Rasmussen: Quinn closing the gap
Friday, Jul 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The latest Rasmussen Reports poll has some major movement in the governor’s race. Numbers in brackets are results from the pollster on June 7, April 28, April 5 and March 8…
Brady: 43% [47% 45%, 45%, 47%]
Quinn: 40% [36% 38%, 38%, 37%]
Some Other Candidate 9% [8% 5%, 7%, 6%]
Not sure 8% [10% 11%, 10%, 9%]
* From the pollster…
The survey, taken Wednesday night, follows Quinn’s announcement late last week that he was cutting state spending by $1 billion as he wrestles with one of the worst state budget deficits in the country. State legislators wrapped up their session earlier this year, leaving Quinn with a $13 billion deficit to resolve. […]
Given Illinois’ economic problems and the national political environment, Quinn is in a surprisingly tough race despite the powers of incumbency and the state’s strong Democratic tendencies.
* Favorables…
Eleven percent (11%) of Illinois voters now have a Very favorable opinion of Quinn, while 27% view him Very Unfavorably.
Brady is seen Very Favorably by 15% and Very Unfavorably by 16%.
These numbers are consistent with the earlier surveys. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
* Quinn approval…
* How would you rate the job Pat Quinn has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
10% Strongly approve
34% Somewhat approve
23% Somewhat disapprove
31% Strongly disapprove
3% Not sure
* Methodology…
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC
- wapak - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:10 am:
Dumb and dumber or, a race to the bottom. Take your pick.
Post-election is going to be a mess no matter which incompetent ends up winning.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:12 am:
Like the senate race, the winner here probably will be the one who steps in it least. They are all quite capable of running headlong into it.
- Bman - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:13 am:
Lets see what the announcemnt of Quinn giving staff raises does to the poll numbers.
- Cincinnatus - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:14 am:
Actually, the numbers are strikingly similar to the polls for the Senate. Seems like we have settled on 40% races for the rest of the summer. Barring any explosive issues, I think we will see this trend until the dog days are over. Now that the candidates have “introduced” themselves, they will probably swing into fundraising mode (watch those campaign disclosures, it should be interesting). Come the fall, we are going to have a blast talking about the slime that we will see.
- PFK - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:16 am:
Another day, another garbage poll by Rasmussen. There are going to be at least 3 but maybe 5 or 6 candidates for voters to choose from. “Some other candidate” doesn’t cut it.
- Small Town Liberal - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:17 am:
- Now that the candidates have “introduced” themselves -
Brady hasn’t been properly introduced just yet, and I think thats been to his benefit so far.
- bored now - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:18 am:
right, pfk, because they will have people besides their families voting for them. most of us here are interested in who’s going to win, not who needed an ego boost…
- Team Sleep - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:18 am:
I want to see the results after the voting public reads about Quinn’s staff payraises.
- IrishPirate - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:18 am:
Quinn V Brady.
The unelectable versus the unelectable.
Yet, somehow someone has to get elected.
Perhaps it will be a tie.
- Irish - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:19 am:
Perfect illustration of how potential voters react to what they want to hear instead of what might be best for the State.
I wish they would have followed up with a question such as, “Gov. Quinn’s cuts will eliminate a program you use regularly. How do you rate his performance now?”
- Anonymous - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:25 am:
How many voters strongly disapprove of both Quinn and Brady?
- George - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:29 am:
Sorry, Rasmussen is BS. I guess I agree with Mr. Yang on that one!
It seems like he is trying to say that Quinn got a big bump because he said he was going to cut spending. Trying to force that message into the discussion.
Political hack.
- George - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:31 am:
On the positive side for Quinn (if the numbers can be believed) - 44% approval is pretty darn high in Illinois political history.
A lot higher than 13%.
- attention pollsters - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:34 am:
Doesn’t Rasmussen usually trend a few points toward the GOP side? Does this suggest that other polls will show a dead heat?
- Loop Lady - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:35 am:
Anonymous: Plenty…besides, there are 3 independant candidates for Governor in the upcoming races in November, even though SLC is a horses dupa, there is the Green Party candidate…Rassumusen does his credibility no favors when he excludes them from polling…maybe John Q. Public will realize the two party corrupted system is broken beyond repair, but probably not…Quinn will win in November, and a few bones will be thrown out by the GA session in 2011…taxes must certainly be raised, and if a bipartisan commission on tax reform could actually help implement reform, Il could gasp for breath and live to see another fiscal year squeak on by…
- VanillaMan - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:43 am:
I am no longer surprised.
I have come to expect Brady benefitting by our fiscal calamity and our governmental abandonment.
Neither candidate is credible as gubernatorial material. Both candidates could have lost their primaries easily. The are both electoral mistakes, Quinn by impeachment and Brady by 200 votes. Both are known. Both have lost races in this tier before, and for good reasons. There is nothing exciting about either candidate.
Quinn became governor because we desperately needed to get the Governor out. Brady may become governor for the same reason.
Neither inspires.
I believe it is possible that this poll demonstrates that Illinoisans recognize with open eyes the poverty of leadership residing within both gubernatorial candidates. They see that no one will jump in this race to give them a better alternative. They understand that they do not have to make a decision between these two until November. And, like most of us, they’d rather not choose at all.
This race will be won by the Republican because this midterm election is only registering any kind of enthusiasm on the GOP side. Brady will win by riding on the coat-tails of that enthusiasm.
- Small Town Liberal - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:54 am:
- Brady will win by riding on the coat-tails of that enthusiasm. -
Is this some kind of special enthusiasm that causes poll numbers to fall? If I were Brady I’d be a little concerned about the amount of money my campaign had spent only to have numbers drop, especially when Quinn hasn’t really started hitting back yet.
- Aldyth - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:57 am:
Race to the bottom, exactly. Illinois has never been in worse condition than it is right now and we have two candidates from the major parties on the ballot who have no business being governor.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 10:57 am:
I’m talking about mid-term turn out having GOP coat-tails on Election Day, not now!
Geez!
- Small Town Liberal - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 11:02 am:
VanillaMan - Take it easy man, you said “is only registering any kind of enthusiasm on the GOP side”, I wasn’t sure how that fit in with this poll.
- cassandra - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 11:04 am:
It’s up to Brady to point out that a sizeable number of these cuts, most of which are as yet unspecified,may not actually happen. The specifics Quinn has discussed, curtailing travel and renegotiating leases, add up to a few million at most. And when the dust settles on last year, what was actually cut (vs. put off to the future).
Not much, I believe, although getting believeable information is tough, especially since so many payments are outstanding. A delayed payment is not a budget cut, though. It’s a delayed payment.
If Quinn is getting some points in the polls on his budget “cuts,” Brady and his campaign staff should pay attention and refute his assertions wherever possible. Right now, Quinn and Brady seem to be mainly in “yes I did, no you didn’t” mode, minus significant details, on budget cuts.
- inkers - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 11:58 am:
I do not really care what the polls say at this point. It is to early. The one thing that I believe will really hurt Governor Quinn in November is the fact that he did not fumigate the Blagojevich appointees out of state government. Most are still on the payroll and do no work what so ever. He moved most of them from the Governor office to Human Services. That is why I will vote against any incumbment in the House and Senate and Governor. If it takes two elections I hope the voters in Illinois will do the same. That is my opinion take it or leave it.
- dave - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 12:08 pm:
It seems like he is trying to say that Quinn got a big bump because he said he was going to cut spending. Trying to force that message into the discussion. … Political hack.
Wait… you think Rasmussen is a Democrat political hack? That’s funny.
- dave - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 12:09 pm:
The specifics Quinn has discussed, curtailing travel and renegotiating leases, add up to a few million at most.
Umm… there have been a lot more than that. Do you like to be blatantly dishonest?
- Sacks Romana - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 12:34 pm:
Whitney should be included.
My pet theory on why he hasn’t been is that Rasmussen doesn’t want to spend the extra money on asking the additional questions that go along with poll inclusion (ie favorables/unfavorables).
The Green Party is an established Illinois party under the law, and Whitney has been certified on the ballot the exact same amount of time as Quinn and Brady. He’s polling 5-15% four months out from the election. He didn’t hit that point in 2006 until maybe a month before the election.
If other independent or third-party candidates end up getting certified, they should also be included. Unfortunately this will probably include Scott Lee Cohen. It speaks volumes about Quinn and the Democrats that they didn’t even bother to mount a petition challenge against SLC, but continue to harass legitimate Green candidates running for the General Assembly.
- Small Town Liberal - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 12:43 pm:
- It speaks volumes about Quinn and the Democrats that they didn’t even bother to mount a petition challenge against SLC, but continue to harass legitimate Green candidates running for the General Assembly. -
What a joke. Cohen had over 100,000 signatures, it would have been a futile effort of Green Party like proportions to challenge those. Unlike you, Sacks, some people like to win occasionally instead of wasting time.
- MsGoody - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 1:57 pm:
To me, the fact that Bill Brady is still leading after people know him as well as they do is pretty disconcerting.
Between labor and Quinn’s own network, Pat should raise more than enough to get the “Brady’s too extreme” message out there in the City and ‘burbs and this thing will hopefully be over by October 31.
Just can’t imagine Brady having enough $$$ to counter AND provide a real alternative message (”I’m for Bill?”, huh?).
- VanillaMan - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 3:45 pm:
VanillaMan - Take it easy man, you said “is only registering any kind of enthusiasm on the GOP side”, I wasn’t sure how that fit in with this poll.
It doesn’t fit if I am discussing now, because the poll doesn’t show any enthusiasm.
Sorry, I used too many “!” in that earlier response. It made me sound like a utter doofus, instead of my usual run-of-the-mill doofus.
I wish there was a decent independant candidate.
- Strangelove - Friday, Jul 9, 10 @ 4:22 pm:
–Between labor and Quinn’s own network, Pat should raise more than enough to get the “Brady’s too extreme” message out there in the City and ‘burbs and this thing will hopefully be over by October 31.–
Provided PQ doesn’t do anything crazy like handing out raises to his top staff or declaring he’ll call a session right after the election (with the implication that there will be a tax hike).
Otherwise, you might be on target, MSG.