* The House Republicans are doing whatever they can to get under Mike Madigan’s skin. From Greg Hinz…
The battle for control of the Illinois House is getting personal — really personal.
Over the weekend, House Republican Leader Tom Cross’ organization put up three large billboards aimed straight at his Democratic counterpart, longtime Speaker Mike Madigan.
The ads went up along Interstates 90 and 294 in the northwest suburbs, and Team Cross is hoping lots of motorists who live in swing districts in that area will see the billboards and act accordingly.
Brady responded that Quinn’s handling of state finances has been obscured by secrecy and that he thinks a forensic audit will give a clear idea of other areas of state finances that could be cut or made more efficient.
“Until we do an audit, it will be hard to judge the priorities,” Brady said.
But Auditor General Bill Holland had some very unkind words about such a proposal when he testified to the General Assembly earlier this year. Watch it…
The measures lawmakers - mainly Republicans - are pushing now call for an analysis of “all state spending, hiring, procurement, and contracts awarded and the appointment of board and commission officials and decisions made by boards and commissions or those with procurement or hiring authority” from 2001 through 2010.
Here’s the reality check: For state spending alone, there are more than 130 million transactions over that period, from checks issued for mere pennies to lump-sum payments in the tens of millions. A thorough review can be expected to take years, not weeks or months. Any politician who implies the results would be in by their January inauguration - or by the start of the next fiscal year on July 1, 2011 - is … well, dreaming. Auditor General Bill Holland - who has repeatedly proven to be one of the straightest shooters in Illinois government - previously told the Chicago Tribune that the price tag on such an in-depth analysis would be “astronomical,” reaching “hundreds of millions of dollars.”
…Adding… The Brady campaign says they want a “business audit,” not necessarily a “forensic audit.” But a normal Auditor General compliance audit of a single state agency takes nine to twelve months to complete. No way could that be accomplished in time for the budget address.
* Meanwhile, over in the US Senate race, the Tribune weighs in on whether Alexi Giannoulias knew or should’ve known about the extent of criminal activity by a couple of people his family’s bank loaned money to…
It’s probably true that Giannoulias was not fully briefed on their illegal activity, which is the sort of thing felons rarely publicize even to their financial enablers. But he and his colleagues did know — or should have known — enough to show these clients the door.
While I agree that Giannoulias probably isn’t being truthful about what he knew and when he knew it, the gigantic hole in the Tribune’s argument is that lots of other Chicago banks loaned money to those guys as well. Also, considering that recent New York Times article, the Tribune might want to be just a little bit careful about warning banks to avoid lending money to unsavory types.
* The Hill’s poll last week had Republican Adam Kinzinger crushing freshman Congresscritter Debbie Halvorson 49-31. Democrats, however, said the poll looked weird because the universe had changed so drastically. President Obama, for instance, won the 11th District with 53 percent two years ago, but the universe in The Hill’s poll had just 41 percent of likely voters saying they voted for him, compared to John McCain’s 47.
So, the Halvorson campaign decided to release its own numbers. They say they’re behind, but only by four points…
* Adam Kinzinger leads, but only by a small 45% to 41% margin. This is an extremely close race, and the momentum seems to be on Halvorson’s side after her strong early buy on Chicago broadcast television.
* Halvorson is getting movement with key subgroups. She leads with women and she leads with union households in one of the heaviest union districts in the country. Even though independents are breaking against Democrats in many districts, Halvorson and Kinzinger are in a virtual dead heat among them (40% Kinzinger / 37% Halvorson).
Anzalone Liszt claims that Kinzinger’s lead has been halved since August, and that her 2000 ratings points on the teevee has helped make this thing close. Methodology…
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 general election voters in IL CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 5-7, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, and interviews were apportioned geographically based on expected voters turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for n=500 is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.
Keep in mind that this is a candidate poll, so take it for what it’s worth. However, a whole lotta Illinois Dems are relying on Anzalone Liszt this year. If they’re wrong, then there will be plenty of unpleasant surprises all around.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Kinzinger campaign…
Hey Rich:
FYI - Halvorson went dark last friday and has canceled all other time…while DCCC has canceled all but 400K for her for the final week (they previously had scheduled 1.4 mill …then were at 1.1 mill until this latest cancel).
Checking…
*** UPDATE 2 *** From the Halvorson campaign…
We’re still up on Chicago broadcast today (I confirmed that with our firm).
From what I know, the DCCC hasn’t allocated the funds for Chicago broadcast to any of the big three races at this point. I’ll certainly let you know when they do.
* Hare defends efforts to attract jobs: “I’m not going to sit back and just watch and go, ‘Well, you know, I know they need the money and I know it would put people to work, but I just, I don’t want to be criticized for doing it,’” Hare said. “If I could get a plant located here in this community and I knew it would take federal money to do it, I will tell you, I’d go to work on it tomorrow morning.” Terry Schilling, son and campaign manager for the GOP candidate, responded that, “The only thing that Representative Hare has built is $5 trillion of debt for our children and grandchildren.”
* Schoenburg: Hare-Schilling back-and-forth intensifies: Six months ago, a self-described “tea party blogger” from suburban St. Louis said “Jackpot” when U.S. Rep. PHIL HARE, D-Rock Island, gave the perfect sound bite for the YouTube age. As it turns out, TV stations might be the real jackpot winners. A conservative Iowa-based group says it is spending $500,000 to air an advertisement that includes the video of Hare’s comments.
* VIDEO: Phil Hare talks about why he’s running for office during an interview with The State Journal-Register editorial board.
Trying to clear a two-year backlog of violation notices, the Illinois Tollway says it is willing to forgive some hefty fines accrued by Indiana motorists who didn’t pay their tolls.
Of the nearly $7 million in outstanding tolls and fines racked up by some 116,000 Indiana motorists, the tollway said it’s willing to settle in many but not all cases for getting at least the tolls back, about $1.5 million.
As the bills go out, some drivers in the Hoosier state are getting eye-popping notices, saying they owe between $14,000 and $25,000, the tollway says.
Carla Oglesby is charged with theft, money laundering and official misconduct while on the county payroll as Todd Stroger’s deputy chief of staff. […]
And, although Alvarez held open the possibility that others might later be charged, the sources said many of those referred to in the criminal complaint might have had only an unwitting role.
Alvarez would not say whether Stroger — who lost in last winter’s Democratic Party primary to Ald. Toni Preckwinkle and is set to leave office after next month’s general election — is a target of the continuing investigation. […]
Public Official B: David Ramos, who is executive director of the Cook County Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. […]
Public Official C: Eugene Mullins, who has been a friend of Stroger’s since childhood and now heads Stroger’s county public relations office.[…]
Public Official D: Chris Geovanis, a Stroger spokeswoman who reports to Mullins.
The raises came despite the fact that as early as August 2008, area transit agencies knew the revenue outlook was not as bright as they had hoped after the January transit bailout, with sales tax revenues which fund transit 9 percent lower than expected, and free rides for seniors bleeding revenue.
Only at the CTA did payroll fall from 2008 to 2009.
CUB issued a report called “Dodging The Wireless Industry’s Pitfalls to alert consumers to problems that cost users of CUB’s free online comparison service an average of $359 extra per year.
Culprits include paying for extras like insurance, directory assistance or even roadside assistance, which CUB Executive Director David Kolata said are a waste.
“And paying for minutes that are not used has become an epidemic, Kolata said during an interview.
* Report: Most Illinois Cell Phone Users Overpaying
The increase, if approved, would push the sales tax rate in the village from 7.5 percent to 7.75 percent the same as the rate in the Kane County portion of Elgin and lower than the rates in Carpentersville, West Dundee and the Kane County portion of East Dundee.
The board also aims to recognize his unsuccessful effort to bring a federal courthouse and office building to DuPage County, said County Board Chairman Robert Schillerstrom.
The proposed 1.95 percent tax increase is expected to generate $450,000 to cover the city’s obligations toward the rising costs of police and fire pensions, which by state statute must be fully funded by 2033. No other tax or fee increases are proposed in the $97.9 million budget for the 2011 calendar year.
Trustee Robin Meier had proposed the addition, and the other board members agreed it was a good idea. The matter could come before the board again at its next meeting in two weeks.
We’ve been grousing for months about the bogus recall amendment that appears on the Nov. 2 ballot, but make no mistake: We urge you to vote yes. […]
We support a broader measure that would allow the recall of all state executive officers and legislators. With public pressure mounting, lawmakers offered up a feeble measure that shields every elected official but one, and that’s all you’re going to get if you let them get away with it.
To be allowed to circulate petitions, those pushing the recall must first file an affidavit of intent to do so.
This affidavit needs to have not only the signatures of the proponents of the recall petitions, but that of at least 20 members of the state House of Representatives and 10 members of the state Senate.
The real catch is that half of these legislators — 10 from the House and five from the Senate — must be from each major political party.
Without a criminal indictment in the offing, it’s hard to believe that there would be 15 elected Republicans willing to begin the proceedings to oust a Republican governor or 15 Democrats willing to do the same to a Democratic governor.
Yet in the wake of the Blagojevich mess, politicians in Springfield had to “do something” to make it appear they were trying to clean up corruption.
So they put a recall amendment on the November ballot in the hopes that the electorate would feel good about the prospects of removing a corrupt or ineffective elected official from office.
There’s not much to feel good about in this proposal. You should vote no.
Even if you think a recall amendment is necessary, the proposal on the November ballot is worthless.
* The full text of the proposed constitutional amendment is here.
* The Question: How are you voting on this constitutional amendment? Explain.
* A new poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale has Bill Brady opening up a nine-point lead over Gov. Pat Quinn, which is inconsistent with all but one poll taken earlier this month that either had the race super-close or Quinn ahead. But there are a ton of undecideds in this poll and the pollster didn’t push voters to say who they were leaning toward. Let’s have a look…
Quinn 29.8%
Bill Brady 38.4%
Whitney 2.2%
Green 1.5%
Cohen 5.9%
Someone else 2.6%
Don’t know 19.5%
Why include “Someone else” when they have all the ballot names? That many people won’t write in somebody. Also, this poll was taken over eleven days, which is a lot.
And to give you an idea about those undecideds, the Tribune had them at 12 percent, PPP had them at 11 percent and CNN had them at 4 percent and Rasmussen (thrown in just to give you an idea) had them at 8 percent.
* Still, the US Senate numbers seem to match up with everybody else…
Although, again, there’s an inordinately huge number of undecideds.
* This next question is hugely bad news for Democrats. A tied generic congressional ballot means doom because so many Democratic districts are overwhelmingly D…
If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate OR the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?
* Check out the difference between the national right track/wrong track numbers and those for Illinois and local…
We would like to know what you think about the direction of the United States of America. Generally speaking, do you think things in our country are going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 29.4%
Wrong direction 62.4%
Other/Don’t know 8.2%
And what about the direction of the State of Illinois? Generally speaking, are things in Illinois going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 11.1%
Wrong direction 81.3%
Other/Don’t know 7.7%
And how are things going in your city or area of the state? In general, are things in your city or area going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 45.5%
Wrong direction 42.9%
Other/Don’t know 11.6%
Incumbent legislators: Watch out, unless you can make yourself look like a local.
* Methodology…
758 likely voters taken Sept. 30 to Oct. 10. The margin for error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points
Republican candidate for governor Bill Brady said Monday he does not plan to push a conservative social agenda if elected, with the exception of legislation requiring parental notification of teens seeking abortions.
“I don’t think we’ve laid out an agenda in this campaign that deals with that, the Bloomington state senator said at a Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview. […]
Quinn last week said he believed civil unions would be passed into law by the time “Christmas comes around.
If that happens, Brady said, he would not move to overturn the legislation.
“The legislature would have spoken, he said. […]
Brady said the “legislative process will determine the state’s agenda on social issues.
One wonders whether the social conservatives will sit still for this, or if they’ll just keep their powder dry knowing they’ll have an ally if Brady is elected. Thoughts?
Look, we like Quinn personally. We think he means well. But he’s not equipped to get Illinois out of this sorry situation.
That leaves no choice but the Republican nominee. There are three minority party candidates on the ballot and another who’s a write-in, but they are not realistic options. At most, they are protest votes, and the problem with that kind of protest is it could put Quinn back in office.
With that as the backdrop, we endorse state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington for governor.
Not an ideal candidate, Brady’s personal views veer to the right of our tastes and the well-being of the state, but we take him at his word that he won’t push a social agenda as governor and we call on him to govern from the middle.
Apparently, Brady’s promise about social issues was good enough for the DH. Is it for you?
* Related…
* Merchants endorse Brady for guv: One item in IRMA’s press release that I found particularly notable was its implication, as per the above, that a Brady-backed tax hike might come later, after spending cuts. Mr. Brady has said he’s against any tax increase ever, which makes me wonder if IRMA knows something us lesser mortals don’t. Mr. Vite, in a phone call, denied that Mr. Brady had encouraged such speculation — or in any way hinted that he could favor a tax increase. The implied speculation came strictly from IRMA, not Mr. Brady, Mr. Vite said.
* There’s something happening here, according to my latest syndicated newspaper column. What it is ain’t exacly clear…
The race for governor appears to be seriously tightening. The U.S. Senate race has been close all along. Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Secretary of State Jesse White, both Democrats, surely are heading for big wins next month.
But Republicans are doing quite well in congressional and state legislative races pretty much all over Illinois, except in the “bluest” of the blue regions in and near Chicago. Down-ballot Democratic incumbents are running scared all over the place.
And if you want to see how truly weird this election year is, then head on over to House Speaker Michael Madigan’s Southwest Side district. Madigan has sent five campaign mailers to his constituents over the past several days.
The last time Madigan spent even a few dollars on his own election was six years ago, when he beat his hapless Republican opponent with almost 80 percent of the vote. Two years ago, without spending a dime, he won by even more.
Madigan has told his House Democratic members, including many of his “safe” members, that they’d better not take anything for granted this year. He’s apparently taking his own advice.
Madigan has been whacked several times recently by the Chicago Tribune, including a high-profile column mocking him for hand-picking a no-show Republican opponent. The Tribune has connected him to the University of Illinois admissions scandal. The paper published a story about how he’s done various favors in the property business, and it just published a convoluted and not so solid piece about the FBI looking into how a town in Madigan’s district picked an attorney based on his recommendation.
But to give you an idea of how truly strange Madigan’s reaction is, the longtime House speaker’s personal direct-mail program is pretty much on par with what’s being done for Madigan’s most politically vulnerable Democratic incumbents. As of last week, five pieces in the mailboxes with more than three weeks to go before Election Day represents a very significant effort.
“It’s a lot of (expletive deleted) money,” deadpanned one person who is heavily involved with legislative mail programs.
Madigan indeed is concerned about the “slop from the Tribune,” according to his spokesman. So far, however, none of his mailers has addressed the accusations leveled by the city newspaper.
Instead, one has talked about saving American jobs, another has played up his role in impeaching former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, one was about how he’d helped senior citizens, one targeted the evil bankers and another was about his work against sex offenders.
The speaker has been putting “the fear” into traditional Democratic campaign contributors lately about how he might not be able to hold the House. But a longtime friend of Madigan’s insisted last week that the longest-serving House speaker in the state’s history is just clanging the alarm bells as hard as he can in order to raise more money.
Whatever he’s doing, he doesn’t appear to be taking any chances anywhere, including in his own back yard.
Madigan’s 13th Ward organization also is pumping out large numbers of absentee voter applications. A new law is in effect this year that doesn’t require any reasons for voting absentee.
In the past, some ward and township organizations have found themselves in hot water over stretching the reasoning for absentee applications. Before, you were supposed to be leaving town, or in the hospital or something. Now, voters don’t need to say why they want to vote absentee, so Machine wards like Madigan’s have gone back to the old ways.
The statewide Democratic campaigns, of course, are thrilled with this because they need to jack up the city’s vote as much as possible to override what looks like a looming Downstate bloodbath.
The Republicans raised about $3,000 at a recent downtown “fundraiser” for Madigan’s ghost opponent, and a GOP operative joked last week that since Madigan actually was taking his race seriously, they might spend that cash on yard signs. Reminded that he’d be hard-pressed to find any locations for those signs, he said they may be able to find some willing homeowners in Burr Ridge, on the far western end of Madigan’s district. Good luck with that.
