Unsurprising stuff
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The horse racing industry has wanted slots at tracks for a very long time, so Jim Edgar’s involvement isn’t really much of a surprise…
Gov. Pat Quinn was lobbied Friday by a man who once walked in his shoes.
Former Gov. Jim Edgar, an avowed horseman, was among a group of horse racing officials urging Quinn to sign a massive expansion of gambling.
Edgar couldn’t be reached for comment after the meeting, but a Quinn spokeswoman said the message from Edgar and the others was clear.
“It was a group of proponents of the bill,” said Brooke Anderson.
* Totally unsurprising. From a press release…
Former State Representative and current Black Hawk College Trustee Mike Boland will make his official announcement of his campaign for election to Congress from the 17th Congressional District of Illinois. Boland will cite his lifetime of service to the people of Illinois and promote solutions to the issues facing our nation and specifically the needs of our region of Illinois.
* The headline is surprising, “ComEd: Smart meters could save customers nearly $3 billion,” but the story shows what an unsurprising exaggeration the claim really is…
Commonwealth Edison says customers could save $2.8 billion over 20 years if the utility installs “smart meters” that use digital technology to give homeowners details about their electric use and pricing, a study it commissioned shows. [Emphasis added for obvious reasons.]
* And while this may surprise some of you, it didn’t surprise me…
As the chart below demonstrates, the sharp decline over the past 40 years in the percentage of workers organized in unions has been associated with an equally sharp drop in the share of the nation’s income going to the middle class — those in the second, third and forth income quintiles
The chart…
* Roundup…
* ADDED: IRS: Nearly 1,500 millionaires paid no federal income tax in 2009
* Attorney general ordered to pay legal fees in FOIA lawsuit
* Illinois proves an amendment doesn’t guarantee balanced budget
* How Edward Vrdolyak once helped Rod Blagojevich
* Sears explores move, but experts have their doubts
* Radio ads to attack Schilling’s votes - Democrats taking aim at GOP lawmakers who supported House budget
* Wall Street’s Tax on Main Street
* Tracking Chicago’s TIF Spending
* Power-Upgrade Plans Spark Illinois Storm - State Leaders, Consumer Advocates Say Proposed Changes to Prevent Outages Would Be Too Lucrative for Two Utilities
* Quinn signs bill to study offshore wind energy
* Large wind company opens North American headquarters in Chicago
* Illinois lost 56,000 jobs this year? Not really.
* Kay pans state’s business climate
* Federal lawmakers want Illinois to approve concealed carry
- Fed up - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 2:18 pm:
Seems like Quinn isn’t going to sign the gambling expansion bill. I don’t know enough about the details of the bill but I do think a casino in Chicago and slots and video poker at the airports would be a good idea.
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 2:24 pm:
- And while this may surprise some of you, it didn’t surprise me… -
What? You mean when companies use cheaper labor to increase their profit margins that money doesn’t magically trickle back down to the middle class? Blasphemy.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 2:26 pm:
If you want a full picture of the Illinois economy, check out the BLS site here:
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.il.htm
Please notice there are about 50k less people employed in the state since January, 2011. Unfortunately, the data is a couple of months old.
- Fed up - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 2:34 pm:
How much of the union membership shrinking can be blamed on unions getting greedy with silly work rules and exhorbanite pay for unskilled labor. Some unions priced themselves out of good jobs. CEO’s shouldn’t be making tens of millions and autoworkers with a GED shouldn’t be making $40 an hour. Hopefully unions go back to protecting workers rights and safety and insuring a decent wage.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 2:42 pm:
“Researchers believe that changes in the labor market and, to a certain extent, household composition affected the long-run increase in income inequality. The wage distribution has become considerably more unequal with workers at the top experiencing real wage gains and those at the bottom real wage losses. These changes reflect relative shifts in demand for labor differentiated on the basis of education and skill. At the same time, long-run changes in society’s living arrangements have taken place also tending to exacerbate household income differences. For example, divorces, marital separations, births out of wedlock, and the increasing age at first marriage have led to a shift away from married-couple households to single-parent families and nonfamily households. Since nonmarried-couple households tend to have lower income and income that are less equally distributed than other types of households (partly because of the likelihood of fewer earners in them), changes in household composition have been associated with growing income inequality.”
Source:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/inequality/middleclass.html
- 47th Ward - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 2:43 pm:
I think an interesting overlay for the chart would be to document the decline in manufacturing jobs over the same period. My guess is all three lines would have similar slopes.
Household income has been flat for a generation. The decline in union membership is a symptom of the larger disease, which is we don’t make anything here anymore. Who wants to buy a $1,500 microwave oven if the Chinese are flooding the market with $99 microwaves?
It’ll take another generation for Chinese consumers to be able to afford iPads. In the meantime, I’d expect the numbers on the chart to continue the downward trend, cheered on by the anti-union crowd that hasn’t yet figured out how to off-shore teachers, police and firefighters.
- Aldyth - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 2:57 pm:
What does it matter if your smart meter would save you money? As soon as it does, the power companies request a rate hike because they need at least the same amount of money they are bringing in now.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 2:58 pm:
Cinci, did you highlight the census report as evidence in support of gay marriage? That would be a surprise.
Seriously, if you agree with that excerpt, shouldn’t you favor expanding marriage to all couples who want it?
- Wensicia - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 2:59 pm:
The unions were instrumental in causing the redistribution of wealth from rich business owners to the working class, which became the middle class. You’re now seeing the reverse, with most of the country’s wealth moving back to the top 10% or less.
- Ebcdic - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:05 pm:
Amazing.. Edgar not only is chairman of the board of an electronic gambling syndicate, he also is in to the horses. Why should we support his personal agenda? We have to much gambling in Illinois already and our state does not need any more.
- OneMan - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:13 pm:
Ebcdic why should be support your personal agenda against expanding gaming?
- Bill White - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:14 pm:
The off shore wind link is interesting.
National wind maps suggest that offshore Lake Michigan has some of the best wind patterns for wind energy production of anywhere in the United States.
Wisconsin and Michigan might be better situated to exploit this resource however Chicago could be well situated to finance and manage these projects.
- Lil Enchilada - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:15 pm:
That makes about 6 or 7 Democratic candidates in running for the 17th. What a mess it should be.
- railrat - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:29 pm:
its tragic that the membership decline and middle class struggles are lockstep, the unfortunate truth is that the “Labor Leaders” of today are similar to many legislators , do whats needed to get elected than do whats needed to stay elected, regardless of what or how the membership/consituents struggle! Its all about GREED …Gompers would be livid!
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:36 pm:
47th,
If you look back, I have said that individuals should be able to enter into any co-habitation arrangement they wish. I also said that I believe that marriage is the union of one man and one women. Furthermore, I do not think that an organization should be excluded from government contracts because of their religious beliefs.
The excerpt indicates that the lack of stable households containing two partners is a major cause of income shifting. I do not think that unionization has anything to do with the loss of middle-class income, which instead is a result of a destabilized family.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:42 pm:
Bill White,
Given the fact that the Great Lakes is a potential source of wind energy, should not the market decide whether or not such structures are built? And shouldn’t industry fund any study without the aid of government?
I read an interesting study last week that says that wind energy is one of the least efficient and environmentally unsound method of alternate energy production. The argument:
1.) Since windmills do not run all the time, the grid would demand that alternate back-up power be available to take up the capacity when windmills cannot be used.
2.) Back up generators would necessarily be fossil fueled.
3.) Since the generators would be needed on immediate basis, they would need to be running in idle or back-up mode ALL of the time, wasting fuel and creating emissions.
- zatoichi - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:47 pm:
Follow up to 47th Ward, How many people are willing to work at the salary level needed to build that $99 micro and stay in business? How many companies are able to pay more than their customers are willing to pay. The equation of (High salary) + (Cheap sales price) simply does not balance for most businesses. As you move to a service orientation you are simply stirring a shrinking pot of dollars not creating new product. Peal off profits and what do you think is left? That dropping chart.
- Willie Stark - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:48 pm:
Cincinnatus - could your provide a link or reference to the study you mention, please?
- 47th Ward - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:49 pm:
I’m just busting your marbles Cinci. I’d argue that gay marriage would increase stability, and thus lessen the inequality, but I don’t think you’d agree.
I’d be interested then, to see if you can use the census data to track income inequality and “destabilized families” over the same period. I don’t think families are becoming less stable at the rates that middle income families are hurting, which would undermine your point. Moreover, income inequality leads to destabilized families as two parents must seek employment. So I think your point is a hill of beans.
- walter sobchak - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 3:59 pm:
Re: the chart. Correlation does not imply causation no matter how delicious the political point some want to make. There have been so many other massive changes in the market since 1967 among workers, in technologies, and in government redistribution of income as to make it meaningless.
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 4:05 pm:
- Since the generators would be needed on immediate basis, they would need to be running in idle or back-up mode ALL of the time, wasting fuel and creating emissions. -
This is bunk. There are these things called batteries that can store energy when the grid doesn’t need it and immediately kick in when it does and the windmill isn’t turning. Also, do you really think these devices just all of a sudden shut down and everybody is completely caught off guard? You sure you went to engineering school?
- cynical - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 4:10 pm:
From a strictly mathematical viewpoint, that graph is meaningless. The union membership is expressed as a percentage on the left side, and the middle class share is a different scale on the right side. The membership percent line shows a drop from about 28 to 13 percent (a differnce of 15), while the middle class share drops from 53 to 46 (a difference of 7). This doesn’t prove correlation. For example, if the scale on the right would have been 0 to 54 instead of 42 to 54, the slope of the middle class share line would appear much less severe. The point is the scale was chosen specifically to make the two lines coincide. It just shows that both declined about at a fairly constant rate. If the lines would have had some ups and downs that corresponded then that might suggest a correlation, but this graph just says “they both went down, therefore one caused the other”, which is not valid. As they say “lies, damned lies, and statistics”.
- dave - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 4:14 pm:
**As the chart below demonstrates, the sharp decline over the past 40 years in the percentage of workers organized in unions has been associated with an equally sharp drop in the share of the nation’s income going to the middle class — those in the second, third and forth income quintiles**
I am an adamant union supporter, but this assertion, along with the corresponding chart, is garbage. The chart manipulates the data by changing the scales to imply an “equally sharp drop” that doesn’t exist.
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 4:19 pm:
- I do not think that unionization has anything to do with the loss of middle-class income, which instead is a result of a destabilized family. -
Ok, let’s say this is true. I don’t have the time to do the research on this, but if that were the case the overall share of income going to the lower and middle class should be the same, the share going to the lower would just be increasing. The share going to the wealthiest people should remain the same as well. My gut feeling is that this isn’t the case, which would lead me to believe there is more going on than just the destabilization of families. Let me know what you find out.
- Truth Seeker - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 4:23 pm:
Cincy, Dave, and others….thank you for “peeling the onion”. It is why I enjoy this site. Nothing goes unchallenged.
- George Mitterwald's Gambit - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 4:25 pm:
Claiming an “equally sharp drop” and citing this union membership chart as evidence is, as my 13 year old son would say, bullcrap. The intellectually honest approach would be to run the right hand scale all the way down to zero (rather than 42). Oh, but wait, that would make it clear the decline in middle class share was not nearly as steep. Can’t have that!
Seriously, there is no doubt a decline in union membership has coincided with a decline in middle class share of wages. But this is the proverbial (ab)use of statistics in the way a drunk uses a lamppost: for support rather than illumination. For shame!
- Bill White - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 4:46 pm:
@Cincinnatus
None of our sources of baseload grid energy operate without significant government subsidy. None of them. Not coal, not natural gas, not nuclear. Especially not nuclear.
Anyway, the power storage issue is real however the best solution I have read about is to use surplus energy to pump water uphill (such as to the top of Michigan dunes with Muskegon being one possible location.
When the wind dies, allow the water to run back down into the lake, turning a turbine.
Europe is building offshore wind very aggressively and will soon have real world economic return results we can study. Facts not theory.
But in any event, I stand by my original point.
Offshore Lake Michigan has the best steady winds in the United States - far better than Bloomington IL or Peoria.
- Happy Returns - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 4:47 pm:
Willie Stark - “… could your provide a link or reference to the study you mention, please?”
Is the google broken on your pc?
There are plenty of data points in that post to find that study or an article referencing it in the time it takes to say ’source please’…
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 4:52 pm:
Willie Start,
http://www.forbes.com/2011/07/19/wind-energy-carbon.html
47th,
There is a study done by the CDC that goes back to the ’70’s that shows an ever-decreasing marriage rate that would track with Rich’s graph. Don’t have the link handy. Also, notice that Rich’s charts uses two different ordinate rates, as cynical and dave point out.
STL,
I’d love to see your megawatt battery bank that could keep a grid going for a couple of days. Get back to me when you engineer it.
- Bill White - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 5:00 pm:
Pat Quinn’s offshore wind study absolutely should include the Bentek analysis that Cincinnatus links.
Also too, they should study what the Germans and the Dutch and the Brits are doing with offshore wind.
As for power storage, I also am skeptical of using batteries. Pumped water storage, however, seems more viable,
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 5:29 pm:
Cinci - You’re saying generators will have to run 24/7 to be ready to power the grid when the mills aren’t turning. I don’t recall saying that the batteries were going to support the grid for days. Try to think it through before typing pal.
- Willie Stark - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 6:41 pm:
Happy Returns: Wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? Do you hate fictional populist governors of southern states? It’s a matter of courtesy in a discussion when you cite a study to at least indicate where it’s from - that could have a bearing on the discussion. Maybe others would find it helpful. No?
Oh, I see it’s from Forbes. Bastion of independent analysis and opinion.
Cinci: thank you for the courtesy and civility. Much obliged. You are a gentleman.
Happy: take note!
- Anonymous - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 7:35 pm:
This was interesting in the sidebar to the Vrdolyak story:
It involves former Chrysler/Dodge dealer Gerald W. Gorman, who is the husband of Cook County Commissioner Elizabeth Doody Gorman (R-Orland Park) and also is a contractual employee of Illinois state Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka.
. . . .
Gerald Gorman — who declined to comment on the pending case — started work in April for Topinka, a Republican, under a six-month contract paying him $36,000 to get local governments to file required financial reports with the comptroller’s office.
“At six months, we’ll review his performance and determine whether it’s beneficial for the office for him to continue or whether the relationship ends there,” says Brad Hahn, Topinka’s spokesman. “There’s a backlog. Gerry has been working on that and has been getting results.”
Paying a crony the equivalent of $72k a year to remind locak governments to file reports? Couldn’t an office assistant do that?
- Angry Chicagoan - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 7:42 pm:
The union chart is important. Britain has seen a similar collapse in union membership and similar increases in wealth inequality not to mention similarly severe economic recessions and budget deficits. France and Germany, on the other hand, have not. And their governments are financially more stable, especially Germany, and they did not see nearly such a severe recession as the US and Britain. Germany continues to require 50 percent union representation on corporate boards, and it continues to have as large a trade surplus as China despite having only one-fifteenth the population and a substantially smaller economy.
Perhaps, when we ask whether US workers can compete on cost, we’re asking the wrong question. If German workers — more expensive than US ones — can compete, then something else must be stopping US workers from competing. Union-busting and tax laws that favor outsourcing and rock-star executive packages over worker training and pay would be prime suspects in my view, and I’m sure there are many other factors we’re ignoring.
- Happy Returns - Monday, Aug 8, 11 @ 9:25 pm:
Willie - Wrong side of the bed, right side of the dirt.
I’m gonna go ahead and move $5 from one pocket to the other here. My personal bet paid off and you proved my point. True, maybe others find a ’source’ helpful, but most of the time people do what you did - Cinci brings an idea, you ask for a source, and then when he does the ‘polite’ thing, you dismiss it out of hand based on the source - completely ignoring the substance.
Is that the ‘polite’? That type of behavior is directly in contrast with polite discussion - it’s just a distraction from the ideas onto meta-topics like ‘appropriate sources’, and it serves as a disincentive to posting links/sources. Why post a link if people like you just use it as a springboard to show off their prejudices against certain publications?
Forbes didn’t even do the study, they just reported on it. Do you care enough to find out who _did_ do the study? And who paid for it?