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Emanuel increases lead, builds huge warchest - Braun outraised by complete unknown

Friday, Jan 21, 2011

* The Tribune has a new poll on the mayor’s race

Those numbers match up pretty well with the January 4-6 Anzalone Liszt Research poll taken for the Teamsters

42 Emanuel
26 Moseley Braun
10 Chico
7 Del Valle

Both polls show gaining strength for Emanuel over previous surveys.

* From the Trib

Braun polled at 6 percent last month but made major inroads among African-American voters. Emanuel was at 32 percent in the previous poll, but he, too, gained black voters. Chico was at 9 percent in the December survey and has picked up white and Latino support since then. […]

Braun, meanwhile, is viewed unfavorably by 30 percent of the city’s electorate — the highest negative score for any mayoral candidate. But Braun also is viewed favorably by 39 percent and continues to enjoy strong support in the black community, where 55 percent viewed her favorably and only 11 percent unfavorably. Emanuel’s scores are similar in that community. […]

As the only major female candidate in the race, Braun also may be counting on the support of women. But Emanuel was doubling up Braun among female voters, 47 percent to 23 percent. And 61 percent of women viewed Emanuel favorably, compared with 37 percent for Braun.

Chico, who is Daley’s former chief of staff, scored a 10 percent gain among white voters since the last Tribune poll.

* As we saw yesterday, Emanuel raised $10.6 million last year, plus another $1.1 million transferred from his congressional account for a total of $11.7 million. There were some big names on his contributor list

Emanuel received $2.6 million in $100,000 chunks, the bulk of which - $1.2 million - came from Chicago private equity investment houses including Citadel Investment Group, Aragon Global Management, Grovesnor Capital Management, and others.

Emanuel also collected $100,000 checks from some Hollywood heavyweights like producer David Geffen, Fox Family Network CEO Haim Saban and William Morris Endeavor agent John Fogelman. Ari Emanuel, the candidate’s brother, is the CEO of William Morris, one of Hollywood’s largest talent agencies.

* More

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange gave Emanuel $200,000, records released Thursday show. He also took in $100,000 apiece from wealthy Chicago businessmen James Crown and Fred Eychaner, plus another $100,000 from Hollywood mogul David Geffen, $75,000 from film director Steven Spielberg and $50,000 from Apple CEO Steve Jobs. […]

Emanuel spent nearly $3.5 million, including $2.2 million to AKPD Message and Media LLC, a publicity firm once run by David Axelrod, now an Obama senior adviser. That left Emanuel with more than $8.3 million to spend on the mayor’s race as of the start of this year.

Though he’s been criticized by his opponents for raising big bucks from outside Chicago, Emanuel’s campaign said 74 percent of his 2,494 contributors live in Cook County and more than half gave him $250 or less.

* And he’s spending it

Demonstrating his expected money advantage over his competitors, mayoral candidate Rahm Emanuel is shelling out big bucks to run a campaign ad during Sunday’s Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers NFC Championship game.

The cost of Emanuel’s ad is $5,000 a second, or $150,000 for the 30-second commercial, according to an industry source familiar with political TV advertising who was not authorized to speak publicly about ad buys. No other mayoral candidate has purchased time during the game so far.

* Carol Moseley Braun filed her campaign finance report at 9:25 this morning. The deadline was midnight. Her report is here. She raised just $446K and had just $164K on hand at the end of December.

* To give you an idea of how lousy this report is, Braun raised far less and had just a fraction on-hand when compared to an almost completely unknown African-American female candidate

Patricia Van Pelt-Watkins, a community activist, raised $500,367 as of Dec 31. More than half of that money, $296,754, came from Joseph Stanford, pastor of Ambassadors for Christ Ministries.

Watkins spent $138,868, leaving her with $361,499 to spend as of Jan. 1.

* At least Braun filed. As of 9:32 this morning, Miguel del Valle had not filed his required disclosure report.

* We’ve known Gery Chico’s numbers for a while now

Gery Chico raised $2.3 million through Dec. 31, according to reports filed today. He has since reported another $98,000 in contributions over $1,000 – for a total of $2.39 million raised. He had $2 million on hand to start the year.

Among Chico’s largest contributors were Bo Zhang, the chairman of American Electronic Products, who gave the candidate $30,000 and Patrick Ryan, the former chairman of Aon, who wrote Chico a $25,000 check.

Chico also received $25,000 from Symon Garber, the president and CEO of Chicago Carriage Cab Co. But the candidate gave the money back to Garber, who is facing millions of dollars in city fines for illegally putting salvaged cars on the street as cabs.

* Related…

* Emanuel pitches Red Line extension, renovations

* Chico rolls out environmental agenda

* Members Absent from Rahm’s Donor List

* Can Emanuel avoid runoff election?

- Posted by Rich Miller        

21 Comments
  1. - just sayin' - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 9:52 am:

    I’ll be shocked if Emanuel even gets a runnoff. He looks unstoppable and his opponents are flailing.


  2. - Skeeter - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 10:20 am:

    Not to take this off track, but speaking of numbers, Bob Fioretti has got only about $100,000 in the bank. He’s got a bunch of challengers. Not sure if any of them have raised money (or are running serious campaigns), but if so, he might be in for a very tough race.


  3. - tired of press - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 10:24 am:

    It is a complete mystery to me why the press (and black leadership) has been excluding Van Pelt-Watkins in favor of Braun. VP-W is actually very smart and appealing, and it turns out she has more money. Incredible.


  4. - dupage dan - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 10:31 am:

    Braun should combine her juggernaut w/that other Illinois powerhouse, Burris. Together they would make a formidable team of losers, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.


  5. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 10:37 am:

    I see Rahm took $15,000 from Jimmy John.

    Maybe he should give the money back so JJ can afford to stay in Illinois?

    :)


  6. - wordslinger - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 10:42 am:

    I still don’t think Emanuel will avoid a runoff, but he’s getting close.

    You have to wonder if Chico will be able to raise a dime after this. The smart money knows that Emanuel has a long memory.


  7. - Pembleton - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 10:50 am:

    What happens to the election if Rahm is knocked off the ballot? Sure, he’ll be plotting his revenge, as wordslinger suggests, but where does that leave the rest of us in this city?


  8. - bored now - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 10:51 am:

    tired of press: the “old guard” in the african-american community once again decided they didn’t need any new blood. you got to fight yourself in, as meeks and braun have done. it’s been holding back the community (and dividing it, as well) for awhile now.

    i’d imagine that robin kelly and david miller would have some interesting things to say about this self-defeating phenomenon…


  9. - Objective Dem - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 11:10 am:

    I’m amazed that a minister can afford to give approximately $300,000 to a mayoral candidate. It would be interested to find out more about who he is.


  10. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 11:12 am:

    OD, would you say that if Willow Creek’s Pastor Bill kicked in a bunch of cash? Just asking…


  11. - Lakefront Liberal - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 11:21 am:

    Wordslinger — just yesterday I got into a converstation with my boss’s boss about the mayor’s race and he said that our company is getting lots of calls from Chico about donations but he is telling him no because they think Rahm will win and they don’t want to be on his bad side. If he is feeling that way then I am sure others are as well.

    It also make me a little sick to my stomach to think of billionaires who know nothing about Chicago politics deciding who our mayor will be. If we want to do campaign finance reform how about limiting contributions to people who reside (assuming we know what that word means!) in the district? I frequently give money to candidates in other areas so it would restrict my ability to do that, but I would gladly trade that ability for the knowledge that the people funding campaigns were the ones most directly affected by the consequences.


  12. - SR - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 11:51 am:

    Rahm had better get some of those billionaire donors to invest in Chicago as they invested in his campaign. I see Steve Jobs in there… I’m sure there are many classrooms that could use computers.

    I’m surprised by the high percentage of Latino support for Rahm, and the low percentage of African American support for Chico. I can see Chico peeling off some of Rahm’s white and Latino support in the coming weeks, but can he get enough AA voters, or put up a serious challenge without?


  13. - Objective Dem - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 11:57 am:

    I would definitely say the same thing about any religious figure who can donate that much money. It doesn’t matter what race or religion.

    I don’t think ministers and religious leaders need to take a vow of poverty and deserve to earn a decent income. But $300,000 is real money. There are very very few religious leaders who have that type of money to give away.

    And I’m probably too cynical, but I have to ask what is in it for him.


  14. - amalia - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 12:01 pm:

    Miguel, do the right thing….


  15. - Lakefront Liberal - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 12:23 pm:

    Amalia — if by “do the right thing” you are suggesting that Miguel back Chico — how can he back someone who epitomizes everything he is against? If Chico were slightly less disgusting I would be supporting him, but how can I support someone who has enriched himself off of pay-to-play politics? Someone who is so a part of the culture of corruption that he was holding a $50K fundraiser for Blago the night before his arrest?

    Miguel endorsing Chico will not prevent Rahm from becoming mayor, all it will do is drag Miguel down and take away one of the few ethical, progressive, independent political leaders we have. He may not be running an effective campaign, but that doesn’t mean he has no role to play in the future of this city, and part of that role means not selling out to someone like Chico.


  16. - Responsa - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 1:30 pm:

    Not having to have a runoff election would save the city quite a bit of money.


  17. - Statesman - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 1:56 pm:

    “Chico also received $25,000 from Symon Garber, the president and CEO of Chicago Carriage Cab Co. But the candidate gave the money back to Garber, who is facing millions of dollars in city fines for illegally putting salvaged cars on the street as cabs.”

    Gotta respect that. Classy move.


  18. - amalia - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 2:13 pm:

    Miguel is irrelevant, but he should file the papers and early enough to prove his irrelevance.


  19. - Anon - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 3:31 pm:

    Not to change topic here, but has anyone else noted that contrary to popular opinion, the rank and file of the FOP actually voted for Rahm (by around 100 votes over Chico). The executive board of the FOP decided to endorse Chico regardless, stating that this was what they had been hearing in departments recently after Rahms pensions comment. Still, they ignored the rank and file’s vote. I also am really surprised at the African American support for Rahm.


  20. - Sinister - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 3:43 pm:

    Anon…I suggest you visit second city cop’s blog. You’re statement wiill be proven wrong. The rank and file are with Chico.


  21. - Boone Logan Square - Friday, Jan 21, 11 @ 4:20 pm:

    I expect in the final 7-10 days before the runoff, Rahm will air a series of highly positive ads showing him with President Obama (much as State Senator Obama ran ads with Sheila Simon in February 2004). He’s close enough now that increasing his positive message in the closing days could get him over 50%.

    When Daley announced his retirement, I thought a cluster of strong candidates would get in and make this a real race. Imagine if Tom Dart, Anita Alvarez, and (despite the taint of scandal) Jesse Jackson Jr. were running for mayor. Each would have a path to victory, or at least to a runoff. (Say what you will about Jackson, but he can turn out the vote.) I’ve been surprised at the field.

    While it is possible that Carol Moseley Braun and Gery Chico will have tremendous ground operations, I haven’t seen any evidence of that other than Chico has secured support from Burke and unions. That may not be enough to prevent Emanuel from ending this in the first round.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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