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Poll: Kinzinger crushing Halvorson 49-31
Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * As I told subscribers this morning, The Hill has a new poll showing the 11th Congressional District race isn’t even close. Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson is getting blown out by Republican Adam Kinzinger…
Click here to see the results. They ain’t pretty at all.. A few more questions from the poll… 
* And we have a TV ad. Dan Seals… * And Seals’ Republican opponent Bob Dold has an Internet promo video claiming that Dold is pro-choice no matter what anyone else says… * Roundup…
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- wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 10:57 am:
That’s a whupping for Halvorson. Her negative Social Security spot in on constantly. I don’t think I’ve seen a spot from Kinzinger.
- Former Member of Congress Career Counselor - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:04 am:
Debbie–
Our files suggest that you might be just the person we are looking for to serve as the regional director of an obscure federal agency. Please send us your resume on Nov. 3rd.
- Conservative Veteran - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:05 am:
Dold and Seals are pro-choice. Dold supports requiring minors, who want abortions, to notify a parent, but Seals opposes that. Dold supports banning partial-birth abortion, but Seals opposes the ban.
- Been There - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:11 am:
I know Halvorson has been knocked for her involvement in the district since going to DC but I think that is not true. I know she has been back and active in the community often. So I don’t think that has anything to do with her pitiful numbers. She is just in the wrong district, plain and simple. Just look at Obama’s numbers. He is at 57% disapproving. And with the Congress disapproval numbers at 77% there is no way a democrat wins in this district unless she had happened to vote against Pelosi when she ran for speaker. Some of Halvorsons votes have added to the terrible Congress disapproval numbers but it is more of the national anti incumbent movement then is Debbie’s fault. But unfortunately it looks like she will pay the price.
- Joliet Jackhammers, RIP - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:14 am:
Rich, any word on how much money the National Dems have pumped/will pump into Little Debbie’s campaign coffers? I wonder if they’ll start going towards Foster & Seals instead…and Hare, for that matter.
- Random thought - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:17 am:
Anyone notice that there are a lot of candidates this year named Adam.
- shore - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:31 am:
the dold video is awful. eek.
Kinzinger would be the first chicago area republican to win a house seat over an incumbent democrat since flanagan beat blago in 1994.
The sun-times posted editorial board videos which in kinzinger’s case was really good and plummer’s case was awful. carol marin really tears plummer a new one in it and it explains her column trashing him this morning.
http://www.livestream.com/chicagosuntimeslive/video?clipId=pla_e16df365-4a72-4b79-a0f6-4b8ac46d3e73&utm_source=lslibrary&utm_medium=ui-thumb
- Anon 7 - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:33 am:
It seemed pretty obvious Halverson was in trouble with the negative Social Security Ad playing repeatedly in the Chicago area. Unless she has unlimited resources, it is beyond me why she would be wasting money on network tv in Chicago 5 and 6 weeks before the election. I think this poll is really going to hurt her for any late fundraising from Washington.
- Siriusly - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:41 am:
Shore - how nice it would have been had Flanagan beaten Blago, but alas that was Rosty he beat.
That Dold video is poor quality, maybe a valid message - but looks very cheap.
- Matt - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:45 am:
The last Dold video is still a bit pointless. Has Seals ever said “Dold is anti-choice”? Both the ad, and the mailer the woman is criticizing, talk about his SUPPORTERS being extreme on abortion.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:46 am:
The wave giveth and the wave taketh away.
Kinzinger and his campaign are a prime example that the GOP’s “Young Guns” program is working. Would-be Speaker Boehner and NRCC Chair Pete Sessions need to keep this up.
- jokat - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 11:59 am:
Team Sleep- Kinzinger’s lead has virtually NOTHING to do with the NRCCC/ Young Guns/ Boehner. They were trashing Kinzinger right up until they thought that he’d win. Any victory on election day will be because of the plan/ work of Kinzinger and his team along with a bad year for Dems. Should he win, the NRCC deserves zero credit for it.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:10 pm:
That Halverson ad is the most obnoxious commercial I’ve seen-probably ever.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:26 pm:
Good grief!
Debbie has fallen into a pit.
She won when this district did not want a millionaire concrete mogul after the Wall Street meltdown. But it still is the same district I recommend she not run in back in 08. Her win was a fluke.
Her district is coming home this year to it’s red roots in a red wave election. She did not have a chance once she started drinking the Pelosi Kool Aid. Yeah, she is liberal, and thinking like one was fashionable in some coastal metro areas last year. But this district is not Portland Oregon or Boulder Colorado.
Debbie did not fit this district congressionally and she failed to notice this politically.
Maybe in January she will return to a nice state government office again.
- Been There - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:51 pm:
===Kinzinger would be the first chicago area republican to win a house seat over an incumbent democrat since flanagan beat blago in 1994.===
Shore, this district might technically be Chicago area but I don’t think the comparision is fair. The district is entirely south of I-80 and goes all the way to Bloomington and out to Peru.
VanillaMan hits it on the head. She worked hard the first time and the stars aligned with Wall Street meltdown. She isn’t entirely out of sync with the district. She has championed the veterans and is for concealed carry.
But she would be a lifer if she had some Cook County in her district. Much like her old Senate seat.
- The KQ - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 12:53 pm:
Wordslinger, I saw a Kinzinger ad for the first time yesterday, it was good. I have been saying that the social security ad is going to back fire on her. To me (I am in my 40s) it just looks like a bunch of seniors whining. To my Mom (67) she doesn’t get why they are worried that the retirement age might go up - it won’t effect those that are already retired.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 1:17 pm:
In a district that is very pro-choice, Dold handed Seals this issue by seeking out the help of far right wingers like Penny Pullen in the primary. You made your bed, now sleep in it.
- Xgman - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 1:24 pm:
Dold is pro-choice? That’s not what he told a number of GOP leaders during the primary .
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 1:46 pm:
Jokat, I didn’t say the NRCC was super-heavily involved. The Young Guns program often times will offer other forms of support: phones, volunteer lists, polling and, at times the most important, advice from a senior MOC and his or her staff. A lot of the Young Guns maneuvering is done behind the scenes. But you are correct that Adam has done most of this on his own. He is an impressive candidate who, barring a weird 2012 remap, will be in Congress for a long time.
- Taxmandan - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:07 pm:
I wish Halvorson would cool it with the condescending seniors and blue collar folks. “You don’t know what your doing young man.” Yuk. Awful.
- Kent - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 2:54 pm:
Foster - “rare congressman confident enough to call them as he sees them rather than vote the party line. He has compiled one of the most centrist voting records in Congress.”
Hultgren - “little to indicate he would be anything more than a by-the-numbers party regular.” A typical career politician, responsible for why Washington and Springfield are broken.
The case rested.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 3:10 pm:
Kinzinger is also being “mentored” as part of the Young Guns.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 3:49 pm:
The “Young Guns.” Who is that, Emilio Estevez and Charlie Sheen? What’s next, “The Breakfast Club?” “The Brat Pack?” Or, as blow-dried GOP Congressmen, “The Frat Pack?”
High five!
They should retire that silly name, because it sounds really (insert your adjective here).
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 4:03 pm:
Embarrassing.
- Concerned Voter - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 4:07 pm:
The Halvorson camp is getting desperate I guess. I keep getting calls from branches of my union (local, state, and national), telling me to vote for Halvorson. Sorry, I may be a union member, but I don’t just blindly vote for who you tell me to.
I even got a phone survey, with questions definitely skewed to promote Halvorson, made points about her support of the ethanol industry and the subsidies they get, how she supports it, and how it helps keep/create jobs in America.
The funny thing thou, my caller ID said the call was from Quebec. Did we annex Canada or were those Canadians doing that job?
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 4:12 pm:
Young Guns may be a silly name, but it is an excellent concept. Make fun of the name and laugh all you want, but an overwhelming percentage of the Young Guns will be in the next Congress. It will be the Republicans that get the last laugh.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 4:14 pm:
===The Halvorson camp is getting desperate I guess. I keep getting calls from branches of my union===
That isn’t desperation. That’s campaigning.
- Captain America - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 4:17 pm:
I think it’s both sad and funny that the Blog editor seems to believe it’s BAD that the district wants to get rid of Ms. Halvorson.
Fact of the matter is that the district just doesn’t care for her. Rich, it’s okay to have Republicans win office every so often: a cardinal rule of politics is to not assume the Democrats (or Republicans) have all the answers.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 4:36 pm:
Captain America, you disgrace your cape and mighty shield with your petulant whining.
- from14th - Wednesday, Oct 6, 10 @ 9:27 pm:
Hultgren blindly follows republican and tea party talking points. Same old, same old politician.
Foster is a refreshing change in congress - hard working and smart.
- Liandro - Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 12:14 am:
from14th, Republican talking points and tea party “talking points” aren’t really the same, so you’re comment doesn’t make any sense. As for Foster, he’s already on record consistently voting with his party leaders, and for a “hard working man” he certainly didn’t bother to do much out here in my end of the district.
When he first ran, I didn’t vote for him, but I didn’t actively support his opponent, either. He’s definitely earned my ire since then, and I’m doing what I can to remove him.
- Rayne of Terror - Thursday, Oct 7, 10 @ 10:10 am:
===Kinzinger would be the first chicago area republican to win a house seat over an incumbent democrat since flanagan beat blago in 1994.===
Kinzinger is from McLean County. We are located a THREE hour drive from Chicago.