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Evening open thread

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* For Bears and Cardinals fans and preznit debate watchers. A veritable potpourri of whatever’s on your mind.

Keep it clean. And please try to avoid drive-by comments and bumper-sticker slogans.

Thanks.

  129 Comments      


Today’s number: $23 million

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Tribune

She is among 68 workers placed on continuous leave for at least one year during that period, at a total cost in salary of more than $5 million, a Tribune investigation found.

The paper found the state regularly pays employees not to work, even as it faces gaping budget gaps and service cutbacks. Between 2007 and September of this year, the 2,033 employees put on paid leave have cost the state $23 million, according to a Tribune analysis of state data.

Paid administrative leave prevents an employee from going to work — typically, during an investigation into alleged wrongdoing — and is considered a serious sanction. But there is wide leeway for supervisors to impose such an action. In one instance, the paper found, a mental health technician was put on leave for allegedly driving her car too fast in her agency’s parking lot. […]

Under union rules, most of the state’s 60,000 employees can be dismissed only for cause, meaning they must first be investigated and their future decided at a disciplinary hearing. […]

“The duration of leave and the lengthy investigative process is a problem and takes far too long,” said Anders Lindall, spokesman for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. “It’s an issue that our members and our union have raised with the state time and again through labor management discussions for years.

Discuss.

  25 Comments      


Democratic polls show five candidates leading, silent on one

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Headline changed to reflect info at bottom of post.]

* From Hotline On Call

Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., trails Democratic nominee Tammy Duckworth by double digits in his race for reelection, according to a new live-caller poll released Friday by an outside group involved in the campaign against him.

The League of Conservation Voters commissioned the survey, which shows Duckworth leading Walsh 54 percent to 39 percent in Illinois’s 8th Congressional District. President Obama leads Mitt Romney 53 percent to 41 percent in the district’s presidential vote; Obama carried the suburban Chicago seat with over 61 percent in 2008.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted the poll for LCV and surveyed 400 likely voters from Oct. 16-18. The poll’s margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points. The League of Conservation Voters recently began a mobile billboard advertising campaign against Walsh and has also done robocalls in the 8th District. […]

LCV’s poll throws cold water on the idea of a Walsh revival. More voters viewed Walsh unfavorably (44 percent) than favorably (35 percent), while Duckworth was viewed favorably by 49 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent in the poll.

* From The Hill

Physician David Gill (D) leads former Republican House staffer Rodney Davis in their race by 41 to 39 percent, according to a new poll from the pro-Democrat House Majority PAC. The two are running for a newly redrawn seat left open by Rep. Tim Johnson’s (R-Ill.) retirement.

* From the Cheri Bustos campaign…

Monday, Cheri Bustos’s campaign released a new poll showing Bustos with a 4 point lead over Congressman Bobby Schilling. The poll conducted Oct. 16-18, show Bustos ahead 49-45 and comes on the heels of 3 recent polls which showed a statistical tie.

“Our campaign continues to gain momentum as we enter the final two weeks. Voters understand that Cheri Bustos will protect Medicare and Social Security and make job creation her No.1 priority,” said Bustos Campaign Manager Allison Jaslow. “Congressman Schilling has the wrong priorities and voters are rejecting his plan to end Medicare’s guaranteed benefit”.

The campaign’s polling memo is here.

* From the House Majority PAC…

Democrat Bill Foster is leading Republican Judy Biggert by a margin of 49-45 percent in Illinois’ competitive 11th District, according to a new House Majority PAC poll.

Importantly, Foster is ahead of Biggert with independents by 10 points, 49-39 percent, and is seen more favorably by voters compared to Biggert, whose negative ratings have increased dramatically.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney 51-46 percent in this district.

An analysis memo from the polling firm, Garin-Hart-Yang Research, is available here: http://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/images/IL-11-Poll-Memo.pdf.

* The Democrats have been noticeably silent today on polling for the Bill Enyart campaign. But Plummer released some numbers late last week

Jason Plummer, the GOP nominee for the 12th U.S. House District, released the results Friday of an internal poll that showed Plummer leading Democratic nominee Bill Enyart by 5 points, or 46 to 41 percent.

Paula Bradshaw, the Green Party candidate, drew 4 percent of the vote in a poll with a margin of error of 4.9 percent, according to research conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican-leaning polling and public relations firm based in Alexandria, Va.

* Also, no numbers have yet been released by the Democrats today on 10th District candidate Brad Schneider, who is up against freshman Republican Bob Dold.

…Adding… The DCCC did some polling last week in the 10th CD and had Scheider up by a point.

…Adding More… A recent poll taken by Bob Dold showed he had a big lead

A survey completed Oct. 12 by the Dold campaign shows the North Shore Congressman with a 10 point lead

  51 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition, crosstabs, new ads, new mail and more

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Caption contest!

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A flyer posted at the Capitol Complex…

Um. OK. That’s kind of a difficult invitation to turn down. And “selling” votes? How, uh, ethical of them.

Just kidding, of course.

Caption?

  40 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Chicago Bears play the Detroit Lions tonight at 7:30 pm Central. The presidential debate starts at 8 o’clock Central.

* The Question: Da Bears or the presidents? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


  65 Comments      


Duckworth’s new TV ad slams Walsh over child support

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The mud is really starting to fly, campers

Tammy Duckworth’s campaign is also using Joe Walsh’s child support issue in its direct mail program.

The only question now is whether the ads are too little, too late. We’ll see soon enough.

* Walsh’s reaction…

In April, a suit filed against Congressman Joe Walsh for delinquent child support payments was dismissed by a judge and Congressman Walsh along with his ex-wife issued a statement that he is not and never was a “deadbeat dad”. Despite the issue being amicably resolved in private by the family, Tammy Duckworth began airing a new TV ad in addition to a mail campaign accusing Walsh of being a “deadbeat”. Congressman Walsh released the following statement:

“For Tammy Duckworth to bring up this private family matter that was resolved and dismissed is nothing short of graceless. It shows how desperate her campaign has become since polls have shown me ahead and it represents the worst in our political system. Ms. Duckworth has demonstrated she will do and say anything to win this campaign.

“Because of my children, it has always been my priority to keep this a private matter. I’ve always campaigned as an open book and have been honest with voters about my life. But for Ms. Duckworth to drag my family into this campaign by running on a case that was dismissed months ago, shows that she and her campaign have no limits to the lows they will achieve. This is Chicago machine politics at its worse, but it is what is expected from a Blago protege like Ms. Duckworth. I will not stand for it, and I call on the Duckworth campaign to stop these untrue and offensive attacks on my family.

“It’s Ms. Duckworth’s hope to distract voters from the fact she is currently being sued by two Illinois Veterans Affairs whistleblowers that she tried to fire and humiliate. I think we deserve better from our candidates than what Ms. Duckworth is resorting to in this campaign, and we deserve better from public officials than what Ms. Duckworth did to two whistleblowers when she ran the Illinois VA.”

Discuss.

* On another topic, an unusual Joe Walsh fan video

  31 Comments      


The bottom line on Fitzgerald’s new job

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Former US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald has been named a partner in the Chicago office of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom

Fitzgerald will focus on “internal corporate investigations as well as civil litigation and arbitration,” according to a law firm news release.

* Fitz said he had no interest in defending criminals

In an interview, Fitzgerald said he is not interested in defending the sort of accused criminals he once prosecuted, a line of work that many former prosecutors move into after leaving government. Rather, he said, he will focus on corporate investigations, an increasingly lucrative area for law firms.

“I’m not changing who I am,” Fitzgerald said. “I’m just changing who my client is.”

* But this is what he’ll actually be doing

Scandal is big business for the country’s biggest law firms. Companies that investigate internal wrongdoing often receive lighter penalties for cooperating with authorities.

So, he won’t help human beings charged with corruption or whatever, but he will be helping corporations avoid tougher penalties.

  19 Comments      


Media needs to get in the game

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* By far, the most unreported story of this campaign season is how various interests are getting around the state’s campaign contribution caps. I’ve written about it several times this year, but nobody else really has.

Why? I don’t know. Maybe the media is so invested in its support of the reformers that editors and reporters can’t bring themselves to cover the myriad ways that money has found a way around the caps. Maybe they just don’t care. Here’s a press release that just arrived in my e-mail in-box of another example of this stuff…

Arie Friedman’s Shadow PAC

Maximum contributors to Republican state Senate candidate Dr. Arie Friedman are beginning to shuffle money into a Friedman allied PAC to circumvent campaign contribution limits. Democratic candidate for state Senate, Julie Morrison, is calling on Friedman to close his Doctors-Patients Alliance PAC.

“Dr. Friedman should close his shadow PAC now,” Morrison said. “This is not the type of closed door, dishonest politics that the voters of the 29th District want.”

According to the State Board of Elections, The Doctors-Patients Alliance PAC was opened in May 2011 and listed Dr. Friedman as its chairman. In January, the PAC amended its filing to list Friedman campaign manager, Paul Miller, as its chairman. In just a few days, the Doctors-Patients Alliance PAC received maximum contributions from major Friedman supporters, including the self described “First and Oldest member of the Tea Party” Jack Roeser’s Otto Engineering.

In a July, 2011 web posting, Dr. Friedman even suggested that the PAC could be used to bolster his campaign. According to Dr. Friedman, “As an Illinois state political committee, DPAI will directly support state legislative candidates – maybe even me…”

The Doctors-Patients Alliance website still lists Dr. Friedman as the organization’s chairman.

* Right now, this maneuvering is only happening with legislative campaigns, but you can bet this will be a big issue in 2014, when Gov. Pat Quinn stands for reelection and the stakes are higher and the media’s attention is more focused.

Legislative races get short-shrift in the media, which is why I’ve been able to create my lovely little niche. But that doesn’t mean I like this sorry state of affairs.

Either way, it’s high time that the media started covering this issue.

  18 Comments      


It ain’t easy outside the two-party system

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

I published a poll last month showing indicted former state Rep. Derrick Smith (D-Chicago) leading third-party candidate Lance Tyson in the 10th House District race by a mind-boggling 47 percent to 9 percent.

Since then, there’s been a lot of grumbling about how Chicago voters ought to know better. After all, Smith was indicted for allegedly taking a bribe and was expelled from the House by his colleagues. It was all over the news. People should know that, for crying out loud.

At the time the poll was taken, however, Tyson hadn’t spent much, if any, money on his campaign. He isn’t a known quantity in the district. And he’s not a Democrat, at least not on the ballot.

The poll of likely voters presented a choice between Smith and Tyson and gave their party affiliations. Smith won the Democratic primary election in March, while Tyson belongs to the newly created “10th District Unity Party.”

Persuading voters to take a look at third-party or independent candidates is never easy. Go back to 1986 when members of Lyndon LaRouche’s cultish organization won some statewide Democratic primary races in Illinois.

Democrat Adlai Stevenson’s running mate was beaten by one of those candidates, and Stevenson had to form a third party to run for governor. Stevenson, who had nearly defeated Republican Gov. Jim Thompson four years earlier, got just 40 percent of the vote as the Solidarity Party candidate in 1986.

This in a year when Democrat Neil Hartigan won the attorney general’s race with 62 percent and Democrat Alan Dixon won the U.S. Senate race with 65 percent. But Stevenson’s Solidarity Party candidate for secretary of state received just 17 percent against the LaRouche Democrat’s 15 percent.

Voters are hard-wired to look at party affiliation. If you say “Democrat” or “Republican” to a voter, he or she knows what you’re talking about. If you say “10th District Unity Party” to a voter, you’ll likely get a blank stare and plenty of suspicion, especially if that candidate is completely unknown.

And the same goes for independents. Just ask Forrest Claypool, who was a well-known Cook County politician and ran as an independent candidate for county assessor two years ago. Claypool spent a pile of money, yet received just 32 percent of the vote against Democrat Joseph Berrios.

So, it should’ve been little surprise when polling last month showed that independent candidate Dee Beaubien was getting only 26 percent against Republican David McSweeney in the 52nd House District battle. Beaubien has a pretty well-known name because her late husband served in the House.

Unlike Lance Tyson, she had spent a considerable amount of money by last month. But that “independent” label was hurting her, even in an area where voters pride themselves on their independence.

Beaubien recently put $100,000 of her money into her campaign, which means that the state’s campaign contribution limits are gone in this race. Once a self-funder breaks the $100,000 mark, all caps are off.

McSweeney countered with $70,000 of his own cash, plus Jack Roeser’s Otto Engineering put $100,000 into the contest for McSweeney. It’s now a free-for-all. Well, not free, exactly.

It’s going to be a financial bloodbath if the House Democrats stay in the race, the pro-choice Personal PAC goes all in against the pro-life McSweeney and Beaubien keeps her checkbook open.

Lance Tyson, on the other hand, is still struggling to raise money. He’s reported receiving or loaning himself just $33,000 in contributions since Sept. 28.

Beaubien and Tyson really have two opponents on the ballot — their actual opponents and the legions of voters who can’t get past party labels.

Beaubien is better positioned financially to overcome both, but she’s being matched at least dollar for dollar so far by McSweeney. Tyson will have the media behind him and presumably some ground troops. But both candidates are running straight uphill because it’s hugely difficult to undo decades of voter behavior.

That doesn’t mean it’s impossible. The Rev. James Meeks ran as an independent against a Democratic incumbent and won a state Senate seat from Chicago in 2002.

But Meeks was extremely well-known in the district because his church has tens of thousands of members. He also spent more than $400,000 to win the race and got big help from some major unions and area politicians.

So it can happen. Independents and third-party candidates can win. But it’s awfully rare.

* Former Chicago Ald. Ed Smith sums up Lance Tyson’s problem

“Right now [Derrick Smith] is the only Democrat on the ballot,” Ed Smith said. “The other candidate is running under a different party. So you would have to go outside of the Democratic Party to vote for [Tyson].” […]

“If Derrick Smith was a guilty candidate, I would not be working for Derrick Smith. But he is not guilty,” Ed Smith said. “He has not had a court trail. He has not been tried by his peers. He is a qualified and bonified candidate who is on the ballot as a Democrat.”

* Meanwhile

Gov. Pat Quinn on Sunday became the latest high-profile Illinois Democrat to back the candidate running against expelled state Rep. Derrick Smith.

Quinn and Secretary of State Jesse White — who was once a Smith supporter — appeared at a news conference on the city’s West Side to back Chicago attorney Lance Tyson, a candidate chosen by Democrats after Smith was indicted on federal bribery charges and refused to step down.

“When we elect someone to office they must have an ethic of service, and that’s what Lance Tyson is all about,” Quinn said at the event held at a senior center. […]

Speaking to a crowd of about 50 people Sunday, Tyson called himself “the real Democrat” in the race. He said the nation is watching to see whether voters in a state known for political corruption will “step up” for character and integrity.

“I have faith, and I believe that all the other Democrats have faith we’re going to do the right thing here,” Tyson said.

* Ben Joravsky got a call from someone who claimed that former Rep. Smith had campaigned at his door...

“You’ll never guess who just showed up at my house,” Johnny said.

“Michael Jordan?” I said.

“No, Derrick Smith.”

Pause.

“I don’t believe you,” I said.

“It’s true. About 15 minutes ago—he rang the doorbell and everything.”

“You mean, the guy’s actually campaigning?”

“I’m telling you—he’s going door to door, up and down the block.”

“Did you ask him why he hasn’t called me back?”

“No, but I told him, ‘You about to go to jail, man.’ He told me, ‘I didn’t do nothing.’ I said, ‘I heard they caught you on tape.’ And he said, ‘They didn’t catch me doing nothing, man.’ That’s not a bad campaign slogan, when you think about it.”

“What?”

“‘They didn’t catch me doing nothing, man.’ He should put it on his billboards.”

* And Cal Skinner has been documenting House Speaker Michael Madigan’s support for Dee Beaubien. Ms. Beaubien not only has to fight the problems associated with being an independent, she also has to deal with the fact that her “independent” candidacy is backed by the House Democratic machine

Dee Beaubien Contributions from Democratic organizations and special interests through October 18, 2012:

    * Friends of Michael J. Madigan – $66,000
    * Lou Lang – $5,500
    * Barbara Flynn Currie – $1,500
    * Democratic Party of Illinois – $150,771.51
    * Democratic Majority – $89,171.80
    * Personal PAC – $106,223.59
    * Planned Parenthood – $500
    * Equality Illinois – $418
    * Fred Eychaner $5,000.00
    * Labor PACs $50,750.00

Total – $475,834.90

Discuss.

  18 Comments      


Poll: Jackson still has strong majority, most voters “happy” with ballot choices

Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Many news reports on Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr.’s mysterious disappearance have included comments from constituents about their supreme frustration with their US Rep. But a new We Ask America poll found that he still has a strong majority of support

Keep in mind when reading these numbers that Jackson’s new remapped district is much less African-American than his old district. It’s 53.8 percent African-American, compared to 67.7 percent under the old map.

Also, Marcus Lucas is a write-in candidate. I’m not sure he’ll end up with that many votes come election day. Oops. Got my candidates mixed up. Lucas is on the ballot. Sorry.

* Respondents were then asked “Do you AGREE or DISAGREE with this statement: ‘I am happy with the congressional candidates on the ballot. I do not wish someone else was running instead.’” The results

* From the pollster

Clearly, Jackson enjoys the support of the voters he represents, and perhaps its time for those who continue to express incredulity to get over it. Jesse Jackson Jr. is safe at home.

* Meanwhile, in other Jackson news

U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Ill., who is dealing with mental health issues, will return to the Mayo Clinic “soon” for further care, his father said Sunday.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. told the Chicago Tribune his son would go to the clinic Rochester, Minn., for re-evaluation and to seek to “regain his equilibrium.” The newspaper said a source close to congressman said he would head to the Mayo early this week, but the elder Jackson said it would not happen Sunday. […]

The elder Jackson said his son had been seeing doctors daily in Washington since leaving the clinic early last month as he attempted to return to work while dealing with his health issues, the newspaper said.

The father said his son’s condition does not lend itself to an “artificial schedule.”

* And Jackson has paid for a robocall to his constituents

Embattled United States Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. says he’s “anxious to return to work,” but gave no timeline for ending his months-long medical leave from Congress, instead asking for constituents’ “patience” in a 90-second automated call sent out to his south suburban 2nd Congressional District Saturday.

In the robocall, first reported by WBEZ and confirmed by a Jackson family spokesman, the congressman explains he’s been undergoing medical treatment to address “several serious health issues.”

“Like many human beings, a series of events came together in my life at the same time and they’ve been difficult to sort through,” said Jackson, who has been on leave since June and is reportedly also dealing with legal and personal problems.

“I am human. I’m doing my best. And I’m trying to sort through them all,” Jackson said.

* The robocall

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Monday, Oct 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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