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Promises, promises

Tuesday, Sep 28, 2010

* Bill Brady made a promise to Rockton voters this week that he can’t possibly keep

“At one point in time this was the tool and dye capital of the world practically and we have an opportunity to move back to that,” says Brady

Yes, all will be flowers and butterflies if Bill Brady is elected. China, Mexico and India will no longer exist and we’ll be just peachy. Keep in mind, however, that the plant he was speaking at moved into Illinois last year.

* Brady also made the same argument that many make about Indiana

But other states are snatching our companies; Brady said Mitch Daniels, Indiana’s governor, comes to Chicago four times a year to recruit businesses to the Hoosier state.

But Indiana ain’t all roses and perfume, either

Indiana’s pool of workers shrank at a faster rate than did those of other states during the national recession, an expert told a committee of legislators and economic development officials Monday.

Graham Toft, of Growth Economics Inc., said this statistic is hurting Indiana’s recovery efforts. […]

Tuft said Indiana’s workforce peaked in January 2009 and since has dropped 140,000 workers – even briefly falling below levels from the 1990s.

“For some reason or another, experienced Hoosier workers are choosing not to stay in the workforce,” Tuft said, noting similar reductions haven’t been seen in other states.

And

As surrounding states are seeing their unemployment rates drop, Indiana’s remains unchanged at 10.2% — the same as it was a year ago.

Plus, we just beat them out on the Navistar deal.

* Illinois Statehouse News has a piece today about Pat Quinn’s Downstate troubles and his recent state excursions throughout the region cutting ribbons on new construction programs. David Yepsen of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University at Carbondale comments

Yepsen said it is going to be “a tough year for Democrats,” especially downstate. He says Quinn’s visits indicate the Democrat’s commitment to that region.

“He could either write off the area or redouble his efforts here,” Yepsen said. “And it looks like he is doubling down.”

If Quinn’s “campaign through governance” is effective, it could spell trouble for Brady.

“Brady needs a good margin,” Yepsen said. “In traditional Illinois elections, the Republican needs to do well downstate and in the suburbs.”

Brady is so far ahead in the region and has so outworked Quinn Downstate that it’ll take a miracle to run the governor’s fortunes around in that region. And I do mean a miracle. A few ribbon cutting ceremonies won’t, um, cut it. And if the governor truly was “doubling down,” he’d be spending campaign money in the region and developing a Downstate message. Right now, his Downstate message is the same as his Chicago message, and that isn’t going to work.

* For some reason or another, the Peoria Journal-Star thinks this election could be more like 1990 than 1994. To prove their point, they re-ran one of their 1990 editorials today, which predicted, among other things, that Democratic US Sen. Paul Simon could be unseated by anti-incumbent fever.

Perhaps they should be clued in a bit…

* President George HW Bush’s average approval rating in October of 1990: 57%

* President Barack Obama’s current average approval rating: 45%

* Number of US House seats lost by the president’s party in 1990: 8

* Number of US Senate seats lost by the president’s party in 1990: 1

Unless literally everybody in the world is wrong, then, no, this isn’t another 1990. Far from it.

* Related…

* Bill Brady Could Lift Death Penalty Moratorium If Elected

* Cohen Asks Voters for Chance to Prove He Can Improve State

* Candidates for Illinois Governor and Lieutenant Governor stop in Rockford

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* Brady Talks Transportation, Whitney Talks Education

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* State AG offices launching investigations into Ally Financial foreclosures

- Posted by Rich Miller        

25 Comments
  1. - Bill F. - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:27 am:

    Thank you for pulling back the curtain on the IL GOP’s mighty Wizard of Oz, Indiana.


  2. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:45 am:

    Capt Fax:
    If you read the PJS edit it ends like this…”The lesson is two-fold. First, there’s really nothing new under the sun, as the complaints today aren’t much different than they were 20 years ago. Second, beware the polls. Sometimes voters surprise us. Who will show up, and who won’t, and how will that determine the outcome five weeks from today?…”
    Perhaps if there was more coverage of campaigns and less poll results “news” voters might have better information.
    BTW is anyone asking NoTaxBill how many of these projects he plans to cancel if in the unlikely event of victory

    Cut Minimum Wage
    Freeze Educator Salaries
    Move For Right to Work
    Cancel Capital Projects

    Sounds like a Working Family Agenda to me


  3. - Cindy Lou - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:45 am:

    This is neither here nor there that pertains to anything…but what’s up with the choice of coloring with Brady’s signs down this way? If the sun is kind and hits them just perfect, not too bad. But if that isn’t happening they appear to show only “Bill Brady” in white letters and when actually smack in front of it muddy red letters inwhich one can barely make out “Governor”. Not very attractive nor attention grabbing.

    With that said, I’ve not passed any Quinn signs as of yet on the main streets…not a one , so if nothing else drivers are seeing “Brady” even if no clue what the sign is all about.


  4. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:56 am:

    Crain’s had a story last week on a nice Chicago pickup of a Tennessee steel supplier looking to expand. About 120 jobs in corporate headquarters.

    From the article:

    –SunCoke determined that “by relocating to an international air travel hub, the company would be better positioned to service the international steelmakers that comprise its existing customer base, pursue growth on a global scale, and tap a broader pool of talent with industry-specific experience,” the release says.–

    Those are all good things. And why, despite the sturm and drang, the Chicago area has the fourth-largest economy in the world, behind Tokyo, New York and Los Angeles.

    And outside the Chicago metro in Illinois is the best farmland in the world plus a network of higher education institutions.

    Plenty of resources to grow on folks if we can get our house in order.

    ttp://www.chicagorealestatedaily.com/article/20100923/CRED03/100929930/tennessee-firm-eyeing-hq-move-to-suburban-chicago


  5. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:02 am:

    tool and dye

    It’s tool and die.

    Work sent overseas is not the primary cause of loss of tool and die work. This work is intense and normally requires the highest of skills. This industry was late to the productivity wave caused by computerization. The decrease in the number of jobs is much more related to productivity gains than off-shoring.

    Areas of improvement include value added work by the shop, and minimizing lead times. But this is a unionized industry which had inflated wages during the boom times. Even though there has been a significant loss of jobs, the labor costs still need restructuring.

    What Brady, or anyone else, can do about this is beyond me.


  6. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:02 am:

    “Practically”?

    Brady said that something was “practically” a fact?

    What is this, a retro way of almost making a statement? Who is writing his stuff, Wally Cleaver?

    I hope this doesn’t catch on.

    “Chicago is practically on the atlantic Ocean with it’s access through the Great Lakes.”
    “Daley was practically a baseball player being a mayor of a city with two professional teams.”
    “I practically balance our state’s budget with my cuts!”

    “As a governor I am practically the ruler of a small Polish village with all the Pols living in Chicago.”


  7. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:06 am:

    - Bill F. - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:27 am:

    “Thank you for pulling back the curtain on the IL GOP’s mighty Wizard of Oz, Indiana.”

    I gotta wonder which state is better positioned to capitalize on the end of the recession (if Obama ever lets it occur). I contend Indiana will be able to leverage the facts they do not have the debt and other problems we see here in Illinois to grow much faster than we will while we sort out the mess in Springfield which will take several years.


  8. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:10 am:

    CircularFiringgSquad,
    You are practically a genius if you weren’t such a regugitating sack of worn out Democractic talking points!

    “working family agenda”…blah, blah, blah!


  9. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:12 am:

    We practically are Indiana.


  10. - Niles Township - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:12 am:

    While I’ve become not such a big fan of Quinn, I am afraid that we will wake and find Brady as our governor just when he wakes up and realizes he needs to actually come up with some specifics.


  11. - OneMan - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:13 am:

    But this is a unionized industry which had inflated wages during the boom times. Even though there has been a significant loss of jobs, the labor costs still need restructuring.

    I think that really varies by area and the type of shop you work in. Lots of these guys work in smaller job shops and most of those places are not union.

    It’s a teachable skill that does not require college that can pay halfway well. The costs are not as much as a driver as the need for their services. That is if you don’t need tools and dies made you don’t need their services. It is relatively hard to export in part because dies require modification and maintenance over time, it can be a bit of an iterative process.


  12. - Pat collins - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:16 am:

    Work sent overseas is not the primary cause of loss of tool and die work

    Sort of. The CUSTOMERS of tool and die work are seeing their work sent overseas, and this reduces the need for that here. Plastic Molding especially has been hard hit.

    Now, for things like Chemicals, etc, that DOES need tool and die, and that is more likely to be killed by regulations as opposed to off-shoring.


  13. - Pat collins - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:18 am:

    It’s a teachable skill that does not require college that can pay halfway well.

    Darn right. I knew a shop, that as part of their training, made the associates plan and cook a lunch for the whole shop, plus whatever customers were in that day.

    I asked the owner, and he told me “I’d rather learn who can’t plan ahead and think, with a 200 dollar lunch, than a $50,000 tool.”


  14. - Adam Smith - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:24 am:

    Digging deep for the Brady snark these days. Brady said we could “move back to” the time when this was the tool and die capital. To me, that seem like he’d like to attract more heavy manufacturing. He didn’t guarantee that if he’s elected all the tool and die jobs would reappear. It’s a reasonable statement.

    Sure, we need tech and service jobs more because they are where the growth is, but there is nothing wrong with also wanting to boost manufacturing.

    I just don’t get why this comment is so egregious.

    Alexi’s ads about Hartmarx indicate a desire to use the government to bully businesses to do what politicians want rather than what is best for the business. Got anything to say about the intellectual validity of THAT argument?


  15. - Quiet Sage - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:27 am:

    The big difference between this year and 1994 is that the national Republican landslide in 1994 came out of the blue. Democrats in Illinois had expected a big loss for Netsch, but they were absolutely shocked that Democratic candidates had crumbled on all levels. In 2010, a Republican landslide has been expected for months. Anticipation changes future reality. The fact that a Republican landslide is expected gives the other side time to react and to counter. For an analogy, look at the stock market, where the conventional wisdom of what will happen next is almost always wrong.


  16. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:30 am:

    –Brady said we could “move back to” the time when this was the tool and die capital.–

    We can’t. The history of the last 150 years or so is rapid, remarkable change for the better, materially and economically. But there are bumps in the road.


  17. - PPHS - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:32 am:

    Pana was the City of Roses, too. Perhaps, he could bring back the greenhouses.


  18. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:32 am:

    Hope and Change by another name. OMG - a candidate inflates what (s)he can do once in office. Stop the presses!


  19. - zatoichi - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:34 am:

    Today’s MSN webpage has a small bit about the 5 worst places to retire. Indiana is one of them with this statement under a nice basketball pic:

    “Though not at the bottom of the pack in any category, Indiana is decidedly below average in nearly all of them. In particular, Hoosier State residents shouldn’t count on home sales to fund their retirements. From 2010 to 2013, home prices there are expected to tumble by an average of 2% a year, according to Moody’s Analytics.

    At the same time, wages won’t pick up the slack from the souring real-estate market. Currently, the average per capita income in Indiana is $34,196, which is solidly below the national level of $39,423.”

    Things are not always so great elsewhere.


  20. - Going nuclear - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:59 am:

    Instead of trying to compete with Indiana and other countries for new tool and die capacity, it might make more sense to help existing IL facilities become more efficient (e.g., use less energy and materials) so that they can rebound and expand more quickly when the economy picks up.


  21. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 12:27 pm:

    –Brady said Mitch Daniels, Indiana’s governor, comes to Chicago four times a year to recruit businesses to the Hoosier state.–

    And enjoy the best a world-class cosmopolitan city has to offer — all on the state dime.

    I like Indy, but it ain’t Chicago.

    Bill Hudnut was the GOP mayor of Indy for 16 years. The first thing he did when he left office was move to Chicago, lol.


  22. - D.P. Gumby - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:26 pm:

    What are the odds that when Gov Brady finally discovers he can’t really do anything w/ the Budget and Finance, he turns to his social agenda to bolster his base–death penalty (human and puppies), abortion, etc.


  23. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:33 pm:

    D.P. Gumby,

    Are you talking about the election or after he is elected governor?


  24. - Ghost - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:56 pm:

    Lets see, Indiana personal income was up .7% 1st quarter 2010, and they rank 48 out of the 50 states for total personal income.

    Il total prsonal income increased 1.07% for the 1st quarter 2010, and we rank 5th fro total personal income….

    it appears IL is a much more profitable place to earn a living. I guess the appeal of Indiana is they are not dead last in income earning.

    http://buffalo.bizjournals.com/buffalo/blog/the_score/2010/09/new_york_drags_in_income_standings.html


  25. - fed up - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:35 pm:

    Well Brady cant make backroom deals with the unions on state time to secure an endorsement so he has to come out with this. At least its legal which is more than Quinn can say for his union deals.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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