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Election predictions open thread *** Updated x3 ***
Tuesday, Feb 27, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller [Comments are now closed. Use the thread above.] *** IMPORTANT UPDATE *** A few items of note… * I’ve added a list of results pages, live media and continuous coverage links in a new pull-down menu to the right. Lots of stuff there, so don’t miss it. It looks like the first radio station to go up with continual election coverage will be WBBM at 7 pm. * We’ll have CBS-2’s live feed here at 10 pm. * I forgot to link this earlier, but Crain’s has a new interactive feature that allows you to track Mayor Daley’s contributions in several different ways. Also, Naisy Dolar’s campaign is blogging all day today. * The Reader’s Clout City blog is going gangbusters today with reports from citizen journalists. I’ve created a continuously updating, automated news feed so you can keep track throughout the day and into the evening. Earlier stories that aren’t showing in the feed can be found here… *** UPDATE 2 *** AlderTrack has this report from the 42nd Ward…
Typical. *** UPDATE 3 *** For those of you keeping track of Sheila Simon’s bid for Carbondale mayor, here’s a news feed just for you… I belatedly added a request for Chicago election predictions at the end of Paul’s local roundup this morning, but I thought I’d close out those comments and move everything to the top so we can consolidate it all here. Use the comment section to predict results in local elections. Also, file any precinct reports, observations, etc. you may have. Meanwhile, Irish Pirate, a regular commenter here, has produced a ton of YouTube videos blasting Ald. Helen Shiller. The pirate is backing challenger James Cappleman, the former president of Dignity/Chicago, which his website describes as “a Catholic organization for the GLBT community.” A couple of things. First, some might find this video too harsh. I can understand and empathize, but it was too funny to pass up, particularly the Daley robocall schtick. Second, there are references to the League of Women Voters and Lincoln Park in the video. Shiller upset the LWV by breaking a promise to the group. And Shiller has been quoted as saying that if people don’t like her ward they should “move to Lincoln Park.” “Because as I always said, there is nothing more wholesome than a fish.”  [Comments are now closed. Use the thread above.]
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- Levois - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 10:29 am:
IrishPirate is funny. Now he gets more attention here.
Predictions?
Well I think in the 20th ward of Chicago Arenda Troutman will face a runoff. I think her problems with the law right now will be a problem.
6th Ward. Lyle will face face a runoff with Karin Norington Reaves. I choose her because the two major papers in Chicago endorsed her. That might count for something. Ald. Lyle hasn’t seemed to have endeared herself to many people there.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 10:34 am:
One prediction: Burton is hurtin’ for certain.
Glad I got that off my chest.
- Pat Hickey - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 10:44 am:
I voted for Daley, De Valle, and Ginger Rugai - Your corrspondant was # 1 at 23rd Precinct of the 19th Ward) very warm and friendly and the poll watchers did a great job all around. We vote in a Quaker Meeting House at 107th & Artesian. Sheehan and Rugai workers abounded and shared coffee from Kean. I did not see one Somerville palm card passer.
- Levois - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 10:53 am:
I know this isn’t a prediction, but I didn’t know there were Quakers in Chicago.
Oh yeah and I’m with Rich, Nataurus is in for some hurtin.
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 10:54 am:
Prediction: Runoff in the 49th Ward between Ald. Joe Moore and Don Gordon, although I support Chris Adams. Bring back Foie Gras!!
Ald. Gene Schulter wins in the 47th Ward although my guy Martin Cooney gets 35% of the vote in protest.
- Fire Ron Guenther - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 10:55 am:
Despite Rich’s hand-wringing, editorializing, and bashing of Chief Illiniwek, Ald. Burt Natarus wins in the 42nd Ward and proudly wears a Chief Illiniwek t-shirt at the next Chicago City Council meeting to mock Rich.
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 10:56 am:
I asked Proviso Probe readers for predictions in the Forest Park mayoral primary. The candidates are incumbent Mayor Anthony Calderone and two sitting commissioners: Patrick Doolin and Theresa Steinbach.
The few people who have made predictions seem to think Steinbach will be the low vote getter.
Calderone has about five times as many signs up as Doolin & Steinbach combined. Calderone & Doolin have used multiple direct mail pieces.
In one piece Sen. Kimberly Lightford endorsed Calderone. But the piece didn’t include a pic of Lightford so the reader wouldn’t know she was Black if s/he didn’t know already. Also the letter failed to mention any of Lightford’s accomplishments, so it missed a chance to connect with liberals or any other constituency who would view Lightford’s accomplishments favorably.
BTW, Lightford did a similar piece for Emanuel “Chris” Welch a year ago when he was running against Karen Yarbrough in the Dem primary. That one included a pic. Yarbrough creamed Welch (and former Dem Committeeman Eugene Moore) in Forest Park.
Calderone has “volunteers” at the three polling places I’ve seen, but they are pretty passive. I wasn’t approached when I voted or when I went in the library.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 10:58 am:
FRG, and what will you do if it’s curtains for Burton?
What a horror show for you if that happens. First you lose your goofy dancing white boy mascot, then the developers lose their goofy mascot on the city council.
heh.
- Fire Ron Guenther - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:00 am:
Rich, I will wear an iowa hawkeyes t-shirt with the back part saying “Rich Miller told me so!” LOL!
Alternatively, how about drinks on me at the Union League Club? We can invite your guy Tim Neukirk again.
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:02 am:
electioneering shenanigans in the 49th Ward?
http://morsehellhole.blogspot.com/
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:05 am:
Do you think the Union League Club would let you wear a Hawkeye shirt? It would probably have to be a sweater. No t-shirts there. We could combine the two. lol
But, I don’t want drinks at the ULC. Gene’s. Burt’s turf.
- Pat Hickey - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:07 am:
Levois,
Yes there are Quakers and you won’t meet two nicer people on earth.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:07 am:
Thanks for that link, Ravenswood. They’ve got it going on over there. Go check it out.
- Fire Ron Guenther - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:11 am:
You’re funny, Rich! Gene’s sounds like a plan!
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:13 am:
Yeah, but upstairs. With those Haymarket types. Let’s see them spend some of their own money for a change.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:22 am:
Carl, Lightford appeared on that literature, but she didn’t pay for it, is my recollection. She denied to me that she had even approved the piece.
- Live From Kabul - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:31 am:
Rumor has it that as soon as Dick Cheney is allowed out of the bomb shelter in Afganistan he’ll be heading to the 49th Ward to investigate shennanigans there.
- Wumpus - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:35 am:
I hope Burton loses for certain.
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:38 am:
Rich, to be clear you are writing about the Welch mailing. The Calderone mailing includes a signed letter from Lightford.
- Jerry - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:39 am:
I predict that its curtains for Teddy Matlak.
I got in around 7:15, was number 23 (definitely lower than november when I was 43 or so at 7 am, but better than I expected)
A couple of machine workers were standing on the corner, but they weren’t up to anything shady. One of them tried to give me a palm card, but I buzzed past, telling him I was in a hurry.
Got inside and happily cast my votes for Brown, Wags, and DeValle. Dunno why I voted for DeValle, I didn’t follow that race at all.
- Jerry - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:46 am:
Rich -
Clout City blog at the Chicago Reader is rocking the election day “citizen journalism” coverage here:
http://blogs.chicagoreader.com/politics/
- irishpirate - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 11:56 am:
Thanks for the plug Rich.
It’s gonna be an interesting night.
For those interested check out www.whatthehelen.com
- Utility Infielder - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 12:14 pm:
I envy you ravenswood. That’s the kind of excitement we used to revel in down in the 10th. It’s very dull compared to the Fast Eddie days, council wars, ghost payrolling, I think I’m gonna cry.
- Tim - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 2:42 pm:
There is some talk that election judges are also registering as poll watchers in Chicago’s 32nd Ward. You would be surpised what a person can get away with when they are observing themselves. No surprises, I knew that one would get dirty.
- Tim in the 32nd - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 2:42 pm:
There is some talk that election judges are also registering as poll watchers in Chicago’s 32nd Ward. You would be surpised what a person can get away with when they are observing themselves. No surprises, I knew that one would get dirty.
- Matlakluster - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 3:17 pm:
32 is pulling out whatever stops they can. Judges calling in voters to the Alderman’s office is just one part of it.
The Mayor’s folks are smelling big trouble and are shifting bodies into the ward. I hope it;s too little, too late.
- Skeeter - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 5:30 pm:
Streeterville (42) was quiet today. I walked every inch of it twice [and will be limping around Wednesday as a result].
There was one minor issue with an election judge that would not let poll watchers look over her shoulder and also would not call out the names of voters. The judge was advised that she could do either, but had to do one of the two, and the problem was solved. On a return trip everybody was getting along fine.
There was also a problem with the touch screen voting a few precincts. If the race is very close, this may be an issue. One precinct may lose 25 votes. Error messages on the screen seemed to indicate that was possible.
With that in mind, the issue that comes up is whether David Orr will have a strong challenger if tonight goes long. I like Orr. He’s an honest guy who works hard and that is just about the highest praise I can give somebody. But at a certain point you need to perform and the last few elections have been a mess.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 5:32 pm:
Looking at the few responses for this election it seems no one cares. It’s all corrupt and nothing will ever change. This is the first time in 35years I didn’t bother to vote. It makes no difference. It the biggest corruptest war chest that will win. Illinois politics is nothing but gutter politics. I will no longer participate.
- City Voter - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 7:27 pm:
Is it appropriate in the city of Chicago for an electioneer to try to hand you candidate materials four feet from the door? I was the 95th voter at 6:30pm.
- HappyToaster - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 7:51 pm:
David Orr has nothing to do with the Chicago Board of Elections. Chicago along with Aurora, Bloomington, Danville, Galesburg, East St. Louis, Peoria, and Rockford all have their own election commissions separate from the county. FWIW DuPage has the only countywide election commission. The rest are run by the County Clerks.
- jerry 101 - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 8:39 pm:
city voter - no. 100 feet from the polling place is the law.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 27, 07 @ 10:46 pm:
FRG, I’ll see you at Gene’s this Friday. lol
Comments are now closed. Use the thread above.