* I wanted to give my subscribers a bit of time to digest a new poll from the Glengariff Group before sharing it here. Crosstabs are for subscribers only, but here are the toplines and a bit of analysis from the pollster…
• By a margin of 26.2%-65.0% Illinois voters believe the state is on the wrong track. This is an increase of 13% “wrong track” from our May 2007 voter survey.
• Governor Rod Blagojevich’s support has plummeted falling from 50.6% approving of his performance in May 2007 to only 31.5% who approve of his performance today. 61.2% of Illinois voters disapprove of the job Governor Blagojevich is doing. 42% of Illinois voters STRONGLY DISAPPROVE of Governor Blagojevich’s job performance.
• Governor Blagojevich’s job performance has three particularly severe hits:
- Chicago Voters –support has fallen from 75% approval in May to 44% approval in November.
- African American Voters – support has fallen from 81% approval in May to 38% approval in November.
- Democratic Voters – support has fallen from 71% approval in May to 42% approval in November.
• By a margin of 65%-25% Illinois voters support a Constitutional amendment allowing recalls of elected officials. This number represents a 7.5% point increase from May 2007 when the support level was 57.5%-25.0%. Support has increased in every region of the state with the greatest increases occurring in West/Northwest, Central and Southern Illinois among Independents and Republicans.
• By a margin of 52%-37% Illinois would vote to recall Governor Rod Blagojevich if they had the opportunity.
• Governor Blagojevich would be recalled in every region of the state including Cook County and the City of Chicago. Even Democrats support a recall of Governor Blagojevich.
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a 600 sample, random digit dial survey of registered Illinois voters. The live operator, telephone survey was conducted from November 1-3, 2007 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.0% with a confidence level of 95%. Respondents were stratified by region of the state, gender, ethnicity, and age. No questions in this survey were commissioned by any candidate, organization or company other than the Glengariff Group, Inc.
* Meanwhile, Illinois Issues has a new story out that, while including some quotes from the other side, obviously leans in favor of the idea that Illinois voters won’t support a Constitutional Convention next year…
Many observers question whether the political climate is suitable for conceiving a new constitution. [..]
The question will be put to voters a year from now, on November 4, 2008. But in order for a new convention to be called, the referendum must win support from either 60 percent of those voting on the question or a majority of all voters. “Those are tough,” says political scientist Kent Redfield. “You’re going to have ballot drop-off at the bottom. People are just going to skip the proposition.”
In fact, more voters — 1,069,939 — ignored the question 19 years ago than those who endorsed the call for a new convention — 900,109. Redfield, a professor of political studies at the University of Illinois at Springfield, says the pooling of dissatisfaction among close observers of state government could buoy support for a new convention. But those political junkies would need to get the remaining electorate hooked on the idea.
It already may be too late. An organized coalition would need 18 months and at least $12 million to wage a PR campaign capable of mustering voter support for a new Con-Con, say Ann Lousin, a research assistant to the 1969-70 convention, and veteran U of I political science professors Sam Gove and James Nowlan. They made that assessment to the Union League Club of Chicago in May. The trio also suggested a crisis in state government, be it a financial meltdown or a major scandal breaking just before next November, might raise enough public ire to swing a successful convention call. […]
“I think you’re going to have organized opposition to Con-Con. The political parties, the politicians, they know how to win with the status quo.” [said Redfield]
Maybe so, but if things don’t start changing soon around here, I can easily see how voters would approve a convention with the idea of tossing the bums out and changing the way business is done.