* Greg Hinz has some useful react…
[Election law attorney Andy Raucci] said it is quite possible, maybe even likely, that the high court will agree with the Appellate Court.
“There are all sorts of court precedents that say you can impose higher standards,” Mr. Raucci said. “I have felt from the beginning that the odds of him losing increased as the case went higher up in the courts, farther away from the newspaper editorial boards.”
Burt Odelson, the attorney who brought the successful challenge to Mr. Emanuel’s residency, thinks there’s a real possibility the high court won’t even take the case.
The Supreme Court generally steps in when lower courts have conflicting rulings, he said. That’s not true here, he continued. “The law is the law.”
* Could Emanuel run as a write-in? Yes. Could he serve? Maybe not…
On the one hand, there is no legal process to stop Emanuel from running a write-in campaign, according Ken Menzel, a legal counsel with the Illinois State Board of Elections.
“We don’t have a challenge process for write-in candidates in Illinois,” he explained. “You can’t prevent a person from being a write-in candidate.” […]
On the other hand — and more importantly — the state residency statute in question in the case decided today governs eligibility to hold public office, not eligibility to be on a ballot.
“The basis of the challenge is the allegation he’s not eligible for office,” Menzel said.
The finding that Emanuel failed to meet the state’s strict residency requirement, if not reversed, means a write-in campaign would begin in environment of uncertainty as to whether Emanuel could assume office, were he to win.
* The Hotline looks at the future…
But Chico has even more to gain from today’s ruling in the immediate future, said Chicago political consultant Eric Adelstein. Chico finished third overall in the Tribune poll and is the leading Hispanic candidate in the race. But Emanuel was carrying a plurality of the Hispanic vote in the survey with 30 percent, with the rest of that bloc divided between Chico and City Clerk Miguel del Valle, who most experts give little chance in the race.
“It’s likely to be Braun and Chico,” said Dick Simpson, a former alderman and the head of the political science department at the University of Illinois Chicago.
Under that scenario, the key question would be who wins the support of white voters, among whom Emanuel had enjoyed a commanding lead. If the Tribune poll is any guide, Chico has a huge advantage over Braun in this demographic. He finished second to Emanuel among whites with 25 percent, while Braun received just 7 percent of support among that group. Perhaps even more troubling for Braun, half of white voters view her unfavorably, according to the poll.
And Chico has other factors working in his favor. “He has more money and a heavier ad campaign,” Simpson said.
* And the Sun-Times has already published an editorial…
The truest words issued by an Illinois Appellate Court Justice on Monday were these:
Striking Rahm Emanuel’s name from the ballot for mayor of Chicago unfairly “disenfranchises … every voter in Chicago who would consider voting for him.”
Unfortunately, Justice Bertina E. Lampkin wrote those words in a dissent of the court’s majority opinion, which did indeed rule Emanuel off the ballot. […]
Inexplicably, however, the Appellate Court majority also declined Monday to certify this case for immediate review by the Supreme Court, apparently not deeming it a matter of great enough importance.
Now Emanuel’s lawyers must petition the high court themselves, a time-consuming process, while the clock ticks.
* Mayoral ballot to print without Emanuel
* Candidates React to Rahm News
* With Rahm Tossed, Del Valle Gets Top Spot on Ballot
* ‘We will prevail,’ Emanuel says after court boots him off ballot