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Giannoulias claims race is now tied
Monday, May 17, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * The Alexi Giannoulias campaign has two recent polls for our perusal. Click here for the memo. The first poll was conducted April 27th through the 29th by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the campaign…
The Giannoulias family bank was seized on April 23rd, so they gave the event some time to percolate and then ran their poll. Their result is pretty close to Rasmussen’s April 28th poll which had Kirk ahead of Giannoulias 46-38. The Giannoulias campaign let things settle down a bit and went back into the field after running a few hundred thousand dollars in TV ads which attacked Mark Kirk and tied him to former President Bush. The ad started around May 4th… Kirk quickly countered with his own TV ad buy… The latest Giannoulias campaign poll was taken May 11th through the 13th - just after the ad buy concluded - and shows the race a tie…
We shouldn’t jump to too many conclusions until we see some independent polling, but there you go. From what I gather, the use of Bush in that ad pushed recalcitrant African-Americans and other Democrats towards Giannoulias. He’s been hovering at around 60 percent or so support there, but calling out Kirk as a “Bush Republican” apparently works enough to move numbers. * In other campaign news, Gov. Quinn recently fed some red meat to the base…
* Related…
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- DzNuts - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:18 pm:
“We’re not going to let a bunch of right-wing reactionary politicians tear down our state, tear down our president, tear down our country for political gain”. But, by Quinn’s logic, it was okay to sit on his hands for six years while a left-wing reactionary, headline seeking running mate nearly destroyed the state, throwing political opponents and even supporters under the bus for political gain. Short memory there Mr. Quinn.
- VanillaMan - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:25 pm:
“We’re not going to let a bunch of right-wing reactionary politicians tear down our state, tear down our president, tear down our country for political gain,” he said.
That is a good political statement to use. Untrue, but good.
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:26 pm:
- But, by Quinn’s logic, it was okay to sit on his hands for six years while a left-wing reactionary, headline seeking running mate nearly destroyed the state -
I love when people like you claim to make a logical comparison and fail so miserably. Blago was hardly a left wing reactionary, he had no ideals, just a desire for personal gain through whatever means necessary. Quinn, by all accounts performed his duties as Lt. Governor admirably and did not have any personal or professional association with Blago. So keep throwing it up there, but good luck getting this BS to stick.
- John Bambenek - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:27 pm:
It’s politics kids… it doesn’t matter what’s true, it matters what you can make people believe.
- VanillaMan - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:33 pm:
Quinn, by all accounts performed his duties as Lt. Governor admirably and did not have any personal or professional association with Blago.
Quinn had no professional association with Blagojevich? Not only was Quinn his running mate, twice, Quinn backed Blagojevich as investigations were underway. Quinn is on record endorsing Blagojevich. Quinn was the political veteran with the squeaky-clean reputation who helped salve corruption concerns over Blagojevich. Until Blagojevich was arrested, Quinn was used with Quinn’s approval to counter corruption charges against Blagojevich. Quinn didn’t speak out against his running mate until Blagojevich was arrested.
Your statement is ridiculous.
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:34 pm:
- It’s politics kids… it doesn’t matter what’s true, it matters what you can make people believe. -
Thanks John, how are all of those political campaigns you’ve helped out on doing?
- Wumpus - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:34 pm:
STL, he ran with the guy, two times…that is enough of an association for me. It seems like everyone knew Blago was dirty the second time he ran, except Quinn.
There is no need for “right-wing” reactionaires to tear this state down, Quinn and the gang have done a fine job on thier own.
- Rich Miller - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:34 pm:
=== It seems like everyone knew Blago was dirty the second time he ran, except Quinn.===
And the voters, who reelected him.
- cassandra - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:36 pm:
Well, trashing SP allows Quinn to distract his left-leaning supporters from his own severe difficulties with competent governing (not to mention his strong ties to the Chicago Machine even unto the many Blago hires he has been unable to let go). Not to mention his inability to stick with decisions even over the short term, so that anything he says on any topic must be viewed with extreme skepticism. Even his tax increase. 1 percent, 2 percent, no percent…….it’s all good.
But let’s face it, SP was never particularly popular in Ilinois. Her primary value is as an entertainer. And she does give good value in that.
And the Dems are aware that Illinois’ perennially gullible citizens are easily distracted. Expect to read and hear a lot more about Sarah, despite her utter irrelevance to the Illinois political scene.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:39 pm:
1. I don’t think its so much tying Mark Kirk to Bush, as it is tying him to bad GOP policies, that has rejuvenated the Giannoulias campaign. Alexi has been focused on Jobs/Economy since he announced this campaign, he’s stayed focused, and if he stays focused, he’ll win. Not by much, but enough to end Kirk’s career in politics.
2. By the same token, its not going to be enough to tie Quinn to Rod as his running mate and a fellow Democrat. If Republicans can’t find Quinn backing Rod’s bad policies or illegal activities, they’re wasting their time and their breath.
3. Speaking of wasted breath, the Kirk ad was all over the map. What, like eight different bullet points? Kirk lacks a central, compelling argument for why he should be U.S. Senator and Alexi should not.
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:40 pm:
Wumpus and Vman - Last I checked, Pat Quinn is the first Illinois governor to get to pick his running mate. Implying that Quinn and Blago were buddies who ran together like it was a cutest couple contest is ridiculous. Blago himself announced in 2006 that Quinn wasn’t part of his administration. So again, try to make it stick, it isn’t happening.
- Segatari - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:42 pm:
>“We’re not going to let a bunch of right-wing reactionary politicians tear down our state, tear down our president, tear down our country for political gain,” he said.
Pat Quinn, word of advice, look in a mirror.
- Irish - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:43 pm:
“We’re not going to let a bunch of right-wing reactionary politicians tear down our state, tear down our president, tear down our country for political gain,” he said.
“But we will, however, let a power hungry ego maniac obstruct every effort to bring our state out of the fiscal mess it is in for HIS political gain.”
And BTW, how much more can be torn down? It looks pretty much in ruin right now. Get a clue Pat.
- 47th Ward - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:44 pm:
I’m not terribly surprised that Giannoulias’ internals show a tight race, but they better hope it’s an accurate poll and not wishful thinking. As Rich cautions, let’s wait to see what some independent polls report before making assumptions.
FYI, Ben Smith at Politico had this curious story, which if there is anything to it, could make for some awkward campaigning:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0510/Kirk_doesnt_ask_tell.html
It’s hard to see Giannoulias making a big deal out of this. What’s he going to do, criticize Kirk for not reporting gay service members? On the other hand, given Kirk’s odd response, DADT could be a hot potato in the Senate race, with neither side wanting to touch this one.
Of course, if a third party gets on the ballot…
- Irish - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:46 pm:
Right now SP is an entertainer. Much like the WWE. The danger is when people start thinking either is real.
- Loop Lady - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 12:58 pm:
Sarah Palin is all for Sarah Palin…the fact is bloggers, that Quinn took over as Governor 16 months ago, after George Ryan and Blago made a complete mess of the state, especially in the revenue/unfunded mandates categories…factor in the worst recession since the Great Depression, lack of intestinal fortitude in the Legislature, and entrenched/do nothing except what’s good for me and my caucus leadership on both sides of the aisle and VOILA! here we are folks! Still can’t blame Quinn for this mess…
- PFK - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:09 pm:
Hey 47th, a third party is already on the ballot — LeAlan Jones. There’s even a link to a story about him in the post.
- 47th Ward - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:12 pm:
Thanks PFK, I should have known that. Do you happen to know if Jones has a position on DADT? Seems like a perfect issue for him to get some support for his candidacy because, as I mentioned, I don’t think either Kirk or Giannoulias wants to go down this road.
- Confused - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:22 pm:
WWE is not real?
- wordslinger - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:31 pm:
=== It seems like everyone knew Blago was dirty the second time he ran, except Quinn.===
And the voters, who reelected him.==
Truer words were never said. Millions of them, for a matter fact.
For the record, my personal voting scorecard in the Blago era was Vallas, Blago, Eisendrath, Whitney. My Blago vote was anti-Ryan for the Cruz case.
Where are the Greenies, anyway? Like Rich said, maybe they’re terrified of winning. Governing can be so dirty, so un-green.
Isn’t there a Greenie whiz kid that can get them in ANY kind of media? Fox has been all over Scott Lee Cohen (why three names, anyway?) and gave a full minute this morning to Dock Walls and Scanlan. Brutal.
You gotta sell it, my Green brother.
- CircularFiringSquad - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:31 pm:
So CommandoKirk has fizzled already? Not much of a surprise.
Next is NoTaxBill…btw anyone heard from Plummer lately…maybe he resting at the FL condo.
BTW-2 Noticed Karl Rove is claiming to pumping $50 million in to state races….any headed toward IL?
- Plutocrat03 - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:34 pm:
Polls at 5+ months before an election are not definitive by any stretch.
AG’s mantra for jobs is good until it becomes clear that it is all talk. So far no none of the big government big spending programs produce real jobs.
fool me once…..
- dave - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:37 pm:
**Seems like a perfect issue for him to get some support for his candidacy because, as I mentioned, I don’t think either Kirk or Giannoulias wants to go down this road. **
Giannoulias has actually been pretty aggressive in his support for ending DADT.
- just sayin' - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:39 pm:
Just like in the gov’s race, two very uninspiring choices.
Despite all the blah blah blah about an angry electorate, I think turnout in November will be near a record low in Illinois. Other states will see big shake-ups, but unlikely here.
- wordslinger - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:41 pm:
The idea that the Illinois Democratic Party, led by Daley, Madigan, Quinn, Cullerton et al. is “leftist” is hilarious. Throw in Dubin and Obama, and you’re still not there. You’re thinking of the political culture in irrelevant terms.
For those who want government to operate like a business, look to Illinois. Politics is big business, on both sides of the aisle. Everyone’s looking to maximize value.
it’s nothing personal, it’s just business.
- Amalia - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:45 pm:
Kirk is right about the Highland Park girls playing hoops. when Eric Zorn thinks the HP administration is wrong, you know the liberals have taken things too far in HP. come on Alexi, answer the question!
- wordslinger - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:49 pm:
Kirk’s kind of on the milk carton, isn’t he? Is that strategy, or just the way he rolls?
He has a sweet resume, and a damaged opponent. But he’s going to have to step up into the arena at some point, for name recognition only.
- ashamed 2b a democrat - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 1:58 pm:
i don’t know if linking kirk 2 bush is enough 2 motivate Dems 2 go 2 the polls.
what is up with greek bankers having taxpayers clean up their mistakes? i’m not blaming alexi for greece’s problems but i think it is bad timing 4 alexi.
- Conservative Republican - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 2:02 pm:
@ wordslinger
Wordslinger, like many Illinois cradle Democrats, you don’t know the difference between business and free enterprise on one hand, and crony capitalism on the other…
- wordslinger - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 2:23 pm:
CR, bite me or buy my accounts receivable. I make my own buck in the private sector.
Ryan, Fawell, Cellini, Bob KJ, they were “conservative republicans,” too, right? No crony capitalism there?
If you’re looking for easily identifiable good guys and bad guys, my kids tell me “Ironman II” is pretty good.
By the way, I consider myself an FDR/HST liberal, and even a TR progressive. You guys have debased the word “conservative” and your buddy Glenn Beck now says TR was the American Lenin because he was a “progressive.”
- Rich Miller - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 2:24 pm:
===I consider myself an FDR/HST liberal===
For a second, I thought you meant Hunter S. Thompson. lol
- JonShibleyFan - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 2:25 pm:
“like many Illinois cradle Democrats, you don’t know the difference between business and free enterprise on one hand, and crony capitalism on the other… ”
Then by all means, will the party of George Ryan, Bill Cellini and Bob Kjellander give us an education?
- just sayin' - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 2:32 pm:
Say what you want about Sarah Palin, but it took her coming in from out of state last Wednesday and taking a firm stand on the Arizona trip issue to get the GOP men here to step up and say anything. Brady and Kirk wouldn’t dive in until Palin had shown the water was fine. Buncha wimps.
- wordslinger - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 2:33 pm:
Actually, that works, too. When the going gets weird…..
Some of the best political reporting you can ever read is in “The Great Shark Hunt.” The transcript of HST (Hunter) and Pat Buchanan, in the midst of Watergate, working it out over Black Labels at a Washington bar is as good as anything you’ll ever learn at JFK Harvard School of Government.
- Conservative Republican - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 2:54 pm:
@ wordslinger
“FDR/HST liberal, and even a TR progressive”
Gosh,…color me surprised.
There isn’t a Democrat elected to office in this entire state who wouldn’t say the same thing and look where that has gotten us.
- 47th Ward - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 2:58 pm:
===Buncha wimps===
Far be it from me to step in to defend the honor of these two “GOP men,” but facts are facts. The Highland Park story broke in the morning newspapers. Palin spoke in the evening.
That doesn’t leave a whole lot of time for Brady and Kirk to “step up and say anything” especially since Kirk was in DC. Credit where it’s due though, because Palin stepped up and made this a national story. Good on her. But to suggest Brady and Kirk stayed silent is a gross misrepresentation of last week’s events. Just saying.
===Say what you want about Sarah Palin===
I fully intend to.
- downstater - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:01 pm:
nationwide independants are breaking hard for Reps. That cannot be good news for Alexi or PAT.
- Rich Miller - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:06 pm:
downstater, as we’ve discussed here several times before, independents aren’t what they used to be. Huge numbers of people stopped identifying as Republicans and then moved to the independent column. That’s skewing the data.
- Just Noticed - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:06 pm:
When they show the snippet of the Giannoulias’s attack ad in the beggining of Kirk’s ad, they cut out W. Hilarious.
- dave - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:13 pm:
especially since Kirk was in DC
Kirk can’t give press statements from DC?
- VanillaMan - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:41 pm:
Implying that Quinn and Blago were buddies who ran together like it was a cutest couple contest is ridiculous.
However, as you know, I didn’t claim that, did I?
You wrote that Quinn had no personal or professional association with Rod Blagojevich. Take a look above. You wrote that.
Claiming that I somehow said they are a couple is as ridiculous as your original statement. Claiming that a Governor and their running mate has no professional association is ridiculous and you know it.
You need to make a backtrack statement without trying to put words in my mouth.
- VanillaMan - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:44 pm:
Huge numbers of people stopped identifying as Republicans and then moved to the independent column. That’s skewing the data.
This is not solely a GOP issue anymore. Since 2008, we are seeing a voter shift that includes Democrats as well.
- Rich Miller - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:48 pm:
===Since 2008, we are seeing a voter shift that includes Democrats as well. ===
From what I’ve seen, it’s not nearly as profound. Perhaps I’m wrong, but I’d like to see some numbers from you first.
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:48 pm:
Oh jesus Vman, ok, I’m sure Quinn had to be in the same building as Blago occasionally. Can I get a statement from you clarifying that you don’t think Quinn can be called a Blago associate or faulted for being Lt. Gov. during his tenure?
- Rich Miller - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:50 pm:
STL, Quinn was RRB’s running mate. No amount of denying can ever undo that fact. He’s gotta deal with it. Also, I wrote in 2005 that RRB threatened Quinn with a “divorce” if PQ didn’t stop bad-mouthing the guv. Quinn toned it way down.
- VanillaMan - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 3:57 pm:
Can I get a statement from you clarifying that you don’t think Quinn can be called a Blago associate or faulted for being Lt. Gov. during his tenure?
This is Illinois. Our recent leaders have let me down too much for me to claim any of them are milky white virgins without blemish - including any running mate of Rod Blagojevich’s.
- Conservative Republican - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 4:05 pm:
@ STL
Give it up, dude. Quinn has to wear the Blago jacket, and 10,000 words written about the separate selection process for LiteGovs in this state is not going to placate the voters.
I can assure you that Jim Thompson wasn’t thrilled about having George Ryan as his running mate, but they certainly turned out to be the happy couple for several decades.
- Rich Miller - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 4:06 pm:
===I can assure you that Jim Thompson wasn’t thrilled about having George Ryan as his running mate===
You would be wrong.
- Bubs - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 4:16 pm:
=== It seems like everyone knew Blago was dirty the second time he ran, except Quinn.===
==And the voters, who reelected him.==
Well, you can’t blame Topinka. She called him out, but no one believed her. Then the grand jury story broke in October, and STILL no one believed her, and re-elected a fraud scheme as the top of their Executive Branch.
What a state!
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 4:18 pm:
Alright, they were running mates. I still think its misleading and ignorant to suggest Quinn had anything to do with Blago’s corruption, which is what DzNuts was implying in his post above.
- phocion - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 4:23 pm:
Settle down, STS. I think the point is that enabling corruption by standing silently with your running mate is pretty damnable. And it is.
- wordslinger - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 4:42 pm:
Conservative Republican, you’re just another victim heard from. Life’s tough — hope it gets better for you sometime.
TR, FDR and HST — Reagan liked those guys. He voted for FDR four times. Read him — he’ll tell you why. You can find the books at your local library. You can find your local library at emaps.
Going back to the original post — Michael Madigan’s a leftist? Good Irish Catholic boy like that? Or Quinn, the Fenwick alum? They don’t make leftists like they used to.
Dude, you’re not even in the ballgame.
- wordslinger - Monday, May 17, 10 @ 4:46 pm:
–I can assure you that Jim Thompson wasn’t thrilled about having George Ryan as his running mate, but they certainly turned out to be the happy couple for several decades.–
Several decades? Whatever. Math is hard.
You can say what you want about Big Jim, but he stood by Ryan til the cell door slammed and beyond. That’s old school, and that’s admirable.
We don’t live in Mayberry.This is a tough, though, civilived, part of the country. Reading a short history on Illinois would curl your hair. But so would reading Genesis.
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