* Tribune poll, with December results in parentheses…

Pat Quinn: 44 (49)
Dan Hynes: 40 (23)

No surprise, considering that Quinn’s own tracker had the race as a three-point game…

Among Democrats, Quinn’s better than 2-to-1 lead over Hynes in a Tribune survey six weeks ago has evaporated amid concerns about the unelected incumbent’s ability to handle the job. The poll of 601 likely Democratic voters showed Quinn with 44 percent and Hynes with 40 percent — within the survey’s 4 percentage point error margin. Thirteen percent of the voters were undecided.

A more recent poll taken by Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign has this race at 46-44, sources say.

According to the Trib poll, Quinn’s approval rating is 43 percent, while his disapproval is at 31 - far lower than the 60 percent claimed by a recent Dan Hynes poll. Two-thirds of Dem voters called Quinn’s early release program “wrong.” Trouble…

Mirroring the overall results, 44 percent of black voters in the survey favored Quinn and 40 percent backed Hynes. But only 36 percent of African-American voters said they approved of the job Quinn was doing as governor.

Keep in mind that this poll was taken before the Harold Washington ad went on the air. The trend is not the governor’s friend. And he’s below 50, where no incumbent wants to be.

* On to the Republicans…

* Andy McKenna 19 (12)
* Jim Ryan 18 (26)
* Kirk Dillard 14 (9)
* Bill Brady 9 (10)

More…

McKenna’s ad blitz helped him achieve support from 19 percent of Republican voters compared to 18 percent for Elmhurst’s Ryan and 14 percent for Dillard, of Hinsdale.

Another 9 percent backed state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington, while Hinsdale transparency advocate Adam Andrzejewski had 7 percent and Chicago political pundit Dan Proft had 6 percent. Another 17 percent were undecided in the survey of 592 likely Republican primary voters. […]

McKenna and Ryan are strongest in Chicago and the suburbs, where each has support from more than one in five voters surveyed. Dillard has the backing of 22 percent of downstate voters, but lags in his home base.

Dillard’s name ID went from about half in the last Tribune poll to 81 percent in this one.