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This just in…
Wednesday, Jul 18, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller
* 2:11 pm - IlliniPundit has new poll results….
In general, do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the job Gov.Blagojevich is doing right now?
* Approve: 25.57%
* Disapprove: 64.41%
* Unsure: 10.32%
Details of the AskIllinois poll…
Date of calls: July 12, 2007
Sample size: 2,568
Margin of Error: ±1.93%
Sample makeup: Likely voters
Poll type: Automated
Download it here.
* 2:23 pm - All the leaders except Senate President Emil Jones have arrived for the scheduled leaders meeting with the governor. Quite a few (perhaps 20 or so) rank and file legislators have also shown up, mostly House members.
* 2:25 pm - From the SJ-R…
The U.S. attorney’s office for the Central District of Illinois has created a public corruption unit and tip line.
Details of the task force are being announced at an afternoon news conference.
* 2:27 pm - Senate President Jones arrived at the leaders meeting, telling reporters, “I’m gonna tax all the lies you’ve been writing.” He’s such a kidder, that guy.
* 2:31 pm - ACLU press release…
…According to the report, of all traffic stops in Illinois during calendar year 2006, police officers asked a mere 0.68% of white drivers for “consent” to search their car once the stop was commenced, compared to 2.04% of all minority drivers. The report demonstrated that an African American driver was more than three times more likely to be the target of arequest for a search than a majority driver. […]
Responding to the report, the American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois today called on Governor Rod Blagojevich and the members of the Illinois General Assembly to either prohibit consent searches altogether, or require that police have reasonable suspicion as a precondition to request a search.
“State police forces in California and New Jersey have ended the practice of conducting consent searches,” said Grossman. “The Illinois General Assembly should examine this data and move quickly to bar the practice in our state.”
* 2:35 pm - Does this mean Lauzen is doomed? Roeser’s candidates don’t usually do all that well…
Conservative Carpentersville businessman Jack Roeser is siding with state Rep. Chris Lauzen of Aurora over the man he backed last year for governor–if former House Speaker Dennis Hastert opts not to seek re-election to Congress.
In a missive from his Family Taxpayers Network, Roeser urged Aurora dairyman James D. Oberweis to sit out a GOP primary race for the House in the 14th Congressional District. That is the same Oberweis that Roeser helped bankroll with more than a half-million dollars in an unsuccessful race for the Republican primary nomination for governor last year.
* 3:02 pm - New Feature! Longtime Nadig Newspaper columnist Russ Stewart has asked that I post his weekly columns at the blog. Here’s the first one, entitled “Potential Foes Monitor Stroger’s Credibility.” I’ll also likely cross-post them at Illinoize.
* 3:15 pm - Apparently, state Rep. Tim Schmitz has decided not to run for Congress in Denny Hastert’s district…
Republican state Rep. Tim Schmitz of Batavia Wednesday announced his plans to seek re-election next year.
Schmitz is very close to Hastert, but I’m not sure yet what this means.
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Jul 18, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller
A House Republican-sponsored resolution was all the talk yesterday…
House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) allowed his chamber to vote on a GOP-written resolution that calls on the governor to “reside in Springfield” during the duration of the Legislature’s overtime session or while lawmakers are in special sessions convened by Blagojevich. […]
An aide belittled Tuesday’s vote, insisting the governor had overnighted in Springfield with the exception of this past weekend since declaring the first of eight special sessions in early July.
“The governor’s been here, and it seems like there are more important issues facing the state of Illinois than this that the House could consider,” Blagojevich spokeswoman Rebecca Rausch said.
The Post-Dispatch has this analysis…
The resolution has no legal force, and was dismissed by Blagojevich’s defenders as a cheap attempt to embarrass him. But it’s telling as a measure of the frustration of lawmakers who have been kept at their Springfield desks well into the summer, not allowed to adjourn and powerless to break the budget impasse.
You can read more about it here and here.
Question: Now that the governor has agreed to stay in Springfield until the negotiations are completed (even though he’s taken a couple of trips back to Chicago for a press conference and then a Cubs game last weekend when the General Assembly wasn’t in town), was this a cheap shot that could undermine delicate budget negotiations? If not, explain why. And, please, try to put any knee-jerk hatreds aside.
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Buck a pack tax by the numbers
Wednesday, Jul 18, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The State Journal-Register has an editorial today that lists the benefits of a dollar a pack increase in the state’s cigarette tax. The numbers were provided by the American Lung Association…
* Cigarette pack sale decline in Illinois — 123.3 million.
* Number of current adult smokers in Illinois who would quit — 57,700.
* Increase in total number of kids alive today who will not become smokers — 130,800.
* Long-term health-care savings in Illinois from adult and youth smoking declines — $2.8 billion.
* The paper adds…
Illinois with its current 98-cents-per-pack tax raised about $634 million last year. That’s a significant revenue source, akin to the amount raised by the state lottery. A $1-per-pack increase is estimated to bring in about $412 million more annually. […]
While we sincerely doubt a $1-per-pack tax increase will gain the needed support, if legislators become serious about any significant increase in the cigarette tax, they should demand that some of the money raised be used to underwrite cessation efforts on the part of smokers. Yes, it might cut into the state’s take in the short run, but in the long run it makes both fiscal and moral sense.
* But Joe Calomino of Americans for Prosperity, Illinois, posted these numbers in comments yesterday…
The Effect of a $1/pack Cigarette Tax Hike on Illinois Retailers
* Tobacco Sales are Important to Illinois Retailers – Illinois stores sold 657 million packs of cigarettes in FY 2006, with a gross retail value of nearly $3.2 billion. Illinois merchants earned nearly $560 million in gross profits on these sales.
* Tobacco Sales Support Illinois Jobs - It is estimated that nearly 8,000 Illinois retailer and wholesaler jobs were supported by in-state tobacco sales (based on estimated gross profits). […]
* In spite of large recent tax increases of the Illinois, Cook County, and Chicago cigarette taxes, some are proposing an Illinois cigarette tax hike of $1/pack. This would raise the Illinois state tax to $1.98 per pack. Illinois residents outside of Cook County could save $18.10/carton in Missouri, $16.80 in Kentucky and $9.85 in Indiana. In Chicago the total state and local cigarette tax would be $4.66/pack. A Chicago resident could save over $44.90/carton in Missouri or over $36/carton in Indiana. A van-load of cigarettes from Missouri would have a profit potential of nearly $255,000. Such bootlegger incentives could create a situation reminiscent of the days of Al Capone.
* Loss in Cigarette Sales Volume – Cigarette volume is estimated to fall by nearly 25% on an annualized basis or by 164 million packs due to the proposed $1 tax hike in FY 2008.
* Loss in Sundry Product Sales - Sundry product sales, or products normally bought in conjunction with tobacco products, could fall by nearly $140 million due to the $1 tax hike.
* Loss in Illinois Gross Profits (value added) - Gross profits lost to Illinois retailers and wholesalers are estimated at approximately $116 million due the proposed $1 tax hike.
* Convenience Store Losses - Cigarette sales at C-stores would fall by 100 million packs due to the $1 tax hike. Gross profit losses could average about $15,000 per store
* Revenue Impact - It is estimated that Illinois will gain about $320 million from the $1 tax hike. […]
Taxes Per Pack In Chicago After a $1 IL Tax Hike and 61 cent Federal Tax Hike
Federal Tax/ Pack $1
State Tax/Pack $1.98
Cook County Tax/Pack $2.00
Chicago Tax/Pack .68
State, County, Local Sales Tax .77
Grand Total $6.43
Go here to read more. Joe said he’s working up a post for his Website and it will be up soon.
Thoughts?
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* The Daily Southtown urges a mushroom revolt…
Don’t sit back and let these three men’s childish antics hamstring this great state any further. Let them and your representatives and senators know how you feel. And those representatives and senators need to let the leaders know how they feel, too. We know there is discontent within the rank-and-file, but until the members rise up in unison and tell the leaders to get their acts together, those leaders will continue to treat those members like peons. The leaders need to be sent a message that if problems within the state are not addressed, their days of being leaders are numbered. But based on what’s happened in the past, we know the fearful rank-and-file members will barely utter a peep.
What an embarrassment the state government has become.
Illinois needs a fair, fiscally responsible budget passed now. Problems need to be dealt with through reasoned discussions and compromise — not locker-room antics or crybaby talk or another layer of makeup.
* And Phil Kadner is dubious of Senate President Emil Jones’ renewed emphasis on school funding reform and the whole issue in general…
Down in Springfield, some of the most useless elected officials in the country are holding hearings into education funding. […]
After 15 years of doing basically nothing to help education, after three blue-ribbon panels shouted, “You folks are destroying the public school system in this state,” the Illinois Senate (meeting in special session) is going to spend the entire week listening to education advocates explain it all again. […]
t’s truly amazing how much political juice the folks in Springfield have squeezed out of the education turnip.
Jones knows one thing for certain. If he passes a bill out of the Senate now, it will be dead on arrival in the House, where Madigan and Republicans can kill it. And even if it passes out of the House, the governor has vowed to veto the bill.
Calling these people “useless” may be too kind. They’ve done real harm to the children and taxpayers of this state.
* The Pantagraph notes that we’re heading for a new overtime record…
On July 24, which is less than a week away, the General Assembly and Gov. Rod Blagojevich will surpass their 2004 record for the amount of time the state has gone into a new fiscal year without an overall spending plan.
With little progress to report Tuesday, observers said the record is almost sure to be broken.
* …And checks the latest floor census…
Attendance by lawmakers picked up Tuesday after several days where dozens failed to show up to work. In the Senate, 36 of 59 members were on the floor when the session got under way. The roll call in the 118-member House roll topped 100 for the first time in a week.
* The Pennsylvania overtime session received a lot of national media, mainly because the state shut down government services. That hasn’t happened here yet, but as Mike Skarr notes…
Maybe since our budget crisis has lasted about nine times as long as the Pennsylvania budget woes, we, the taxpayers will get a result that is nine times as good, but probably not.
* Bethany Carson gives us a quick rundown…
The governor has been in town since Monday, but no official leaders’ meetings have convened. The legislature has broken up into small group meetings so far to discuss gaming, a capital plan, education, revenue, agency spending and the Illinois Department of Corrections. They’re closed to the public.
The governor also sent a letter to House Speaker Michael Madigan, House Minority Leader Tom Cross and Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson criticizing them for halting progress on a proposal to expand gaming, which would pay for the debt service on a capital plan and for education. “Negotiations broke down over your refusal to dedicate some portion of new gaming revenue to education,” the governor wrote. He also said, “A budget that invests in infrastructure without providing resources for education and health care is not an option. We must find a way to meet all of our obligations.”
* To which Madigan’s spokesman replied…
“We had $400 million in new education spending in the budget the House passed on May 30. We’ll remind him of that.”
* And state Sen. Terry Link says that gaming ain’t dead yet…
“This is not ‘The Sopranos’, this is more like a soap opera, and nothing is dead down here,” state Sen. Terry Link, D-Waukegan, asserted Tuesday. “It might have looked like it is dead, but it is very much alive.
Link conceded that consensus on the extent of expanded gaming and what the revenue will be used for is “elusive,” but he said there are plenty of incentives for legislators to keep hammering away at a compromise.
“I think you will see some negotiation and compromise before this winds down,” Link said, adding that letting the gaming issue die would amount to “the loss of a lot of revenue” without a tax increase “on any individual.”
* And Sen. Bill Peterson offers this observation…
[Peterson] said there appears to be progress in working out a compromise on electric rates, and added that school aid formula payments are due in August. If the aid formula payments are not made, a lot of districts would be negatively impacted and would have to borrow money, which would not reflect well on the Legislature. “There’s an Aug. 10 drop-dead date to get something done,” he said.
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The redesigned rollout begins
Wednesday, Jul 18, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller
* With the electric rate deal in sight, the push is on for the governor’s health insurance plan. It’s being reworked at the moment (some details are in today’s Capitol Fax), but Cindy Richards has details about a new poll…
llinois legislators like to say they aren’t jumping on the governor’s health care bandwagon because their constituents haven’t demanded they get on board.
Perhaps few of us are calling our legislators. But that doesn’t mean we aren’t worried about ever-rising health care premiums and co-pays. Or concerned the insurance we get from our employers today might be gone tomorrow. Or afraid a major medical expense will leave us bankrupt.
At least that’s what a poll of likely Illinois voters suggests. The poll, to be released today, says the rising cost of health care is the No. 1 concern of Illinois voters. […]
His plan would cap premium rates charged by private insurance companies. In return, the state would use taxpayer money — now likely to be gathered via an assessment on employers that don’t offer health insurance to their workers — to cap insurers’ costs for catastrophic medical claims. That means basic medical care would be paid by the insurance companies, but when your mom has a stroke and racks up $1 million in medical bills, private insurers would be on the hook only for a portion of that.
Sadly, the governor’s office has bungled the press and politics on this so badly that its future remains very much in doubt. […]
85 percent — Democrats, Republicans and Independents — said health care reform is the most important issue facing legislators in this never-ending session.
The pollster’s executive summary is below…
* Rising health care costs are now the top economic concern in Illinois. The
issue of rising health care costs (33%) trumps rising gas prices (17%), higher taxes (16%), and a secure retirement (10%). Rising health care costs are the biggest concern for Democrats (36%), Republicans (27%), and Independents (37%).
* Illinois voters rate health care reform as the most important issue facing the legislature during the extended session. Health care reform is rated as an important issue during the extended session by 85% of voters (48% Extremely important) – more than the 80% who rate Education as important (40% very important). Again, this extends across party lines.
* Voters support the Illinois Covered proposal by a margin better than 3-to-1. Illinois Covered is one of the most strongly supported plans we have ever tested, with 79% of voters initially in favor (52% strongly in favor) and only 13% opposed (6% strongly). This support holds even after batteries of supportive messages about benefits of the plan (such as decreased emergency room costs and future savings reaped from investments now) and opposition attacks (such as multi-billion dollar tax increases and an increase in illegal immigration). After messaging 75% support and 17% oppose.
* Voters in every region of the state support this reform. Support is strong in Northern Illinois (80%), Central Illinois (73%), Southern Illinois (72%), and especially strong in Chicago (88%) and suburban Cook County (84%).
* Illinois voters want their legislators not just to support, but to lead the fight for this reform. Fifty-five percent of voters say they would be more likely to re-elect their legislator (32% much more likely) if he or she supported Illinois Covered. Again, this holds in all regions, with voters in every region of the state more likely to re-elect their legislator by better than a 3-to-1 margin. The numbers look even better for legislators who take a leading role in advocating for Illinois Covered. Fifty-seven percent of voters would be more likely to re-elect their legislator (35% much more likely) if he or she led the fight for Illinois Covered.
The survey was conducted among 600 likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois, June 24-28, 2007. The margin of error is +/- 4.0%. The Celinda Lake poll was commissioned by America’s Agenda Health Care Fund, AARP, AFL-CIO, and the Campaign for Better Health Care. I hope to have more detailed results for subscribers later today.
* More…
* Mandated state health care: Pro vs. Con
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Morning Shorts
Wednesday, Jul 18, 2007 - Posted by Paul Richardson
* Editorial: One Blagojevich is enough
It would be unfair to accuse Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias of contracting an early-onset case of the disease that ails Blagojevich: government by public relations. Unfair, but tempting. In his first half-year, Giannoulias has made some smart moves, such as improving the state’s college savings plans. But his unveiling this week of a program that makes Illinois taxpayers subsidize the purchase of hybrid vehicles that already are popular strikes us as a classic case of nanny-statism, political opportunism, or both.
* Illinois plans to underwrite $1,000 on hybrid cars
* Alderman: Congestion fee DOA
* CTA Tattler: Huberman on other top transit systems
* Chicago Public Radio: Millions in taxes could cover school budget
* Carol Marin: Hard to trust Daley ‘reform’
* Daley: Midway needs fixing up before being put on the market
If Mayor Daley is so determined to privatize Midway Airport, why is he spending nearly $284 million this year to fix it up?
That was the question Tuesday after the mayor unveiled a $2 billion capital-improvement program for 2007 with a host of Midway projects.
* IL House OKs incentives to land FutureGen coal project; more here
* Legislators blast waiver for BP plant near lake; more here
* State law makes inquests optional in routine cases
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