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Another look at Lisa Madigan’s numbers

Monday, Apr 8, 2013

* A good friend sent me an e-mail about Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s fundraising report for the first quarter. Yes, she did outdo Gov. Pat Quinn by quite a bit, but my friend reminded me “she’s playing a longer game now than just him.”

First, he pointed to Rod Blagojevich’s D2 for the first six months of 2005, the same period we’re in now ahead of the 2014 race. Blagojevich started the period with $10 million and raised $4.6 million. As my friend points out, that averages $2.3 million a quarter and $773K per month.

By contrast, Madigan had $3.6 million in the bank at the end of last year and has disclosed raising about $770K so far this year.

* He also pointed to Scott Kennedy’s quite comprehensive web page which totals campaign contributions by race for the past several years.

After transfers between funds are calculated, Quinn spent about $38 million on his 2010 primary and general elections combined. From my friend…

A governor’s race costs $30 million in this state, minimum.

So, her $4.3 million on hand is way, way behind. She’s going to need to blow open the caps or a superpac needs to do the dirty work for her.

Otherwise, her floor is 4 million dollars a quarter going forward.

* Then again, at this same point in the cycle in 2009, Gov. Quinn had a mere $82K in the bank to start and raised just $860K during the entire first six months of the year. And yet Quinn still outraised Blagojevich when push came to shove.

In other words, money comes in when money is needed, so there’s plenty of time for both candidates to raise cash.

* Meanwhile, this is kinda fascinating

In the wake of President Barack Obama apologizing to California Attorney General Kamala Harris for complimenting her on her good looks comes this blockbuster finding from a new study: when it comes to a female candidate, any media coverage about her appearance–even positive–hurts her with voters.

That’s a key conclusion of the poll for the Women’s Media Center and She Should Run, to be released Monday in Chicago at the Council on Foundations annual conference at the Hilton Chicago, 720 S. Michigan.

The survey’s release is timely because Obama’s remark about Harris is the latest in the long-running struggle of women seeking public office, not to have their looks influence how people assess their credibility. […]

The “Name It. Change It” survey, conducted by Celinda Lake of Lake Research and Robert Carpenter of Chesapeake Beach Consulting found that when any media coverage focuses on a female contender’s appearance–positive, negative, or neutral–”it made voters less likely to vote for her.”

The survey can be found here.

* Related…

* Lisa Madigan leads Quinn in big-dollar fundraising

* Rauner’s love/hate relationship with pension funds

* Dan Rutherford Gets A Haircut

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Empty Chair - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 9:24 am:

    Anyone notice that there was not a lot of DC money on her A-1s? What happened to that big trip to DC where she supposedly hit up big $ PACs?

  2. - RNUG Fan - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 9:30 am:

    If democrats think they can buy peace with the Koch/Civic Club types-well forget it. It would be hard for these guys to go after our downstate repubs . If they did I would encourage them to just go Ind with Union support
    Willy the nihilists are not going to listen to you sadly

  3. - walkinfool - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 9:37 am:

    Personal attractiveness is worth a few votes, and generally helps one get promoted in business, regardless of what people might say about it.

    Rauner’s earning a significant portion of his wealth from managing public pension funds is interesting. It reminds me of Ross Perot, who criticized government spending, without acknowledging that he made most of his own fortune on government contracts.

  4. - cassandra - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 9:41 am:

    Quinn also has the (perfectly legal) advantage of using state monies to fund initiatives which will enhance his chances. I expect to see a lot of that in both the upcoming budget and the following one, “fiscal crisis or no.” It’s a multi-million dollar advantage for incumbents.

  5. - wordslinger - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 9:41 am:

    The money will be there for the Dem nominee. None of the prospective GOP nominees are going to scare off donors.

    I’d imagine, though, at some time soon, donors to Madigan would like to know what office she’s going for.

    There’s a world of difference between a slam-dunk, no-primary AGs race and a challenge to incumbent governor of your own party.

  6. - Dan Bureaucrat - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 9:53 am:

    Quinn should not be underestimated. He is a relentless campaigner and a very likeable person.

    Anyway, you just provided the roadmap for beating Lisa Madigan. Expect opponents to start complimenting her beauty!

  7. - shore - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 9:57 am:

    Empty she is not well known nationally at all and while she’s been in statewide office for a long time, there’s nothing memorable that sticks with her on any sort of issues. Suburbanites think of her father’s work when they think of her a lot more than they think of anything she’s done and nationally she’s just not identified with any sort of issues.

    Rutherford got a full page 2, not 2 page, in this months JUF newsmagazine which goes to about 40,000 families in the chicagoland jewish community and more than a few major donors who write bigtime checks. He’s worked a lot of these communities very very hard under the radar and while I think he’s a goof and stale bread as Kass called him, he’s put in the time.

  8. - Norseman - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 10:07 am:

    I have no doubts that if Lisa commits, there will be plenty of money flowing into her campaign. She’s capable of getting the money in her own right and daddy will help as well.

  9. - Truthteller - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 10:07 am:

    Quinn received a lot of six figure donations in 2010. They won’t be there this time around.

  10. - The Captain - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 10:12 am:

    Can someone explain to me why the Lisa Madigan campaign in 2010 spent $4.8 million to win by 33 points against a guy who spent $29k?

  11. - soccermom - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 10:16 am:

    Scott Kennedy is incredible. I am sure he could recite all these numbers from memory.

  12. - Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 10:18 am:

    ===They won’t be there this time around. ===

    Only if you believe the caps will not be breached. I think there’s a very good chance they will be.

  13. - Sun - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 10:32 am:

    If 4.3 million is “way, way behind” what’s that make everyone else?

  14. - Darienite - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 10:35 am:

    “Personal attractiveness is worth a few votes, and generally helps one get promoted in business, regardless of what people might say about it.”
    So if Hillary runs in ‘16, what will people talk about, her foreign expertise or her pantsuits? It’s probably a reason why Lisa has tried not to draw attention to herself - think MJM had any advise for her?

  15. - soccermom - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 11:13 am:

    My favorite part of the Lisa Fundraising story was this headline in “related stories:

    The next election already: Bill Daley serious about running…
    November 8, 2012

    Those guys at the Trib are HILARIOUS

  16. - Shore - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 11:20 am:

    A lot of smart people around the country who know democratic politics and lisa madigan will point to this


    and say that she’s overrated compared to other female candidates considering running for Governor. What she failed to understand in 2010 is that this state has reached a point with her father that the name is just too tied to failure and the problems of the state to make her the candidate the media thinks she is. Nothing is forever.

  17. - Empty Chair - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 11:31 am:

    ===Only if you believe the caps will not be breached. I think there’s a very good chance they will be.===

    Operatives in more than one campaign are planning on them being breached, one way or another.

  18. - us436 - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 12:19 pm:

    As an aside, it’s worth noting that by this time in 2005, Rod had been a sitting governor for four years who was free to raise money without any limit on the amount or source (and he apparently wasn’t too encumbered by personal ethical concerns). Lisa has the advantages of being a statewide officeholder and her connection to her father (no small thing), but it’s not the same kind of landscape as 2005. Of course, all these limits and such won’t make much difference when — as most people expect — the caps will be breached and it’s no holds barred.

  19. - us436 - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    === by this time in 2005, Rod had been a sitting governor for four years ===

    Sorry, make that two years (though who knows how long he actually THOUGHT he was Governor.)

  20. - qcexaminer - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 1:07 pm:

    “Only if you believe the caps will not be breached. I think there’s a very good chance they will be.”

    Well yeah, since this was just another Dem Potemkin “reform”. It is a guarantee that any “reform” in Illinois will have loopholes so big a Teamster could drive his Mack truck through them.

    I predict these same Mack truck loopholes will be contained in any pension “reform” bill.

    This is just a fact with Illinois government. “Reforms” are made so that politicians can prance and preen before their electorate, but that said “reforms” secretly reward either themselves or their powerful constituencies.

    It’s Illinois Politics 101 baby—or maybe Illinois Politics lol.

  21. - jake - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 1:25 pm:

    Comparison to Blagojevich is not relevant, because in 2005 Blagojevich was shaking down big time people doing business with the State. That avenue is not open to Lisa Madigan. And before you say that Mike could do it on her behalf, nobody–Mike Madigan included–ever did it on the scale Blagojevich did. It is also much harder to do now, with the ethics laws that were passed a couple of years ago, in reaction to the Blagojevich excesses.

  22. - Anon - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 3:22 pm:

    I heard Scott Kennedy has been herding alpacas since 2007. Nice website. I guess the alpaca thing was lucrative.

  23. - RNUG - Monday, Apr 8, 13 @ 9:29 pm:

    jake @ 1:25 pm:

    A couple of the former GOP govs knew how to really shake the cash trees while keeping it under the covers. The public images did not necessarily match the back room operations.

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