Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » GOP poll has Hare behind; PPP poll has Kirk up by four, Obama upside down
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
GOP poll has Hare behind; PPP poll has Kirk up by four, Obama upside down

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2010

* As I told subscribers the other day, I was polled on the 17th Congressional District race this week by The Tarrance Group, which is a GOP pollster. Expect the GOP to jump in with both feet now

Rep. Phil Hare (D-IL), viewed in strong shape at the beginning of the year, now looks to be ins serious trouble, trailing his Republican challenger by one point. […]

Hare trails businessman Bobby Schilling (R) 44% to 43% in a Tarrance Group survey that was conducted Sept. 23-25. When asked if Hare deserved re-election or if it was time for someone else, just 35% of respondents [said] he should be re-elected.

Hare’s own polling has showed this to be a super-close race for a while, so this is no surprise. And the DCCC is now helping Hare

The DCCC has reserved at least $200,000 worth of television time in the Quad-Cities. The Washington Post says it has also reserved time in the Springfield/Decatur market.

No ad is posted yet at the DCCC’s YouTube site. Stay tuned.

* There’s not a lot of news in the latest Senate numbers. Public Policy Polling’s fresh US Senate poll has Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias by four points. Unlike others, PPP actually included both third party candidates that have made it to the ballot. The crosstabs are here. From the pollster

The Illinois Senate race continues to be very close, but because Mark Kirk is doing a better job of consolidating his base than Alexi Giannoulias is he’s taken a small lead after trailing by 2 points on PPP’s previous two polls of the race. Kirk is ahead 40-36 with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones at 8% and Libertarian Mike Labno geting 3%.

Our August poll found Kirk winning 74% of Republicans and Giannoulias getting 72% of Democrats. Now Kirk has expanded his support from his own party to 79% while Giannoulias’ support from his has declined to 68%. Kirk is getting 9% of the Democratic vote while only 2% of Republicans are planning to vote for Giannoulias. Kirk’s double digit lead with independents persists at 41-27.

This continues to be a race between two deeply unpopular candidates. Giannoulias’ favorability is 33/48 and Kirk’s isn’t much better at 33/47. 16% of voters have a negative opinion of both candidates and Kirk leads Giannoulias 35-16 with them, accounting for most of his overall lead. For many swing voters this is going to come down to choosing who they see as the lesser of two evils and right now Kirk is winning that vote.

A big factor to watch moving forward is whether Jones, the Green Party candidate, can maintain his support in the final 5 weeks as it becomes more clear that votes for him could push this race into the Republican column. On one hand Jones’ voters strongly dislike Giannoulias- 56% see him unfavorably to only 21% with a positive opinion. On the other hand they are a strongly Democratic leaning lot with 65% of them having voted for Barack Obama to only 28% who were McCain voters. If Jones fades Giannoulias will gain but if his support remains steady that’s going to be a big plus for Kirk.

Another factor that could result in the race tightening further as voters more firmly make up their minds is that 46% of the undecideds are Democrats compared to 27% who are Republicans and 27% who are independents. If those folks end up ‘coming home,’ that will move Giannoulias even closer.

This continues to be one of the closest- and depressing- Senate races in the country. Only 39% of voters say they’re excited about who they’re voting for with 45% saying they wish someone else was running. This is one race where you may end up seeing an enthusiasm gap on both sides.

* Methodology…

PPP surveyed 470 likely Illinois voters from September 23rd to 26th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%.

* As I told subscribers this morning, PPP also found that President Obama is upside down in his home state

Barack Obama’s approval numbers have dropped into negative territory even with likely voters in his home state. 44% approve of the job he’s doing while 49% say they disapprove.

Obama’s home state approval numbers had before avoided some of the trends dragging down his numbers in other states but that’s no longer the case. Independents strongly disapprove of him with just 35% feeling he’s doing a good job to 57% unhappy. Whatever support he may have maintained with Republicans has now evaporated, with only 3% of them approving of him. And although his 80/12 spread with Democrats is still pretty solid it’s not what it had been previously.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 12:43 pm:

    Looks like we may be in for another round or “Mob Banker” since WGN is again questioning Alexi’s resume. He either worked at the bank when the most controversial loans were made, or claimed he worked there when he actually didn’t so he could claim a huge IRS deduction. See here:,0,7764777.story

  2. - shore - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 12:52 pm:

    To her credit, jan schakowsky has been running a serious campaign this summer/fall, I can’t understand why someone like hare would take anything for granted.

    Some political pro needs to come up with a meter that translates what 200k spent in each media market of the state translates into because 200k downstate, I would think buys a lot more ads than 200k in chicago. If you ever teach a class on illinois politics, I would put this in the users manual.

  3. - Louis Howe - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 1:00 pm:

    The 17th District is constructed in such a gerrymandered fashion that the layout captures nearly every democratic area (except Peoria) in central and western Illinois, however, the multiple media markets and fractured community of interests make it tough to send a coherent message and establish deep candidate awareness. Throw in the facts that Phil didn’t have a real contested voter 2006 primary (he was selected by Democratic Precinct Committeemen) and didn’t have any opponent in 2008, and Hare is running with all the negatives of an incumbent without the benefits of previous campaign driven awareness.

    All polling is questionable in this year’s depressed Democratic Party turnout election. That’s why Hare needs to be up 8 to 10 points going into Election Day.

  4. - Ray del Camino - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 1:11 pm:

    Keep in mind this small sample size–less than 500–when talking about support from subgroups of Dems, Reps, and Indies. Comparing groups of less than 200 from survey to survey is very problematic. A decline from 72% to 68% among Dems for Alexi, for example, doesn’t take into account a ± 7 point margin for error of there are, say, 200 Dems in each survey. That “movement” may be nothing but random error.

  5. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 1:12 pm:


    The MediaMeter® is a great idea. If you want to go old school, this is a “fun” read for some background on DMA and politics in Illinois (even fairly current from 2009):

  6. - D.P. Gumby - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 1:21 pm:

    None of this would be nearly as disheartening if any of the opponents to the incumbents were actually substantively any more intelligent or superior to said incumbents…however, in most cases they are even bigger hacks…go figure.

  7. - bored now - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 1:26 pm:

    the ppp’s conclusion is pretty much what i’m finding. alexi has not consolidated his base to the same degree as kirk, and the question is, will those voters come home or stay at home on election day? BUT, his standing among democrats has markedly improved (which one assumes is why the tribune has decided to go after him in their current jihad). i am growing increasingly confident, simply because alexi is doing what he has to do and kirk is, well, still kirk. he’d love to be our senator if someone would just hand him the job. but it’s clear that he won’t work too hard for it.

    will he even show up at the few debates he’s deigned to schedule? i’m doubtful. if he can’t handle the simple questions of downstate voters who are inclined to vote for him, and he flees from the press (through a kitchen!) like a coward, it’s really hard to see how he doesn’t feign some excuse to miss these highly publicized, much anticipated appearances.

    but, rest assured, he will have (by that time) come up with a really fabulous excuse, one that makes him look like the hero he imagines himself to be! mark kirk has definitely established that he’s the best liar in politics today…

  8. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 1:46 pm:

    bored now,

    If you look at the cross-tabs, Kirk’s recent improvement can partially be explained by Alexi’s loss of support among Democrats, and the effects of the Green party candidate.

    PPP implies Obama is having an effect on races all across the US. Here in Illinois, for the first time, Obama is underwater, which would indicate that the trends are not in Alexi’s favor.

    Currently, moderates comprise an extremely large Undecided voting block. It remains to be seen whether Kirk’s moderate cred comes through, and the effect of Obama’s upcoming appearances (not currently a fan of moderates, even in Illinois) on Alexi’s numbers. In previous months, I would have said that Obama would help Alexi, but it seems that Obama is becoming toxic. Alexi would be better served with Clinton helping him than his old b-ball buddy.

    Notice also that a larger portion of Alexi’s base wishes there was a different candidate to vote for than that of Kirk’s. This shows greater voter dissatisfaction with Alexi, which may equate to less turnout, than with Kirk, who appears to be solidifying his base, perhaps because of his downstate swing.

    Kirk is polling unusually strong among blacks and hispanics. More bad news for Alexi.

    There is plenty of time left in this race, and I don’t count Alexi out by any means. But your confidence in Alexi should match mine in Kirk. I am skeptical of the strength of either candidate. But the current polling should worry Alexi more than it should Kirk.

  9. - Responsa - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 2:07 pm:

    Uh oh, looks like bored now is going to have to retire his famous “favorite son” talking point.

  10. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 2:23 pm:

    Hare is really hard to like. He acts like he built Lane’s cozlition of support instead of just having it fall upon his lap. His quickly displayed irritation at those who question him is not easily forgotten. Hare may have the 17th gerrymandered for a Democrat, but not for a Democrat who ranks number 406 out of his House collegues in effectiveness. Hare just isn’t very good dealing with voters. He isn’t a good politician on the stump. Naturally he is threatened, eventually even Democrats get tired of a sloppy guy and won’t return him to office.

    I expect him to be shown the door. He earned the boot aiming for his butt.

  11. - Team Sleep - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 2:44 pm:

    Hare had a cakewalk of a race in 2006, which also coincided with a bad Republican year. He had NO opponent in 2008. He is not a great campaigner. I’m not going to throw him under the bus and allege that his staff is incapable. I just don’t think Mr. Hare is Congressional material.

  12. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 4:38 pm:

    Hare is not hard to like; he’s like any other working stiff you might find at the UAW Hall, VFW or American Legion in Rock Island and Moline.

    They ran TV weathermen and anchors at Lane Evans for years. The district rejected them.

    Great part of the state, by the way. Belgian Village, RIBCO, Harold’s on the Rock, and the the mighty Mississippi.

  13. - bored now - Wednesday, Sep 29, 10 @ 6:04 pm:

    Responsa: i usually wait for more than one indicator that someone is down or up. the president’s favorability is down, but he is still illinois’ favorite son.

    Cincinnatus: i haven’t looked at the crosstabs yet. i have 8 polls sitting in front of me right now, and i’ll get to them as i’m able. i’m sorta busy right now, and probably a little over-extended. but i certainly appreciate y’alls efforts to get behind the numbers!

  14. - Cincinnatus - Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 8:15 am:

    bored now,

    I asked RM to post this for general consumption. As a wonk, you may enjoy it:

  15. - bored now - Thursday, Sep 30, 10 @ 9:07 am:

    i saw that. thanks…

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Taking a sick day
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...









* Statehouse bills would increase drivers’ awaren.....
* McCann launches conservative bid; weirdness beg.....
* Lt. gov. to tour Continental Tire in Mt. Vernon.....

* The Latest: Sheriff: Suspect's firearms card was revoked
* Aurora native to present premiere of short film
* The Latest: Shooting suspect wanted to meet with Trump
* Church elders renew probe of founder's alleged misconduct
* Chicago sues 2 suburban towns millions owed for water
* 1868 Olympic champ to give Eureka commencement address
* Michigan center accused of honoring patients' racist demands
* July trial for Illinois man charged in sister-in-law's death
* Lake County courts to switch to online filing system in May
* EXCHANGE: Teens taught to plant, tend their own flowerpots

* Statehouse bills would increase drivers' awareness of bike safety
* Proposal would let more voters try to cut property taxes
* Illinois Lottery sells tickets for instant games after top prizes are gone
* Government consolidation efforts gain traction in General Assembly
* Bill: Put therapists, not armed security, in Illinois schools
* Report: Improvements to veterans home could cost $265M
* Rauner's point person on Legionnaires' outbreak makes $20K monthly
* Presidential library publishes digital archive of papers from Lincoln's first 33 years
* McCann to run for governor as Conservative Party candidate
* Duckworth, daughter make Senate history

* Chicago's largest privately held companies
* Yes, we need the United Way
* Techie Neal Sales-Griffin takes aim at Emanuel
* Corrections
* The 0.3%: Million-dollar earners in Illinois

* Man shot in South Austin
* White Sox reliever Danny Farquhar has another surgery to relieve swelling
* Man shot in head while driving in West Humboldt Park
* Man and boy shot in South Austin
* Memorial service held for woman killed in Southwest flight
* 2 men shot in Lawndale
* Javy Baez still steams over DJ LeMahieu flap after Cubs’ victory
* Shooter killed man in 2015 for selling weed on his ‘territory’: prosecutors
* Kris Bryant appears to avoid concussion in Cubs’ bruising 9-7 win over Rockies
* Adam L. Jahns: Whom the Bears should draft with their first-round pick Thursday

* Suspect in Tennessee Waffle House shooting had guns seized after arrest near White House last year
* ‘Westworld’ Episode 1 recap: 5 things to know about ‘Journey Into Night’ and the start of Season 2
* After backlash, Shania Twain apologizes for saying she would have voted for Trump
* Wisconsin is the GOP model for ‘welfare reform.’ But as work requirements grow, so does one family’s desperation.
* At least 8 wounded in Chicago shootings
* Dorothy Brown brushes aside federal probe, announces run for Chicago mayor
* Former presidents, first ladies pose for photo at Barbara Bush's funeral
* Cubs hold on for wild win over Rockies after Kris Bryant beaning
* Cubs working with Yu Darvish to solve his 5th-inning struggles
* 'Harry Potter and the Cursed Child' opens on Broadway, the J.K. Rowling magic now passed between generations

» At South Side Cemetery, A Gathering For Confederate Descendants – And Protesters
» Official: Pop Tax Repeal Could Mean Late Tax Bills, Budget Headaches
» Casino Sale Raises Questions About A Windfall - Or A Conflict - For Pritzker
» Eliminating Golden Parachutes in Illinois; Children’s Author M.J. Mouton; Illinois Budget
» Obamacare Protection Measure Fails in Illinois House
» State Week: McCann Makes Three; Blagojevich Makes Appeal; Preckwinkle Makes History
» WBEZ’s Chicago and Illinois News Roundup: April 20, 2018
» From Columbine To Parkland: Art And Activism
» Web Extra, The Week in Review: Is there a Newspaper War in Chicago?
» The Week in Review: Dorothy Brown Enters Mayoral Race

* George Will: Gorsuch strikes blow against administrative state
* Statehouse bills would increase drivers' awareness of bike safety
* Proposal would let more voters try to cut property taxes
* Illinois Lottery sells tickets for instant games after top prizes are gone
* Government consolidation efforts gain traction in General Assembly
* Statehouse Insider: Governor's race could set records beyond spending
* Guest View: Doing nothing on transportation funding is no longer an option
* Our View: Let the people vote on fair maps
* United Way: Dedicated volunteers affect lives every day
* Guest View: A nation at risk

* A list of fundraising events in central Illinois, April 23
* Random Acts of Kindness: Shopper's courtesy leads to bouquet of tulips
* Two taken to hospital after car flips into ditch in Belleville
* Crash reported near Oakwood
* He told police he witnessed a robbery, but surveillance video showed otherwise
* Church gifts the Decatur community with the 'Give Back'
* 'A supportive community': Event raises awareness of medical cannabis use
* After tragedy, Central Illinois mothers bring heart initiative to life
* Nashville police search for Waffle House shooting suspect
* At least four dead after shooting at Tennessee Waffle House

* Ex-Illinois man sought after 4 dead in Waffle House shooting in Tennessee
* Cubs' Kris Bryant hit on helmet by pitch, leaves game
* Beyond cookies: Thousands of girls are becoming Cub Scouts
* Scouting report: White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
* White Sox downplay Moncada controversy

* Republicans praise Ryan: 'He's done a good...
* Republicans praise Ryan: 'He's done a good...
* Rep. Randy Hultgren recognizes Loyola men'...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren visits McHenry's Pi...
* Are Illinois Congressmen safe in wake of D...
* It's official: If you prepaid your propert...
* A quick look at a few congressional races ...
* Underwood hopes winning primary formula ca...
* House approves Curbelo, Hultgren bill prot...
* Democrats aim to turn Obamacare into asset...

* Booker, Durbin, Krishnamoorthi Introduce H......
* Durbin, Duckworth demand accounting of All......
* Area US senators' votes on Trump nominatio......
* What's the Deal With Chuck Schumer's Pot B......
* Durbin, Duckworth press Allegiant for flig......

* Few mothers could do what Tammy Duckworth ......
* What Tammy Duckworth really just taught us...
* Tammy Duckworth becomes first senator to v......
* Four stories that mattered this week, expl......
* 4 stories that mattered this week, explained...

* Dried scallops the key ingredient in chef C.J. Jacobson's 'Mediterranean XO sauce' [VIDEO]
* Weed Week: Get in the mood for 4/20 with these photos by Chicagoans dedicated to legal weed
* 5 Technology Tools in the Higher Education Classroom
* Deep Learning Models That Predict Conflicts In Online Communities
* Why Is Online Learning Seeing a Surge in Popularity?
* Why an iTunes Model for Online Learning Is Bad for Educators
* Microsoft launches new online training courses for aspiring AI engineers
* Are campus innovation centers serving all students?
* Digital Learning Strategies for Rural America: A Scan of Policy and Practice in K-12 Education
* With FCC approval, all systems are go for Starlink global internet

* IEMA Highlights Role of Volunteers in Disasters
* Governor Rauner activates State Emergency Operations Center in Springfield
* February Flooding Information
* IEMA Urges People to Prepare for Severe Weather
* Governor issues state disaster proclamation for flooding in Iroquois, Kankakee, Vermilion Counties

* Verizon software update turns LG V30 into LG V30 ThinQ
* The Meizu 15 series is powered by Samsung displays and an Exynos chipset
* Kogan Mobile climbs toward AU$3.5m quarterly profit
* Amazon India starts pre-sales push for OnePlus 6
* ​What's the most popular Linux of them all?
* Commerce Department to accept evidence from ZTE in “informal procedures”
* Deal: 3 years of SelectTV is now only $29

* White Sox Minor League Update: April 22, 2018
* Lopez strong; bullpen, bats falter against Astros
* Lopez strong; bullpen, bats falter against Astros
* Lopez strong; bullpen, bats falter against Astros
* Stros sweep, with 7-1 win
* South Side Sox Roster Ranking: Round 17
* South Side Sox Prospect Vote: Round 17

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller