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*** UPDATED x1 - Gingrich takes the bait *** Another phony “controversy” has the Interwebtubes in a tizzy

Tuesday, Nov 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Check out the right-leaning blogs today and you’ll see a huge number of posts that more than just suggest the Democrats are plotting to deny Republican Mark Kirk his rightful place in the US Senate. A representative sample…

* Illinois: We can’t certify Mark Kirk’s win until after Thanksgiving because of “paperwork”: And yet, despite there being zero doubt as to who won, “paperwork” means Kirk won’t join the Senate until late November at the earliest. I’m not sure which is worse — the thought that Illinois Democrats are purposely dragging their feet to keep Kirk out of the chamber so that he can’t block lame-duck Democratic legislation or the thought that they’re not dragging their feet and this really is the fastest they can move.

* Surprise: Illinois “Paperwork” Backlog Delays Seating Mark Kirk Prior to Senate Lame Duck Session

* Mark Kirk stopped from taking Senate Seat to give Burris power to vote on Lame Duck Agenda: Despite the voice of the people in this pivotal race, the democratic party machine that runs Illinois is attempting to hold up Kirk’s appointment to the Senate seat so that Roland Burris, never elected, appointed by Rod Blagojevich, can help Barack Obama pass his agenda to fundamentally transform America.

* OUTRAGE: Illinois Demorats Delay Seating Sen. Kirk: The state says they cannot seat him until after Thanksgiving due to paperwork. Yeah, riiiiight. And that even though Kirk won by more the 70,000 votes and his opponent has graciously conceded.

* What Arrant Squid Nonsense: Illinois State “Paperwork” to Delay Kirk’s Swearing in Until Dec. 3—Keeping Unelected Dem Burris in the Senate!: Ha-ha-ho-ho…how very coincidental. This is the Dems’ way of ratifying the new Obama-proclaimed era of cooperation. And the spineless media will find oodles of justification for this Squid-manufactured atrocity.

* Shocker: Illinois Dragging Feet On Certifying Election Of Republican Senator

* A Great Example of What I Hate About Democrats

Whew! That’s a lot of yucky bile. And that handful of posts barely skims the surface of the indignant blogtastic outrage.

And, by the way, it’s all completely false.

* All the hoo-ha is based on a fatally flawed AP brief

Illinois Republican Mark Kirk won’t be seated in the U.S. Senate in time for the start of the lame duck session of Congress this month - unlike two other newly elected senators.

The session begins Nov. 15. But state officials say the paperwork officially declaring Kirk the winner of the Senate race won’t be delivered until Nov. 29.

That should still allow Kirk to participate in two weeks of the session in December.

* OK, first of all, way back in July the judge who ordered the special election gave the Illinois State Board of Elections until November 24th to certify the special. This schedule has been in place a very long time, before anyone knew that Kirk would be elected.

* Secondly, the Illinois State Board of Elections actually plans to certify the election a day early, according to an official I just spoke with. They’re gonna do it on the 23rd, not the 24th.

* Thirdly, the Senate is recessing its lame duck session during the entire week of the 23rd because of Thanksgiving. The Senate won’t restart the session until November 29th.

* And fourthly - and most importantly - Secretary of State Jesse White’s office claims the AP misquoted them. What they said was they intend to process the paperwork immediately and will make sure that it gets into the hands of the proper DC authorities in plenty of time for the first day of the restarted lame duck session on the 29th. Between the 23rd and the 29th lies Thanksgiving, remember. Things can happen. That’s why they stressed they want to make extra special sure that Kirk is sworn in on or before the 29th.

* So, to sum up, the schedule that was set way back in July is still on track. The State Board of Elections is actually pushing up the ordered date by a full day. The AP screwed up. The SoS will expedite matters. Mark Kirk will be sworn in by the time the Senate reconvenes on Monday, November 29th.

Also, I’m not sure where Tom Roeser found that December 3rd date, but he’s way off.

*** UPDATE *** And right on schedule, WLS allows Newt Gingrich to push this phony story into the bloodstream

Gingrich said the move to seat Democrats Chris Coons of Delaware and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and not Kirk was a prime example of a “really corrupt machine style.”

“That is such an outrageously corrupt and dishonest position that even Harry Reid ought to be ashamed of himself,” Gingrich said.

Gingrich called on the entire country, including President Barack Obama, to bring pressure on the Democratic Party to act honorably and seat Kirk immediately.

“The president could certainly intervene and say to the Senate Democrats and say to the Illinois secretary of state, ‘we need to play fair and we need to honor the American people,’ Gingrich said.

Gingrich called the delay in seating Kirk “much worse” than the machinations involving the seat of former Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy.

Sheesh.

  49 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 Madigan suggests another way *** A look ahead

Tuesday, Nov 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** House Speaker Michael Madigan is throwing a bit of cold water on all this “mandate” talk by Gov. Quinn

“If (the governor) has a mandate, it’s not a real strong mandate,” Mr. Madigan said, perhaps referring to near-solid opposition from Springfield Republicans to any tax hike without big spending cuts first.

But then Madigan went on to lay out how the governor might improve his tax package…

The way “is not only an increase in the tax for education funding,” as Mr. Quinn most recently has proposed. Rather, “my suggestion: Illinois has a severe budget deficit problem. The immediate need is bad. And the need is to pay the bills.”

Even with tax-producing economic growth and/or a modest income tax increase — Mr. Madigan didn’t mention a specific figure — it will take “three to five years to work out of our problem,” he said. The state’s cumulate budget hole is about $14 billion, according to state officials and watchdog groups.

“All we heard about in the campaign is that Illinois is running a big budget deficit,” Mr. Madigan concluded, returning to his main point. “We need to pay the bills.”

And that means a one percentage point income tax hike won’t be nearly enough.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Unlike others, I believe that Gov. Pat Quinn has at least some right to claim a limited mandate from last Tuesday. How many people ran for governor this year promising to increase income taxes and still won? I think he’s probably the only one. That took guts and he prevailed.

But the governor does not have the right to misstate the facts

Quinn believes his win is a mandate for an income tax increase.

“I think that’s absolutely true,” Quinn said Friday. “The people understood my position and they voted for me. The majority carried the day. We’ll have to get more revenue to get Illinois to a better place.”

The “majority” voted for someone else, governor. Also, Bill Brady, Scott Lee Cohen and Lex Green all flatly opposed a tax hike. Total up their numbers and you get 51 percent.

Words matter, governor.

* Meanwhile, this free rides for seniors debacle is almost a perfect microcosm for how screwed up our politics have been in this state

Offering little hope of new funding for buses and trains in the Chicago region, the state’s top legislative leaders from both parties agreed Monday on one point — free rides for senior citizens must be curtailed. […]

House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, said he expects the General Assembly will roll back the free transit rides for seniors that former Gov. Rod Blagojevich insisted on in exchange for his support of a small sales-tax increase for mass transit in 2008.

“My expectation is that eventually we will go back to a system where those who are needy are the ones who get consideration on the fares on mass transit,'’ Madigan said at the fourth annual William Lipinski transportation policy symposium at Northwestern University.

Madigan’s key word there is “eventually.” That could mean next year, it could mean in 20 years. The longer the program remains in place, however, the tougher it’s gonna be to kill or modify.

Blagojevich used his amendatory veto powers to add the free rides provision. And even though people in both parties screamed bloody murder, the General Assembly didn’t dare knock down his AV. Seniors vote. And once you give them something, it’s politically dangerous to take it away.

The House has tried to come up with a compromise in the past to only give the free rides to the “truly needy,” but it’s been stopped in the Senate and Gov. Pat Quinn has threatened to veto it.

If they can reach a compromise in the coming months, then that could be a sign that the majority party is willing to stick their necks out on other items.

* Whether they’ll go this far is doubtful

While the lawmakers said the growing state budget deficit will make bailing out the transit agencies a low priority in the next legislative session, Madigan expressed support for raising the state motor fuel tax.

“I think we ought to raise that tax,” Madigan said at the symposium.

Madigan was the chief co-sponsor of House Bill 1 last year, which would’ve increased the motor fuel tax by 8 cents per gallon. The money would’ve been used for capital projects, but the House Republicans refused to go along and pushed video gaming instead. Raising the fuel tax partially for mass transit would require one heck of a huge compromise with Downstate legislators, to say the least.

* And we still don’t know for sure how the governor’s income tax increase will play out. Back in late July, Gov. Quinn seemed to say that he would veto anything other than his one percentage point tax hike


Quinn was attempting at the time to control the damage done by his budget director, who predicted to Bloomberg that the income tax would be hiked by two points in January, which would be double Quinn’s proposal.

* But a one point hike that includes property tax relief doesn’t do a whole lot to balance the state’s budget. And without further cuts, many legislators will be reticent to vote for any tax increase

While [GOP Rep. Mike Tryon] expected the tax increase to come during the fall veto session starting Nov. 16, [Democratic Rep. Jack Franks] said he expected it in January, just prior to the new General Assembly being seated. He said he didn’t think it would be successful.

“They’re asking for more money, but to do it without cuts and while keeping the same problems? Nobody in their right mind would vote for that, so I don’t think [Quinn] will get it passed,” Franks said.

Franks will never vote for a tax hike no matter how much the budget is cut. But he may not be too far off with that prediction of his.

* There are those who are attempting to look at the local tea leaves to claim that the citizenry is opposed to higher taxes

In this year’s election there were dozens of referenda on the ballot asking voters if they support or oppose local sales and/or property tax increases. Of the 37 tax increase referenda, only 16 passed. The levies were proposed to fund school facilities, municipal services, roadway construction, and other local government operations.

16 out of 37 is actually a pretty decent batting average, as far as recession-era tax hike referenda go. Hinsdale passed a sales tax increase, for example, as did Lake Zurich and even Macon County, where Bill Brady cleaned up. Even so, local sales and property tax referenda are different animals. I’m not sure there’s a direct comparison here.

  58 Comments      


Congratulations are in order

Tuesday, Nov 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* First up, Scott Reeder, who is a proud papa of a new baby…

Caitlin Roberta Reeder arrived at 8:09 a.m. today in St. John’s Hospital in Springfield. The 8 pounds 7 ounce newborn and her Mom are happy and healthy. Dad and big sisters Grace and Anna are proud as can be.

* Not trying to mix personal with business, but Illinois Review is due props of a different sort

Illinois Review is launching its 6th year of serving Illinois conservatives by providing news, commentary, discussion and events. We want to thank each of our generous Illinois Review contributors who’ve faithfully and graciously shared their thoughts and talents with us over the years.

We’re also thankful for all the faithful readers — from Springfield to Chicago, Metro East to Washington D.C. And we appreciate the support of fellow conservatives committed to the principles of limited government, individual rights, free markets and traditional values.

  Comments Off      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Nov 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Stateline.org

At least 30 states will be governed by a single-party when new lawmakers and governors are sworn in early next year. Last week’s election gave Republicans control of the legislature and the governor’s office in 20 states, up from nine. Democrats, who controlled 15 states, will see that number shrink to 10.

National map of one-party state governments before election day…

After election day…

* The Question: Considering that the Republicans could not take over either legislative chamber, the governor’s mansion or the Supreme Court during the greatest Republican wave since 1994 (and the largest GOP state legislative wave since 1928), and considering that the GOP will be completely shut out of the redistricting process for the first time since our new state Constitution was adopted, are Statehouse Republicans doomed here? If not, why? If so, for how long? Explain.

* Bonus Question: Either way, what should legislative Republicans do now?

  85 Comments      


Ignoring the millionaire in the room

Tuesday, Nov 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Subscribers already know what I found last week after talking to Bill Brady’s campaign and others about where and why Brady lost to Gov. Pat Quinn.

“Social issues” seems to be a big part of everyone’s post-election analysis, although I think I’ve pinpointed that aspect of it far more for subscribers.

* For instance, here’s Kent Redfield

Another surprise was Gov. Pat Quinn beating Republican Bill Brady. Redfield suspects that suburban Chicago voters were wood by Quinn’s political commercials that pushed Brady’s conservative views on guns, abortion, and education. Redfield said, “They did a good job of making Brady look scary.”

That was part of it.

* Sean Trende, a Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics, published a nifty little map. The counties in blue are those that Mark Kirk outperformed fellow Republican Bill Brady. The counties in red are those where Brady did better than Kirk…

And his resulting take

Looking at the counties where Brady ran behind Kirk, the most likely explanation is that the Democratic Governor’s Association’s advertisements emphasizing his socially conservative views took their toll. Even in a very red year, the state’s blue fundamentals took over in that race.

The DGA’s ads ran during the summer. They didn’t work. This is what happens when you write your analysis in DC and you only talk to fellow DC denizens who love to take credit for themselves.

* Bernie thinks that creationism and Sheila Simon were in the mix

What do Sheila Simon and creationism have in common? Each might be able to take some credit for helping Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn steer clear of the Republican wave that swept the nation Tuesday.

* Progress Illinois thinks it was the ground game which got black and Latino voters to the polls

Buoying Quinn and Simon’s likely successful election bid was strong support from minority voters. Statewide, African-Americans and Latinos cast an estimated 90 percent and 62 percent of their ballots, respectively, for the Democratic candidates according to a CNN exit poll.

62 percent of the Latino vote is pretty darned horrid. Rod Blagojevich took 83 percent of the Latino vote four years ago.

* But Greg Hinz and I are the only two who pointed out the obvious

[Brady’s] campaign team assumed that independent Scott Lee Cohen would pull votes from Mr. Quinn. Wrong. As I see it, any race involving an incumbent is a referendum on that incumbent, and any third candidate just splits the anti vote.

It’s more than just random third candidates, however. Keep in mind that Cohen spent a fortune on this race. He wasn’t your usual third party also-ran.

The Brady campaign told me a few months ago that they believed Cohen wouldn’t hurt them until he got more than 7 percent of the vote. I told them at the time that I thought they were wrong. They were.

Let’s take a look at just two suburban counties. In DuPage County, Mark Kirk won by 57,338 votes and Brady won by 44,812. Third party candidates received 14,491 votes in the US Senate race, but third partiers and Scott Lee Cohen combined to score 20,188 in the governor’s race.

Lake County saw the same thing. Kirk won by 36,247 and Brady won by 15,800. Third partiers got 9,451 US Senate votes and 15,148 gubernatorial votes.

This actually happened all over suburbia.

Lots of voters took a look at Quinn and decided they couldn’t be with him. But then they looked at Brady and, for various reasons (likely the social issues, subscribe for more detailed info on why) decided they couldn’t vote for him, either. So, they went with Cohen, who spent millions on TV, mail and radio.

I told you weeks ago that when Cohen’s name was included in the polling, Quinn significantly closed the gap on Brady. For weeks, I refused to even run Rasmussen’s poll numbers until they included Cohen’s name in their surveys for that very reason.

The Cohen factor was huge, yet it’s been almost wholly ignored out there.

Scott Lee Cohen hated Pat Quinn. He got into the governor’s race thinking he could destroy Quinn. In the greatest of all 2010 ironies, Cohen ended up playing a major role in electing Quinn.

I gotta wonder what he does for an encore.

Any guesses?

  67 Comments      


Between a Madigan and a tea party

Tuesday, Nov 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I had heard this, but wasn’t able to confirm it last week, but Michael Sneed ran it

Contrasting styles: Dem Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan spent the afternoon fielding the phones on Election Day in his 13th ward office . . . while Illinois House GOP leader Tom Cross played golf at Medinah Country Club in the northwest suburbs.

* And my syndicated newspaper column takes a look at a particularly sticky wicket

Without a doubt, the worst place to be right now in Illinois politics is the state’s House Republican caucus. Their leader Tom Cross went “all in” this year against House Speaker Michael Madigan and came up way short.

There were the innumerable planted newspaper stories about Madigan, including, for instance, how he apparently picked his own Republican challenger. The Republicans then staged a downtown Chicago “fundraiser” for Madigan’s invisible opponent.

Then there were the billboards along the Tollway ridiculing Madigan, which ginned up even more unflattering media coverage. Of course, there also were the countless mailers and TV ads claiming that Madigan was the real problem in Illinois.

That’s not to mention the hundreds of times Cross boldly predicted he would win the majority and finally put Madigan in his place. Madigan detested Cross before the election. It’s gone way beyond that now.

Maybe Cross truly believed he could take Madigan out. More likely, the boasting was a ruse to raise money from gullible rich Republican businessmen.

Maybe Cross figured that even if he didn’t win, Bill Brady surely would beat Gov. Pat Quinn, and then Cross would have someone to protect him and his members from Madigan’s retribution. A Brady win also would mean that Cross would have a chance at drawing the new legislative district map next year.

And maybe Cross concluded that even if he didn’t win and Brady lost, then at least Democratic Supreme Court Chief Justice Tom Kilbride would lose his retention battle because out-of-state business groups were spending cash hand over fist against him. With Kilbride out, the court would at least temporarily lose its Democratic majority and might be frightened into going along with any Republican lawsuit against a Democratic district map.

Well, not only is Cross still in the minority, he won’t have a Republican governor to backstop him. And Chief Justice Kilbride won - big.

Most of Cross’ members are loyal, but they have to be worried about their future. Legislators, like most humans, are mainly concerned with self-preservation. But the Quinn/Kilbride wins mean that Speaker Madigan will draw the new district map. And the power of the map means that some of those Republicans won’t be coming back in two years. One time-tested map trick is to draw two or more “enemies” into the same district. In other words, the Republicans need to hope that the housing market improves soon because some of them will have to find new digs.

The remap always hovers above everything in Springfield. During the last redistricting process in 2001, several state senators were in the secure computer room on Sept. 11. Planes were crashing, buildings were falling, but they were checking on their boundaries. That’s how important this is to them.

It’s no secret that Madigan is not the forgive and forget type. And he’s not above using something as important as the map to “urge” compliance with his wishes. There are a whole lot of crucial votes coming up during the next several months as the General Assembly attempts to dig the state out of this massive hole.

The Republicans have spent the past three years in open, hostile opposition to Madigan, with the situation degrading sharply over the past year or so. Many of those members are trying to figure out how they can best navigate the next couple of years and preserve themselves in the process.

It’s not that simple, though. Even if some of Cross’ members bow down to His Royal Highness in exchange for map crumbs, they have another, perhaps even more serious problem to ponder.

Several House Republicans have state facilities in their districts, so they naturally are more amenable to “revenue enhancements.” Others, particularly in the suburbs, have long been allies of the teachers unions. But many of those same members surely are worried what could happen to them if they vote with the Democrats. Forget Cross. I’m talking about the tea partiers.

Just look at what the tea partiers did to established Republicans in primaries all over the country this year. In Delaware, they beat the most respected Republican in the state with a bizarre candidate who eventually had to run TV ads assuring voters she wasn’t a witch. No way does Harry Reid go back to the U.S. Senate if Nevada Republicans had nominated their sane primary candidate.

Illinois’ next primary will be held in a little over 17 months. Whatever the Republicans do next year still will be fresh in angry voters’ minds.

I just wouldn’t want to be in their shoes right now.

* Related…

* Despite big wins, Illinois GOP fell short Tuesday: “The Democrats will be in the catbird seat,” said Christopher Mooney, professor of political studies with the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois Springfield. “There’s nothing more important politically in a decade than redistricting. It’s the most political activity that a state does. It has huge implications for policy… This will be the first time under this constitution that a single party has controlled it,” Mooney said. “There’s no hat-pulling, there’s no long, drawn-out process.”

* Despite GOP wins, Democrats still control much of Illinois government: “I woke up the morning after and I thought, ‘Nothing’s different,’” said state Sen. Dave Luechtefeld, R-Okawville. “The same people are running the place.”

* Journal-Courier: Same old same old

* House Speaker Mike Madigan has work to do: Madigan’s critics — including some quiet ones in his own party — have long argued that politics and power, not policy, consume the speaker. But policy is what we’re desperate for in this economically depressed state. Bipartisan compromise and consensus would be a welcome relief. There is no one more knowledgeable or better positioned to achieve any of this than Mike Madigan.

* Lawmakers expected to consider drastically expanding gambling: State Sen. Terry Link (D-Vernon Hills) said he’s proposing a measure this week that would allow four new casinos - one in Chicago, another in an undetermined south suburban location, one in north suburban Park City and a fourth in downstate Danville. Advocates of expanded gambling haven’t confirmed where in the south suburbs a casino would be located, but opponents of the plan say Ford Heights is a likely target.

* Horse tracks hope to hit on slots: A plan that would allow slot machines at six Illinois racetracks is expected to be introduced in Springfield this week by Sen. Terry Link (D-Vernon Hills) as part of a gambling expansion package.

* State lawmakers weigh more gambling ahead of veto session

* Lawmaker: Gambling Expansion A Good Bet

* BGA To Lawmakers: Use Caution On Gambling

* Gov. Quinn: Put state income tax hike first

* Quinn: Election win ‘mandate’ for tax hike

* Gov. Pat Quinn’s mandate equals higher taxes in Illinois

* PJ Star: A ‘mandate’ for Gov. Quinn? Hardly

* Northwest Herald: No mandate on tax hike

* Sun-Times: Police, fire pensions need legislative 911

* llinois: We’ll take Wisconsin’s $810M in stimulus money

  85 Comments      


Morning Shorts

Tuesday, Nov 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Luis Gutierrez: Sun-Times’s Rezko story ‘false

* Rezko gave Gutierrez a deal on town house

* FBI interviewed Luis Gutierrez in 2008 about Rezko deal

* Key witness in Blago trial charged with shoplifting

* Retail good and bad: Vacancy drops, but so do rents

* Weis: City crime is down for 22nd straight month

* Burge sentencing postponed till Jan.

* Daley hopes to find new schools chief quickly

* Cook County tax rates generally stable

* Cook County property-tax bills expected to be flat in Chicago, slightly up in suburbs

* Daley’s last budget poised to sail through City Council

* Budget Committee OKs Mayor Daley’s $6.15 billion budget for 2011

* Daley’s $6B City Budget Gets Preliminary OK

* Standard & Poor’s lowers Chicago bonds

* Audit discovers firefighters falsified mileage claims

* Senator Durbin wants investigation into Metra pollution levels

* Clearing the air on Metra pollution

* Metra commuters may face health risks

* City Council Committee Approves Acid Ordinance Supported by Attack Victims

* Lee Enterprises reports continued growth in 4Q

* Kurtz resigns from MCC board

* Will County faces dilemma: Jobs or lower taxes?

* Aurora police union hires firm to probe city budgets

* Fourth candidate announces for Yorkville mayor

* Moline may raise garbage fee, as well as city administrator’s pay

* Quincy expects early retirement program to meet its $5.2 million goal

* Adams County budget deficit remains just over $1 million

* Macon County is poised to approve budget

* Enos Park master plan would cost $45 million over 10-20 years

* Sales tax boosters to reassess, maybe try again

* SJ-R: Don’t give up on sales tax hike for schools

* Ordinance will cost landlords $25 per unit in Collinsville

* Mayoral hopefuls’ sprint under way

* Coalition of black leaders backs Rep. Davis for mayor

* Meeks rips black mayoral search process

* Sweet: African American Chicago mayoral vote could be splintered

* Emanuel Will Announce Run Next Week

* Rahm Emanuel talks trash – in good way

* Rahm to lay out plans for growing Chicago jobs

* McQueary: Emanuel desperately needs a ‘beer summit’

* Mayoral Hopeful Pushes Old Idea: Abolishing City’s ‘Head Tax’

* Emanuel pitches phasing out head tax for businesses

* Miguel Del Valle Refutes Report He’s Interested in CPS Job

* Brown: Del Valle in mayoral race until very end

* Washington: Next mayor needs arts agenda

* Tax appeals commissioner won’t run for Chicago mayor

* ‘Party’s over,’ Preckwinkle vows

* State’s attorney investigating Batavia vote complaint

  3 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Monday’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Saturday, Nov 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Reader comments closed until Tuesday

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Barton and I are going to take a long weekend. Many thanks to Bill Brady for conceding today and letting us all get a much-needed break. I think I could sleep for three days.

Before I go, I want to thank this blog’s readers and commenters for an enjoyable, crazy fun election season. But I want to particularly thank my subscribers for their continued support. Times are tough, and some of you can’t afford to renew, but most of you are hanging in there, as you’ve done for many a year. I can’t thank you enough, and I hope to continue improving every day.

* Anyway, enough of this “I love you, man!” stuff. I need a nap. These guys are playing their first Chicago gig at the Double Door on Tuesday. Check them out


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*** UPDATED x1 *** Quinn victory press conference live-blog and video

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* ABC7 will broadcast it live.

I’ll post the embedded video at 3:30, when the festivities are set to begin.

* 3:27 pm - The feed is now hot, so here’s the embed.

If you have any problems with ABC7’s feed, you can click here to watch WGN.

* 3:33 pm - WGN just reported that the presser is running 10-20 minutes late.

* While we’re waiting for the governor, House Republican Leader Tom Cross just issued a statement…

“Residents across the state and the nation have sent a very strong message this week by electing more Republicans to serve in six new seats in the Illinois House.

The next couple of months we will congratulate and talk to the new members in our caucus, as well as the members across the aisle. We will also work with the newly elected constitutional officers and ask for the input and ideas for comprehensive solutions.

It is imperative that we continue listen to Illinois residents’ concerns and ideas and work together on solutions as we look forward to getting our state back on track.

If we make that our mission, we will be able to enact solutions that will create more jobs and a more efficient, effective government that is accountable to the people we serve.”

* 3:58 pm - Almost a half hour late. Four more years, campers. Oy.

*** 3:59 pm *** And we’re starting…

“We may have strong differences on policy issues, but we’re all Americans and Illinoisans.”

Said being elected was a “tremendous privilege.”

“We were often underestimated, but not by me.” Said he believes in grassroots politics.

Education, he said, is the “key to opportunity for everyone.”

“My job is to put Illinois to work.” Mentioned education again and said he wants to maintain integrity in government. Said those were his three top goals.

He used Manny’s as a microcosm of Illinois. Diverse clientele where everybody seems to get along.

“I could tell last week that there was a surge everywhere I went.” “The people call the shots, not the experts, not the pollsters and not the insiders.”

“It’s never easy to concede. I’ve not won every election and when you don’t win it’s really hard.”

Quinn said he will put together a veto session agenda for the “budget situation” and the “jobs situation.”

Asks that legislators in both parties in both chambers “not be timid” on reform.

Said he thinks AllKids will be in place “as long as I’m around.”

“You know, when you’re down 13 points, nobody’s throwing rosebuds at you.” Best line of the day.

Said he sees a tax increase as “revenue investments in people.” … “Investing in education pays great dividends.”

Said the Hispanic vote was “very, very important… and really made a big difference.”

“We have a lot of work to do in Illinois and I’m ready to do it.”

* End.

…Adding… Bill Brady’s concession letter to supporters is here.

*** UPDATE *** Video


  45 Comments      


A little mid-afternoon diversion - Pat Quinn busts a move

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Simon Edelman was producing videos for Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign in complete obscurity until the readers of this blog started taking notice in the early summer of 2009. His recent “Glee” video now has over 150,000 views. Our young man has grown up right before our eyes. Simon sent me this e-mail the other day and I got so busy that I forgot to post it…

Dear Rich, subscribers and Capitol Fax junkies,

For the last 18 months I’ve had the privilege of documenting Pat Quinn’s governorship.

Every day, I’ve had one basic goal: to faithfully and positively portray Governor Quinn. I’ve also labored to reveal the many contrasts between Pat Quinn and his opponents. The Governor has made my job interesting and easy, because he’s always on the go and he works really hard.

It’s been an honor and an education to serve the Governor in my capacity and to shadow him along the way as he accomplished historic things for Illinois. I have seen a lot of big egos and ugly politics since I started this job, but Pat Quinn is cut from a different cloth — an honest, independent, public servant. We need that.

As this campaign season draws to a close, I want to thank you, sincerely for your critiques and your compliments.

Sincerely,
Simon B. Edelman

* Simon’s note inspired me to make another Quinn mashup video. This one’s for Simon, Gov. Quinn and all the people who worked so hard to elect the governor. I figure they’ve earned it. Some of you may disagree with the sentiment expressed, but, hey, it’s over, man. It’s finally over. So get up and dance with Pat


Gimme the bridge now

  20 Comments      


Brady’s concession speech live blog - Raw video

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* You can click here to listen or watch the live video.

* 1:29 pm - The video feed is now hot.

* 1:30 pm - Two minute warning. Jason Plummer will speak first, followed by Sen. Bill Brady.

* 1:32 pm - If you’re having trouble with the ABC7 feed, CBS2 also has a live feed.

* 1:33 pm - Plummer vowed to work with the lt. governor and the governor any way he could. He choked up a bit when thanking his staff.

* 1:34 pm - Brady is now speaking. “This election, this campaign for us was all about a path to bringing jobs” to the people of Illinois.

“We thank the voters of Illinois, the millions of voters who were willing to listen to us.”

“I just a few minutes ago got off the phone with Gov. Quinn, and I congratulated him on his victory, as he deserved.”

Brady said he also offered to work with Gov. Quinn.

Sen. Brady praised his wife Nancy, “who could not do a better job.”

“Jason and I have truly been blessed” with their hard-working staff.

“But it’s the people of Illinois that we truly are grateful to.”

Brady said that after a “bitter election,” it was time to work together to make the state as great as it can be.

* 1:40 pm - End of remarks.

* 1:41 pm - He’s going to take questions from the media. Said the governor had invited him to Manny’s Deli to talk. Said the big GOP congresional wins show that the people want their leaders to work together in a bipartisan manner. Asked about his campaign strategy, he said he’d leave it to the pundits to decide whether it was the right one or not.

He wouldn’t rule any further run out right now. “Life’s too short to rule anything out.” Mrs. Brady said something at the same time, but I didn’t catch it. Did anyone else hear what she said?

* 1:44 pm - End of questions.

Classy, reserved, firm, yet not defiant. A decent job by a decent man.

* 2:12 pm - Sun-Times

Trailing Gov. Quinn by more than 19,000 votes, Republican Bill Brady conceded the gubernatorial race Friday afternoon, saying: “Gov. Quinn won this race. He worked hard for it.”

Speaking to reporters and supporters at a Bloomington hotel, Brady said he had just spoken with Quinn.

“I congratulated him on his victory,” Brady said,

Brady’s announcements ends a gubernatorial campaign that had led Quinn in most pre-election polls.

* 2:18 pm - Gov. Quinn is holding a 3:30 presser. I’ll look around for live audio/video. Help me if you can. I still have to finish my syndicated newspaper column. If you missed Brady’s speech, here is the raw video


* At the end, Brady is asked whether he might run again. “Third time’s a charm?” a reporter asked. Brady said that life’s too short to rule anything out. Mrs. Brady, however, shook her head, smiled and said what sounded like “We’re not going to entertain that right now.” I don’t blame her. That was a grueling campaign. Bill’s basically been running for governor for the past six years.

  61 Comments      


A look ahead

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Pat Quinn loves him some Michael Sneed, and he gave her an exclusive interview for today’s paper

Amongst Quinn’s running mates on the state Dem ticket were those who treated him as “toxic and did not want to have their pictures taken with me,” he said.

“It was hard to take watching them shy away, but in the end we had the connection to ordinary people and that’s what counted. It has all been inspiring.”

From yesterday’s Sneed

Click. Click. Nix pix. Sneed hears failed U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias felt Gov. Quinn was so toxic weeks before the election, he steered away from posing in pix with him until just before the election.

It wasn’t just Giannoulias, however. Quinn has been upset for months that legislative Democrats with anything close to a tough race refused to go anywhere near him. Considering how badly Quinn was beaten Downstate, that’s quite understandable. And while he won the Cook County suburbs, he was never anywhere near 50 percent, so he was seen as a needless drag. Legislative leaders prefer to position their candidates in isolation during years like this. But Quinn thought that meant they despised him. It wasn’t personal, it was just business.

* For instance, Brady had some coattails in Decatur

Though the Decatur area will feel the effects of a number of statewide elections, the ousting of state Rep. Bob Flider might mean the most significant change for the city and the Illinois House district that includes most of it. […]

Flider’s defeat means Decatur will no longer have any Democratic representation in the General Assembly

Flider wanted nothing to do with Quinn during the campaign. I can’t hardly blame him.

* And check this out

Gov. Pat Quinn and Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias did not win a single precinct within Adams County in Tuesday’s election, and U.S. Rep. Phil Hare was only able to claim one precinct.

Reports from the Adams County county clerk’s office also show that two Republican statewide candidates, Mark Kirk and Bill Brady, won all 80 precincts and collected more than 70 percent of the vote in Adams County. Kirk defeated Giannoulias in the U.S. Senate race, while Brady trails Quinn by nearly 20,000 votes despite winning 98 of the state’s 102 counties.

As expected, Bobby Schilling, the Republican candidate in the 17th U.S. House District in Illinois, received 72 percent of the vote overall and won 62 of 63 precincts the district covers in Adams County. U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Peoria, represents the other precincts.

Hare, a two-term incumbent, received less than a quarter of the vote in Adams County and won one precinct in the city of Quincy. & not; In 2006, the last time Hare faced an opponent (Andrea Zinga), he won 39 percent of the vote in Adams County and 19 precincts, all in the city of Quincy.

* Gov. Quinn won on a platform of moderate cuts, “strategic” borrowing and raising taxes. But a key component of that plan stalled again yesterday in the Senate

Illinois senators will try again in two weeks to figure out how to make $3.75 billion in payments to state pension systems this year.

After hurriedly returning to Springfield two days after the election to address the issue, the Senate adjourned Thursday without voting on a plan to make the payment by borrowing up to $4 billion. The bill, previously approved by the House, didn’t even get a vote in committee.

* And lawmakers don’t appear to love any of the options

Illinois also has a backlog of nearly $6 billion in unpaid bills to schools and vendors that do business with the state. Jacobs said the state has to clear its name of that debt.

“I think at the end of the day you’ve got to pay your bills,” Jacobs. “So that gives you a couple of options: You either borrow it, you raise a tax to get it or you cut something to get it.”

Thursday’s inaction on the pension bond plan appears to kick borrowing off the list.

State Sen. Bill Haine, D-Alton, said cuts most likely are on the horizon.

“Primarily we’re going to have to cut as much waste as we can, and we’re going to have to cut programs that are not waste but that are good programs but that we can’t afford anymore,” Haine said. “We just can’t afford some of the good things that we do.”

Public opinion polls have shown voters support cuts, but when given specific programs to cut, they balk. Same goes for an income tax increase.

“The polls indicate the people at this time do not believe a tax increase is justified,” said Haine. “So we have to have a dialogue and have them tell us what their priorities are and how we get to a state of solvency. We are in a state where we are critically in danger of being insolvent.”

* And the general feeling under the Statehouse dome yesterday was similar to this longtime subscriber’s, who wrote…

After being pounded for being incompetent and a flip-flopper, Quinn decides to spend his lunch hour [yesterday] in Chicago glad-handing voters at Manny’s Deli, rather in Springfield glad-handing senators at the session he asked Cullerton to call. I know they didn’t have the votes, but it might have been nice to send the message that he was engaged on the solutions he proposed.

The really frustrating thing is that Quinn is probably going to take this election as some kind of mandate and vindication of his governance, management style and all-around brilliance, rather than realizing that he got very lucky, and that a lot of people pitched in and helped even though they were upset with his leadership. I count myself among them.

It’s going to be a long four years.

Yes, it is. Without a doubt.

  20 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I seem to be using him a lot today, but Zorn has posted a Pat Quinn quote

I” have a mandate, I think, to serve Illinois for the next four years…I think there are those who understand that the election returns gave us a lot of support”

Well, he did run on a tax increase platform during a tea party (TEA=Taxed Enough Already) year and won. That’s certainly something. Yet, he hardly scored a resounding win.

* The Question: Does Gov. Quinn have a mandate? If not, explain. If so, to do what?

  89 Comments      


Brady will bow out at 1:30

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’ll see what I can do about finding some audio and video. WJBC Radio in Bloomington was a good source the other day. Check back at 1:30.

* Pantagraph

Republican state Sen. Bill Brady is expected to concede the race for governor to Democrat Pat Quinn later Friday, The Pantagraph has learned.

* Tribune

The candidate has scheduled a 1:30 p.m. news conference at a Bloomington hotel.

* AP

Two Republicans with knowledge of state Sen. Bill Brady’s campaign plans say he will concede the extremely close race for Illinois governor to Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn.

The two spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity so as not to pre-empt Brady’s planned announcement later Friday in his hometown of Bloomington.

…Adding… ABC7 will carry it live. Thanks to a commenter for finding that one.

  41 Comments      


BRADY TO HOLD PRESSER AT 1:30

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

Posted by Barton Lorimor

More gubernatorial drama…

State Sen. Bill Brady has set a 1:30 p.m. news conference in Bloomington to make an announcement regarding his campaign for governor of Illinois. […]

There is no word on what the announcement will entail, but so far Brady has refused to concede the race. An AP analysis completed Thursday showed Quinn with a 19,400-vote lead with 100 percent of precincts reporting.

  65 Comments      


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Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Newspaper wants to abolish one person, one vote in Illinois

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Southern Illinoisan’s editorial board has lost its collective mind

Here is the frustrating reality facing our state. Chicago has enough votes to forever rule Illinois statewide government. That seems a near certainty because of the city’s one-party Democratic rule.

Critics of the Electoral College will howl at this suggestion, but the final voting mechanism that awards the U.S. presidency would better the entire state of Illinois for statewide offices - including governor and attorney general - than the popular vote. It would require passage of a constitutional amendment and meet fierce resistance by Chicago, but the advantages would be felt across Illinois. It would mean more statewide power for Marion, Carbondale and other communities across the state.

If created for Illinois statewide offices, an electoral college could award differing numbers of votes to each county, based on population. Larger counties would have more electoral votes through this per-capita system, but not the crushing majority wielded by Chicago with the popular vote. It would require an absolute majority of electoral votes to win a statewide office.

Our national founders created the Electoral College to prevent big population states from playing too great a role in a nationwide vote. It occasionally results in the oddity of a popular vote winner, such as Al Gore in 2000, failing to capture the Electoral College vote and the presidency. But the leveling of the playing field for urban, suburban and rural voters is an important continuation of our nation’s federalist roots. It is worth the occasional anomaly, especially since the popular and Electoral College winners are usually the same candidate.

Let’s think about a similar system for Illinois. It would give our state a chance to remain known as the “Land of Lincoln” and not as “the suburb of Chicago.”

Yeah. OK. Let’s abandon “One person, one vote.” Right. That brilliant idea wouldn’t just meet “fierce resistance” from Chicago. Judges would laugh it out of court. Seriously, pot didn’t just secretly become legal in Illinois, did it? Because those editorial board members are obviously smoking some very wacky weed.

* Empty acres don’t vote. Counties don’t vote. Townships don’t vote. Regions don’t vote. Citizens vote.

Back in the “good old days,” southern Illinois politicians were able to stop redistricting for decades. The Chicago area’s population was exploding, but the people there had little influence in their state legislature. Apparently, the newspaper of record for that region would like to go back to those halcyon times.

* Here’s a news flash for the undemocratic southerners: Mark Kirk is not from Chicago, but he won statewide. Judy Baar Topinka does not live in Chicago and neither does Dan Rutherford. Sheila Simon actually lives in Carbondale, where that bizarro newspaper is published.

Bill Brady didn’t lose because he wasn’t from Chicago. Bill Brady lost because he failed to run a better campaign than Pat Quinn. Period. Brady was the frontrunner all year. He blew it. Plain and simple. Get over it, man. Back in 1994, Downstater Jim Edgar actually won Cook County. George Ryan was from Kankakee, where I was born. Last time I checked, Kankakee is not a Chicago ward. Obviously, it can be done. Brady just didn’t pull it off.

* And it wasn’t just Chicago votes that elected Pat Quinn. Almost half a million Downstaters voted for him. Should they be disenfranchised too?

Why should the 2,104 voters in Hardin County have more say in their state government than the 1,373,020 human being voters who happen to live in Cook County? What makes those Hardin voters so all-fired special and superior?

The Southern Illinoisan is based in Jackson County. 15,617 people voted for governor in Jackson. But 23,594 people voted in Chicago’s 19th Ward. Yet, for some reason Jackson County votes should count for more than Beverly/Morgan Park’s?

* Look, you backed a candidate who didn’t win. But that doesn’t mean it’s time for radical, unconstitutional “solutions.” That’s some very dangerous thinking.

Several years ago, I asked the good folks who run the Legislative Research Unit if they had any data on which counties were the biggest state tax eaters and which were the biggest state revenue generators. I was told that the LRU has long refused to do that study because it is just too controversial. The last time they did it, they discovered that Downstate was a net revenue eater, the suburbs were a net revenue contributor and Chicago was revenue neutral. The results caused such an uproar that they won’t even touch the subject now.

The fact that Downstaters eat more than their share of state money doesn’t give them the right to have more than one vote per person.

* Newspaper editorial boards are supposed to be the guardians of public discourse. They’re supposed to take the time to think things through, calm the darker influences on our souls and advocate for rational, reasonable solutions. None of that was present in the SI’s ridiculous editorial. I really thought the Tribune was horrid, but there’s just no comparison here.

  147 Comments      


A note to commenters

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Usually, I have to use the front page to warn commenters before an election to calm down. I didn’t have to do that this year. I intervened in the comments section on occasion, but it never got to the point where I felt the need to issue an above the fold banishment warning.

Yesterday afternoon, however, while I was working at the Statehouse and unable to keep an eye on the blog, things got way outta hand in comments.

* I completely understand how Bill Brady’s supporters feel right now. You thought you had it. You didn’t. And now the other side doesn’t want to even give you time to make sure all the votes are counted. That’s just horribly depressing. I can see why you’re upset, even angry.

And I think I understand how the Quinn supporters are feeling. You had Rodney Freaking Dangerfield himself as your candidate, but by gosh he won. And now the guy he beat won’t admit defeat and exit the stage like a proper gentleman.

Combine those two and you’ve got quite the combustible mix.

* But here’s the thing. I won’t tolerate any more of this. I issued a lifetime banishment last night and I’ll do more today if need be, so start treating each other with respect and take off your tinfoil hats or you’re going to find yourself forever banned from commenting here. And you can bet your house that I’m just itching to zap my first moron today. Don’t tempt me.

Try to understand what the other side is going through. It’s not really all that difficult. Both parties won something unexpected Tuesday, both parties also lost.

* Please use the comment section on this post to say something nice about the other side today. You’ll be surprised at how much better you’ll feel. Politics is a rough business, and, yes, we do play rough here. But we don’t need to get dirty and be mean to each other.

So, electronically shake hands and let’s move along. We’re better than yesterday.

  63 Comments      


Who was the best pollster? Nobody

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* How did the pollsters do on the Illinois governor’s race? I don’t think it’s ever been this bad. Nobody’s average even came close. From RCP via Zorn. Click the pic for a larger image…

* October polling. Again, click the pic for a better view…

PPP should’ve stopped in mid October when it was ahead.

* Rasmussen was also way off nationwide. From FiveThirtyEight, also via Zorn…

I did a quick check on the accuracy of polls from the firm Rasmussen Reports, which came under heavy criticism this year — including from FiveThirtyEight — because its polls showed a strong lean toward Republican candidates.

Indeed, Rasmussen polls quite consistently turned out to overstate the standing of Republicans tonight. Of the roughly 100 polls released by Rasmussen or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research in the final 21 days of the campaign, roughly 70 to 75 percent overestimated the performance of Republican candidates, and on average they were biased against Democrats by 3 to 4 points.

Every pollster is entitled to a bad cycle now and again — and Rasmussen has had some good cycles in the past. But their polling took a major downturn this year.

* But FiveThirtyEight’s famed computer model didn’t exactly work like a charm, either

Thoughts?

  29 Comments      


Chicago will count 11,777 absentees Friday

Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up from Thursday evening for visibility.]

* From the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners…

* We have another 11,777 absentee voters’ ballots that have arrived by mail Monday or later. These will be processed at 10 a.m. on Fri., Nov. 5 in the Lower Level at 69 W. Washington St., along with any valid absentee ballots that may arrive in the mail early Friday with a postmark of Nov. 1 or earlier.

* We have a remaining universe of approximately 6,000 absentee ballots not yet returned that may or may not arrive over the course of the next 12 days. (On Wednesday, I understated this number because of the errant reference to the pages of returned ballots, instead of the number of voters’ sets of ballots — Constitutional Amendment and Candidates.)

* There also remain approximately 11,000 provisional ballot envelopes that need to be reviewed over the course of the next week, now that the deadline has passed for voters to supply supplemental documents to support their voter registration claims.

Quinn’s lead stands at 19,413, but apparently, that’ll be rising once Chicago finishes counting. Other counties are still processing as well, but that’s a huge number of city absentees.

* From ABC7

All that is left are the absentee, military and provisional ballots that the Associated Press estimated number around 50,000. If there are that many votes uncounted, Brady would have to win 70-percent to have a chance to win.

And, keep in mind that most of those provisionals probably won’t even be counted. Cook County Clerk David Orr said yesterday that the county usually approves only about a quarter of the provisional ballots. This is why there’s just no chance for Brady.

…Adding… About 37,000 of those 50,000 total uncounted absentees and provisionals are in Chicago and Cook County alone.

…Adding More… Quinn won Chicago with 75 percent of the vote. Figuring that the city’s 11,777 absentees will break out about the same (it’ll probably be higher for Quinn, considering pre-election polling, but let’s just figure it that way), that’s 8,832 absentee votes for Quinn. If a quarter of the city’s provisionals are counted, that’s 2,062 more votes for Quinn, for a total of 10,894 votes. Using the same math for suburban Cook, which Quinn won with 53 percent, Quinn would pick up 6,042 votes. City and Cook combined total 14,874 Quinn votes. Using that same figuring, Brady’s total for both Chicago and Cook would be 6,742. Add the difference of those two numbers to Quinn’s current margin over Brady and you get a Quinn lead of 27,545, with just 13,000 votes left to count, assuming they are all countable, and they’re not.

This thing is over. The AP is right.

  36 Comments      


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