

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Governor finally speaks *** Updated x1 ***

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up for discussion purposes.]

I heard that the Tribune was thinking of sending a reporter out to Rockford for the governor’s fly-around. Looks like they did.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich said “there’s really nothing to any of this” when asked Thursday about his acceptance of a $1,500 check for his daughter from former campaign treasurer Michael Ascaridis within two weeks after Ascaridis’ wife got a state job.

This was the first time that the governor has commented himself about the $1500 check from Michael Ascaridis to his daughter and the somewhat questionable circumstances surrounding the state hiring of Beverly Ascaridis.

“Every single rule and law, disclosure law, has been complied with,” Blagojevich said. […]

Asked if he had anything to do with the special treatment Beverly Ascaridis received, Blagojevich said, “No.” […]

Asked if he was concerned about Beverly Ascaridis’ job or whether she should still be on the state payroll, Blagojevich responded, “Whatever the process is, that will unfold.”

Some Blagojevich insiders contend that Mrs. Ascaridis was angry about not getting a promotion, which is how they explain her trip to the FBI with the $1500 check.

Meanwhile, the Daily Herald has a story that quotes Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn claiming that Blagojevich “does the right thing all the time,” but once again the paper’s web site is down.

OK, the site is up now.

â€œHeâ€™s always been a person whoâ€™s honest and one of integrity,â€ said Quinn, appearing at a Capitol news conference. â€œI have confidence the governor does the right thing all the time.â€ [,,,]

â€œI think itâ€™s perfectly understandable,â€ Quinn said. â€œI think it is a lot of money, but if youâ€™ve had someone youâ€™ve known all your life … that can happen.â€

Asked if his children had ever received comparable gifts, Quinn couldnâ€™t cite specifics but said he wouldnâ€™t be surprised if they had.

â€œYeah, Iâ€™m sure that has happened,â€ he said. Quinn has two sons.

*** UPDATE *** I missed this one. The Post-Dispatch editorial board weighs in.

There’s an unwritten rule in political scandals that says the more complicated a deal is, the less likely it is to get public attention. It’s when things get simple that the problems start. […]

The governor’s office says it’s an “outrage” that anyone would question the propriety of the check to his daughter. Hint to governor: Get used to it; most Illinoisans don’t write $1,500 checks to 7-year-olds. […]

The yearlong investigation has touched on numerous state agencies and departments, including the state teachers pension board and Joe Cini, who ran the governor’s hiring office. It has even implicated the Blagojevich family baby-sitter, Betty Bukraba, who was appointed to the Civil Service Commission.

But it’s that $1,500 birthday gift to a little girl that’s raising eyebrows.

A Barbie doll we could understand.

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Lots more of that “reform and renewal” stuff

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

They’re really taking this “get his name out there” schtick way too far.

As Scott Frillman flipped through the stack of stuff his third-grade son brought home from the start of the school year, one item in particular caught his attention.

“Governor Blagojevich’s All Kids Program,” appeared on one side of a bookmark Frillman pulled from his boy’s book bag. The flip side featured “Rod R. Blagojevich, Governor, state of Illinois.”

He was not happy.

“It’s campaign information. My kids carry his information home in their backpacks. I just disagree with that totally,” said Frillman, whose sons attend school in Antioch Elementary District 34. “I resent my kids being the foot soldiers.” […]

A state spokeswoman said every school district in Illinois was offered materials. Ultimately, items like the bookmark were distributed at more than 1,600 schools, 600 libraries and 140 hospitals at a cost of $90,000 to taxpayers. The promotion is part of a nearly $3 million, three-year All Kids marketing contract the state awarded to GMMB, the issues advertising and campaign arm of public relations industry giant Fleishman-Hillard.

And Eric Krol takes a whack at the guv in his column today. After telling readers that Blagojevich has long proclaimed himself to be a “friend of the working class,” Krol writes…

His actions in office donâ€™t seem to be exactly endearing him to his target audience lately.

In the past couple weeks, working-class voters have found out Blagojevich took a $1,500 check written to his daughter as a birthday gift just a couple weeks after he gave the check-writerâ€™s wife a $46,800-a-year state job.

And theyâ€™ve found out Blagojevich appointed his daughtersâ€™ baby-sitter to a $21,000-a-year job on a state panel.

Those are the kinds of moves that drive working-class folks â€” not to mention those in the non-working class â€” absolutely up the wall. Their children arenâ€™t getting $1,500 birthday gifts. And they sure as heck canâ€™t give their child-care provider such big-bonus perks.

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It’s official

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The Illinois Family Institute officially throws in the towel by announcing that it won’t appeal that scorching appellate court ruling which denied the group ballot access for its advisory referendum.

The push for an anti-gay marriage advisory referendum on the statewide ballot this November is officially over.

Proponents of the Protect Marriage Illinois initiative say they have given up and won’t challenge a federal appeals court ruling last week that effectively scuttled their movement. The court’s decision upheld a dismissal of a lawsuit this summer that alleged Illinois’ election laws were overly burdensome and unfairly nixed a ballot question asking voters whether Illinois needs a constitutional amendment to permanently bar same-sex couples from tying the knot.

“This is the end of the road for now,” said Peter LaBarbera, spokesman for the Illinois Family Institute, a conservative group behind the Protect Marriage initiative. “We’re sad it’s not going to be on there, but we’ve decided not to challenge the court’s decision anymore.” […]

The issue is not likely to go away forever, even in Illinois’ political scene, which is trending leftward. LaBarbera said the initiative “mobilized an incredible number of people” and that another push in 2008 is likely. Garcia promised to “go toe-to-toe with them and fight all the way.”

Despite their loss, they do have a very large mailing list now.

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6th District roundup

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Strange days on the campaign trail.

The 6th Congressional District race took a pair of strange turns Thursday with flaps over an erroneous endorsement and a campaign contribution from controversial talk-show host Rosie Oâ€™Donnell.

The endorsement flap came as Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam of Wheaton watched a police union endorsement he prematurely claimed was his in campaign literature instead go to Democratic opponent Tammy Duckworth.

The Fraternal Order of Police, which represents 34,500 officers in Illinois, announced on Thursday itâ€™s backing Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran from Hoffman Estates.

So Roskam campaign fliers being distributed touting him as getting the police union endorsement are wrong. Roskam campaign manager Ryan McLaughlin said the police union endorsed Roskam in the primary and the mail piece touting it was old. But the piece certainly appears new â€” it also lists Roskamâ€™s endorsement by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which also was announced Thursday.

Oops.

From the Pioneer Press, Tammy Duckworth’s spokesperson accuses Peter Roskam of “hiding behind the national party.”

The tone of rhetoric between Democrat Tammy Duckworth and Republican Peter Roskam, candidates in the 6th Congressional District, escalated last week when a mailer accused Roskam of “lying” landed on voters’ doorsteps.

The ad was in response to a series of more than 10 mailers sent by the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) that Duckworth says mischaracterize her views on taxes and immigration, said Christine Gluntz, a Duckworth campaign spokeswoman. Above a picture of Duckworth in her dress military uniform, the piece reads, “Peter Roskam is lying about Tammy Duckworth again.”

The Roskam campaign responded last week, saying Duckworth was “unhinged.’

By federal law, the Roskam campaign is not allowed to coordinate its local campaign with the national party, meaning the Roskam did not sign off on the ads before they were sent out. Ryan McLaughlin, a Roskam campaign spokesman, said Duckworth showed poor form when she fired the first verbal salvo.

And Hiram writes about the lack of substance from Roskam’s campaign. Also check out “Duckworth also counting on party big shots” from the Suburban Life chain.

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Morning shorts

Friday, Sep 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Are the Obama’s cashing in? An admittedly biased source asks some tough questions.

* Rockford Register-Star’s editorial board grows weary of the debate over debates.

* Huntley: Lots to answer before schools get more money

* “An animal-protection group has criticized Illinois public health officials for being slow to implement a law approved last year that was intended to prevent dog attacks and reduce the number of stray animals.”

* Big box down — foie gras ban next?… Foie gras ban may be next

* Editorial: Mayor didn’t play race card in Council’s big-box dispute

* Hynes to Obama: Run for president

* Dems ‘confused,’ Obama writes in latest book

* State chamber chief laments apathy of voters in Illinois

* For all those predicting a national Dem sweep, there’s this to think about:

ut most Republican incumbents hold a cash advantage over challengers, and money for ads and direct mail in the final days of a campaign is a serious advantage. This week, for example, on the same day the Democratic National Committee announced it was committing $12 million to support congressional races, the chairman of the Republican National Committee sent out word he would spend five times that amount to defend GOP candidates — a record breaking $60 million in the next seven weeks.

The second pillar of Republican defense is turnout. Over the last two election cycles Republicans have proved to have a superior turnout effort to Democrats, using an intensive voter contact operation in the final days of the campaign called the “72-Hour Plan.” It helped produce a surprise victory for GOP candidates in the first midterm in 2002 and overwhelmed massive Democratic spending and voter registration drives in 2004 to carry Bush to a 3 million vote victory and expand the Republican majority in the Senate to 10 seats.

* Ray Hanania: Daley Kicks Off Campaign With Fire and Brimstones

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