Monday afternoon flood watch
Monday, Jun 16, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Not good…
The American Red Cross said on Monday that its Disaster Relief Fund is wiped out and it’s being forced to borrow money to help flood victims throughout the Midwest.
Jeff Towers, the organization’s chief development officer, said the balance for domestic disaster relief efforts is zero. He said the American Red Cross would borrow to keep workers and volunteers in the field helping flood victims.
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* From a press release…
Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich today added Jersey and Winnebago counties to a state disaster declaration to help those areas respond to and recover from recent severe storms and the threat of flooding. Since Wednesday, the Governor has declared 17 counties state disaster areas. The Governor today also activated an additional 200 Illinois National Guard members to be deployed to Quincy by tomorrow, bringing the total to 700 members.
* More…
The Soldiers and Airmen are expected to fill 500,000 sandbags today as they help fortify levees along a 15-mile stretch on their side of the swollen Mississippi near Quincy, according to the Associated Press.
* And then there’s this…
Amtrak is suspending service between Chicago and destinations to the north and west because of flooding across the Midwest.
Amtrak is in a bit of a mess right now…
Amtrak is temporarily canceling some trains along its St. Louis-to-Chicago corridor and modifying the schedule of others to accommodate track repairs in Central Illinois.
* More…
About 100 miles up the Mississippi from Quincy, some levees have already ruptured and water is as much as 5 feet deep. The National Weather Service expects the river to crest there Tuesday, about 11 feet over flood stage.
About 100 miles downriver, evacuations are under way in Grafton, Illinois.
* Wow…
The worst flooding in the U.S. Midwest in 15 years sent fresh shocks to global markets and consumers as corn prices hit record highs on fears of crop losses in the heart of the world’s top grain exporter.
The price of corn at the Chicago Board of Trade soared above $8 a bushel for the first time as relentless rains and overflowing rivers raised fears that Midwest farmers will not be able to grow much of anything on as many as 5 million acres
* But…
While corn prices have moved sharply higher as production expectations were scaled back, it is still not clear how much rationing will be required during the 2008-09 marketing year, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist. […]
Good added that a fair amount of crop loss and demand rationing are already priced into the corn market with December 2008 futures approaching $8.
“The worst of the crop stress may have passed and more favorable growing conditions are forecast,” he said. “Corn prices may now moderate somewhat, at least until more is known about crop size.”
* Related…
* Floods affected about 500 Machesney Park residents
* Governor directs state agency directors to allow employees who are disaster relief volunteers to participate in flood efforts
* Chain O’ Lakes closed following weekend storm, flooding - 10-acre bog breaks free, blocking channel
* Illinois works to keep bridge to Keokuk open
* No chance of crossing over dam
* AG Madigan: Watch out for ’storm chasers’
* Severe storms force Illinois troops to evacuate Arkansas training site: Eight Illinois National Guard soldiers were injured Sunday night when a severe thunderstorm caused a tent to collapse at a forward operating base at Fort Chaffee, Ark.
- wordslinger - Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 4:45 pm:
We better hope that corn price moderates. If food prices track corn, we’re in deep stink. Coupled with gas prices, a lot of discretionary consumer income that powers our economy is getting gobbled up in front of our eyes.
- Gene Parmesan - Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 4:58 pm:
The actual price of corn has very little impact on the price of food. Oil prices play a much larger role.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 5:03 pm:
Corn prices have a bigtime impact on livestock producers, however.
- wordslinger - Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 5:04 pm:
Feed, sweeteners, starch, corn’s a big part of the American food chain. It’s more than doubled in a year. No impact on food prices?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 5:08 pm:
wordslinger, what I think he meant was if you look at the price of a box of corn cereal, the actual price of the corn in that box is relatively miniscule.
corn prices will impact livestock and ethanol producers in a very big way, however. but, end users have a very tight control over the market when those contracts come due. in the past, like in 1988, they’ve backed away from buying up those contracts and prices plunged. we’ll see what happens this time.
speculating traders, as a rule, don’t want to take delivery of a hundred thousand bushels of corn, so they have to eventually dump their contracts.
at the end of the trading period, the only people buying are those who will actually take delivery, so they can swing a market in a huge way.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 5:11 pm:
…adding a bit… if the end users decide there is potential for shortages, they’ll buy. if they think the price is overblown, they’ll sit on their hands until the speculating traders panic and sell at whatever price they can get.
this is why i think that oil/gasoline prices are so out of whack. end users are buying up contracts at outrageous prices when no serious shortage exists.
- Gene Parmesan - Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 5:35 pm:
Couldn’t have said it better Rich, thanks for the assist.
- trafficmatt - Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 9:33 pm:
This really accentuates the folly of basing a portion of our energy policy on ethanol. By its very nature, crop production fluctuates. I know there are a lot of people that are basing their income off ethanol, but we need to stop it now before there are others that are so inclined.
- Fan of the Game - Tuesday, Jun 17, 08 @ 10:44 am:
===…adding a bit… if the end users decide there is potential for shortages, they’ll buy. if they think the price is overblown, they’ll sit on their hands until the speculating traders panic and sell at whatever price they can get.===
That’s the way Billy Ray Valentine described it in Trading Places: “Okay, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning, which means that everybody is waiting for it to hit rock bottom, so they can buy low. Which means that the people who own the pork belly contracts are saying, “Hey, we’re losing all our …money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain’t gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip!… So they’re panicking right now, they’re screaming “SELL! SELL!” to get out before the price keeps dropping. They’re panicking out there right now, I can feel it.”