* WLS Radio claimed today that Gov. Pat Quinn “plays the terrorist card on election eve.” Here’s the quote they’re using…
“I think we want to tell the terrorists that Democracy is alive and well in Illinois, the Land of Lincoln, government of the people. The best way for the people to speak is at the ballot box,” Quinn said.
The Quinn campaign’s response…
The Governor isn’t ‘playing’ any card. In response to Friday’s events, he’s also spoken about the necessity of people turning out to vote to preserve our robust democracy. Voting is all about making your voice heard. He’s being asked about it by reporters and by voters along the campaign trail.
It sounds to me like Quinn was asked about terrorism and responded. We’ll see. That’s a horrible headline on the day before the election, however.
* Speaking of Quinn, his vanquished primary opponent Dan Hynes did a robocall for the governor. According to the campaign, this is going out to Hynes’ primary supporters…
* Roe Conn had Tony Peraica and his Democratic opponent McCook Mayor Jeff Tobolski on his show today to talk about Peraica’s Saturday night arrest. You can go to their site to listen or click the image below…
* The Alexi Giannoulias campaign just did something a bit different. It has begun sending Freedom of Information Act Requests to county clerks. Read the campaign’s Champaign County request by clicking here. I followed up with an e-mail to Champaign County Clerk Mark Shelden, asking him whether he’d ever seen something like this before. Here is Clerk Shelden’s response…
Never been done before in my 13 years.
A little more background. Section 302 of HAVA requires that provisionals be confidential. I believe that request is not legal.
The rest is very interesting. In a discovery recount, the requester can ask for these items for 25% of all precincts. I’ve often wondered what would happen should someone FOIA it. Now we’re finding out. A very strong argument can be made that the section of the election code regarding discovery recounts trumps FOIA.
None of the clerks are going to deal with this pre election. And I’m sure we’re all hoping, more than even before, that a 2-3 point win on either side makes the issue go away.
.“I don’t interpret it very kindly. I know what our own polls show, and I think we’re surging. I’ve seen that, not just in our own poll, but three or four others. I think this past week, we’ve surged every day,” the governor told reporters this morning at Midway Airport.
* And a big, big roundup…
* US mid-term elections: A campaign in the shadow of terror
Mind you, requests aren’t the same as actual absentee votes. They define independents as people who didn’t vote in the primary or who have bounced around in the past three primaries. The county-by-county numbers are here.
This is a far better showing for Republicans than in the past. And they’ll probably get the majority of those independents as well.
[I misunderstood the IMA e-mail and had to rewrite the above section. The numbers the IMA gave me today are the grand totals.]
The record for money raised by candidates for governor in an Illinois election has been shattered by 2010 candidates. […]
Republican Bill Brady tops the chart at $15.1 million, followed closely by Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn at $13.2 million. Independent Scott Lee Cohen reports $3.3 million, Green nominee Rich Whitney shows $45,000 and Libertarian Lex Green reports $24,000
Four years ago, Rod Blagojevich had about $17 million for the fall campaign, including his cash on hand at the end of June. This is the same way the ICPR figured this year’s numbers. But Blagojevich started running TV ads against Judy Baar Topinka in April. He spent almost $3.7 million on media buys between April 1 and the end of June and another $173K in mail. So, his actual “fall” spending was about $21 million.
Plus, there was no millionaire independent spending money hand over fist like this year. So, yeah, it’s a record on paper, but that isn’t the entire story.
Also, the Republican Governors Association accounts for a third of Brady’s cash.
* Back on October 20th, Fox News reported that Illinois Republicans have outperformed every other state party in terms of voter contact. The Republicans’ Illinois Victory program has called “almost three million” voters since the summer, the station reported. The party posted the video on its YouTube site with the headline: “FNC: Nearly 3 Million Calls by Illinois Victory! ” Watch…
* And here’s Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady today…
“We’ve stayed under the radar until now,” said Illinois GOP Chairman Pat Brady. “But we lead every other state in the number of phone calls we’ve made — 4.4 Million. And we’ve identified 2.5 million Republican voters.”
That means they’ve made over 100,000 calls a day since October 20th. Hmm. But how many are completed calls? I decided to check with the state party this afternoon.
Of those 4.4 million calls, a bit under 2 million were actually completed. Of those, they’ve identified the leanings of a little over 929,000 people, whether those be Republican, Democrat or whatever. They have a GOTV universe, they say, of 2.5 million. That would include hard “Rs” who’ve voted in primaries.
Statehouse pols have obligated so many of your tax dollars to prop up their bureaucracy and assure themselves of sweet retirement that there’s no money to pay the caretakers of our sick, disabled and mentally handicapped citizens. Those citizens can’t afford lobbyists.
Illinois has the lowest state employee per capita ratio in the nation. Propping up the “bureacracy” is only a real problem in their minds.
And the “caretakers” of our sick, disabled and mentally handicapped citizens pretty much all have lobbyists, contrary to the Tribune. The Illinois Hospital Association, the Illinois Council on Long Term Care, Illinois State Medical Society, Illinois Nurses Association, Lutheran Social Services, SEIU, Voices for Illinois Children, The ARC of Illinois, Illinois Association of Rehabilitation Facilities, National Association of Social Workers, United Cerebral Palsy of Illinois, Illinois Networks of Centers for Independent Living, the Illinois Association of Public Health Administrators, the Illinois Cannabis Patients Association… Shall I go on?
Angry people don’t think. And the Tribune editorial board is a good case in point.
The Illinois State Universities Retirement System and the Illinois State Employees’ Retirement System, two of the three largest funds, each reduced their assumed annualized rate of return to 7.75 percent, from 8.50 percent, while the much smaller Illinois Judges’ Retirement System lowered its goal to 7 percent, from 8 percent. […]
For the university pension fund, the change will push its liability level up by $2.4 billion, or more than 8 percent, to $30.1 billion, which in turn will reduce its funded level to 40.24 percent, from 43.75 percent. And the state’s annual contribution will rise by nearly $100 million, or more than 11 percent, to $980 million, according to William Mabe, executive director of the university pension system.
Yes, the move pushes up the unfunded liability. But by lowering the expected annual rate of return, that means the interest rate the state pays to the pension funds for our unfunded liability amount is also lowered. The magic of compound interest means that, over time, this may actually save the state some cash.
Can Twitter predict elections? New media guru Dan Zarrella says yes, Twitter can. He checked out a random sampling of recent campaigns and compared which candidates had the most Twitter followers, and in 71% of the races, the one with the most Twitter followers won. So we began checking out Illinois races to see if Zarrella’s theory can be right. Is Twitter that influential? Or does Twitter simply reflect “the word on the street” and thus, the “votes in the polls”?
If Twitter numbers indicate anything in Illinois gubernatorial race, Bill Brady’s walking away with that one. “Bill_Brady” shows 1888 Twitter followers and “ILGovPatQuinn” shows only 10 followers. A spoof, “PatQuinnsBrain” has more followers than the governor’s does. We couldn’t find a campaign account for Quinn in a quick browse, so, it doesn’t look good for Quinn if Twitter numbers matter.
* Bill Brady says he will fire at least 300 Rod Blagojevich holdovers if elected. However, the House’s “fumigation bill” targeted 750 employees…
The Illinois House voted unanimously last year for a “fumigation” bill introduced by Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, to remove about 750 employees who are “double-exempt.” The employees are not covered by civil service and are not protected by U.S. Supreme Court decisions against patronage firing. […]
Brady said Saturday the number of targeted appointees is “at least 300, if not more.”
Republicans continue to lead the races for both Governor and Senator in Illinois, albeit by close margins. Mark Kirk is ahead of Alexi Giannoulias 46-42 for the state’s open Senate seat and Bill Brady is ahead of Pat Quinn 45-40 for Governor.
There are three main reasons Republicans are headed for big gains across the country this year and the Illinois races exemplify all three of them:
-Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP. Kirk leads Giannoulias 46-31 with them and Brady has a 45-27 advantage over Quinn with them.
-Republican voters are much more unified around their candidates this year than Democrats are. 87% of GOP identifiers are planning to vote for Kirk while only 78% of Democrats are planning to vote for Giannoulias. In the Governor’s race 86% of Republicans support Brady while Quinn’s only getting 75% support from his party.
-Republican voters are much more likely to head to the polls this year than Democrats. In 2008 Barack Obama won Illinois by 25 points. Those who say they’re likely to vote this year only supported him by 14 points. That’s a strong indication that many of the voters who were a part of the Obama ‘wave’ are staying at home this year.
No matter who wins either of these races Illinois voters will be left with a Governor and Senator that they don’t like. Giannoulias’ favorability is 35/49, Kirk’s isn’t much better at 39/45. Quinn’s approval is 32/54 and that’s a good thing for Brady because voters don’t like him either, giving him a favorability of 39/45.
The presence of the third party candidates in the race seems to really be hurting Giannoulias. In a straight head to head between him and Kirk he trails by only a 46-45 margin. But a fair number of progressive voters who don’t like Giannoulias but can’t bring themselves to vote for Kirk are supporting the minor candidates in the contest.
As for Quinn he’s made an impressive comeback over the course of the campaign and his prospects certainly look a lot better than they did back in the spring and summer. But at the end of the day it’s an open question whether an incumbent Governor with a 32% approval rating can win reelection, no matter how blue their state or weak their opponent.
An Anzalone Liszt Research poll taken for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign committee from Oct. 27 and 28 shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leading Republican Mark Kirk 39 percent to 37 percent, a statistical tie since the poll had a margin of error of 4.9 points.
The same poll of 400 likely voters found Libertarian candidate Michael Labo with 4 percent, Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones with 3 percent, and 16 percent of voters undecided. It’s a small shift from the Anzalone Liszt poll taken Oct. 20 to 24, which showed Giannoulias with 38 percent and Kirk with 36 percent.
…Adding… Please, ignore this stupid YouGov “poll.” First, it’s not a poll. It’s an opt-in Internet survey. Second, they only allow the choice of two candidates in each race. This is a multi-candidate race. PPP noted, for instance, that the third partiers were taking votes away from Giannoulias. Either way, though, this is not a poll. Repeat: This YouGov thing is not a poll.
Rep. Mark Kirk doubled his 2-point lead in last week’s Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, and now leads Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias 46 percent to 42 percent.
Giannoulias continues to suffer from Democratic defections to Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, who drew 6 percent support, including 8 percent of Democrats.
In the state’s gubernatorial election, Republican state Sen. Bill Brady added a point to his margin over incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn from last week’s poll. Brady now leads Quinn by 6 points, 44 percent to 38 percent. In this race, the Democrat is suffering at the hands of two minor candidates, the Green Party’s Rich Whitney and independent Scott Lee Cohen.
Whitney and Cohen are taking a combined 10 percent of the vote, largely from Democrats or liberal-leaning voters. Cohen, a successful pawnbroker, won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor but was chased out of the race by Quinn and others after allegations of domestic violence emerged.
The older ad seems to have been shot in much softer light than the new ad, which was shot in half shadow. The old ad was filmed in a home. The new spot was shot in front of a dark backdrop. The background music behind the primary ad helped make the spot more emotional. Quinn mentioned Dan Hynes by name back then, no such mention of Bill Brady now. His veterans work was played up before, but it’s almost all about “jobs” now.
I think the primary ad was better. Back then, it made me sit up and take notice. This new one leaves me sorta empty inside. Your thoughts?
He’s a good actor and really has a presence on TV. He’s also a convicted liar. I love pistachios, but no more will my lips touch them.
* Speaking of the criminal, Pat Quinn’s campaign posted audio of Blagojevich telling WBBM Radio years ago that Quinn is “not a member” of his administration. Listen…
*** UPDATE *** I don’t know why, but I kept forgetting during the weekend to post this radio spot the president cut for Giannoulias…
* It’s the day before the election. You’ve seen all the polling, but now we have some prognostications.
Bernie Schoenburg picked Pat Quinn and Mark Kirk to win, as well as Phil Hare. Kurt Erickson chose Bill Brady as the winner. Peter Brown of Quinnipac said Mark Kirk is slightly favored. Russ Stewart picked Bill Brady and Mark Kirk and chose Bobby Schilling over Hare as well as Bob Dold over Dan Seals. Chris Krug picked Quinn and Giannoulias, plus Melissa Bean over Joe Walsh. Laura Washington says get ready for a long night. 538 projects Kirk, Brady, Seals, Bean, Hultgren and Schilling. Zorn appears to predict Brady.
* The Question: Who are your final picks to click on election day? Explain.
The federal investigation dubbed “Operation Crooked Code” so far has led to the convictions of 21 people — including 15 city building and zoning inspectors. The 21st conviction came just last Thursday, when a federal jury convicted developer Dumitru Curescu of bribery.
Despite those successful cases, Crooked Code hasn’t been as high-profile as investigations of the city’s Hired Truck Program or city hiring or the Operation Silver Shovel probe, largely because it involves corruption on a smaller scale — rank-and-file city workers taking bribes to overlook building-code violations on neighborhood housing projects.
All of the towns in The Beacon-News circulation area were above the national and state averages for returning the census forms by mail. Sugar Grove and Geneva had the highest rate of return at 87 percent; Aurora had the lowest rate at 77 percent.
A proposal by Cook County Board president Todd Stroger calling for a change in the way the medical examiner is appointed has commissioners puzzled. […]
Trouble is, according to the medical examiner’s Web site, this already is the case in Cook County. And it’s been that way since the mid 70’s.
* Race for obscure post tests Chicago-style politics
The race for the obscure but powerful post of county assessor pits an old-school Democratic Party stalwart criticized for helping hire family members to government jobs and accused of arranging tax breaks for friends against a self-styled reformer who worked as Mayor Richard Daley’s chief of staff.
* My syndicated newspaper column is incredibly difficult to write the Friday before an election, when it’s due. Most of the dailies publish it before election day, but several weeklies run it on Wednesday or Thursday. So, I have to come up with a “timeless” topic. I’ve been meaning to do this column for years, but never got around to it. Since I needed a topic that would still be valid no matter who won tomorrow, I pulled it off the back burner…
I will never forget the night Paul Lis was fired.
My parents were at my house, but I refused to budge from my barstool because I couldn’t miss this. Not for them. Not for anybody.
Lis was a bigtime political fixer back then. He has known just about everybody who was anybody in Illinois and Chicago politics. He’s been an informal adviser to many of the old top dogs, and at the time he was fired he was working for Gov. George Ryan, Senate President Pate Philip and House Republican Leader Lee Daniels. Ryan was trying to pass a bill to toughen an assault weapons law, but Philip and Daniels were having none of it.
Lis was siding with Ryan, but Philip, a legendary conservative who loved his guns, was furious at both the governor and Lis, whom Philip falsely blamed for hatching the idea. When Pate strolled into the tavern, I figured things were about to explode. And then Pate stomped right up to Lis and after a brief and heated conversation announced that Lis was fired.
“You can’t fire me!” Lis roared back, adding that, technically, he reported to Philip’s chief of staff and campaign manager.
Pate insisted that he could, indeed, fire Lis, and a series of unprintable expletives were exchanged. The entire bar was silent as everyone watched this extraordinary event unfold. A Senate President is not often yelled at in public, at least not in Springfield.
Lis has always been well known in political circles for his sharp tongue. He loves his cigars and in the old days would play with his false teeth while he talked. He doesn’t care a whit what you think of him. And he loves humbling the haughty.
But Lis is also one of the brightest guys around. The truly smart people understand this, and they listen to him even when they totally disagree.
Lis tried to warn George Ryan over and over about the sort of people the doomed governor surrounded himself with. Ryan listened on every other topic but this one, probably to his undying chagrin.
A born contrarian, Lis would usually argue the other side of issues with Ryan just to make sure that the positions Ryan eventually took were well thought out. He describes his role as “the skeptic in the room who had to be persuaded.” Lis would also regularly burst into Ryan’s office when he thought the governor was making a mistake.
“Strength,” Lis says, “Is the ability to advance your agenda.” And when you fail to get things done, you look weak, no matter the reason.
Gov. Pat Quinn is a prime example. Quinn operated with huge Democratic majorities in both legislative chambers. But too often Quinn and his people tried to push proposals “and then were forced to abandon them because they had not done their homework,” Lis complains. He’s right. Rod Blagojevich had the same problem with surrounding himself with enabling know-nothings. They let him do whatever he wanted, right up until his arrest and impeachment.
Quinn, Lis says, never had the opportunity to really grow. He went from one low-level government job to another and then was suddenly thrust into the governorship. And the “people who enabled him in his lesser positions, continued to enable him,” Lis grumbles.
He has the same fears about lack of growth regarding Quinn’s Republican opponent Bill Brady, who has always been basically a backbench legislator without any real governmental responsibilities. To say the least, Lis is not optimistic about the future.
I always figured Pate Philip would hire Lis back, but he didn’t and as a result he was never quite the same leader he’d been. If George Ryan had listened to Lis more, he might not be in prison today.
The point is, whoever our new governor is (I’m writing this before election day), he needs to hire at least one crazy, brilliant, experienced, fearless contrarian like Paul Lis and then listen. He doesn’t have to agree, but he must listen.
Paul says he’s too old for the task, and he’s now married to a wonderful woman. If you’re going to do that job, Lis says, you have to be single. A spouse might not understand that your boss fired you after you called him a freaking half-wit at the top of your lungs while your false teeth fell to the barroom floor.
