Poll: Halvorson leads, but can be beat
Tuesday, Jan 15, 2013
* A poll taken for state Sen. Toi Hutchinson’s campaign shows her in the “top tier” with former Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson in the 2nd Congressional District special primary.
The poll, conducted January 8-10 of 400 likely voters by Normington-Petts with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points, has Halvorson leading the crowded field with 16 percent to Hutchinson’s 12 percent. That’s a significant lead, but within the margin of error.
Robin Kelly comes in third, with 8 percent (basically right on the MoE), followed by freshman state Sen. Napoleon Harris and former Congressman Mel Reynolds at 7 percent. Ald. Anthony Beale is at 5 percent and everyone else in the 11-person field garners a grand total of 5 percent. So, about 40 percent are undecided.
Sen. Hutchinson is getting 37 percent of the vote in her Senate District, according to the poll, which is the most solid geographic base of any of the candidates. Sen. Harris’ district is completely within the 2nd CD, but he’s pretty new at this and does not perform as well as Hutchinson.
After a brief “informed vote” round (race, occupation, etc.), Hutchinson moves into the lead with 22 percent, to Halvorson’s 16. Kelly is in third at 13, Harris is in fourth at 10, Beale gets 7 and Reynolds snags 4.
* A poll taken last November for Cook County Board president Toni Preckwinkle had Halvorson in the mid twenties with Hutchinson at about 20. The other candidates scored between 6 and 11 percent in that poll. Hutchinson and Halvorson tightened up considerably after the “informed vote” round in that poll.
* The take-away here is that Halvorson may need to do more than just sit on her name ID and hope that white people get her the nomination. She may have to raise some money and actually run a decent campaign to win. Hutchinson is actively raising money, as is Kelly, and Harris has a personal stash of cash from his NFL career.
It would be smart to see where the local elections are in the south suburbs. That’ll give us an indication of where turnout might be higher. The highest undecideds are in Chicago, according to the Hutchinson poll, indicating that turnout there will be very low.