Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » Fresh polls in 6 & 8
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fresh polls in 6 & 8

Monday, Oct 30, 2006

Constituent Dynamics has released two new polls for the 6th and 8th Congressional Districts.

* Three weeks ago, the polling firm had Peter Roskam slightly ahead of Tammy Duckworth, 47-46. Now, they’ve got Duckworth edging Roskam 48-47. Crosstabs here. Click below for a larger image.


* Two weeks ago, they had Congresswoman Melissa Bean neck and neck with Dave McSweeney, 47-44. Now they’ve got Bean ahead by a more comfortable 50-45.

However - and this is a big however - for the second time in a row the organization has failed to poll the third candidate in the race, rendering this poll useless — The Archpundit has convinced me that the third party candidate is probably picked up in the “other” category. I’d still like to see the candidate in, but the poll is not totally useless. Crosstabs.


If they can’t even figure out that there are three candidates in this race, you gotta wonder whether they can be believed on anything else.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Squideshi - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:35 pm:

    Rich wrote, “However - and this is a big however - for the second time in a row the organization has failed to poll the third candidate in the race, rendering this poll useless.”

    I’m glad that you’re raising this point, Rich. Thanks for standing up for good journalism!

  2. - Rawlings - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:44 pm:

    Just keep searching online, you can find a poll showing your candidate in the lead….these polls, and the attention they get, are getting old….only one more week to go until the real polling counts, thank GOD!!

  3. - Lovie's Leather - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:39 pm:

    I second that, Rawlings. It is amazing how much that the polls vary in the last couple weeks. It is either a symptom of a bi-polar Illinois, or of crazy polling methods, or… and let me be explicit… selective polling. I can’t wait for this to be over. At the very least, we’ll have a new 6th district congressman/woman and a new treasurer. Isn’t that exciting, Illinois?…?!

  4. - fedup dem - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:02 pm:

    I don’t think it will matter that much on November 7, but your point on the absence of the third candidate is valid. Whomever paid these bozos to conduct this poll should sue them for fraud!

  5. - Bridget Dooley - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:27 pm:

    I’m pretty skepticall all around about Constituent Dynamics. Aren’t they a new outfit? Their polling for IL-10 was wayyyyy off compared to other pollsters.

  6. - Archpundit - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:32 pm:

    It’s not useless. There is the other category and it didn’t break 1% in either of the first two polls and came in at 3% this time. They specifically point this out in their methodology section:

    ==We’ve learned a great deal along the way, initially from the trailblazing work of SurveyUSA, and by carefully analyzing our own results. We have done few controlled experiments, but we usually try something new each time out, hoping to achieve continuous improvement.

    ===This particular instrument was drafted in collaboration with Thom Riehle. We went through several drafts and considered and ultimately rejected a series of issues questions before deciding on the current content.

    ===While the names are different, the form of the congressional preference questions is identical, providing an option for “some other candidate” in every race. Our typical approach is to list each candidate on the ballot, but in this case the desire to compare across 30 districts came first. Of course in a few jurisdictions with contested September primaries we were forced to ask some generic major party candidate questions as well.


    It’s not uncommon to leave off 3rd party candidates who aren’t registering over a couple percentage points as volunteered answers. When you are trying to get accurate polling data adding names can be a problem as well for accurate results. Not many people go into the booth and vote for a non-major party candidate without knowing to volunteer the name.

    With only one other candidate on the ballot it would be nice to have it, but it doesn’t make the poll worthless.

    The DH poll puts him at 2% strong backing with 6% weak backing compared to 3% other in the CD/RT poll. Most likely, Scheuer will come in closer to 2% than 8%.

  7. - knotatrooper - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:11 pm:

    I have had several folks not involved in the campaign tell me they got called on the poll. And they said they will vote for Scheurer. Now the DCC is taking out slime ads against him. Just shows, he is really polling much higher than is comfortable for the dems. In fact, he has enough support right now to guarantee Bean loses. So I guess a vote for Bean is the wasted vote. The race is between Scheurer and McSweeney now. Time to come over from the dark side and vote for peace. You know you want to. Just do it!

  8. - Wumpus - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:10 pm:

    Separate question, ho wtall is Todd Stroger? Every time i see him in a chair on tv, he looks like a …Toddler. It is not relevant to my vote, but I know tall guys usually win the race for President and given his underwhelming credentials, a bright eyed child does not instill confidence. ABC News reports that:
    Peracia 51
    Toddler 42
    Undecided 7

  9. - VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:18 pm:

    Polls are everywhere and nowhere. We just might find out that few polls know what they are doing on election night.

    It is getting harder to believe most of them. They swing here and there. They used to be useful only when telling us “who is ahead”. Now, they don’t even do that anymore.

    It is difficult to believe that voters are as insane as the polls indicate. A 16 point swing for Blagojevich? Thats freaking nuts. Polls are looking like a bunch of nothing. I used to look at them with a jaundiced eye, add 5% to the Republican percentage and take a guess. Now, we can’t even do that.

    Is it some kind of plan to make polls look bad? Or are polls just losing it? Who is answering these land phones? I haven’t had one for years, and it seems only my parents do. Are they calling geezers? Who the heck are they calling?

    When polls give results like this, and they have been striking out for months now, you have to start wondering about all of them. They were a valuable tool. Not anymore.

  10. - Squideshi - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:37 pm:

    Archpundit wrote, “It’s not uncommon to leave off 3rd party candidates who aren’t registering over a couple percentage points as volunteered answers.”

    This is called a bias in favor of Republicans and Democrats. It only serves to perpetuate the status quo because the polls, themselves, are a type of free publicity for the candidates.

    If a candidate makes it onto the ballot, a difficult thing to do in Illinois, then the media and pollsters should treat that candidate as a serious candidate. The candidate should be invited to debates and included in articles.

    It’s precisely BECAUSE of discrimination like this that new party candidates have such a hard time.

  11. - Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:43 pm:

    This close to election day, you gotta include a third party candidate who seems viable, in my opinion.

  12. - Archpundit - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:08 pm:

    ===It’s precisely BECAUSE of discrimination like this that new party candidates have such a hard time.

    Rich has a valid point–and I don’t entirely disagree with him and would prefer to include Scheuer–that said, there’s not much evidence that they are missing much.

    But in response to the above the reality is that polls are about estimating voter support and fairly consistently polls overestimate candidates and become less accurate when including third party candidates that are polling around the margin of error.

    It isn’t because he’s not included that Scheuer isn’t doing well, it’s because no one knows who he is. If he spends all the rest of his money he can reach voters with one mailing. If he halves his universe to Democratic leaning voters he can do two. I would argue for most 3rd Party candidates findings of being around 2-3 percent hurt them more than anything else.

    It’s a first past the post system that kills 3rd parties, not all of the other reasons 3rd parties like to claim.

  13. - Nickname - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 1:03 am:


    If I were Melissa Bean, I would not at all be worried considering that the NRCC has to rely on the Daily Herald ENDORSEMENT OF HER (which they clearly show in their negative ad) to find something on which to attack her. That’s really desperate.

    She’s a cinch to win.

  14. - Squideshi - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 9:14 am:

    ArchPundit wrote, “It’s a first past the post system that kills 3rd parties, not all of the other reasons 3rd parties like to claim.”

    I agree that this is a major problem. In fact any system that allows a candidate to be elected without a majority of the vote, such as our current system, is seriously flawed. A plurality is simply not enough to elect a candiate, because the majority may actually be opposed to the candidate elected.

    We need to replace our system of minority (plurality) elections with a system that ensures majority rule. Of course, the most common way to do this is to use run-off elections; however, Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) is a far better option because it is less expensive, improves voter turnout, and reduces negative campaigning.

    Attorney General Madigan has already issued an opinion stating that home rule municipalities may use IRV with referendum approval; but we’ve also had several good IRV bills introduced in the Illinois General Assembly, that never make it out of the House Rules Committee. These include HB0843 in the 94th, HB3301 and HB4011 in the 93rd, and HB6293 in the 92nd.

    IRV is a common sense election reform supported across the political spectrum. Why aren’t these bills coming out of the House Rules Committee?

    I am of the opinion that with a Democratic House, Senate, and Governor, Illinois Democrats have no right to complain about any spoiler effect. They have been given the solution, but they refuse to use it. They are the only ones that have the power to make this change; so the responsibility for any “spoiled” votes lies squarely at their own feet.

  15. - IL Dem - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 11:22 am:

    All of consitituent dynamic polls seem to be well off the mark compared to every campaign poll released. Kirk and Seals both released polls with an 18-20 point difference, then CD has them neck and neck.

    Bean released a poll with a 19 point lead, then she’s only up by 3. This seems to be the saem the same across the coutnry.

    Is there something different in the way they conduct these polls?

    As for Bean, I’ve seen polls from her, but not from McSweeney. Every other congressional race in IL has been releasing their numbers (Seals, Weller, Kirk, Duckworth, Roskam, etc.) Has McSweeney released anything? I don’t think he has which leads me to believe his numbers are not as good as these CD polls suggest. (PS - IMHO any candidate on the ballot should be included in any poll)

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Question of the day
* Here we go again...
* Who raised what in AG race?
* Warning issued over putting medically fragile children in Medicaid managed care
* Schakowsky, Gutierrez endorse Lipinski's Democratic opponent
* Rauner tied to Greitens, Pritzker tied to Blagojevich
* Some states looking for ways around federal tax law
* *** UPDATED x2 - Pritzker, Rauner, RGA respond *** Watch Dem candidates appear at Sun-Times
* Poll: Rauner leads Ives 65-21
* Not the governor's greatest day
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Kennedy needs to dig deeper, but can he?
* The fight for second place
* Group offers possible fix to problems with Rauner's AV
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...






* ISBE is right to hold state data close..
* Perennial candidate asks question that just won.....
* Cook County Clerk David Orr: When billionaires .....
* VMT tax criticism includes double taxation and .....
* Straub calls Durkin's ties to Democrats a poten.....
* 2 Illinois Governor Candidates Spend $26-Millio.....
* Rauner Spokesman: 'Governor Believes David Duke.....
* State Proposing Doubling Spending On Education .....

* Judge keeping some documents secret in Hastert lawsuit
* Ex-Ataris bassist indicted, accused of telemarketing fraud
* Rock bassist indicted, accused of telemarketing fraud
* Suspect in terror-related case claims 'combatant immunity'
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $28M in last 3 months
* Chicago group sues US Steel over Indiana plant's discharges
* 2nd case of measles confirmed in person who was at O'Hare
* Illinois woman gets 15 years for crash that killed teen
* University of Illinois trustee seat has been empty a year
* 6 face charges involving drugs, stolen electronics

* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $28M in last 3 months
* Statehouse bill would connect rural schools to high-speed internet
* Statehouse bill would connect rural schools to high speed internet
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $26M in last 3 months
* Education officials want to double state budget for schools
* University of Illinois trustee seat has been empty a year
* Rauner campaign: 'Governor believes David Duke is a racist'
* Rauner defends amendatory veto of school funding bill
* Rauner signs bill to focus on needs of female prison inmates
* Rauner tours Lincoln prison, touts reforms helping female inmates

* Dow set to close above 26,000 for first time
* Dow closes above 26,000 for first time
* Apple to build 2nd campus, hire 20,000 in $350B pledge
* Theresa Mintle is trying on academia for size
* Emanuel picks up a re-election rival

* Judge keeping some documents secret in Hastert lawsuit
* Police: Officer punched by driver of stolen vehicle on Northwest Side
* Paul Vallas ‘seriously considering’ mayoral run against Rahm Emanuel: report
* Perennial candidate asks question that just won’t go away
* Informing Trump: Chicagoans voice fears, anger as deportation deadline looms
* Sneed exclusive: Michelle Obama’s laid-back birthday bash
* 2 people wounded in Albany Park shooting
* 2 people wounded in Albany Park shooting
* AP: In honor of ‘The Post,’ the top 10 newspaper movies
* AP: In honor of ‘The Post,’ the top 10 newspaper movies

* Archdiocese: 5 Catholic schools to close, several parishes merge
* Warriors respect talent and potential of Bulls' Lauri Markkanen
* St. Cyprian school to close; River Grove church to form united parish with Elmwood Park's St. Celestine
* Scotty Bowman says he thinks Corey Crawford’s injury concussion-related
* Incarnation Catholic, Our Lady of the Ridge to close at school year's end
* Los Angeles security guard suspected of raping dozens of women, some as young as 15, arrested after victim escapes
* Bannon agrees to Mueller interview but objects to immediate return before Hill committee
* Talks to avoid government shutdown hit roadblocks one day before vote
* Bears coach Matt Nagy focuses on simplicity in developing and teaching new offense
* South Bend-area hospitals stretched thin by severe flu season, emergency room waits up to 8 hours

» 2 Illinois Governor Candidates Spend $26M In Last 3 Months
» State Board of Education: Double School Funding Now
» Lawmakers Demand Fast Internet For Rural Schools
» 2 Dreamers Discuss Helping Other Immigrants Amid Uncertainty
» Rauner Spokesman: 'Governor Believes David Duke Is A Racist'
» Rauner Signs Law To Help Women Behind Bars
» A Poor Neighborhood In Chicago Looks To Cuba To Fight Infant Mortality
» Democratic Candidates In Lockstep At Justice Forum
» Dem Candidates In Lockstep At Justice Forum
» Chicago Sees Record Number Of Visitors In 2017

* Our View: Focus on cost-cutting, then turn to taxes
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $28M in last 3 months
* Statehouse bill would connect rural schools to high-speed internet
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $26M in last 3 months
* Education officials want to double state budget for schools
* University of Illinois trustee seat has been empty a year
* Rauner campaign: 'Governor believes David Duke is a racist'
* Our View: Dubious tariff endangers newspapers' future
* Byron York: Paul Manafort has a point
* EJ Dionne: Will Trump exhaust our democratic capacities?

* Catching up with...Ed Hightower
* District 118 considers adding fall break
* PHOTOS: Millikin University Women's Basketball Invited Special Olympics Teams For Skills Demonstration
* Clarification for Jan. 18
* SWIC board votes to eliminate childcare service at Belleville campus
* Boil order issued for 12 metro-east communities; 2 schools cancel
* Ex-gang member sentenced in 2015 shooting death of 14-year-old boy
* SIUC to host science conference themed around microscopic 'water bears'
* East St. Louis man gets prison time for sexually assaulting 12-year-old girl
* Schlarman girls pace locals in latest AP hoops rankings

* West Chicago teachers could hold strike vote in 'near future'
* Construction of new Willow Creek Huntley church could begin this spring
* Hardiman favors violence-prevention czar, gun restrictions, and no public funds for private schools
* Archaeologists in Mexico claim world's longest flooded cave
* Neymar scores 4 in PSG rout yet still leaves field unhappy

* Tioga State Bank president and CEO address...
* Teacher raised in Yorkville running agains...
* Kane County assessor: No guarantee your ta...
* Dissident artist Ai Weiwei and US Rep. Ran...
* Suburban Democrats line up to challenge Ro...
* Hultgren joins fellow lawmakers fighting t...
* 3 suburban GOP reps provide crucial votes ...
* This RSS feed URL is deprecated
* Our view: End patronage at Algonquin Towns...
* Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and...

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Letter: Grateful for Dick Durbin's fortitu......
* On “The View,” Sen. Dick Durbin defends hi......

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Some Democrats on Capitol Hill push for al......

* The [Wednesday] Papers
* Fix Illinois by breaking the state apart? A gubernatorial candidate makes the case.
* Bruce Rauner wants Quincy veterans' home to remain open after one-week stay, and other Chicago news
* Loy Webb shows us The Light
* Durbin says Trump's Haiti comments were "hate-filled, vile and racist"
* Di Leo: Setting the Record Straight on Israel
* Cabaret star Charles Busch relives his youth in My Kinda 60s
* Black Playwrights Festival At BET
* EXTRA: Ives a movement, or nobody?
* From the archive: The man who built a 33-foot-tall metal Madonna

* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

* YouTube’s new monetization policies are cracking down on smaller channels
* Apple to Lease New Office Building in Culver City
* ASUS joins Project Treble with ZenFone 4 Android Oreo update
* Twitter’s COO believes that streaming devices like Chromecast and Fire TV will disappear in 5 years
* Huawei gets internet excited over 5-minute charging tech from 2015
* HomePod shipments reportedly begin with up to 12 million set for this year
* Nomad’s new wireless charging hub is a traveler’s best friend

* With maturity comes lofty expectations for Eloy
* Pirates rebuild not met with enthusiasm
* Moncada guiding Robert during mini-camp
* White Sox announce player development staff
* Robert at ease during Sox hitters mini-camp
* Moncada guiding Robert during mini-camp
* White Sox announce player development staff

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller