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*** UPDATED x5 *** This just in… New numbers
Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller [Updated and bumped up for visibility and importance.] * As of 2:30 pm, Dillard trails Brady by 509 votes…
Hynes is making no headway and is down by 7,430…
Jason Plummer leads Matt Murphy by 4,976…
Miller leads Krishnamoorthi by 6,923…
* UPDATE 1 - 2:44 pm - It appears, but I can’t be totally sure, that the precinct count is done in Cook County and included in those numbers. Dillard isn’t moving up as fast as maybe he thought he would. We still have late absentees and provisionals, however. * UPDATE 2 - 2:49 pm - Clinton County has finished counting its three outstanding precincts. Brady picked up a net 53 votes - a tiny bit more than I expected. St. Clair County is still reporting one precinct not counted. * UPDATE 3 - 3:18 pm - From the Cook County Clerk’s office…
* UPDATE 4 - 3:20pm - From a commenter…
Brady has reportedly told WLS Radio that all votes are in and he won by about Also from comments…
* UPDATE 5 - 3:47pm - The Dillard campaign was hoping to pick up a net of about 100 votes in uncounted Chicago precincts. They fell just a bit shy. Based on my reading of an internal memo, they also apparently didn’t pick up what they thought they would on Cook County absentees. They were saying earlier that they thought they were about 218 votes down, but that’s not happening yet, of course. The more immediate problem for Sen. Dillard right now - and it’s one of perception - is that he claimed this morning that he would be ahead by “sundown” today. Sundown today is at 5:09 pm. That’s an hour and 22 minutes from now. [This thread is now closed. Go here for a fresh one.]
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- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:34 pm:
Matt Murphy ought to feel relieved considering the fact that he doesn’t think the Lt. Gov office should exist.
I’m glad it does on the dem side, though.
- jojo - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:37 pm:
Where are the districts still out in repub guv race?
- Jeff - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:44 pm:
I don’t know, Jojo… Cook County Clerk and Chicago have all reported, and I think the rest of the state was already at 100% reporting as of this morning…
- A Moderate's Moderate - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:46 pm:
looks like quinn is widening his margins
- HappyToaster - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:55 pm:
AP is still showing Cook and St Clair precincts out but both counties are now showing final numbers.
- Anon-Number7 - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:00 pm:
Sounds like Brady is going to pull this out, unless absentees go strongly for Dillard. With the way the wind is blowing, and even though IL is blue, I’d rather have Kirk, Brady and Plummer lead my ticket vs. Alexi, Quinn and Cohen. Neither is perfect, but I give the edge to the GOP.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:04 pm:
===Sounds like Brady is going to pull this out===
Don’t forget late abasentees, provisionals and then a discovery recount. This is a big state, man. 500 votes can be overcome. Just be patient.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:05 pm:
…However, claiming he’d be ahead by “sundown” was probably not a good idea by Dillard.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:07 pm:
The GOP’s future regarding the governor’s race is riding on whoever wins their recount. Dillard has a great chance against Quinn, but Brady has no chance at all.
I’m a Illinois conservative that drinks coffee and knows that there is no way Illinoisans will ever elect Brady. This economy can crash, and Quinn can be indicted for corruption, but Brady still couldn’t win this. Governor of Kentucky? Perhaps - Illinois, NO WAY!
- Anon - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:09 pm:
To be fair Rich, did he state which day that “sundown” would occur on? Maybe he meant next week sometime.
- GOP4EVER - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:09 pm:
If Cook County is done reporting, then where are 73 precincts yet to be reported located? The City?
- Just announced - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:12 pm:
Brady is on WLS and just announced that all the precints had been counted and he had won by 450 votes.
- LT from Springfield - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:12 pm:
Hmmm…in comparison, going in which would have had the greater odds: Brady winning the Governorship in Illinois or Scott Brown winning the Massachussets Senate seat? I am biased though; I like Brady
- train111 - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:14 pm:
The City Board of Elections is now reporting everything no except Chicago ward 4 precinct 37.
From this morning:
Dillard +115
Brady +45
Net for Dillard +70.
That 1 remaining precinct has to be pretty darn large, to overcome Brady’s lead now.
train111
- HappyToaster - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:18 pm:
St Clair only has 199 precincts. Yes I counted. #200 might be a software bucket for early or absentees or whatever.
Likely AP’s precinct count is fuzzy because of stuff like that (or we’re waiting on an AP intern to get back from lunch).
- Just Noticed - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:25 pm:
Suntimes shows 73 precincts remianing for all Statewide races, 72 precincts remaining for all Cook County races. Suburban Cook reports all precincts are in. Based on my calcs that leaves 72 city precincts and 1 downstate.
- train111 - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:33 pm:
Math error on my part. That update for the city should be +39 for Brdy, so Dillard gets a net gain of 76 instead of 70. Sorry, my math error.
train111
- Domer - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:37 pm:
Hynes won’t concede anything until he gets what he wants in back room horse trading. I don’t blame him. This isn’t about the election anymore, this is about using the leverage he has (such as it is) to extract something before he rides off . . .
- anon - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:37 pm:
Wow. When predictions were made, I picked Quinn to squeak by, and Preckwinkle, but I can’t believe Brady pulled it off. Hats off to the guy, he kept working after the 2006 primary loss. Congrats to him and his campaign team.
However, as a dem and a Quinn supporter, I’m thrilled to be facing Brady, but I would have preferred any of the 3:37:27 PM gov candidates over cohen. In the end, this is god for Quinn, which will be good for Illinois.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:53 pm:
“Don’t let the sun go down on me…Although I search myself, it’s always someone else I see; I’d just allow a fragment of your life to wander free…But losing everything is like the sun going down on me.
Elton John meets Kirk Dillard.
- Dillard's Hubris - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:56 pm:
“Sundown”? That’s not like Dillard to make an arrogant, ill-informed comment.
- Its Just Me - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:01 pm:
I hope Brady realizes that he’ll be a horrible General Election candidate. The guy is great and everything, but next to Dan Proft, he is the candidate the Democrats want the most. You can bet that Obama will do a commercial for Quinn if Brady is the Republican nominee, but I wonder if Obama will do that commercial if Dillard is the nominee. Something tells me Obama owes Dillard a favor.
- HappyToaster - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:04 pm:
Too right. The Dillard camp might be able to flip this in a re-count but at what political cost?
- Pat collins - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:08 pm:
So, Kirk d, how are you feeling about that Obama commercial right now? When it’s this close, pretty much anything can make the difference…..
Kirk, what WERE you thinking!
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:11 pm:
“At the end of the day …” “by sun-up …” “by sundown today …”
By the end of this post, Dillard will have another “by the …” waiting in the wings …
For example;
“by the time cheeze melts on the pizza”
“by the time beer is emptied out of Homer Simpson’s Buzz Beer can”
“by the time Daley has to appoint another alderman”
“by the time Obama says he is saddled with a $1.3 dollar debt”
“by the time Ricky Hendon asks ‘have all voted who wiishhh’ ”
“by the time Fox News does another Scott Brown story”
“by the time MSNBC says again the Scott Brown election proves nothing”
“by the time Harold Washington is used in another political tv ad”
“by the time we figure out Who Shot J.R.”
“by the time you hear another Tiger Woods joke”
“by the time we get our NCAA basketball brackets filled out”
By all THAT time ….THEN … and only then … we will have to wait for Dillard’s next deadline.
- Old Shepherd - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:15 pm:
Oswego Willy-
You are mixing-up your fat, balding, middle-aged men references. Buzz Beer is Drew Carey’s Beer. Duff Beer is Homer Simpson’s. As a fat, balding, near middle-aged man, I try to keep up on these things.
- Niles Township - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:16 pm:
So the Hynes staffers are basically saying that we should also wait until every absentee ballot that comes in over the next week and half is counted? 75 or even 750 voted back, sure, but not 7.500. Man up, Dan.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:17 pm:
If that is the case …. then Dillard will have even MORE time, since it will be a long time before Homer finishes that Buzz beer …yeah for Dillard!
- zatoichi - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:17 pm:
Winning a state wide by a couple percentage points in low turnout isn’t exactly like feeling the love of the people. It’s still a win, but it also like the voter saying “Guess I might as well pick someone while I am here”.
- Served - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:19 pm:
Just let McKenna pick the winner!
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:20 pm:
Vanilla Man: I’d like to think Brady has no chance against Quinn, but really, is it that impossible to imagine? Agreed that Dillard would be much tougher.
- IrishPirate - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:20 pm:
I voted for Dan Hynes.
In 2004 Dan Hynes lost to a better candidate in the Senate Primary. That man went on to Washington.
In 2010 Dan Hynes lost to a worse candidate. That man sold his soul to Ed Burke and “da machine”.
Danny likely still has a soul. It’s a boring soul, but he still has it. Now I just got off the phone with the Dalai Lama and on his deathbed Danny will receive total consciousness. So he also has that going for him.
Time to concede Dan. You gotta lovely wife and kids and there are worse things than losing an election.
- Third Generation Chicago Native - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:21 pm:
I heard David Orr this morning on WGN radio talking to Gregg Jarret. Orr said that there are many cartridges in Cook County not accounted for, and most likely they were because a machine was not used so they were not turned in and he feels there will be many with no votes on them because of this and this should not change things drastically when these cartridges are turned in.
- anon - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:23 pm:
Channel 7 Chicago just played a post unity breakfast sound bite of Dillard saying that Brady will have a more difficult time beating Quinn than he would. Why would he do that? He’s hurting the eventual republican nominee.
- Third Generation Chicago Native - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:24 pm:
Also Orr said the discovery cost is already covered. Which means a candidate could have 25 voting districts of their choice (as long as it’s in their voting area) reinvestigated.
If they find discrepencies greater than 5% they would have to pursue costs on their own. The fee to file, legally to pursue further, would be, as Orr put it nominal, but the attorney fees are where a candidate would have to weigh the costs, which are usually very high.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:24 pm:
“by the time myopic legislators pick caucus leaders”
- Secret Square - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:31 pm:
Is this a record for closest statewide election ever (or at least since the frontier days)?
- Third Generation Chicago Native - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:36 pm:
VanillaMan,
Brady has an excellent shot against Quinn for those who want a non-Chicagoan Governor, which would get the non-Chicagoans (down state, mid state etc) out to vote.
- Angry Chicagoan - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:38 pm:
The Teabag Tendency (Andrzejewski and Proft) would have no chance against Quinn. Brady is simply a Hyde conservative with a particularly extreme view on abortion and pandering to the base on taxes. It’s a long time ago, but we did elect Ogilvie, even if he did only last a single term after he had his Nixon-goes-to-China moment with the income tax.
- Secret Square - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:39 pm:
Also, as far as anyone knows, have election returns in any Illinois race, at this stage of the game (going on 24 hours after the polls closed) ever been reversed or overturned as the result of a recount? In other words is there any precedent for Dillard to believe he could still win if he went for a recount?
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:40 pm:
On Channel 7, Chuck Goudie says there are “thousands” of uncounted provisional, absentee and military ballots all across the state, about 6,500 in Cook County. David Orr says clerks don’t have to certify their counts with the SOS for three weeks.
- Justice - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:40 pm:
Will be interesting to see what Rich digs up regarding predictions about this race in one of his “Questions of the Day” some time back?
- (618) Democrat - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:42 pm:
It’s time for Hynes to concede. Every hour this goes on it makes him look worse. Quinn vs Brady. I love it.
- Cook County R - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:42 pm:
The 73 precincts left from the city of chicago have ben reported. Does anyone know why the AP has not picked them up?
- Secret Square - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:43 pm:
Thanks Word… guess that means we won’t know who the GOP candidate is, for sure, until close to if not past the OLD primary date in March
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:43 pm:
Yeah. Bill Brady, whose campaign is totally broke and has spent the whole campaign traveling around the State calling the President of the United States a Socialist and talking about how we would direct his AG to sue the federal over over health care reform is going to clean Pat Quinn’s clock. Unreal.
Do we know when the next precincts will come in? The President of the United States called a few hours ago to congratulate the Governor. Will Hynes let this go until tonight’s late news? Or can we be the but of tomorrow night’s late night jokes too?
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:46 pm:
Goudie also said Quinn got $100,000 from Dick Mell.
I doubt there are “thousands” of provisionals all over the state. There are some. There are some absentees waiting to come in, but not a huge amount. I think the estimate in Sangamon County is 25.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:48 pm:
Also, Orr says only 800 provisional ballots are uncounted in Cook. Again, important to Dillard/Brady, but not the other one.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:49 pm:
And, Orr said, all absentee ballots received to date are counted.
There may be lots of mail requests for overseas absentees, but not all of those - not nearly all of those - are mailed back to the clerk.
- Illinois Repub - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:51 pm:
I think it’s time for Dillard to do the right thing. All of the phony polls, half truths, weasel talk, Obama ads, taxes raised, and false expectations generated, finally caught up to him.
You lost Kirk Dillard, and you lost to a very weak, poorly funded candidate. You ran a bad campaign. Few cared who you worked for 15 years ago.
- 4 percent - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:51 pm:
I still see the Chicago website showing 2537 of 2573 precincts counted. Is the info somewhere else?
- Mike Ins - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:52 pm:
Maybe Gordon Lightfoot’s classic could become a Dillard campaign song:
Sundown and ya better take care… if I find you creeping round my back stairs…
- RJO32 - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:53 pm:
There are only 800 provisional ballots left in the state.
99% of the Absentee ballots that have been received are counted.
Quinn picked up another 338 votes on Hynes in the Cook townships. The city will be finished reporting tonight, likely widening the margin for Quinn.
Dan, you gave it a great shot and left it all on the field, but it is starting to look like you are a sore loser.
- scoot - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:54 pm:
I don’t ever recall one state party practically giving the opposing party such opportunity then in Illinois. And the GOP primary voters (if this stands up after a recount etc) elect Bill Brady and Jason Plummer atop the ticket. That is disaster, and Quinn will cruise to a full term as Governor.
I was excited about going into the fall with a good ticket…but now?
- 4 percent - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:55 pm:
Dillard had the real polls. As I recall, all of the esteemed media polls had him at 13. His own high was 23 and he came back after getting hit with millions in advertising. The last Dillard internal poll on Monday night showed a 1/2 of 1 percent difference between Brady and Dillard. Pretty darn accurate. It also exactly predicted the final order.
- Third Generation Chicago Native - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 5:00 pm:
According to Orr this morning on WGN those precincts are missing cartridges, which most likely is from unused machines that the judges did not unpack because of low voter turnout. Once those cartridges are turned in they are usually ZERO votes because of unused. As far as Orr is concerned Chicago won’t change.
- grand old partisan - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 5:02 pm:
Re: whether Brady can win in November - consider the whole ticket(s)…
Kirk/Brady is balanced, both geographically and ideologically. It will be a ticket that energizes Republican turnout in this state like nothing we’ve seen in recent memory.
Alexi/Quinn would make a weak team in any political climate. In a year that will be dominated by ethics and competence more than actual policy positions, it’s pretty close to the worst ticket imaginable for Dems. Enthusiasm and turnout will be low, unless Obama makes multiple stumping visits (which is unlikely).
- Downstater - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 5:02 pm:
I love the prognosticators that are already writing Brady’s eulogy. It’s not like there’s anything going on between now and November that might persuade voters to abandon the leadership that got us to:
A state that is desperately broke.
A former governor’s trial that will dig up ALL dirt on Illinois Democrats
An economy that is closing down factories and job opportunities.
Yup, I just don’t know what Brady is going to run on….
- TaxMeMore - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 5:02 pm:
scoot - “I was excited about going into the fall with a good ticket…but now?”
So start demanding Whitney and any other candidates on the ballot be included in debates. Maybe Rich Whitney can improve on his 11% from last time when they didn’t let him debate. I think he might be able to take Quinn.
- phocion - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 5:04 pm:
@Illinois Republican
===You lost Kirk Dillard, and you lost to a very weak, poorly funded candidate. You ran a bad campaign.====
Nice, Illinois Repub. You, sir/ma’am, are the reasons Republican’s can’t win. Dillard is neck and neck after McKenna spent millions attacking him. After Schillerstrom decided to drop out at the last minute and support Ryan. After splitting the vote with numerous other DuPage Republicans. How much support - even within the Republican party - did the hard right get in this primary? 30%. And how much support will a hard right candidate get against a Democrat among all Illinois voters? Brady will be lucky if he breaks 40%. Dillard was the only hope Republicans had to actually win. Go ahead and attack him - and lose again.
- LT from Springfield - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 5:08 pm:
I’m not sure why all the disregard for Brady. From my perspective, Dillard is left of everyone else running. I forsee their votes (especially Adam’s) going substantially towards Brady in the general.
- George - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 5:15 pm:
I think the worry-warts here are other Springfield folk who know that Brady hasn’t been properly “vetted” by the media, and everything that goes along with that.
I wouldn’t get your hopes up too much for a Brady/Plummer inauguration next January.
- Fed Up - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 5:17 pm:
I really don’t understand why anyone running right now would want the job of governor. Perhaps they should all concede! As to Dillard’s blustering…its a figure of speech ad what else would you expect him to do with the vote so close…throw in the towel like Illinois Repub suggests? Get real! To my way of thinking his blustering is not a problem of perception because all the bluster in the world won’t change the final outcome. He’ll either be able to pull out the votes with uncounted absentee ballots or he won’t. But right now it’s just too close to call and if I were in his shoes I would try to sound as confident as possible as well. Still you have to wonder what the tally would be like if he hadn’t done the Obama commercial.
- Jack - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 5:19 pm:
George, Did Chris Christie lose in New Jersey?
How about Scott Brown? States more liberal than Illinois.