Blagojevich ‘06, Quinn ‘0? *** Updated x1 ***
Sunday, Oct 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Neil Steinberg asks a question that pretty much every insider has been mulling recently. So when do we start viewing the gubernatorial race as being not so much between Judy Baar Topinka and Gov. Blagojevich as between Topinka and Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, who would take over the job should his boss find it necessary to, ah, spend time elsewhere? Marie from Disarranging Mine sent me this photo last week, which she snapped somewhere in Springfield. Other people are getting the idea as well. Meanwhile, the Northwest Herald has endorsed Pat Quinn for reelection. Trouble is, the paper based the endorsement at least partially on the completely false assumption that the lt. governor is elected separately. Lieutenant governor is an independent office, and we are confident Quinn could work with a Republican or Democratic governor. Oops. *** UPDATE *** The meme spreads. Monday’s editorial in the Belleville News-Democrat is entitled “Look beyond Blagojevich.” Quick, who’s the Illinois lieutenant governor? And, perhaps reflecting his greater importance in Illinois politics, the Sun-Times put LG Quinn on Monday’s front page.
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“New” pre-Rezko polling in guv’s race
Saturday, Oct 14, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Warning: Both of these polls were taken before or right around the time of the Tony Rezko indictment, so they’re outdated and almost useless. Keep that in mind, please, when reading what follows. Rasmussen has indicated to subscribers that it will do another poll soon. Events like the Rezko indictment take a few days to “gel” in the public’s mind. As of early Saturday afternoon, Rasmussen’s numbers are still behind a firewall, but subscribers say they have Blagojevich leading Topinka and Whitney 49-43-3, with 5 percent undecided. The September Rasmussen poll had Blagojevich ahead 48-36. Interestingly, 53 percent told Rasmussen they could still change their mind before election day. The Tribune poll was also released last night. The Trib’s poll was taken over four days, with the last one being the day Rezko was indicted, so a small portion of respondents had probably heard of the events, but not enough to make a huge difference. The Trib has Blagojevich ahead 43-29-9, with 19 percent saying “other” or undecided. September’s Tribune poll had Blagojevich ahead 45-33. According to the Trib, 51 percent are dissatisfied with their choice for governor, while 48 percent are satisfied. Topinka has managed to move Blagojevich’s favorables, however. The Trib’s September poll had 43 percent of respondents with a favorable opinion of him and 38 percent with an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers are now 35 favorable and 43 unfavorable. Topinka’s are even worse, however - 25 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, compared to 29 and 40 back in September. Click the image for a better view. * From the Trib story, published late last night: Among Republicans, fewer than half—47 percent—say they have a favorable view of Topinka, who has held statewide office for a dozen years and was a state legislator from suburban Cook County before that. * Real Clear Politics charts all of the polls in this race dating back to June of last year. Click for a larger image. [Real Clear claims the Rasmussen poll was taken on the 12th, but according to people who have seen it, the survey was actually taken Tuesday night, which is before the Rezko indictment.] * You can find this blog’s statewide poll stories by clicking here. * Meanwhile, Green Party candidate Rich Whitney continues to make a splash. ABC7 had a big story yesterday. The story is worth a look.
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Friday afternoon video/radio blogging
Friday, Oct 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * Today’s State Week in Review program from Illinois Public Radio should be good. The archive is here, or just click below. * OneMan responded to my call yesterday for snarky ads to help Gov. Blagojevich out of this mess by actually producing a TV ad himself. Great music. His best effort to date and it can also be found at the Capitol Fax YouTube “vlog.” * Also at the vlog is this kinda goofy but somewhat entertaining “song” for Dan Rutherford’s SoS race: * IIS: Early voting for the November election kicks of Monday * Also from IIS is this bad news for farmers: Asian soybean rust found in IL * This afternoon’s IIS story package inclludes this one about the U of I offering live video visits with soldiers in Iraq * This is a pretty good positive ad for Rod Blagojevich. ![]()
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Friday, Oct 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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This just in… Rezko given another week to appear *** Updated x2 ***
Friday, Oct 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller I was working on my syndicated column and the subscriber-only post and missed this a few minutes ago. Antoin “Tony'’ Rezko, a key adviser to Gov. Rod Blagojevich who was scheduled to appear in court this morning on federal charges, missed his arraignment because he is traveling outside the country, his attorney said. *** UPDATE *** From CBS2: Rezko has also stopped paying taxes on his North Shore mansion. *** UPDATE 2 *** Rezko’s attorney talks about the charges against his client. “Obviously Mr. Rezko feels strongly about these charges in that they’re baseless, and that he will be vindicated at trial. I will tell you, you really need to study these indictments.
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Question of the day
Friday, Oct 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller There were plenty of stories today about how Illinois Democrats were scrambling to dump cash donated to their campaigns by Tony Rezko.
What about the rest of the money? Rezko raised lots of cash for many of those people and committees. Question: Should all of the candidates and committees shed themselves of all Rezko-tainted contributions, including money he helped them raise? Why or why not? Bonus question: Suggest a charity where the money should go.
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New polling has some surprises *** Updated x1 ***
Friday, Oct 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller [Bumped up closer to the top because it was posted so late yesterday. It’s also been slightly edited this morning.] Constituent Dynamics has posted some interesting poll results in IL congressional races. Go here and click on the districts, or just click on the links below: * Roskam-Duckworth, 47-47 (crosstabs pdf) * Hastert-Laesch, 52-42 (crosstabs pdf) * Shimkus-Stover, 53-36 (crosstabs pdf) *** UPDATE *** ArchPundit has DCCC numbers from the Duckworth-Roskam race. IL-06 (Open): Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R)
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They can’t watch it if nobody covers it
Friday, Oct 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller There’s a saying in politics that if it isn’t on TV it didn’t happen. But what about if it’s not on TV? This study is not heartening, but also not surprising. A University of Wisconsin survey of election coverage on local television news in nine Midwest markets found that stations in Springfield-Decatur-Champaign devoted an average of 21 seconds for each 30-minute newscast to election coverage. […] Chicago stations averaged 29 seconds of election coverage. Chicago stations averaged 2 minutes and 3 seconds for “Teasers, bumpers and intros,” compared to 1 minute 51 seconds for Springfield stations. Sports and weather got 6 minutes and 5 seconds in Chicago, and 7 minutes and 17 seconds in Springfield. According to the study, “In Chicago, 31% of the [election] stories aired focused on the gubernatorial race. In Springfield, 48% of stories focused on the gubernatorial race.” I’ll try to get the individual station-by-station breakdowns, so check back later. For now, the Illinois summary is below. Click for a larger image. You can also check out the other state results by clicking here.
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Cellini stuff *** Updated x1 ***
Friday, Oct 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Yesterday, Judy Baar Topinka was asked about her contacts with Bill Cellini. She said she hadn’t spoken to him in ten years. Topinka has never forgiven Cellini for that hotel deal and all the bad press that has resulted. Nevertheless expect the Democrats to try to level the playing field with revelations like this.
You can also expect this story to re-emerge. Questions over Bruner’s votes for Commonwealth come after state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka faced criticism last month for her vote in the spring to invest up to $120 million with Commonwealth from another pension system. That’s because, in 1995, Topinka was set to allow the Cellini-led hotel consortium to repay a $15.5 million state loan at a rate equal to only 25 cents on the dollar. That controversial deal was blocked, and now mounting interest has Cellini and his co-investors holding a $27.5 million IOU to taxpayers. *** UPDATE *** The Tribune had this nugget today: Topinka’s efforts to turn the tables on Blagojevich come after months of being hammered in Blagojevich campaign ads linking her to Ryan, convicted earlier this year on corruption charges. Blagojevich campaign aides said a recent commercial featuring Topinka with Ryan at the Illinois State Fair soon will be replaced with the new ad, which doesn’t name Topinka, Ryan or Bush.
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Still in denial
Friday, Oct 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The governor says he was completely surprised when Tony Rezko was indicted. His other close fundraising pal/adviser Chris Kelly was referred to in Rezko’s indictment, but Blagojevich continues to believe all is well. At least, that’s what he’s saying in public. The Southtown editorial board interviewed the governor and posted the transcript online. Q: But you did not disassociate yourself from Chris Kelly and Tony Rezko. From my Sun-Times column: Once again, Illinoisans are forced to wonder whether their governor is an idiot or a crook or an idiotic crook. […]
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