Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » Dueling polls
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Dueling polls

Monday, Oct 30, 2006

Two different media companies, two different Cook County Board president polls, two widely different results. The reason? Most likely it’s because the Tribune poll is recent and has a reasonable sample size, while the Daily Herald/ABC7 poll is ancient and has a tiny sample size.

First, the Tribune poll of 484 likely voters conducted Thursday through Sunday:

Stroger leads Peraica 48 percent to 33 percent with 17 percent of voters undecided—a significant gain for the Democrat since a similar poll about three weeks ago showed the contest a virtual tie.

While Stroger has surged, Peraica’s support has slipped among voter groups who are key to his chances, according to the poll of 484 likely voters conducted Thursday through Sunday. The poll has an error margin of 5 percentage points.

The new poll shows Todd Stroger increasing his advantage among city voters beyond what had already been a significant margin. The survey found 62 percent of city voters back Stroger, compared to 50 percent almost two weeks ago. At the same time, Peraica’s support in the city was essentially unchanged at 24 percent. […]

The survey found 63 percent of Democrats now say they support Stroger, up from 59 percent in the previous poll. Stroger’s support among African-American voters increased by 4 percentage points, to 79 percent.

Peraica’s edge among suburban Cook County voters has slipped to 44 percent from 48 percent, while Stroger’s suburban support rose to 32 percent from 28 percent.

Meanwhile, the latest Daily Herald/ABC poll is of just 300 voters taken Oct. 16 to 22, meaning the margin of error is plus-or-minus 6 percentage points and some results are more than two weeks old. So, the poll doesn’t take into account many of the ads that have been aired by Stroger or much of the field work by the Democratic machine.

Even though many don’t know him, Republican board member Tony Peraica led Democratic pinch hitter Todd Stroger by 9 percentage points, 51 percent to 42 percent, the Daily Herald/ABC7 Chicago poll found.

To know Stroger apparently is to not love him, poll results show. Stroger, a Chicago alderman chosen to replace his father on the ballot after the primary, was known to 87 percent of those surveyed, but supported by less than half of them. On the other hand, Peraica was unknown to 42 percent, but still favored by more than half of those polled.

“If people know Stroger and not Peraica, they’ll vote for Peraica,” said Richard Day, whose Evanston-based firm conducted the poll. “It’s remarkable.” […]

Stroger was viewed unfavorably by more than half of those polled, 53 percent, and favorably by 24 percent - a 2-to-1 negative margin. Peraica was thought of unfavorably by 24 percent and favorably by 39 percent, with 42 percent unfamiliar with him.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Establishment Republican - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:36 pm:

    Which set of results is closer to the internals in *both* campaigns?

    Are there really that many undecided voters?

    Which way are they likely to break?

    Interesting questions to ponder.

  2. - raul - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:39 pm:

    from what i can see on the streets todd stroger will win by seven percent he has the momentum and the party is finally coming to his aid. I hear he just got a half million dollar loan that will keep him on television thru election day.

  3. - archpundit - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:59 pm:

    Why would you do a poll of 300 voters for County Board President which has far more people in it than the two Congressional races which you polled 500 people?

    Statistically it doesn’t matter much what the population is if you have good sampling techniques, but it’s a bit odd to not at least reduce the reduce the numbers polled for the Congressional races by say 75 and add them to the other poll if cost is the reason.

  4. - JakeCP - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:07 pm:

    This is why I don’t take polls seriously.

  5. - fedup dem - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:28 pm:

    The Chicago area is notorious for candidate polls that have blown up in the pollster’s face. A lot of people, when asked to respond in a poll, will lie or give a misleading answer.

    Remember the poll 10 years ago that said Jack O’Malley would crush Dick Devine in the Cook County State’s Attorney’s race? It turned out that Devine toppled O’Malley fairly easily.

    All I can add to this is that there are too many people (including normally strong Democrats) who are saying “No way!” to Toddler as County Board President. (I’m one of them.) I can also note the total lack of signage on Stroger’s behalf throughout a number of Democratic strongholds, such as Democratic County Chairman Tom Lyons’ own 45th Ward.

    I suspect that in two weeks time if you want to see that Tribune pollster on the job you’ll have to call for pizza delivery.

  6. - Nickname - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 1:06 am:

    People aren’t voting for Todd. They’re voting against Dan Proft’s HIDEOUSLY EMBARASSING hair style.

    No man out of college should have the hair style Mr. Proft has. He’s a great guy, but, brother, you need a haircut.

  7. - Deck Marker, Potluck & Roly Poly - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 2:24 am:

    One of these 2 polls is very wrong. What we need to see is some crosstabs. Cook county is very difficult to randomize.

    I am leaning towards the ABC7 poll. From what I understand Peraica’s internals had him up by 8. Stroger’s internals had Peraica up by 6. Both campaigns had it a dead heat about 6 weeks ago.

    I think the undecideds are breaking for Peraica. No one can really vote for Stroger. And Peraica isn’t known enough to turn them away.

    This is going to be very interesting.

  8. - Real Clear - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 8:12 am:

    Well in 7 days all the hype will be over.

    There has been so much confusion in this race, I think a lot of people in Chicago especially don’t even understand that Peraica’s a Republican yet. Once they do, this race breaks wide open.

    Cook is just too hard core Dem for a Republican to win countywide these days, especially in such a Democrat year. Of course Peraica has done little to remedy that over the years, as he’s gone back and forth, back and forth, changing his party affiliation.

    Now he’s landed on “Republican” but there’s no Republican Party to help him.

    Stroger wins by double digits, and I bet it will be more like 15. Whether that will be good for Cook County is another question. But that’s reality.

  9. - The Picolo Player is a... - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 9:06 am:

    Todd will win. Tony better start thinking about Gomolinski. Word has it that are more signs in peoples yards for Gomolinski in Peraica’s District that there are Peraica signs on public property (which is saying something), must less in people’s yards.

    An interesting note: I saw about 7 Peraica signs in a North Riverside forest preserve yesterday. The irony? Not only does that violate the law, Tony is also the guy who led the fight against the Board President’s name being on forest preserve signs.

    Sorry, but that is funny beyond words. Same kind of funny as when he loses on Tuesday.

    GO TODD!

  10. - Caveat Eligorum - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 9:48 am:

    The Peraica poll is a farce! 300 voter sample! This is a disgrace by any metric! Where did they get this sample? Barrington? Hinsdale (the Cook part)? Palos Heights? Tony’s losing and needs these newspaper stories to prop him up. He is even losing in the 16th District!

  11. - Northern Man - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 11:10 am:

    The Tribune hires a pollster who uses “random digit dialing” instead of working off of voter lists. It’s cheaper but a lot less accurate. I don’t know why they don’t just spend a little more money and get a real pollster.

  12. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 12:53 pm:

    ===The Tribune hires a pollster who uses “random digit dialing” instead of working off of voter lists. It’s cheaper but a lot less accurate. I don’t know why they don’t just spend a little more money and get a real pollster.

    RDD isn’t an uncommon practice or necessarily less accurate. The problem with voter lists are unlisted numbers can’t be identified and included. In fact, that could be one problem with the CD/RT poll that works from voter lists. RDD reaches unlisted numbers though one has to determine if the person is registered.

    The choice of list or RDD is a methodological one that involves balancing the pros and cons of each. It’s simply not true to say that those who use RDD are not real pollsters.

    The effectiveness of registration based polling is still be tested in comparison to RDS because of the challenges related to the quality of the lists and unlisted phone numbers.

  13. - KPO'M - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 1:29 pm:

    Todd will win in a landslide. The Democrats have their drones (aka the staunch “my Democrats, right or wrong” city and county workers) in force. So much for reform in Cook County.

  14. - Tim H. - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 1:58 pm:

    This just goes to show how horrible of a candidate Peraica is. He’s had the full arsenal of the Chicago media tarnishing and disrespecting Ald. Stroger’s good name. All summer long it’s been corruption this, toddler that while the ultimate shyster, Comm. Peraica, got a pass from the media. The bull has been piling up a mile high…

    Todd misled everyone about his dad’s
    health - BULL!

    Todd held back his dad’s resignation
    so that a third party candidate would
    not be able to get on the ballot - BULL!

    Todd has never been elected to any
    office - BULL!

    Finally, the time is near for the day of reckoning.

  15. - Sammy Esposito - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 2:28 pm:

    Another problem with the Herald/Ch 7 poll methodology: They were “in the field” seven days, Oct. 16 - 22. Seven days to survey 300 voters? C’mon! That’s not a “snapshot” of voter attitudes, it a choppy 8mm home movie. And why the week-long wait before the results are published/broadcasted?

    The Trib’s 15 point margin for Stroger seems a little generous, but there’s no arguing with the poll’s science.

    Attn. Fed up dem: the Devine 1996 example you brought up should give no solace to the Peraica forces. If anything, that election proved pollsters sometimes underestimate the sheer strength of the Democratic vote in Cook County.

    If Stroger wins this thing as comfortably as the Trib poll indicates he might, there can be no debate that Cook is the most Democratic county in America. Why even bother with a general election?

  16. - What? - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 2:46 pm:

    I think if you average the Trib and Herald, that’s probably where the race is really at right now.

    By the way, anyone seen that photo of Peraica with Pat Buchanan on his website? Nice ’stache.

    Why in the world would you put that on your own website?

    If it was Stroger with Al Sharpton, he’d be tarred and feathered.

  17. - Anon - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 4:47 pm:

    I held out my hand at the Orange line station (Washington Street) during rush hour going home to take a Peraica flyer. When the Peraica volunteer saw I was African-American, he snatched it back. Is this representative of Peraica?

  18. - KPO'M - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 6:14 pm:

    General elections are basically just coronations in Cook County. That’s why I (unlike the vast majority of voters) actually went to the polls back in March and took a Democratic ballot. Unfortunately, that meant I didn’t have a say in who the GOP nominated for governor. We really need to just skip the election in November and just hold a non-partisan primary in March and be done with it. If no candidate wins a majority, then hold the runoff between the top two a month later, or better yet, use a “second choice” voting system as they do in Europe.

  19. - Nickname - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 7:52 pm:



  20. - Ignatius J. Reily - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 8:56 pm:

    Calling Rich Miller– Calling Rich Miller–Come In Rich– How do you Read?

    Is this post about blogs or can we let loose like the confederates above and not get censured?


  21. - Ignatius J. Reily - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 9:16 pm:

    This post is apparently not about Dueling Poll Numbers. At any rate what’s really eating away at some at the chumps/dunces is that an immigrant might beat the pliant little twerp and put in motion the following:

    May 10, 2006 on Illinoize

    At 11:48 PM, Ignatius J. Reily said…

    If history is prologue then what about this screenplay:

    Peraica will loose but Daley will have to mobilize all of his imperial guards to ward off the insurgency in the provinces. All tolled, the campaign to defeat Peraica, retributions against Daleyites in the GOP, a softened populace, insubordination amongst elected appointees, internal squabbling and mounting loses from Fitzgerald’s advances will prove to be insurmountable. In the end, a last stand defence by women, adolescent boys and old men will be overrun by opportunistic invasions of Hispanics and African Americans lead by 2 charismatic congressmen who will restore the republic. One from the north, the other from the south.

  22. - Ignatius J. Reily - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 9:44 pm:

    Correction: Scratch the “2″ and “north” above (that one’s been bought off) and replace with “1 ..from the south”

  23. - Bobby Douglas - Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 1:32 am:

    Ya know polls are interesting. Spend some time knocking on doors and actually talking to voters from both dem and rep areas of all races(like 6 months of it), that will tell you where the voters stand. If anyone wins the Peraica / Stroger race by a large margin it will be Peraica.

    I remember what Judy Topinka did to the Republican Primary voter in 2004…..she turned her back on them in choosing Alan Keys. The Democrat party did the same thing to the Democrat Primary voter in 2006 in choosing Todd Stroger.

    Primary voters are few and far between, we have long memories. Politicians should never turn their back on their primary voters.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Illinois payrolls were up just 0.5 percent last year
* Vitriol continues in Durkin's primary race
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Judge clears courtroom in Rauner lawsuit hearing
* You can't "fully inform" voters without money
* State agrees to a $400 million consent decree
* Rate Prizker's new online ad
* Rauner gets another property tax press pop
* Emanuel pokes Rauner over Amazon comments
* Rauner's new Pritzker ad cost just $11,900
* Kennedy unveils health care plan
* Gov. Rauner gets his own blog
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...






* Rauner trash talks his own state—as Amazon look.....
* Rate Prizker's new online ad - The Capitol Fax .....
* Rauner gets another property tax press pop - Th.....
* Emanuel pokes Rauner over Amazon comments - The.....
* Rauner's new Pritzker ad cost just $11900 - The.....
* Details Sought on Gov's Plan to Fix IL Veterans.....

* Illinois court again upholds Drew Peterson murder conviction
* Man sues driver in crash that killed pregnant wife, 3 sons
* Court in Chicago to hear arguments on sanctuary cities
* Ex-mayor of Chicago suburb pleads guilty in bribery scheme
* University of Illinois board chairman re-elected to 2nd term
* Grants will help students pay for trip to Lincoln museum
* Court in Chicago to hear arguments on sanctuary cities
* 30-year sentence for man in sexual assault of elderly woman
* Champaign man pleads guilty in '85 murder case
* Champaign man pleads guilty in '85 murder case

* U of I trustees approve 4th-straight tuition freeze
* Rauner to air extended ad of Pritzker, Blagojevich on wiretap
* Mendoza to keynote Women's March Saturday in Springfield
* Chicago mayor vows to step up Amazon second headquarters bid
* Under the Dome Podcast: More Blago-Pritzker talk, Rauner confirms Duke is racist
* U of I withdrew 35 job offers after background checks
* Frerichs: Can't get tax break for using college savings plan on private K-12 tuition
* Illinois governor to air extended ad of rival, Blagojevich on wiretap
* Chicago a finalist for Amazon's second headquarters
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $26M in last 3 months

* Coming to the Gold Coast: a boutique and cafe
* Discover topping credit-card rivals in growth—and bad loans
* What should a corporation value above all else?
* Discover topping credit-card rivals in growth—and bad loans
* United to offer upgraded economy section on some global flights

* Little Village family of slain woman needs us to show up for them
* Actor Bradford Dillman, starred in ‘The Way We Were,’ on Broadway, dies at 87
* 63-year-old man reported missing from Gresham
* LETTERS: To improve special education in CPS, collaborate with parents
* Let Dreamers stay ‘in the only country we’ve ever known’
* Woman hit, killed by vehicle in Dolton
* Fall Out Boy ‘Mania’ to hit Wrigley Field
* Man killed in County Club Hills shooting
* Jeremy Roenick rips NHL fans who are critical of Kid Rock
* Horoscope for Jan. 20, 2018

* Trump, Schumer meet at White House as a divided congress hurtles toward government shutdown
* Woman carjacked at gunpoint while waiting to pick up grandchildren at Portage Park school
* Torture was 'severe, pervasive, prolonged' in house where California parents starved their 13 children
* Elmwood Park woman found dead after a week in snow-covered car; no foul play suspected: police
* Olympic gold medalist Jordyn Wieber to Larry Nassar: I won't live as a victim any longer
* Brian Urlacher likes the Bears' Matt Nagy hire, and, oh yeah, he's a mountain biker now
* Father of Maine South basketball player dies in car crash on way to son's game
* Buyers spend $10 million on historic Winnetka mansion, then apply to demolish it
* Help Squad: Diminished value claim in car-sharing now a legal tangle
* Inmate accused of exposing himself in front of girl at Cook County Jail

» Sheriff Offers To Help Review Police Shootings In Suburban Cook County
» A Prescription For Fruits And Veggies: One Solution To Food Insecurity in Illinois
» A Call For Transparency
» 2 Illinois Governor Candidates Spend $26M In Last 3 Months
» State Board of Education: Double School Funding Now
» Lawmakers Demand Fast Internet For Rural Schools
» 2 Dreamers Discuss Helping Other Immigrants Amid Uncertainty
» Rauner Spokesman: 'Governor Believes David Duke Is A Racist'
» Rauner Signs Law To Help Women Behind Bars
» A Poor Neighborhood In Chicago Looks To Cuba To Fight Infant Mortality

* Point: Trump's stance gives hope to an Iranian majority that longs for freedom
* Counterpoint: Trump's assertive policies rally Iranian support for the Ayatollahs
* Thumbs Up: To investing in infrastructure
* Eugene Robinson: An administration with no credibility cannot lead
* U of I trustees approve 4th-straight tuition freeze
* Rauner to air extended ad of Pritzker, Blagojevich on wiretap
* Mendoza to keynote Women's March Saturday in Springfield
* Chicago mayor vows to step up Amazon second headquarters bid
* Under the Dome Podcast: More Blago-Pritzker talk, Rauner confirms Duke is racist
* U of I withdrew 35 job offers after background checks

* WHO Radio brings tractor ride to QC
* Family of I-55 crash victim sues trucker, his business, and the construction company
* Noon update: Mostly sunny, American Pickers' 8th season and Linda Cook's instant reactions
* Voters crown North Scott student champ of Best Deer Photo Contest
* Girl hit, pinned underneath car near Moline middle school Friday
* Facebook is changing its news feed. Here's how to keep up with local news
* Vet center grows by leaps, bounds
* Do you favor legalizing marijuana? Then here’s whom to vote for.
* HHS girls win 12 straight, clinch share of MVC
* This Belleville business helps you relive your childhood and meet your sports heroes

* Schaumburg Renaissance lobby, lounge to get $1.1 million renovation
* Latest: Raisman: Nassar taken down by 'army' of survivors
* Color galore in Paris as menswear gets bold
* Sister-in-law's FaceTiming ruins New Year's Eve
* Oak Brook company sells Starbucks-anchored center

* Suburban Democrats line up to challenge Ro...
* Dissident artist Ai Weiwei and US Rep. Ran...
* Kane County assessor: No guarantee your ta...
* Tioga State Bank president and CEO address...
* This RSS feed URL is deprecated
* Bipartisan Illinois criticism follows Trum...
* Time Magazine's Powerful Cover Features Fi...
* Letters to the editor: Election commission...
* Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and...
* Lawmakers back renaming Warrenville post o...

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Republican leaders pressure members agains......
* The “Shithole” Cover-up - Slate Magazine...
* Republican leaders pressure members agains......
* Republican leaders pressure members agains......

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Russia: Vancouver meeting is aggravating s......

* St. Vincent at the Chicago Theatre, and more of the best things to do in Chicago this weekend
* From the archive: What we've learned in the year since the last Women's March
* Durkin attacks Burr Ridge in GOP primary campaign; village board threatens lawsuit
* Chicago makes Amazon cut - but could the city's workforce meet the demands?
* King.
* Ground Breaking for Chicago Public Library Whitney Young Media Center Renovation
* Ahead of Janus, union haters are collecting teacher names.
* Illinois has plenty of other dysfunctional nursing homes Governor Rauner should visit
* Bay Area bassist Lisa Mezzacappa emerges as a dynamic bandleader on two recent albums
* Guitarist Randy Randall on how No Age have adapted to family time—and what their odd new album title means

* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

* Razer Phone 2 may launch in August alongside Project Linda
* Apple Seeds Fifth Beta of watchOS 4.2.2 to Developers
* [Opinion] Let’s face it: Huawei’s Mate 10 Pro was always doomed in the US
* Hopes for Razer Project Linda, crisis at LG Mobile | #PNWeekly 288 (LIVE at 3p ET)
* New Galaxy S9 hardware details rumored
* OnePlus confirms credit card security breach, up to 40k users ‘may be’ affected
* OnePlus confirms up to 40,000 customers were impacted by credit card hack

* WLS parent company looking to end White Sox radio deal
* Inbox: Who replaces Rodon in the rotation?
* 2018 South Side Sox Hall of Fame Ballot
* With maturity comes lofty expectations for Eloy
* Collins ranked MLB's No. 9 catching prospect
* With maturity comes lofty expectations for Eloy
* Pirates rebuild not met with enthusiasm

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller