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*** UPDATED x1 *** 10th Dem CD Poll: Sheyman 45, Schneider 27

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Policy Polling has a new survey on the 10th Congressional District Democratic primary

Ilya Sheyman 45%
Brad Schneider 27%
John Tree 7%
Vivek Bavda 4%
Not sure 16%

629 likely Democratic primary voters, taken between March 11-14.

* Sheyman’s support appears more solidified…

Is your mind made up to support this candidate, or could you still change your mind?
Ilya Sheyman voters 75% made up 25% could change
Brad Schneider voters 70% made up 30% could change
John Tree voters 47% made up 53% could change
Vivek Bavda voters 49% made up 51% could change

* This race is a lot like the 16th District Republican primary in that there’s a purity argument going on…

Which candidate do you consider more progressive: Ilya Sheyman or Brad Schneider?
Ilya Sheyman 57%
Brad Schneider 25%
They’re equally progressive 8%
Not sure 10%

Some of Brad Schneider’s opponents have criticized him for donating thousands of dollars to Republicans in Congress. Have you heard anything about Brad Schneider’s donations to Republicans?
Yes 60%
No 35%
Not sure 5%

    (Those who said ‘yes’:) Does what you’ve heard about Brad Schneider’s donations to Republicans make you more or less likely to vote for him, or does it not impact your vote?
    More likely to vote for Schneider 10%
    Less likely 54%
    Doesn’t impact your vote 36%

    (Those who said ‘no’ or ‘not sure’:) Public records show that Brad Schneider repeatedly donated to Republican candidates for Congress who want to privatize Social Security, end Medicare, and eliminate a woman’s right to choose. Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Brad Schneider, or does it not impact your vote?
    More likely to vote for Schneider 7%
    Less likely 70%
    Doesn’t impact your vote 24%

* Schneider is hitting back against the attacks from his Left flank via a TV ad

* From JTA

The commercial cites an editorial in The Chicago Tribune (which endorsed Schneider) that called some of Sheyman’s criticisms “bogus.” (A Daily Kos blogger argues that the way Schneider is using the “bogus” quote is itself bogus, since the newspaper was seemingly using the term to convey that it disagreed with Sheyman’s criticisms, not to suggest that he was lying.)

Meanwhile, Politico quotes an adviser for the Blue Dog PAC who suggests that Sheyman’s efforts to label Schneider as a conservative Blue Dog Democrat are bogus.

Schneider, who is active in Jewish communal affairs, has said that “90 percent of my donations went to Democrats and 100 percent of my donations went to support the U.S.-Israel relationship.” Indeed, it’s not uncommon for pro-Israel donors to give to members of both parties, but for a Democratic primary candidate this could prove to be a liability.

The race has been painted as a fight between left and center over the Democratic Party’s future. The 25-year-old Sheyman, who has worked for MoveOn.org and Dean’s Democracy for America, is a favorite of the left, garnering the support of former Senator Russ Feingold, various members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus from around the country and the editor of The Nation. But Schneider, whose background is in strategic management consulting and is endorsed by House Majority Whip Steny Hoyer, has been loath to cede the progressive label to Sheyman. Schneider’s commercial refers to him as the “true progressive.” (Sheyman called himself a “proven progressive” in an earlier TV spot.)

* But a Mother Jones writer quotes someone on the Left saying this race is exactly what the Democratic Party needs

“This is our top priority House race of 2012 because, like Elizabeth Warren, Ilya Sheyman is a proven progressive fighter who will be a strong ally in Congress,” PCCC spokesman Neil Sroka said in a statement. “His victory will send a signal to all Democrats across the nation that if you campaign as a bold progressive, grassroots volunteers and donors will have your back and help you achieve victory.”

Winning a primary as “a bold progressive” is one thing. Winning as a bold progressive in the 10th District come November is a whole other concept.

*** UPDATE *** From a press release…

State Representatives Karen May (D-58) and Elaine Nekritz (D-57) have released an open letter urging civility and honesty and condemning distortions made by out-of-state groups.

The letter, stressing the need for party unity to reach the common goal of Democratic victory in the November general election, follows a slew of negative campaign tactics and attacks by Ilya Sheyman and his out-of-state allies against fellow Democratic candidate Brad Schneider.

May and Nekritz also highlight the progressive values of all four primary candidates, writing, “We feel it is also important to emphasize that all the candidates — Vivek Bavda, Brad Schneider, Ilya Sheyman, and John Tree—are pro-choice, pro-environment, and pro-marriage equality. To claim otherwise is simply a distortion of the facts.”

The Schneider campaign has also called on Ilya Sheyman and his out-of-state supporters to apologize for falsely labeling progressive Democrat Brad Schneider as a conservative “Blue Dog Democrat.”

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Related…

* Primary races draw robocalls, fire fighters: Brad Schneider’s wife phoned my house Monday. Three times. I would have told her to stop, but she was insistent. A robocall, of course. They’re coming fast and furious as candidates, somehow oblivious to just how annoying these calls are, spend good money to alienate weary voters.

* 10th District candidates address partisan gridlock

* Pick Schakowsky In 9th, Tree In 10th

* Joe Walsh Is Running Out Of Cash

* Candidates at Odds Over Campaign Endorsements

* U.S. House candidates Goetten, Gill meet in broadcast debate

* Jackson’s Eye on Primary Prize

* AD: Matt Waffles

  39 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* OK, now that Rod Blagojevich is safely ensconced behind federal bars, do you have any final thoughts before we close the book on this guy?

  95 Comments      


The final ride

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 11:45 am - I don’t know if you’re interested in watching live video of Rod Blagojevich riding in a black SUV to prison, but click here if you are.

* 11:52 am - ABC7 has commentary along with the video feed. Click here. Apparently, the former governor’s car has circled around a couple of times. So, people are becoming impatient.

* 12:01 pm - ABC7 News is off, but you can watch the live feed here. [UPDATED LINK]

Years ago, we used to track Blagojevich’s plane rides from Chicago to Springfield and back. This kinda feels like that. Only not.

* 12:03 pm - He’s talking on his cell phone now. They’ve apparently stopped at a burger joint.

* 12:07 pm - Ah, heck, it’s gonna be another 45 minutes or so. Let’s go to ScribbleLive…

  25 Comments      


Freep this poll!

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Policy Polling is running a poll this weekend and has asked the public to weigh in on what state they should target. Illinois’ primary election is Tuesday, so we could use some fresh numbers.

Click here, scroll down and leave a comment supporting an Illinois poll.

PPP is also asking about additional questions. Make sure to leave any suggestions you might have when you vote for Illinois in comments.

Thanks for your help on this.

  4 Comments      


Poll: Kinzinger vs. Manzullo race now “too close to call”

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We Ask America has a poll out that shows barely a difference in the 16th Congressional District Republican Primary race. The survey, taken March 11-12 has Congressman Don Manzullo at 42.64 percent and Congressman Kinzinger at 42.25 percent. From the pollster

Early on in the campaign, Kinzinger had all the momentum. At one point not too long ago, we polled Kinzinger up by as much as 13 percent. That support, as the old expression says, may have been “a mile wide and an inch deep.” Manzullo and his campaign team have ferociously fought back to the point that the race is a dead heat. […]

Logic dictates that Manzullo has the momentum leading into Illinois’ March 20 Primary, but Kinzinger continues to surprise and impress many with his abilities, and may have a better GOTV effort overall. As in any race, estimates concerning turnout vary greatly depending on who’s handicapping the contest.

At any rate, it may be a very late night for the folks in Illinois 16.

The polling firm’s last poll had Kinzinger up 47-34, so this is not good news for the Kinzinger camp.

* Meanwhile, Slate’s David Weigel looks at one of the ads Manzullo is running which claim Kinzinger isn’t conservative enough

The attack that leaps out at you: Kinzinger was “one of seven Republicans who voted to PAY FOR OBAMA’S APPOINTMENTS!” What does that mean? Just that Kinzinger opposed a summer 2011 amendment that would have denied a salary to anyone recess-appointed by Barack Obama. Really. That’s it. That’s the proof that he’s not conservative enough to represent a mostly-Republican district. It’ll be fascinating to see if this works.

* But a new political action committee that I’ve been telling subscribers about for a while now has jumped into this race on Kinzinger’s side. The Illinois Lunch Pail Republicans, created to back union-friendly Republicans, is reportedly doing a $100,000 independent expenditure on behalf of Kinzinger. Here’s the TV ad

Support by that group could become an issue.

* Related…

* ‘The one that made my wife weep’: The two Illinois GOP incumbents heading for a showdown Tuesday traded barbs in a contentious primary debate Tuesday night, where Don Manzullo accused Adam Kinzinger of producing a mail piece “that made my wife weep.”

* Manzullo, Kinzinger get testy over ads and conservative ratings, disagree on Afghanistan

* Congressmen clash over conservative title

* Illinois primary pits leaders vs. Tea Party

* Kinzinger ‘concerned’ but members think he’ll win: The belief on the Hill among Republican staffers and members tracking the 16th District contest is that while Manzullo has mounted a surprisingly sharp advertising blitz, Kinzinger’s response has been flat. Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s endorsement of Kinzinger Thursday was partly reflective of that sentiment.

* Press Release: Gun Owners of America Endorses Rep. Manzullo Over Rep. Kinzinger

* American Conservative Union backs Manzullo over Kinzinger

* Bill Brady endorses Manzullo

  16 Comments      


Caption contest!

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Winner gets a free ticket to my March 28th Springfield birthday party charity benefit…

[Hat tip: IR]

  203 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup

Thursday, Mar 15, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Thursday, Mar 15, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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