Apparently, it’s still a great safe haven
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I try to ignore national politics no matter what, but this is a fascinating story…
Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields fell to their lowest levels since February 2009 on Monday, after a U.S. credit dowgrade sparked broad risk aversion and added to the appeal of U.S. government debt.
The notes rose more than 2 points in price, with yields falling as low as 2.33 percent, the lowest rate in 2 1/2 years.
Translation: S&P downgraded US government debt on Friday. Supposedly in reaction, the stock market fell hard on Monday and spooked investors rushed to put their money in… US government debt.
Maybe Illinois should ask S&P to downgrade its bonds again. Just kidding… kinda.
…Adding… Sun-Times…
The state of Illinois has not yet been told of any change in its rating, said Kelly Kraft, Gov. Quinn’s budget spokeswoman. Illinois’ current rating from S&P is an A-Plus with a negative outlook.
Speculation is that, if S&P downgrades the 50 states’ ratings, Illinois overall rating would drop to A2-Minus, which could mean a one-half of 1 percentage point increase in interest rate payments on future bond issues. For a $2 billion to $3 billion capital plan bond issue such as the state is planning this fall, such an increase would cost hundreds of millions more in interest.
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Unsurprising stuff
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The horse racing industry has wanted slots at tracks for a very long time, so Jim Edgar’s involvement isn’t really much of a surprise…
Gov. Pat Quinn was lobbied Friday by a man who once walked in his shoes.
Former Gov. Jim Edgar, an avowed horseman, was among a group of horse racing officials urging Quinn to sign a massive expansion of gambling.
Edgar couldn’t be reached for comment after the meeting, but a Quinn spokeswoman said the message from Edgar and the others was clear.
“It was a group of proponents of the bill,” said Brooke Anderson.
* Totally unsurprising. From a press release…
Former State Representative and current Black Hawk College Trustee Mike Boland will make his official announcement of his campaign for election to Congress from the 17th Congressional District of Illinois. Boland will cite his lifetime of service to the people of Illinois and promote solutions to the issues facing our nation and specifically the needs of our region of Illinois.
* The headline is surprising, “ComEd: Smart meters could save customers nearly $3 billion,” but the story shows what an unsurprising exaggeration the claim really is…
Commonwealth Edison says customers could save $2.8 billion over 20 years if the utility installs “smart meters” that use digital technology to give homeowners details about their electric use and pricing, a study it commissioned shows. [Emphasis added for obvious reasons.]
* And while this may surprise some of you, it didn’t surprise me…
As the chart below demonstrates, the sharp decline over the past 40 years in the percentage of workers organized in unions has been associated with an equally sharp drop in the share of the nation’s income going to the middle class — those in the second, third and forth income quintiles
The chart…
* Roundup…
* ADDED: IRS: Nearly 1,500 millionaires paid no federal income tax in 2009
* Attorney general ordered to pay legal fees in FOIA lawsuit
* Illinois proves an amendment doesn’t guarantee balanced budget
* How Edward Vrdolyak once helped Rod Blagojevich
* Sears explores move, but experts have their doubts
* Radio ads to attack Schilling’s votes - Democrats taking aim at GOP lawmakers who supported House budget
* Wall Street’s Tax on Main Street
* Tracking Chicago’s TIF Spending
* Power-Upgrade Plans Spark Illinois Storm - State Leaders, Consumer Advocates Say Proposed Changes to Prevent Outages Would Be Too Lucrative for Two Utilities
* Quinn signs bill to study offshore wind energy
* Large wind company opens North American headquarters in Chicago
* Illinois lost 56,000 jobs this year? Not really.
* Kay pans state’s business climate
* Federal lawmakers want Illinois to approve concealed carry
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Question of the day
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller
* On Friday, I asked you to rate Gov. Pat Quinn’s job performance on a scale of 1 to ten, with 1 being the worst and ten the best. He didn’t do too well.
Today, how about we rate House Speaker Michael Madigan’s job performance this year? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
57 Comments
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Lots of new faces coming our way
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column is about redistricting…
Redistricting is a time for stock-taking; for looking back and looking ahead.
State legislators who’ve been around a while are suddenly faced with the often stark reality of signing on for another ten years. They add a decade to their current age and wonder if they want to be in the game that much longer.
Some decide to stick with it for just one more election so they can make extra sure their party holds their seat.
Some decide to retire right away, figuring their party has drawn the map solidly enough to ensure a suitable replacement.
Legislators in the minority party are far more likely to be mapped in with fellow party members and then discover that they don’t want to face the prospect of running in a primary, so they retire.
Others decide to use the opportunity to move up the political ladder. The congressional districts were redrawn, which gave state Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria) a possible opening. He took it.
If history is any guide, we’re likely to see a raft of retirement announcements in the next few days, weeks, months and even years.
The numbers so far have been impressive. Republican Sen. Larry Bomke and GOP Reps. David Winters and Franco Coladipietro have already announced that they aren’t running again. Democratic Rep. Dan Reitz resigned last month and was replaced by Congressman Jerry Costello’s son, Jerry Costello, II. Some didn’t even wait for the new map to be finished, like Sens. Rickey Hendon, Brad Burzynski, Dale Risinger, Lou Viverito and Gary Dahl. The rumor mill is ablaze with speculation about other impending retirements, resignations and people moving up the ladder.
There are those who think that the players never change in Springfield. Not true. And the remap years are a major reason people move on.
I started writing about Illinois politics in 1990. Not a single incumbent state Senator from that year is still serving today. Senate President John Cullerton was around, but he was in the House in 1990.
And while Michael Madigan was elected House Speaker before I was legally able to drink alcohol, only a small handful of House members from 1990 are still around. Madigan started out in 1971. House Majority Leader Barb Currie’s first year was 1979. Rep. David Harris started in 1983, but was beaten in 1992 and then came back this year. Reps. Mary Flowers and Ron Stephens were sworn into office in 1985 and Rep. Lou Lang and Monique Davis came along two years later. Rep. David Leitch was first appointed to the Senate in 1986 and started his House service in 1989. That’s just eight people out of 118 seats — or less than 7 percent.
Donne Trotter (1988), Jeff Schoenberg (1990) and, of course, Cullerton (1979) were also in the House back in 1990, but they’re now in the Senate.
The point is, I’m never truly surprised when a legislator announces his or her retirement. But despite all that history, I was a bit taken aback when Sen. Susan Garrett (D-Lake Forest) announced last month that she wouldn’t run again.
Garrett, who turned 61 last February, is one of those people you figure would never go away. Although she represents the tony North Shore, she seemed to thrive on the bare-knuckled aspect of day-to-day politics.
But Garrett said last month that she came to the conclusion that she “didn’t want to be a career politician.”
I was also a little shocked when Rep. Ron Stephens (R-Greenville) abruptly resigned last week. Except for two years in exile when he lost his seat in 1990 and won it back when the Republicans gave him a new district in the 1991 remap, Stephens has been around for what seems like forever.
The Democrats mapped Stephens into the same district as Rep. John Cavaletto (R-Salem). Stephens, however, could’ve moved into a neighboring, GOP district and likely have run opposed.
Then again, the economy is not all that conducive to selling real estate these days — a problem which is weighing far more heavily on Republican incumbents than ever before during past remap games.
Despite the perception, legislators as a group are not wealthy people. Most are facing the same problems as everyone else. Many of their homes are practically unsellable in the current economy or are “underwater,” or both. Purchasing or renting another home in a new district is simply not an option for many pols these days.
The bottom line is change is coming. Or, at least lots of new faces.
* Related…
* GOP remap would split Champaign, Vermilion counties: The plan places Johnson in the same congressional district as freshman Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Manteno. Further, it splits Champaign and Vermilion counties approximately in half, with the district lines running just south of Champaign-Urbana.
* Republicans say Democrats’ plan tears apart the Southland
* Dissatisfaction + redistricting = huge turnover in Congress
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Bad news everywhere you look
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The cuts continue…
Longer lines, shorter hours and fewer services at pharmacies will be the result of a proposal by Gov. Pat Quinn’s administration to slash the reimbursement rate for Medicaid patients’ prescriptions, according to a new group formed to fight the rate cuts.
But officials at the Department of Healthcare and Family Services say Illinois’ debt-riddled state government needs to save money, and the proposed rates are in line with what the private sector pays.
The department proposed the new rates, which would cut reimbursement rates for Medicaid patients’ prescription drugs by 4 percent, on July 29. The public has 45 days to comment on the rates to the General Assembly’s Joint Committee on Administrative Rules. JCAR could vote on the new rates in October.
The state estimates it will save $42 million out of roughly $1.5 billion in Medicaid prescription costs per year. Pharmacists say that while the cut appears small in the context of how much Illinois spends on Medicaid prescriptions, their profit margins are small – often as low as 2 percent.
“All of a sudden, you’re taking all of our profit,” said David Vite, president of the Illinois Retail Merchants Association, a member of the new coalition, which is called Pharmacy Choice and Access Now.
* There’s no progress yet on asset sales…
It’s been over a year since the governor issued an order calling for the sale of surplus state property as a way to raise money during the fiscal meltdown. At the time, we compared it to a big garage sale.
So, what did the state sell and how much was raised?
Actually, the net effect of Quinn’s edict thus far has been a bill that will cost the state $750,000 in the end.
That’s because the Illinois Department of Central Management Services, which oversees state property, has hired a consultant, Jones Lang LaSalle, to study the situation and then recommend what property to sell, when to sell it and how much to sell it for.
* While the State Fair is doing much better, it’s still not paying for itself…
Over a nine-year period ending in 2009, the Illinois State Fair cut its annual loss nearly in half.
But according to the most recent audit available of fair finances, the 10-day event still lost nearly $2.8 million two years ago. Some officials question that expense at a time when state government continues to struggle with paying its bills and just enacted a budget that makes cuts to dozens of human-service programs.
The 2011 state fair begins Friday.
“I love the state fair, and I’ll be back again, but you have to be running it in a revenue-neutral way,” said Sen. Matt Murphy of Palatine, the Senate Republicans’ point man on the state budget.
* We should probably expect a “solution” to this wholly manufactured (by the governor) crisis sometime this week…
Illinois’ regional superintendents of schools agreed this past week to continue working, more than a month after Gov. Pat Quinn eliminated their salaries from the state budget.
But Robert A. Daiber, superintendent of the Madison County Regional Office of Education and president of the Illinois Association of Regional Superintendents of Schools, said he’s not sure how long that agreement will last. And, he said, he’s not sure what effect that could have on the start of the new school year.
“Is there going to be a statewide shutdown? I can’t say. Will they say at Labor Day, ‘I’ve had enough?’ I don’t know,” Daiber said. “There are people very, very disgruntled about missing a third paycheck.”
* And this may be one more nail in the coffin for the legislative scholarship program…
Federal investigators have opened a criminal probe into legislative scholarships that lobbyist and former state Rep. Robert Molaro awarded as a lawmaker, the Chicago Sun-Times has learned.
Two rounds of subpoenas related to Molaro’s scholarships have been delivered to the Illinois State Board of Education since April, one as recently as July 20, records show.
The first subpoena from U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald’s office, dated April 26, sought paperwork concerning tuition waivers worth more than $94,000 that Molaro awarded to four children of his campaign contributor Phil Bruno, an Oak Lawn real estate broker.
The subpoena from two weeks ago casts a broader net, seeking “all documents relating to the Illinois General Assembly Legislative Scholarships nominated/issued from former State Representative Robert S. Molaro.”
* Related…
* Sinaloa Cartel boss who supplied Chicago: I was a DEA snitch
* Illinois braces for fallout from U.S. credit rating downgrade - Some in Chicago predict a market slide; others see lower rating as a ‘nonevent’
* What will toll increase mean for you?
* Return of implements puts farm back in state fair
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* Venture capitalist Bruce Rauner made some noises about running for governor in 2010. The Sun-Times apparently believes he is more serious about the next governor’s election, which is more than three years away…
Bruce Rauner, the venture capitalist who helped make Mayor Rahm Emanuel a millionaire, is edging toward a run for governor of Illinois as a Republican, prominent Illinois Republicans tell the Sun-Times.
Rauner, 55, is senior principal and chairman of Chicago-based GTCR Golder Rauner LLC, a Chicago-based private equity firm.
He recently garnered attention as a prime mover of the education reform legislation that passed Springfield, smashing teachers’ right to strike and paving the way for longer school days in Chicago.
Rauner has been testing the waters and telling other Republicans he is gearing up to run, senior elected Republicans and Republican campaign veterans told the Sun-Times. Rauner did not return a call seeking comment.
Other Republicans looking at the 2014 race are Sens. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard, Treasurer Dan Rutherford and possibly even Congressman Aaron Schock.
* Rauner has contributed over a million dollars to state and local campaign funds over the years. The biggest recipient of his largesse was Forrest Claypool, who received three big contributions totaling $250,000 in 2001, 2005 and 2006. Former Mayor Daley received $200,000. The Illinois Republican Party and the House Republicans were also major beneficiaries. George Ryan got a check in 1998.
* Last year, Rauner floated an idea to raise a pile of money to lease vacant public school buildings for charter schools. Rauner has his own charter school. He was also heavily involved in Stand for Children Illinois’ major push into Illinois politics last year. His name was floated as a possible Chicago schools CEO and Rauner said he “cried both times” he saw the movie “Waiting for Superman.”
His firm does a lot of work with the outsourcing industry, which could prove to be a valuable mining opportunity for opponents.
* Related…
* Illinois Treasurer Fears Credit Downgrade could Affect State
* Maximum property tax hike sought for Chicago public schools
* No layoff details yet in CPS budget cuts
* CPS seeks higher taxes in nearly $6 billion budget
* Editorial: Emanuel’s ‘no-tax’ pledge doesn’t add up
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