Preckwinkle was defending the recent move by city officials to decriminalize possession of small amounts of marijuana, saying out of whack drug laws unfairly lead to more minorities behind bars.
Republican state Rep. Chapin Rose questioned whether such an approach includes drug treatment for those who are ticketed. Preckwinkle said no, arguing that drug treatment should be part of health care system, not criminal justice. She said Reagan deserves a “special place in hell” for his involvement in “making drug use political.”
“What? You didn’t like that?” Preckwinkle said after members of the audience gasped.
Um, she was speaking Downstate and this is Reagan’s home state. Not a good thing.
And it was Nixon who was really responsible for the War on Drugs. Reagan just amped it up, which, at the time, was a pretty popular thing to do. I opposed it, but I was in a very small minority back then. It’s a horribly failed program, but saying a former president deserves a “special place in hell” for his part in it is way over the line.
If she wants to run statewide (subscribe to find out more), then Preckwinkle will have to learn how to speak to groups which aren’t always full of hardcore Chicago Democrats. Champaign-Urbana is a pretty liberal place, but it isn’t the 4th Ward.
* In his latest online video, Democratic congressional candidate David Gill tries to use an alleged GOP money laundering scheme allegedly involving his Republican opponent. I’m not sure it works all that well…
I just don’t see how that video works on any level.
* From a Gill press release…
The Gill campaign released a letter sent from Dr. Gill to State Republican Chairman Pat Brady requesting that Brady disgorge funds channeled to the party in a scheme cooked up by 19-year political insider and George Ryan protege Rodney Davis to evade campaign fundraising laws implemented following the Ryan and Blagojevich scandals.
In his letter to Brady, Gill says, “As you know, billionaires Ken and Anne Griffin funneled more than $200,000 to local Illinois Republican groups and several of those organizations soon thereafter channeled approximately $140,000 of that money back to the Illinois Republican Party via purchases of tickets to an event with Karl Rove, among other routes. Rodney Davis freely admits that, as Acting Executive Director of the Illinois Republican Party, he helped the Griffins find local Republican entities to receive the Griffin’s largess. Many of the targeted local Republican entities had rarely, if ever, received such large donations. Yet, instead of holding onto the surprising windfall to assist their programs and efforts, these local entities almost immediately funneled the money back into state Republican party coffers.”
Gill further asks Brady to work with him “to ensure that the corruption that was rampant in Illinois politics during the George Ryan and Rod Blagojevich-eras will one day become a distant memory.”
Thus far, Davis has refused to answer questions about the dubious financial transactions he orchestrated — donations that enriched the Illinois Republican party shortly before party officials hand-picked Davis to replace Rep. Tim Johnson on the November ballot.
Gill Campaign manager Michael Richards noted, “Rodney Davis is a lifetime political campaign operative who’s been paid by taxpayers like us for 19 years. He serves his politician bosses, not the public who pays him.”
This was actually a serious issue that ought to be looked at by somebody in power. So far, nothing.
* By the way, the Democratic tracker assigned to monitor Davis showed up at a Champaign County Republican Party Central Committee meeting last night. She was recognized from the video I posted online and was asked to leave.
* Will Caskey compares the Illinois Democrats’ 2010 Scott Lee Cohen debacle to the current national uproar over Missouri Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin, a US congressman who recently said that women who are raped rarely get pregnant: “First of all, from what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down”…
The general consensus was that Cohen had to drop out for the high crime of winning a primary no one previously cared about or paid attention to. Now of course this isn’t exactly the same situation as that facing Missouri Republicans regarding Rep./U.S. Senate nominee Todd Akin- after all, U.S. Senators generally accomplish much less than any random Lieutenant Governor. Nevertheless we can take some general lessons from the Cohen incident to advise my Republican colleagues to the south: […]
Cohen won the primary on February 5, 2010. He dropped out the following week. In between he endured an astonishing lashing from every conceivable constituency in the Democratic party (with the occasional exception of politicians he had given $10,000 contributions). The thing is that brain damaged crazy people such as Cohen and Aiken don’t properly understand how not-fun even normal, competitive campaigns are. These sorts of spotlights provide a harsh object lesson. Yes, they usually have an inner circle of yeasayers- Cohen had his willing consultant, Aiken had his familymembers running his campaign (and seriously, NRSC: great job letting that happen). But continuing to campaign means continuing to talk to people who aren’t in your inner circle, and it gets really tedious after a while when every single one of these people hates you.
It can actually sort itself out. Yes, Cohen wreaked a considerable amount of havoc during his brief time as Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor of Illinois. When he dropped out he did so from a bar, drunkenly sobbing, during the Superbowl half time show (I’m not making this up). And Gov. Pat Quinn was in a considerable amount of trouble, particularly when Cohen decided to run for Governor as an independent in a bizarre spite campaign. But he did drop out, and the press moved on to other things (like yelling at Quinn). And in the end, Quinn didn’t win pretty and he didn’t win a majority, but he held on to the governor’s mansion in a year when Democrats got massacred and even Illinois ejected four of its Democratic House members.
So cheer up, Missouri GOP. Yes, your nominee in a state you absolutely must win accidentally broadcast that you all think somewhat more highly of fetuses than rape victims, and yes he’s apparently determined to ride his nomination through 5pm today. But McCaskill was trailing him on Saturday, and you might yet pry her out of her seat.
Tuesday, Aug 21, 2012 - Posted by Advertising Department
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Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady is calling for a Federal investigation of the acceptance of nearly a quarter of a million dollars in labor union money by Illinois House Speaker/Illinois Democratic Party Chairman/Father of the Illinois Attorney General Mike Madigan and Illinois Senate President John Cullerton just before a Special Session of the Illinois General Assembly called primarily to address the state’s pension crisis.
Illinois State Board of Elections records show that on Aug. 17 – the same day as the Special Session – Service Employee International Unions (SEIU) gave $47,000 and another $50,000 to the Democratic Majority (a committee chaired by Madigan to elect Democratic State House members); on Aug. 13 it contributed $50,000 to Cullerton; on Aug. 10, $45,000 to the Senate Democratic Victory Fund, and on Aug. 6, $50,000 to the Democratic Party of Illinois (chaired by Madigan).
“Mike Madigan might as well hang a ‘For Sale’ sign from the Dome of the State Capitol,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady. “This clearly does not pass the smell test and it merits investigation by federal authorities.”
* I asked SEIU for a response. Here it is…
The allegations levied today by the GOP are baseless election year rhetoric.
The facts are that the SEIU contributions coincide with our July 23rd endorsement session.
The contributions reported are in line with our political donations over the past decade.
These contributions have no relationship to the special session called by Governor Quinn. Fewer than 10 percent of our 170,000 members statewide have pensions administered by the State of Illinois.
* OK, so let’s look back two years to see how the giving went. Cullerton got his SEIU money around this very same time in 2010…
* Madigan’s Democratic Majority fund didn’t exist two years ago, but here are his other two funds…
Those contributions to Madigan came a bit later in the cycle, perhaps because public employee unions in general were quite upset at Madigan two years ago. AFSCME and others boycotted giving to his fund altogether. Whatever the case, since the endorsement session was in July, the union makes a pretty good argument that there was no direct quid pro quo here.
* Is this really worthy of a federal probe? House Republican Leader Tom Cross thinks something smells bad. From WJOL radio…
It was this past Friday that state legislators accomplished ABSOLUTELY NOTHING during a special session called by Governor Quinn to deal with the “pension reform issue.”
But House Minority Leader Tom Cross announced Monday morning on 1340 WJOL that it was discovered over the weekend that INTERESTING POLITICAL DONATIONS WERE MADE…..on THURSDAY….the day before the special session. With the “48 hour rule” concerning how quickly political donations need to be reported, it was on SATURDAY that Cross and others noticed that 100 thousand dollar contributions were given last week to House Speaker Mike Madigan, and Democrat Senate President John Cullerton. Cross says these contributions were made by the SERVICE INDUSTRY EMPLOYEES UNION, one of pension reform’s BIGGEST OPPONENTS. Cross says that EVEN IN ILLINOIS, with its corrupt reputation, this should have looked AWFULLY BAD.
When no progress was made on pension reform Friday, Cross says he simply thought….WELL….Madigan once again GETS WHAT HE WANTS…..or in this case DOESN’T GET what he DOESN’T WANT.
The House Democrats dismissed the allegations as pure politics.
Her union represents 2,450 employees in Secretary of State Jesse White’s office and 525 toll collectors and other workers employed by the Illinois State Toll Highway Authority, all of whom had pensions that would be affected by the outcome of Friday’s special session.
A union spokesman late Monday insisted that the contributions actually were given to Madigan’s fund several weeks ago but that the campaign committee merely got around to reporting them to the State Board of Elections last Friday.
…Adding… From the Senate Democrats…
This is just political theater from the Republicans.
* I wanted to take a closer look at one of the IEA’s poll results…
Now I am going to read you possible ways to close the deficit in the pension systems in Illinois and I would like you to rate each one using a scale from 0 to 10. A 0 on this scale means you think that proposal is a VERY BAD idea. A 10 on this scale means you think that proposal is a VERY GOOD idea.
Click the pic for a better look at the responses…
* What I’ve done below is combined the 0-3 and 7-10 responses to give us a better idea of where the opposition and support is…
* Laying off teachers and college faculty - 59% (Bad) 13% (Good)
* Raising property taxes - 72% (Bad) 11% (Good)
* Allowing new casinos to be built in Illinois - 32% (Bad) 41% (Good)
* Raising the income tax rate in Illinois for people making more than $100,000 a year - 29% (Bad) 45% (Good)
* Forcing Illinois to put the money into the pension fund - 14% (Bad) 59% (Good)
* Cutting benefits to current retirees - 70% (Bad) 10% (Good)
* Cutting pension benefits for teachers who have not retired yet - 49% (Bad) 24% (Good)
The public clearly does not want anything bad to happen to anybody except corporations which take advantage of tax loopholes. I’m not sure they really understand the consequences of what “Forcing Illinois to put the money into the pension fund” would do. And, notice, that even though a strong plurality supports raising the tax rate on people making over $100K a year, it’s not a majority by any means. And property tax hikes? Forget it, man.
There was no question about raising income taxes again on everyone. I doubt it would be all that popular.
* And people wonder why it’s so difficult to pass a pension reform bill. It’s not just the General Assembly which doesn’t want to make tough, grinding choices. The people don’t want to do it, either.
I think the General Assembly and the governor need to find another way to do this. It’s probably time that they take a good, long look at Rep. Mike Fortner’s pension proposal. If Fortner’s numbers work, it appears to be a whole lot more doable politically than anything else out there, and it’s a whole lot more humane that what’s on the table right now.
* From a press release by Illinois Education Association President Cinda Klickna…
A new scientific statewide poll shows that, despite years of hostile editorials, a well-funded public relations campaign and the non-stop efforts of anti-union “think tanks” to turn the public against education employees, more than two-thirds of Illinois voters (68%) believe that teachers should receive their pensions as they were promised, even when pressed about the state’s budget problems.
The percentage siding with teachers receiving their full pensions increases (71%) when voters learn that teachers are ineligible for Social Security and rises higher still (75%) when they hear that Springfield politicians failed to put money into the pension systems and spent it on their own priorities instead.
These data show the public understands that education employees are being reasonable when they argue that public employees should not be made to bear sole responsibility for fixing the pension mess.
A majority (58%) of voters believe the legislature is most to blame for the current pension deficit with only 5% laying blame at the feet of teachers.
When it comes to solutions, a majority (58%) considers cutting benefits to current retirees a very bad idea. Most think closing tax loopholes for corporations (54%) is a better solution.
* From the poll…
Which point of view do you agree with more: [RANDOMIZE]
IEA, the teachers’ union, helps the public schools by advocating for better education policies and helping teachers and staff.
IEA, the teachers’ union, hurts the public schools by protecting the jobs of bad teachers.
(WAIT FOR RESPONSE) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
TOTAL HELPS ………………………………………….. 51%
TOTAT HURTS …………………………………………. 40%
* On to pensions…
As you may know, over the long run, there is an $83B deficit in Illinois for the pension systems. Who do you think is mostly to blame for most of the current pension systems deficit [RANDOMIZE] Governor Quinn, the Illinois legislature or the teachers and college faculty?
QUINN …………………………………………………….. 12%
LEGISLATURE …………………………………………. 58
TEACHERS AND COLLEGE FACULTY ………… 5
(ALL THREE) ……………………………………………. 13
(NONE OF THESE) …………………………………….. 5
(DON’T KNOW) …………………………………………… 7
* The public appears to support the teachers in this pension fight…
As we mentioned before, Illinois currently has a pension debt of $83B in unfunded pension liabilities for teachers and college faculty. Which statement comes closer to your point of view [RANDOMIZE]
Teachers and college faculty contributed to their pension from every paycheck, and should receive the pensions they were promised, despite these deficits.
Given the state’s budget problems, we just cannot afford to pay the full pensions of teachers and college faculty.
(IF CHOICE:) And do you strongly or somewhat agree with that statement?
TOTAL RECEIVE PENSION ………………………. 68%
TOTAL CAN’T AFFORD …………………………….. 24%
And which of these statements comes closer to your point of view [RANDOMIZE]
Teachers and college faculty have done their part, never missing a payment of their share into the pension system. Plus, Illinois teachers do not get Social Security. They should receive the pensions they were promised, despite these deficits.
Given the state’s budget problems, we just cannot afford to pay the full pensions of teachers and college faculty.
(IF CHOICE:) And do you strongly or somewhat agree with that statement?
TOTAL RECEIVE PENSION ………………………. 71%
TOTAL CAN’T AFFORD …………………………….. 21%
One last time. Which of these statements comes closer to your point of view [RANDOMIZE]
It is the politicians in Springfield who failed to meet their obligation by taking the money that should have gone to the pensions systems and spending it on their own pet projects. Teachers and college faculty should not be penalized and should receive the pensions they were promised.
Given the state’s budget problems, we just cannot afford to pay the full pensions of teachers and college faculty.
(IF CHOICE:) And do you strongly or somewhat agree with that statement?
TOTAL RECEIVE PENSION ………………………. 75%
TOTAL CAN’T AFFORD …………………………….. 18%
* The public is initially opposed to the cost shift idea, but opponents come around when it’s phased in…
One other proposal that people have mentioned is to make local school districts, rather than the state, responsible for teacher pension plans, which are currently paid for by the state. [RANDOMIZE]
SUPPORTERS of this idea say that it would help the state address its pension crisis, and that local school districts should be responsible for teacher pensions since they negotiate the teacher contracts in the first place.
OPPONENTS of this idea say that the state has been responsible for teacher pensions for decades, and shifting that burden to local school districts would be an unfunded mandate that would result in much higher local property taxes or cuts to education at the local level.
After hearing both sides of the issue, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose making local school districts, rather the state, responsible for teacher pension plans?
TOTAL FAVOR …………………………………………. 32%
TOTAL OPPOSE ………………………………………. 59%
[IF OPPOSE Q18=3-4]
And what if the change to make local school districts, rather than the state, responsible for teacher pension plans was phased in over ten years so that each year local school districts took more responsibility? Thinking again, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose making local school districts, rather the state, responsible for teacher pension plans?
TOTAL FAVOR …………………………………………. 45%
TOTAL OPPOSE ………………………………………. 45%
* But the cost shift would still cost legislators votes…
Now I want to ask you abut your vote for state legislature. If a candidate for the Illinois legislature voted to change the pension system for teachers and college faculty so that the costs were shifted to local school districts would you be MORE or LESS likely to vote for that candidate? [IF MORE/LESS] And would you be much [MORE/LESS] or somewhat [MORE/LESS] likely to vote for that candidate?
MUCH MORE …………………………………………… 11%
SOMEWHAT MORE ………………………………….. 20
SOMEWHAT LESS ……………………………………. 20
MUCH LESS …………………………………………….. 31
(DON’T KNOW) ………………………………………… 18
TOTAL MORE …………………………………………… 31%
TOTAL LESS ……………………………………………. 51%
* Methodology…
(T)elephone survey conducted among 600 frequent voters in Illinois. Interviews were conducted August 6-13, 2012. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
Gov. Pat Quinn and Mayor Rahm Emanuel will address the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., next month.
Emanuel is scheduled to speak Sept. 4, the first night of the three-day convention, a Democratic source said. Democratic officials did not say what day or time the governor and mayor will speak. Emanuel spokeswoman Sarah Hamilton declined to comment. As President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, Emanuel is well-versed in the early successes and failures of the administration. […]
Quinn’s name was not listed among the latest wave of speakers, but he’s got a speaking role, according to campaign staff.
* The Question: What do you think will be the theme of Gov. Pat Quinn’s convention speech?
* I went to the Illinois State Fair eight different this year. I think that’s a personal record. The weather was darned near perfect, but I thought the Fair was better than in years past and attendance jumped despite a price increase…
(T)his year’s attendance for the 10-day fair was 844,051, according to fair officials. That’s nearly 15 percent higher than last year’s 10-day total of 735,599.
Grandstand concert attendance also was up this year, with 51,732 seeing the nine ticketed events, compared to 49,649 people last year.
After hiding out from the heat for most of the summer, people seemed to relish the chance to get outside and enjoy the food, games, rides and other attractions at the fairgrounds, Bliefnick said.
Ticket prices jumped to $7 for adults this year from $5 last year, but that didn’t appear to hurt attendance.
Reported attendance at the Illinois State Fair was approximately 650,000 in 2003, 671,333 in 2004, 672,615 in 2005, approximately 705,000 in 2006, and 737,052 in 2008.
* Just two shows, Eric Church and Miranda Lambert, accounted for about 44 percent of the Grandstand attendance.
More like this, please.
* Meanwhile, a couple of buddies and I had another adventure with a borrowed golf cart this year. I posted one two years ago, but we made an unreleased video last year as well. I never posted it because somebody stole the cart and I figured I was in enough trouble already without adding to my woes.
Thursday’s rain got things a little muddy, so we went over to the steep hills surrounding Happy Hollow for some fun. Enjoy…
Yes, we were bad. No, you shouldn’t do this. Yes, I’m probably in trouble… again.
* Online campaign videos are different from TV ads, so keep that in mind when rating this online video from Democratic state Sen. Gary Forby’s Republican opponent Mark Minor. From the campaign…
This is going to folks who work at the Department of Corrections and supporters
* I arrived a bit too late to see her, but a Democratic “tracker” showed up at a Republican State Fair event on Wednesday. That’s not so unusual. Video trackers go pretty much everywhere these days.
What is somewhat unusual about the tracker’s presence was that the event was held in a tavern. People were drinking. I really don’t like this idea. There ought to be things that are off limits to video trackers, and taverns are one of them, unless maybe a candidate has a DUI or something.
This particular tracker apparently follows Republican congressional candidate Rodney Davis. “She’s everywhere,” said one Davis friend. And she was at DH Brown’s on Wednesday for a state party function. It was a private affair, so she was given the boot. Figuratively, of course.
* But then this same Democratic tracker reappeared Thursday evening - at a function for two Democrats. The Democrats, Rep. Elgie Sims and state House candidate Lance Tyson, were holding a joint fundraiser at an office on West Capitol Ave.
I try to attend as many State Fair political events as I can, and I showed up for that one. The tracker was on the sidewalk across the street from the building. She had been in the building’s private parking lot before she was shooed away.
* As you can see by the video, the tracker originally identified herself as working for “Coulson Research,” then said she worked for “Olson Research.” Neither of those firms show up in a Google search, nor in the candidate disbursements.
The DCCC confirmed later that she was a Democratic tracker, but denied that she works for them. The DCCC person I communicated with did not respond to my questions about why this person would be sent to a Democratic event. The Democrats involved weren’t exactly pleased, to say the least.
* The bottom line is I still don’t know why this Democratic tracker showed up at a Democratic event. I’m posting this in case somebody can help me out here. Thanks.
In politics, perception often trumps reality. Put another way: What people think they know about a politician, an issue or anything else goes a long way to determining how they feel about it — whether or not their initial perception is based in reality or not.
That perception obsession has lead us to seek out any and every tool that helps us get at how people think about their politics — and each other.
Today we happened upon an awesome map put together by Renee DiResta at her No Upside blog. What DiResta did is simple but revealing. In Google she typed in “Why is [fill in the blank state] so…” and let Google’s autocomplete function, which tracks the most common words typed after “so”, do the rest. She mapped the top four auto-completes for each state. […]
* One of the top four autocomplete terms for Alabama, Missisippi, Georgia and South Carolina is “racist”. It’s the most common autocomplete in Alabama and South Carolina and number two in Mississippi and Georgia.
* In California, Oregon and Washington State, one of the top four terms is “why is [state] so liberal?” That’s also true in Maine, Vermont and Massachusetts.
* The four top Google auto-completes for “Why is Illinois so…” are…
The data set is Google auto-complete results for “Why is [insert state] so “. I took up to four results per state - one or two states didn’t even have four results - then grouped the results by term. I categorized the terms into buckets: economic, geographic, health, history, political, population, sports, weather, and “culture/sentiment”. The latter was a bit of a catch-all for ‘judgey terms’, ranging from “awesome” to “boring” to “racist.” Sometimes the classification wasn’t immediately obvious; for example, “Why is Alabama so good?” is pretty vague, so I followed the query through to the results, and determined it was most likely sports-related. (“Why is New Jersey so bad?”, however, was not about sports.) Your search results may vary (due to past search history, region, autocomplete results changing due to news events, and other factors). I did run these in both Incognito mode and regular mode, and the vast majority of results were identical. If you’d like the raw data, contact me.
* The Question: What one word immediately comes to your own mind when asked “Why is Illinois so…”?
* Gov. Pat Quinn issued this statement Friday afternoon after the House advanced an amendment which would reform only the General Assembly’s pension system…
“I met with the legislative leaders this morning, and we discussed a number of pension proposals that could be voted on today. I asked them to vote on a proposal that reforms four of the systems and eliminates the unfunded liability, as I have repeatedly advocated.
“Republican leaders said no.
“I asked them if they would vote on a proposal that reforms three of the state’s systems. Republican leaders said no.
“I asked them to vote on SB1447, passed by the Senate, to reform two of the systems.
“Republican leaders said no.
“I asked them if they would lead by example, at the very least, and vote to reform the General Assembly pension system.
The only problem was that Biss was arguing in favor of Friday’s legislative pension charade and admonishing Republicans not to seek partisan advantage, which put him in the same boat as the rest.
After a do-nothing special legislative session Friday, Illinois remains rock bottom in pension stability. The House couldn’t even pass a sliver of reform: a bill that would affect pensions for lawmakers, a tiny fraction of the state pension system’s enrollees. The governor’s office estimates that narrow measure would save the state $43 million to $45 million right away and about $111 million by 2045. In context, not much — but too much for Illinois lawmakers to save. Thank you, members of the House, for not even tossing a thimble of water on your roaring bonfire.
The Senate adjourned before taking up the legislation at all. Without any bill on Quinn’s desk, the state realizes no immediate savings. So we are exactly where we were 11 weeks ago when the General Assembly went on summer vacation without doing anything to mitigate that “staggering” pension debt. Eleven weeks from now is the reason why: Election Day.
We could fill this page with who’s to blame. We could call them out by name.
But to keep it simple — to make it crystal clear — we’ll point the arrow here: It’s the incumbents, voters.
That was one of the more interesting editorials on this issue I read because it didn’t follow the accepted journalistic line that this vote was a complete and utter sham.
* The conservative Daily Caller is practically giddy today…
President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.
A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.
Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.
Those numbers do not bode well for the president. […]
In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.
Illinois is not considered a swing state by any means; it is seen as solidly blue, and has been for the past two election cycles. But McKeon pointed to the 2010 gubernatorial race when Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties. That is a feat Romney could repeat this year, leaving Obama vulnerable if he cannot expand his lead in Cook County.
* But Lynn Sweet has some recent county-wide poll numbers from Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle’s campaign which shows that President Obama has high favorables and high job approval ratings in Cook…
72/27 Obama
69/26 Emanuel
67/15 Preckwinkle
54/43 Quinn
*Madigan not included [Emphasis added.]
I wouldn’t bet the farm that Romney has a shot in Illinois. He’ll do much better in the suburbs and Downstate than John McCain four years ago. But a shot at winning Illinois? Not yet.
Also, notice Gov. Quinn’s ratings. Not good at all. The person who probably should be worried is Gov. Pat Quinn, not President Obama.
A new poll of likely voters in the 17th Congressional District puts U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling ahead of his Democratic opponent, Cheri Bustos, by 13 points.
The internal poll by the Schilling campaign surveyed 400 people between Aug. 8 and 9 and found that 50 percent would vote for Rep. Schilling, R-Colona, and 37 percent would back Ms. Bustos, of East Moline.
Ms. Bustos has increased her support by 2 points from the last poll of the district conducted by the Schilling campaign in May. Rep. Schilling had the support of 51 percent of those polled in May to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos.
Terry Schilling, Rep. Schilling’s campaign manager, released the new poll on Friday and said he was pleased with the numbers. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Prompted by the release of the Schilling poll, the Bustos campaign released its own numbers from an internal poll taken in February. The poll found support of 44 percent for Rep. Schilling to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos. But when the 400 likely voters surveyed where given positive information about both candidates, Rep. Schilling’s lead narrowed to just four points. [See below for more info. The Bustos poll showed she actually led by four points after the positive pushes.]
1. Bobby Schilling continues to have a solid image in the district. Incumbent Bobby Schilling’s name ID is 84% and he has positive image ration of more than two to one (42% fav/20% unfav). These numbers are especially strong given how much of the district is new territory for Schilling.
2. Democrat challenger Cheri Bustos’ name ID is under 50%, and her image is polarized among those with an opinion of her. Cheri Bustos’s name ID sits at 49%, and just 29% of voters have an opinion of her (16% fav/13% unfav). Bustos’ image is essentially unchanged since our May survey, and she is running out of time to adequately define herself.
3. Bobby Schilling continues to lead by double digits on the Congressional ballot. Schilling leads Bustos by thirteen points on the ballot (50% Schilling/37% Bustos). Schilling’s support from Republicans is north of 90%, and he also has a significant advantage with Independent voters (50% Schilling/22% Bustos).
Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey of 400 likely voters in Illinois’ newly drawn 17Congressional District August 8-9, 2012. The survey has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.
* The Schilling campaign also provided this polling roundup…
Schilling 44, Bustos 35 (February 2012) — The Bustos campaign released this internal poll—conducted in February—during the weekend of August 18 in response to the latest Public Opinion Strategies poll released by the Schilling campaign. Bustos was nominated in early March.
Schilling 51, Bustos 35 (May 2012) — In May, the Schilling campaign released this poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. This was the first publicly released poll of the cycle.
Schilling 50, Bustos 37 (August 2012) — The Rock Island Argus and Moline Dispatch reported this new poll result on Sunday. Public Opinion Strategies also conducted this poll.
…Adding… The Bustos campaign notes that their polling memo from May showed this…
After hearing positive information on both candidates (slightly more on Bustos than Schilling), the Congressman’s lead evaporates and Bustos opens up a 45 – 41 percent lead. In other words, Bustos gains the lead before voters even hear about Schilling’s vulnerabilities.
* Doug Finke asks some good questions about AFSCME…
They can boo and shout down all the Democrats they want, but where do they go politically? To the Republicans? The GOP argued for pension reforms long before the Democrats climbed on board and for harsher ones than are being debated now. They also tend to think government should be shrunk, not expanded.
The unions can sit out the elections, which means they’ll be decided by voters who pay taxes, but don’t collect state pensions. Many of those voters might think Quinn has the right idea.
Not much of a choice, is it?
* My syndicated column is about the union’s anger…
If you were following the news last week, you already know that hundreds of AFSCME members packed the Illinois State Fair Director’s Lawn last Wednesday afternoon and booed pretty much everybody who tried to speak at the annual Democratic event.
The only person of consequence to escape most of the hostility was Secretary of State Jesse White (who is also exempted from the traditional fan booing of politicians at Chicago baseball games). But even White received a few boos at times.
“It is a great day to be a Democrat in Springfield, Illinois!” shouted Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon, the event’s emcee, over loud catcalls. “And I am happy to be here with all of you, no matter what your point of view is,” she continued, hoping to calm the angry crowd, which was far more AFSCME than Democratic.
It didn’t work.
The shouts were so loud during Gov. Pat Quinn’s brief address that nobody could listen to the speech except reporters with direct electronic access to his microphone. The governor showed some real guts by directly challenging the assembled protesters during his remarks, but it didn’t really matter because the workers (and everybody else) couldn’t hear a word of what he said.
Even President Barack Obama was heartily booed by union protesters both times his name was invoked from the stage, suggesting to some Democrats last week that many of the union protesters were actually hardcore Republicans with a political ax to grind. The fact that no AFSCME protests were planned for the following day’s Republican Day event at the State Fair was pointed to by more than one upset Democrat last week.
But there’s no doubt that the union intimidation did have an impact. Secretary White nervously joked with protesters not to “kill the messenger” when he was briefly booed. White made sure to emphatically promise the crowd that his planned closure of a Rockford facility would be addressed soon.
The fact that fewer top Democrats were willing to appear on the dais with Quinn than ever stood with former Gov. Rod Blagojevich at previous fair events also showed the power of the issue to frighten away the governor’s fellow party members. Just one congressional candidate with a serious race, Democrat David Gill, showed up. Gill was lightly booed at times, but the experience as the event’s first speaker appeared to shake him up a bit. He looked upset after his speech and nervously wiped his brow before sitting down.
Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan laughed heartily and smiled wide when his own introduction was loudly booed. Madigan chose not to speak, however. Senate President John Cullerton and Attorney General Lisa Madigan did not appear on the podium.
Blagojevich gave AFSCME some of the best union contracts in the nation. But even he was subjected to an AFSCME State Fair protest when he attempted to make union members pay more for health insurance in 2008. Workers only briefly interrupted Blagojevich’s speech before marching out of the event. Quinn didn’t get so lucky.
A much stronger message had to be sent last week. Quinn is not only attempting to reduce union worker pensions and health benefits, but word from inside the contract negotiations is he’s demanding that every union member take a two-grade reduction in their pay, which would amount to at least a 10 percent pay cut for employees. He’s also demanding a ton of other concessions and closing several state institutions. Union members are fed up with the demands for givebacks from a guy they backed to the hilt last election.
Bill Brady slightly underperformed Mark Kirk in just about every downstate county in 2010, almost totally because of union opposition to Brady’s anti-labor beliefs. Those slim Downstate margins (along with the pro-choice northern suburban backlash against Brady) elected Pat Quinn governor two years ago. There are a ton of Downstate public employee union members. So, he took their votes and he took their money and now they believe that he’s totally turned against them. Rank and file union anger is completely understandable in this context.
It’s little wonder that legislative Democrats didn’t want to advance a major pension reform proposal two days after the State Fair debacle. AFSCME’s tactics may have been over the top, but the union appeared to succeed, at least for now.
We’ll have much more on the pension issue in a bit.
