Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Kirk poll shows incumbent maintaining big lead; Plus, DCCC goes on the attack
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Kirk poll shows incumbent maintaining big lead; Plus, DCCC goes on the attack

Monday, Sep 15, 2008

* Mark Kirk’s campaign is floating some new poll results. Keep in mind that this has a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent. From the executive summary

In a September 10-11 poll by McLaughlin & Associates, Rep. Kirk maintains a 22-point lead (51/29) in a rematch against Dan Seals. In IL-10, Senator Obama’s favorability rating has dropped from 67/26 in June to 59/32 in September. Kirk continues to be more popular than Obama with a fav/unfav rating of 63/20 while Dan Seals struggles at 40/22. A number of key Democratic-leaning groups endorsed Kirk including Planned Parenthood, the National Education Association, the National Wildlife Federation and the Human Rights Campaign. […]

Additionally, with the conviction of Tony Rezko and a possible indictment of Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich looming, Seals must fight a strong local anti-Democratic headwind with Blagojevich’s fav/unfav sinking to a record low of 13/68.

If you’re above 50, you’re in decent shape. 51 isn’t completely safe, however. Negative attacks are flying (see below).

Also, I’m not convinced yet that Rod Blagojevich brings down Democrats all that much because RRB is not seen as a “normal” Democrat. He fights with his party so much and is so, well, bizarre at times that other Dems may not pay the price, along the lines of how Republicans didn’t really suffer from Alan Keyes’ presence in 2004. I could be wrong, but that’s my take so far. Argue this in comments and I’ll make sure to listen.

* And this is from the polling memo

Since our last poll three months ago, Dan Seals gained no ground on popular incumbent Mark Kirk in the general election for US Congress in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District, still trailing by a daunting 22 points. Kirk’s favorability rating (63%) is still very strong. Independent and Ticket Splitters who vote for the person not the party are in control of the race. The majority of voters in the district are very thoughtful and independent and demonstrate that by supporting both Senator Barack Obama and Congressman Mark Kirk.

* Head to head results

Congressional Ballot: If the election for US Congress were held today and the candidates were Mark Kirk, the Republican candidate, and Dan Seals, the Democrat candidate, for whom would you vote?

Mark Kirk 51%
Dan Seals 29%
Undecided 21%

Congressional Ballot Among “Ticket-Splitters”

Mark Kirk 56%
Dan Seals 9%
Undecided 35%

* More

* Methodology…

This Illinois 10th Congressional District survey was conducted among 300 likely general election voters between September 10 and 11, 2008. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a statewide general election. This survey of 300 likely voters has an accuracy of +/- 5.6% at a 95% confidence interval.

* Meanwhile, as mentioned above, the DCCC has released an ad blasting “rubber stamp Congressman” Mark Kirk…


- Posted by Rich Miller        

21 Comments
  1. - Team America - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 12:55 pm:

    Most folks here know where I’m coming from, so I won’t waste a lot of space crowing about this latest poll, but I will point out that Kirk’s numbers have kept steady or even gotten better after months of steady, if uninspired, campaigning by Seals.

    The last significant earned media Seals got was his gas stunt, which most people agree was a flop, if not worse. Meanwhile, Kirk seems to make news on a weekly basis, even getting a mention in the Wall Street Journal. Seals, on the other hand, seems to have given up the media war and is willing to bet on the DCCC coming in to fund negative ads, like the “rubber stamp” ad–but DCCC will have to do a lot better than generic “Kirk=Bush” stuff to have a chance in the 10th.

    Kirk’s stellar favorables are there for a reason–most voters in the 10th know and like Kirk–and truly believe that he’s a independent thinker. What’s more, they like what he thinks, by and large.

    If Seals’ big strategy is to use out-of-district money to push down Kirk’s favorables, Kirk has a lot of ground to give way, and Seals doesn’t seem to have a plan to sell himself, which he’ll have to do in order to have a shot. The luster of Obama has tarnished enough lately that riding the anointed one’s coattails doesn’t seem to be much of a plan anymore, either.


  2. - George H.W. Bush - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:00 pm:

    35%R, 34%D, 30%I is the sample in the 10th district? You must be joking.


  3. - George H.W. Bush - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:06 pm:

    And 85% of the sample is over age 40? LOL


  4. - ben - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:12 pm:

    At this point in 2006, Kirk released similar numbers. It wasn’t until October or so that we saw independent polling that put Seals within two points of Kirk. The voters that will decide this election–those out in the western part of the district and those in Waukegan and North Chicago–haven’t made up their minds yet, but once they do I predict they will break for Dan. I haven’t met a single person who hasn’t met Dan and not been wowed by him.

    (Full disclosure: I interned for Seals, but my last statement remains true; virtually every undecided or Kirk Democrat that I know of who has met Dan has come away with a positive impression of him. And Dan’s own polling from last cycle at this time showed him with a ten-point lead among people who knew of both candidates.)


  5. - Crockett - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:18 pm:

    Amazing amount of Seals mailers coming to my house. 5 different ones just last week.


  6. - Shore - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:19 pm:

    A lot of McClaughlin’s Congressional clients had similar numbers in 2006 after labor day and they are now no longer in Congress.

    http://www.pollster.com/polls/il/06-il-10.php

    I also wonder what the Palin effect will be given that it’s not a district where a pro-life evangelical will play well.


  7. - Team America - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:22 pm:

    Ben- admittedly I’m biased towards Kirk as much as you probably are towards Seals, but riddle me this- what happened to all those folks you mention who apparently voted for Seals the last time and got Seals within 6 or 7 points? Did they move? Did they give up on Seals and now he must reach “new” undecideds? Or if they voted for Seals before, are they still unsure if they will support him again and are polling as “undecided”? At best, that doesn’t indicate a solid base for Danno.

    Starting 20 points behind in Sep. 2008 doesn’t equate to 20 points behind in Sep. 2006. Seals is not quite the unknown quantity he was 2 years ago, and if he can’t even keep his numbers up from where he started in Nov 2006 (especially given the awful climate for the GOP back then–and which I would argue is largely looking up now), where are all these mystery voters you refer to going to come from???


  8. - AnonPol - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:28 pm:

    I agree with TA. Seals has collapsed. If a candidate has ran a non stop campaign since last election where he came within a whisker of beating Kirk to only see his numbers FALL back to a worse point today than they were last cycle at this time I would say the guy peaked back in 2006. All those ad dollars wasted and nothing to show for it at best. The 10th is a quirky district indeed and the name of the game there is INDEPENDENT. D’s and R’s don’t mean a lot to the people inside the district even though people keep talking about how the district leans D. It probably does lean D but not to a game changing degree for a good solid moderate R like Kirk.


  9. - Go Green - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:32 pm:

    Well Ben, I’ve met Dan Seals, and he strikes me as completely typical.

    I predict that he will lose by a larger margin than he did in 2006 because he continues, like most Democrats, not to stand for anything.

    By successfully denying ballot access for Green Party candidate and veteran Dave Kalbfleisch, Seals has insured that he will have nobody to blame when he loses.

    Hopefully the 2010 Dem candidate won’t be another carpetbagger.


  10. - VanillaMan - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:55 pm:

    The poll sounds too high, but as expected, it shows Kirk winning easily, and that sounds about right.

    Sorry Seals, but being an also-ran just isn’t good enough for most voters. You have a launching pad, but you needed new fuel in that rocket to get anyone excited over you again. You seem to be “the other guy”, not an alternative.


  11. - 10th Indy - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 2:42 pm:

    RBB alone may not bring down dems but the Blago/Jones/Madigan/Dem-Controlled-Statehouse fiasco could hurt a lot - especially among 10th District voters who see a one-party monopoly as playing a significant role in a broken Springfield. It could help shorten Obama coat tails here and give ticket-splitters another reason to break Obama/Kirk.


  12. - Steve - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 2:43 pm:

    It’s difficult to believe those numbers,but heck I don’t claim to be an expert on that race.But,Dan Seals is certainly working hard and getting his campaign signs out in the district.He’s got a big,big presence on the Northshore.


  13. - PhilCollins - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 2:52 pm:

    Since the margin of error is 5.6%, Kirk’s support could be only 45.4%. Kirk’s supporters shouldn’t be very confident, yet. I hope that all anti-Seals voters will walk many precincts and ensure that Seals loses.


  14. - Team America - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 2:59 pm:

    Didn’t take long to come up with a response ad to directly counter the DCCC.

    http://www.kirkforcongress.com/

    Given Kirk’s huge amount of funds on hand, and assuming DCCC’s bankrolling of Seals continues, we can probably expect this tennis match of ads to continue until Nov.


  15. - Team America - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 3:05 pm:

    Wow. Try this link for a different response (seems like it’s more of an Internet-only type of thing) for a point-by-point rebuttal to the DCCC-Seals “rubber stamp” ad.

    http://kirkforcongress.com/?q=contentview&c=42562

    That’s gotta be some kind of record for response time. Anyone who thought Kirk would be caught sleeping this time around is sorely mistaken.


  16. - State O Main - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 3:54 pm:

    Seals needs to give the voters a reason to vote against Kirk. To this point he hasn’t.

    I would suggest introducing the wimp factor ala the original George Bush. Too wimpy to vote against the war, to wimpy to go against big oil ect. Whether true or not he comes across kinda wimpy and voters need a reason to oust an incumbant. Probably too late, but he needs to brand the guy otherwise-by by.


  17. - babs - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 5:27 pm:

    Kirk has been on tv forever, Seals nowhere. If he wasn’t showing up with high numbers, there would be heads rolling. The question is how deep the support is and whether it can as easily be influenced away from him.


  18. - P. - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 7:25 pm:

    Kirk is totally beatable and his poll shows it… Let’s see if the Seals crew gets the job done.


  19. - Anonymous - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 8:02 pm:

    Kirk is well-liked. I’m under the impression that Seals’ base consists primarily of die-hard idealists, and he’s got just about everyone he’s going to hang on to. Reminds me of Ron Paul.


  20. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 16, 08 @ 10:13 am:

    Seals is nothing like Ron Paul. Seals is a mouth piece. Ron Paul actually stands for something and backs it up with his actions.


  21. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 16, 08 @ 9:10 pm:

    Sorry, Anonymous 10:13. I wasn’t clear in my last post. I wasn’t comparing Seals to Paul. I was citing an example of where I think the numbers are.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Open thread 2
* Open thread
* DHS slammed after care disrupted for "thousands" of mentally ill
* Mendoza wants emergency Deloitte contract review
* The plot thickens on Rauner's AV
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Important update and a supplement to today’s edition
* Frerichs: Don't use new federal rules on 529 programs for state taxes
* "Watchdog" flatly denies getting money from Illinois Policy Institute, but group funded 98 percent of budget
* Governor promised "superstar" appointee a year ago, hasn't delivered
* Chicago survives the first cut in Amazon HQ2 sweepstakes
* Rauner to air entire Blagojevich/Pritzker audio this weekend
* Adlai III endorses Biss
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Illinois education officials want to double sta.....
* Illinois education officials want to double sta.....
* Illinois education officials want to double sta.....
* Illinois education officials want to double sta.....


* Court in Chicago to hear arguments on sanctuary cities
* 30-year sentence for man in sexual assault of elderly woman
* Champaign man pleads guilty in '85 murder case
* Champaign man pleads guilty in '85 murder case
* 80-year-old accused of bank robbery has decades-old record
* Officer's lawyers plan change of venue poll in McDonald case
* Illinois man pleads guilty in 1985 death of 15-year-old girl
* Indiana State Police join 4-state human trafficking campaign
* Citing police torture, judge orders convicted murderer freed
* Indiana officials say they won't go overboard to woo Amazon

* U of I trustees approve 4th-straight tuition freeze
* Rauner to air extended ad of Pritzker, Blagojevich on wiretap
* Mendoza to keynote Women's March Saturday in Springfield
* Chicago mayor vows to step up Amazon second headquarters bid
* Under the Dome Podcast: More Blago-Pritzker talk, Rauner confirms Duke is racist
* U of I withdrew 35 job offers after background checks
* Frerichs: Can't get tax break for using college savings plan on private K-12 tuition
* Illinois governor to air extended ad of rival, Blagojevich on wiretap
* Chicago a finalist for Amazon's second headquarters
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $26M in last 3 months

* United to offer upgraded economy section on some global flights
* What Chicago is up against in Amazon HQ2 race
* Emanuel, Rauner clash in wake of Amazon news
* Data center company sues Aurora over telecom tower


* 18-year-old woman shot in Englewood
* Police: Burglars stealing electronics from Roseland, West Pullman homes
* Drone rescue off Australian beach heralded as world-first
* Dear Abby: Does former farm kid have to be lonely?
* LeBron James, Stephen Curry are captains, will draft NBA All-Star Game teams
* Woman, 30, shot during argument in West Garfield Park
* Horoscope for Jan. 19, 2018
* Police: Burglars stole cash registers from Far South Side businesses
* LA Times CEO under investigation after report of sexual impropriety
* Police warn of North Side robberies


* 8 wounded in city shootings
* Pope shocks Chile by accusing sex abuse victims of slander against bishop
* Government shutdown looms despite House action, short-lived Senate discussion
* Los Angeles Times publisher under investigation by parent company over alleged misconduct
* 'I just don't like Muslim people': Trump appointee resigns after racist, sexist and anti-gay remarks
* 'I'm sickened': Parents scrambling after word of Catholic school closings
* Bears offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich sees Mitch Trubisky as coachable, accurate
* Wisconsin's Walker proposes work, photo ID requirements in welfare overhaul plan
* Amazon HQ2 contenders include Chicago; Rauner, Emanuel react by trading jabs
* Chicago's competition: A look at the 20 bids for Amazon's HQ2


» Sheriff Offers To Help Review Police Shootings In Suburban Cook County
» A Prescription For Fruits And Veggies: One Solution To Food Insecurity in Illinois
» A Call For Transparency
» 2 Illinois Governor Candidates Spend $26M In Last 3 Months
» State Board of Education: Double School Funding Now
» Lawmakers Demand Fast Internet For Rural Schools
» 2 Dreamers Discuss Helping Other Immigrants Amid Uncertainty
» Rauner Spokesman: 'Governor Believes David Duke Is A Racist'
» Rauner Signs Law To Help Women Behind Bars
» A Poor Neighborhood In Chicago Looks To Cuba To Fight Infant Mortality


* Point: Trump's stance gives hope to an Iranian majority that longs for freedom
* Counterpoint: Trump's assertive policies rally Iranian support for the Ayatollahs
* Thumbs Up: To investing in infrastructure
* Eugene Robinson: An administration with no credibility cannot lead
* U of I trustees approve 4th-straight tuition freeze
* Rauner to air extended ad of Pritzker, Blagojevich on wiretap
* Mendoza to keynote Women's March Saturday in Springfield
* Chicago mayor vows to step up Amazon second headquarters bid
* Under the Dome Podcast: More Blago-Pritzker talk, Rauner confirms Duke is racist
* U of I withdrew 35 job offers after background checks


* New device at St. Elizabeth's helps monitor heart failure symptoms
* St. Elizabeth's new pacemaker is one-tenth the size of a normal one
* PHOTOS: Power up: Johns Hill, Dennis robotics teams gear up for state
* Tim Cooksey
* Shirley Roberta Koenig
* Ines M. Powers
* Jerrel Clay 'Jerry' Mulvey
* Joyce E. Wilson
* Margaret Maxine Stone
* Allen E. Moore


* Buffalo Grove HS orchestra to perform piece written to honor 3 teachers
* Sizzling Avs win 8th straight by holding off Sharks 5-3
* Blues score 3 times in second period, top Senators 4-1
* Smith's shootout goal leads Predators over Coyotes 3-2
* Couturier's goal lifts Flyers over Leafs on Lindros' night

* Our view: End patronage at Algonquin Towns...
* Letters to the editor: Election commission...
* Hultgren makes strong mark on nation's new...
* Dissident artist Ai Weiwei and US Rep. Ran...
* Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and...
* This RSS feed URL is deprecated
* Congressman Randy Hultgren Disagrees with ...
* Bipartisan Illinois criticism follows Trum...
* Letter: Talk to tax preparer about GOP tax...
* House Financial Services panel approves bi...

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Congress likely racing toward a government......

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Trump accuses Russian Federation of assist......
* Trump accuses Putin of helping N. Korea ev......

* Chicago makes 1st Amazon.com cut, but does that mean one makes the team
* Swedish trumpeter Goran Kajfes combines psych, prog, and African music into a vision all his own
* Anita Alvarez’s campaign consultants gave her talking points before she announced charges against Jason Van Dyke, and other Chicago news
* Gov rejects handing more powers over to McHenry County Bd Chairman
* Rauner calls for bill to ban Madigan from appealing property taxes
* New IR Poll: Who will win Illinois' 2018 Democrat Party gubernatorial primary?
* Thorner: Chicago celebrates life in single digit temps
* Illinois Review poll draws attention as Ives supporters outnumber Rauner's
* Thorner/O'Neil: Social Engineering: Transferring Parental Control of Children to Teachers
* Former Rauner staffer seeks public access to First Lady's emails about abortion bill


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Affordable LG X4+ goes official with rugged design, Hi-Fi DAC, LG Pay support
* Why do Sony Xperia phones still exist? “The next paradigm shift.”
* Bitcoin may help TSMC’s bottom line as premium smartphones take a toll
* Bring Your Own iPhone to Xfinity Mobile now, more phones soon
* ZTE gets an Android 8.1 phone certified by the Wi-Fi Alliance
* Samsung patents fix “The Notch,” iPhone performance boost & more – Pocketnow Daily
* So far, Fuchsia OS looks good on a Pixelbook

* Inbox: Who replaces Rodon in the rotation?
* 2018 South Side Sox Hall of Fame Ballot
* With maturity comes lofty expectations for Eloy
* Collins ranked MLB's No. 9 catching prospect
* With maturity comes lofty expectations for Eloy
* Pirates rebuild not met with enthusiasm
* Moncada guiding Robert during mini-camp


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller