Blowout or overblown? *** UPDATED x1 ***
Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post thinks GOP freshman Congresscritter Peter Roskam is one of a new batch of Republicans “in real races” because the bottom has dropped out on the Republicans.
If Roskam really is in trouble, then we’re in for a landslide of epic proportions - like 1932 or 1936. In which case, there’s nothing much that Republicans can do except pray.
* Progress Illinois has funded a new poll in a different, much more pro-Obama district, and found the Republican incumbent is leading…
Dan Seals (D): 41%
Mark Kirk (R): 47%
Undecided: 12%
More…
In the middle of last week, the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington conducted the above survey for Progress Illinois in the 10th Congressional District. The results are very similar to the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted two weeks earlier, which also found Democratic challenger Dan Seals down by six points (44-38%).
A few toplines…
Presidential results…
Barack Obama (D): 56%
John McCain (R): 35%
Undecided: 9%
400 likely voters, conducted from October 15-16, 2008, MoE plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
*** UPDATE *** PI has a new poll in the 11th Congressional District, which for whatever reason didn’t include the Green Party candidate…
Debbie Halvorson (D): 50%
Martin Ozinga (R): 29%
Undecided: 22%
More…
The 11th Congressional District poll conducted for Progress Illinois by the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington found a 21-point lead for Democrat Debbie Halvorson, similar to the 19-point gap in the internal poll she released on Friday (which included Green Party candidate Jason Wallace).
Republican Marty Ozinga ’s unfavorables (30%) continue to outweigh his favorables (20%), which certainly spells trouble. Independents made up 42 percent of the polling universe in our poll and they also appear extremely wary of Ozinga, with only 14 percent saying they support him and 41 percent still on the fence.
Some toplines…
Presidential…
Barack Obama (D): 49%
John McCain (R): 38%
Undecided: 13%
45% said “The economy and jobs” was the most important problem.
* More congressional stuff…
* NEW: Joliet Herald News - Halvorson will best represent our interests
* Kirk, Seals spar over Iraq, women’s rights
* Kirk, Seals debate in 10th District race
* Conaty calls Kirk’s drilling claim “a bit disingenous”
* Immigration a Key Issue in Congressional Race
* Oberweis hopes to connect with voters on economy
* Foster running at a frantic pace - at home and in D.C.
* Thousands turn out to vote early in Peoria
* Morgenthaler “Won’t Commit to Moving” to IL6
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 9:52 am:
Overblown.
It isn’t November 4th, and it is silly to hyperventilate over results for elections that haven’t occurred.
I’m not sure why there is such an appeal for journalists to forego their objectivity to play Miss Cleo on any election. Even if they are right, so what? Does anyone remember who called the election correctly four years ago and what did they win? A Red Lobster coupon, or something?
The Democrats have worked this election as a fashion fad like they have in the past. “Everyone loves him!” “Join in the fun!” “All the cool people support him!” “LOOK at THOSE POLLS!” “It’s a landslide!”
Then Election Day actually arrives.
We’ve had two years of this.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 10:00 am:
Seals seems to take 2 steps forward and 1 step back every time he has a critical moment in this campaign. It is an uphill battle and his effort really needs to be mistake free these last 2 weeks-and hammer that Iraq thing.
The victory is there but you are dealing with a very educated and in tune electorate. You don’t need an out of district, militant veteran to tell the folks Kirk screwed up on the war-Dan should just tell them himself.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 10:09 am:
I think things are too fluid right now. The Democratic Party in Congress isn’t exactly popular, either.
The GOP fate is probably tied to the Dow. If it keeps creeping up, the races will tighten up.
Just goes to show you, the pocketbook trumps everything. We’re still fighting two wars, with the one in Afghanistan quite perilous right now, according to our military. They’re not even on the radar.
- GOP'er - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 10:20 am:
I’ve heard Roskam’s radio ads hitting Morgenthaler. Really nasty. This is the 2nd election in a row where the never-wore-the-uniform trial lawyer has viciously attacked a military woman who has served her country honorably.
If this is all Roskam has to offer, I wish he would step aside. If all he can do is make all Republicans look like jackasses, move on and give someone else a chance.
And as far as living outside the district, didn’t Roskam live outside the district the first time he ran? If I’m wrong I’ll stand corrected, but I’m pretty sure that’s true.
- Bill Baar - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 10:22 am:
I’m not sure why there is such an appeal for journalists to forego their objectivity to play Miss Cleo on any election.
It’s an authority thing… Bill Kristol in today’s NYT,
And some number of the public may change their minds in the final two weeks of the campaign, and may decide McCain-Palin offers a better kind of change — perhaps enough to give McCain-Palin a victory.
The media elites really hate that idea. Not just because so many of them prefer Obama. But because they like telling us what’s going to happen. They’re always annoyed when the people cross them up.
- Snidely Whiplash - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 10:23 am:
In one District, the GOP has a bad candidate (Ozinga) who really doesn’t generate an excess of enthusiasm among moderates and independents. So bad, that even Emil Jones’ hatchetwoman is equipped and seemingly poised to take the district for the Dems.
In another, the Dems have put forth an equally bad candidate (Seals) who doesn’t have much substance and really doesn’t know how to run an effective campaign (equal knock on Ozinga). Kirk will keep the District GOP in that one.
I keep saying it, but I’ll say it again: MODERATION is increasingly the key outside of Chicago. True, many long-time GOP districts are becoming ever-less “conservative,” but that doesn’t mean they’ve suddenly gone liberal. Conversely, a “conservative” candidate isn’t going to fare universally well, either. They key to victory for either party’s candidate in these districts is to stay in the middle of the road, and not tow their national parties’ lines, which just don’t play well here.
The sad part is that when you have the worst of two extremes in a race (as in Ozinga-Halvorson), the majority middle goes unrepresented, no matter who wins. The key then becomes personality and campaign savey over substance.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 10:26 am:
Bill Kristol of the NY Times, Fox News and Weekly Standard pontificating on the “media elites?”
You can’t make up stuff like that.
- Phil Collins - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 10:56 am:
I was in the navy for 21 years, including six months near Baghdad, and I’m glad that Rep. Kirk supported my unit’s mission. While I was in Iraq, I rarely heard my co-workers complain about our presence, in Iraq. After I returned to IL, I’ve heard many people, who haven’t served, in the military, complain about it.
- shore - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 11:53 am:
The DCCC promised seals 1.5 million in support. Thus far they’ve spent 400k and haven’t been dumping the 250k ad buys that they have been elsewhere-sign they are doubting him?
Kirk will likely get the tribune’s endorsement this week and that will play well.
McCain in that survey still has 46 approval rating /40 disapproval so the bottom hasn’t completely fallen out.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 11:58 am:
Take a look at the results of one-party control, whether on the national or state arena, and regardless of which party was in control. The results speak for themselves. I don’t really care one way or another who is in control, as long as the margin is thin enough that stuff can’t just be rammed through without a little introspection and debate. With that in mind, I am hoping for “overblown” this year on a national level.
- siriusly - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 12:03 pm:
I’ve spent time in both dist’s recently and I really doubt the accuracy of those polls. Maybe Obama is leading in Roskam’s district, but I still would be surprised to see Roskam lose or even win by less than 5%. Likewise, Kirk’s district is naturally going to be very close regardless of the top of the ticket. The 10th CD will be a 1 point race either way I predict, with Seals pulling it off.
- Carl Nyberg - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 12:40 pm:
GOP’er Roskam ran in IL-13 and lost (1998, IIRC) in the GOP primary before he ran in IL-06 (2006). His state senate district overlaps both IL-13 and IL-06.
My two cents is that the GOP richly deserves to be dragged down by the failures of the Bush-led GOP.
Ron Paul was about the only Republican who offered principled criticism of Bush policies. The rest of them were either bought off or worthless in standing up to the lies and criminality of the Bush administration.
My concern about Obama and the Democrats is that they will not fully document (much less hold accountable) the unethical and illegal conduct by the Republican Party and its allies, like the Wall Street criminals, Halliburton and the other war profiteers.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 1:18 pm:
I can’t believe you are mentioning a Progress Illinois poll. Ozinga may be behind, but relying on a Progress Illinois poll is as silly as relying on a GOPAC poll on this race.
It is utter nonsense and the numbers are laughable.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 1:19 pm:
OH - and one more thing.
Since everyone is already crowning Pelosi, Reid and Obama, their supporters can just stay home November 4th.
They can’t lose - right?
- doubtful - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 1:57 pm:
Since everyone is already crowning Pelosi, Reid and Obama, their supporters can just stay home November 4th. -VanillaMan
And Republicans can vote during the Republican Only Voting Engagement, or ROVE, on November 5th. 7:00 AM, sharp!
Who is crowning who? Obama just said that race was going to tighten up, and that’s been a headline throughout the entire ‘liberal media.’ CNN barely has Obama up in the electoral projections. No one but the strawman you used for your argument is declaring this race over.
From the numbers I’ve seen for early voting, a number of Obama supporters are planning on doing something else on November 4th, though, since they’ve already voted.
- HoBoSkillet - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 2:42 pm:
Snidelywhiplash -
Good points on the Ozinga-Halvorsen race. Your thoughts pretty much sum up why I am voting for Jason Wallace in that race.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 3:02 pm:
==Who is crowning who?==
“100% Barack Obama is going to win!” - US Speaker of the House
‘Nuff said.
- Carl Nyberg - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 3:34 pm:
VanillaMan, did Nancy Pelosi hurt your feelings by saying Obama is sure to win?
I’m sorry. What can I do to make you feel better?
- Bubs - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 4:14 pm:
I think the GOP is going to get its proverbial teeth kicked in on Nov. 4.
But I also think Mark Kirk will squeak by, one of the few bright spots.
I have spoken to more than a few Moderate Republicans, (all now bordering on “independent” in this “Conservatives Only” phase of the party history), and I hear the same refrain - the national GOP leadership is completely out of touch, and McCain is being too negative.
There are a lot of disillusioned Republicans out there, many about to become former Republicans.
- JonShibleyFan - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 4:24 pm:
“I can’t believe you are mentioning a Progress Illinois poll.”
1) It was conducted by a reputable pollster.
2) It mirrors the numbers from a completely different and separate pollster.
If GOPAC released a poll from a reputable GOP pollster, then it would be natural to release and print it.
- doubtful - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 4:29 pm:
Wow, VanillaMan, a leader of the party asserts that they are sure their party’s candidate is going to win. And you think that’s ’nuff said.
When you said ‘everyone was crowing,’ I kinda thought you meant people who, you know, weren’t on the Democratic roster.
What’s next? Are you going to bash Urlacher every time he thinks the Bears are going to win a game? Are Cubs fans to be chastised because they continuously put their faith in the Cubs?
Cue the tiny violins.
- Princess - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 4:58 pm:
To vote today in Peoria Co I had to show ID (everyone did). I knew I would have to as the early voter flier that came in the mail said voters would need to bring photo id. Is this just in Peoria Co or is it now being required statewide or is it up to the counties? To me it’s really no big deal as long as I knew I had to bring it ahead of time, I’m just curious as to how the rest of the state is going with this.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 5:31 pm:
More good news for Kirk. I just read Russ Stewart’s analysis in which he has Seals as the winner by 30K. Anyone who regularly reads ole Russ can attest that you can make a lot of money by betting the other way.
- doubtful - Monday, Oct 20, 08 @ 9:28 pm:
To vote today in Peoria Co I had to show ID (everyone did). -Princess
It’s statewide, for early voting only, and has always been that way since I’ve early voted.