Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » 2010 » February
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
New and conflicting numbers, an important assignment and the DGA congratulates Quinn on his win

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 6:43 pm - The AP is now reporting 100 percent of the precincts counted and Bill Brady is leading Kirk Dillard leading by 406 votes…

Illinois - 11215 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Brady , Bill GOP 155,263 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 154,857 20%

But the Dillard campaign claims their own county-by-county tally is different than the AP’s numbers. With all precincts counted, Dillard’s numbers show that he trails Brady by just 115 votes.

What makes this even more intriguing is that the Dillard campaign has the final tally between the two men quite a bit different than the AP. Here are the Dillard totals with the AP numbers in parentheses…

Brady 154,468 (155,263)
Dillard 154,353 (154,857)

And Dillard’s total GOP gubernatorial vote count is different than the AP’s…

AP 765,371
Dillard 764,994

In a normal race, that wouldn’t mean much, but perceptions are hugely important in a situation like this. Dillard needs to make sure people know he’s much more viable than the AP is saying. Considering technological advances, a recount probably won’t produce much of a vote change. But there just might be enough absentees and provisionals out there to overcome that 115-vote difference.

Did the AP double-count something? Did Dillard undercount something? That’s where you come in.

I think what we need to do is download the Dillard campaign’s numbers [use the right-click function to download that thing]. Then, go to the AP’s county-by-county map, scroll over the counties and see what those totals are compared to Dillard’s. Once we have the discrepancies, we can then then go to the individual county/city clerk websites and see who is right.

Is anybody up for this? Lots of work, but could be fascinating to some of you wonkish types.

* Meanwhile, the AP also has Quinn over Hynes by 8,090…

Illinois - 11215 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 460,376 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 452,286 50%

That’s a lot of votes to overcome, man.

Gov. Quinn is doing a media availability tonight at 6:55 before he appears on Chicago Tonight. So, we’ll track that.

The Democratic Governors Association just weighed in for Pat Quinn and added a bit of gentle, but not-so-subtle pressure on Dan Hynes to concede…

Democratic Governors Association Chair Gov. Jack Markell issued the following statement after the Illinois gubernatorial primary:

“I want to congratulate Governor Pat Quinn on his victory. During a global recession and difficult political conditions, Gov. Quinn has successfully restored confidence in state government, balanced the budget and fought to create good jobs for Illinois’ working families. He’s taken concrete steps to turn the corner on this recession and has the kind of optimistic vision for the future that will build a 21st century economy instead of taking Illinois back to the failed policies that caused this recession.”

“I also want to congratulate Comptroller Dan Hynes on running a strong race. He should be very proud of his time in public service and we all believe he will continue to build on what is already an impressive record.”

DGA Executive Director Nathan Daschle echoed Governor Markell’s confidence that Democrats will hold the Illinois governorship.

“While the Republicans will likely spend the next several weeks talking to judges and lawyers, we look forward to talking to voters,” Daschle said. “Eventually we’ll learn which one of these Springfield insiders with a 20-percent mandate will try to become governor on a record of fiscal irresponsibility and failed economic policies. Given what their court battles are bound to entail, though, this morning’s Unity Breakfast would have been better billed as a Prayer Breakfast.”

“I also commend our colleagues for making that the world’s shortest “unity” breakfast. It must have been uncomfortable with so many candidates brushing elbows at the head table, and I hope they had enough coffee – though I imagine there was plenty of tea to go around.”

* The AP also has Plummer over Murphy by 4,722…

Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Name Party Votes Vote %
Plummer , Jason GOP 237,646 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 232,924 33%

And Miller over Krishnamoorthi by 8,328…

Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11215 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Miller , David Dem 392,000 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 383,672 46%

  166 Comments      


This just in… Sundown arrives and no Dillard lead… Franks on Hynes… Rosen claims Quinn “mandate”… 2 months?

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 5:03 pm - I received the following press release just six minutes before sundown, when Sen. Kirk Dillard had earlier predicted that he would be ahead in the count. He’s still behind, of course…

State Senator Kirk Dillard, Republican candidate for governor, today released the following statement in response to the current status of the Republican gubernatorial race:

“Yesterday was a real testament to the strength and power of our grassroots. Both Senator Brady and I were vastly outspent in this primary, but we are the ones still standing today. The strength of that grassroots support is how Republicans are going to take back the Governor’s seat this November.

But a winner has not been decided yet. Yesterday’s election was really close and the simple fact is that they are still counting the votes. There are hundreds of provisional and absentee ballots left to be counted along with several precincts votes to be reported. We believe every Illinoisan’s voice needs and deserves to be heard. We do not know who won yet and we probably won’t for several more days.

Rumors of a victory are not legitimate when votes are still being counted. I’m confident that when all of the ballots have been counted, I will be the Republican nominee for Governor.”

The “rumors” he’s probably referring to here are Sen. Bill Brady’s claim that he’s still about 430 votes ahead.

The AP count, which hasn’t moved since the last time I told you about it…

Illinois - 11143 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Brady , Bill GOP 155,210 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 154,701 20%

* 5:07 pm - Meanwhile, in the other gubernatorial race, we have yet to hear anything out of Dan Hynes, who is still seven thousand or so votes behind Gov. Quinn…

Illinois - 11143 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 454,665 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 447,235 50%

My intern Dan Weber asked Rep. Jack Franks a few minutes ago what he thinks Dan Hynes should do right now. Franks endorsed Hynes in the primary. Dan also asked Franks why he thought Hynes came up short. Have a look


Last night, my intern Barton Lorimor talked to Quinn campaign finance director David Rosen about the election results. “I think that one person cannot divide the party any longer,” Rosen said. Rosen also called the victory a “mandate,” and said that even a “one-point” win would be a “mandate.” Watch


* 5:18 pm - State GOP Chairman Pat Brady says the back and forth on this Brady/Dillard primary could take quite a while

Republican state senators Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady remained only a few hundred votes apart, with Brady up slightly Tuesday afternoon. That photo finish is threatening a lengthy and costly recount, though neither campaign has said yet they are ready to pull the trigger.

“It could be a couple of months,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady about a final outcome. “It depends on what happens today. We are not done yet.”

[Comments are now closed on this thread. Go here for a fresh one.]

  26 Comments      


*** UPDATED x5 *** This just in… New numbers

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Updated and bumped up for visibility and importance.]

* As of 2:30 pm, Dillard trails Brady by 509 votes…

Illinois - 11142 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Brady , Bill GOP 155,210 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 154,701 20%

Hynes is making no headway and is down by 7,430…

Illinois - 11142 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 454,665 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 447,235 50%

Jason Plummer leads Matt Murphy by 4,976…

Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 11142 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Plummer , Jason GOP 237,478 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 232,502 33%

Miller leads Krishnamoorthi by 6,923…

Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11142 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Miller , David Dem 386,641 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 379,718 46%

* UPDATE 1 - 2:44 pm - It appears, but I can’t be totally sure, that the precinct count is done in Cook County and included in those numbers. Dillard isn’t moving up as fast as maybe he thought he would. We still have late absentees and provisionals, however.

* UPDATE 2 - 2:49 pm - Clinton County has finished counting its three outstanding precincts. Brady picked up a net 53 votes - a tiny bit more than I expected. St. Clair County is still reporting one precinct not counted.

* UPDATE 3 - 3:18 pm - From the Cook County Clerk’s office…

All precincts reported in suburban Cook County

Unofficial election results for all precincts in suburban Cook County are now posted on cookcountyclerk.com.

Absentee ballots postmarked by midnight on Feb. 1 will be added to the results if they arrive within two weeks of the election. About 800 provisional ballots will be individually checked and, if validated, added to the tally.

Precinct-level results are coming soon.

* UPDATE 4 - 3:20pm - From a commenter…

The City Board of Elections is now reporting everything no except Chicago ward 4 precinct 37.

From this morning:

Dillard +115
Brady +39

Net for Dillard +73

Brady has reportedly told WLS Radio that all votes are in and he won by about 400 430 votes.

Also from comments…

St Clair only has 199 precincts. Yes I counted. #200 might be a software bucket for early or absentees or whatever.

* UPDATE 5 - 3:47pm - The Dillard campaign was hoping to pick up a net of about 100 votes in uncounted Chicago precincts. They fell just a bit shy. Based on my reading of an internal memo, they also apparently didn’t pick up what they thought they would on Cook County absentees.

They were saying earlier that they thought they were about 218 votes down, but that’s not happening yet, of course.

The more immediate problem for Sen. Dillard right now - and it’s one of perception - is that he claimed this morning that he would be ahead by “sundown” today. Sundown today is at 5:09 pm. That’s an hour and 22 minutes from now.

[This thread is now closed. Go here for a fresh one.]

  64 Comments      


The spinning begins in earnest

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Mark Kirk has released a couple results from a new campaign poll which he says has him thumping Alexi Giannoulias in the US Senate race. From a press release…

Just hours after winning the Republican nomination in a landslide election, five-term Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk today released a new survey showing his campaign out to an early double-digit lead over Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias, 47% to 35%.

The survey of 885 Illinois voters, conducted by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies between February 1-2, 2010 with a 3.3% margin of error, showed Kirk holding a net positive favorable/unfavorable rating of +5% while Giannoulias held a net negative favorable/unfavorable rating -15%.

* An NRCC spokesman trashed Dan Seals…

“The nomination of two-time loser Dan Seals is severe blow to the Democratic establishment’s hopes to running a winning campaign in November. As a Democrat, Seals will still have to defend an unacceptably high unemployment rate, a skyrocketing deficit and an out-of-touch agenda to the voters who’ve rejected his ideas twice before.” – Tom Erickson, NRCC spokesman

* The DCCC slammed Sen. Randy Hultgren…

Republican candidate for Illinois’ 14th Congressional District State Senator Randy Hultgren’s real record of raising taxes stands in stark contrast to his hypocritical pledge to oppose any and all efforts to increase the marginal income tax rates. This hypocrisy was not lost on Hultgren’s primary opponent, Ethan Hastert, when he said in a radio commercial “Senator Randy Hultgren, voted for a massive $31 billion tax increase just last year…Randy Hultgren campaigns like a Springfield politician too.”

“Randy Hultgren’s hypocrisy on pledging to not raise taxes and then voting for a $31 billion dollar tax increase, shows his Springfield political tendencies of talking out of both sides of his mouth,” said Gabby Adler, Midwestern Regional Press Secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “In these tough economic times, Illinois families need an honest Representative whose priority is helping middle class families and creating jobs, and State Senator Randy Hultgren simply does not meet this standard.”

* The DCCC also went after Bob Dold…

Republican candidate Robert Dold, who is running against Dan Seals in the 10th Congressional District of Illinois, not only wants to privatize Social Security, he wants to raise the retirement age – taking away critical benefits from Americans of all ages that they have rightly earned and deserve. Just as Washington Republicans are dusting off old failed plans from the past to privatize Social Security, Robert Dold seems to be fitting right in with these Washington Republicans who have time and again attempted to dismantle Social Security.

“Illinois families simply cannot afford to let Robert Dold take us back to the failed policies of George W. Bush that would privatize Social Security and cheat seniors who have worked hard and played by the rules out of the retirement benefits they earned,” said Gabby Adler, Midwestern Regional Press Secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It is only Day One of this campaign, and Robert Dold is already mimicking the very Washington Republicans who shamefully want to jeopardize Social Security when so many Americans are still reeling from their investment losses of the past two years.”

* As I told you earlier, the NRSC has a new YouTube vid slamming Giannoulias. The DSCC issued a press release…

CONGRESSMAN MARK KIRK TO KICK-OFF GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN WITH FELLOW WASHINGTON INSIDER AND MEGA LOBBYIST HALEY BARBOUR

Kirk’s First Move After Winning Primary Is To Stand Shoulder To Shoulder With Embodiment Of GOP Establishment And Special Interests

Republican “Unity” Event To Feature Same Players That Got Country Into Economic Mess In First Place

Today, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is on the offensive against Republican Senate nominee Mark Kirk for kicking off his general election campaign with fellow Washington insider and Mexico lobbyist Haley Barbour. The Republican “Unity” event comes less than 24 hours after Congressman Kirk won the Republican nomination. Now, instead of reaching out to voters he will need to win over in November, Kirk has decided to make a statement about his candidacy by instead, standing shoulder to shoulder with Barbour, who is the embodiment of the GOP establishment and of special interests, having served as Chairman of the RNC and a mega lobbyist in DC.

“Congressman Mark Kirk made a bold statement today about his general election campaign by holding his first post-primary event with a politician whose resume as a Washington insider rivals his own,” said DSCC National Press Secretary Deirdre Murphy. “Instead of reaching out to independent voters, Kirk has decided to kick-off his campaign by standing shoulder to shoulder with fellow Washington insider and establishment Republican Haley Barbour. As if they needed a reminder, this event just shows that Illinois voters will face a stark contrast this November between a candidate who wants to take the state forward and one who wants to take the state backwards.”

Are you feeling all nice and clean? Me neither.

  39 Comments      


Undervoting and a big campaign roundup

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The uproar over the new “undervote” law was partially justified, particularly in areas that didn’t have electronic notification

In many counties, the machines will not only reject the ballots, they’ll beep.

Voters then must take the ballot to an election judge, who will ask the voters if they intentionally left part of the ballot blank. If not, they’ll be allowed to vote in those races. If so, the ballot will be approved. […]

Even in counties where machines don’t beep, voters with rejected ballots will have to approach an election judge, show their ballot and ask for help, said Schultz.

State Board of Elections Director Daniel White said election judges are required to protect the integrity and the secrecy of the voting process and doubts there will be serious problems.

“There’s no reason for them to be staring at the ballots,” White said.

They shouldn’t even be looking at ballots, let alone starting at them.

But, despite the Rockford Register Star’s paranoia, there is a good reason for the law

We’re supposed to have a secret ballot, but when we decided not to vote in a particular race it was no secret to those assembled at our polling places. Election judges were required to ask if we really wanted to leave a race blank. They had enough to do without that extra chore.

People accidentally skip races. The way my paper ballot was laid out yesterday, that would’ve been easy to do.

I first encountered this undervote warning several years ago in Chicago. The card reader wouldn’t accept my ballot and it caused some consternation with the polling judges.

I always undervote. I never vote for unopposed candidates, for instance, and I often skip over judicial retentions. I undervoted yesterday in Springfield and a little light went off alerting me, and all I had to do was push that button and I was done. No biggie. So, it’s probably not a huge deal for many of us

A first-time law aimed at catching ballot errors took effect with Tuesday’s election. It calls for voters to be notified of an “undervote,” that is, if they did not vote in races for statewide constitutional office. If they choose, they can go back and vote in that race. Most did not.

“No. There’s no complaints,” said election judge Mike Chiras after handling Tazewell County voters like Long at the Methodist church. “They know what they want to do.”

“No. There’s been no problem with that,” agreed Harold Dikeman, who was serving as an election judge for Knox County in Yates City. “I know everybody was worried about that.”

Concerns were raised that the 2007 law might create more confusion, not to mention more expense to upgrade voting machines. A couple of state legislators hope to overturn it, and even some sponsors have called for more review.

However, this would not be a good thing, if true. From Illinois Review

One frustrated voter from Aurora spoke to IR today, telling the story of purposefully under-voting because they didn’t know enough about certain candidates and offices. By the time their ballot was submitted, several poll workers had reviewed it - one even asking them why they weren’t filling it all out and pointing to the specific offices this person had purposefully not voted in!

That voter should’ve called the authorities. I hope IR suggested it. I would’ve.

Do you deliberately undervote?

* Here’s your campaign roundup…

* Todd Stroger Talks Race Relations in Concession Speech

* Keats Says He Shouldn’t Be Written Off

* Keats Gets GOP Nod For Cook County Board President

* Berrios Wins Cook County Assessor Primary

* Cronin sails to victory in DuPage chairman race

* Cronin wins DuPage Co. Board chair race

* Dold, Seals declare victory on North Shore while Hastert’s son loses congressional bid

* Hultgreen defeats Hastert in 14th race

* Hultgren defeats Hastert in 14th Congresional Dist. race

* Kinzinger wins in the 11th, will take on Halvorson

* Seals holds slender lead over Hamos in 10th race

* Dold, Seals will face off in 10th District

* Coulson loses to Dold in 10th Congressional; Hamos trails Seals

* Walsh to face Bean in 8th District

* Hirner leading in 18th Congressional race

* Shimkus wins GOP primary in 19th Congressional District

* Newman leading in 12th Congressional District

* Burke barely holding off Lozano

* Burke in tight legislative race in Chicago

* Bassi loses to Morrison in 54th House District GOP primary

* Higgins defeats Forte-Scott in 56th House GOP race

* Sente tops Hartstein in House District 59

* Winters, Wilson win 68th District races

* Voters say no to New Trier referendum

* Carol Stream voters backing rec center plan

* Clark County voters approve half-cent sales tax to finance new courthouse

* Stark County voters OK safety sales tax

* Property tax hike OK’d for new Brimfield high school

* Wind farms: Voters seek slowdown on permits

* Officials: Ill. voter turnout lower than past

* Primary voter turnout ‘extremely disappointing’

* Voter turnout disappointing

* Election 2010: Boone’s 19.95 percent turnout is best in area

* Election judge booted from precinct for bad behavior

* How much does a campaign cost?

* Primary’s over; time to move it to a reasonable date

  20 Comments      


*** UPDATED x2 - Obama calls Hynes *** Obama not so subtly weighs in

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE 1 *** Dan Hynes’ campaign manager just said Obama called Hynes as well and didn’t ask Hynes to concede.

*** UPDATE 2 *** From Hynes spokesman Matt McGrath…

While I would never pretend to speak for the President, it was a warm call, wherein he indicated that he understood our position that every vote should be counted.

[ *** End of Updates *** ]

* President Obama tried to force Dan Hynes’ hand today. No luck yet, though

President Barack Obama called Gov. Pat Quinn to congratulate him on his win in the Democratic primary, even though back in Illinois opponent Dan Hynes has not conceded yet.

News of the phone call, which came at a White House press briefing, puts added pressure on Hynes, who is mulling his options as he trails Quinn by about 7,100 votes. […]

In the Democratic governor’s contest, Hynes is staying out of the public eye so far today.

“We are still in the same posture as last night, taking a look this morning at where things stand,” Hynes spokesman Matt McGrath said. “We’re not prepared to declare victory or concede until all the votes are counted.”

* Mayor Daley called for unity, but wouldn’t say whether Hynes should concede

“I lost an election to Harold Washington in 1983, and the next day I had breakfast with Harold, and I supported him. Just like a basketball or football game, it’s over with, then you support the individual” he said.

But Daley refused to say that Comptroller Dan Hynes should concede to Gov. Pat Quinn and help strengthen the Democratic push to hold onto the governor’s mansion.
“I don’t know. It’s real close,” the mayor said. “I don’t know all the — I haven’t seen the end result.”

* More from Hynes

“I don’t really want to get into the campaign’s mood, other than tired after a long night,” said Hynes spokesman Matt McGrath. “For the time being, we are waiting for every vote to be counted, and that will be our posture for the foreseeable future.”

Thom Serafin, a Chicago political strategist who has advised both Republicans and Democrats in the past, said the feeling on the ground is that Quinn will probably narrowly escape with a win, but that Hynes could mount a recount.

“Dan Hynes has a determination to make on proceeding with any kind of discovery,” he said. “He probably should do it with how close it is.”

* The latest results as of 1:46 pm…

llinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 451,871 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 444,779 50%

* What’s left to count in Cook County

There’s also about 800 provisional ballots that need to be verified and at least 1,000 absentee ballots to be counted. The absentee ballots had to be postmarked Monday, but have two weeks to arrive at county offices.

Around 7,000 total absentee ballots were sent out, and about 3,700 already have been counted.

  22 Comments      


GOP Unity Breakfast videos - And the NRSC goes after Giannoulias

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Bill Brady talks to the press as he arrives at the Illinois Republican Unity Breakfast this morning. Brady said he considers Illinois be to a “center right” state


* Sen. Kirk Dillard speaks to reporters about the margin of the race. He predicted “by sundown today, I’ll be in the lead”


* Senate GOP Leader Christine Radogno talks to my intern Barton Lorimor about the results


Chew on these for now, and I’ll upload more in a bit.

* The NRSC releases a YouTube video claiming that Alexi Giannoulias “would make Tony Soprano proud.” Watch it


* OK, back to the breakfast. Jim Ryan supporter Joe Birkett talks to reporters


* More vids from this morning…

* Mark Kirk’s address to the IL GOP Unity Breakfast

* Sen. Brady addresses the IL GOP Unity Breakfas

* Sen. Dillard addresses the IL GOP Unity Breakfast

  30 Comments      


Breaking campaign news open thread

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 7:30 am - I’ve been up all night working, so I’m gonna take a nap. I have session this afternoon and I definitely need some rest.

I’ll post more stories later. But if big news breaks - somebody concedes, or final counts come in, or the like - please post it here and discuss it in comments. Thanks.

…By the way, I just checked the site stats, and yesterday’s traffic was higher than any day since Rod Blagojevich’s arrest. Wow.

[This thread is now closed.]

  162 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Why do you think some of your primary predictions didn’t match up with reality yesterday? Be honest, please.

  70 Comments      


We will not be shoehorned

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A good friend sent me an e-mail last night with the subject line: “A message to the national media”…

Go ahead and try to decipher those election non-results and fit them into your nice little MSM political puzzle.

Heh. Scott Brown redux it wasn’t, that’s for sure.

Let’s see, now…

The flawed incumbent governor won a hard-fought primary with gigantic piles of cash from SEIU (horrors) and old guard party leaders. A conservative gubernatorial candidate with no real ties to the “Tea Party” types is essentially tied with the candidate of the true GOP old guard. A moderate Republican tied his conservative tea party enemies in knots and easily won the US Senate primary, and his Democratic opponent defeated a noted “reformer” backed to the hilt by angry newspaper editorial boards - and his chief of staff won the treasurer’s primary with slating from party regulars. A ten-year state Rep. defeated an insurgent “new politician” in the Democratic comptroller’s race. A longtime office-holder won the Republican comptroller’s race. And a pawnbroker with a past won the Democratic lt. governor’s race…

Scott Lee Cohen, a pawn broker and cleaning supply distributor, appeared to be edging out state Rep. Art Turner for the Democratic nomination. Cohen had 26 percent of the vote to Turner’s 22 percent, with 97 percent counted.

Cohen, a little-known candidate who financed much of the campaign with his own fortune, will have to answer questions during the general election race as more is learned about him. He was charged with a 2005 misdemeanor domestic battery charge.
He was accused of beating a woman, but the case was dropped a month later when she refused to show up in court to pursue the charges.

Hmmm. How about Jason Plummer? He’s certainly a fresh face, but he got the lt. guv nomination after spending a ton of his family’s money on a mostly non-ideological campaign.

Ethan Hastert’s loss to Sen. Randy Hultgren? Maybe. But was it “insider vs. outsider” or just “the kid ain’t his old man”?

Bob Dold over Beth Coulson in the 10th CD Republican primary? Dold was a mainstream conservative who touted his endorsement by Sen. Dick Lugar. Dick Green was the candidate who really tried to reach out to the “tea party” types.

Adam Kinzinger in the 11th CD? Great, young politician. Will get a lot of help from DC. But his primary opposition wasn’t much to crow about, and he’s basically a hand-picked DC candidate, so I’m not sure you can say he’s a total outsider.

Toni Preckwinkle probably comes closest, but she’s a black, liberal, wonkish Democrat. That’s not exactly the meme being developed by the DC crowd these days.

The Tribune ecstatically congratulated voters for listening to its constant rants and ousting Todd Stroger (as if that was in any danger of not happening). It didn’t mention all those other big losses, though, except for a petulant broadside against Giannoulias which began with an out-of-context quote from the preznit.

Can you think of an appropriate meme for this primary election? Snark heavily encouraged.

  47 Comments      


How close is Brady/Dillard? Very

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* In case you missed it last night, Bill Brady is leading Kirk Dillard by just 503 votes with 97 precincts to count…

Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Brady , Bill GOP 154,646 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 154,143 20%

Nate Silver at 538 takes a look at the numbers

If I project out the remaining Cook County precincts based on the previous ones, I show Dillard picking up another 800 votes and Brady another 225. That would make the statewide margin Dillard 154,876, and Brady 154,877 — an advantage of literally one vote for Brady.

Silver didn’t include results from three Downstate precincts, where I give Brady about a 36-40 vote net advantage, plus things like provisional ballots, absentee ballots, etc. But this race is certainly close. Very close. It’s going to a recount for sure.

He’s totally right about the Quinn/Hynes race, though…

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, incumbent Pat Quinn is performing slightly better than his statewide numbers in Cook County and it looks like his ~7,000-vote advantage over Dan Hynes will expand rather than contract. There might be a recount but unless there are mass irregularities or whole stashes of ballots that haven’t been counted yet, it is unlikely to change the outcome.

It’s over. Hynes should bow out. The same goes for Raja Krishnamoorthi…

Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Miller , David Dem 383,895 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 377,717 46%
Krislov , Clint Dem 62,729 8%

And Matt Murphy…

Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Plummer , Jason GOP 236,445 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 231,469 33%

…Adding… Jason Plummer isn’t waiting on Sen. Murphy to concede and has gone ahead and declared victory. From a press release…

Jason Plummer, Republican candidate for Lt. Governor declared victory this morning. With 99percent of all Illinois precincts reporting, Plummer leads his closest opponent by nearly 5000 votes. “Late last night, I accepted the congratulation of three of my opponents, this morning as the Republican Party’s Lt. Governor nominee, I look forward to out ticket coming together and beginning the work of creating a new brand of leadership in Springfield.” Plummer said.

Plummer and some of his supporters will attend the Republican Party Unity Breakfast this morning at the Union League Club in Chicago.

We’ll have video from that unity breakfast later today.

* So, what happens next? The AP fills us in

Right now, the results are unofficial. Election authorities will count late-arriving absentee ballots, randomly check some of the results, inspect voting equipment and then declare official winners.

That takes two weeks. Then the losing candidates might decide to seek a recount.

Unlike some states, Illinois doesn’t automatically conduct recounts in close races. Officials say the candidates have to go to court and ask for one.

They also have to pay for the recount.

  29 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

  Comments Off      


Live-blogging the results, Part 5 - It ain’t over ’til it’s over, unless you’re David Orr

Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 1:36 am - New numbers in the GOP governor’s race…

Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 11091 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Brady , Bill GOP 154,622 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 154,076 20%

546-vote margin. Dillard made up about 900 votes since the last tabulation. I think that was from the uncounted (by AP) votes in Lake County. Dillard is outpolling Brady 3-1 in the city and almost 4-1 in suburban Cook.

* The Tribune wasted no time in going after Scott Lee Cohen

Scott Lee Cohen, a pawn broker and cleaning supply distributor, appeared to be edging out state Rep. Art Turner for the Democratic nomination [for lt. governor]. Cohen had 26 percent of the vote to Turner’s 22 percent, with 97 percent counted.

Cohen, a little-known candidate who financed much of the campaign with his own fortune, will have to answer questions during the general election race as more is learned about him. He was charged with a 2005 misdemeanor domestic battery charge.
He was accused of beating a woman, but the case was dropped a month later when she refused to show up in court to pursue the charges.

* As I told you earlier, Raja Krishnamoorthi refused to concede. But there’s little chance of overturning this one…

Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11097 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Miller , David Dem 382,850 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 376,897 46%

That’s almost 6,000 votes. In the age of electronic balloting, that’s gonna be pretty darned tough, if not impossible to overturn. Here’s Rep. David Miller’s speech


* 1:49 am - New numbers

Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 11097 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Brady , Bill GOP 154,629 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 154,119 20%

510 votes. That’s a 36-vote pickup in the six precincts counted since the last update - 6 votes per precinct. If that trend holds, Dillard picks up a net 708 votes - meaning he has the potential of winning by 198 votes. LOL. Recount city, baby.

There are 117 GOP precincts still to be counted in suburban Cook and Chicago. Only one other precinct remains unaccounted for. I’m not sure where that one is, or maybe AP and I have different numbers for Cook/Chicago.

* Clinton County hasn’t yet counted 3 precincts. Brady is doing very well there, and if current trends hold, he picks up about 35 or 36 net votes.

* St. Clair County hasn’t yet counted one precinct. Based on current trends, that’s a couple/three votes net for Brady.

* 2:11 am - New numbers…

Illinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Brady , Bill GOP 154,646 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 154,143 20%

503-vote margin. That’s only a seven-vote pickup, even though 21 precincts were counted. Not many Republicans in those precincts. Somebody on the Brady team might want to call Clinton and St. Clair counties and see if they can finish counting tonight, but he may not need it. Fun.

* 2:24 am - David Orr has suspended tallying. From a press release…

To allow for public viewing, tallying of results for suburban Cook County will resume on Wednesday, Feb. 3, at the Clerk’s election warehouse, 4545 W. Cermak, Chicago.

Counting of the remaining 24 of 1,937 precincts will begin at 9 a.m. All are welcome.

Unofficial suburban Cook County election results, suspended at 98.76 percent of precincts reporting, are available at cookcountyclerk.com.

That really sucks.

* I just got an e-mail from the Jim Ryan campaign…

ELECTION DAY:
Help Us Send 100,000 E-Yard Signs Today!
It’s Primary Election Day — and today the Illinois Republican voters will take a first step toward restoring honest, ethical authentic leadership to Springfield.
I would be honored to have your vote — and need your help to get our voters to the polls today.

That explains some things.

* Well, since Cook, Chicago, St. Clair and Clinton counties have all suspended counting, it’s time to end the blog portion of our program.

  45 Comments      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Misguided Insurance Regulation Proposals Could Increase Premiums For The Majority Of Illinoisans
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* IEMA, DoIT directors depart
* Sen. Durbin's dangerous idea could worsen the problem he wants to solve
* Stop Credit Card Chaos In Illinois
* It’s just a bill
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Live coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
March 2025
February 2025
January 2025
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller