* We Ask America has a poll out that shows barely a difference in the 16th Congressional District Republican Primary race. The survey, taken March 11-12 has Congressman Don Manzullo at 42.64 percent and Congressman Kinzinger at 42.25 percent. From the pollster…
Early on in the campaign, Kinzinger had all the momentum. At one point not too long ago, we polled Kinzinger up by as much as 13 percent. That support, as the old expression says, may have been “a mile wide and an inch deep.” Manzullo and his campaign team have ferociously fought back to the point that the race is a dead heat. […]
Logic dictates that Manzullo has the momentum leading into Illinois’ March 20 Primary, but Kinzinger continues to surprise and impress many with his abilities, and may have a better GOTV effort overall. As in any race, estimates concerning turnout vary greatly depending on who’s handicapping the contest.
At any rate, it may be a very late night for the folks in Illinois 16.
The polling firm’s last poll had Kinzinger up 47-34, so this is not good news for the Kinzinger camp.
The attack that leaps out at you: Kinzinger was “one of seven Republicans who voted to PAY FOR OBAMA’S APPOINTMENTS!” What does that mean? Just that Kinzinger opposed a summer 2011 amendment that would have denied a salary to anyone recess-appointed by Barack Obama. Really. That’s it. That’s the proof that he’s not conservative enough to represent a mostly-Republican district. It’ll be fascinating to see if this works.
* But a new political action committee that I’ve been telling subscribers about for a while now has jumped into this race on Kinzinger’s side. The Illinois Lunch Pail Republicans, created to back union-friendly Republicans, is reportedly doing a $100,000 independent expenditure on behalf of Kinzinger. Here’s the TV ad…
Support by that group could become an issue.
* ‘The one that made my wife weep’: The two Illinois GOP incumbents heading for a showdown Tuesday traded barbs in a contentious primary debate Tuesday night, where Don Manzullo accused Adam Kinzinger of producing a mail piece “that made my wife weep.”
* Kinzinger ‘concerned’ but members think he’ll win: The belief on the Hill among Republican staffers and members tracking the 16th District contest is that while Manzullo has mounted a surprisingly sharp advertising blitz, Kinzinger’s response has been flat. Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s endorsement of Kinzinger Thursday was partly reflective of that sentiment.
* Press Release: Gun Owners of America Endorses Rep. Manzullo Over Rep. Kinzinger
I’m chiefly curious about who the 16th primary voters are supporting for Prez. How did Dillard and Brady do in the newly reconstituted 16th? That’s probably the best tell. I expect low turnout on the 20th so anywhere there’s a competitive primary is likely to see a relative bump in participation.
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:03 am:
The ILPR brings up some interesting questions. Operators 150 wants to support Kinzinger, but they do not want to do it directly? They organized in late Feb with $50k from the Operators, who will put in the other $50k? Also, the ILPR is a state PAC, how much spending on federal races would make them a federal PAC? And, does the NRA like Adam as well?
- Marcus Agrippa - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:29 am:
I wish Manzullo could play up the fact that the nasty mailers are coming from a bunch of rich Texans and that Eric Cantor has stuck his nose in it to boost his shot at Speaker. We’ve got enough problems without a bunch of outsiders telling us what to do.
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:53 am:
==They have a federal PAC too.==
Thanks. I wondered about that. I went to the FEC page, but couldn’t find the PAC.
Heard this morning that Cantor is doubling down and dropping $50K on Kinzinger on the eve of the primary. Evidence that at this late date they must think Kinzinger is losing.
I spent some time in the guard myself. I wonder why Kinzinger constantly volunteers to leave his unit, the people he trains with, and do these short tours. Doesn’t this leave his unit in a lurch when the unit gets called up? The whole point of the national guard and reserve is that people know each other and have trained together for years. How many of these short tours has he done? Are his fellow unit members that glad to see him go?
The recess appointments kinzinger voted to fund were actually not recess appointments they were illegal appointments made to the NLRB when Obama claimed congress was he recess. He was one of a small number of Republicans that voted to fund them. All his conservative colleagues voted against such funding.