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Thursday, Oct 4, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This is the first negative ad by Tammy Duckworth. Rate it…

*** UPDATED - CELLINI SENTENCED TO YEAR AND A DAY *** Question of the day

Thursday, Oct 4, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

The final case to stem from the corruption investigation into imprisoned former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich comes to a close Thursday, when a multimillionaire who once wielded enormous political influence in the state is expected to face a judge for sentencing.

William Cellini, 77, was convicted last year for his role in trying to get a $1.5 million campaign contribution for Blagojevich from the Oscar-winning producer of “Million Dollar Baby” in exchange for state business. The Springfield businessman was once known to political insiders as the King of Clout for his behind-the-scenes influence in state government.

Federal prosecutors want a 6 1/2- to eight-year prison sentence, while defense attorneys have asked for probation.

* The Question: Do you lean more toward the prosecution sentencing request or the defense request? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.

Online Surveys & Market Research

*** UPDATE *** Here’s a ScribbleLive thingy for Cellini’s sentencing…

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: Early afternoon updates

Thursday, Oct 4, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Attack ad retooled

Thursday, Oct 4, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* After initially denying there were any problems with a TV ad attacking Democrat Tammy Duckworth, a Super PAC has decided to pull the ad back and retool it a bit…

Tyler Harber, a spokesman for Now or Never PAC, confirmed that changes are being made to a commercial set to run on Chicago cable and broadcast stations criticizing Duckworth’s tenure as director of the Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs. He described those changes, however, as minor. […]

“We made no substantive or topical changes to the ad,” Harber said in an email. “The ad conveys the same message as before. We were not asked to take out any of the arguments we made in the ad. It is not unusual to make minor adjustments to ads. People who see the first version and the second version will notice virtually no difference whatsoever.” […]

Duckworth’s campaign first became aware of the ad after it received a “tip” from a source at WLS-TV, spokeswoman Kaitlin Fahey said, that the ad did not pass muster from the station’s legal department. Stations often ask for additional documentation when they vet political ads, The campaign then began contacting other area TV stations. Sources at WBBM said the ad was on “hold” until they were told it was being recut.

Other stations did not immediately return calls seeking comment.

The commercials from the $405,000 ad buy are set to air over the next week.

The PAC has already spent $800K building up incumbent Joe Walsh. Subscribers know the results.

The original ad is here.

* Meanwhile, Duckworth might want to use this Joe Klein interview against Walsh ASAP…

[Walsh] told me, for example, that while he would oppose any budget deal that raises tax rates, he does support the complete elimination of such popular tax loopholes as the mortgage-interest and charity deductions.

The Democrats didn’t take this guy seriously two years ago and he won. They’ve been spiking the ball in the endzone for months. It’s obviously costing them.

* Related…

* 8th District candidates Tammy Duckworth, Joe Walsh go after voters at same event

* National debt top of mind for many in 8th Congressional District

* Duckworth, Walsh Race Illustrative Of Voter Fatigue With Partisan Politics

* Dold whacks at Schneider over job experience; Schneider hits back on abortion votes

* Durbin Blames Dold for Tea Party Gridlock in Congress - Illinois Senator criticizes North Shore Congressman during visit to Schneider’s office.

* Democrats unveil attack ads in suburban campaigns

* Plummer keeps focus on jobs

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Gill’s poll shows Davis closing the gap

Thursday, Oct 4, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* An August poll taken for Democratic congressional candidate David Gill had him leading Rodney Davis by six points. Gill’s latest poll has him up by just a single point…

The poll, paid for by the campaign of Democratic candidate David Gill, shows Gill with 40 percent, Republican Rodney Davis with 39 percent and independent John Hartman with 8 percent. The survey of 400 registered, likely voters was taken Sept. 26 and 27.

Gill’s tiny lead is well within the poll’s 4.9 percentage point margin of error, according to pollster Donna Victoria.

* Money may be a factor here. Gill is being outspent, which is why he may have released the poll…

A new report by the Federal Election Commission on so-called “independent” or “superPAC” spending in the race shows that $1.795 million has been devoted to the race, most of it against Gill. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce entered the race over the weekend, saying it would put $500,000 in advertising to oppose Gill. A 30-second ad posted online by the Chamber of Commerce hits Gill for his support of President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act and for a plan to raise taxes “on job creators.” […]

The DCCC is still the biggest spender in the race, having devoted $567,122 on ads attacking Davis.

But according to the Gill campaign, slightly more than $1 million has been spent either by the independent groups or by the Davis campaign on ads opposed to Gill.

If all goes well, subscribers will have their own poll results for this district tomorrow morning.

* And, no surprise, the negative ads in that district aren’t gonna stop. Retiring Congressman Tim Johnson called for a cease fire the other day. Nobody is heeding it…

Neither the Republican nor Democratic candidates has embraced the idea, and both the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee indicated they’ll continue to use attack ads in the new congressional district that runs from Champaign-Urbana southwest to the Edwardsville and Collinsville areas in southwestern Illinois.

In fact, the DCCC made a $238,669 media buy on Tuesday — the day the retiring Republican congressman made his request — for more ads opposing Republican candidate Rodney Davis of Taylorville. The DCCC now has invested $805,791 in the 13th District race, almost half of the $2 million that six separate superPACs have spent in the district since August.

“We stand by our ads,” said Haley Morris, a spokeswoman for the DCCC.

The Republican congressional PAC also indicated it would not abide by Johnson’s request. It has spent more than $330,000 on ads opposing Democrat David Gill.

“Bottom line, David Gill and his extremely partisan policies are bad for Illinois families,” said Katie Prill, a spokeswoman for the NRCC.

* Gill’s latest TV ad is about jobs and outsourcing…

* Related…

* Mud and money - A classic liberal and a traditional conservative are in a tight race for the new 13th Congressional District

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“Well-being is nice, but death is what lands in the papers”

Thursday, Oct 4, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Either this is irresponsible hyperbole to prevent lawmakers from overriding the governor’s veto of the prison budget cuts (Quinn wants to use the prison money for DCFS), or it’s a stark admission that Illinois is a failure at protecting kids. Read every, single word of these two paragraphs…

In the wake of an estimated $90 million budget cut, the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services has slashed a program that works to keep kids with their families and is shifting focus from prevention to meeting its legal obligations and simply keeping kids alive.

“We took a look at how could we minimize our risk and still maintain the level of services that we are responsible for. When I say minimize risk, I’m talking about death of children. Because that’s ultimately what the Department of Children and Family Services is responsible for, is protecting children from dying,” DCFS Director Richard Calica told a Senate committee at a Chicago hearing. He added, “Well-being is nice, but death is what lands in the papers, and death is what I’m responsible for.” Calica said the reduction means the agency would reduce services that are not required by law or consent decrees.

More…

The union and Calica urged legislators to approve supplemental spending for the agency to either eliminate or soften the blow of the cuts. Quinn has spoken out against the cuts, too. However, AFSCME opposes the funding source that he has suggested to pay for supplemental spending. Quinn is asking lawmakers to sustain his vetoes of funding to keep open several state facilities that employ AFSCME members and instead spend the money at DCFS. […]

[Calica] said that the changes at the agency are the product of the budget approved by the General Assembly. “The layoffs that you’ve been hearing about have to do with the budget that you all passed. You gave me the mandate to save $27 million. I don’t know how to save that without firing people, and I don’t know how to choose other than to choose based on the well-being of the children that I’m responsible for.”

[DCFS spokesman Kendall Marlowe] reiterated his boss’ statements about the department’s priorities, albeit in a slightly less blunt fashion. “We have core responsibilities to safety, permanency [of placement of children either back with their families or in adoptive homes] and well-being. But permanency and well-being can’t happen if a child is [not] safe. We need to protect lives. And in tight times, we still work to give children permanency and well-being, but we do have to prioritize their lives and their safety.” But both acknowledge that scaling back the intact families program could lead to more children becoming wards of the state. However, Marlowe said that he suspects it would not be a substantial increase.

Disgust.

I mean… discuss.

Actually, both.

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Morning question

Thursday, Oct 4, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Yesterday, I asked you to give me one word to describe your feelings about the upcoming presidential debate. Now that the debate is over, how about giving us one word to describe your take?

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup

Thursday, Oct 4, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Oct 4, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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