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5th CD roundup *** UPDATED x2 ***

Tuesday, Jan 20, 2009

*** UPDATE 1 *** Fox Chicago has a story up about misleading poll questions in a survey sponsored by Rep. Feigenholtz’s campaign. Both Rep. Fritchey and Commissioner Quigley blast their opponent for the poll. Click here to watch the story.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Quigley responds to the Feigenholtz poll via press release…

“The people of the 5th Congressional district deserve better than this kind of negative, slash-and-burn politics and personal attacks,” Quigley said. […]

“This campaign should be an honest discussion of which candidate has the best record of reform and the ability to bring change to Washington—not a contest to see who can sling the most mud.

[ *** End of Updates *** ]

* We’ll see if any winnowing happens in the coming days as challenges are filed, but the 5th District field is jam-packed, and Ald. O’Connor’s people say that “the sleeping giant” has been awakened

Twenty-six candidates will vie to succeed former U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel, the incoming White House chief of staff, in a March 3 primary in the 5th District.

Among those filing nominating petitions by Monday’s deadline was Ald. Pat O’Connor (40th), Mayor Daley’s unofficial City Council floor leader. O’Connor filed about 5,000 signatures — nearly five times the 927 needed to get on the Democratic ballot — in an apparent show of force designed to combat a slatemaking embarrassment on Jan. 10.

O’Connor went into the slatemaking session saying he was close to wrapping up the Democratic Party’s endorsement, but state Rep. John Fritchey (D-Chicago) got nearly three times as many weighted votes.

“Some people blamed me. They said I wasn’t aggressive enough,” O’Connor said Monday. “It wakes you up. . . . It strengthened my resolve to make sure I was filing a large number of signatures.”

The full list is here.

* Laura Washington thinks recent history shows Rep. Sara Feigenholtz has a great shot at winning the Democratic primary

The “experts” already are calling Feigenholtz, a North Side legislator, a front-runner for the Democratic nomination. The diverse district spans a chunk of Chicago’s North Side and extends into the west suburbs. The 14-year legislator claims a $300,000-and-counting war chest and filed 4,000 signatures on her petition for the March 3 primary.

There are a couple of other women contenders, but right now they don’t have significant skin in the game. So this pundit advises that Feigenholtz remember just two words: Anita Alvarez.

Last year, in her first pitch for public office, the career county prosecutor whipped a crowded field in a heated Democratic primary race for Cook County state’s attorney. She was dismissed as a no-name by the party honchos and dissed by her own boss, who endorsed her office rival, Bob Milan.

Alvarez capitalized on their myopia by promoting a platform of the working mom bound to serve and protect children and families. She donned snazzy red suits, ran a flurry of snappy commercials, and touted her record. She took the nomination and went on to clobber Republican rival Tony Peraica with 78 percent of the vote, becoming the first Hispanic and woman to serve as the county’s chief prosecutor.

* I told you about Mike Quigley’s poll a few days ago, here’s more from the polling summary…

Quigley also maintains a 4-point lead over Feigenholtz when O’Connor is included in a similar vote (Quigley 14% / Feigenholtz 10% / O’Connor 8% / Fritchey 7%). Quigley is better able to translate his popularity into real vote — 40% more than O’Connor is able to do
with the same name identification. Quigley also leads the pack as the most likely “second choice” of voters.

In one-on-one match-ups with other leading candidates… Quigley leads Feigenholtz by 13 points (Quigley 30% / Feigenholtz 17%) and Fritchey by 19 points (Quigley 32% / Fritchey 13%).

…Almost 90% (89%) of voters would be more likely to support a candidate who has led the fight for government reform on the Cook County Board (56% much more likely)… Similarly, a candidate who led the fight against Todd Stroger’s sales tax increase is also extremely appealing (72% total more likely / 43% much more likely).

Forrest Claypool is extremely popular among 5th District Democrats (66% Fav / 9% Unfav), with a favorability ratio of better than 7 to 1. A Claypool endorsement could play a major role in this race, with 56% of primary voters more likely to vote for a candidate with Claypool’s support.

Those high undecideds make this race impossible to call.

* Related…

* IL-5: Internal Poll Shows Quigley With Early Lead

* 26 file for congressional seat vacated by Rahm Emanuel

* Professor aims to challenge Chicago Way

- Posted by Rich Miller        

30 Comments
  1. - Ravenswood Right Winger - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 9:31 am:

    thanks for the list Rich. Gonna be great to watch the fireworks!


  2. - The Doc - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 9:40 am:

    No chance a Daley lapdog sans a Machine endorsement wins this race. O’Connor should be content with zoning changes that benefit his wife’s real estate business.


  3. - Scooby - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 9:41 am:

    At first glance Jon Stewart appears to be the favorite, I mean he’s on TV four nights a week, that’s almost Daily. But a more sophisticated eye will spot Frank Annunzio, who if memory serves correct was the other caddy from Caddyshack, so he’s got that going for him, which is nice.


  4. - Phil Collins - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 9:44 am:

    Jon Stewart will lose votes because he doesn’t live in the district. He lives in Deerfield. The special election will be won by Rosanna Puldio, the founder and director of the Illinois Minuteman Project. Many voters think that their last two congressmen, Rahm Emanuel and Rod Blagojevich, were corrupt and liberal. To show that they support a big change, they’ll elect the only conservative, in the race, Pulido. Please read her website, www.rosannpulido2009.com.


  5. - Scooby - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 9:58 am:

    Now you may be thinking that the caddy from Caddyshack was just a fictional character and that should in no way qualify him to be a Congressman, also the character’s name was Tony and not Frank, also according to the Internet Movie Database his name had a “D” in front of it as in Tony D’Annunzio, and you would be correct on all of these points, but that in no way precludes us from making him a fan favorite. Afterall, Fritchey’s always struck me as the Danny Noonan type, haven’t we reached the point where we’re ready to root for the other guy?

    Annunzio - he knows how far we need to go!


  6. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 10:00 am:

    I’m assuming that Frank Annunzio is related to the former Congressman.


  7. - Niles Township - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 10:06 am:

    Feigenholtz’s fundraising machine seems very well oiled, especially for a reformer type. I have already received the right type of event invites with credible people organizing them.


  8. - Scooby - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 10:08 am:

    No one likes a killjoy wordslinger.

    Annunzio - from tee to green and in between!


  9. - Illinois.Pundit - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 10:14 am:

    Let’s not forget who paid for that poll. No question Quigley probably has highest name ID. However, in a race like this it won’t get you very far without any money for field and media. The real winner in this race, the media. Some very nice 1st quarter political money coming in a very bad economy.


  10. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 12:17 pm:

    Fritchey will be hurt if O’Connor runs his big ego; meaning that Feigenholtz has enough milquetoast voters to win the Primary.

    Nuts.


  11. - Honest Abe - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 12:26 pm:

    It would have been more impressive if O’Connor had been able to file his petitions on the first day of the filing period instead of at the last minute.


  12. - Amy - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 12:30 pm:

    push polling with nasty implications…..not nice, Sara. get ready for the blowback.


  13. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 12:42 pm:

    WOW! Gee Sara, you are hiding from reporters regarding this tacky poll, and you want to run as a reformer?

    You don’t need this to win. You just needed O’Connor to suck votes from Fritchey. You got it, and you do this? Bad move. You have milquetoasters for supporters Sara, you can scare them away with this kind of business.

    If you don’t get this behind you, you will no longer be the front runner.


  14. - Anonymous45 - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 12:50 pm:

    aww…Sara, I couldn’t happen to someone more deserving than you…what goes around comes around…looks like the big dogs in this race will dispose of you post haste…


  15. - Embarrassing - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 1:00 pm:

    Wow, Sara. Your campaign spokesman said the poll could have been any one of 15 candidates’ in the same breath he said it was just message-testing. So which is it? And you’re refusing to respond? I’d be embarrassed too.


  16. - Helm - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 1:38 pm:

    As a recipient of this poll, I can tell you that it was way, way over the top. Perhaps the most disturbing thing is that several times throughout the poll, I asked the pollster whether he was calling on behalf of any candidate or any organization supporting any candidate and was repeatedly told “no.” When I asked for the last time, I was told “not to my knowledge.”

    I think it was called Sun (something) Polling out of Florida and they called it an Illinois Issues Poll. It was obvious that it was a push-poll designed to benefit Sara.


  17. - SweetLou - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 3:46 pm:

    Normally this sort of poll gets forgotten, but with the expected turnout being so low (i’ve heard predictions as low as 30,000) this really could cost her the election. smooth move.


  18. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 3:49 pm:

    ===this really could cost her the election.===

    I dunno. Depends how it’s used against her.


  19. - "low level paper pusher" - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 4:56 pm:

    I agree Rich. I mean, the only person I can remember who took advantage of a negative push poll and used it to good use was Schock when he ran against R. Slone. He did a good newspaper ad about it.

    Otherwise, voters tend to forget this kind of stuff. Opponents say we will get you, etc. but they usually can’t follow through to any great effect.

    As far as O’Connor goes, boy, if the voters want a complete Daley/Rahm unqualified hack to get the seat, they’ll vote for him. I don’t think they will.

    I don’t think Pat understands that the U.S. House of Representatives actually has policy debates and requires some degree of knowledge about national issues. He’d be in completely over his head.


  20. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 5:00 pm:

    ===Schock when he ran against R. Slone. He did a good newspaper ad about it.===

    It also helped that the local media picked up on it. Right now, it’s only Fox Chicago. Print almost never follows TV, so we’ll see if this even goes anywhere.


  21. - Honest Abe - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 5:09 pm:

    O’Connor missed the boat years ago when he challenged Cecil Partee for the position of State’s Attorney. Daley had just gotten started as mayor and tapped Partee as his replacement. O’Connor lost the nomination to Partee and Jack O’Malley won the special election. Two years later, O’Malley cleaned O’Connor’s clock as numerous displeased committeemen sat on their hands.

    In 1990, O’Connor turned down party slating for the Sheriff’s office and chose to challenge Partee. Mike Sheehan got the Sheriff’s job and O’Connor got to spend another eighteen years in the City Council.


  22. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 5:34 pm:

    –I don’t think Pat understands that the U.S. House of Representatives actually has policy debates and requires some degree of knowledge about national issues.–

    If only it were so. There’s 435 of them, you know, and I’m quite sure the majority are former small market weathermen. I hold no candle for O’Connor, but let’s not go nuts here.


  23. - Anon - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 6:28 pm:

    I don’t think being a woman will necessarily help Sara in a race like this. This will be the only thing on the ballot. People aren’t going to blindly vote for the woman candidate if they don’t know who to vote for- they just won’t bother voting.


  24. - josh - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 6:56 pm:

    no one is going to win or lose this election based on a poll…this is a waste of everyone’s time. being a woman, though, will definitely affect the outcome.


  25. - Illinois.Pundit - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 7:12 pm:

    Anon you are partially right. This election will completely be about GOTV. If women and seniors come out to vote (and they usually do) Sara wins. The gravy is she also has GLBT and the Jewish vote. Wordslinger, I’m not one but what do you have against weathermen. Some are pretty bright. I bet Tom Skilling could have done a better job in the White House than W, but so could my little imaginary friend Ralph the mouse. Look, a kitty!


  26. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 7:20 pm:

    ===no one is going to win or lose this election based on a poll===

    Who said they would?


  27. - Miller Schiller - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 7:28 pm:

    Miller, I think you said it could cost her the election based on ‘how someone uses it against her’.

    How exactly does someone use a poll against a candidate? This is a silly little excercise.

    It looks to me like the boys are ganging up to beat up on the only girl in the race. And if Fritchey has a problem with someone talking about his Mob ties, then he shouldn’t have taken money from mob-connected groups.


  28. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 7:38 pm:

    MS, spare me the “boys ganging up on the little girl” crud. Y’all ran the poll, take responsibility for it. So far, all I’m getting from the campaign is a bunch of nothing.

    And the poll becomes an issue because she’s running as if she’s the pristine one. Turns out, she can get in the dirt with the rest of them.

    Quit yer whining. It’s pathetic and doesn’t suit you. On one hand, you run a clearly lie-filled, mean-spirited poll. On the other hand you cry that the boys are picking on you. So sad!

    Also, the “mob connected” group in question has given over a grand to Pat Quinn. The same group gave Fritchey $500 14 years ago. This is truly a stupid allegation on your part, unless Quinn is now suspect.


  29. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 7:40 pm:

    And, yes, it could hurt her based on how it’s used against her, which is possible and which has been done before (see above, moron).


  30. - Brian Frederick - Tuesday, Jan 20, 09 @ 8:04 pm:

    The Fifth District has moved leftward over the past decade. Obama got 73% in the fifth district. See: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4161
    Only 72% in the ninth district. The Democrats are very liberal in this district. Whoever can capture that mantle of liberal reformer will win.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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