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Question of the day

Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013

* Treasurer Dan Rutherford believes that Bill Daley’s decision to drop out of the governor’s race helps Gov. Pat Quinn

“Without having to contest a primary, he won’t be spending as much money, so he’ll be able to reserve his funds. For those of us that are in a contested primary, we’ll need to use our funds and replenish to get ready for the General Election, so that’s an advantage for him,” Rutherford said.

* Ed Morrissey at Hot Air believes the same

Daley had the money and the organization to force Quinn to spend a lot of money and effort in the primary, leaving him weaker in the general election.

* There was a debate about this in comments last night as well. Some believed that Daley’s move benefits the Republican Party for an obvious reason

Of course it helps the GOP.

You just guaranteed that you will be facing an incumbent with perhaps the lowest approval rating in the country while presiding over the 50th worst unemployment rate in America.

Short term? It would have been nice to have Daley beat up Quinn for a while and force him to spend cash.

Long term? You would much rather face Quinn than Daley or just about anyone else. Even with his reputation as a strong closer.

Plus, every GOP contender just got themselves a nice punching bag. If you don’t want to bloody the party, you pile on and bloody your common enemy. This may actually serve to unite the candidates a bit (not completely, but a bit) by focusing them on a single opponent.

* The Question: Does Bill Daley’s exit help or hurt the Republican Party’s chances? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


survey service

- Posted by Rich Miller        


69 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:18 am:

    I think it hurts, but not a ton… Spending time an talent to fight Bill would have not been a net positive.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:19 am:

    Me, yesterday …

    ===Some realities….

    Quinn, today, and “player to be named later”,no primary.

    Lisa, no Primary, no General opponent.

    Jesse, no Primary, no General opponent.

    Sheila Simon, takes on Topinka, arguably the most popular Repubican in Illinois, and gets no Primary but after turning on Quinn, no one is losing sleep if Topinka takes Sheila out.

    Frerichs gets no Primary and gets … either a campaign run by Jason Plummer, or a Campaign run by Senior HGOP operative for Tom Cross.

    This is happening my Slytherin House Republican friends. All the above, are, today, going to be raising dollars, and avoiding conflict to get past March and beyond.

    Daley gave the opportunity for Slytherin House Republicans to “take it to” the ILGOP, like a Bill Daley, or the Dem Treasurer’s race…

    Now, Bill Daley has made the slating a reality that can lead to money issues for the GOP, and another chance for Pat Quinn to outlast Brady …Dillard …Rauner …Rutherford … as the top of the ticket in ILGOP refuses to understand the problem Rauner brings, and the opportunity for the 3 to attack Rauner and build GOP Unity around the idea that Rauner is what is wrong with Illinois, and while we 3 disagree, we all agree that Bruce Rauner, like Bill Daley,is what is wrong with Illinois.

    The ILDems love them a sorting, we in the ILGOP, we love us a dividing.

    Big difference.===

    Further,

    ===A year, is a LONG time for an incumbent to get over bad numbers, organize, define his opponent, who just was defined in a heated Primary win, and cobble a coalition OPPOSED to the idea that whomever the GOP gets the Nomination, they will be “worse for you than me.”

    Seen that movie before, actually saw it 4 years ago.

    Further,

    The sad truth in a REPUBLICAN Primary, especially in the ILGOP in the past few cycles, its about “firing Madigan” and who is more “pure” and not about winning on the idea that Pat Quinn is what is wrong, himself.

    That movie ends bad too, “firing Madigan” with Counties thinking they vote and Veto=Proofed Houses of the General Assembly.

    Bill Daley’s departure, today, allows the ILDems to regroup, build their narrative with time, the most precious commodity behind money, on their side …

    While the ILGOP, and the 4 potential Nominees worried about who is can beat who in march, and not about who can win it all, without tarnishing themselves or the other 3 in the meantime.===

    Big time hurt …

    Little “upside”.


  3. - Very Old Soil - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:19 am:

    I voted “help” assuming that the Republicans will nominate someone like Brady again


  4. - Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:19 am:

    On balance, of course it hurts more than it helps. The GOP should want Gov. Quinn spending money, time and energy fighting a vigorous primary opponent who would take it to Quinn while they are fighting their own primary battles. Granted, Daley was not the guy to take on that role, but they are better off if someone does. Facing off against Quinn in the general didn’t go so hot last time…


  5. - WhoKnew - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:20 am:

    Voted for HELP - which is what the ILGOP needs.

    If they can’t rally enough to beat Quinn, then I say give it up!


  6. - Bill White - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:21 am:

    If the IL GOP goal truly was to defeat Pat Quinn, why is there a 4 way contested primary?

    Whoever wins in March 2014 will learn that tacking to the center on issues such as reproductive health doesn’t work.

    Triangulating a woman’s right to control her own health care will merely annoy BOTH sides on that issue.


  7. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:22 am:

    The only correct answer is “hurt”
    Without BankerBilly explaining how he blew the Gore campaign and gave a decade of Bush wars, Wall street disasters and JP Morgan scams; CousinBrucey and the rest of the clown car crowd will be out there debating, yelling & screaming and getting their hands slammed in the door 24-7.
    Of course, COusinBrucey will be secretly funding black bag commercials to trash his opponents. The end result will be none emerge electable in November and even Topinka endorses PQ to save her hide.


  8. - one of the 35 - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:30 am:

    I agree that the lack of an opponent in the primary is an economic plus for any candidate. Even for Quinn.


  9. - MrJM - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:31 am:

    The Republican candidates will spend the next few months appealing to GOP primary voters with statements and positions that will alienate general election voters.

    Meanwhile, Quinn gets to raise money and shore-up his base.

    Hurt.

    – MrJM


  10. - Cassandra - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:33 am:

    I said no difference because Daley was always a weak candidate on a number of fronts. He may well have skills, in fact, I believe he’s quite bright, but his skills aren’t in politicking.


  11. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:35 am:

    Hurts, but I’m not sure how much. Daley was never going to be the nominee.

    I don’t see how Quinn not having to spend money helps in any way.


  12. - Mason born - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:35 am:

    Unfortunately this helps PQ and hurts Repubs. To my thinking there are people out there that would like to get rid of PQ however they are Democrats first candidate second. Now they have to vote for a Repub, which in their mind is akin to voting for satan, or PQ. Disgruntled partisan Dems really have nowhere to go now.

    Some independents will flock to GOP primary now to show their dissatisfaction but they will be offset by Dems who have no candidate to vote for and can vote for the least likely to win GOP candidate.

    The real loser will be the State of IL saddled with 4 more years of incompetent leadership in Gov.’s office.


  13. - suburban viewpoint - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:37 am:

    No brainer, it hurts the Republicans. Quinn will sit back, let the economy start to heal, and claim credit. Unions and money-constituencies (trial lawyers, etc.) will also start to fall in line as his stature and chances increase. And if pension deal is struck, that helps Quinn….going back to Daley, the guy is simply tone-deaf. Perhaps Quinn was lucky to have him as a foil in the race…


  14. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:41 am:

    Remeber it costs TWO Dollars for every One Dollar spent in a Primary;

    One dollar to get through the Primary, the other dollar to get through the General.

    The ENTIRE Dem Slate - Quinn, Lisa, Jesse, Sheila, Frerichs have none of those worries, and they are going to be waiting, and building their narratives off the GOP Guv Primary, with all the money they sock away to take out as many GOP Nominees as they can.

    If someone ever decides to run against Lisa or Jesse I mean …

    It hurts, make no mistake.


  15. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:41 am:

    –Now they have to vote for a Repub, which in their mind is akin to voting for satan, or PQ. Disgruntled partisan Dems really have nowhere to go now.–

    That’s just silly. Thompson, Edgar and Ryan needed Democratic votes to win. Reagan won Illinois twice with lots of Democratic votes.


  16. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:44 am:

    Today, I said hurt.

    The lack of a bruising battle is going to help Quinn.

    Yesterday, before Daley’s announcement showed us the “enormity” of Daley’s character, I would have said the opposite. I thought Daley had a chance to wage a successful campaign about Quinn’s failures and then position himself as a run of the mill Democrat in a very blue state, which would have been enough to win in November.

    And Daley could have, except for enormity thing.


  17. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:46 am:

    ===Now they have to vote for a Repub, which in their mind is akin to voting for satan,…===

    In reality, both the Dems and the GOP need to curry favor with the Indies and with voters from the other party since neither the GOP or the Dems are at 50% + 1 in voter identification, and no party has yet to vote 100% of their ID’d voters, and got them all to vote 100% straight party, period.

    It is up to the GOP to make the arguement to get 50% + 1, and you do that by being inclusive, not by winning Primary Battles based on the winning strategy of “Purity”, and taking that … to win a General Election.


  18. - Been There - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:46 am:

    I think this question should have said is Quinn better off without a primary? Of course if he would have lost a primary he wouldn’t be better off but if there was one and he won? I definitely think if he went through a nasty costly primary that the GOP would be better off. But again that is if he won. If Daley had won, the GOP would be worse off. I guess you need to have the crystal ball to know who would have won the Dem primary before you have a definitive answer to the question.
    Another thought, will any of Daley’s financial backers move over to the GOP?


  19. - suburban viewpoint - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:47 am:

    Btw, does anyone know what Daley’s going to do with his campaign cash?…Cynical all the way around, especially with any folks he hired recently who are left in the cold. Unless they were all in on the joke…


  20. - Norseman - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:47 am:

    I voted hurt to help lull Quinn into not noticing the surging support for Oswego Willy’s gubernatorial stealth campaign.


  21. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:53 am:

    –Another thought, will any of Daley’s financial backers move over to the GOP?–

    Some of them are already there. See Rauner, Bruce.


  22. - Shore - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:55 am:

    Daley was going to show independent democrats/ex moderate republicans/democrats who want to send a message to quinn what was wrong with quinn and why there’s a need for a change. I didn’t think he would win, but I thought he would do a lot of the Republican parties work for it with the people it usually alienates because to a lot of folks daleys are still seen as reasonable and a brand they at least know.

    Now quinn can consolidate his base, focus on reaching out, hoard cash and prepare for an onslaught. If Daley really wanted to see change he should have hung in there and done what some primary challengers have done to favorites in the past + laid a path for the other party to beat them.


  23. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:56 am:

    It hurts. The media spotlight is now solely focused on the GOP candidates, which can’t be good for them at all. Sort of like the GOP Presidential primary in 2012, with Rauner (Romney), Santorum (Brady) and Gingrich (Dillard) spouting utter nonsense to the lunatic fringe of the party. Whoever emerges from the GOP primary will be hard pressed to erase all of the dumb things they’ll say over the next several months.

    Quinn-Daley would have drawn enormous media attention away from the GOP squabbles. Now they’ll be making the wrong kind of headlines while Quinn sits back and hordes his cash. More attention is not going to help the GOP.


  24. - bored now - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:56 am:

    it hurts, but how much depends on how feisty the republican becomes. if the republican primary gets really divisive (which it could, given the belief that whoever wins the republican primary will be governor), then it could also divide the electorate. but the time between the primary and the general gives a lot of time to heal and recover…


  25. - dave - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:57 am:

    There is no question that this hurts the Republicans and helps Quinn.

    1 - Few people actually saw a real path to a Daley primary victory, so even if you thought that Daley was the better option, it wasn’t a likely scenario.

    2 - Quinn saves money. Money is obviously very important, especially when Bruce Rauner is rumored to be willing to spend $50M of his own money (if he makes it out of the primary).

    3 - Quinn escapes without being beat up by his own party more than he already has. This is hugely important.

    I don’t see any way that this helps the Republicans.


  26. - Tim Elenz - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:58 am:

    Really ? Probably got into the race to help the ultimate winner next November. If Attn. General had run Daley would have been a great attack dog and would have bloodied up both the Gov and her. He could have made it very easy for the Republican nominee in November. The Gov has virtually no money and has little chance of competing against the Republican nominee. Didn’t Blago raise 25 million and that was a record? 50 million dollars is a lot of money to put into one’s campaign. The Democrats are more then likely focusing on the house and senate seats and probably wouldn’t mind a business savvy Gov even a Republican.A Republican would keep the Coke Brothers and other outside PAC money from meddling in their affairs. I mean really can the Gov get any lower then he is in the polls? Daley staying in could do nothing but raise the Gov’s popularity. The Gov is at the lowest he could possibly be. He can only go up with a Democratic challenger. Beware perception and really are usually two different things.I don’t know but if I worked for you and you made me 16 million dollars in 2 years………..I might not be able to get people to switch the party they vote for but I might have a way to minimize GOTV. Maybe the end will come from within?


  27. - Loop Lady - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 10:59 am:

    I voted that it makes no difference.

    The only Repub Gub candidate that isn’t a right winger is Dillard, and he has so far run a mediocre campaign. He would be the only GOPer to take away a substantial number of votes from Quinn, and he will never win the Primary because he is too moderate for todays IL GOP.

    Quinn’s organization is breathing a sigh of releif I am sure, and I still think Daley was put up to this candidacy by someone trying to narrow the Dem field for Governor, and no way in hell is Rahn happy about Bill dropping out.

    Oh, to be a fly on the wall in Lisa Madigan’s office right now…


  28. - Mason born - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:03 am:

    @Word

    I didn’t say that every Democrat thinks voting for a repub=Satan. what i said is there is a contingent out there that believes that you have to vote for a Democrat no matter what. I know this as i married into a family like that. It doesn’t matter who runs they will vote for the Dem every time. I spoke to my father-in-law who has said for the last 3 yrs we need to get rid of Quinn. He will be voting for Quinn because he won’t vote for a repub.

    I know that isn’t a majority of Dems statewide. However there are people on both sides that seem to see politics as a hometown football game my team or their team doesn’t matter who is actually running.

    As OW said you have to sell your ideas that core group who sees it as my team D and my team R can’t carry the day. If you don’t buy it look at yesterdays comments with people talking about voting for the worst R candidate to be sure the D wins. Isn’t common sense to vote for the best candidate from either party? And if one candidate is already chosen shouldn’t you vote for the best candidate on the other side in case that side wins?


  29. - Lakewood-Balmoral - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:06 am:

    It doesn’t matter.

    What matters is who the Republicans elect for the general. If the Republican Party elects someone the Democrats can paint as “crazy” and “extreme” and “out of touch” then the Republicans will lose.


  30. - Just Me - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:08 am:

    Quinn can focus on raising money instead of on spending money.


  31. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:08 am:

    I don’t think it matters much. It might hurt the GOP candidates but they are underdogs anyway so hurt some or hurt alot it doesn’t matter.

    Folks in this state voted for RB to be re-elected even tho they knew he was headed for big trouble. They may not approve of Quinn right now but when they are about the pull the lever they will vote the party ticket. It’s ingrained.

    Now, if JBT were to jump into the fray…….


  32. - Been There - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:12 am:

    ===he will never win the Primary because he is too moderate for todays IL GOP.===
    I’ve been thinking about this since Kirk started moving to the right. Why? If the other 3 he is running against are going after the same pie there has to be at least enough more moderate repubs to get up to 30%. Right? I haven’t analyzed their primaries enough but I would think someone would swim in a different direction if there are 3 already swimming with the tea party.


  33. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:13 am:

    –The only Repub Gub candidate that isn’t a right winger is Dillard, –

    You might want to re-examine their records, particularly Sen. ALEC.


  34. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:17 am:

    - Norseman -,

    At this rate, we might need that 4th cubicle, and here I thought a phone booth might be too roomy!

    To the Question,

    - 47th Ward - is Spot On.

    The media is going to focus on the GOP Guv’s race far more with Daley-Quinn off the Docket.

    Every “Right” pandering, every word that puts the GOP in a non-inclusive light to win the Primary is going to be seen, since its “the only game in town”.

    Rauner is going to use his money to attack Quinn, and to attack Republicans… everyone is a target, and being divisive is the call of the day.

    Dillard and Brady will have to tact “Right”, Rutherford and “Dan Kim” are going to try to get Chicago/Cook to turn, hopefully with a Ground Game for their sakes.

    It will… get nasty.

    It will… get dirty.

    Pat Quinn and the Illinois Democratic Party will stay above it, Sen. Durbin will help out where he can… and My Party’s “Purity” will be in contrast… and in contrast in the Media from January until March… which can lead to negatives lingering from the first day as the newly minted Nominee, until November.

    That bright light shines, and when it has but one target, it gets hotter, and brighter, and broader, and sharper …


  35. - Veritas - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:30 am:

    It helps Dillard and Rutherford as they are each capable in their own rights of beating Quinn and forging coalitions, as both are liked and respected on both sides of the aisle. In fact, Rutherford has already outpolled Quinn once by getting 65,000 more votes in 2010.
    It’s not good for the faux Republican Rauner as the Dems. have just repudiated another wealthy “outsider”. Rauner would be well advised to leave the palying ground today. He will not win a populist war in Illinois - he can only subject himself to humiliation which he richly deserves. The issue in 2014 will be “who can get something done” and Quinn has failed miserably in that regard. Either Dillard or Rutherford win that battle.


  36. - reformer - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:35 am:

    Willie makes a persuasive case that this cycle is not lining up to be a good one for the GOP. It would’ve helped the Republican nominee if Quinn emerged battered and broke with a divided party. Now the Dems will be united and have a strong ticket, except for comptroller.


  37. - RetiredStateEmployee - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:36 am:

    I voted help only if the republicans can run a reasonable candidate. I see no reason to have Quinn for another 4 years.


  38. - Darienite - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:38 am:

    I voted “Makes no difference”. Can the GOP unite the day after the primary and support whoever the nominee is? If they act like they did in 2010, Quinn will win the general in a cakewalk.


  39. - Bill White - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:39 am:

    If you polled regular Illinois Review readers, I’d betcha they’d say JBT already is a Democrat.


  40. - Loop Lady - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:40 am:

    Word: please enlighten me/us…


  41. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:47 am:

    - reformer -,

    When Sheila left Quinn, she sealed her fate. Simon has no one to blame for this but herself.

    To the Post,

    Yesterday, Rauner tried to get ahead of this.

    Why?

    It wasn’t to tout that Big Bad Bill Daley is out, as he would like us all to believe. It is to continue his narrative on EVERYONE, Quinn included, that everyone is ruining everything, and he, Payton Prep Clouter Bruce Rauner, is here to save us all.

    Reasonable, right?

    You have to feel that the Rauner Camp sees how Quinn took the “fight” to Daley on the “Banking” and the “Money” and all the things others can hang on Rauner.

    So …

    Keep the narrative off the Daley’s negatives, especially the negatives Rauner shares.

    What is sad, is that we are all watching ALL this happen, and no one is taking the “fight” to Rauner, as Pat Quinn, the “street fighting Pol” took it to Daley, and Quinn just used good “politics” to out-manuver a Daley, when it could be easier to out-manuever a Payton Prep Clouter.

    Got to call it though, good “strategy” on Rauner’s Crew’s part, getting ahead of the narrative that can sink them when it rears its ugly head.


  42. - siriusly - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 11:56 am:

    I know Daley had money, but I saw very little evidence that he had any sort of organization besides Mayor Rahm.


  43. - A guy... - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 12:05 pm:

    It helps one race, the General Election for Governor. It hurts the down ballot races. Especially GA and Senate and certain County Board races.


  44. - Veritas - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 12:17 pm:

    Rauner is further hurt by Daley’s exit in that his “cause du jour”, term limits, was proposed by Quinn first and Quinn’s Achilles Heel - that he can’t even form a consensus within his own party - is mitigated by Rauner’s attacks on BOTH parties. Quinn vs. Rauner would be a battle of wits between two unarmed opponents!


  45. - veritas - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 12:31 pm:

    No Dem. primary race hurts the GOP candidate. The less the voters hear from Quinn, the more likely they are to vote for him.


  46. - Louis G. Atsaves - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 12:38 pm:

    I think it helps. When Quinn has an opponent his messages suddenly get more focused and his campaign attacks on his opponents also get focused.

    Now he will be adrift in miscellaneous press conferences while the media will give the GOP candidates free press. And he will hate being out of the spotlight while the four pound on him, presenting a united front about the record of the current governor.

    I expect the four to snipe at each other, but I don’t see them abandoning their unified front against Quinn.


  47. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 12:48 pm:

    - Louis G. Atsaves -,

    With respect, you do remember 2010, I am sure, and I am also sure you are actively following this cycle too.

    Has there been less back-biting towards each of the 4 candidates? Pat Quinn had a Primary last time, and I agree, when focused, Quinn is good in a campaign, (ask the defated and “defeated” Bill Daley), but with Bruce Rauner attacking EVERYONE, and the tacting of Dillard, and the tacting of Brady, and Rutherford’s “Rutherford-ness”, these 4 can’t help themselves about making it about them and THIS race.

    And let’s be honest, are any of the 4 going to be 100% media savy the entire 5 months? No. Every mistake will be magnified. Every misspeak will be rehashed.

    Sometimes, all the “free media” you could want… is too much when you have to be “on”… all the time.

    I hear ya - Louis G. Atsaves -, but do you trust that these 4, can keep it “in the sandbox” and keep it about Quinn. I don’t know if I can trust that to be the case over 5 months, and after polling puts 3 not winning.


  48. - Realist - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 12:48 pm:

    I was going to select hurt, but then I realized that it made no difference. As much as the media will focus on economic issues, it’s the pandering to tea party social issues that the general Illinois voting population won’t be able to stomach.


  49. - Conservative Republican - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 1:03 pm:

    Hurts. A high-spending primary race would have sapped Dem funds and bloodied the winner. Now, Quinn has a (to some degree) united party, can conserve resources, and pull the last minute push done four years ago to possibly eek out a victory.


  50. - lake county democrat - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 1:13 pm:

    I don’t think it moves the needle a lot either way - the one way I think it hurts Quinn is that going through a primary makes you a better candidate in the general election (compare Obama’s debate performances early in the primaries vs. the ones against McCain in the general - then look at how poorly he did in the first debate against Romney).


  51. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 1:14 pm:

    LCD, while overall I think you’re right, so few people watch gubernatorial debates that only a horrific performance would really make much difference.


  52. - Rod - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 1:28 pm:

    I voted that it hurts Republicans and I agree with Rutherford about the fund raising issues. But more than that many of the dents that might have been inflicted on Quinn during the primary will now not be inflicted.

    Now the Republicans need to complete Governor Quinn’s victory lap by picking Rauner in the primary. While I am not thrilled at having Quinn again as our governor,I am thrilled to keep that office in Democrat hands because I truly fear the types of additional cuts a Republican administration would implement for human services and education.


  53. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 2:14 pm:

    Having contributed to a “QOTD”, I can now die a happy individual. Check that off the bucket list!

    To the post, I clearly voted “help”.

    All the money in the world won’t help Quinn if he is running against an effective, reasonable candidate. The things that would really help Quinn are creating jobs, reducing our bill backlog, effectively administrating our state systems (Department of Corrections, anyone?) and establishing better priorities for our state when it comes to specific budget cuts, among others.

    These are things that directly touch people’s lives. These are also things that would take longer than 1 year to really turn around, and things at which Quinn has clearly demonstrated incompetence. There is little reason to believe he will suddenly emerge as a bold leader with clear vision who can claim credit for massive job growth, etc.

    Plus, the GOP candidate will have plenty of money for the general. The GOP has also learned lessons from the 2010 cycle in which they bloodied each other so badly.

    The real question is, will an effective, reasonable candidate emerge from the primary? Only 2 of the 4 seem to fit that mold.

    If such a candidate emerges then yes, the GOP wins. Hands down. There is no one on earth you would rather face than Pat Quinn.

    If no, then it’s time to start over. Just go the way of the Whigs, already.


  54. - Juvenal - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 2:18 pm:

    Helps, for a very different reason.

    A uncontested primary is going to make pension reform much easier to pass, and as soon as it does Republicans might as well pack up and go home.


  55. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 2:18 pm:

    Plus, it’s a lot harder to tag Bill Daley as the source of the “problem” in a general election than it is Pat Quinn.

    If anything, Bill Daley would have run presenting himself as part of the “solution”.

    No way Pat Quinn can claim that after so many years in The Big Boy Chair. Only a challenger, whether Democrat or Republican, can claim that.

    And that is what the public desperately wants.


  56. - Dirty Red - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 2:28 pm:

    Hurts.

    Never write off Pat Quinn, who was unpopular and presided over even higher unemployment numbers in 2010 and STILL pulled it off. It kills me to say it, but this guy really knows how to win.

    Wouldn’t the Republicans have rather faced someone who showed in just a few months that he did not have the chops to be a good campaigner and whose family name comes up every time you pay $2-$3 to park in Chicago?

    I think OW paints a very clear picture as well.


  57. - Juvenal - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 2:37 pm:

    Sorry, misread the question: this hurts GOP.

    I think that having Daley out helps Rauner, but Rauner is the best opponent Pat Quinn can hope for.


  58. - jake - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 2:39 pm:

    It hurts the Republicans, because the contrast between Quinn and Daley makes Democrats appreciate some qualities in Quinn that they would otherwise take for granted, because they saw a candidate who did not have them. Quinn will never back down from a fight and he will always counterattack when attacked. This ability to continue lurching forward no matter what is thrown at him, plus being solidly a Democrat in a blue state, compensates for a lot of other faults.


  59. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 2:55 pm:

    ===The real question is, will an effective, reasonable candidate emerge from the primary? Only 2 of the 4 seem to fit that mold.

    If such a candidate emerges then yes, the GOP wins. Hands down. There is no one on earth you would rather face than Pat Quinn.

    If no, then it’s time to start over. Just go the way of the Whigs, already.===

    - FKA -

    That is the crux, isn’t it?

    While we may disagree on the hurt/help, the reality is just that when you want to get down to how this might shake out.

    I am not a pessimist, but I am a realist.

    I also can count when it comes to money.

    Only Rauner can guarantee that the piggy bank will be ful enough at the end.

    Lastly, Bruce Rauner will not let this campaign be “civil” because he can’t. Rauner is running against everyone, Democrats, Republicans, anyone in government, anyone who has “blown it” including two state Senators, and a state Treasurer.

    I get ya, and I understand Pat Quinn “wearing the jacket” for all the bad … but Quin and the Un-Primaried slate have 6 months before they need to worry about the climate of jobs, economy, pension reform … time as a positive commondity is something even money can’t measure.

    Too many variables to lead me to a “helps”, considering all the variables can all lead to a “hurts” very vividly in my mind from 2010.

    You and I agree on the crux, but it’s such a good QOTD, that even agreeing to the bottom line, leads to a different vote on the impact.


  60. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 3:02 pm:

    –If no, then it’s time to start over. Just go the way of the Whigs, already.===

    The Whigs were a national party that broke up over slavery.

    You can argue that on the national level the GOP has become dominated by the South and Plains, but there have been inroads made at the state level in some Midwestern states.

    Illinois, actually, is an outlier of Dem dominance.


  61. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 3:17 pm:

    ===The GOP has also learned lessons from the 2010 cycle in which they bloodied each other so badly.===

    That is the heart of the matter and why I disagree. I am not convinced they’ve learned any lessons from 2010. See the comment section on Illinois Review, Dillard’s lurch to the right and Brady’s Tea Party LG selection for evidence that the ILGOPs haven’t learned any lessons since 2010.

    It’s going to be a pie fight for the nomination and there won’t be any Democrats to shield them from themselves.


  62. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 3:22 pm:

    ===That is the heart of the matter and why I disagree. I am not convinced they’ve learned any lessons from 2010. See the comment section on Illinois Review, Dillard’s lurch to the right and Brady’s Tea Party LG selection for evidence that the ILGOPs haven’t learned any lessons since 2010.===

    On point, - 47th Ward -.

    As the Dem’s slate goes Primary-less. the possible/probably replay of the 2010 GOP Primary, “purity” and all, with Rauner hammering at everyone, leaves a wide open door, today, for Quinn and most of the Dem ticket… without a Primary for Quinn.

    Well said.


  63. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 3:46 pm:

    @Wordslinger - indeed they were a national party that broke up over slavery. The intent of my meaning, albeit a bit dramatic, was that if you cannot win this race then you might as well disband the party.

    Let the Tea Party go do their thing while moderate Republicans go do their own thing, and you can each settle for 20% - 30% of the vote every election while reminiscing about the days when you actually had a chance to beat Democrats as a unified party.

    If each side is so blinded by their need to feel important and in charge that they cannot work together to beat Quinn in this environment, then go play in your own individual sandboxes while telling yourselves just how important you are.


  64. - Political Neophyte - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 6:06 pm:

    This will hurt the GOP. The Dems can now keep their swords sheathed while waiting for the general election, while the Repubs battle each other on the primary battlefield. They will be out of breath from primary battle, and the Dems will ride onto the battlefield and crush them.

    Not to mention that this is Illinois, the battlefield was Blue before the GOP even shows up.

    Sorry for the cheesy metaphor! -PN


  65. - low level - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 6:37 pm:

    Hurts GOP. Although not as much as they hurt themselves as OW has masterfully analyzed for some time now.

    The real question I think is : does it hurt JKass? Once again, the guy outdid himself with his, ahem, “theories”. Or maybe the correct word is delusions?

    Kass is to reality as … Beer chicken is to a vegan in AA


  66. - Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Sep 17, 13 @ 7:37 pm:

    That was meant to read (as others above…).


  67. - Snucka - Wednesday, Sep 18, 13 @ 9:19 am:

    A Daley-Quinn primary would have been nasty and divisive. The GOP would have benefited from six months of Democratic in-fighting. Instead the Democrats get six months of fundraising and focusing on the general election. This is where the election can be won, if done right. Quinn and his team must not become complacent or waste this opportunity.


  68. - Norges Billigste Nettbutikk - Tuesday, Oct 1, 13 @ 8:20 am:

    Somebody essentially help to make significantly posts I might state.
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  69. - Rachael - Monday, Oct 7, 13 @ 10:27 am:

    I like it when folks come together and share ideas.
    Great blog, stick with it!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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